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The present study examined the influence of specific evidence and testimonies on a juror's decision to make a verdict of intentional or negligent homicide in a Civil law country. Italian students (N=280; M age=25.0 years, SD=2.9) read different affidavits characterized by the presence or absence of three elements against the defendant: motive, skill in use of weapons, and previous violence toward the victim. Participants then decided a verdict and provided a confidence judgment on their decision. Results showed that the presence of motive, skill, and previous violence influenced the jurors' decision, significantly changing the verdict from negligent to intentional homicide. The findings were discussed in terms of the folk-concept approach of intentionality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Data from youth (n=1,127), adults (n=1,595), and individuals (N=2,722, combined youth and adults) were followed 3 to 12 years in records to develop items to predict abuse, violence, and homicide in these 3 relevant groups for risk appraisal or safety scales. Shao's bootstrapped logistic regression yielded 14 predictors for youth (AUC= .91), 11 for adults (AUC = .99), and 13 for individuals (AUC= .96). Three regression equations were cross-validated with in-bag and out- of-bag techniques. Pearson coefficients were computed with intelligence, achievement, adaptive behavior, and perception tests. Test-retest reliability was acceptable. Using case-control quasi-experimental design, this study extends probation-parole decision-making tests to infants and children as young as 3 years, with convergent and divergent validity and reliability with other tests. Sensitivity and specificity were high and minimized over- or under-identification challenges in identifying potentially violent persons in the general population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Data from youth (n=1,127), adults (n=1,595), and individuals (N=2,722, combined youth and adults) were followed 3 to 12 years in records to develop items to predict abuse, violence, and homicide in these 3 relevant groups for risk appraisal or safety scales. Shao's bootstrapped logistic regression yielded 14 predictors for youth (AUC= .91), 11 for adults (AUC = .99), and 13 for individuals (AUC= .96). Three regression equations were cross-validated with in-bag and out- of-bag techniques. Pearson coefficients were computed with intelligence, achievement, adaptive behavior, and perception tests. Test-retest reliability was acceptable. Using case-control quasi-experimental design, this study extends probation-parole decision-making tests to infants and children as young as 3 years, with convergent and divergent validity and reliability with other tests. Sensitivity and specificity were high and minimized over- or under-identification challenges in identifying potentially violent persons in the general population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To assess risks of violent offending in young adults, 425 Delinquent Assaulters (M age= 14.1 yr., SD= 1.7; 77 girls, 348 boys) were matched with 425 Nonviolent Delinquents. Analysis of data from court, school, and medical records used Shao's bootstrapped logistic regressions. Predictors of Assaulter status were poorer executive function (OR=0.97) and prior court contacts for violent offenses (OR=3.5e+ 23; AUC=.97; 95%CI=.82-.99). Looking in records backward 4 years (M=4.1, SD= 2.6) and forward 10 years to mean age 24.5 yr. (SD=2.1), adults were classified as Homicidal (8%, n=69); Delinquent Assaulters Later Adult Assaulters (10%, n=86); Delinquent Assaulters Later Noncriminals (32%, n=270); Nonviolent Delinquents Later Nonviolent Criminals (10%, n=87); and Nonviolent Delinquents Later Non-criminals (40%, n=338). The Homicidal group (n=69) was compared to matched Control and Nonviolent Delinquent groups (n = 69) using logistic regression. Predictors of Homicidal versus Control were poorer executive function and alcohol or substance abuse (AUC= .97; 95%CI= .93-99). Predictors of Homicidal versus Nonviolent Delinquents were unemployment, poorer executive function, and prior court contacts (AUC=.98; 95%CI= .95-99). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This postscript conveys lessons learned from the 5 studies by Zagar and colleagues which examined risks for later commission of violence and homicide among abused, violent, and homicidal youth and adults. This set of studies is the first longitudinal data on risks for extreme violence from infancy to adulthood. The 5 articles following these studies consist of a developmental context for risks, historical comparisons of risks for delinquency, analyses of the costs and benefits of actuarial testing and treatment, and a general discussion of the legal issues related to application of testing and treatments. A review of the state of research on homicide acknowledges the many contributors to the literature and ideas underlying this overall work. Then, a set of 12 "fallacies" about violence that prevent or inhibit adoption of realistic, empirically sound approaches to the reduction of violence in society are addressed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Violent crime, especially by youth, is an increasing and costly problem. Zagar and colleagues have described five empirical