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This paper proposes a reformulation of the general growth balance method for estimating census and registration completeness so as to make it applicable even to populations that are affected by migration. It also discusses a new procedure of line fitting that could be useful in countries where the input data are severely affected by age misreporting. The method is applicable to countries where data on age distribution of the population are available for two points in time from either censuses or surveys. Following closely the original proposal of Brass, it involves adjusting the 'partial' birth rates for age-specific disturbances from growth and migration rates. Beyond correcting the death rates, the method is useful in inferring the relative completeness of the censuses, and in deriving a robust estimate of birth rate under certain conditions. The application of the method is illustrated using the example of the male population of the Indian state of Uttar Pradesh for the period 1981 to 1991. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 1945, at the end of the Second World War, Albania had the highest fertility in Europe with an average of more than six live births per woman. However when Albania emerged from behind the 'olive curtain' in 1990, fertility had fallen to three children per woman, despite a pro-natalist environment and in the virtual 'absence of Contraception and abortion. Nevertheless, after five decades, Albania's position at the top of the European fertility league remains unchanged. This paper documents the fertility transition in Albania during the period 1950-90 and places the demographic results in the context of recent socioeconomic and cultural change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines excess mortality following spousal bereavement by time since bereavement, sex, age, and education. The main hypothesis challenged is that higher education buffers the harmful effects of spousal loss. Using a log-rate model, death-rate ratios (widowed/married) are estimated for 49,849 and 126,746 Belgian widowers and widows and an equal number of non-bereaved controls matched to the bereaved on their socio-demographic characteristics. The hypothesis that the more educated suffer less excess mortality is not supported. Although higher educational levels are associated with lower mortality in general, they do not alleviate the effects of bereavement. On the contrary, in the period immediately following spousal loss, the more highly educated seem to have more, rather than less, excess mortality. Three possible arguments are suggested to account for this: education-related differences in the partner-relationship, structural differences in the availability of appropriate social support, and cultural differences in potential support networks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Neonatal mortality and stillbirths are recognised to be subject to similar influences, but survival alter a successful live birth is usually considered in isolation of foetal wastage. Moreover, individual-level data on age-specific influences and causes of death in a historical context are rare. This paper uses an unusual data set to compare the influences on neonatal mortality and stillbirths in early twentieth century Derbyshire, England. Multivariate hazard and logistic analyses are performed to examine the relative roles of various social, environmental, and demographic factors. The influences on and causal structures of neonatal mortality and stillbirths emerge as broadly similar, with previous reproductive history linked to a considerable amount of variation. The clustering of endogenous deaths was much greater than the clustering of exogenous and post-neonatal deaths, probably reflecting the cause-of-death structure and the relatively healthy social and environmental position of early twentieth century Derbyshire. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Much previous work on the relationship between respondent's reported frequency of discussion with spouse about family planning and correctness of reporting spouse's approval of family planning has led to the conclusion that discussion promotes approval. In this paper, data from the 1998 Kenya Demographic and Health Surveys are used to show that a focus on the relationship between frequency of discussion and correctness of reporting partner's disapproval of family planning leads to sceptical conclusions about the effects of discussion in improving knowledge of partner's attitude or in promoting approval. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Genealogy is the written record of family or lineage members descended from a common ancestor or ancestors. These materials have long been used by demographers in their investigation of past demographic behaviour. Most available genealogies, however, are the records of members of surviving patrilineages. Among the many reasons why these patrilineages have avoided extinction is the fact that they have usually experienced favourable demographic conditions. In consequence, their genealogies could be a biased data source if used in the study of the history of the whole population. This paper examines this issue, using evidence on the historical experience of the Chinese population and computer microsimulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Between 1951 and 1998, the United Nations (UN) published 16 sets of population projections for the world, its major regions, and countries. This paper reports the accuracy of the projection results. I analyse the quality of the historical data used for the base populations of the projections, and for extrapolating fertility and mortality. I study also the impact this quality has had on the accuracy of the projection results. Results and assumptions for the sets of projections are compared with corresponding estimates from the UN 1998 Revision for total fertility and life expectancy at birth, total population, and the projected age structures. The report covers seven major regions (Africa, Asia, the former USSR, Europe, Northern America, Latin America, and Oceania) and the largest ten countries of the world as of 1998 (China, India, the USA, Indonesia, Brazil, Pakistan, Russia, Japan, Bangladesh, and Nigeria). