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Mate-choice copying is a type of social learning in which females can change their mate preference after observing the choice of others. This behaviour can potentially affect population evolution and ecology, namely through increased dispersal and reduced local adaptation. Here, we simulated the effects of mate-choice copying in populations expanding across an environmental gradient to understand whether it can accelerate or retard the expansion process. Two mate-choice copying strategies were used: (i) when females target a single individual and (ii) when females target similar individuals. We also simulated cases where the male trait singled out by females with mate choice maps perfectly onto his genotype or is influenced by genotype-by-environment interactions. These rules have different effects on the results. When a trait is determined by genotype alone, populations where copier females target all similar males expand faster and the number of potential copiers increased. However, when preference is determined by genotype-by-environment interactions, populations where copier females target a single male had higher dispersal and also expand faster, but the potential number of copiers decreases. The results show that mate-choice copying can accelerate the expansion process, although its adaptiveness depends on the information animals use in different contexts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Plans for habitat restoration will benefit from predictions of timescales for recovery. Theoretical models have been a powerful tool for informing practical guidelines in planning marine protected areas, suggesting restoration planning could also benefit from a theoretical framework. We developed a model that can predict recovery times following restoration action, under dispersal, recruitment and connectivity constraints. We apply the model to a case study of seagrass restoration and find recovery times following restoration action can vary greatly, from <1 to >20 years. The model also shows how recovery can be accelerated when restoration actions are matched to the constraints on recovery. For example, spreading of propagules can be used when connectivity is the critical restriction. The recovery constraints we articulated mathematically also apply to the restoration of coral reefs, mangroves, saltmarsh, shellfish reefs and macroalgal forests, so our model provides a general framework for choosing restoration actions that accelerate coastal habitat recovery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Though far less obvious than direct effects (clinical disease or mortality), the indirect influences of pathogens are difficult to estimate but may hold fitness consequences. Here, we disentangle the directional relationships between infection and energetic reserves, evaluating the hypotheses that energetic reserves influence infection status of the host and that infection elicits costs to energetic reserves. Using repeated measures of fat reserves and infection status in individual bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, we documented that fat influenced ability to clear pathogens (Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae) and infection with respiratory pathogens was costly to fat reserves. Costs of infection approached, and in some instances exceeded, costs of rearing offspring to independence in terms of reductions to fat reserves. Fat influenced probability of clearing pathogens, pregnancy and over-winter survival; from an energetic perspective, an animal could survive for up to 23 days on the amount of fat that was lost to high levels of infection. Cost of pathogens may amplify trade-offs between reproduction and survival. In the absence of an active outbreak, the influence of resident pathogens often is overlooked. Nevertheless, the energetic burden of pathogens likely has consequences for fitness and population dynamics, especially when food resources are insufficient. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Patterns of habitat use directly influence a species' fitness, yet for many species an individual's age can influence patterns of habitat use. However, in tropical rainforests, which host the greatest terrestrial species diversity, little is known about how age classes of different species use different adjacent habitats of varying quality. We use long-term mist net data from the Amazon rainforest to assess patterns of habitat use among adult, adolescent (teenage) and young understory birds in forest fragments, primary and secondary forest at the Biological Dynamics of Forest Fragments Project in Brazil. Insectivore adults were most common in primary forest, adolescents were equally likely in primary and secondary forest, and all ages were the least common in forest fragments. In contrast to insectivores, frugivores and omnivores showed no differences among all three habitat types. Our results illustrate potential ideal despotic distributions among breeding populations of some guilds of understory birds where adult insectivores may competitively exclude adolescent individuals from primary forest. Secondary forest recovery appears to hold promise as a breeding habitat for frugivore and omnivore species but only as a pre-breeding habitat for insectivores, but as the forest ages, the demographic structure of bird populations should match that of primary forest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Organisms that immigrate into a recipient habitat generate a movement pattern that affects local population dynamics and the environment. Spillover is the pattern of unidirectional movement from a donor habitat to a different, adjacent recipient habitat. However, ecological definitions are often generalized to include any cross-habitat movement, which limits within- and cross-discipline collaboration. To assess spillover nomenclature, we reviewed 337 studies within the agriculture, disease, fisheries and habitat fragmentation disciplines. Each study's definition of spillover and the methods used were analysed. We identified four descriptors (movement, habitat type and arrangement, and effect) used that differentiate spillover from other cross-habitat movement patterns (dispersal, foray loops and edge movement). Studies often define spillover as movement (45%) but rarely measure it as such (4%), particularly in disease and habitat fragmentation disciplines. Consequently, 98% of studies could not distinguish linear from returning movement out of a donor habitat, which can overestimate movement distance. Overall, few studies (12%) included methods that matched their own definition, revealing a distinct mismatch. Because theory shows that long-term impacts of the different movement patterns can vary, differentiating spillover from other movement patterns is necessary for effective long-term and inter-disciplinary management of organisms that use heterogeneous landscapes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reports of fading vole and lemming population cycles and persisting low populations in some parts of the Arctic have raised concerns about the spread of these fundamental changes to tundra food web dynamics. By compiling 24 unique time series of lemming population fluctuations across the circumpolar region, we show that virtually all populations displayed alternating periods of cyclic/non-cyclic fluctuations over the past four decades. Cyclic patterns were detected 55% of the time (n = 649 years pooled across sites) with a median periodicity of 3.7 years, and non-cyclic periods were not more frequent in recent years. Overall, there was an indication for a negative effect of warm spells occurring during the snow onset period of the preceding year on lemming abundance. However, winter duration or early winter climatic conditions did not differ on average between cyclic and non-cyclic periods. Analysis of the time series shows that there is presently no Arctic-wide collapse of lemming cycles, even though cycles have been sporadic at most sites during the last decades. Although non-stationary dynamics appears a common feature of lemming populations also in the past, continued warming in early winter may decrease the frequency of periodic irruptions with negative consequences for tundra ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Following severe environmental change that reduces mean population fitness below replacement, populations must adapt to avoid eventual extinction, a process called evolutionary rescue. Models of evolutionary rescue demonstrate that initial size, genetic variation and degree of maladaptation influence population fates. However, many models feature populations that grow without negative density dependence or with constant genetic diversity despite precipitous population decline, assumptions likely to be violated in conservation settings. We examined the simultaneous influences of density-dependent growth and erosion of genetic diversity on populations adapting to novel environmental change using stochastic, individual-based simulations. Density dependence