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The need for faster and deeper transitions toward more sustainable development pathways is now widely recognized. How to meet that need has been at the center of a growing body of academic research and real-world policy implementation. This paper presents our perspective on some of the most powerful insights that have emerged from this ongoing work. In particular, we highlight insights on how sustainability transitions can be usefully conceptualized, how they come about and evolve, and how they can be shaped and guided through deliberate policy interventions. Throughout the paper, we also highlight some of the many how questions that remain unresolved and on which progress would be especially helpful for the pursuit of sustainable development. Our approach to these "how" questions on sustainability transitions draws on two strands of solution-driven research and policy advice: one emerging from studies of how human societies interact with nature and the other emerging from studies of how those societies interact with their technologies. Consumption-production systems have been a focus of extensive work in both strands. To help build bridges between them, we recently brought together a cross-section of relevant scholars for a PNAS Special Feature on "Sustainability transitions in consumption-production systems." Their contributions are summarized in a companion paper we have written to introduce the Special Feature [F. W. Geels, F. Kern, W. C. Clark, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. (2023)]. We draw on that work in the Perspective we present here as well as our reading of the relevant literatures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Implementing electromobility is a central component in the de-carbonization of personal mobility. In recent years, the absolute number of electric vehicles (EVs) and their market share has increased sharply in many countries. This paper focuses on Norway, a pioneer market for EVs that other countries can learn from. The analysis highlights how a combination of local and national policies over a 30-y period, which targeted both industry development and vehicle demand, were important drivers of this development. It also highlights the importance of advocacy groups and strong networks in promoting EVs, as well as changes in user preferences. The paper demonstrates how the EV diffusion has been driven by alignments of multiple processes across different levels, involving interactions between multiple actors and social groups with different interests and views about desirable futures as described by the multi-level perspective (MLP). Building on the MLP, the study of EV diffusion in Norway illustrates how niches are often sustained through demonstrations, experimentation, strategic alliances, and actors securing favorable political and economic conditions. Further, it shows how local or national niches may depend on international regime actors, such as the car manufacturing industry and policies developed abroad. The paper also explores how the introduction of EVs has opened for wider effects, including innovation within production-consumption systems beyond mobility. Based on this analysis, we argue for a nuanced perspective on the relationship between incremental, regime-internal innovation, and wider transformative changes, where the merits of societal learning and experience with battery electricity for transportation are highlighted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Growth models with resources and environmental externalities typically assume that planet Earth is a closed economy. However, private firms like Blue Origin and SpaceX have reduced the cost of rocket launches by a factor of 20 over the last decade. What if these costs continue to decline, making mining from asteroids or the moon feasible? What would be the implications for economic growth and the environment? This paper provides stylized facts about cost trends, geology, and the environmental impact of mining on Earth and potentially in Space. We extend a neoclassical growth model to investigate the transition from mining on Earth to Space. We find that such a transition could potentially allow for continued growth of metal use, while limiting environmental and social costs on Earth. Acknowledging the high uncertainty around the topic, our paper provides a starting point for research on how Space mining could contribute to sustainable growth on Earth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A widespread sense of the unsustainability of the food system has taken hold in recent years, leading to calls for fundamental change. The role of animal agriculture is central to many of these debates, leading to interest in the possibility of a "protein transition," whereby the production and consumption of animal-derived foods is replaced with plant-based substitutes or "alternative proteins." Despite the potential sustainability implications of this transition, the developmental trajectories and transformative potential of the associated technologies remain underexplored. This article sheds light on these dynamics by addressing two questions: 1) how have alternative protein innovations developed over the past three decades, and 2) what explains their more recent acceleration? To answer these questions, the article makes an empirical analysis of four alternative protein innovations, and the partial destabilization of the animal agriculture system between 1990 and 2021, guided by the multi-level perspective. The analysis highlights an