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The impacts of climate change may be particularly severe for geographically isolated populations, which must adjust through plastic responses or evolve. Here, we study an endangered Arctic plant, Primula nutans ssp. finmarchica , confined to Fennoscandian seashores and showing indications of maladaptation to warming climate. We evaluate the potential of these populations to evolve to facilitate survival in the rapidly warming Arctic (i.e. evolutionary rescue) by utilizing manual crossing experiments in a nested half-sibling breeding design. We estimate G-matrices, evolvability and genetic constraints in traits with potentially conflicting selection pressures. To explicitly evaluate the potential for climate change adaptation, we infer the expected time to evolve from a northern to a southern phenotype under different selection scenarios, using demographic and climatic data to relate expected evolutionary rates to projected rates of climate change. Our results indicate that, given the nearly 10-fold greater evolvability of vegetative than of floral traits, adaptation in these traits may take place nearly in concert with changing climate, given effective climate mitigation. However, the comparatively slow expected evolutionary modification of floral traits may hamper the evolution of floral traits to track climate-induced changes in pollination environment, compromising sexual reproduction and thus reducing the likelihood of evolutionary rescue.

Agricultural land use results in direct biodiversity decline through loss of natural habitat, but may also cause indirect cross-habitat effects on conservation areas. We conducted three landscape-scale field studies on 67 sites to test the hypothesis that mass flowering of oilseed rape (Brassica napus) results in a transient dilution of bees in crop fields, and in increased competition between crop plants and grassland plants for pollinators. Abundances of bumble-bees, which are the main pollinators of the grassland plant Primula veris, but also pollinate oilseed rape (OSR), decreased with increasing amount of OSR. This landscape-scale dilution affected bumble-bee abundances strongly in OSR fields and marginally in grasslands, where bumble-bee abundances were generally low at the time of Primula flowering. Seed set of Primula veris, which flowers during OSR bloom, was reduced by 20 per cent when the amount of OSR within 1 km radius increased from 0 to 15 per cent. Hence, the current expansion of bee-attractive biofuel crops results in transient dilution of crop pollinators, which means an increased competition for pollinators between crops and wild plants. In conclusion, mass-flowering crops potentially threaten fitness of concurrently flowering wild plants in conservation areas, despite the fact that, in the long run, mass-flowering crops can enhance abundances of generalist pollinators and their pollination service.