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The article presents a study on the demographic transition in France in the eighteenth century. It should be remembered that in the demographic field, the eighteenth century is essentially a period of transition. It is notable that during the eighteenth century, the population of France increased by seven to eight million inhabitants, which means that, during this period France was a country in which the population was already both large and dense. This country, with a dense rural population, was also one of the most highly civilized of its time. According to the population statistics provided in the article, the number of births has remained more or less same between the period 1770 to 1783. It is also notable that the rate of marriages increased from 185,069 to 229,827. The death rate among civil population marginally increased in the same period while the increase in the death rate of persons in religious orders was almost negligent. Number of births in France in 1784 exceeded the number of deaths by 78,493.

The article presents a study on the demographic trends in marriage habits among men and women in England and Wales in the first half of twentieth century. The study has been carried out on the basis of nupitality tables. It further notes that the war of 1914-18 greatly reduced the number of men in certain generations and, therefore, among these men the proportions married were higher thereafter. In the corresponding age groups among women, the married proportions were decreased by the loss of men. These movements were mainly caused by shifts in the marriage probabilities at the younger ages. The pattern of changes differs somewhat between the sexes. Between 1900-02 and 1910-12 the marriage probabilities decreased at all ages under 40 among men, though the only serious decrease took place under age 25. Among women the probability of marriage increased between ages 25 and 35. The decrease in mortality since 1900 has resulted in a proportionately greater increase in the male than in the female survivors according to the life tables. This process has in a sense compensated the greater increase in female than in male nuptiality in the same period.

The article presents the results of a survey into the socio-economic aspects of childbearing in Great Britain. The survey was conducted by the Health Visitors of Maternity and Child Welfare Authorities in England, Wales and Scotland. The mothers of all babies born during a single week were visited, and interviews were done with more than 90% of them. In 1946, when this inquiry was undertaken, the conditions of childbearing were still affected by wartime measures such as schemes for evacuating expectant mothers, the direction of labour, and by acute deficiencies in housing, maternity beds and medical personnel, which were also attributable to the war. Institutional confinements are most frequent among wives of professional and salaried workers and least frequent among wives of agricultural workers. Indication of the shortage of hospital beds is shown by the fact that many mothers in each occupational group are discharged from hospital before the fourteenth day after delivery. In all occupational groups considerably more is spent on baby clothes and equipment than on medical and institutional fees, and it is clear that provision of free medical care will not greatly relieve the cost of childbearing.

The aim of this paper is to deal with certain problems of the technique of analysis arising out of the movement of recovery of the birth-rate in countries which previously had the lowest fertility in the world, not to provide a discussion of its significance or an explanation. In all countries which previously had net reproduction rates below 1 these rates have now been above unity in one or more years since 1943. Indeed, it is argued that speculation as to the cause of this movement should be founded upon an analysis of facts made by somewhat different procedures from those usually adopted. In the field of statistical analysis the rise in fertility rates has mainly resulted in increased attention to the effects of marriage on the birth-rate. In all the countries concerned the number of marriages and marriage rates have increased sharply. It has been shown that wide variations in fertility rates may occur while the total number of children born to marriages throughout their existence is changing smoothly and slowly. Thus the requirement that fluctuations in fertility rates should be regarded as postponed or anticipated births does not involve any knowledge of people's intentions to have children.

The article focuses on professor C. Burt's pamphlet on the relationship between intelligence and fertility. The material that is presented in the body of the pamphlet is based on intelligence test scores. The predictions concerning the future trend of intelligence, on the other hand, are based on innate intelligence. He claims that there is a negative correlation between intelligence test scores and family size of -0.20 to -0.25. Burt uses evidence to dispose of the possibility that the inverse correlation between size of family and intelligence score is due to the differences in reproductivity between the different social classes and not to differences in intelligence as such. The author, however, suggests that the fact that the negative correlation is found in the poorer areas and that there are suggestions of a positive correlation in the social and occupational groups that are better off, makes it possible that this negative correlation in the poorer areas is due to environmental rather than to hereditary factors, to environmental factors that are affecting the intelligence test scores of the children in the poorer areas to a different extent from the way in which the test scores of children in the better off areas are affected, and to a different extent in the larger families in the poor homes from that in the smaller.

