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The article provides notes to the contributors of papers to the journal "Population Studies". All typing, including footnotes, references, extracts and quotations to be double-spaced and on one side of the paper, which should preferably be A4 in size. Footnotes should be numbered consecutively throughout the paper and should preferably be typed at the bottom of the page to which they relate, or alternatively following the last page of the article, with triple spacing between each note. Three copies of all typing complete with figures, tables and references should be prepared. The top copy and one carbon should be submitted for editorial purposes and should be sent to Population Studies, Population Investigation Committee, London School of Economics, Houghton Street, Aldwych, London WC2A 2AE. One carbon copy should be retained by the author. Brief corrections should be inserted above the line involved and not in the margins. Any diversions in wording, spelling or punctuation from the original should be explicitly indicated or explained.

The article presents an appendix note on a statistical question raised in the preceding paper.

The article discusses author's comment on the article "Some Comments on W.H. James's Article," by M. Henry in the November 1964 issue of the journal "Population Studies." M. Henry suggests modifications to the author's estimates to make them directly comparable with previous estimates. He concludes that there remains a disparity and to account for this he offers theoretical criticism of the methods used by the author in the study and objects to the values assigned to the mean duration of post-partum sterility. In modifying the author's estimates he considers the effect of spontaneous abortion. Author's study suggested that the probability of a woman's aborting might not increase much as she grows older. It seems possible that the apparent increase, or the greater part of it, could be explained as due to a statistical artifact. In any case it seems that M. Henry is providing an inappropriate factor to make the author's fecundability estimates comparable with earlier estimates based on conception waits.

A most important general conclusion of recent work in demography is that the present custom of analyzing population statistics only in terms of reproduction rates and other indices obtained from the fertility rates of women while taking no account of the numbers of men is unsatisfactory. The logical consequence of the present analysis would be a reproduction rate by computing the consistent nuptiality is in the stable population and by applying current fertility rates to obtain a reproduction rate. The measure of the fertility of marriage suggested above would be obtained by taking a group of marriages occurring at the same moment and calculating the average number of live births produced by them throughout their existence.

This paper discusses the theories of and the relationships between the direct and indirect methods of standardizing death rates for males, females, and persons. The author notes that the standardization procedures have two objectives, to eliminate the disturbing influences of varying age and sex distributions, and to provide reliable indications of the overall comparative mortalities of different groups. The author also points out that the Registrar General's methods and publications have always fulfilled the objectives in a thorough and practical manner.

This article discusses the role of the foreign-language press in migrant integration. In studying transatlantic migration in the nineteenth century, one might analyse the rhythm of economic growth in the principal sending countries of Europe and attempt to find a relationship between the course of migration and the changes in pace of American economic development. One might also relate the findings of such an economic analysis to a set of demographic data showing. The results of such a study would be of interest to students of select disciplines like economics and demography. There is, however, a large body of social sciences including, for instance, history, sociology, social psychology, criminology and social geography, which contribute special tools for the study of cultural factors affecting the volume and direction of international migrations. Emotional attachments to a community and to acquaintances, to a culture or language, to political and social institutions or to a way of life must be considered as factors inhibiting Trans-Atlantic movement and affecting the adjustment of migrants in the U.S.

This article focuses on the trend of the birth rate in India between the period 1911 to 1950. The Government of India, in connection with the Census of 1951, has published a report entitled Estimation of Birth and Death Rates in India during 1941-50. In this report the actuaries associated with the census of 1951 have analysed a mass of material and have tried to arrive at firm estimates of the birth and death rates for different regions of India during 1941-50. Economist Kingsley Davis has also tried to compute birth estimates for the major provinces of India during 1926-30. These two publications thus enable you to examine two independently estimated rates of omission in the two decades, i.e. 1926-30 and 1941-50. In the present paper it will be shown that the formula devised for West Bengal is valid for a much larger area, comprising the provinces of Assam, Bengal, Bihar, Orissa, Uttar Pradesh, and Madhya Pradesh. The rates of omission estimated by the author's formula for 1921-30 will be compared with the corresponding rates of omission for 1926-30 as estimated by Kingsley Davis, and it will be shown that in all the cases the two agree quite closely.