studies in which youths' and adults' risks were identified and used to predict commission of homicide. The samples were more representative of the most violent modern urban delinquents than samples in previous research from smaller cities. From Zagar and colleagues' results, it is clear that the use of actuarial personality and probation-parole tests to identify at-risk individuals and target treatments to their needs would allow organizations to reduce loss of life and improve quality of life and economic and social well-being. The current article first provides a brief review of the situations in which the courts already accept the use of actuarial personality and probation-parole tests. Following that are several representations of the costs and benefits of broader application of testing and treatment in schools, universities, and workplaces. Finally, a specific proposal for generalized screening is proposed in a city of 3 million, with estimates of lives saved and costs reduced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To assess the risks predicting reoffense, 223 Rapists (M age = 1.4.2 yr., SD= 15; 25 girls, 198 boys) were matched with 223 Nonviolent Delinquents; risks were analyzed using logistic regression. The one predictor was prior court contacts (OR = 155e+12; AUC=.99, 95%CI= .98-99). 223 Molesters were similarly matched with 223 Nonviolent Delinquents; this comparison yielded three predictors: previous court contacts (OR=455e+23), poorer executive function (OR=2.01), and lower social maturity (OR= .97; AUC= .98, 95%CI= .97-99). Records for all cases (now M age =24.2 yr., SD= 1.4) were reviewed forward 10 years and youth were classified into groups: Sexual Homicidal (1%, n=7), Delinquent Rapists Later Adult Rapists (11%, n=73), Delinquent Rapists (21%, n= 144), Delinquent Molesters Later Adult Molesters (10%, n=69), Delinquent Molesters (23%, n= 153), Nonviolent Delinquent Later Nonviolent Adult Criminals (7%, a =45), and Nonviolent Delinquents (27%, n= 178). Comparison of Sexual Homicidal cases (0=7) with their matched Controls (n=7) yielded one predictor, poorer executive function (AUC=.89, 95%CI= .71-93). When Sexual Homicidal cases were matched with Nonviolent Delinquents, predictors were low social maturity and prior court contacts (AUC= .81, 95%CI= .64-93). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article is an evaluation of established actuarial probation-parole tests in light of new data on violent and homicidal behavior. Probation-parole tests originally were developed by observing risks related with recidivism or return to court after release (i.e., the "danger" of releasing an individual) by following offenders in court records for up to 10 years. Commonly used probation-parole tests together comprise 82 distinct items related to characteristics of the offender: home, school, peers, job, family, individual-medical, community, and court contacts. The risks for violence and homicide found by Zagar, et al. were compared with prior meta-analyses of risks with the criterion of violent delinquency. Bootstrapped logistic regressions in Zagar and colleagues' new data yielded highly accurate predictions of violence, showing that improved methods and sampling can lead to still higher accuracy than had been achieved by established probation-parole tests. A general discussion of the usefulness of actuarial tests and answers to challenges of their validity for decision making are provided. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To investigate changes in characteristics of delinquents over time, randomly selected contemporary delinquents (Zagar, et al., 1980-1988; n=2,031) were compared with 3 historical Chicago and Boston samples (Healy & Bonner, 1909-1915, n=2,000; Healy & Bonner, 1917-1923, n=2,000; Glueck & Glueck, 1917-1922, ,n= 1,000). All underwent physical, psychiatric, psychological, school, and social examinations. Contemporary delinquents had more assault, burglary, homicide, alcohol and substance abuse, gang membership, head injury, overdose, and single parents. Historical delinquent samples had more thieves and families with both biological parents. Historical delinquent mean IQ was 5 points below standardization average; modern delinquents were 22 points lower. Contemporary offenders were a greater portion of the county public school-aged population. Current more sensitive and specific examinations account for increases in observed overdoses and head injuries in the 1980s sample. Other demographic differences between contemporary and 3 historical delinquent samples were robust. Findings are discussed with respect to a need for early actuarial assessment and empirical treatment of the costliest delinquents: the dropouts, alcoholics, addicts, career delinquents-criminals, and homicide-prone youth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To identify risks for commission of homicide, 26 convicted Homicidal Youth (M age= 14.9 yr., SD=1.4; n=26; 1 girl, 25 boys) were matched with 26 Nonviolent Delinquents and 26 clinic-referred Controls. Youth were tracked backward 8 years (M=7.7 yr., SD= 1.5) and forward 3 years (M=3.1 yr., SD= 1.2) in records. Data analysis was Shao's bootstrapped logistic regression yielding area under the curve (AUC) and odds ratios (OR). Predictors of homicide were poorer executive function (OR=7.04e+40), violent family (OR=4.01e-16), and alcohol abuse (OR=7.33e-17; AUC= .97, 95%CI= .77-99). From earlier studies, 101 Homicidal Youth and their Controls were reanalyzed similarly. Predictors were poorer executive function (OR = 6.51), lower social maturity (OR=0.28), weapon possession (OR=26.10), and gang membership (OR=4.14; AUC= .98, 95%CI= .96-99). Groups were combined, i.e., 26 and 101 Homicidal; 127 Homicidal Youth (7 girls, 120 boys) and their matched Controls were tracked in records. The predictor was poorer executive function (OR= 3.34e-21; AUC= .98, 95%Ct= .96-97). When 127 Homicidal Youth were compared with 127 matched Nonviolent Delinquents, predictors were poorer executive function (OR=2.83e-02), weapon possession (OR= 1.63e-10), lower social maturity (OR= 1.15), and use of special education services (OR= .94; AUC .94, 95%CI .37-99). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There have been many attempts to explain violent behavior, identify its causes, and predict its occurrence among youth and adults. Research and theoretical constructions have dealt with such far-ranging aspects as childhood health, peer and parental interactions, neuropsychological function, school and community support, and substance use and dependency. Theories have tended to focus on one or a few of these aspects, but there is an effort by many researchers to converge on an integrated approach. By demonstrating unique risk patterns in random samples of later-homicidal abused infants, children, and youth, violent and homicidal delinquents, and homicidal adults, five studies by Zagar and colleagues provide the best current empirical evidence for a view of the development of delinquency as a process of accumulating risks. These risks begin with prenatal substance exposure and continue with abusive or neglectful parenting, academic failure, court contacts, compromised executive function and resultant poor social functioning. Analysis by sex shows that males' and females' risks are virtually identical. Various theories are evaluated with respect to these empirical risk patterns for development of violence and homicide. A proposal for the necessary elements of a successful, overarching explanatory theory is offered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To study risks of abuse, violence, and homicide, 181 Abused Children (M age= 12.85 yr., SD= 2.74; 58 girls, 123 boys) were matched with 181 clinic-referred Controls. Data analysis was Shao's bootstrapped logistic regression with area under curve (AUC) and odds ratios (OR). Predictors of abused status were court contacts (OR=2.04e+22) and poorer executive function (OR=.81; AUC=.99; 95%CI= .97-99). Groups were tracked forward in records for 9 years (M= 8.78 yr., SD = 1.41). Looking forward, youth (M age=21.63 yr., SD=2.07) were classified into Abused Children Later Homicidal (5%, n= 10), Abused Children Later Violent (23%, n=41), Abused Children Later Delinquent (28%, n=50), Abused Children Later Nondelinquent (44%, n =80), and Controls (n= 181). Data were analyzed with two more logistic regressions. Predictors of Abused Children Later Homicidal compared with Controls were number of court contacts (OR = 50,398.78) and poorer executive function (OR=79.72; AUC=.91; 95%CI=.80-.95). The predictor of Abused Children Later Homicidal contrasted with Abused Children Later Nondelinquent was court contacts (OR=2,077,089,352; AUC=.87; 95%CI=.65-.95). The common predictor for Abused Children and Abused Children Later Homicidal groups was court contacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To study risks for abuse and later homicidal behavior, 192 abused infants (M age=3.12 yr., SD= 1.48; 82 girls, 110 boys) and 192 controls were matched on demographics and examined; data discriminating abused and later homicidal cases were analyzed with Shao's bootstrapped logistic regression. Predictors of Abused status were injury, burn, poisoning, fetal substance exposure (OR=2.47), later parental or youth court contacts (OR= 1.86e+12), and parental alcohol abuse (OR= .54; AUC = .99; 95%CI= .96-.99). Youth tracked through records 12 years (to M age= 12.17 yr., SD= 1.89) were classified into Abused Later Homicidal (11%, n=21), Abused Later Violent (14%, n=27), Abused Later Delinquent (31%, n=60), Abused Later Nondelinquent (n =44), and Control groups (n= 192). Data were analyzed similarly. When the Abused Later Homicidal was contrasted with the Control group, predictors of homicide were three or more home/school moves (OR=.78), illnesses (OR=.90), and later court contacts (OR = 1.75e+07; AUC= .99; 95%CI= .90-98). When the Abused Later Homicidal was compared with the Abused Later Nondelinquent group, predictors of homicide were poorer executive function (OR=2.29) and later court contacts (OR = 7.78e+06; AUC= .94; 95%CI= .90-98). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To study the risks of abuse, violence, and homicide, 5 studies of groups at risk for violence are summarized. 