In the article, the author discusses the comments made by professor Julian Blackburn on his pamphlet about intelligence and fertility. Blackburn's criticisms fall under two main heads. He seeks to show, first, that the author has overestimated the negative correlation between intelligence and family size, and secondly, that the effects on intelligence, of favourable environmental conditions, is underestimated. According to the author, his correlation was based on a highly heterogeneous group, containing children from elementary, central, secondary, preparatory and private schools, instead of from each type of school taken singly. It is only in the poorest of such groups that significant negative correlations are found. These two facts, Blackburn contends, make it possible that this negative correlation is due to environmental rather than to hereditary factors. The most satisfactory way to estimate what the correlation would be in groups homogeneous as regards social and economic circumstances is to apply the method of partial correlation. But, Blackburn objects that partial correlation gives only a single figure for homogeneous social classes, regardless of their different social level.

The article presents a study to compare the fertility of various sections of the building industry of varying social status. In accordance with the wishes expressed by the Statistics Committee of the Royal Commission on Population, maternities and infant deaths registered in England and Wales in 1939, in respect of which the occupation of the father had been coded and punched, were retabulated by the General Register Office by groups of occupations. A scheme of twenty-six type groups of occupations was adopted. For purposes of analysis it has been found convenient, in general, to aggregate these twenty-six groups in thirteen main types. It is noted that even the thirteen types provide a more detailed occupational analysis than has in general been used for the analysis of differential fertility. The full classification into twenty-six groups makes possible certain special comparisons. It is seen that the differences in age at marriage between occupations follow closely the differences in fertility, as was to be expected. The differences between occupations in the age of the mother at the birth of the first child are greater than the differences in the age at marriage. This is due to the differences in the average marriage duration at the birth of the first child.

The article presents a study of population trends and social change in Canada facilitated through the development of a system of record linkage which has recently been introduced. It provides a means whereby all the vital records about particular individuals may be brought together through a single master index. The idea of such a master index linking vital records to one another and to other social data was not developed primarily as a means of improving sources of material for the study of population trends and social conditions, although the desirability of some regular means of supplementing census data, available only on a decennial basis, had long been recognized, and it was considered that this might be accomplished through an extension of the vital statistics system. An important feature of the whole plan is the substitution of a birth card for the conventional certificate issued by the provincial offices. This card, which is already in use in some Canadian provinces and is coming into use in others, is pocket-size and shows only the name, sex, place and date of birth, the date the original registration was filed, the identifying number, and the seal of the registration authority of the province.

The article discusses the process of keeping official registers of marriages, births and deaths, with the parish church official that has produced the records which form the basis of Norwegian vital statistics. Marriages, births and deaths among members of organized dissenting congregations are in the first place registered by the priest or the head of the congregation. Births, deaths and marriages among persons not belonging to organized congregations or of no confession are notified to the magistrates and again to the vicar for registration in the parish book. During the last 30-40 years the question of transferring the registration of marriages, births and deaths to civil registrars has repeatedly been discussed in Norway-particularly in connexion with the establishment of compulsory civil registration in all the communities of the country. In principle the registration of marriages, births and deaths by local civil registrars is undoubtedly the most rational system. In the course of the first part of the nineteenth century the annual returns sent in by the clergy concerning marriages, births and deaths gradually became more comprehensive, and attempts were made from time to time, by means of new instructions to the clergy, to improve the returns and make them more reliable.