decreased the probability of rescue and increased the probability of extinction, especially in large and initially well-adapted populations that previously have been predicted to be at low risk. Increased extinction occurred shortly following environmental change, as populations under density dependence experienced more rapid decline and reached smaller sizes. Populations that experienced evolutionary rescue lost genetic diversity through drift and adaptation, particularly under density dependence. Populations that declined to extinction entered an extinction vortex, where small size increased drift, loss of genetic diversity and the fixation of maladaptive alleles, hindered adaptation and kept populations at small densities where they were vulnerable to extinction via demographic stochasticity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The questions of how healthy colonic crypts maintain their size, and how homeostasis is disrupted by driver mutations, are central to understanding colorectal tumorigenesis. We propose a three-type stochastic branching process, which accounts for stem, transit-amplifying (TA) and fully differentiated (FD) cells, to model the dynamics of cell populations residing in colonic crypts. Our model is simple in its formulation, allowing us to estimate all but one of the model parameters from the literature. Fitting the single remaining parameter, we find that model results agree well with data from healthy human colonic crypts, capturing the considerable variance in population sizes observed experimentally. Importantly, our model predicts a steady-state population in healthy colonic crypts for relevant parameter values. We show that APC and KRAS mutations, the most significant early alterations leading to colorectal cancer, result in increased steady-state populations in mutated crypts, in agreement with experimental results. Finally, our model predicts a simple condition for unbounded growth of cells in a crypt, corresponding to colorectal malignancy. This is predicted to occur when the division rate of TA cells exceeds their differentiation rate, with implications for therapeutic cancer prevention strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change can severely impact species that depend on temporary resources by inducing phenological mismatches between consumer and resource seasonal timing. In the winter moth, warmer winters caused eggs to hatch before their food source, young oak leaves, became available. This phenological mismatch changed the selection on the temperature sensitivity of egg development rate. However, we know little about the fine-scale fitness consequences of phenological mismatch at the individual level and how this mismatch affects population dynamics in the winter moth. To determine the fitness consequences of mistimed egg hatching relative to timing of oak budburst, we quantified survival and pupation weight in a feeding experiment. We found that mismatch greatly increased mortality rates of freshly hatched caterpillars, as well as affecting caterpillar growth and development time. We then investigated whether these individual fitness consequences have population-level impacts by estimating the effect of phenological mismatch on population dynamics, using our long-term data (1994–2021) on relative winter moth population densities at four locations in The Netherlands. We found a significant effect of mismatch on population density with higher population growth rates in years with a smaller phenological mismatch. Our results indicate that climate change-induced phenological mismatch can incur severe individual fitness consequences that can impact population density in the wild. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Varroa destructor is an ectoparasitic mite of honeybees which vectors a range of pathogenic viruses, the most notable being Deformed wing virus (DWV). Mites parasitise bees during pupal development and male honeybees, drones, have a longer development cycle than female workers (24 versus 21 days), allow for more progeny mites to develop per foundress (1.6–2.5 compared to 0.7–1.45). How this longer exposure time influences evolution of the transmitted virus population is unknown. Using uniquely tagged viruses recovered from cDNA we investigated the replication, competition and morbidity of DWV genotypes in drones. Assays examining virus replication and morbidity revealed drones are highly susceptible to both predominant genotypes of DWV. In virus passage studies using an equimolar inocula of major DNA genotypes and their recombinants, the recombinant form dominated but did not reach 100% of the virus population within 10 passages. Using an in-silico model of the virus–mite–bee system we examined bottlenecks during virus acquisition by the mite and subsequent injection of viruses into the host, which may play a significant role in shaping virus diversity. This study furthers our understanding of the variables influencing DWV diversity changes and provides insight into areas of future research in the mite–virus–bee system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Body size is a prominent morphological trait which affects many aspects of an organism's life. Although large body size is generally considered to be advantageous, ecologists have wondered about the benefits of being small. Many studies of body size depend on the metabolic theory of ecology since body size is an irremovable part of an organism's energy budget. Body size is also a spatial quantity and therefore is linked to spatial processes. Here, I show that competition for space leads to a benefit of being small and hence selects for increasingly smaller body size. I build a deterministic population dynamics model and a stochastic model of birth, death and dispersal in a population of individuals with two different body sizes and show that only the smaller individuals survive. I also extend the population dynamics model to continuously varying body sizes and include a stabilizing natural selection for an intermediate body size. I find that the intrinsic advantage of smaller body size in competition for space can only be overcome when natural selection for a large body size is sufficiently strong. Overall, my results point to a novel benefit of being small. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Borrelia burgdorferi (Bb) and Babesia microti (Bm) are vector-borne zoonotic pathogens commonly found co-circulating in Ixodes scapularis and Peromyscus leucopus populations. The restricted distribution and lower prevalence of Bm has been historically attributed to lower host-to-tick transmission efficiency and limited host ranges. We hypothesized that prevalence patterns are driven by coinfection dynamics and vertical transmission. We use a multi-year, multiple location, longitudinal dataset with mathematical modelling to elucidate coinfection dynamics between Bb and Bm in natural populations of P. leucopus, the most competent reservoir host for both pathogens in the eastern USA. Our analyses indicate that, in the absence of vertical transmission, Bb is viable at lower tick numbers than Bm. However, with vertical transmission, Bm is viable at lower tick numbers than Bb. Vertical transmission has a particularly strong effect on Bm prevalence early in the active season while coinfection has an increasing role during the nymphal peak. Our analyses indicate that coinfection processes, such as facilitation of Bm infection by Bb, have relatively little influence on the persistence of either parasite. We suggest future work examines the sensitivity of Bm vertical transmission and other key processes to local environmental conditions to inform surveillance and control of tick-borne pathogens. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

