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Seasonal environmental conditions shape the behavior and life history of virtually all organisms. Climate change is modifying these seasonal environmental conditions, which threatens to disrupt population dynamics. It is conceivable that climatic changes may be beneficial in one season but result in detrimental conditions in another because life-history strategies vary between these time periods. We analyzed the temporal trends in seasonal survival of yellow-bellied marmots ( Marmota flaviventer ) and explored the environmental drivers using a 40-y dataset from the Colorado Rocky Mountains (USA). Trends in survival revealed divergent seasonal patterns, which were similar across age-classes. Marmot survival declined during winter but generally increased during summer. Interestingly, different environmental factors appeared to drive survival trends across age-classes. Winter survival was largely driven by conditions during the preceding summer and the effect of continued climate change was likely to be mainly negative, whereas the likely outcome of continued climate change on summer survival was generally positive. This study illustrates that seasonal demographic responses need disentangling to accurately forecast the impacts of climate change on animal population dynamics., Competing Interests: The authors declare no competing interest.

Annual reproductive success and senescence patterns vary substantially among individuals in the wild. However, it is still seldom considered that senescence may not only affect an individual but also affect age-specific reproductive success in its offspring, generating transgenerational reproductive senescence. We used long-term data from wild yellow-bellied marmots ( Marmota flaviventer ) living in two different elevational environments to quantify age-specific reproductive success of daughters born to mothers differing in age. Contrary to prediction, daughters born to older mothers had greater annual reproductive success on average than daughters born to younger mothers, and this translated into greater lifetime reproductive success. However, in the favorable lower elevation environment, daughters born to older mothers also had greater age-specific decreases in annual reproductive success. In the harsher higher elevation environment on the other hand, daughters born to older mothers tended to die before reaching ages at which such senescent decreases could be observed. Our study highlights the importance of incorporating environment-specific transgenerational parent age effects on adult offspring age-specific life-history traits to fully understand the substantial variation observed in senescence patterns in wild populations., Competing Interests: The authors declare no competing interest.

The yellow-bellied marmot (Marmota flaviventris) is a social, ground-dwelling squirrel that lives either individually or in kin groups of from two to five adult females. Philopatry and daughter recruitment lead to the formation and persistence of matrilines at habitat sites. By using 37 years of demographic data for 12 habitat sites, we could determine long-term trends in the effects of group size on two measures of fitness, survivorship and net reproductive rate, which otherwise are obscured by annual fluctuations in these measures. Both size and number of matrilines varied among sites and survivorship and net reproductive rate varied among sites and among matriline sizes. The role of social organization was explored further by examining the effect of matriline size, averaged over all years and sites, on fitness. For both survivorship and net reproductive rate the relationship with matriline size was curvilinear. Fitness increased with the increase in matriline size and then decreased in the largest groups. Decreased fitness in matrilines of four or five was associated with agonistic behavior, a large number of 2-year-old females in the social group, and reproductive suppression. There is no evidence that females acted to increase their fitness by increasing indirect fitness; i.e., by assisting relatives, but attempted to increase direct fitness. Direct fitness increased when mortality and fission of large matrilines reduced group size and the surviving females increased reproduction.

Calendar date of the beginning of the growing season at high altitude in the Colorado Rocky Mountains is variable but has not changed significantly over the past 25 years. This result differs from growing evidence from low altitudes that climate change is resulting in a longer growing season, earlier migrations, and earlier reproduction in a variety of taxa. At our study site, the beginning of the growing season is controlled by melting of the previous winter's snowpack. Despite a trend for warmer spring temperatures the average date of snowmelt has not changed, perhaps because of the trend for increased winter precipitation. This disjunction between phenology at low and high altitudes may create problems for species, such as many birds, that migrate over altitudinal gradients. We present data indicating that this already may be true for American robins, which are arriving 14 days earlier than they did in 1981; the interval between arrival date and the first date of bare ground has grown by 18 days. We also report evidence for an effect of climate change on hibernation behavior; yellow-bellied marmots are emerging 38 days earlier than 23 years ago, apparently in response to warmer spring air temperatures. Migrants and hibernators may experience problems as a consequence of these changes in phenology, which may be exacerbated if climate models are correct in their predictions of increased winter snowfall in our study area. The trends we report for earlier formation of permanent snowpack and for a longer period of snow cover also have implications for hibernating species.