In this study the author examines the general problem of estimating the influence of social conditions on mortality rates and suggests that the methods of multiple regression analysis extensively used for this purpose cannot always be relied on to give the kind of results required. The argument is illustrated by reference to the work of Woolf and Waterhouse (J. Hyg., Camb., vol. XLIV, no. 2, 1945) on infant mortality in the county boroughs. The Confluence Analysis of Frisch, applied to their results suggests that the statistical series used by these authors are multicollinear, and use of Flotelling's method of Principal Components suggests that these five series represent not five but only two fundamental influences. One of these, almost equally strongly loaded in three of these series is identified with the `general social conditions'- a complex of bad housing and low money-incomes-which these and other writers have studied. This leads to the suggestion that the use of multiple regression analysis in attempts to estimate the separate influences of the individual constituents of this complex are likely to be unprofitable and misleading. It is suggested that the available information relating to social conditions in various districts can be most usefully employed in the form of a complex index which might be constructed by means of some form of Factor Analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It has been known for some time that male and female reproduction rates may give widely divergent results, even when calculated from the same population. In this paper the author examines the mathematical relationships between the male and female reproduction rates in the stable population and obtains the conditions under which the same true rate of natural increase would be yielded both by the male and female rates. He shows that these differences may ultimately be reduced to differences in the nuptiality of the two sexes and illustrates his theory by an arithmetical example. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This concludes the study, the first part of which appeared in vol. I, no. 2 of Population Studies. The present section compares the results of the 1939 analysis with the pattern of occupational differences in fertility shown by the Registrar-General's statistics for 1921 and 1931. The comparison suggests that the proportion of all births contributed by occupations of low fertility has increased in recent years, but that the general pattern of occupational differences in fertility was probably unchanged in 1939. Appendices to the study discuss a number of related topics, including the application of reproduction rates to the measurement of differential fertility, and the problems involved in grouping occupations for fertility analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Special problems arise in carrying out censuses in areas with illiterate populations. Some of these problems, as relating to Palestine Arabs, have been discussed in the reports on the survey of five Arab villages conducted in 1944 (see especially General Monthly Bulletin of Current Statistics, Government of Palestine, August 1945). But that survey dealt with a settled Arab population. The difficulties are much greater when a nomadic population is involved. In the present study the author outlines the difficulties met in enumerating the nomadic bedouins of Beersheba and the steps taken to overcome those difficulties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Surveying the literature available in European languages, the author concludes that all past Chinese population data are inaccurate, and probably very markedly so, though there is no means at present of estimating the degree of error. This inaccuracy is attributed to a number of factors. At no time did the Government appear to realize the value of accurate population data as such, and the data actually collected have been very largely the by-products of inquiries with more immediately administrative aims. The geographical area covered by the `censuses' has varied considerably over time, and so also, either by intention or through defective organization, have the classes of the population included. Antagonism from the public has been common, arising partly from superstition but also from the association between the `censuses' and military and labour conscription and taxation. With the exception of the recent, local (hsien) censuses, uniform schedules, instructions and other census procedures have not been used. The author considers the possibilities of interpreting the population data now available for China and suggests means of collecting more accurate statistics in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Both male and female nuptiality conditions can be calculated from any given population. Generally these conditions will be inconsistent in the sense that if applied continuously with given mortality and fertility conditions they would produce different sets of marriages, both in total numbers and in age distribution of bridegrooms and brides. It is shown that, given, say, male nuptiality, female nuptiality conditions consistent in the sense that both male and female conditions could hold in a stable population can be deduced. These consistent conditions depend on the ultimately stable rate of growth of the population. The mathematical formulae for the relations connecting various characteristics of the two consistent sets. of nuptiality conditions are worked out (e.g. net probability of marrying, mean ages at marriage, marriage-rates at particular ages, etc.), the magnitudes of the parameters in the relations estimated and the relations are translated into numerical terms, showing the effects of changes in the level of the stable rate of growth on the Consistent nuptiality conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study deals with the relationship of population to historical processes. Six aspects are selected for consideration: (1) The pattern of demographic factors which help to cause the persistence of particular human physical types in given localities. (2) Social control to maintain population within subsistence limits. (3) The conditions in which such control breaks down. (4) Migration. (5) Major trends in population history. (6) The influence of population on historical development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study of mortality in previous centuries and of the trends in recent decades helps to elucidate some present-day medical problems and to contribute to their solution. The author considers, from a historical and socio-economic point of view, the factors which, during the last zoo years, have influenced the trends of mortality. This analysis indicates the lines along which present research, aimed at reducing mortality and extending expectation of life, should be directed. Infancy (0-1 year): In backward countries, the whole of infancy is a period of high mortality. In progressive countries, on the other hand, the main reproductive wastage is in the 'perinatal' period, that is to say, covering stillbirths and deaths during the first week of life. For example, even in New Zealand, the death risk per day is more than eighty times as high during the first week of life than in the following 358 days. Historical studies and social class comparisons suggest that further reduction of perinatal mortality is likely to depend on socio-economic, housing and cultural factors rather than on improvements in obstetric skill. Evidence cited by the author indicates that a crucial factor may be to provide expectant mothers with adequate rest during the weeks immediately prior to delivery. In general, research into mortality in infancy is too much bounded by a purely medical point of view whereas a socio-medical approach is needed. Childhood (1-14 years): There has been an immense reduction in childhood mortality during the last zoo years. Less than zoo years ago the mortality among children aged 1-4 and 5-9 years was thirty-three times, and among those aged to 10-14 years twelve times, that of the present day. Future reduction of mortality among children will be primarily a function of social factors and trends. Adolescence and maturity (15-49 years): One of the outstanding trends of the last zoo years has been a relative increase in tuberculosis mortality among those aged 15-49 years, whereas among children tuberculosis has become relatively less important as a cause of death. Recently, however, there has been a decline in the relative importance of tuberculosis as a cause of death among the adolescent and mature and, among New York males, it now takes second place to the cardiovascular diseases. The total mortality of people in this age group has fallen, since the sixteenth century, by 77 % for men and 81 % for women. No spectacular discoveries are needed to reduce the mortality of this group by a further third; in doing this, control of environment will be the important factor. Later maturity and old age (50 years and over): In the four centuries since the Renaissance the mortality of people over 50 years of age has been reduced by half. Among the factors contributing to this reduction is a fall in mortality due to tuberculosis. But even cancer, which is popularly supposed to have increased, used to be more common in the eighteenth century than it is now and to appear at an earlier age. Moreover, there has been a change in the organs most commonly affected. The distribution of the greater proportion of cancer in a given population is a function of living conditions in the broadest sense of the term. Studies of groups exposed to carcinorelevant factors suggest that a high incidence of cancer in one organ is associated with a low incidence in other organs. But on many other causes of death at the older ages far more research is required, especially on the cardio-vascular-renal complex, and on the degenerative joint and bone diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Official life tables are frequently calculated for a period of years, rather than for an individual year, and the question arises, how annual rates are to be combined, in order to give an indication of the average mortality of the period. The author examines this problem, and uses methods based on the binomial probability distribution to suggest a solution of the 'weighting' problem. Taking as his starting-point the work of the Dutch statistician Van Pesch, he modifies the latter's theory so as to make it applicable to the case, where mortality rates have a secular downward trend, and reaches the conclusion that the 'most probable values for the mortality rates are not obtained by applying the weighted mean, but by the application of a weighted mean and a correction term. The inclusion of the correction term means that, practically speaking, the results do not differ from those obtained by the application of the unweighted mean. The unweighted mean, which has the advantage of requiring less computational work, may therefore be given preference over the theoretically more accurate method.' [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents information on recent developments in Swedish population policy. Sweden is one of the countries in which the demographic situation has been most serious. And it is also a country in which one of the most comprehensive programmes of population policies has been put forward and implemented. In 1935 the first Population Commission was set up. The Commission made several inquiries into various aspects of the population problem, including the question of the causes of the declining birth-rate, and in the years 1936-8 put forward a number of proposals. The new Commission set up in 1946 discussed various aspects of population policy without feeling bound either by the work or by the points of view of its predecessor. The problems under discussion have been somewhat similar for the two commissions. Sex problem, birth control, voluntary parenthood, and the like, occupied a central position in the work of the first Commission, but this was not the case for the new Commission.