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the interaction between contraceptive use and breastfeeding in relation to resumption of intercourse and duration of amenorrhea post-partum. We used data from the month-by-month calendar of reproductive events from Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) in Peru and Indonesia. The analyses show that breastfeeding women were less likely than non-breastfeeding women to have resumed sexual intercourse in the early months post-partum in both countries. In Peru, but not in Indonesia, breastfeeding women had a significantly lower odds than non-breastfeeding women of adopting contraception. Although the likelihood of contraceptive adoption was highest in the month women resumed menstruation in both countries, about ten per cent of subsequent pregnancies occurred to women before they resumed menses. These results emphasize the importance of integrating breastfeeding counselling and family planning services in programmes serving post-partum women, as a means of enabling those who wish to space their next birth to avoid exposure to the risk of a pregnancy that may precede the return of menses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes self-selection of returning immigrants. We propose an empirical model for this purpose, and apply it to Israeli-born immigrants who arrived in the United States during 1970-79 and returned to Israel during 1980-89. The results, based on analyses of the 5 per cent Public Use Microdata Samples (PUMS) of the 1980 and 1990 United States censuses, suggest that those who return from the United States to Israel have reached a higher level at school than those who remain in the United States. However, the income analysis suggests that, at each schooling level, those who returned to Israel would have been less successful in the United States labour market than Israelis of similar schooling (and other measured characteristics) who remained in the United States. These results were corroborated using Israeli census data that include information on returning Israelis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a study of changes in marriage patterns among the Jewish population of Israel over nearly 40 years. Using data from four Israeli Censuses spanning experience from the late 1950s to the mid 1990s, we employ Schoen's harmonic mean model in a multivariate framework to consider, simultaneously, changes over time in age-specific marriage rates by ethnicity and educational attainment. Our analyses point to a number of clear and interesting findings: (1) an increasingly positive association between marriage and educational attainment, especially for women; (2) the continuing central role of ethnicity in mate selection, despite important declines in ethnic endogamy over the period; (3) a decrease in-the prominence of unions of 'exchange'; (4) some evidence of increasing 'block' endogamy among Jews of Asian and African origin; and (5) a small increase in educational homogamy over the period. Interpretations and implications of these findings are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper presents a new type of parametric transition rate model that is particularly suitable for studying household and union formation. In such studies, it is often not easy to determine the moment at which individuals actually enter the population at risk - or at least when the risk begins to become socially important. Even in the presence of regulations stipulated by law, one might be interested in studying 'social' timetables. We assume that there is a constant rate for any duration and that after a certain threshold point a log-logistic rate is added, with this threshold as its time origin. This can be justified in a behavioural sense by assuming that random and social transitions arise from separate processes. We then apply the model to union formation in Italy and show how threshold and intensity effects generated by theoretical hypotheses can be revealed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper argues that expectations -- the process of evaluating the chances for future attainment of valued goals in the home community (stay decision) vs. alternative locations (move decision) -- along with family norms about migration are major predictors of intention to move, which in turn is a proximate determinant of migration behaviour. Utilizing longitudinal data from the 1992 and 1994 waves of the Thailand National Migration Survey, logistic regression models show that a strikingly different set of expectations, household demographic indicators, and migrant capital factors were significant determinants of migration intentions for men and women; reflecting Thai gender roles. Migration intentions, in turn, predicted more permanent, but not temporary, survival strategy migration behaviour, while low household income predicted temporary but not more permanent migration behaviour. The measure of perceived family migration norms was a powerful determinant of migration behaviour, but the size of migrant networks was not a statistically significant determinant of either migration intentions or behaviour. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper assesses the importance of early-life conditions relative to the prevailing conditions for mortality by cause of death in later life using historical data for four rural parishes in southern Sweden for which both demographic and economic data are very good. Longitudinal demographic data for individuals are combined with household socio-economic data and community data on food costs and the disease load using a Cox regression framework. We find strong support for the hypothesis that the disease load experienced during the first year of life has a strong impact on mortality in later life, in particular on the outcome of airborne infectious diseases. Hypotheses about the effects of the disease load on mothers during pregnancy and access to nutrition during first years of life are not supported. Contemporary short-term economic stress on the elderly was generally of limited importance although mortality varied by socio-economic group. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The differences in internal mobility between national populations are large and complex in origin. In studying them we must use comparable indicators. This paper discusses how measures of migration intensity at the national level should be constructed, drawing on analyses of residential mobility in Australia and Britain. We argue for the tailoring of intensity measures to observation plan and to age-time plan, and for removing the effects of mortality and external migration on census-based measures. We propose simple estimation of infant migrants, a standard stopping-age in calculating gross measures of migration, and argue for the use of a common population for computing age-standardized measures of migration and a common mortality schedule for computing migration expectancies. We conclude with recommendations for developing comparable cross-national measures of migration intensity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides an assessment of the nature and magnitude of Tanzania's recent fertility decline, using robust methods for the identification of fertility trends. A decline in Tanzanian fertility began some time in the late 1970s or early 1980s. The pattern of decline exhibits similarities to patterns identified some years ago in Zimbabwe and Kenya. The decline has been especially marked in urban areas. It has been accompanied by a rapid rise in contraceptive prevalence from the very low levels before 1990 to just under 20 per cent of currently married women of reproductive age. Although falling marital fertility associated with a rise in contraceptive use is the main contributor to the decline in fertility, a rise in the average age at marriage has also made a (smaller) contribution, as has the AIDS epidemic. The fact that fertility is declining in Tanzania raises questions about the social and economic requirements for fertility transitions to begin in sub-Saharan Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Distributed lag models are used to explore the issue of the importance of economic factors for demographic performance over the course of the demographic and economic modernization of Spain. Mortality indicators are generated by age, sex, and cause and are assessed in terms of shifts in Gross Domestic Product. During the pre-transitional period, links between mortality and economic performance were simultaneous and rather weak but in the expected direction, declining to near 0 by the beginning of the twentieth century. Afterwards the importance of economic shifts for mortality fluctuations increased dramatically and delayed effects began to predominate, only disappearing after 1950. The paper explains the increase in the importance of economic factors and the change in the lag structure in terms of the greater economic volatility of the 1915-1950 period, the progressive implantation of more efficient public health systems and their sensitivity to economic fluctuations, and improving levels of nutrition and general health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since its inception in 1974, the South African family planning programme has been widely believed to be linked with white fears of growing black numbers. The programme has been repeatedly attacked by detractors as a programme of social and political control. Yet, in spite of the hostile environment, black women's use of services has steadily increased. Using historical and anthropological evidence, this paper delineates the links between the social and political context of racial domination and individual fertility behaviour. It is argued that the quantitative success of the family planning programme is rooted in social and economic shifts conditioning reproductive authority and fertility decision-making. State policies of racial segregation and influx control, ethnic 'homeland' politics, and labour migration of men transformed opportunities and constraints for black women and men, and altered local and household expectations of childbearing. Women came to manage their own fertility as they increasingly found themselves in precarious social and economic circumstances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper documents increasing cohabitation in the United States, and the implications of this trend for the family lives of children. The stability of marriage-like relationships (including marriage and cohabitation) has decreased - despite a constant divorce rate. Children increasingly live in cohabiting families either as a result of being born to cohabiting parents or of their mother's entry into a cohabiting union. The proportion of births to unmarried women born into cohabiting families increased from 29 to 39 per cent in the period 1980-84 to 1990-94, accounting for almost all of the increase in unmarried childbearing. As a consequence, about two-fifths of all children spend some time in a cohabiting family, and the greater instability of families begun by cohabitation means that children are also more likely to experience family disruption. Estimates from multi-state life tables indicate the extent to which the family lives of children are spent increasingly in cohabiting families and decreasingly in married families. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper I discuss some of the health policy implications of an increasing trend in population research and in its interpretation and presentation - a trend to 'political correctness' - defined not in the popular, often derogatory, sense, but as an ideological commitment to certain principles. For one of these commitments, that to the notion of gender equality, greater strength and legitimacy is today commonly sought by tying it to other less controversial goals such as that of better health. But straining for connections between gender equality and positive health outcomes often unduly constrains the research question, the research methods, and the interpretation of the research. When health policy seeks guidance from this research, it can receive signals which are too often incomplete, silent on the many trade-offs of specific policy measures, and, ultimately, perhaps even detrimental to the very goals of gender equity and social justice from which they are derived. Examples of all these possibilities are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper develops multivariate models to describe homogamy or, more generally, marriage