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Background: Mood and anxiety disorders are heterogeneous conditions with variable course. Knowledge on latent classes and transitions between these classes over time based on longitudinal disorder status information provides insight into clustering of meaningful groups with different disease prognosis., Methods: Data of all four waves of the Netherlands Mental Health Survey and Incidence Study-2 were used, a representative population-based study of adults (mean duration between two successive waves = 3 years; N at T0 = 6646; T1 = 5303; T2 = 4618; T3 = 4007; this results in a total number of data points: 20 574). Presence of eight mood and anxiety DSM-IV disorders was assessed with the Composite International Diagnostic Interview. Latent class analysis and latent Markov modelling were used., Results: The best fitting model identified four classes: a healthy class (prevalence: 94.1%), depressed-worried class (3.6%; moderate-to-high proportions of mood disorders and generalized anxiety disorder (GAD)), fear class (1.8%; moderate-to-high proportions of panic and phobia disorders) and high comorbidity class (0.6%). In longitudinal analyses over a three-year period, the minority of those in the depressed-worried and high comorbidity class persisted in their class over time (36.5% and 38.4%, respectively), whereas the majority in the fear class did (67.3%). Suggestive of recovery is switching to the healthy class, this was 39.7% in the depressed-worried class, 12.5% in the fear class and 7.0% in the high comorbidity class., Conclusions: People with panic or phobia disorders have a considerably more persistent and chronic disease course than those with depressive disorders including GAD. Consequently, they could especially benefit from longer-term monitoring and disease management.

Background: Disease trajectories of patients with anxiety disorders are highly diverse and approximately 60% remain chronically ill. The ability to predict disease course in individual patients would enable personalized management of these patients. This study aimed to predict recovery from anxiety disorders within 2 years applying a machine learning approach., Methods: In total, 887 patients with anxiety disorders (panic disorder, generalized anxiety disorder, agoraphobia, or social phobia) were selected from a naturalistic cohort study. A wide array of baseline predictors ( N = 569) from five domains (clinical, psychological, sociodemographic, biological, lifestyle) were used to predict recovery from anxiety disorders and recovery from all common mental disorders (CMDs: anxiety disorders, major depressive disorder, dysthymia, or alcohol dependency) at 2-year follow-up using random forest classifiers (RFCs)., Results: At follow-up, 484 patients (54.6%) had recovered from anxiety disorders. RFCs achieved a cross-validated area-under-the-receiving-operator-characteristic-curve (AUC) of 0.67 when using the combination of all predictor domains (sensitivity: 62.0%, specificity 62.8%) for predicting recovery from anxiety disorders. Classification of recovery from CMDs yielded an AUC of 0.70 (sensitivity: 64.6%, specificity: 62.3%) when using all domains. In both cases, the clinical domain alone provided comparable performances. Feature analysis showed that prediction of recovery from anxiety disorders was primarily driven by anxiety features, whereas recovery from CMDs was primarily driven by depression features., Conclusions: The current study showed moderate performance in predicting recovery from anxiety disorders over a 2-year follow-up for individual patients and indicates that anxiety features are most indicative for anxiety improvement and depression features for improvement in general.

Background: Major depressive disorder (MDD) represents a leading cause of disability. This study examines the course of disability in patients with chronic, recurrent and remitting MDD compared to healthy controls and identifies predictors of disability in remitting MDD., Methods: We included 914 participants from the Netherlands Study of Depression and Anxiety (NESDA). DSM-IV MDD and WHO DAS II disability were assessed at baseline and at 2, 4 and 6 years. Six-year total and domain-specific disability were analysed and compared in participants with chronic (n = 57), recurrent (n = 120), remitting (n = 127) MDD and in healthy controls (n = 430). Predictors of residual disability were identified using linear regression analysis., Results: At baseline, most disability was found in chronic MDD, followed by recurrent MDD, remitting MDD and healthy controls. Across diagnostic groups, most disability was found in household activities, interpersonal functioning, participation in society and cognition. A chronic course was associated with chronic disability. Symptom remission was associated with a decrease in disability, but some disability remained. In remitting MDD, higher residual disability was predicted by older age, more severe avoidance symptoms, higher disability at baseline and late symptom remission. Severity of residual disability correlated with the severity of residual depressive symptoms., Conclusions: Symptomatic remission is a prerequisite for improvements in disability. However, disability persists despite symptom remission. Therefore, treatment of MDD should include an explicit focus on disability, especially on the more complex domains. To this end, treatments should promote behavioural activation and address subthreshold depressive symptoms in patients with remitted MDD.

Background: Anxiety disorders are associated with substantial functional limitations but the course of functioning following symptom remission remains largely unknown., Method: Using data from the Netherlands Study of Depression and Anxiety (NESDA), we examined the 2-year trajectories of functioning in participants with chronic (n = 586) or remitting anxiety disorders (n = 385) and in healthy controls (n = 585). In participants with remitting anxiety disorders, we identified predictors of functioning from among sociodemographic, clinical and vulnerability variables. Data were analysed using linear mixed models (LMMs). Functioning was assessed with the World Health Organization Disability Assessment Schedule II (WHO DAS II)., Results: At baseline, participants with remitting anxiety disorders functioned significantly better than those with chronic anxiety disorders, but significantly worse than controls. In both anxiety disorder groups, most impairment was reported in social functioning, occupational functioning and cognition. During the follow-up, functioning improved in both groups, probably due to treatments received. Participants who achieved symptom remission experienced moderate improvements in social functioning and cognition but not in occupational functioning. Of those who remitted, 45.8% reported functioning scores similar to healthy controls whereas 28.5% still functioned at the level of those with chronic anxiety disorders. Worse functioning was predicted by severe anxiety disorders, use of psychological treatment, co-morbid depressive disorders and maladaptive personality traits., Conclusions: In anxiety disorders, symptom remission is accompanied by improvements in functioning but significant functional impairments may persist because of co-morbid disorders, lower functioning prior to the onset of the anxiety disorder or residual subthreshold anxiety symptoms.

Background: Panic disorder (PD) is generally considered to be a chronic or intermittent disorder. This view may be biased because of a lack of general population studies investigating panic from the onset of an episode onwards. Data regarding the course of subthreshold panic disorder (sub-PD) and predictors of its course are lacking., Method: Using data from a large community-based survey, the Netherlands Mental Health and Incidence Study (NEMESIS), that retrospectively assessed the 2-year course of panic with a Life Chart Interview (LCI), this study investigated remission, chronicity and recurrence in subjects with new episodes of PD or sub-PD. Predictor variables of remission consisted of sociodemographics, psychobiological, environmental, psychiatric and panic-related factors., Results: In PD, remission of panic attacks occurred in 64.5% of subjects, mean time to remission was 5.7 months, and the remission rate was 5.8/100 person-months. In 43.3% of subjects panic was still present after 1 year. Recurrence of panic attacks occurred in 21.4% of those with PD who had achieved remission and for whom sufficient follow-up time was available. In general, the course of sub-PD was more favourable. Predictors of remission were female gender, the absence of ongoing difficulties, subthreshold panic and a low initial frequency of attacks., Conclusions: These results suggest that the course of panic is diverse in the general population, thereby underlining the need for accurate predictors. This requires further research including biological data and additional psychological data. In addition, given the large proportion with a relapse, relapse prevention should be part of any treatment programme.