The article presents information on the growth of population in Palestine. The Moslem birth-rate in Palestine is computed each year by the Department of Statistics of the Government. The high birth-rate of the Moslem section of the population is surprising compared with similar figures for the same denomination in other countries in the Middle East. There is a large importation of Moslem females into Palestine with the result that about 30,000 more marriages have taken place among Moslems during the years 1935-44, than could have actually occurred on the basis of the age structure of the Moslem section of the population, as found in the population census of Palestine in 1931. The registration of Moslem deaths in Palestine is technically on the same lines as the registration of births, and no burial is allowed in towns unless a death certificate is presented to the Department of Health and a burial permit obtained from them. In Moslem villages, however, no permit is required for burials.

This concludes the study, the first part of which appeared in vol. II, no. I of Population Studies. The present section deals with such collective schemes as free confinement services for all mothers, maternity and infant homes, free admittance to maternity and infant welfare clinics, non-residential child welfare. institutions, free school meals and free travel for mothers and children. The chief measure in Swedish population policy is the child allowance granted to all children in all families. Children of invalids, widows, unmarried mothers, etc., receive supplementary grants. Provisions aiming to overcome man-power difficulties in industry and in the home are discussed including immigration, the rationalization of house-hold work, home helps service, etc. The proposal for a Population Institute is considered and the cost of the various measures of Swedish population policy is estimated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper the author discusses the demographic position of the colony of British Guiana. He outlines the racial composition of the population and shows the necessity for treating the two largest sections of the population, the East Indians and the Negroes, separately. After assessing the adequacy of the statistical material a detailed study of mortality and fertility shows that the colony had entered an era population expansion by 1931. At that time 'for the first time in its history the gap between births and deaths was of sufficient magnitude to result in substantial growth without recruitment from overseas'. The East Indian section of the population to be capable of a considerably high rate of reproduction for some time come but with people of African descent there is some suggestion that the principle of voluntary parenthood is now accepted in the middle and upper classes and may permeate to the other classes in time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Male and female net reproduction rates calculated from a given actual population generally yield different, i.e. inconsistent, annual rates of intrinsic growth. This inconsistency is due to the nature of the sex-age distribution of the population. The paper examines first the conditions which are necessary and sufficient for a population to yield consistent male and female rates, and secondly the factors which prevent actual population conforming to the conditions for consistency. These factors are shown to relate to the past behaviour of fertility, mortality, masculinity at birth and, in particular, to the effects on populations of external disturbances like wars and migrations. A detailed analysis of the importance of the various factors in causing inconsistencies between male and female reproduction rates is made by examining over seventy census populations and the importance of the magnitudes of the inconsistencies is indicated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents information on the longevity of Jews in Canada. Only two attempts appear to have been made so far to express the longevity and mortality of Jews by means of a life table. The Jewish populations of the United States and of Canada have great similarities in their social and economic structures. They also share, very largely, in their European origins and they have come to North America during the same period. It is, therefore, a fair assumption that the longevity and mortality characteristics of the relatively small Jewish population of Canada may be indicative of what might be found for the millions of Jews in the United States, for whom such information is not available.

