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Fluctuations in birth rates in developed countries have been considerably less regular than many explanatory theories suggest. This paper argues that social interaction, i.e., the dependence of individuals' fertility decisions on the fertility behavior of other population members, is relevant even in developed countries. A formal model for investigating the static and dynamic consequences of social interaction for fertility is developed, and its aggregate implications are tested using a Markov switching regression model. The findings show that social interaction can lead to fluctuations in birth rates that are swift and difficult to foresee, and that these fluctuations are likely to be asymmetric: spells of low fertility have a considerably higher persistence than spells of high fertility. The paper suggests that high birth rates are likely to be followed by spells of low fertility. Transitions from low to high fertility occur at a substantially lower rate than transitions in the opposite direction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The classic theory used to explain the demographic transition assumes that mortality is the key explanatory variable influencing the decline in fertility. However, the empirical results obtained in what is known as the Princeton European Fertility Project have led many specialists to question this assumption. Using both national and provincial aggregated data for 25 countries over a long time span, the analysis reported in this paper found that mortality does indeed play a fundamental role in accounting for the main demographic changes that occurred both before and during the transitional period. Others’ research based on individual data has shown clearly that the number of surviving children was indeed an important factor for reproductive decisions. My analysis, using aggregated data, reached largely similar conclusions regarding the role of mortality in changing reproductive trends, via its impact on nuptiality and marital fertility at different stages of the demographic transition. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

in this paper we take a different approach from other authors to the study of differences between the mortality of the two sexes in the USSR. First, we use measures of mortality that are not sensitive to the most common types of error in data and that reflect experience in an age range that is important from a policy perspective: the working ages. Secondly, we measure variation in mortality between regions of the USSR. Thirdly, we compare these regional mortality trends with experience in 33 developed countries. The sex differential in mortality in the USSR is an amalgam of very different regional patterns. its size and rate of change are more extreme in the USSR than in other countries, and are mainly due to the poor and rapidly worsening mortality of men in the Russian Republic. But the widening sex differentials and increasing mortality of men in the older working ages in Soviet regions are similar to trends in many other developed countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper offers an empirical and analytic foundation for regarding period life expectancy as a lagged indicator of the experience of real cohorts in populations experiencing steady improvement in mortality. We find that current period life expectancy in the industrialized world applies to cohorts born some 40-50 years ago. Lags track an average age at which future years of life are being gained, in a sense that we make precise. Our findings augment Ryder's classic results on period-cohort translation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The performance of format demographic feedback models, like Ronald Lee's, provides a test of whether theories of endogenous fertility adjustment, like Richard Easterlin's, can explain the cyclic swings in U.S, and other births that they were designed to explain. This paper shows how the specification of a demographic feedback model determines its ability to sustain cycles of a given period and amplitude observed in data. Only a few of the many versions of Easterlinastyle theories imply formal models which do prove capable of matching U.S. targets, and then only by narrow margins. The general methods presented here are suitable for a broad investigation of the possible role of age- specific feedback in the diversity of more and less cyclic patterns in birth series in the developed world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides a temporal and spatial perspective on a variety of household forms in present-day Europe. Compared with the situation in pre-industrial England, many more people now live on their own but there are some surprising continuities in household forms. Notably, pre-industrial households were no more likely than present- day ones to include distant relatives, and the recent rise in the proportion of one-person families has simply returned the position to that produced by early widowhood in the seventeenth century. Nor has the general increase during recent decades in the proportion of one-person households reduced the variation within Europe in the frequency of living alone which remains much less likely in southern and parts of eastern Europe than in western Europe and Scandinavia. A more thorough comparative exercise is hampered by inconsistencies in the design of tables used to illustrate household types in different countries, and it is suggested that a standard set of tables should be agreed and produced for different national populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cross-sectional data and long-period time series data have generally shown an inverse relationship between income and fertility. But short-period time series data over the business cycle have shown a direct relationship. The first part of this paper resolves this apparent paradox by showing that it arises from a statistical illusion-specification bias due to omitted lagged variables. The second part of the paper then considers the likely unconditional effect of income on fertility in several sorts of situations: (a) secular income increase in less developed countries; (b) cyclical