No environment is constant over time, and environmental fluctuations impact the outcome of evolutionary dynamics. Survival of a population not adapted to some environmental conditions is threatened unless, for example, a mutation rescues it, an eco-evolutionary process termed evolutionary rescue. We here investigate evolutionary rescue in an environment that fluctuates between a favourable state, in which the population grows, and a harsh state, in which the population declines. We develop a stochastic model that includes both population dynamics and genetics. We derive analytical predictions for the mean extinction time of a non-adapted population given that it is not rescued, the probability of rescue by a mutation, and the mean appearance time of a rescue mutant, which we validate using numerical simulations. We find that stochastic environmental fluctuations, resulting in quasi-periodic environmental changes, accelerate extinction and hinder evolutionary rescue compared with deterministic environmental fluctuations, resulting in periodic environmental changes. We demonstrate that high equilibrium population sizes and per capita growth rates maximize the chances of evolutionary rescue. We show that an imperfectly harsh environment, which does not fully prevent births but makes the death rate to birth rate ratio much greater than unity, has almost the same rescue probability as a perfectly harsh environment, which fully prevents births. Finally, we put our results in the context of antimicrobial resistance and conservation biology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate warming is altering life cycles of ectotherms by advancing phenology and decreasing generation times. Theoretical models provide powerful tools to investigate these effects of climate warming on consumer–resource population dynamics. Yet, existing theory primarily considers organisms with simplified life histories in constant temperature environments, making it difficult to predict how warming will affect organisms with complex life cycles in seasonal environments. We develop a size-structured consumer–resource model with seasonal temperature dependence, parameterized for a freshwater insect consuming zooplankton. We simulate how climate warming in a seasonal environment could alter a key life-history trait of the consumer, number of generations per year, mediating responses of consumer–resource population sizes and consumer persistence. We find that, with warming, consumer population sizes increase through multiple mechanisms. First, warming decreases generation times by increasing rates of resource ingestion and growth and/or lengthening the growing season. Second, these life-history changes shorten the juvenile stage, increasing the number of emerging adults and population-level reproduction. Unstructured models with similar assumptions found that warming destabilized consumer–resource dynamics. By contrast, our size-structured model predicts stability and consumer persistence. Our study suggests that, in seasonal environments experiencing climate warming, life-history changes that lead to shorter generation times could delay population extinctions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nature is replete with variation in the body sizes, reproductive output and generation times of species that produce life-history responses known to vary from small and fast to large and slow. Although researchers recognize that life-history speed likely dictates fundamental processes in consumer-resource interactions like productivity and stability, theoretical work remains incomplete in this critical area. Here, we examine the role of life-history speed on consumer–resource interactions by using a well-used mathematical approach that manipulates the speed of the consumer's growth rate in a consumer–resource interaction. Importantly, this approach holds the isocline geometry intact, allowing us to assess the impacts of altered life-history speed on stability (coefficient of variation, CV) without changing the underlying qualitative dynamics. Although slowing life history can be initially stabilizing, we find that in stochastic settings slowing ultimately drives highly destabilizing population disappearances, especially under reddened noise. Our results suggest that human-driven reddening of noise may decrease species stability because the autocorrelation of red noise enlarges the period and magnitude of perturbations, overwhelming a species' natural compensatory responses via a ratchet-like effect. This ratchet-like effect then pushes species' population dynamics far away from equilibria, which can lead to precipitous local extinction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The narrow-headed vole, collared lemming and common vole were the most abundant small mammal species across the Eurasian Late Pleistocene steppe-tundra environment. Previous ancient DNA studies of the collared lemming and common vole have revealed dynamic population histories shaped by climatic fluctuations. To investigate the extent to which species with similar adaptations share common evolutionary histories, we generated a dataset comprised the mitochondrial genomes of 139 ancient and 6 modern narrow-headed voles from several sites across Europe and northwestern Asia covering approximately the last 100 thousand years (kyr). We inferred Bayesian time-aware phylogenies using 11 radiocarbon-dated samples to calibrate the molecular clock. Divergence of the main mtDNA lineages across the three species occurred during marine isotope stages (MIS) 7 and MIS 5, suggesting a common response of species adapted to open habitat during interglacials. We identified several time-structured mtDNA lineages in European narrow-headed vole, suggesting lineage turnover. The timing of some of these turnovers was synchronous across the three species, allowing us to identify the main drivers of the Late Pleistocene dynamics of steppe- and cold-adapted species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pleistocene climate cycles are well documented to have shaped contemporary species distributions and genetic diversity. Northward range expansions in response to deglaciation following the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; approximately 21 000 years ago) are surmised to have led to population size expansions in terrestrial taxa and changes in seasonal migratory behaviour. Recent findings, however, suggest that some northern temperate populations may have been more stable than expected through the LGM. We modelled the demographic history of 19 co-distributed boreal-breeding North American bird species from full mitochondrial gene sets and species-specific molecular rates. We used these demographic reconstructions to test how species with different migratory strategies were affected by glacial cycles. Our results suggest that effective population sizes increased in response to Pleistocene deglaciation earlier than the LGM, whereas genetic diversity was maintained throughout the LGM despite shifts in geographical range. We conclude that glacial cycles prior to the LGM have most strongly shaped contemporary genetic diversity in these species. We did not find a relationship between historic population dynamics and migratory strategy, contributing to growing evidence that major switches in migratory strategy during the LGM are unnecessary to explain contemporary migratory patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Facilitation is likely important for understanding community diversity dynamics, but its myriad potential mechanisms are under-investigated. Studies of pollinator-mediated facilitation in plants, for example, are typically focused on how co-flowering species facilitate each other's pollination within a season. However, pollinator-mediated facilitation could also arise in the form of inter-annual pollination support, where co-occurring plant populations mutually facilitate each other by providing dynamic stability to support a pollinator population through time. In this work, I test this hypothesis with simulation models of annual flowering plant and bee pollinator populations to determine if and how inter-annual pollination support affects the persistence and/or stability of simulated communities. Two-species plant communities persisted at higher rates than single-species communities, and facilitation was strongest in communities with low mean germination rates and highly species-specific responses to environmental variation. Single-species communities were often more stable than their counterparts, likely because of survivorship—persistent single-species communities were necessarily more stable through time to support pollinators. This work shows that competition and facilitation can simultaneously affect plant population dynamics. It also importantly identifies key features of annual plant communities that might exhibit inter-annual pollination support- those with low germination rates and species-specific responses to variation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The importance of long-distance dispersal (LDD) in shaping geographical distributions has been debated since the nineteenth century. In terrestrial vertebrates, LDD events across large water bodies are considered highly improbable, but organismal traits affecting dispersal capacity are generally not taken into account. Here, we focus on a recent lizard radiation and combine a summary-coalescent species tree based on 1225 exons with a probabilistic model that links dispersal capacity to an evolving trait, to investigate whether ecological specialization has influenced the probability of trans-oceanic dispersal. Cryptoblepharus species that occur in coastal habitats have on average dispersed 13 to 14 times more frequently than non-coastal species and coastal specialization has, therefore, led to an extraordinarily widespread distribution that includes multiple continents and distant island archipelagoes. Furthermore, their presence across the Pacific substantially predates the age of human colonization and we can explicitly reject the possibility that these patterns are solely shaped by human-mediated dispersal. Overall, by combining new analytical methods with a comprehensive phylogenomic dataset, we use a quantitative framework to show how coastal specialization can influence dispersal capacity and eventually shape geographical distributions at a macroevolutionary scale.

