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The acute decline in global biodiversity includes not only the loss of rare species, but also the rapid collapse of common species across many different taxa. The loss of pollinating insects is of particular concern because of the ecological and economic values these species provide. The western bumble bee (Bombus occidentalis) was once common in western North America, but this species has become increasingly rare through much of its range. To understand potential mechanisms driving these declines, we used Bayesian occupancy models to investigate the effects of climate and land cover from 1998 to 2020, pesticide use from 2008 to 2014, and projected expected occupancy under three future scenarios. Using 14,457 surveys across 2.8 million km2 in the western United States, we found strong negative relationships between increasing temperature and drought on occupancy and identified neonicotinoids as the pesticides of greatest negative influence across our study region. The mean predicted occupancy declined by 57% from 1998 to 2020, ranging from 15 to 83% declines across 16 ecoregions. Even under the most optimistic scenario, we found continued declines in nearly half of the ecoregions by the 2050s and mean declines of 93% under the most severe scenario across all ecoregions. This assessment underscores the tenuous future of B. occidentalis and demonstrates the scale of stressors likely contributing to rapid loss of related pollinator species throughout the globe. Scaled-up, international species-monitoring schemes and improved integration of data from formal surveys and community science will substantively improve the understanding of stressors and bumble bee population trends. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Natural phenotypic radiations, with their high diversity and convergence, are well-suited for informing how genomic changes translate to natural phenotypic variation. New genomic tools enable discovery in such traditionally nonmodel systems. Here, we characterize the genomic basis of color pattern variation in bumble bees (Hymenoptera, Apidae, Bombus), a group that has undergone extensive convergence of setal color patterns as a result of Müllerian mimicry. In western North America, multiple species converge on local mimicry patterns through parallel shifts of midabdominal segments from red to black. Using genome-wide association, we establish that a cis-regulatory locus between the abdominal fate-determining Hox genes, abd-A and Abd-B, controls the red-black color switch in a western species, Bombus melanopygus. Gene expression analysis reveals distinct shifts in Abd-B alignedwith the duration of setal pigmentation at the pupal-adult transition. This results in atypical anterior Abd-B expression, a late developmental homeotic shift. Changing expression of Hox genes can have widespread effects, given their important role across segmental phenotypes; however, the late timing reduces this pleiotropy, making Hox genes suitable targets. Analysis of this locus across mimics and relatives reveals that other species follow independent genetic routes to obtain the same phenotypes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]