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In the mid-afternoon of 15 July 2007, during the Convective and Orographically-induced Precipitation Study (COPS), in a very warm and dry environment, an isolated, short-lived, deep convective system developed over the southern Black Forest. Most of the high-resolution, convection-permitting models involved in COPS were unable to capture this event whereas the Meso-NH forecast was quite skilful. To assess the Meso-NH performance further, the model results were carefully checked against the various and numerous COPS observations. In full agreement with clear-air radar observations, model results underlined the triggering role of a low-level convergence line that developed in the lee of the Feldberg. The main departure from the observations was found to be in the low-level moisture fields, which appeared significantly moister in the model than in the observations and also slightly moister than in the other models. Sensitivity studies showed that this departure from the observations was strongly controlled by the initial surface moisture conditions. When the surface moisture was reduced by 20% or replaced by the value derived from a different analysis, the evolution of the planetary boundary layer was more accurately represented while the storm evolution was still correctly captured. These results demonstrate that the quality of the initial forecast cannot be ascribed to the moist bias of the model. It could therefore be hypothesized that the key parameters for a satisfactory forecast of this event lie more in the ability of the model to reproduce the dynamical forcing accurately than in the characteristics of the air-mass instability. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

altitude region 0.5 –3.5 km, while comparisons between BASIL and the airborne DLR DIAL lead to a mean relative bias of 1.87% (0.018 g kg −1 ) in this same altitude region. Comparisons between the ground-based UHOH DIAL and the CNRS DIAL indicate a bias of −3.2% (−0.37 × 10 22 m −3 ) in the altitude range 1.5 –4.5 km, while comparisons between the UHOH DIAL and the DLR DIAL indicate a bias of 0.83% (0.06 × 10 22 m −3 ) in this same altitude range. Based on the available comparisons between the groundbased Raman lidar BERTHA and the CNRS DIAL, the mean relative bias is found to be −4.37% (−0.123 g kg −1 ) in the altitude region 0.5 –4.5 km. Comparisons between the ground-based IGN Raman lidar and the CNRS DIAL indicate a bias of 3.18% (0.55 g kg −1 ) in the altitude range from 0.5 to 4.5 km, while comparisons between the CNRS DIAL and DLR DIAL result in a mean relative bias of 3.93% (1.1 × 10 22 m −3 ) in the altitude interval 0.5 –4.0 km. Based on the available statistics of comparisons, benefiting from the fact that the CNRS DIAL was able to be compared with all other lidar systems, and putting equal weight on the data reliability of each instrument, overall relative values for BASIL, BERTHA, IGN Raman lidar, UHOH DIAL, DLR DIAL, and CNRS DIAL, with respect to the mean value, are found to be −0.38, −2.60, 4.90, −1.43, −2.23 and 1.72%, respectively. Copyright c

Within the framework of the international field campaign COPS (Convective and Orographically induced Precipitation Study), a large suite of state-of-the-art meteorological instrumentation was operated, partially combined for the first time. This includes networks of in situ and remote-sensing systems such as the Global Positioning System as well as a synergy of multi-wavelength passive and active remote-sensing instruments such as advanced radar and lidar systems. The COPS field phase was performed from 01 June to 31 August 2007 in a low-mountain area in southwestern Germany/eastern France covering the Vosges mountains, the Rhine valley and the Black Forest mountains. The collected dataset covers the entire evolution of convective precipitation events in complex terrain from their initiation, to their development and mature phase until their decay. Eighteen Intensive Observations Periods with 37 operation days and eight additional Special Observations Periods were performed, providing a comprehensive dataset covering different forcing conditions. In this article, an overview of the COPS scientific strategy, the field phase, and its first accomplishments is given. Highlights of the campaign are illustrated with several measurement examples. It is demonstrated that COPS research provides new insight into key processes leading to convection initiation and to the modification of precipitation by orography, in the improvement of quantitative precipitation forecasting by the assimilation of new observations, and in the performance of ensembles of convection-permitting models in complex terrain.

The benefit of assimilating high spatial and temporal resolution Global Positioning System (GPS) zenith tropospheric delay (ZTD) observations within a high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) system is evaluated during IOP 9 of the Convective and Orographically-induced Precipitation Study (COPS) campaign. In the framework of the international COPS field experiment, which took place from June to August 2007, a dense GPS network was deployed in the Vosges mountain region in eastern France and in the Black Forest region in southwestern Germany. GPS ZTD observations collected during the COPS field campaign, in addition to the European operational GPS data, are assimilated into the AROME/3D-Var system. We investigate the impact of assimilating these GPS ZTD observations on the forecast of convective systems that travelled over eastern France during the three days of COPS IOP 9 (18-20 July 2007). The results show a clear positive impact on short-range quantitative precipitation forecasts when GPS ZTD observations are assimilated. The impact is most important on 19 July 2007 (IOP 9b). The present study benefits from additional validation measurements collected during the COPS campaign. In particular we find that the assimilation of ZTD data induces changes in the low-to-middle tropospheric water vapour vertical structure that are consistent with water vapour measurements from radiosonde and airborne lidar. As most of the improvement is gained by assimilating GPS ZTD observations from the European operational GPS network, this study opens up encouraging horizons for the assimilation of GPS ZTD in new high-resolution operational NWP systems

Scientific interest in urban meteorology has increased because highly populated areas experience high vulnerability to pollution or heavy rain. However, compared to urban air quality or urban heat island (UHI) processes, the urban water vapour cycle is poorly understood because it has been investigated less due to the lack of upper-air measurements and the high sensitivity of surface measurements to local heterogeneities. In this paper, surface measurements of wind, temperature, pressure and humidity, as well as integrated water vapour (IWV) from GPS and MODIS and numerical simulations, have been used to investigate the urban cycle of water vapour in May and June 2004 during the VAPIC field experiment in the Paris area. The surface data show the typical characteristics of an urban area with the absence of water vapour sources and a UHI of about 6 °C at night. The urban IWV distribution differs completely, with an urban IWV excess on average between 1600 and 0600 UTC (with a maximum of about 1.5 kg m−2 at 0600 and 1700 UTC). No IWV difference between the urban and rural areas is found in the middle of the day. The numerical simulations reproduce accurately the urban IWV anomaly. Shallow surface wind convergence associated with the UHI during nighttime provides moisture from the rural areas. Urban areas are therefore under wind convergence for most of the time. The rural water vapour sources and the depth of the convergence control the amplitude of the urban IWV excess. At about 1200 UTC, entrainment at the top of the urban boundary layer is the key process that inhibits the urban IWV excess observed at night. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society