Search

Abstract: Copepods represent the major part of the dry weight of the mesozooplankton in pelagic ecosystems and therefore have a central role in the secondary production of the North Atlantic Ocean. The calanoid copepod species Calanus finmarchicus is the main large copepod in subarctic waters of the North Atlantic, dominating the dry weight of the mesozooplankton in regions such as the northern North Sea and the Norwegian Sea. The objective of this work was to investigate the relationships between both the fundamental and realised niches of C. finmarchicus in order to better understand the future influence of global climate change on the abundance, the spatial distribution and the phenology of this key-structural species. Based on standardised Principal Component Analyses (PCAs), a macroecological approach was applied to determine factors affecting the spatial distribution of C. finmarchicus and to characterise its realised niche. Second, an ecophysiological model was used to calculate the Potential Egg Production Rate (PEPR) of C. finmarchicus and the centre of its fundamental niche. Relationships between the two niches were then investigated by correlation analysis. We found a close relationship between the fundamental and realised niches of C. finmarchicus at spatial, monthly and decadal scales. While the species is at the centre of its niche in the subarctic gyre, our joint macroecological and macrophysiological analyses show that it is at the edge of its niche in the North Sea, making the species in this region more vulnerable to temperature changes. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Selected Baltic Sea watershed River Runoff (BSRR) events during 1970–2000 were used as predictor in Generalised Linear Mixed Models (GLIMMIX) for evidence of simultaneous changes/chain of events (including possible time lags) in some chemical, physical and biological variables in the Baltic and North Sea ecosystems. Our aim was to explore for climatic-based explanation for ecological regime shifts that were documented semi-simultaneously in both ecosystems. Certain similarities were identified in the North Sea and the Baltic Sea salinity, oxygen concentration, temperature and phyto- and zooplankton parameters. These findings suggest that BSRR events which originate in the Baltic Sea catchment area modify and contribute to large scale ecosystem changes not only in the Baltic Sea, but also in the adjacent parts of the North Sea. However, the Baltic Sea inter-annual and inter-decadal variabilities of physical and biological parameters are driven by direct atmospheric forcing, typically with a relatively short lag. In contrast, such changes in the North Sea are influenced by both local and direct atmospheric forcing, typically with a longer lag than in the Baltic, and a more regional, indirect forcing from changes in the North Atlantic. We suggest that this interactive system partially is behind large scale ecosystem regime shifts found in both Seas. During our study period two such shifts have been identified independently from us in a study earlier in the Southern and Central Baltic in 1980s and 1990s and a later one in 2001/2002 in the North Sea. As a post hoc test we compared the 0+ year class strength of the North Sea herring with BSRR intensity, and found evidence for higher herring production in high BSRR periods, which further corroborates the idea of a remote effect from the large watershed area of the Baltic. Regime shifts as well as their semi-synchronous appearance in two neighbouring sea areas could be identified. GLIMMIX models provide opportunities for determining and understanding the mechanisms behind marine ecosystem long-term and large-scale changes. Many studies have shown the importance of climatic factors (identified by the air pressure index, North Atlantic Oscillation) to the physical and biological changes over the North Atlantic. Our study enlarges the areal and temporal scope of these observations, and provides further support and explanation for climate as the pacemaker for marine ecological changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]