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Now that we are in the rinderpest post-eradication era, attention is focused on the risk of re-introduction. A semi-quantitative risk assessment identified accidental use of rinderpest virus in laboratories as the most likely cause of re-introduction. However there is little data available on the rates of laboratory biosafety breakdowns in general. In addition, any predictions based on past events are subject to various uncertainties. The aims of this study were therefore to investigate the potential usefulness of historical data for predicting the future risk of rinderpest release via laboratory biosafety breakdowns, and to investigate the impacts of the various uncertainties on these predictions. Data were collected using a worldwide online survey of laboratories, a structured search of ProMED reports and discussion with experts. A stochastic model was constructed to predict the number of laboratory biosafety breakdowns involving rinderpest that will occur over the next 10 years, based on: (1) the historical rate of biosafety breakdowns; and (2) the change in the number of laboratories that will have rinderpest virus in the next 10 years compared to historically. The search identified five breakdowns, all of which occurred during 1970-2000 and all of which were identified via discussions with experts. Assuming that our search for historical events had a sensitivity of over 60% and there has been at least a 40% reduction in the underlying risk (attributable to decreased laboratory activity post eradication) the most likely number of biosafety events worldwide was estimated to be zero over a 10 year period. However, the risk of at least one biosafety breakdown remains greater than 1 in 10,000 unless the sensitivity was at least 99% or the number of laboratories has decreased by at least 99% (based on 2000-2010 during which there were no biosafety breakdowns)., (Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

This paper describes the demise of rinderpest, focussing on the 20th Century and especially the period of the Global Rinderpest Eradication Programme, before proceeding to describe the process of accreditation of rinderpest freedom which is now virtually complete., (Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Eight hundred and thirty five serum samples collected from eight wild artiodactyl species in Kenya and Tanzania between 1982 and 1993 were tested for virus-neutralising (VN) antibodies to rinderpest (RP) virus. Antibodies were found in 116 of 344 buffaloes (Syncerus caffer) but not in the other species including 349 wildebeest (Connochaetes taurinus). Most of the antibody positive buffaloes were from the Maasai Mara-Serengeti ecosystem (MM-SE) and would have had opportunity for exposure to the virus during the epidemic of rinderpest in buffalo confirmed there in 1982. Buffalo born after 1985 did not have antibody indicating that virus stopped circulating in this population at or around that time. This second demonstration that RP virus disappears from the MM-SE is further evidence that these species are not permanent reservoirs of this virus. Re-infection of wildlife is transient and they remain valuable sentinels for infection in nearby domestic livestock.

We report surveillance for rinderpest virus in wildlife populations in three major ecosystems of East Africa: Great Rift Valley, Somali and Tsavo from 1994 to 2003. Three hundred and eighty wild animals were sampled for detection of rinderpest virus, antigen or genome and 1133 sampled for antibody in sera from Kenya, Uganda, Ethiopia and Tanzania from 20 species. This was done modifying for wildlife the internationally recommended standards for rinderpest investigation and diagnosis in livestock. The animals were selected according to susceptibility and preference given to gregarious species, and populations were selected according to abundance, availability and association with livestock. Rinderpest virus, antigen and/or genome were detected in Kenya; within Tsavo, Nairobi and Meru National Parks. Serological results from 864 animals (of which 65% were buffalo) from the region were selected as unequivocal; showing the temporal and spatial aspects of past epidemics. Recent infection has been only in or peripheral to the Somali ecosystem (in Kenya). Our evidence supports the hypothesis that wildlife is not important in the long-term maintenance of rinderpest and that wildlife are infected sporadically most likely from a cattle source, although this needs to be proven in the Somali ecosystem. Wildlife will continue to be a key to monitoring the remaining virus circulation in Africa.

The development of a stochastic, state-transition model of rinderpest transmission dynamics is described using parameter estimates obtained from both laboratory and participatory research. Using serological data, the basic reproduction numbers for lineage-1 rinderpest virus in southern Sudan and for lineage-2 rinderpest virus in Somali livestock were estimated as 4.4 and between 1.2 and 1.9, respectively. The model predictions for the inter-epidemic period in Sudan and Somalia (1.2 and 4.2 years, respectively) were in agreement with analysis of livestock-owner reports (1-2 years and 5 years, respectively).

Based on passive and active data, we report on an epidemiological assessment of surveillance and control of rinderpest (RP) in Uganda between 1990 and 1998. Active data were collected by administration of questionnaires to animal health personnel and their auxiliaries and to stockowners in six selected districts of eastern and northeastern Uganda. Passive data were extracted from vaccination and seromonitoring reports, and from field and laboratory reports. RP events were classified as "confirmed outbreaks", "suspected outbreaks" and "rumours". The classification of 56% of the RP events as "suspected outbreaks" indicates the difficulty in investigating disease outbreaks in Uganda. Although vaccination coverage and seroprevalence were <85% (the recommended target), they nevertheless corresponded well-reflecting effective vaccination. However, because of the low seroprevalence, a sizable population of cattle in Uganda remained at risk of RP. The agreement between the local and national disease reporting systems was low-to-moderate (kappa=0.39); this indicates inefficiency in disease reporting. Risk factors for RP outbreaks were cattle raids and communal grazing. Based on overlaid thematic maps of seroprevalence, vaccination coverage and RP events, close spatial and temporal associations were observed between cattle raids, transhumance and outbreaks and rumours. The high-risk areas were in the eastern and northeastern parts of the country. The results of this study support a phase approach of following the OIE pathway.

Approximately 0.2% (n = 4397) of the bovids (cattle and buffalo) in Sri Lanka were sampled, from June 1992 using a multi-stage sampling procedure. Serum antibodies for the rinderpest virus were detected using the competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. The age, the agroclimatic zone, the management system practiced in the farms, and the vaccination history of the sampled bovids were studied as potential risk factors for being seropositive. The prevalence of rinderpest antibodies in non-vaccinated bovids was 3.5% (n = 4101). The prevalence was higher in the dry zone (9%; where the outbreak emerged in 1987), compared to bovids in the other zones (1%). Seropositive bovids over three years of age were approximately at fourfold higher chances of being seropositive compared to those that were < or = 3 years old. The higher prevalence in older animals is probably due to exposure to the virus during the 1987 epidemic. Bovids from the dry zone (annual rainfall 20 to 35 inches) were at higher odds of being seropositive even after controlling for the possible effects of age, agroclimatic zone, management system and vaccination. The fact that 62% of bovids from the dry zone in this study were reared under extensive management system (free grazing) which allow unrestricted contact between animals, may be the reason for the above finding. A relatively poor response to vaccination observed in vaccinated bovids (seroprevalence = 12%; n = 296) could be attributed to difficulties in maintaining the vaccine at recommended temperatures in the field. This is the first island-wide study on seroprevalence of rinderpest in Sri Lanka.