Genetic divergence among allopatric populations builds reproductive isolation over time. This process is accelerated when populations face a changing environment that allows large-effect mutational differences to accumulate, but abrupt change also places populations at risk of extinction. Here we use simulations of Fisher's geometric model with explicit population dynamics to explore the genetic changes that occur in the face of environmental changes. Because evolutionary rescue leads to the fixation of mutations whose phenotypic effects are larger on average compared with populations not at risk of extinction, these mutations are thus more likely to lead to reproductive isolation. We refer to the formation of new species from the ashes of populations in decline as the phoenix hypothesis of speciation. The phoenix hypothesis predicts more substantial hybrid fitness breakdown among populations surviving a higher extinction risk. The hypothesis was supported when many loci underlie adaptation. With only a small number of potential rescue mutations, however, mutations that fixed in different populations were more likely to be identical, with such parallel changes reducing isolation. Consequently, reproductive isolation builds fastest in populations subject to an intermediate extinction risk, given a limited number of mutations available for adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecologists have long sought to understand the dynamics of populations and communities by deriving mathematical theory from first principles. Theoretical models often take the form of dynamical equations that comprise the ecological processes (e.g. competition, predation) believed to govern system dynamics. The inverse of this approach-inferring which processes and ecological interactions drive observed dynamics-remains an open problem in ecology. Here, we propose a way to attack this problem using a machine learning method known as symbolic regression, which seeks to discover relationships in time-series data and to express those relationships using dynamical equations. We found that this method could rapidly discover models that explained most of the variance in three classic demographic time series. More importantly, it reverse-engineered the models previously proposed by theoretical ecologists to describe these time series, capturing the core ecological processes these models describe and their functional forms. Our findings suggest a potentially powerful new way to merge theory development and data analysis.

Dispersal is a key driver of spatial population dynamics. Dispersal behaviour may be shaped by many factors, such as mate-finding, the spatial distribution of resources, or wind and currents, yet most models of spatial dynamics assume random dispersal. We examined the spatial dynamics of a day-flying moth species (Arctia virginalis) that forms mating aggregations on hilltops (hilltopping) based on long-term adult and larval population censuses. Using time-series models, we compared spatial population dynamics resulting from empirically founded hilltop-based connectivity indices and modelled the interactive effects of temperature, precipitation and density dependence. Model comparisons supported hilltop-based connectivity metrics including hilltop elevation over random connectivity, suggesting an effect of hilltopping behaviour on dynamics. We also found strong interactive effects of temperature and precipitation on dynamics. Simulations based on fitted time-series models showed lower patch occupancy and regional synchrony, and higher colonization and extinction rates when hilltopping was included, with potential implications for the probability of persistence of the patch network. Overall, our results show the potential for dispersal behaviour to have important effects on spatial population dynamics and persistence, and we advocate the inclusion of such non-random dispersal in metapopulation models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evidence accumulates that dispersal is correlated with individual behavioural phenotype (dispersal syndrome). The evolutionary causes and consequences of such covariation depend on the degree of plasticity versus inheritance of the traits, which requires challenging experiments to implement in mobile organisms. Here, we combine a forced dispersal experiment, natural colonization and longitudinal data to establish if dispersal and aggression levels are integrated and to test their adaptive nature in pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca). We found that (forced) dispersers behaved more aggressively in their first breeding year after dispersal and decreased their aggression in following years. Strength of dispersal syndrome and direction of fecundity selection on aggression in newly colonized areas varied between years. We propose that the net benefits of aggression for dispersers increase under harsh conditions (e.g. low food abundance). This hypothesis now warrants further testing. Overall, this study provides unprecedented experimental evidence that dispersal syndromes can be remodelled via adaptive plasticity depending on the individuals' local breeding experience and/or year-specific ecological conditions. It highlights the importance of individual behavioural variation in population dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the temporal dynamics of mosquito populations underlying vector-borne disease transmission is key to optimizing control strategies. Many questions remain surrounding the drivers of these dynamics and how they vary between species—questions rarely answerable from individual entomological studies (that typically focus on a single location or species). We develop a novel statistical framework enabling identification and classification of time series with similar temporal properties, and use this framework to systematically explore variation in population dynamics and seasonality in anopheline mosquito time series catch data spanning seven species, 40 years and 117 locations across mainland India. Our analyses reveal pronounced variation in dynamics across locations and between species in the extent of seasonality and timing of seasonal peaks. However, we show that these diverse dynamics can be clustered into four 'dynamical archetypes', each characterized by distinct temporal properties and associated with a largely unique set of environmental factors. Our results highlight that a range of environmental factors including rainfall, temperature, proximity to static water bodies and patterns of land use (particularly urbanicity) shape the dynamics and seasonality of mosquito populations, and provide a generically applicable framework to better identify and understand patterns of seasonal variation in vectors relevant to public health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Variation in individual demographic rates can have large consequences for populations. Female reproductive skew is an example of structured demographic heterogeneity where females have intrinsic qualities that make them more or less likely to breed. The consequences of reproductive skew for population dynamics are poorly understood in non-cooperatively breeding mammals, especially when coupled with other drivers such as poaching. We address this knowledge gap with population viability analyses using an age-specific, female-only, individual-based, stochastic population model built with long-term data for three Kenyan populations of the Critically Endangered eastern black rhino (Diceros bicornis michaeli). There was substantial reproductive skew, with a high proportion of females not breeding or doing so at very low rates. This had a large impact on the projected population growth rate for the smaller population on Ol Jogi. Moreover, including female reproductive skew exacerbates the effects of poaching, increasing the probability of extinction by approximately 70% under a simulated poaching pressure of 5% offtake per year. Tackling the effects of reproductive skew depends on whether it is mediated by habitat or social factors, with potential strategies including habitat and biological management respectively. Investigating and tackling reproductive skew in other species requires long-term, individual-level data collection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Classic population regulation theories usually concern the influence of immediate factors on current populations, but studies investigating the