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Abstract Statistically valid records of birth and death registration do not yet exist in the Sudan. The 1955/56 sample census gave some evidence - though not very conclusive 1 The evidence from the 1955/56 sample census is not quite conclusive, partly because the administrative divisions for which the census data are available do not always coincide with the ethnic or mode of life divisions. Further, the available indices are inadequate and unreliable, and throw no light on the possible causes of the differentials. For further details see my article on 'Population of the Sudan' in Essays on Sudan Economy, forthcoming. - that there were fertility differentials in the country. These differentials were of three main types. First, there were differentials between the inhabitants of the three Southern provinces where recorded fertility levels were exceptionally - indeed suspiciously - high; and the Northern provinces where recorded fertility levels were considerably lower. Second, within the Northern populations, there appeared to be fertility differentials between the settled agricultural populations on the one hand, and the pastoral nomads on the other, fertility among the latter being apparently unusually low. Third, there was some evidence of urban-rural differentials.

The article presents an appendix note on a statistical question raised in the preceding paper.

This paper discusses the theories of and the relationships between the direct and indirect methods of standardizing death rates for males, females, and persons. The author notes that the standardization procedures have two objectives, to eliminate the disturbing influences of varying age and sex distributions, and to provide reliable indications of the overall comparative mortalities of different groups. The author also points out that the Registrar General's methods and publications have always fulfilled the objectives in a thorough and practical manner.

This article discusses the role of the foreign-language press in migrant integration. In studying transatlantic migration in the nineteenth century, one might analyse the rhythm of economic growth in the principal sending countries of Europe and attempt to find a relationship between the course of migration and the changes in pace of American economic development. One might also relate the findings of such an economic analysis to a set of demographic data showing. The results of such a study would be of interest to students of select disciplines like economics and demography. There is, however, a large body of social sciences including, for instance, history, sociology, social psychology, criminology and social geography, which contribute special tools for the study of cultural factors affecting the volume and direction of international migrations. Emotional attachments to a community and to acquaintances, to a culture or language, to political and social institutions or to a way of life must be considered as factors inhibiting Trans-Atlantic movement and affecting the adjustment of migrants in the U.S.

This article focuses on the trend of the birth rate in India between the period 1911 to 1950. The Government of India, in connection with the Census of 1951, has published a report entitled Estimation of Birth and Death Rates in India during 1941-50. In this report the actuaries associated with the census of 1951 have analysed a mass of material and have tried to arrive at firm estimates of the birth and death rates for different regions of India during 1941-50. Economist Kingsley Davis has also tried to compute birth estimates for the major provinces of India during 1926-30. These two publications thus enable you to examine two independently estimated rates of omission in the two decades, i.e. 1926-30 and 1941-50. In the present paper it will be shown that the formula devised for West Bengal is valid for a much larger area, comprising the provinces of Assam, Bengal, Bihar, Orissa, Uttar Pradesh, and Madhya Pradesh. The rates of omission estimated by the author's formula for 1921-30 will be compared with the corresponding rates of omission for 1926-30 as estimated by Kingsley Davis, and it will be shown that in all the cases the two agree quite closely.

Presents an introduction to articles published in the March 1950 issue of the journal "Supplement to Population Studies."

The paper is an attempt to work out the `continuation rate' for the diaphragm and jelly method by applying the life-table technique as developed by Potter and Tietze to the data obtained in a retrospective survey of women who accepted this method from clinics in Greater Bombay. Some problems, which arise in extending the use of the life-table technique to methods other than the I.U.D. to which it has been widely applied, are discussed. The `continuation' rate as found for the diaphragm and jelly method was slightly higher than that observed for the pill in Singapore. The paper also contains an estimate of the `use-effectiveness' rate of the diaphragm and jelly method by using the life-table technique and points out that the use of this technique, as flow recommended by Tietze, does not adequately take into account Some of the biological considerations which used to figure Prominently in earlier discussions of the subject. For this reason, many of the figures on use-effectiveness which have been published by applying the life-table technique to methods, including the I.U.D., are not strictly comparable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a set of two papers, one of them published in this journal in July 1965, W. H. James defends the menstrual statistics of E. J. Farris and his co-workers and exploits these data to propose a new formula of calendar rhythm that allegedly provides maximum protection for a given amount of abstinence. The present paper argues that Farris's data are open to a suspicion of serious bias. James's estimates of various parameters of the menstrual cycle are questioned mainly on grounds of deficient data. However, it is concluded that his methods of estimation will prove useful in future analyses of menstrual variation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Assuming that the monthly chance of conceiving, fecundability, is constant for any one woman during the period of observation, but varies from one woman to another in an unspecified way, this paper investigates the expected incidence of first conceptions and the distribution of conception delays. The expected monthly incidence of first conceptions is a decreasing function of time. The mean, variance and higher moments of the distribution of fecundability (p) may be estimated from incomplete data referring to only the first few months of exposure. The distribution of conception delays is distinguished from the distribution of the number of trials needed for conception, and the moments of each are derived. When appropriate data are available to calculate the moments of the conception delay or the number of trials, the squared and cubed deviations of i/p about the harmonic mean fecundability can be estimated. These statistics may be useful descriptions of the discrepancy between an observed distribution and theoretical values expected in a homogeneous population. The correlation between two successive conception delays is also discussed in the article.