The article presents information on the estimation of total family size of occupation groups from the distribution of births by order and duration of marriage. The legitimate maternities registered in England and the General Register Office tabulated Wales in 1939 by occupation of father in conjunction with age of mother, order of birth and duration of marriage. It is clear, of course, that it is not possible from an analysis of the distribution of legitimate births by birth order and duration of marriage to derive any measure of fertility, which takes account of differences between occupation groups in nuptial or in childlessness.

The article presents information based on a sample survey of the African population of Southern Rhodesia. A sample survey naturally sacrifices much of the detailed information obtained by a complete census enumeration of the population. The Director of Medical Services in Southern Rhodesia has been an unfailing source of sympathetic help and has shown himself fully alive to the importance of the subject, which the survey has intended to elucidate. Similar remarks relate to the Department of Native Affairs, which has collaborated and assisted the researchers throughout, particularly with regard to problems encountered in the fieldwork. Any success obtained is in large measure due to the services rendered by these two departments.

A most important general conclusion of recent work in demography is that the present custom of analyzing population statistics only in terms of reproduction rates and other indices obtained from the fertility rates of women while taking no account of the numbers of men is unsatisfactory. The logical consequence of the present analysis would be a reproduction rate by computing the consistent nuptiality is in the stable population and by applying current fertility rates to obtain a reproduction rate. The measure of the fertility of marriage suggested above would be obtained by taking a group of marriages occurring at the same moment and calculating the average number of live births produced by them throughout their existence.

The article presents information on some of the comments raised by researcher J. Hajnal on some of the articles that were discussed earlier in the journal "Population Studies." As Hajnal points out, the reasons for using reproduction rates based on the female part of the population to the exclusion of the male part have never been fully stated. It is therefore worth while setting out the implicit assumptions involved when population replacement is measured by indexes referring to only one of the two sexes. If the rate of replacement of a population is measured by the net reproduction rate or the true rate of increase of one sex, this implies that rate is unaffected by the relative numbers and age distribution of the other sex.

The article presents information on some vital statistics and living conditions of a primitive peasant community in Sierra Leone. The great majority of the population belonged to the Kissi tribe one of the most primitive in Sierra Leone. The people live in dirty unventilated mud huts usually with an internal diameter of about eight feet, each housing an average of four to five people. Children go mainly unclothed, while adults wear a variety of garments of native or imported cloth, very of tea ragged and nearly always dirty. Babies are suckled until two to three years of age, but breast milk is supplemented, starting usually within the first two months, forcing, pap of rice or mashed banana down the infant's throat.

The article focuses on European migration potential and prospects. Migration potential may be defined as that volume of migration, which might be expected if existing obstacles to migration were removed. The difference between potential and actual migration gives an idea of the effect of the obstacles. A number of additional factors have to be taken into account if one considers future migration potentials. Political, social, economic and demographic changes in countries of emigration and immigration are bound to affect the migration potential of the population concerned. Restrictions upon the free mobility of would-be migrants imposed both by sending and receiving countries are perhaps the most important obstacles. But even when migration between most of Europe and the new continents was virtually free, as it was during the hundred years between the Napoleonic War and the First World War, the margin between actual and potential migration was always wide. Even when there were no restrictions, the volume of actual migration was checked by a great variety of more or less easily removable factors such as ignorance of opportunities abroad, shortage of shipping, or costs of transport.

This article focuses on age at marriage and marital fertility. The erratic behaviour of gross and net reproduction rates during the last ten years, in nearly every country for which they are available, has led to some suspicion of them as the best possible measurement of the trend of reproductivity. Suspicion gives place to systematic and penetrating criticism in researcher J. Hajnal's article in the September 1947 issue of Population Studies. The article shows the weakness of gross and net reproduction rates, as hitherto calculated, not only during war years, but also in any period of marked change. It is not possible to give a comprehensive bibliography of what is now a rapidly growing literature on the subject of marital fertility. The essence of the technique is to collect fertility data specific not for the age of woman but also for the duration of marriage. By summing such a series researchers can measure the reproductivity of a typical marriage, or of a population in which the numbers and durations of marriages are given by any required assumption.

