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Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is an important livestock disease in Thailand, with outbreaks occurring every year. However, the effects of FMD control measures in Thailand have received little research attention. Epidemiological models have been widely used to evaluate FMD outbreak control, but such a model has never been developed for Thailand. We constructed a stochastic between-farm transmission model to evaluate FMD control measures. The epidemiological unit of the model was the farm, which could be in different states: susceptible, latent, undetected infectious, detected infectious and recovered. The between-farm transmission was calculated by the sum of distance-dependent transmission and trade network transmission using parameters derived from FMD outbreaks in 2016-2017. We used this model to simulate the outbreaks with and without the implementation of the following control measures: culling all animals on infected farms, ring vaccination, animal movement restrictions and isolation of infected farms. The control measures were evaluated by estimating the number of secondarily infected farms and the outbreak duration for each scenario. The model was simulated in two study areas located in the Lamphaya Klang subdistrict (high farm density) and the Bo Phloi district (low farm density). The effects of control measures differed between the two study areas. When farm density was high, rigid control measures were required to prevent a major outbreak. Among all options, culling the animals on infected farms resulted in the lowest number of infected farms and the shortest outbreak duration. In contrast, for an area with a low farm density, less stringent control measures were sufficient to control the usually minor outbreaks. The results indicate that different areas require a different approach to control an outbreak of FMD., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that there is no conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

African Swine Fever Virus (ASFV) is the cause of an infectious disease in pigs, which is difficult to control. Long viability of ASFV has been shown for several contaminated materials, especially under low temperature. Therefore, when pigs are exposed to a contaminated environment, new infections could occur without the presence of infectious individuals. For example, a contaminated, poorly washed, empty livestock vehicle poses a risk to the next load of pigs. A quantitative stochastic environmental transmission model was applied to simulate the change in environmental contamination levels over time and calculate the epidemic parameters through exposure-based estimation. Due to the lack of experimental data on environmental transmission at low temperatures, we performed a non-linear fit of the decay rate parameter with temperature based on a literature review. Eventually, 16 scenarios were constructed for different temperature (at 20 °C, 10 °C, 0 °C, or -10 °C) and duration of empty periods (1, 3, 5, or 7 days) after the environment had been contaminated. We quantified the variation in the contamination level of the environment over time and the probability of newly added recipients getting infected when exposed to the environment after the empty period. As a result, the transmission rate parameter for ASFV in pigs was estimated to be 1.53 (0.90, 2.45) day -1 , the decay rate parameter to be 1.02 (0.73, 1.47) day -1 (at 21 °C), and the excretion rate parameter to be 2.70 (2.51, 3.02) day -1 . Without washing and disinfecting, the environment required 9, 14, 24, 54 days to reach a low probability of causing at least one new case (<0.005) at 20 °C, 10 °C, 0 °C, -10 °C, respectively. In addition, the method proposed in this paper enables assessment of the effect of washing and disinfecting on ASFV environmental transmission. We conducted this study to better understand how the viability of ASFV at different temperatures could affect the infectivity in environmental transmission and to improve risk assessment and disease control strategies., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The following authors report specific relationships that could be interpreted as implying a conflict: Lis Alban and Lisbeth Harm Nielsen work for Danish Agriculture & Food Council, which gives advice to farmers and meat producing companies. The remaining authors declare no conflicts of interest., (Copyright © 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Foot-and-mouth disease (FDM) is a disease of cloven-hoofed animals with high costs in animal welfare and animal production. Up to now, transmission between farms in FMD-endemic areas has been given little attention. Between farm transmission can be quantified by distance independent transmission parameters and a spatial transmission kernel indicating the rate of transmission of an infected farm to susceptible farms depending on the distance. The spatial transmission kernel and distance-independent transmission parameters were estimated from data of an FMD outbreak in Lamphaya Klang subdistrict in Thailand between 2016 and 2017. The spatial between-farm transmission rate in Lamphaya Klang subdistrict was higher compared with the spatial between-farm transmission rate from FMDV in epidemic areas. The result can be explained by the larger size of the within-farm outbreak in the endemic area due to no culling. The inclusion of distance-independent transmission parameters improved the model fit, which suggests the presence of transmission sources from outside the area and spread within the area independent of the distance between farms. The remaining