The object of this paper is to outline the results of a different method of studying marital breakdown. The opportunity for making such a study has recently arisen in the course of a national questionnaire survey of child health and growth. The chief purpose of this national survey is to build up a picture of the health and development of a broad sample of British children born in March 1946. While it was not primarily designed with the intention of investigating the subject of marital breakdown, it has provided information on its extent among British families bringing up young children in the post-war years. Furthermore, the survey has given an opportunity for contrasting the home conditions and physical development of children growing up in broken homes with those of a closely matched group of children living in stable families. This paper deals only with the extreme and obvious cases of marital breakdown, and it is restricted to those broken homes in which a legitimate child has continued to live with his or her remaining parent. The few children, who have been entirely removed from parental custody to the care of adoptive or foster-parents or children's homes, and those who were illegitimate, have not been included. It was found that while home circumstances differed considerably, the children of broken homes were not excessively retarded, nor on the whole were they more prone to suffer from childhood ailments or behavior disturbances than those in stable families.

In a previous paper a formula was derived from which the total fertility rate of a group of women could be estimated from the average number of live births to women in the reproductive period. In the present paper the argument is carried further and a method is given by which the total fertility rate may be estimated from the average number of children born to fertile women during the reproductive period. The method given in this paper may, under certain circumstances, have considerable advantages over the previous method suggested. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The analysis of population's impact on the economy has frequently been developed in the context of the dependency rate argument. The dependency rate, typically measured as the proportion of the total population outside the labour force, is a summary statistic which is intended to capture the influence of a population's age structure on the process of economic growth. This paper focuses on only one- and possibly the least understood - of the dependency rate economic influences, the saving rate. Indeed, at certain stages of economic development, the negative saving rate of the elderly could well be greater than the rate for those who have not yet entered the labour force. A debate on the relative merits of the competing models is outside the scope of the present paper. However, it is important to recognize that the interpretation of the economic impact of the dependency rate depends critically on the specific model employed. There are several modifications to the "naive" dependency-rate argument as it pertains to saving which appear critical to an analysis of this demographic statistic as a proxy for economic behaviour.