income change in industrialized countries; (c) secular income increase in industrialized countries; and (d) incentive payments for higher and lower fertility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the early 1980s, it has been accepted widely that there is a Far Eastern pattern of mortality, a pattern characterized by excessively high death rates among older men relative to death rates among younger men and among women. It has been regarded as a unique regional mortality pattern, applying primarily to Far Eastern populations. A re-examination of the mortality data of some Far Eastern populations reveals that changes in both age patterns of and sex differentials in mortality have been widely observed. Further, mortality patterns similar to the so-called Far Eastern mortality model have been found in many other populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The economic implications of increasing life expectancy are important concerns for governments in developed countries. The aims of this study were as follows: (i) to forecast mortality for 14 developed countries from 2010 to 2050, using the Poisson Common Factor Model; (ii) to project the effects of the forecast mortality patterns on support ratios; and (iii) to calculate labour force participation increases which could offset these effects. The forecast gains in life expectancy correlate negatively with current fertility. Pre-2050 support ratios are projected to fall most in Japan and east-central and southern Europe, and least in Sweden and Australia. A post-2050 recovery is projected for most east-central and southern European countries. The increases in labour force participation needed to counterbalance the effects of mortality improvement are greatest for Japan, Poland, and the Czech Republic, and least for the USA, Canada, Netherlands, and Sweden. The policy implications are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Life expectancy is a measure of how long people are expected to live and is widely used as a measure of human development. Variations in the measure reflect not only the process of ageing but also the impacts of such events as epidemics, wars, and economic recessions. Since 1950, the influence of these events in the most developed countries has waned and life expectancy continues to lengthen unabated. As a result, it has become more difficult to forecast long-run trends accurately, or identify possible upper limits. We present new methods for comparing past improvements in life expectancy and also future prospects, using data from five developed, low-mortality countries. We consider life expectancy in 10-year age intervals rather than over the remaining lifetime, and show how natural limits to life expectancy can be used to extrapolate trends. We discuss the implications and compare our approach with other commonly used methods. Supplementary material for this article is available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2014.972433 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relative income–health hypothesis postulates that income distribution is an important determinant of population health, but the age and sex patterns of this association are not well known. We tested the relative income–health hypothesis using panel data collected for 21 developed countries over 30 years. Net of trends in gross domestic product per head and unobserved period and country factors, income inequality measured by the Gini index is positively associated with the mortality of males and females at ages 1–14 and 15–49, and with the mortality of females at ages 65–89 albeit less strongly than for the younger age groups. These findings suggest that policies to decrease income inequality may improve health, especially that of children and young-to-middle-aged men and women. The mechanisms behind the income inequality–mortality association remain unknown and should be the focus of future research. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

We use an age-period-cohort (APC) model to estimate the contribution of smoking-related mortality to cohort changes in adult mortality in Britain since 1950. We show that lung cancer and overall mortality can be satisfactorily modelled using cohort relative risk and a fixed age pattern. The results of the model suggest that smoking by itself can account for a substantial fraction of change in cohort mortality for those born around the first half of the twentieth century. In particular, smoking provides an explanation for the higher-than-average improvement in the mortality of both males and females born around 1930. Our confidence in the correctness of the results of the models is strengthened by the fact that they are very similar to those of the Peto–Lopez and Preston–Glei–Wilmoth models that estimate the contribution of smoking-related to overall mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Levels of childlessness reported by the same cohorts of women and surveyed by the British General Household Survey increase with age by over 50 per cent between their early 40s and their late 50s for women born in the early 1940s. Yet the reported mean fertility of parous women remains constant with increasing age. Similar results hold within sub-groups such as different educational and marital status groups. Possible reasons for these findings include declining comparability of the base population over time due to differential migration, mortality, or institutionalization, changes in survey design and content, and differential non-response by childless and parous women. The evidence shows that these are not adequate explanations. The most likely reason is deliberate under-reporting of childbearing among older cohorts of women. The findings have implications for the interpretation of retrospective data in surveys and for the availability of informal care for older people. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Leaving school prematurely is often claimed to be among the most negative consequences of early marriage and pregnancy for girls in less developed countries. However, an analysis of the relative frequency with which these events actually occur or are named as reasons for leaving school reveals that, at least in the case of francophone Africa, they explain no more than 20 per cent of dropouts. To the extent that demographic events trump school or family factors as determinants of school-leaving, our data indicate that it is union formation - defined by the DHS as first marriage or cohabitation - rather than childbirth that is more likely to have this effect. 'Schoolgirl pregnancy' typically accounts for only between 5 and 10 per cent of girls' departures from school. Furthermore, the risks of leaving school because of pregnancy or marriage have declined over time with the decline in rates of early marriage and childbearing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although twins constitute only about 2.4 per cent of total births in less developed countries, they account for about 12 per cent of neonatal deaths and about nine per cent of infant deaths. Twin mortality in less developed countries has almost never been analysed systematically. We examine survival among twins as contrasted with that among singleton births by using 2692 twin observations pooled from 26 standardized Demographic and Health Surveys. Weakened by gestational and other biological complications, twins seem to be more vulnerable to detrimental demographic and household socio-economic influences than singletons. Twinning tends to amplify, or at least retain, whatever group differences exist among singleton births. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents a discussion related to tubal sterilization. Over the past decades sterilization has become the most widely used contraceptive method in both developing and developed countries. Researchers estimate that by 1985, over 100 million couples worldwide had undergone contraceptive sterilization. Numerous authors have reported generally high levels of satisfaction and low levels of regret among couples who had undergone the procedure. In most studies in Europe, Latin America, North America and Oceania regret rates of below ten per cent have been reported.

A discussion of the surprising phenomenon of declining life expectancy in a highly developed country such as the Soviet Union during the 1970s shows that this result was probably due only in a small part to `true' causal changes in the conditions of living. At least equally important is the weaknesses of the measure of life expectancy by itself. The logical difference between period and cohort measurement is one part of the explanation. Another important factor is the adverse selection of risks by war which makes international and intertemporal comparisons less valuable. Factors like population redistribution or changes in the registration also contribute to the explanation. Thus; life expectancy (in particular period life expectancy) should not, without closer consideration, be accepted as a reliable indicator of human welfare under such circumstances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An examination of recent fertility movements in 15 industrialized countries shows that in all of them fertility has tended to fall since 1965, and that there has been a tendency for it to decline to a level never previously observed in peacetime. In countries with the lowest fertility there have recently been some signs of stabilization. Changes in the distribution of ages at maternity have reinforced this trend; mean completed family size has been affected less. We have used weighted averages to calculate monthly fertility rates in an endeavour to pinpoint turning points more precisely. Such indices may also be used to describe seasonal movements in fertility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article an attempt is made to assess the major health problems of the second half of the twentieth century in developed countries, the methods appropriate to these problems, and the pattern of medical services necessary to deal with them. From an examination of mortality and morbidity trends it is suggested that the most important problems are likely to be the mortality, malformation and disability established before birth, mental illness, and the disease and disability associated with aging. Reasons are given for doubting whether control of breeding, the method that has contributed greatly to the improvement of plants and other animals, can be expected to be effective in the case of man and hence reliance must continue to be placed on modifications of the environment to which achievement hitherto has been entirely due. Profound changes will be needed in the pattern of services through which medical knowledge is applied, the most important being unification of the major classes of hospitals, acute, mental and chronic; association of the preventive personal health services with curative services; and the strengthening of domiciliary medical care, particularly through a new and more intimate relationship between general practitioner and hospital services.

The circumstances of developing countries are very different from those of the industrializing West in the nineteenth century. Nevertheless, Western experience is relevant in improving public health in developing societies today. Requirements have to be interpreted in terms of local circumstances. But the broad needs are common, namely satisfactory water supplies, the disposal of waste materials, and the improvement of housing. And the means of implementation still require the enforcement of law; the establishment of an efficient machinery of government to meet the needs of health and safety; and the creation of an educated and understanding community. How are environmental functions to be distributed in the administrative services of a developing country, and in what way can Western experience help in this decision? One or two useful answers to this difficult question are gradually emerging as a result of the application of studies to the problems on the spot. The first, and in many respects the most important, is that environmental services grow best when they are firmly rooted in community life. In town and country alike these services are an indispensable part of the community program and the keenness of the local residents is the only real guarantee of continuing success.