192 Abused Infants, 181 Abused Children, 127 Homicidal Youth, 425 Assaulters, 223 Rapists, and 223 Molesters were randomly selected and tracked in court, probation, medical, and school records, then compared with carefully matched groups of Controls and (in older groups) Nonviolent Delinquents. In adolescence or adulthood, these groups were classified into Later Homicidal (N=234), Later Violent or Nonviolent Delinquent, and Later Nondelinquent subgroups for more detailed comparisons. Shao's bootstrapped logistic regressions were applied to identify risks for commission of homicide. Significant predictors for all homicidal cases in these samples were number of court contacts, poorer executive function, lower social maturity, alcohol abuse, and weapon possession. Predictors for the 373 Abused cases (Infants and Children) were court contacts, injury, burn, poisoning, fetal substance exposure, and parental alcohol abuse. Predictors for the 871 Violent Delinquent cases (Assaulters, Rapists, Molesters) were court contacts, poorer executive function, and lower social maturity. Accuracies of prediction from the regressions ranged from 81% for homicidal sex offenders to 87 to 99% for other homicidal groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To study the risks of abuse and homicide, 5 studies of unique groups of abused, delinquent, violent, homicidal, and criminal cases representing ages from infancy to adulthood are presented with areas (AUCs) under the receiver operating curves (ROCs) and odds ratios (OR) for commission of homicide. Delinquent samples compared show changes in risks since the early 1900s. Probation-parole tests contrasted reformed offenders with recidivists. Current data substantively extended examination of risks to infants and to female cases, increasing accuracy of prediction from the previous best AUCs = 0.69-0.76 to AUCs = 0.74-0.97. Empirically supported treatments may reduce onset of delinquency or reoffense beyond 10 to 40% if targeted to developmental risks among at-risk youth and within high-homicide urban areas. Parental costs of raising an abused, delinquent, or violent youth from birth to 17 years were double those of controls and, for a youth who committed murder, 23 times higher. Use of risk-based screening and empirical treatments are legal under U.S., British, and European constitutions and the U.N. Charter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

IQs were correlated with the z score of suicide rate minus z score of homicide rate using nine regions of the world-established market economies, formerly socialized Europe, India, China, other Asian nations, Sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America/Caribbean, Middle East Crescent, and the USA. Correlations were .85 and .83 with crude rates and age-adjusted rates, respectively. The homicide findings arc consistent with previous research in individual countries showing that less intelligent persons commit homicide more often. However, the present findings of a positive correlation between IQ and suicide rates are the opposite of what has been found in the more definitive studies within countries. Explanations for the apparent paradox and for the findings more generally were offered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

From each of 15 health regions, potential years of life lost (PYLL) before age 75 for Status Indians is compared for select causes of death with all other residents. Mortality data from 1991 to 2001 for rates of PYLL (standardized to the 1991 population) are from tables of the British Columbia Vital Statistics Agency and First Nations and Inuit Health Branch in 2002. PYLL rate differences and rate ratios were compared for two groups with significance of the former indicated by the 95% confidence interval. Overall, the rates of PYLL for suicide, homicide, and deaths due to motor vehicle accidents were about 224%, 340%, and 248% higher among Status Indians than all other residents. Rates of PYLL for homicide and deaths from motor vehicle accidents among Status Indian women exceeded those of other residents who were men. For suicide, Status Indian men ranked first and all other male residents of British Columbia ranked second. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study which followed Lester's work of 1998 and 2001 for 27 nations of the world, membership in Alcoholics Anonymous, but not alcohol consumption or cirrhosis mortality as measures of alcohol use, abuse, and treatment, correlated with homicide but not suicide rates. Changes in Alcoholics Anonymous membership were not associated with changes in age-adjusted rates of homicide or suicide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In many societies, girls are more often killed by their parents than boys. However, not much of this is known in contemporary societies. This study had two main objectives. The first was to assess whether the number of boy and girl victims of maternal filicide differ in the literature from 1959 to 2000. Using two scientific databases, Medline and PsycINFO, 20 texts were pertinent. The second objective was to identify the variables that differentiate the mothers who killed a son and those who killed a daughter in a sample of 42 women from the province of Quebec (Canada). Analysis of the data for the first part indicate that the numbers of sons and daughters killed by their mothers are similar in the literature. For the second aim no significant differences were noted between the women who killed a son and those who killed a daughter for 30 variables studied, e.g.. motivation, method of killing, age of the victims, etc. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It was hypothesized that one of the reasons for the U.S. invasion of Iraq was to stop the payments being made by Saddam Hussein to the families of suicide (homicide) bombers in Israel. The consequences of suicide (homicide) bombing attacks against Israel between March 2001 and August 2004 were evaluated as related to the time of the U.S. invasion of Iraq. On average per month during this period, there were fewer overall casualties after the invasion than before it. As many as nearly 1,100 casualties may have been prevented in Israel as a consequence of the U.S. invasion of Iraq, suggesting that at least one possible goal of the U.S. invasion may have been achieved, at least as averaged over the first 17 months after the invasion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study assessed the personalities of 13 murderer schizophrenics using Cloninger's Temperament and Character Inventory, controlling different factors such as institution, treatment, detention or loss of liberty, and can discriminate between schizophrenic patients involved in homicide, schizophrenics with no past violent behavior, paranoiac murderers, and imprisoned murderers with no psychiatric history. Results show significantly that murderer schizophrenics had significantly higher scores on the subscale, Self-transcendence, than other groups, which suggests that Self-transcendence as measured may be an aggravating factor for schizophrenia and may be found in the personality of schizophrenic subjects who performed homicidal acts. This dimension constitutes a way and an additional element for diagnosis not available with the DSM-IV criteria. It may help understanding and predicting violent behavior among schizophrenic patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Canadian Bill C-17 was implemented in 1991 to restrict the use of firearms, providing a chance to investigate the effect of firearm control laws in the use of firearms for suicide and homicide. Following Lester and Leenaars' comprehensive studies, the present study examined the use of firearms for suicide and homicide during the period prior to the bill and during the period after the passing of Bill C-17 to assess the association of the bill with rates of suicide and homicide by method. Analysis showed a significant decrease after passage of Bill C-17 in the rates of suicides and homicides involving firearms and the percentage of suicides using firearms. The analysis provides support for the position that restricting the availability of firearms as a lethal means of committing suicide and homicide may help reduce the numbers of suicides and homicides. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using state data from 1992 and 2000 instead of 1975, the author both confirmed and extended Lester's 1987 study. Like Lester's study, the present replication showed for 1992 (but not 2000) that the more people drinking fluoridated water, the lower the rates of crude and age-adjusted suicide (partial rs: -.25 and -.25, respectively). Crude and age-adjusted rates of homicide in 1992 and 2000 did not change with the fluoridation of public water. Effective interpretation requires more study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Explaining the phenomenon of male serial homicide has usually been approached from a psychiatric perspective. However, recent integrative theory suggests that cultural factors may play a role in shaping the psychology of young males with particular psychiatric and possibly neurological vulnerabilities in such ways as to facilitate converting the motivation to kill into actual behavior. Present results indicated that 34-45% of the interstate variation in rates of serial killer activity could be accounted for by three dimensions of local culture. Higher rates of male serial killer activity were associated with a local state culture supportive of game hunting and military training and a local culture supportive of punitive violence. The findings must be viewed with caution since societal variables are complex and the results are based on correlations which cannot be causally interpreted without more direct evidence of validity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Presents a study on the presentation and interpretation of international homicide data. Argument that White groups around the world have relatively lower homicide rates compared to Black groups; Classification of United Nations data according to the Manual of the International Statistical Classification of Diseases, Injuries and Causes of Death.

Corrections to the article "Summary of Studies of Abused Infants and Children Later Homicidal, and homicidal, assaulting later homicidal, and sexual homicidal youth and adults," by R. J. Zagar, K. G. Busch, W. M. Grove, and J. R. Hughes is presented.

Several corrections to the articles including "Introduction to a Series of Studies on Abused, Delinquent, Violent, and Homicidal Youth and Adults," "Looking Forward in Records of Young Adults Who Were Convicted of Homicide or Assault as Youth: Risks for Reoffending," and "An Empirical Theory of the Development of Homicide within Individuals" that were published in the 2009 issue are presented.

Replies to the comment on the article regarding international homicide data presentation and interpretation. Concern over the differences in mortality data reported from the United States and from Europe; Race differences in homicide; Illustration of Brimelow's theory of emotional conditioning.