This paper explores the effects of labour force participation, urbanization, and education on the fertility attitudes and behaviour of young women. The analysis is based on interviews with 3,590 women in Taiwan, aged 18-39 in the autumn of 1971. The survey differs from previous KAP type surveys in Taiwan in including both married and unmarried women. The results show that when education is controlled, neither work experience nor urban-rural background has much effect on the desired number of children. Work experience does affect the timing of marriage and childbearing so that women who have worked away from home tend to have fewer children at a given age than those who have not had this work experience. The greatest effect is for women who continue to work after marriage, who make up only a small proportion of married women. Since these women desire almost as many children as those who do not work, their lower actual fertility may be only due to a temporary postponement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, a distinction has been drawn between the demographic analyses that have been performed on fertility (at both the macro-structural and micro-structural levels) and the social analysis of fertility, at the micro-structural level. To stress the distinctive objectives of the latter, I have labelled the dependent variable in such analyses `family formation' rather than `fertility'. Along with this re-labelling, an increased stress was placed on the need for finding new measures of family formation, that would be integrative of past demographic measurement and take account of the costs or dependency of children. The latter seemed important to any socio-economic or social analysis of family formation. A general measure of family formation processes was proposed - the `child-years-of dependency' (CYD) index. This (1) integrates demographic measures of quantity and tempo of fertility; (2) appears to discriminate among family formation patterns where some of the conventional demographic measures (especially quantity measures) do not; (3) is readily calculable from fertility histories, which are currently used in conventional demographic surveys of fertility; (4) is very flexible in taking account of `deviant' or irregular family formation patterns, such as adoption, child mortality, etc., where most conventional quantity and tempo measures in demographic studies are not; and (5) has a face validity that appears greater for social analysis of family formation than conventional demographic measures. The stress of the CYD on the dependency burden of children led to a discussion of more valid cost estimates than the simpler counting of children present in the basic CYD measure. Among the issues treated were group differentials in average costs, declining marginal costs of child-rearing, and age gradients of costs. Costs were defined minimally, in terms of dollar expenditures per child for consumption, and increased household work time entailed in child-rearing. Some existing data were used to illustrate levels and social class differentials of these various costs, recognizing the general inadequacy of available data. The need was stressed for longitudinal cost data, following families through their successive stages of family formation to see the actual and perceived levels of costs involved in rearing additional children. Finally, the inclusion of CYD measures in a general cost-benefit model of family formation was suggested. In part, this is required to balance the perspectives derived from some macro-structural cost-benefit models of economists, in understanding the persistence of high fertility, especially in underdeveloped areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In an earlier paper in this Journal this author presented a working model of marital fertility. The present paper examines how far that model is capable of serving as a `binder' for the diverse analytical hypotheses and interpretative schemes flow available in the literature on marital fertility differentials. More specifically, this paper attempts to identify the underlying explanatory factors and principles of a number of analytical hypotheses concerning fertility differentials and tests covered by the working model presented in the earlier paper. Although it cannot be claimed that this paper presents an exhaustive review of the explanatory analysis of human fertility, the results of the present exercise indicate that the working model in question is capable of serving as a `binder' for most of the important analytical hypotheses and interpretative schemes so far advanced by fertility research workers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In papers previously published in this journal J. M. Stycos and D. M. Heer have shown that fertility is lower in the economically underdeveloped Indian-speaking parts of Peru, Ecuador and Bolivia than in the more prosperous Spanish-speaking parts. Stycos concluded that the reason for the fertility difference in Peru is the greater marital instability of the Indian speakers which decreased their total exposure to the risk of conception. Heer suggested instead that the causes of the difference may be voluntary. The present paper questions Heer's analysis, and offers the explanation that the difference may be attributed to the physiological effects of altitude. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents summary statistics of immigration into the West Indies, under indenture or government sponsorship, during the period 1834-1918. The sources reveal a few discrepancies, but are sufficiently consistent to permit the construction of a series for each of the ethnic groups introduced. Most of the problems involved in constructing these series centre around the fact that a variety of sources have to be utilised. Immigration figures of East Indians, Portuguese, Chinese, Europeans and others into the several West Indian colonies have been prepared for each calendar year or season, but to conserve space are presented here in summary form. In the case of African immigration it is possible to give their country of origin. The only group of immigrants who were involved in return movements of any consequence are the East Indians. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main trend in urban/rural migration is a continuous gain, in net terms, of towns from villages and large cities. But this is a result of two distinct migration streams associated with the process of family formation. While before marriage there is positive net migration from villages to both large cities and towns (and from large cities towards towns), after marriage there is a tendency for couples to move towards villages. This is explained by the desire of families, particularly those belonging to the middle class to move out of the urban centres to better accommodation in smaller communities. Considerable variations in migrations within and into regions are observed. These reflect the continuation of long-term trends in internal migration (as described in Part I of this paper) in particular, population dispersal from Greater London and larger distance migration into the Southern and Eastern regions. Some social characteristics of migrants and non-migrants are compared. Associations between the intensity of internal migration on the one hand, and occupational status, education, social mobility and family size on the other are observed. An attempt is made to assess the extent of migration associated with the marriage process. Although this process increases mobility, its relative contribution to total adult mobility appears to be only slight. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper considers the attitude of Roman Catholics in the United States of America towards family size and suggests that large family ideals are still being put forward by the Church in publications and periodicals. The second part of the paper considers the attitudes of American Roman Catholics towards family size and shows that though there are indications that Roman Catholics regard slightly larger families as ideal than do members of other religions, the difference is not now very great. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the Monte Carlo model for simulating the reproductive history of a cohort of women is described in detail. The purposes of the model are both substantive and methodological, since it investigates the quantitative effects on reproductive performance of changes in such factors as mortality, marriage patterns, use of contraceptives and their effectiveness, size of family desired, fecundity and pregnancy wastage. The paper consists of five sections: a discussion of problems to which the model is directed, a brief description of population models, a description of the present model, a presentation of some illustrative results, and a discussion of the possible role of the model.