The article focuses on the Canadian sample for labour force and other population data. The collection of statistical data by sampling rather than by supposedly complete enumeration is today a liberating force in all-quantitative work. Its advantages in the study of problems of population are especially great and are rapidly becoming apparent in several broad directions. Apart from the registration of births and deaths, which is important from a civil as well as from a statistical point of view, most of the population data in the past have in fact been obtained from the compilations of the census taker. Censuses have usually been separated by 10 or at least 5-year periods, the long interval between the time to which the data refer and the time at which they are released, often give them an interest which is largely historical, the questions tend of necessity to be confined to a more or less familiar set, suggested variations or additions to which must all too often be rejected as unwieldy or too expensive. With sampling, on the other hand, surveys can be carried out on a smaller scale, and hence more flexibly, the field is wide open for experimentation with new questions which are both more detailed and more meaningful than those which can be included in a census.

The article presents some notes and reflections on the possibilities of a census of China by sampling. A complete census is always more expensive than a sample census, except when the population is very small. The U.S. Census of 1940 cost about $50 million. A complete census can be taken only at intervals, usually of ten years, while a sample census can be taken any time it is needed. Thus in the U.S., the total number of males and females employed and unemployed can be reported monthly and censuses of some congested areas could be taken four years after the regular 1940 census. For reasons of economy, it is not always possible to include on the Census schedules all the questions, which would yield useful information, but a sample of the population may be questioned and give representative results. Thus in the U.S. Census of 1940 certain supplementary questions were asked of one person in twenty. These supplementary questions related to such matters as parentage and mother tongue, veteran status, social security, usual occupation, industry and class of worker, and fertility data.

This article presents indices of the age distribution of a population. There have been many attempts to summarize the age structure of a population in a simple form. Its value seems to lie mainly in giving a very concentrated visual expression of the relative sizes of three large age groups. It can, therefore, be used to give a brief description of a certain population in comparison with other populations and to analyse regional differences within an area. It is, of course, desirable to be able to classify age distributions into types. The development of demography during the last years has, however, made it clear to an increasing extent that one must only study the actual situation, but must also consider the probable future development as well. The article is intended to outline a descriptive method, which both fulfils the aim of classifying the age structure, by measuring its departure from a certain normal age distribution and also allows a quick and reasonably accurate calculation of the future development of the more important age groups. The index method consists in comparing the relative sizes of various age groups in the actual population with the corresponding proportions in certain theoretical age distributions, the quotients then being transformed into easily understood figures and letters building up an index word. Several indices may be derived, depending on the choice of theoretical age distributions, each having its properties and value.

The article presents a note on standardized rates. In dealing with mortality statistics one may encounter the following problem. Suppose, researchers are attempting to compare the mortality of populations two component population by using standardization procedure. It is assumed that the following data are available in the case, deaths by age of the two populations combined, but not for each of the component populations, total number of deaths of each component population, not distributed by age and the component populations distributed by age. Since only the age specific death rates of the combined population can be obtained in this case, the standardization procedure would consist of applying the age specific death rates of the combined population to the age distribution of one of the component populations. Supposing the obtained standardized death rate of the combined population exceeds the death rate of one of the component population, used as the standard population, whether researchers can conclude then that the standardized rate of the second component population would be higher than that of the first component population.

The article presents information on the demographic history of the Northern European Countries in the eighteenth century. The remarkable statistics of the Northern countries available for the greater part of the eighteenth century give demographers valuable information on population structure and developments. The main cause of the changes in population development was changes in economic conditions, and harvest results were of special importance. Not only do mortality and nuptiality seem to have been influenced but also fertility, and birth control may not have been without importance in the Northern countries during the period. In many respects the structure of the population in the Northern countries differed fundamentally from that prevailing nowadays in the same areas. Thus the age distribution was quite different, with comparatively many young people; a large proportion of the adult population were married because nuptiality was high not only among spinsters and bachelors but also among widowed persons; legitimate fertility was high and illegitimate fertility low; and mortality was high, especially infant mortality.

The article presents information on the population statistics in Norway. The first real population census in Norway was taken in the year 1769. Previous censuses, covering only males, were taken in the years 1664 and in 1701. From these earlier enumerations it is possible to estimate the total population for the years mentioned. It may therefore be of interest to consider more fully these early inquiries before discussing the real censuses. In the rural districts a question was asked regarding the number of rooms each household had at its disposal and whether the dwelling was supplied with water and electricity. In the cities, too, because of difficult housing conditions, the number of rooms, etc., was to be stated for each household, whereas in 1930 this information referred only to each flat. Furthermore, information regarding house rent was again collected, but only for the flat as a unit. The schedules were to provide for every house in the cities, and for each dwelling in the country, information on the number of households and the number of persons residing therein, classified by age, sex, marital status and occupation housewives and children living at home being excepted from the latter classification.