distance-dependent transmission was mainly local and could be due to over-the-fence transmission or other forms of contact between nearby farms. Farm size on the kernel positively affects the transmission rate, by increasing both infectivity and susceptibility with increasing farm size. The results showed that both distance-dependent transmission and distance-independent transmission were contributed to FMDV transmission in Lamphaya Klang outbreak. These transmission parameters help to gain knowledge about FMD transmission dynamic in the endemic area., (Copyright © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is an acute or inapparent viral disease of cattle which is endemic in many African and Middle East countries. LSD is one of the major transboundary livestock diseases in Ethiopia. A cross-sectional study using multistage cluster sampling was undertaken in central and north-western parts of Ethiopia with the objectives to estimate seroprevalence and to identify and quantify risk factors contributing to the occurrence of the disease. A total of 2386 cattle sera were sampled from 605 herds and 30 clusters (kebeles) located in 10 districts and tested for presence of LSD virus antibodies using virus neutralization test. All the serum samples were collected from cattle having no history of LSD vaccination. The overall animal level and herd level apparent seroprevalences were 25.4% (95% CI: 23.7-27.2) and 48.9% (95% CI: 44.9-52.9), respectively and varied significantly between districts. The true animal level and herd level prevalences were estimated as 26.5% (95% CI: 24.7-28.3) and 52.6% (95% CI: 48.3-56.9), respectively. At animal level, adult age (OR = 2.44 (95% CI: 1.67-3.55) compared to calf), contact with other animals (OR = 0.41 (95% CI: 0.23-0.74), compared to no contact) and presence of water bodies (OR = 1.61 (95% CI: 1.03-2.52), compared to no such bodies) were identified as the most important risk factors in relation to testing LSD positive. The putative risk factors altitude, breed, sex, and presence of animal trade route showed no significant association with LSD sero-status. Generally, cattle population with many adult animals and that live in wet areas are at highest risk, whereas cattle in frequent contact with other animals and animal species have lower risk, potentially due to a dilution effect of vectors., (Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

The current study was carried out in central and North-western parts of Ethiopia to assess the efficacy of Kenyan sheep pox virus strain vaccine (KS1 O-180) against natural lumpy skin disease (LSD) infection under field conditions by estimating its effect on the transmission and severity of the disease. For this study, an LSD outbreak was defined as the occurrence of at least one LSD case in a specified geographical area. An observational study was conducted on a total of 2053 (1304 vaccinated and 749 unvaccinated) cattle in 339 infected herds located in 10 sub-kebeles and a questionnaire survey was administered to 224 herd owners. Over 60% of the herd owners reported that the vaccine has a low to very low effect in protecting animals against clinical LSD; almost all of them indicated that the vaccine did not induce any adverse reactions. In the unvaccinated group of animals 31.1% were diagnosed with LSD while this was 22.5% in the vaccinated group (P<0.001). Severity of the disease was significantly reduced in vaccinated compared to unvaccinated animals (OR=0.68, 95% CI: 0.49; 0.96). Unvaccinated infected animals were more likely (predicted fraction=0.89) to develop moderate and severe disease than vaccinated infected animals (predicted fraction=0.84). LSD vaccine efficacy for susceptibility was estimated to be 0.46 (i.e. a susceptibility effect of 0.54) while the infectiousness effect of the vaccine was 1.83. In other words, the vaccine reduces the susceptibility by a factor of two and increases infectiousness by approximately the same amount. LSD transmission occurred in both vaccinated and unvaccinated animals, the estimated reproduction ratio (R) was 1.21 in unvaccinated animals compared to 1.19 in vaccinated ones, and not significantly different. In conclusion, KS1 O-180 vaccination, as applied currently in Ethiopia, has poor efficacy in protecting cattle populations against LSD, neither by direct clinical protection nor by reducing transmission, and this signifies the urgent need to either improve the quality of the vaccine or to develop potent alternative vaccines that will confer good protection against LSD., (Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Lumpy skin disease (LSD), an infectious viral disease of cattle, causes considerable financial losses in livestock industry of affected countries. A questionnaire survey with the objectives of determining direct economic losses of LSD (mortality loss, milk loss, draft loss) and treatment costs (medication and labour cost) per affected herd, and assessing the cost effectiveness of vaccination as a means for LSD control was carried out in the central and north-western parts of Ethiopia. From a total of 4430 cattle (in 243 herds) surveyed, 941 animals (in 200 herds) were reported to be infected. The overall morbidity and mortality at animal level were 21.2% and 4.5%, and at herd level these were 82.3% and 24.3%. There was a significant difference in animal level morbidity and mortality between categories of animals. Over 94% of the herd owners ranked LSD as a big or very big problem for cattle production. A large proportion (92.2%) of the herd owners indicated that LSD affects cattle marketing. A median loss of USD 375 (USD 325 in local Zebu and USD 1250 in