Fetal wastage and involuntary delays of conception combine to limit the precision with which birth intervals may be planned. In this paper a waiting-time model is used to estimate the expected time to conception following specified past delays of conception. It is assumed that a couple's monthly chance of conception, or fecundability, remains constant while, among couples, fecundability varies as a Pearson Type I curve. The model is applied with reference to three questions. First, knowing the duration of their infertility, what can a couple surmise about the likelihood of being sterile, or, if not sterile, about the additional months they will have to wait for a first conception? Second, among mothers wanting to plan a second conception, how valid is the premise that the time required for this next conception will be about as long as that required for the first? Third, in what manner does a previous history of abortion modify a mother's expectation concerning the time required for a live birth after discontinuing contraception? By assuming that the monthly chance of conception in the absence of contraception, hereafter termed fecundability, varies among couples but remains constant from month to month until Pregnancy for individual couples, one is able to treat conceptive delays as a waiting-time problem. It is the purpose of this paper to present a waiting time model, which, together with assumptions about pregnancy wastage, furnishes some preliminary answers to the questions, posed above.

This paper demonstrates that in Malaya the results of testing birth registration completeness according to the conventional method which involves a comparison of an independently estimated child population with the corresponding census population does not yield satisfactory results. This is because the assumptions underlying this method are not quite tenable under Malayan conditions. A minor modification of the method by taking into consideration Singapore-Malaya migration does not seem to have completely eliminated the shortcomings of the method. A new method utilizing data on the number of children ever born to women in the two post-war censuses taken in 1947 and 1957 is presented in this paper. It is ascertained that marked variation in the extent of under registration of births existed between the three principal races, viz. Malays, Chinese and Indians, and between the eleven States. Some of the important reasons for this variation may be traced to the differences in the rate of literacy, the number of years spent in school, the degree of urbanization and the proportion of the population residing in estates.

Contraceptive effectiveness is conventionally measured by a pregnancy rate, which reveals little about the way in which pregnancy risks vary among couples. In this paper, a technique is presented for estimating curves of pregnancy risk. The technique is applied to data from the Family Growth in Metropolitan America study for purposes of estimating how much couples would have to improve their initial contraception in order to realize, by contraception alone, the caliber of family limitation claimed by respondents late in their childbearing period.

This paper re-examines the matter of rural-urban fertility differentials in India. It is a commonplace that urban fertility is lower than rural fertility in the West, and it is frequently assumed that this holds for non-Western populations as well. In the case of India, previous studies of rural-urban fertility ratios have appeared to bear out this expectation. However, fertility ratios based on the most recent available age distributions show no significant rural-urban fertility differentials. This conclusion is supported by several recent sample surveys of children ever born and is consistent with the generally accepted fact that contraception is negligible even in the cities of India. It is noted that the virtual disappearance of the Indian rural-urban fertility ratio differential over time has in all likelihood resulted from a narrowing of the rural-urban infant and child mortality differential.