effect of parental environment factors on their offspring populations are scarce. The maternal environments can affect offspring life-history traits across generations, which may affect population dynamics and be a mechanism of population regulation. In cyclical parthenogens, sexual reproduction is typically linked with dormancy, thereby providing a negative feedback to population growth. In this study, we manipulated population sex ratios in the mother's environment to investigate whether this factor affected future population dynamics by regulating offspring sexual reproduction in the rotifer Brachionus calyciflorus. Compared with females in male-biased environments, those in female-biased environments produced fewer mictic (sexual) offspring, and their amictic (asexual) offspring also produced a lower proportion of mictic females at a gradient of population densities. Moreover, populations that were manipulated under male-biased conditions showed significantly smaller population sizes than those under female-biased conditions. Our results indicated that in cyclical parthenogens, mothers could adjust the sexual reproduction of their offspring in response to the current population sex ratio, thus providing fine-scale regulation of population dynamics in addition to population density. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A key principle of the extended phenotype concept is that the benefit of the structures that an animal builds exceeds its cost. However, some contexts may enhance the costs of structures that often represent a benefit, reversing their adaptive nature. In leaf-cutting ant nests, thatched mounds are extended phenotypes that offer a stable microclimate for the growth of the fungus culture. We hypothesized that fires will affect the species that build external, easily flammable thatch mounds (Acromyrmex lobicornis) more than colonies that build subterranean nests in the less-flammable bare ground (Amoimyrmex striatus). We use a stochastic matrix demographic model parameterized with 4 years of data in pre- and post-fire scenarios. Before fires, Ac. lobicornis showed higher stochastic population rate (λs) than Am. striatus. However, fire frequency every 2 years completely reversed this trend, showing population decline only in Ac. lobicornis. Small nests were the stage that most contributed to λs and the most sensitive in all the species and fire scenarios. This illustrates a novel effect of disturbances; the reversion of the adaptive nature of extended phenotypes, which may have strong consequences on population dynamics and assemblage structure through the invert of dominance relationships. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Demographic connectivity is fundamental to the persistence and resilience of metapopulations, but our understanding of the link between reproduction and recruitment is notoriously poor in open-coast marine populations. We provide the first evidence of high local retention and limited connectivity among populations spanning 700 km along an open coast in an upwelling system. Using extensive field measurements of fecundity, population size and settlement in concert with a Bayesian inverse modelling approach, we estimated that, on average, Petrolisthes cinctipes larvae disperse only 6.9 km (±25.0 km s.d.) from natal populations, despite spending approximately six weeks in an open-coast system that was once assumed to be broadly dispersive. This estimate differed substantially from our prior dispersal estimate (153.9 km) based on currents and larval duration and behaviour, revealing the importance of employing demographic data in larval dispersal estimates. Based on this estimate, we predict that demographic connectivity occurs predominantly among neighbouring populations less than 30 km apart. Comprehensive studies of larval production, settlement and connectivity are needed to advance an understanding of the ecology and evolution of life in the sea as well as to conserve ecosystems. Our novel approach provides a tractable framework for addressing these questions for species occurring in discrete coastal populations.

There are numerous examples of phenological shifts that are recognized both as indicators of climate change and drivers of ecosystem change. A pressing challenge is to understand the causal mechanisms by which climate affects phenology. We combined annual population census data and individual longitudinal data (1992-2018) on grey seals, Halicheorus grypus, to quantify the relationship between pupping season phenology and sea surface temperature. A temperature increase of 2°C was associated with a pupping season advance of approximately seven days at the population level. However, we found that maternal age, rather than sea temperature, accounted for changes in pupping date by individuals. Warmer years were associated with an older average age of mothers, allowing us to explain phenological observations in terms of a changing population age structure. Finally, we developed a matrix population model to test whether our observations were consistent with changes to the stable age distribution. This could not fully account for observed phenological shift, strongly suggesting transient modification of population age structure, for example owing to immigration. We demonstrate a novel mechanism for phenological shifts under climate change in long-lived, age- or stage-structured species with broad implications for dynamics and resilience, as well as population management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Phase transitions are an important and extensively studied concept in physics. The insights derived from understanding phase transitions in physics have recently and successfully been applied to a number of different phenomena in biological systems. Here, we provide a brief review of phase transitions and their role in explaining biological processes ranging from collective behaviour in animal flocks to neuronal firing. We also highlight a new and exciting area where phase transition theory is particularly applicable: population collapse and extinction. We discuss how phase transition theory can give insight into a range of extinction events such as population decline due to climate change or microbial responses to stressors such as antibiotic treatment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

All organisms face resource limitations that will ultimately restrict population growth, but the controlling mechanisms vary across ecosystems, taxa, and reproductive strategies. Using four decades of data, we examine how variation in the environment and population density affect reproductive outcomes in a capital-breeding carnivore, the northern elephant seal (Mirounga angustirostris). This species provides a unique opportunity to examine the relative importance of resource acquisition and density-dependence on breeding success. Capital breeders accrue resources over large temporal and spatial scales for use during an abbreviated reproductive period. This strategy may have evolved, in part, to confer resilience to short-term environmental variability. We observed density-dependent effects on weaning mass, and maternal age (experience) was more important than oceanographic conditions or maternal mass in determining offspring weaning mass. Together these findings show that the mechanisms controlling reproductive output are conserved across terrestrial and marine systems and vary with population dynamics, an important consideration when assessing the effect of extrinsic changes, such as climate change, on a population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mounting evidence suggests that patterns of local relatedness can change over time in predictable ways, a process termed kinship dynamics. Kinship dynamics may occur at the level of the population or social group, where the mean relatedness across all members of the population or group changes over time, or at the level of the individual, where an individual's relatedness to its local group changes with age. Kinship dynamics are likely to have fundamental consequences for the evolution of social behaviour and life history because they alter the inclusive fitness payoffs to actions taken at different points in time. For instance, growing evidence suggests that individual kinship dynamics have shaped the evolution of menopause and age-specific patterns of helping and harming. To date, however, the consequences of kinship dynamics for