intensification in corporate engagement with alternative protein development and diffusion. This intensification is judged to be consistent with the beginnings of a wider corporate reorientation, occurring alongside a rise in pressures on the animal agriculture system, notably an increasing scientific consensus and societal awareness of the links between climate change and meat-intensive diets. The paper demonstrates how differences in technological maturity across the niche innovations have resulted in potentially transformative pressures, which are consistent with an emerging sustainability transition, manifesting differently in terms of the extent of diffusion of the alternative protein niches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The role of exogenous shocks in influencing transition processes is of significant interest to a wide variety of research in sustainability science (SS). Such events disturb and interrupt path-dependent processes in sociotechnical systems. Sometimes this can lead to radical departures from existing trajectories, while at other times existing systems can be more resilient, adapting, or reconfiguring in response to a shock. In this paper, we explore the role that exogenous shocks can have on institutional change. The sustainability transition literature, as shaped by the multilevel perspective, has usually focused on shocks as windows of opportunity (WoO) where alternatives can break through due to strategic action. We offer the perspective of imprinting, which places primary attention on shocks leading to immediate and irreversible institutional change with long-term consequences. The usefulness of this concept is explored by examining the impact of two major shocks to the energy system: World War II and the 1973 oil crisis. It is concluded that the imprinting concept enables analysis that is attentive to how the underlying institutions of a system can be rapidly and deeply altered by the dynamics of exogenous shocks. It is argued that imprinting is an important complementary concept, next to windows of opportunity, for sustainability science research aiming to understand the period of turbulence we are living through. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urbanization can challenge sustainable development if it produces unequal outcomes. Infrastructure is an important urbanization dimension, providing services to support diverse urban activities. However, it can lock in unequal outcomes due to its durable nature. This paper studies inequalities in infrastructure distributions to derive insights into the structure and characteristics of unequal outcomes associated with urbanization. We analyzed infrastructure inequalities in two emerging economies in the Global South: India and South Africa. We developed and applied an inequality measure to understand the structure of inequality in infrastructure provisioning (based on census data) and infrastructure availability (based on satellite nighttime lights [NTLs] data). Consistent with differences in economic inequality, results show greater inequalities in South Africa than in India and greater urban inequalities than rural inequalities. Nevertheless, inequalities in urban infrastructure provisioning and infrastructure availability increase from finer to coarser spatial scales. NTL-based inequality measurements additionally show that inequalities are more concentrated at coarse spatial scales in India than in South Africa. Finally, results show that urban inequalities in infrastructure provisioning covary with urbanization levels conceptualized as a multidimensional phenomenon, including demographic, economic, and infrastructural dimensions. Similarly, inequalities in urban infrastructure availability increase monotonically with infrastructure development levels and urban population size. Together, these findings underscore infrastructure inequalities as a feature of urbanization and suggest that understanding urban inequalities requires applying an inequality lens to urbanization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land use is central to addressing sustainability issues, including biodiversity conservation, climate change, food security, poverty alleviation, and sustainable energy. In this paper, we synthesize knowledge accumulated in land system science, the integrated study of terrestrial social-ecological systems, into 10 hard truths that have strong, general, empirical support. These facts help to explain the challenges of achieving sustainability in land use and thus also point toward solutions. The 10 facts are as follows: 1) Meanings and values of land are socially constructed and contested; 2) land systems exhibit complex behaviors with abrupt, hard-to-predict changes; 3) irreversible changes and path dependence are common features of land systems; 4) some land uses have a small footprint but very large impacts; 5) drivers and impacts of land-use change are globally interconnected and spill over to distant locations; 6) humanity lives on a used planet where all land provides benefits to societies; 7) land-use change usually entails trade-offs between different benefits--"win-wins" are thus rare; 8) land tenure and land-use claims are often unclear, overlapping, and contested; 9) the benefits and burdens from land are unequally distributed; and 10) land users have multiple, sometimes conflicting, ideas of what social and environmental justice entails. The facts have implications for governance, but do not provide fixed answers. Instead they constitute a set of core principles which can guide scientists, policy