Holstein-Friesian local Zebu cross cattle) was estimated per dead animal. Median losses per affected lactating cow were USD 141 (USD 63 in local Zebu cows and USD 216 in Holstein-Friesian local Zebu cross cows) and, USD 36 per affected ox. Diagnosis and medication cost per affected animal were estimated at USD 5. The median total economic loss of an LSD outbreak at herd level was USD 1176 (USD 489 in subsistence farm and USD 2735 in commercial farm). At herd level, the largest component of the economic loss was due to mortality (USD 1000) followed by milk loss (USD 120). LSD control costs were the least contributor to herd level losses. The total herd level economic losses in the commercial farm type were significantly higher than in the subsistence farm type. The financial analysis showed a positive net profit of USD 136 (USD 56 for subsistence farm herds and USD 283 for commercial herds) per herd due to LSD vaccine investment. It should be noted that only the noticeable direct costs and treatment costs associated with the disease were considered in the study. Generally, vaccination is economically effective and should be encouraged., (Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Extended-spectrum and AmpC β-lactamase-producing Escherichia coli (ESBL/AmpC-EC) are found throughout the broiler production pyramid. Transmission of resistance between broilers and humans could occur at any point, representing a potential public health issue. Insight in farm transmission dynamics could provide a basis for control, leading to fewer contaminated broilers. The aim was quantifying transmission rates and routes of ESBL/AmpC-EC, and specific phylogenetic groups, in an organic broiler flock without antibiotic use. In each of two consecutive production rounds, 80 randomly chosen broilers were followed individually. Cloacal swabs from these, 20 other randomly chosen broilers, and 11 environmental samples were taken at several moments from arrival till slaughter. ESBL/AmpC-EC were isolated by selective pre-enrichment, and ESBL/AmpC-genes and E. coli phylogenetic groups were determined. Transmission parameters (β) were estimated using a Generalised Linear Model with a susceptible-infectious-susceptible model. Effect of direct broiler contact as compared to contact through the environment and previous carriage c.q. infectious status and their interaction were included as explanatory variables. Multiplying β by the length of the infectious period gives the reproduction ratio (R). On day 1, prevalence was 28.8% (95%CI 19.2-40.0%) and 0.0% (95%CI 0.0-4.5%) among individually followed broilers, in round 1 and 2 respectively. In round 2, the environment was positive before arrival of day-old chicks. After 3 days, almost 100% of broilers and environmental samples were positive in both rounds. Most samples were positive for CTX-M-1 group genes, and A1 and B1 were predominant phylogenetic groups. From day 3 there was a shift towards more phylogenetic groups. R was 1.70 (95%CI 0.55-5.25) for total ESBL/AmpC-EC. Risk for broilers to become infectious was lower if previously infectious (βpreviously infectious=0.02 vs. βnot previously infectious=3.41; P<0.0001). For phylogenetic groups separately, R was 0.88 (95%CI 0.38-2.07), 0.51 (95%CI 0.27-0.98), 0.99 (95%CI 0.65-1.51) for A1, B1 and rest (i.e. A0, B2, D1, D2) groups, respectively. The interaction effect for A1 and B1 was reflected in the fact that when broilers were previous infectious, the environment was relatively more important for transmission of the A1 group, while this was direct contact between broilers for the B1 group. Positive day-old chicks and the environment both play a role in introduction and transmission of ESBL/AmpC-EC in flocks. These results suggest that, even without selective pressure from antibiotics, total ESBL/AmpC-EC persistence, and resulting endemic situation, seem to be caused by shifts in carriage of different phylogenetic groups. It implies that contaminated broilers enter the slaughterhouse., (Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

We investigated which variables possibly influence the amount of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) shed in secretions and excretions by FMDV infected animals, as it is likely that the amount of FMDV shed is related to transmission risk. First, in a separate analysis of laboratory data, we showed that the total amount of FMDV in secretions and excretions from infected animals is highly correlated with maximum titres of FMDV. Next, we collected data from 32 published scientific articles in which FMDV infection experiments were described. The maximum titres of FMDV reported in different secretions and excretions (the response variable) and the experimental conditions in which they occurred (the explanatory variables), were recorded in a database and analyzed using multivariate regression models with and without random effects. In both types of models, maximum titres of FMDV were significantly (p<0.05) associated with types of secretions and excretions, animal species, stage of the disease and days post infection. These results can be used to prioritize biosecurity measures in contingency plans., (Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Local persistence of infection is a key feature of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) among cattle herds in the Republic of Ireland. The aim of this study was to determine the relative importance of 'neighbourhood', specifically farm-to-farm spread and spread from wildlife, in the persistence of bTB by investigating herds having a bTB episode in 2006. A case-control study was conducted on the association between the