The article presents information on the population of Libya. The recent history of population trends in the former Italian colony of Libya affords an example of attempted large-scale colonization in a country where geography and climate have for centuries held the population to a small figure. On the basis of the conditions of climate and rainfall, Libya can be divided into four zones, namely, the seacoast, the plateau, the steppes, and the desert hinterland. Libya has no important mineral resources or manufacturing industries; the wealth of the land is derived almost entirely from agriculture. It has already been the proportions of nomads; semi-nomads are not reliable because of the looseness differential under enumeration. If the present population of Libya is about 950,000 the ratio of productive land per head is 11.5 acres, which is comparable to the standard of 10-15 acres per person used in allocating the semi-irrigated lands to the Italians. However, it should be stressed that a large part of the productive area is fit only for pastures or for the kind of optimistic dry culture with which the Italians experimented.

The article discusses the concept of economic population optimum, foreign trade and world economy. The theory of the economic optimum is framed in the setting of the isolated state. This setting reflects a socio-political world organized in molt or less independent national states between which movement of persons, goods and services has become increasingly more restricted. In this setting the theory would appear to be directly applicable to those great societies which are of continental dimensions and relatively self-contained. The first and most striking consequence of the introduction of foreign trade into optimum theory is the partial transformation of the mode of operation of the ball tendencies upon which the optimum rests. To the extent that international trade promotes a living international division of labor, the various national units may develop specialized industries which can attain the relatively massive size required to realize the principal benefits of increasing returns on the basis of relatively small populations.

The article presents the analysis of data relating to maternal and child health services, post-natal care and use of nurseries. Although the importance of post-natal care has been emphasized from the earliest days of the maternity and child welfare movement, the development of post-natal clinics has not kept pace with the expansion of the rest of the services. The problem of maternal ill health has never had the same urgent appeal as the related problems of infant and maternal mortality. One probable reason for this is the lack of morbidity statistics. There are no such incentives to attack the problem of maternal ill health and for these reasons the post-natal services have been relatively neglected, and attention concentrated on care during pregnancy and confinement. The present inquiry gives some indication of the extent of this problem, though, by excluding the late complications of childbearing, it underestimates its gravity. So long as there are no statistics of maternal ill health it will be difficult to plan adequate post-natal services. While the present survey has given some indication the extent and nature of maternal morbidity, it is clear that further information needed both to provide a basis for the initial planning of the services and, later, to give an objective measure of their success.

This article provides information about significant recommendations made by the British Royal Commission on Population. To help families with children the Commission made three specific proposals for immediate introduction. They were, increase family allowances, exempt family allowances from income tax and increase income-tax allowances for dependent children where the earned income exceeds £600 a year. As per the Commission the measures introduced or improved during the war to raise the relative economic position of families with children might had contributed to cause the large increase that has occurred in the number of births. They enumerate the school milk and meals schemes and the subsidies designed to keep basic requirements economical. When there are fewer children than three, the effect of food subsidies is greater than that of family allowances, and when they are more than three, it is less except where tax has to be paid. The modification of income tax, though having its most marked influence in typical working class families, also influenced those with higher incomes.

The article analyses the activities of the British trade unions on behalf of emigration between 1850 and 1890 and the effects of those activities. The first section of the article is concerned with the general economic ideas of the unions about emigration and the reasons for the emigration policy. In the second section the difficulties the unions faced when they attempted to implement emigration in times of depression and unrest as a "safety valve" has been discussed. It also describes the permanent emigration rules of various unions and the effects of their operation. The emigration policy of trade unions in the mining, textile and iron and steel industries are treated in more detail than that of other Unions for two reasons. These industries were the very bone and sinew of the British industrial supremacy during the last half of the nineteenth century. It was in these industries that the threat of the danger of foreign competition was most often used by employers, and that trade unions considered most seriously the repercussions upon home industry of the emigration of skilled workmen.

This article deals with one specific aspect of labor-force inquiry, the measurement of working life. It illustrates not only the relevance of demographic factors, but also adapts the technique of the life table to a measurement of the work-life span. With the rapid growth of the aged population in recent decades, increasing attention has been given to the economic problems of dependency in old age. Estimates of length of working life, as compared to the total life span, are pertinent to the problem. In addition to the interest in the average working life span, those concerned with problems of labor-market dynamics also have need for related measures of rates of separation from the labor force at different ages. The Bureau of Labor Statistics, for example, in attempting to assess long-range employment opportunities in various occupations, found that in many skilled and professional fields, the greatest proportion of job openings results from the need to replace losses due to death or retirement.