Estimates of mortality rates and expectation of life at birth, using infant mortality rates, are examined on the basis of 50 life tables for both sexes. Least squares linear estimates are given as well as estimates of their variances. Model life table calculations, as proposed by the U.N. Population Branch, are then compared with these unbiased minimum variance estimates and shown to overestimate the expectation of life by more than two years on the average, and to be at most 68 % efficient. Though better estimates are provided in this paper, their variance is still so large as to cast doubt on the practical usefulness of any estimates based exclusively on infant mortality rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper draws attention to the profound changes that are taking place in the proportions of the population of Great Britain that are single, married and widowed at various ages. These changes are the net result of a number of demographic, economic and sociological developments, such as the decrease in mortality rates and the changing balance of the sexes. After discussing an abortive attempt to forecast the future progress of the proportions, based on changes that have taken place in the recent past, the paper describes a method of estimating the pro- portions of each sex that are likely to be found in each marital status at the various attained ages in future years if the experience of the years 1950-52 in Great Britain as regards rates of marriage, divorce, widowhood and re-marriage continue indefinitely, subject to minor modifications to ensure that the numbers of marriages, etc., for the two sexes are consistent, and that the total number of married men equals that of married women. The variations in the proportions in each marital status in Great Britain during the past thirty years and those to be expected during the next thirty years, and ultimately, if the experience of the years 1950-52 persists, are set out and analysed. It is shown that, whereas the proportion of men never marrying has up to the present been about half the proportion of women never marrying, the continuance of present trends would result in the proportion of men never marrying becoming double that for women. This notable change is to be attributed, in the main, to the effect of improved vitality in childhood in replacing the excess of women at the younger adult ages by an excess of men. It is pointed out that, in the event, this change may not be fully realised, because a net emigration of men or a net immigration of women may mitigate the relative dearth of potential brides in future; but the proportions never marrying set out in the paper show the directions towards which current conditions are tending. The consequential changes for other marital statuses are also set out and discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Volume VI of the "Papers of the Royal Commission on Population," D. V. Glass and E. Grebenik present a model for estimating distributions of desired family size. The term "intended family size" will be used to designate children ever born under these hypothetical conditions of absent sterility and perfect birth control. This is to distinguish it from the family size that a couple might report as their "ideal" or "preferred" family size. This paper does not attempt a comprehensive evaluation but focuses on three aspects. First, evidence is given that asking couples for their fertility "preferences" or for their family size "ideals" does not adequately measure "intended family size." The second question raised in this paper is whether the model has yet attained its most efficient form. The assumption that the chances of another unintentional birth remain constant irrespective of the number preceding it is not only suspect, it leads to misleading results. Third, suggestions are made for modifying the model. The modifications would complicate the model but also add to its possible uses. In the passage from early marriage to later marriage, "private ideals" and "fertility preferences" change from expectations of future fertility to recollections of past intentions. This necessitates discussing "fertility preferences" in relation to more than one period of marriage.

The paper analyzes patterns of immigration and absorption of immigrants. The process of immigration is a process of physical transition from one society to another involving considerable frustrations and giving rise to many social problem among immigrants. The research is conducted with assumptions that there are three main interdependent indices of adaptation and assimilation of immigrants within their new country : institutional integration, acculturation, and personal adjustment and integration of immigrants. The research paper examines some of these implicit assumptions in order to estimate their importance for a framework of comparative analysis, and suggests such a tentative framework. The paper then attempts to apply this framework to the analysis of concrete cases of migration and assimilation of immigrants. The types of pluralistic structures arising through the absorption of immigrants are determined by the immigrants' own motivations, by the demands made on them by the absorbing society, and by the possibilities open to them in that society.

The article reviews some work on the fertility of the Jewish population of Palestine under British mandate which has until now been available in Hebrew only. Statistics regarding marriage, fertility and mortality are quoted for different sub-sections of the Jewish population, classified by origin, geographical location and profession. Most of the analysis refers to the years of the Second World War for which detailed data were available. The paper observes marriage as a factor influencing fertility. The data given shows that marriage was almost universal among Palestinian Jews. The proportion of either sex who had never been married by the end of the reproductive period was extremely low. In Palestine, the probability of marriage was high among all sections of the Jewish population. The later censuses show that the mean age at marriage has risen, but in the settlements, women seemed to marry earlier than in the rest of the country. Occupational differences in age at marriage in the towns were similar to those encountered in other countries. It is shown that wives of men in the higher occupational groups in towns married later than those of men in the lower occupational groups.

The simplest measure of the mortality experienced by children during the first year of life, for any one calendar year, is obtained by calculating the ratio of the number of infantile deaths in that calendar year to the number of births in the same calendar year. This ratio is called a crude death rate and is published annually for Australia by the Commonwealth Statistician index of infantile mortality. An alternative method for calculation of this index has been put forward by V. G. Valaoras in a paper in Population Studies, December 1950. Dr Valaoras properly points out that the simple method described above is defective, mainly because it fails to refer the infant deaths to the appropriate group of births from which the deaths arose. The first defect is not important when births are being maintained at a fairly constant level. It is, in such circumstances, not unreasonable to assume that births are evenly distributed throughout each calendar year. Recently, however, birth rates have been subject to severe variations and the distribution of births during each calendar year has been very uneven.