social evolution have not been widely explored. Here we review the patterns of kinship dynamics that can occur in natural populations and highlight how taking a kinship dynamics approach has yielded new insights into behaviour and life-history evolution. We discuss areas where analysing kinship dynamics could provide new insight into social evolution, and we outline some of the challenges in predicting and quantifying kinship dynamics in natural populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Assessing the non-lethal effects of disturbance from human activities is necessary for wildlife conservation and management. However, linking short-term responses to long-term impacts on individuals and populations is a significant hurdle for evaluating the risks of a proposed activity. The Population Consequences of Disturbance (PCoD) framework conceptually describes how disturbance can lead to changes in population dynamics, and its real-world application has led to a suite of quantitative models that can inform risk assessments. Here, we review PCoD models that forecast the possible consequences of a range of disturbance scenarios for marine mammals. In so doing, we identify common themes and highlight general principles to consider when assessing risk. We find that, when considered holistically, these models provide valuable insights into which contextual factors influence a population's degree of exposure and sensitivity to disturbance. We also discuss model assumptions and limitations, identify data gaps and suggest future research directions to enable PCoD models to better inform risk assessments and conservation and management decisions. The general principles explored can help wildlife managers and practitioners identify and prioritize the populations most vulnerable to disturbance and guide industry in planning activities that avoid or mitigate population-level effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Identifying environmental correlates driving space-use strategies can be critical for predicting population dynamics; however, such information can be difficult to attain for small mobile species such as migratory songbirds. We combined radio-telemetry and high-resolution GPS tracking to examine space-use strategies under different moisture gradients for wood thrush (Hylocichla mustelina). We explored the role moisture plays in driving food abundance and, in turn, space-use strategies at a wintering site in Belize across 3 years. Individuals occupying drier habitats experienced lower food abundance and poorer body condition. Using data from our radiotracked study population and GPS tracking from across five breeding populations, we detected low rates of overwinter site persistence across the wood thrush wintering range. Contrary to expectations, individuals in wetter habitats were more likely to engage in permanent mid-winter relocations, up to 148 km. We suggest facultative movements are instead a condition-dependent strategy that enables wintering wood thrush to locate alternative habitat as food availability declines throughout the dry season. Increased aridity is predicted across the wintering range of wood thrush, and future research should delve deeper into understanding how moisture impacts within and between season space-use dynamics and its ultimate impact on the population dynamics of this declining species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Species around the world have suffered collapses, and a key question is why some populations are more vulnerable than others. Traditional conservation biology and evidence from terrestrial species suggest that slow-growing populations are most at risk, but interactions between climate variability and harvest dynamics may alter or even reverse this pattern. Here, we test this hypothesis globally. We use boosted regression trees to analyse the influences of harvesting, species traits and climate variability on the risk of collapse (decline below a fixed threshold) across 154 marine fish populations around the world. The most important factor explaining collapses was the magnitude of overfishing, while the duration of overfishing best explained long-term depletion. However, fast growth was the next most important risk factor. Fast-growing populations and those in variable environments were especially sensitive to overfishing, and the risk of collapse was more than tripled for fast-growing when compared with slow-growing species that experienced overfishing. We found little evidence that, in the absence of overfishing, climate variability or fast growth rates alone drove population collapse over the last six decades. Expanding efforts to rapidly adjust harvest pressure to account for climate-driven lows in productivity could help to avoid future collapses, particularly among fast-growing species.

Supplementary feeding of wildlife is widespread, being undertaken by more than half of households in many countries. However, the impact that these supplemental resources have is unclear, with impacts largely considered to be restricted to urban ecosystems. We reveal the pervasiveness of supplementary foodstuffs in the diet of a wild bird using metabarcoding of blue tit (Cyanistes caeruleus) faeces collected in early spring from a 220 km transect in Scotland with a large urbanization gradient. Supplementary foodstuffs were present in the majority of samples, with peanut (Arachis hypogaea) the single commonest (either natural or supplementary) dietary item. Consumption rates exhibited a distance decay from human habitation but remained high at several hundred metres from the nearest household and continued to our study limit of 1.4 km distant. Supplementary food consumption was associated with a near quadrupling of blue tit breeding density and a 5-day advancement of breeding phenology. We show that woodland bird species using supplementary food have increasingUKpopulationtrends, while species thatdonot, and/orare outcompeted by blue tits, are likely to be declining. We suggest that the impacts of supplementary feeding are larger and more spatially extensive than currently appreciated and could be disrupting population and ecosystem dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Quantifying temporal variation in sex-specific selection on key ecologically relevant traits, and quantifying how such variation arises through synergistic or opposing components of survival and reproductive selection, is central to understanding eco-evolutionary dynamics, but rarely achieved. Seasonal migration versus residence is one key trait that directly shapes spatio-seasonal population dynamics in spatially and temporally varying environments, but temporal dynamics of sex-specific selection have not been fully quantified. We fittedmulti-event capture-recapture models to year-round ring resightings and breeding success data from partially migratory European shags (Phalacrocorax aristotelis) to quantify temporal variation in annual sex-specific selection on seasonal migration versus residence arising through adult survival, reproduction and the combination of both (i.e. annual fitness). We demonstrate episodes of strong and strongly fluctuating selection through annual fitness that were broadly synchronized across females and males. These overall fluctuations arose because strong reproductive selection against migration in several years contrasted with strong survival selection against residence in years with extreme climatic events. These results indicate how substantial phenotypic and genetic variation in migration versus residence could be maintained, and highlight that biologically important fluctuations in selection may not be detected unless both survival selection and reproductive selection are appropriately quantified and combined. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Late Quaternary climatic fluctuations in the Northern Hemisphere had drastic effects on large mammal species, leading to the extinction of a substantial number of them. The giant deer (Megaloceros giganteus) was one of the species that became extinct in the Holocene, around 7660 calendar years before present. In the Late Pleistocene, the species ranged from western Europe to central Asia. However, during the Holocene, its range contracted to eastern Europe and western Siberia, where the last populations of the species occurred. Here, we generated 35 Late Pleistocene and Holocene giant deer mitogenomes to explore the genetics of the demise of this iconic species. Bayesian phylogenetic analyses of the mitogenomes suggested five main clades for the species: three pre-Last Glacial Maximum clades that did not appear in the post-Last Glacial Maximum genetic pool, and two clades that showed continuity into the Holocene. Our study also identified a decrease in genetic diversity starting in Marine Isotope Stage 3 and accelerating during the Last Glacial Maximum. This reduction in genetic diversity during the Last Glacial Maximum, coupled with a major contraction of fossil occurrences, suggests that climate was a major driver in the dynamics of the giant deer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Visual perception is, in part, a function of the ambient illumination spectrum. In aquatic environments, illumination depends upon the water’s optical properties and depth, both of which can change due to anthropogenic impacts: turbidity is increasing in many aquatic habitats, and many species have shifted deeper in response to warming surface waters (known as bathymetric shifts). Although increasing turbidity and bathymetric shifts can result in similarly large changes to a species’ optical environment, no studies have yet examined the impact of the latter on visually mediated interactions. Here, we examine a potential link between climate change and visual perception, with a focus on colour. We discuss (i) what is known about bathymetric shifts; (ii) how the impacts of bathymetric shifts on visual interactions may be distributed across species; (iii) which interactions might be affected; and (iv) the ways that animals have to respond to these changes. As warming continues and temperature fluctuations grow more extreme, many species may move into even deeper waters. There is thus a need for studies that examine how such shifts can affect an organism’s visual world, interfere with behaviour, and impact fitness, population dynamics, and community structure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Temporal variation in the connectivity of populations of migratory animals has not been widely documented, despite having important repercussions for population ecology and conservation. Because the long-distance movements of migratory animals link ecologically distinct and geographically distant areas of the world, changes in the abundance and migratory patterns of species may reflect differential drivers of demographic trends acting over various spatial scales. Using stable hydrogen isotope analyses (δ2H) of feathers from historical museum specimens and contemporary samples obtained in the field, we provide evidence for an approximately 600 km northward shift over 45 years in the breeding origin of a species of songbird of major conservation concern (blackpoll warbler, Setophaga striata) wintering in the foothills of the eastern Andes of Colombia. Our finding mirrors predictions of range shifts for boreal-breeding species under warming climate scenarios and habitat loss in the temperate zone, and underscores likely drivers of widespread declines in populations of migratory birds. Our work also highlights the value of natural history collections to document the effects of global change on biodiversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Age at first reproduction constitutes a key life-history trait in animals and is evolutionarily shaped by fitness benefits and costs of delayed versus early reproduction. The understanding of how intrinsic and extrinsic changes affects age at first reproduction is crucial for conservation and management of threatened species because of its demographic effects on population growth and generation time. For a period of 40 years in the Scandinavian wolf (Canis lupus) population, including the recolonization phase, we estimated age at first successful reproduction (pup survival to at least three weeks of age) and examined how the variation among individuals was explained by sex, population size (from 1 to 74 packs), primiparous or multiparous origin, reproductive experience of the partner and inbreeding. Median age at first reproduction was 3 years for females (n = 60) and 2 years for males (n = 74), and ranged between 1 and 8–10 years of age (n = 297). Female age at first reproduction decreased with increasing population size, and increased with higher levels of inbreeding. The probability for males to reproduce later first decreased, reaching its minimum when the number of territories approached 40–60, and then increased with increasing population size. Inbreeding for males and reproductive experience of parents and partners for both sexes had overall weak effects on age at first reproduction. These results allow for more accurate parameter estimates when modelling population dynamics for management and conservation of small and vulnerable wolf populations, and show how humans through legal harvest and illegal hunting influence an important life-history trait like age at first reproduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evolution might rescue populations from extinction in changing environments. Using experimental evolution with microalgae, we investigated if competition influences adaptation to an abiotic stressor, and vice versa, if adaptation to abiotic change influences competition. In a first set of experiments, we propagated monocultures of five species with and without increasing salt stress for approximately 180 generations. When assayed in monoculture, two of the five species showed signatures of adaptation, that is, lines with a history of salt stress had higher population growth rates at high salt than lines without prior exposure to salt. When assayed in mixtures of species, however, only one of these two species had increased population size at high salt, indicating that competition can alter how adaptation to abiotic change influences population dynamics. In a second experiment, we cultivated two species in monocultures and in pairs, with and without increasing salt. While we found no effect of competition on adaptation to salt, our experiment revealed that evolutionary responses to salt can influence competition. Specifically, one of the two species had reduced competitive ability in the no-salt environment after long-term exposure to salt stress. Collectively, our results highlight the complex interplay of adaptation to abiotic change and competitive interactions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Host heterogeneity is a key driver of host–pathogen dynamics. In particular, the use of treatments against infectious diseases creates variation in quality among hosts, which can have both epidemiological and evolutionary consequences. We present a general theoretical model to highlight the consequences of different imperfect treatments on pathogen prevalence and evolution. These treatments differ in their action on host and pathogen traits. In contrast with previous studies, we assume that treatment coverage can vary in time, as in seasonal or pulsed treatment strategies. We show that periodic treatment strategies can limit both disease spread and virulence evolution, depending on the type of treatment. We also introduce a new method to analytically calculate the selection gradient in periodic environments, which allows our predictions to be interpreted using the concept of reproductive value, and can be applied more generally to analyse eco-evolutionary dynamics in class-structured populations and fluctuating environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research on the 'ecology of fear' posits that defensive prey responses to avoid predation can cause non-lethal effects across ecological scales. Parasites also elicit defensive responses in hosts with associated non-lethal effects, which raises the longstanding, yet unresolved question of how non-lethal effects of parasites compare with those of predators. We developed a framework for systematically answering this question for all types of predator–prey and host–parasite systems. Our framework reveals likely differences in non-lethal effects not only between predators and parasites, but also between different types of predators and parasites. Trait responses should be strongest towards predators, parasitoids and parasitic castrators, but more numerous and perhaps more frequent for parasites than for predators. In a case study of larval amphibians, whose trait responses to both predators and parasites have been relatively well studied, existing data indicate that