This article examines the validity of sociologist Gregory King's estimates of the population of England and Wales in 1695 and of its age composition. The estimates are analyzed in the light of the available King's manuscripts. A study of some of the original returns suggests that the population enumerations used by King in constructing his ratios of persons per house, while by no means perfect, were nevertheless reasonable in quality. The account given in the Kashnor manuscript provides some factual basis for King's allocation of houses between London, England the other cities and market towns, and the rest of England and Wales. Demographic ratios for London agree well with those obtained from more extensive contemporary material. For the rest of the nation, such a check is not possible. But analysis of the census returns for England and Wales during the nineteenth century suggests that, at least, the ratios used by King for the other towns and for the villages and hamlets were not unrealistic. How exactly King computed the numbers of towns in his various categories is not known, and the results cannot be tested for reliability until a fresh analysis of hearth-tax statistics has been made.

The article presents findings of the Maternity Survey on the use of infant welfare centers in Great Britain. 68.7 percent of all mothers surveyed used the centers. More experienced mothers with several children used centers less than the less experienced ones. 61.8 percent of the wives of manual workers with four or more children had taken their babies to the centers at some time before the second birthday. The average date of first attendance was about 7 weeks after confinement, except for the agricultural workers' wives who made their first attendance after 12.6 weeks. Those who made their initial visit later probably came for advice on specific disorders or else for diphtheria immunization. There was a general falling off in attendance as the children grew older. As many as 39.1 percent of the mothers attending in the first year did not return to the centers during the second year. On the other hand, there were some mothers, many of them frequent attendees in the first year, who continued to use the centers regularly after the first birthday of the child.

The article analyzes the population geography of the free Negroes in the U.S. after the Civil War, 1861-1865. Before the group was submerged in the mass of emancipated slaves at the conclusion of the Civil War, the number of free Negroes was enlarged steadily from several sources. By far the greatest number were manumitted slaves or their descendants, Negroes who were immigrants from foreign lands. The free Negro population of any given area in the U.S. would be affected by the more or less legal migration of individuals who had been liberated by legitimate means and finally, the annexation of such territories as Louisiana, Florida and Texas added to the size of the group within the borders of the U.S. Using the somewhat defective data on residence offered by the Census of 1860, it was found that 2.79 percent of the total urban population were free Negroes even though they formed 1.55 percent of the aggregate population. To put it another way, there were 79 percent more free Negroes in the cities of the U.S. in 1860 than would be expected if the group were uniformly distributed.

The article discusses the forecasts of U.S. population made in 1940s by the Bureau of Census. The 1947 population report was undertaken to revise the forecasts published in 1943 by the Scripps Foundation for the National Resources Planning Board. These earlier estimates were based on assumptions with regard to fertility rates that were much too low for the current period. In the 1947 report, the long-term trends in fertility chosen represented only minor changes from those of the previous report. The chief differences were that a current estimate of population in 1945 was used as the base point and that higher fertility was assumed for the short-term period from 1945 to 1950. To provide the public with more realistic short-term forecasts, the Bureau began early in 1948 to prepare a brief report covering the years up to 1955. These forecasts used current estimates for July 1947 as a base point and involved the assumption that by the year ending June 30, 1955, the annual number of births will have dropped to the number implicit in the medium fertility assumptions of the 1947 report.

Presents an introduction to articles published in the March 1950 issue of the journal "Supplement to Population Studies."

The article presents information on cultural assimilation of immigrants. Analysis of certain migratory movements serves to set off a problem of immigrant assimilation. At the very first, this problem is concerned with the emigrant country itself, which loses every year a certain fraction of its inhabitants. This problem is of equal interest to the receiving country, although for quite different reasons. The arrival of immigrants can be an unmixed blessing. Complete assimilation is harder to obtain in the case of adult immigrants, especially those who had wives and children before settling in the new country. The native population is usually a passive factor in the process of assimilation, contacts with newcomers being very restricted when the latter are few in number. Factors favorable to the sort of assimilation desired are a kind welcome by the native inhabitants, especially by their new fellow-workers, equality of rights in the matter of wages and trade-union membership, facilities for joining sporting and intellectual associations, rapid acquisition of full rights of citizenship and naturalization without waste of time and money, tuition in the language of the adopted country, newspaper articles and cheap publications generally.