makers, and practitioners toward meeting sustainability challenges in land use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We demonstrate how programmable shape evolution and deformation can be induced in plant-based natural materials through standard digital printing technologies. With nonallergenic pollen paper as the substrate material, we show how specific geometrical features and architectures can be custom designed through digital printing of patterns to modulate hygrophobicity, geometry, and complex shapes. These autonomously hygromorphing configurations can be "frozen" by postprocessing coatings to meet the needs of a wide spectrum of uses and applications. Through computational simulations involving the finite element method and accompanying experiments, we develop quantitative insights and a general framework for creating complex shapes in eco-friendly natural materials with potential sustainable applications for scalable manufacturing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hydropower has been the leading source of renewable energy across theworld, accounting for up to 71% of this supply as of 2016. This capacity was built up in North America and Europe between 1920 and 1970 when thousands of dams were built. Big dams stopped being built in developed nations, because the best sites for dams were already developed and environmental and social concerns made the costs unacceptable. Nowadays, more dams are being removed in North America and Europe than are being built. The hydropower industry moved to building dams in the developing world and since the 1970s, began to build even larger hydropower dams along the Mekong River Basin, the Amazon River Basin, and the Congo River Basin. The same problems are being repeated: disrupting river ecology, deforestation, losing aquatic and terrestrial biodiversity, releasing substantial greenhouse gases, displacing thousands of people, and altering people's livelihoods plus affecting the food systems, water quality, and agriculture near them. This paper studies the proliferation of large dams in developing countries and the importance of incorporating climate change into considerations of whether to build a dam along with some of the governance and compensation challenges. We also examine the overestimation of benefits and underestimation of costs along with changes that are needed to address the legitimate social and environmental concerns of people living in areas where dams are planned. Finally, we propose innovative solutions that can move hydropower toward sustainable practices together with solar, wind, and other renewable sources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fundamental transitions in natural resources technologies, institutions, and management approaches are often difficult to see in advance, or even in the midst, of actual changes. Such a transformation now appears to be underway for freshwater resources, driven by increasingly severe water-related crises around the world. These include mismatches between supply and demand; the continued failure to meet basic human needs for water and sanitation; expanding ecological degradation due to extraction of water from natural systems and human-caused climate changes; the development of new technologies for using, treating, monitoring, and reporting on water use; new conceptual work; and growing attention given to water issues by the public and scientific communities. Similar transitions, with additional implications for water, also appear to be underway in the energy and climate fields. For such transitions to be successful, it is important to understand what drives deep changes in the perceptions, management, and use of natural resources; the factors that encourage or discourage changes; and whether strategies can be developed to improve and accelerate those changes that lead to social, economic, and environmental sustainability goals. This paper addresses the concept of resource or environmental transitions in the context of freshwater; reviews theories, data, and frameworks for identifying and analyzing transitions; offers some examples; and identifies key policies to help manage effective and successful transitions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper evaluates current stakeholder involvement (SI) practices in science through a web-based survey among scholars and researchers engaged in sustainability or transition research. It substantiates previous conceptual work with evidence from practice by building on four ideal types of SI in science. The results give an interesting overview of the varied landscape of SI in sustainability science, ranging from the kinds of topics scientists work on with stakeholders, over scientific trade-offs that arise in the field, to improvements scientists wish for. Furthermore, the authors describe a discrepancy between scientists' ideals and practiceswhenworking with stakeholders. On the conceptual level, the data reflect that the democratic type of SI is the predominant one concerning questions on the understanding of science, the main goal, the stage of involvement in the research process, and the science-policy interface. The fact that respondents expressed agreement to several types shows they are guided by multiple and partly conflicting ideals when working with stakeholders. We thus conclude that more conceptual exchange between practitioners, as well as more qualitative research on the concepts behind practices, is needed to better understand the stakeholder-scientist nexus. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Humans challenge the phenotypic, genetic, and cultural makeup of species by affecting the fitness landscapes on which they evolve. Recent studies show that cities might play a major role in contemporary evolution by accelerating phenotypic changes in wildlife, including animals, plants, fungi, and other organisms. Many studies of ecoevolutionary change have focused on anthropogenic drivers, but none of these studies has specifically examined the role that urbanization plays in ecoevolution or explicitly examined its mechanisms. This paper presents evidence on the mechanisms linking urban development patterns to rapid evolutionary changes for species that play important functional roles in communities and ecosystems. Through a metaanalysis of experimental and observational studies reporting more than 1,600 phenotypic changes in species across multiple regions, we ask whether we can discriminate an urban signature of phenotypic change beyond the established natural baselines and other anthropogenic signals. We then assess the relative impact of five types of urban disturbances including habitat modifications, biotic interactions, habitat heterogeneity, novel disturbances, and social interactions. Our study shows a clear urban signal; rates of phenotypic change are greater in urbanizing systems compared with natural and nonurban anthropogenic systems. By explicitly linking urban development to traits that affect ecosystem function, we can map potential ecoevolutionary implications of emerging patterns of urban agglomerations and uncover insights for maintaining key ecosystem functions upon which the sustainability of human well-being depends. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper introduces a special feature on biodiversity conservation and poverty traps. We define and explain the core concepts and then identify four distinct classes of mechanisms that define important interlinkages between biodiversity and poverty. The multiplicity of candidate mechanisms underscores a major challenge in designing policy appropriate across settings. This framework is then used to introduce the ensuing set of papers, which empirically explore these various mechanisms linking poverty traps and biodiversity conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Industrial ecology has revolutionized our understanding of material stocks and flows in our economy and society. For this important discipline to have even deeper impact, we must understand the inherent nature of these materials in terms of human health and the environment. This paper focuses on methods to design synthetic chemicals to reduce their intrinsic ability to cause adverse consequence to the biosphere. Advances in the fields of computational chemistry and molecular toxicology in recent decades allow the development of predictive models that inform the design of molecules with reduced potential to be toxic to humans or the environment. The approach presented herein builds on the important work in quantitative structure-activity relationships by linking toxicological and chemical mechanistic insights to the identification of critical physical-chemical properties needed to be modified. This in silico approach yields design guidelines using boundary values for physiochemical properties. Acute aquatic toxicity serves as a model endpoint in this study. Defining value ranges for properties related to bioavailability and reactivity eliminates 99% of the chemicals in the highest concern for acute aquatic toxicity category. This approach and its future implementations are expected to yield very powerful tools for life cycle assessment practitioners and molecular designers that allow rapid assessment of multiple environmental and human health endpoints and inform modifications to minimize hazard. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Linking knowledge to action requires understanding how decision-makers conceptualize sustainability. This paper empirically analyzes farmer "mental models" of sustainability from three winegrape-growing regions of California where local extension programs have focused on sustainable agriculture. The mental models are represented as networks where sustainability concepts are nodes, and links are established when a farmer mentions two concepts in their stated definition of sustainability. The results suggest that winegrape grower mental models of sustainability are hierarchically structured, relatively similar across regions, and strongly linked to participation in extension programs and adoption of sustainable farm practices. We discuss the implications of our findings for the debate over the meaning of sustainability, and the role of local extension programs in managing knowledge systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite broad interest in using payment for ecosystem services to promote changes in the use of natural capital, there are few expost assessments of impacts of payment for ecosystem services programs on ecosystem service provision, program cost, and changes in livelihoods resulting from program participation. In this paper, we evaluate the Paddy Land-to-Dry Land (PLDL) program in Beijing, China, and associated changes in service providers' livelihood activities. The PLDL is a land use conversion program that aims to protect water quality and quantity for the only surface water reservoir that serves Beijing, China's capital city with nearly 20 million residents. Our analysis integrates hydrologic data with household survey data and shows that the PLDL generates benefits of improved water quantity and quality