preferences, for corresponding characteristics of brides and grooms. The purpose of these models is to obtain interpretable measures of the degree of homogamy (or marriage preference) on one dimension and to adjust these measures for homogamy on other dimensions. The models are applied to a sample of marriages in Montevideo, Uruguay, with pairs of corresponding variables for the brides and grooms. The analysis estimates the unadjusted and adjusted levels of homogamy on previous marital status, age, education, religion, and location. Homogamy on location, or propinquity, is the single most important variable. Previous marital status and age describe the readiness or eligibility to marry and are associated in their effect on homogamy. Education and religion describe vertical and horizontal differentiation of marriage partners, respectively. The multivariate analysis verifies that these dimensions are largely independent of each other. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This contribution to the study of the literacy transition in Britain, Ireland, and Australia also touches on the relationship between literacy and international migration. Some 20,000 emigrants arrived in Australia in 1841 and their literacy is here established at the individual level, and then related to regional origins, occupations, religion, sex, and family status in the British Isles. The new Australian data offer unusual evidence to juxtapose with the prevailing account of British and Irish literacy. The paper makes systematic comparisons of the immigrant evidence with existing literacy findings for the populations of England and Wales, of Ireland, and the colonial population of Australia in the year 1841. The results also show extraordinary similarity of rank orderings between the Australian data and the conventional sources. The results show that the immigrants were consistently more literate than the home and the receiving populations and indicate a substantial link between migration and literacy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper investigates whether past declines in mortality could have created a huge deficit of eligible men in the marriage market, and whether the ensuing competition for mates could be responsible for the coercive character the dowry system of marriage has assumed in India. New indices have been developed to measure the trends in bridegroom availability that aid in the inquiry into the demographic origins of marriage squeeze. It is contended that the marriage squeeze against women was particularly intense in India because mortality decline, in addition to age structural changes, drastically reduced the number of widowers in the population who once accounted for about one-fifth of the annual supply of bridegrooms. Our projections indicate that, as a result of recent declines in fertility, the marriage squeeze against females will ease substantially by the end of the first decade of the twenty-first century, and that marriages of men will begin to be delayed more than those of women. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In many Sub-Saharan African countries there are concerns about high rates of pregnancy-related school dropouts. Schoolgirls who become pregnant have fewer opportunities to complete their education after the birth of their first child and have fewer opportunities for socioeconomic advancement. This paper uses data from a nationally representative sample of Batswana women in conjunction with focus group interviews to describe the impact of schoolgirl pregnancy, and to identify the factors that facilitate the return to school of girls who did drop out because of pregnancy. The results indicate that the problem of schoolgirl pregnancy may be much more severe than is commonly assumed. Although the situation is improving, there is a need to continue to improve programmes to reduce adolescent pregnancy, and a need to try and increase the number of young mothers who return to school to complete their education. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the effect of previous cohabitation on marital stability among the 1958 British birth cohort. Prospective data from the National Child Development Study are used to investigate the way in which family background factors and early lifecourse experiences, including cohabitation, affect the risk of first marriage dissolution by age 33. Discrete time logistic regression hazards models are used to analyse the risk of separation in the first eight years of marriage. Many socio-economic and family background factors are found to act through more intermediate determinants, such as age at marriage and the timing of childbearing, to affect the risk of separation. Previous cohabitation with another partner and premarital cohabitation are both associated with higher rates of marital breakdown. The effect of premarital cohabitation is attenuated but remains significant once the characteristics of cohabitors are controlled, and cannot be explained by the longer time spent in a partnership. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While it has been often suggested, most notably by Caldwell, that high fertility in developing countries is motivated by the positive economic returns that children contribute to their parents, empirical evidence to support the hypothesis is limited. This paper describes a method of measuring the economic returns from the average child over the entire parental life-cycle. The method is then applied to detailed household economic data from Côte d'Ivoire. The results indicate that parents give more to their children than they receive and that the economic returns from children are negative. Overall, we estimate that the average child provides an annual rate of return of roughly -- 8 per cent, Our results shed light on how the returns from childbearing vary according to the age of the parents at time of birth. The results also offer a potential economic explanation of why older couples are often first to adopt modern contraception. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Population estimates play an important role in the allocation of resources at many levels of government and commerce but little is known about the accuracy of age-specific population estimates. Such knowledge is crucial, as resource allocation is often targeted at populations of particular age, and decisions need to be based on the reliability of the estimates. This paper presents a multi-level statistical analysis of the accuracy of age-specific population estimates made for British local authorities in 1991. The aim of this work is to identify the factors that influence accuracy, and to investigate how these influences interact. Our analyses show that the following area characteristics are key factors: true population size; intercensal population change; and percentages of unemployed residents, armed forces residents, and students. In addition, we find that the overall type of method used to calculate estimates is important, and that its effect varies both with area characteristics and with age-group. Local census methods are found to be generally superior, but a low-cost apportionment method, if implemented well, may be as effective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Korea, total fertility declined from 6.0 in 1960 to 1.6 in 1990, in spite of a strong preference for male offspring. This paper addresses the notion that son preference hinders fertility decline, and examines the effects of patriarchal relations and modernization on fertility using the 1991 Korea National Fertility and Family Health Survey. It was found that women who have a son are less likely to have another child, and that women with a son who do progress to have another child, take longer to conceive the subsequent child. This pattern prevailed for women of parity one, two, and three, and became more pronounced with higher parity. A multivariate analysis showed that preference for male offspring, patriarchy, and modernization are all strong predictors of second, third, and fourth conceptions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although sociologists, demographers, and economists are generally agreed that economic independence enhances the likelihood that men will marry, there is disagreement concerning its effect on women. The view that economic independence weakens women's incentive to marry has probably been the most influential, although it has been subjected to few rigorous empirical tests with individual-level data. In the present paper we examine the predictors of forming a first cohabiting union, of progressing from this union to marriage, and of marrying without previously cohabiting by applying hazard regression to event-history data from the 1992 Swedish Family Survey, supplemented by earnings data extracted from the national taxation register. We test a battery of measures that reflect people's past, current, and potential attachment to the labour market. We find that the correlates of union formation for women are largely indistinguishable from the correlates of union formation for men, and that far from being less likely than other women to cohabit or to marry, women with a greater degree of economic self-sufficiency are more likely to do so. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses retrospective life history data to assess the impact of family planning services on contraceptive use in a rural Mexican township. Between 1960 and 1990 contraceptive use rose and fertility declined dramatically. Both contraceptive supply and demand factors were influential in these trends. The start of the government-sponsored family planning programme in the late 1970s was associated with a sharp rise in female sterilization and use of the IUD. However, once we controlled for the changing socio-economic and demographic characteristics of the sample, the presence of family planning services had no significant effect on the likelihood that women used modern reversible methods compared to traditional methods. Men and women expressed concerns about the safety of modern methods such as the pill and the IUD. Efforts to increase modern contraceptive use should place greater emphasis on communicating the safety of these methods and improving the quality of services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we re-estimate the effects of breastfeeding patterns on the timing of resumption of menses after controlling for maternal nutrition and maternal stressor variables. The analysis shows that simple hazard models, used on data from a longitudinal study in Guatemala, provide estimates of effects on timing of resumption of menstruation that are (a) comparable to others discussed in the recent literature and (b) generally consistent with hypotheses relating patterns of lactation, maternal nutritional status, and maternal stressors to processes that accelerate (decelerate) resumption of anovulatory cycles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Current sociological research acknowledges the growing complexity of fatherhood and the widening divide observed between men's conjugal and parental careers. Little is known, however, of the importance of these changes in the population at large. What proportion of men, for example, continue to experience fatherhood within a single, durable relationship? How many have to reassess their role at its collapse? To what extent do men have to juggle different paternal roles simultaneously or live through a series of episodes as a father, and how is this diversity of experience evolving from one generation to another? In this paper we attempt to answer some of these questions, using multiple-decrement life table techniques to analyse retrospective data concerning the conjugal and parental histories of Canadian men. Our analysis reveals the extent and speed of the paternal life course transformation, and suggests that this will continue at least in the mid-term. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the influence of parental preferences for grandchildren on young adults' entry into cohabitation and marriage. We also consider the influence of young adults' own fertility preferences on their cohabitation and marriage behaviour. We develop a theoretical framework explaining why these childbearing attitudes influence young people's cohabitation and marriage behaviour. The results show that the childbearing preferences of young women and their mothers affect their choice between cohabitation and marriage, so that wanting many children increases the likelihood of choosing marriage. Young men whose mothers want them to have many children enter any type of co-residential union, either marriage or cohabitation, at a much higher rate than men whose mothers want them to have fewer children. Our results also provide insights into the childbearing behaviour of cohabitating couples. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper is based on fieldwork done in 1992-93 in the Senegal River valley, a Sahelian region characterised by heavy out-migration for more than thirty years. As a result of this long history of human displacement, migration has now become a local institution of its own. More recently, the introduction of irrigation in an otherwise drought-prone area seems to have reduced the intensity of the phenomenon, but the momentum gathered by the local institution of migration means that the decrease of migration rates is likely to be very slow. The present analysis borrows some of its basic concepts from the new institutional economics and should therefore be seen as an illustration of how this perspective, quite effective in describing the complexity of social exchanges in rural societies, helps explain various determinants of migration. We will show, for example, that the two types of migration observed (short-term and long-term) respond similarly to common structural and family conditions, and appear to differ mainly when individual variables are taken into account. This feature underlines the crucial opposition between, on the one hand, individual determinants and, on the other, structural factors determined by economic or family characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Estimates of mortality in Cambodia during the Khmer Rouge regime (1975-79) range from 20,000 deaths according to former Khmer Rouge sources, to over three million victims according to Vietnamese government sources. This paper uses an unusual data source -- the 1992 electorate lists registered by the United Nations -- to estimate the population size after the Khmer Rouge regime and the extent of "excess" mortality in the 1970s. These data also provide the first breakdown of population by single year of age, which allows analysis of the age structure of "excess" mortality and inference of the relative importance of violence as a cause of death in that period. The estimates derived here are more comparable with the higher estimates made in the past. In addition, the analysis of likely causes of death that could have generated the age pattern of "excess" mortality clearly shows a larger contribution of direct or violent mortality than has been previously recognized. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 1841 the colony of New South Wales offered an unprecedented number of heavily subsidised passages to British emigrants. It sought specific categories, particularly single young women, domestic servants, and agricultural labourers. The colony preferred English and Scottish rural immigrants. New South Wales attracted one fifth of all emigrants from the British Isles in 1841, but its selections were strongly biased towards southern Ireland. While the influence of the selection criteria, as well as local factors, was pronounced, this paper argues that the recruitment also expressed the changing propensities to emigrate within the regions of the British Isles. In particular it demonstrated the willingness of young Irish women to emigrate where facilities were provided to overcome their poverty. The immigration of 1841 was a turning point for Australia: it was the largest recruitment before the gold rushes of the 1850s and already signalled some of the main characteristics of Australian immigration history. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper addresses the question of whether higher governmental support for families has a positive effect on fertility by encouraging parents to have more children. The analysis is based on data for 22 industrialized countries and covers the period 1970 to 1990. Data are analysed using a fixed-effect econometric model with the sum of age-specific fertility rates as the dependent variable. The results show that family allowances have a positive and significant effect on fertility, while maternity leave benefits have no significant effect. Increasing the value of family allowances by 25 per cent would result in an 0.6 per cent increase in fertility level in the short run. In the long run this effect would be of the order of 4 per cent, or about 0.07 children per woman on average. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper discusses the use of genealogical data for the study of the historical development of kinship networks in the Netherlands, 1830-1990. There are two main problems in using genealogies: the year of death is missing for a sizeable part of the research population; and the information available on all relevant branches is far from complete. A mixed estimation procedure was used to impute the missing years of death. Overcoming the second problem is more difficult; the only solution was to exclude individuals without children from the analysis. If these and other limitations of genealogies are not ignored and the effects of various types of under-registration are carefully assessed, genealogies can provide valuable information for our understanding of historical kinship patterns. The empirical results, using data on more than 160,000 persons, show that demographic changes in Dutch society during the last 160 years have significantly affected the kinship configuration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human populations have lived on the earth for millions of years, yet the study of population history only began to be established in the mid-twentieth century. In spite of the considerable progress in the study of historical demography which has since been made, there have been hardly any detailed studies of fertility and mortality before the sixteenth century. This study, by analysing a set of Chinese genealogies, examines long-term mortality patterns in a selected clan population over a period of more than 1000 years. The result shows that, in this selected population, mortality fluctuated around a relatively high level and showed no secular change over the very long period studied. The study also provides a comparison between the mortality patterns found in the selected population and those observed in a much larger Chinese lineage population, as well as those recorded among the British elites born between the sixteenth and the early nineteenth century. Based on the findings of this research, the paper presents some tentative suggestions about long-term mortality changes in Chinese history. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper alternative models for testing for child death clustering are explored, using data from Punjab. Significant evidence of clustering is found only amongst the lower socio-economic and educational groups. The majority of these families succeed in avoiding child-loss despite their social and economic disadvantages, while a few experience multiple child loss. As maternal education and socio-economic status rise, the negative deviance in factors related to child mortality appears to be removed. The extent of clustering is quite high in this population, indicating substantial potential for reducing child mortality by focusing services on high-risk households. Family building factors such as short birth intervals and high parity births do not raise child mortality when families are disaggregated by level of risk. They seem to be an effect rather than a cause of clustering of child deaths. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper is to explore mortality in Quebec during the nineteenth century from a demographic perspective. During the nineteenth century, there was excess urban mortality in various countries; in order to identify such mortality differentials, we compared mortality indicators for the province of Quebec and then for the urban areas of Montreal and Quebec City. Using data from various studies, we produced life tables and compared life expectancies. We show that at different times during the nineteenth century, spatial variations in mortality levels across the province of Quebec and its urban areas were significant. According to the data we analyzed, mortality is undoubtedly higher in urban areas even though a convergence in trends took place towards the end of the century, resulting in an overall reduction in mortality. Also, exploring life expectancies within a cohort approach at times of fast-changing mortality patterns has proved to be instructive. Life expectancy estimates based on a cross-sectional approach were systematically lower than those resulting from a cohort-specific one. Trends diverged to a greater extent beginning with the 1870 cohort, reflecting the improvements made from that point on to World War II. Since current mortality levels are substantially determined by the cumulative effects of past behaviour specific to each generation, it is quite obvious that mortality analysis will reveal its true meaning only with the help of cohort life tables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, total fertility estimates for Greater Beirut in the mid-eighties and early nineties are presented, and changes in socio-religious differentials of fertility across time are explored. The baseline information was recorded from registration details for all maternities in Beirut and its inner suburbs in 1984 and 1991: age of mother, number of children ever-born, hospital class, and religion of newborn. An indirect method was used to estimate total fertility from the joint distribution of mothers by age and parity, and, using hospital class as a proxy for social class, differentials in fertility were investigated by Poisson regression. The estimates of total fertility for Beirut shifted from 2.60 in 1984 to 2.52 in 1991, and were higher for Muslims than for Christians in the two periods. The regression analysis showed that: (1) the difference between the two religious groups persisted after control for social class, and in fact applied to the lower social class; (2) fertility dropped between the two dates in the lower social class, and more so for Muslims than for Christians. In comparison with other countries of the region, the decline in Beirut was found to be relatively modest. If the trends assessed in this study were to continue, the religious-based fertility differentials would taper off progressively in the capital city of Lebanon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The data for this study come from Matlab, a rural area of Bangladesh, where a continuous registration of demographic events has been maintained by the International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh since 1966. A total of 11,951 first marriages of Muslims that took place in the area between 1975 and 1987 were followed until the end of 1989, to examine the relationship between parental marriage breakdown and survival of first live-born children. The impact of divorce on survival of children during infancy and childhood was examined, using hazard analysis. Other independent variables included age of mother at birth, and mother's education, year of birth, sex of children, and residence at the time of childbirth. It is shown that the net odds of death among children of divorced mothers in infancy and childhood were respectively 3.2 and 1.4 times higher than those of mothers whose marriages continued. The paper also discusses the possible mechanisms which link divorce and child survival. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is well established that young people whose parents divorced or experienced marital breakdown during their childhood are likely to enter into first partnerships and into parenthood earlier than those whose parents remained married. In this paper, using data from the British National Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles Survey, we examine how far the timing of first coitus plays a role in the genesis of this demographic behaviour for children of divorced parents. Other factors, including the timing of menarche, attitudes to sexual activity, degree of parental strictness and religiosity, were also examined. In general, these factors had little explanatory power. The analysis showed that earlier sexual activity for men and women from disrupted families is an important proximate determinant of their earlier entry into partnership and parenthood, compared with those brought up with both natural