occurrence of a bTB episode in 2006 and the occurrence of bTB in previous years among neighbouring herd(s) within 1 km, while controlling for each herd's bTB history and other risk factors. Neighbouring herds were grouped into three zones, based on distance, and bTB incidence measures summarised within each zone and by calendar year (2001-2005). The incidence of bTB was associated with an increased animal incidence in two subsets of neighbouring herds: (i) herds directly contiguous during the previous 2 years (attributable fraction=0.20), and (ii) herds at a distance of >25 m in the previous year (attributable fraction=0.19). Other predictors of bTB in a herd in 2006 included the occurrence of a bTB episode within that herd in any of the previous 5 years, herd size, and the number of animals purchased at age greater than 12 months. An infected wildlife source best explains the existence of a "neighbouring herd risk" for bTB at distances greater than 25 m. Further studies will be necessary to determine to what extent neighbouring herd risk within 25 m may be confounded by the same wildlife (badger) source., (Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

To optimize control of an avian influenza outbreak knowledge of within-flock transmission is needed. This study used field data to estimate the transmission rate parameter (beta) and the influence of risk factors on within-flock transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H7N7 virus in the 2003 epidemic in The Netherlands. The estimation is based on back-calculation of daily mortality data to fit a susceptible-infectious-dead format, and these data were analysed with a generalized linear model. This back-calculation method took into account the uncertainty of the length of the latent period, the survival of an infection by some birds and the influence of farm characteristics. After analysing the fit of the different databases created by back-calculation, it could be concluded that an absence of the latency period provided the best fit. The transmission rate parameter (beta) from these field data was estimated at 4.50 per infectious chicken per day (95% CI: 2.68-7.57), which was lower than what was reported from experimental data. In contrast to general belief, none of the studied risk factors (housing system, flock size, species, age of the birds in weeks and date of depopulation) had significant influence on the estimated beta.

We investigated the influence of the spatial pattern of farms on the geographical spread of infectious livestock diseases, such as classical swine fever, foot-and-mouth disease and avian influenza in a combined analytical-numerical approach. Our purpose of this paper is to develop a method to identify the areas in which an infection has the potential to spread in an outbreak. In our model, each infected farm can infect neighbouring farms and the probability of transmission is a function of the inter-farm distance (spatial kernel). Therefore, the density of farms in an area is a good indicator for the probability of a major outbreak. In the epidemiological nomenclature, such density corresponds to a local reproduction ratio and we studied the critical behaviour of both the local density and the local reproduction ratio. We found that a threshold can be defined above which major outbreaks can occur, and the threshold value depends on the spatial kernel. Our expression for the threshold value is derived based on scaling arguments and contains two parameters in the exponents of the equation. We estimated these parameters from numerical results for the spatial spread using one particular mathematical function for the form of the spatial kernel. Subsequently, we show that our expression for the threshold using these estimated parameters agrees very well with numerical results for a number of different other functional forms of the spatial kernel (thus suggesting that we are dealing with universal parameters). As an illustration of the practical relevance of the presented method, we calculated the threshold value for avian influenza in the Netherlands and use it to produce a risk map for this disease.

The herd sensitivity (HSe) and herd specificity (Hsp) of clinical diagnosis of an infection with classical swine fever (CSF) virus during veterinary inspection of breeding sows in a herd was evaluated. Data gathered from visits to herds during the CSF outbreak in 1997-1998 in The Netherlands were used for the analysis. Herds were visited one or more times by the same or by different veterinarians. On the basis of the veterinarians' reports, each visit was coded as 0 (negative clinical diagnosis) or 1 (positive clinical diagnosis). The HSe for clinical diagnosis of CSF was modelled as a function of days elapsed since introduction of the virus. The moment of introduction of the CSF virus in the CSF-positive herds was unknown, so for each herd, a probability distribution for the unknown number of days since introduction was derived from serum samples collected at depopulation. The information from the reports of the veterinarians and from the test results of the serum samples at depopulation was combined in a Bayesian analysis. Data from CSF-negative herds were analysed to estimate HSp of clinical diagnosis of CSF. The HSe of clinical diagnosis was 0.5 at 37 days after virus introduction (95% CI: 31, 45) and reached 0.9 at 47 days after virus introduction (95% CI: 41, 54). The estimated herd specificity was 0.72 (95% CI: 0.64, 0.79). Dependence of HSe and HSp on characteristics of the veterinarians and the herds also was studied. Specialisation of the veterinarian significantly, although not markedly, affected the HSe.