that exceed the costs of reduced agricultural output. The PLDL has an overall benefit-cost ratio of 1.5, and both downstream beneficiaries and upstream providers gain from the program. Household data show that changes in livelihood activities may offset some of the desired effects of the program through increased expenditures on agricultural fertilizers. Overall, however, reductions in fertilizer leaching from land use change dominate so that the program still has a positive net impact on water quality. This program is a successful example of water users paying upstream landholders to improve water quantity and quality through land use change. Program evaluation also highlights the importance of considering behavioral changes by program participants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The interplay of human actions and natural processes over varied spatial and temporal scales can result in abrupt transitions between contrasting land surface states. Understanding these transitions is a key goal of sustainability science because they can represent abrupt losses of natural capital. This paper recognizes flickering between alternate land surface states in advance of threshold change and critical slowing down in advance of both threshold changes and noncritical transformation. The early warning signals we observe are rises in autocorrelation, variance, and skewness within millimeterresolution thickness measurements of tephra layers deposited in A.D. 2010 and A.D. 2011. These signals reflect changing patterns of surface vegetation, which are known to provide early warning signals of critical transformations. They were observed toward migrating soil erosion fronts, cryoturbation limits, and expanding deflation zones, thus providing potential early warning signals of land surface change. The record of the spatial patterning of vegetation contained in contemporary tephra layers shows how proximity to land surface change could be assessed in the widespread regions affected by shallow layers of volcanic fallout (those that can be subsumed within the existing vegetation cover). This insight shows how we could use tephra layers in the stratigraphie record to identify "near misses," close encounters with thresholds that did not lead to tipping points, and thus provide additional tools for archaeology, sustainability science, and contemporary land management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper introduces urban land teleconnections as a conceptual framework that explicitly links land changes to underlying urbanization dynamics. We illustrate how three key themes that are currently addressed separately in the urban sustainability and land change literatures can lead to incorrect conclusions and misleading results when they are not examined jointly: the traditional system of land classification that is based on discrete categories and reinforces the false idea of a rural-urban dichotomy; the spatial quantification of land change that is based on place-based relationships, ignoring the connections between distant places, especially between urban functions and rural land uses; and the implicit assumptions about path dependency and sequential land changes that underlie current conceptualizations of land transitions. We then examine several environmental "grand challenges" and discuss how urban land teleconnections could help research communities frame scientific inquiries. Finally, we point to existing analytical approaches that can be used to advance development and application of the concept. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Morocco's argan oil is now the most expensive edible oil in the world. High-value argan markets have sparked a bonanza of argan activity. Nongovernmental organizations, international and domestic development agencies, and argan oil cooperatives aggressively promote the win-win aim of simultaneously benefiting local people and the health of the argan forest. This paper tests some of these win-win claims. Analysis of a panel of detailed household data suggests that the boom has enabled some rural households to increase consumption, increase their goat herds (which bodes poorly for the argan forest), and send their girls to secondary school. The boom has predictably made households vigilant guardians of fruit on the tree, but it has not incited investments in longer term tree and forest health. We evaluate landscape-level impacts of these changes using commune-level data on educational enrollment and normalized difference vegetation index data over the period from 1981 to 2009. The results of the mesoanalysis of enrollment are consistent with the microanalysis: the argan boom seems to have improved educational outcomes, especially for girls. Our normalized difference vegetation index analysis, however, suggests that booming argan prices have not improved the forest and may have even induced degradation. We conclude by exploring the dynamic interactions between argan markets, local institutions, rural household welfare, and forest conservation and sustainability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The author discusses the publication of several papers about sustainability science. He mentions that sustainability science is distributed widely and includes many authors beyond the normal focus in centers of traditional science as the U.S., Western Europe and Japan. He states that sustainability science, as contemplated in the classification of the journals where papers are published, is also multidisciplinary which spans the social, technological and natural sciences.