parents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many investigators have found that divorce risks decrease as you move from groups with little educational or social capital to groups with more. This negative educational gradient fits with the notion that people with more education are better at selecting spouses and better at making a marriage work. Other investigators have found a positive gradient, often in populations where the situation is dominated by the individual's ability to handle the divorce process and to cope with the economic and other problems that follow in the wake of a divorce. The sign of the educational gradient in divorce risks seems to depend on the balance between countervailing influences. Information about the gradient over a few educational levels is about as much as you can expect to get from the interview data of a normal-sized general survey. With access to the data from a full-coverage system of the population and educational registers of a sizeable population like that of Sweden, educational effects can be studied in much greater detail. We begin to tap this source in the present paper. When we do, the educational gradient in divorce risks turns out to be too slippery a basis for the general theories that have been developed around it so far, at least in a population where it is reasonably easy to get a divorce and where the hurtful consequences to the divorcees are more limited than elsewhere. There has been no uniform relation between educational level and divorce risk of Swedish women at the various educational levels during the 1970s and 1980s; developments in recent decades in Swedish first-marriage divorce risks have been much more favourable to the more highly educated than to women with less education, and the result is that the educational gradient has become negative as we leave the 1980s. The educational gradient changed sign correspondingly between cohorts born in the mid-1940s and cohorts from the mid-1960s. In a society such... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is argued in this paper that "perceptions" about the determinants of fertility and of fertility decline can be "politicized" by various special interest groups; that is, these perceptions can be used to push for policies and interventions which often have an ambiguous relationship to actual fertility, but are important because they already appear on the political agenda of these groups. Such politicization is facilitated by the near-universal consensus that fertility decline is a legitimate goal in the developing world, by the increasing evidence that there can be no grand theory of fertility decline, and by the willingness of scholars to attach a policy significance to all their findings. Two examples of such politicization in India are presented, one of which has a socially beneficial impact, whilst the other is potentially disruptive, to illustrate that such politicization is not without its dangers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reviews half a century of research into the determinants of fertility. It is argued that the quest for the determinants of fertility behaviour and change during that period can best be interpreted as the development of a series of sub-narratives from different disciplinary perspectives and orientations. These are normally based upon the initial narrative of the demographic transition and usually take the form of a verbal theory illustrated by a 'box and arrow' diagram. On occasions formalization has been attempted. Different parts of the initial narrative have been highlighted at different times depending on policy interest, improvements in technical skills, availability of data, changes in social setting, and the degree of satisfaction with the dominant sub-narrative of the day. There is every reason to believe that the research process identified will continue and will lead to a further accumulation of knowledge. In fact, all important variables have probably already been identified. That it will, ultimately, lead to a single, consolidated narrative fully satisfactory for all settings and for all time is, however, highly unlikely. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article presents the reply of the author and co-authors to an article about the analysis of differences in the fertility patterns between national populations and over time. In their comments to our paper Osona and Kohler make a number of interesting and potentially helpful points. While their comments do not, in general, appear to be in conflict with our opinions, we are concerned that they have misunderstood one specific point. In their first section, on the analytical relationship between Hadwiger parameters and demographic measures, the authors re-present some known results. Those results, of course, were not the essential point of our paper, which was concerned primarily with the analysis of differences in fertility patterns. The functions were fitted in order to gain understanding of the differences in the patterns between countries and periods. The correspondences between variables to which they refer were used in order to investigate the effects of departures from the models in cases of distorted distributions. In their section dealing with reparameterization the authors propose an alternative to our presentation of the Hadwiger mixture model. Their explicit interpretation of the Hadwiger parameters as the total fertility, the mean age at childbearing, and the variance of the fertility schedule is possibly a step forward for the use of the model in demography.

This paper attempts to define the field of demography, identify the demographer, assess the extent to which demography is a social science and relate it to the other social sciences. It examines how changes in the outside world affect what demographers do and what they publish. As befits Population Studies's 50th anniversary, the role of journals, and especially of this journal is examined. The early role of the journal and of its longtime two editors in defining the field is discussed. The interface between demography and the other social sciences is examined, as is the extent to which demographers publish in journals other than specialist population ones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]