individuals generally respond more strongly and proactively to short-term predation risks than to parasitism. Apart from studies using amphibians, there have been few direct comparisons of responses to predation and parasitism, and none have incorporated responses to micropredators, parasitoids or parasitic castrators, or examined their long-term consequences. Addressing these and other data gaps highlighted by our framework can advance the field towards understanding how non-lethal effects impact prey/host population dynamics and shape food webs that contain multiple predator and parasite species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spatio-temporally heterogeneous environments may lead to unexpected population dynamics. Knowledge is needed on local properties favouring population resilience at large scale. For pathogen vectors, such as tsetse flies transmitting human and animal African trypanosomosis, this is crucial to target management strategies. We developed a mechanistic spatio-temporal model of the age-structured population dynamics of tsetse flies, parametrized with field and laboratory data. It accounts for density- and temperature-dependence. The studied environment is heterogeneous, fragmented and dispersal is suitability-driven. We confirmed that temperature and adult mortality have a strong impact on tsetse populations. When homogeneously increasing adult mortality, control was less effective and induced faster population recovery in the coldest and temperature-stable locations, creating refuges. To optimally select locations to control, we assessed the potential impact of treating them and their contribution to the whole population. This heterogeneous control induced a similar population decrease, with more dispersed individuals. Control efficacy was no longer related to temperature. Dispersal was responsible for refuges at the interface between controlled and uncontrolled zones, where resurgence after control was very high. The early identification of refuges, which could jeopardize control efforts, is crucial. We recommend baseline data collection to characterize the ecosystem before implementing any measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Homo erectus is the first hominin species with a truly cosmopolitan distribution and resembles recent humans in its broad spatial distribution. The microevolutionary events associated with dispersal and local adaptation may have produced similar population structure in both species. Understanding the evolutionary population dynamics of H. erectus has larger implications for the emergence of later Homo lineages in the Middle Pleistocene. Quantitative genetics models provide a means of interrogating aspects of long-standing H. erectus population history narratives. For the current study, cranial fossils were sorted into six major palaeodemes from sites across Africa and Asia spanning 1.8–0.1 Ma. Three-dimensional shape data from the occipital and frontal bones were used to compare intraspecific variation and test evolutionary hypotheses. Results indicate that H. erectus had higher individual and group variation than Homo sapiens, probably reflecting different levels of genetic diversity and population history in these spatially disperse species. This study also revealed distinct evolutionary histories for frontal and occipital bone shape in H. erectus, with a larger role for natural selection in the former. One scenario consistent with these findings is climate-driven facial adaptation in H. erectus, which is reflected in the frontal bone through integration with the orbits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dispersal polymorphism and mutation play significant roles during biological invasions, potentially leading to evolution and complex behaviour such as accelerating or decelerating invasion fronts. However, life-history theory predicts that reproductive fitness—another key determinant of invasion dynamics—may be lower for more dispersive strains. Here, we use a mathematical model to show that unexpected invasion dynamics emerge from the combination of heritable dispersal polymorphism, dispersal-fitness tradeoffs, and mutation between strains. We show that the invasion dynamics are determined by the trade-off relationship between dispersal and population growth rates of the constituent strains. We find that invasion dynamics can be ‘anomalous’ (i.e. faster than any of the strains in isolation), but that the ultimate invasion speed is determined by the traits of, at most, two strains. The model is simple but generic, so we expect the predictions to apply to a wide range of ecological, evolutionary, or epidemiological invasions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Growth and survival of larval fishes is highly variable and unpredictable. Our limited understanding of this variation constrains our ability to forecast population dynamics and effectively manage fisheries. Here we show that daily growth rates of a coral reef fish (the sixbar wrasse, Thalassoma hardwicke) are strongly lunar-periodic and predicted by the timing of nocturnal brightness: growth was maximized when the first half of the night was dark and the second half of the night was bright. Cloud cover that obscured moonlight facilitated a ‘natural experiment’, and confirmed the effect of moonlight on growth. We suggest that lunar-periodic growth may be attributable to light-mediated suppression of diel vertical migrations of predators and prey. Accounting for such effects will improve our capacity to predict the future dynamics of marine populations, especially in response to climate-driven changes in nocturnal cloud cover and intensification of artificial light, which could lead to population declines by reducing larval survival and growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We consider situations where repeated invasion attempts occur from a source population into a receptor population over extended periods of time. The receptor population contains two locations that provide different expected offspring numbers to invaders. There is demographic stochasticity in offspring numbers. In addition, temporal variation causes local invader fitnesses to vary. We show that effects of environmental autocorrelation on establishment success depend on spatial covariance of the receptor subpopulations. In situations with a low spatial covariance this effect is positive, whereas high spatial covariance and/or high migration probabilities between the subpopulations causes the effect to be negative. This result reconciles seemingly contradictory results from the literature concerning effects of temporal variation on population dynamics with demographic stochasticity. We study an example in the context of genetic introgression, where invasions of cultivar plant genes occur through pollen flow from a source population into wild-type receptor populations, but our results have implications in a wider range of contexts, such as the spread of exotic species, metapopulation dynamics and epidemics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

According to classic theory, species' population dynamics and distributions are less influenced by species interactions under harsh climatic conditions compared to under more benign climatic conditions. In alpine and boreal ecosystems in Fennoscandia, the cyclic dynamics of rodents strongly affect many other species, including ground-nesting birds such as ptarmigan. According to the 'alternative prey hypothesis' (APH), the densities of ground-nesting birds and rodents are positively associated due to predator–prey dynamics and prey-switching. However, it remains unclear how the strength of these predator-mediated interactions change along a climatic harshness gradient in comparison with the effects of climatic variation. We built a hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate the sensitivity of ptarmigan populations to interannual variation in climate and rodent occurrence across Norway during 2007–2017. Ptarmigan abundance was positively linked with rodent occurrence, consistent with the APH. Moreover, we found that the link between ptarmigan abundance and rodent dynamics was strongest in colder regions. Our study highlights how species interactions play an important role in population dynamics of species at high latitudes and suggests that they can become even more important in the most climatically harsh regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]