Presents an introduction to articles published in the March 1950 issue of the journal "Supplement to Population Studies."

The paper is an attempt to work out the `continuation rate' for the diaphragm and jelly method by applying the life-table technique as developed by Potter and Tietze to the data obtained in a retrospective survey of women who accepted this method from clinics in Greater Bombay. Some problems, which arise in extending the use of the life-table technique to methods other than the I.U.D. to which it has been widely applied, are discussed. The `continuation' rate as found for the diaphragm and jelly method was slightly higher than that observed for the pill in Singapore. The paper also contains an estimate of the `use-effectiveness' rate of the diaphragm and jelly method by using the life-table technique and points out that the use of this technique, as flow recommended by Tietze, does not adequately take into account Some of the biological considerations which used to figure Prominently in earlier discussions of the subject. For this reason, many of the figures on use-effectiveness which have been published by applying the life-table technique to methods, including the I.U.D., are not strictly comparable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a set of two papers, one of them published in this journal in July 1965, W. H. James defends the menstrual statistics of E. J. Farris and his co-workers and exploits these data to propose a new formula of calendar rhythm that allegedly provides maximum protection for a given amount of abstinence. The present paper argues that Farris's data are open to a suspicion of serious bias. James's estimates of various parameters of the menstrual cycle are questioned mainly on grounds of deficient data. However, it is concluded that his methods of estimation will prove useful in future analyses of menstrual variation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Assuming that the monthly chance of conceiving, fecundability, is constant for any one woman during the period of observation, but varies from one woman to another in an unspecified way, this paper investigates the expected incidence of first conceptions and the distribution of conception delays. The expected monthly incidence of first conceptions is a decreasing function of time. The mean, variance and higher moments of the distribution of fecundability (p) may be estimated from incomplete data referring to only the first few months of exposure. The distribution of conception delays is distinguished from the distribution of the number of trials needed for conception, and the moments of each are derived. When appropriate data are available to calculate the moments of the conception delay or the number of trials, the squared and cubed deviations of i/p about the harmonic mean fecundability can be estimated. These statistics may be useful descriptions of the discrepancy between an observed distribution and theoretical values expected in a homogeneous population. The correlation between two successive conception delays is also discussed in the article.

The object of this paper is to outline the results of a different method of studying marital breakdown. The opportunity for making such a study has recently arisen in the course of a national questionnaire survey of child health and growth. The chief purpose of this national survey is to build up a picture of the health and development of a broad sample of British children born in March 1946. While it was not primarily designed with the intention of investigating the subject of marital breakdown, it has provided information on its extent among British families bringing up young children in the post-war years. Furthermore, the survey has given an opportunity for contrasting the home conditions and physical development of children growing up in broken homes with those of a closely matched group of children living in stable families. This paper deals only with the extreme and obvious cases of marital breakdown, and it is restricted to those broken homes in which a legitimate child has continued to live with his or her remaining parent. The few children, who have been entirely removed from parental custody to the care of adoptive or foster-parents or children's homes, and those who were illegitimate, have not been included. It was found that while home circumstances differed considerably, the children of broken homes were not excessively retarded, nor on the whole were they more prone to suffer from childhood ailments or behavior disturbances than those in stable families.

In a previous paper a formula was derived from which the total fertility rate of a group of women could be estimated from the average number of live births to women in the reproductive period. In the present paper the argument is carried further and a method is given by which the total fertility rate may be estimated from the average number of children born to fertile women during the reproductive period. The method given in this paper may, under certain circumstances, have considerable advantages over the previous method suggested. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The analysis of population's impact on the economy has frequently been developed in the context of the dependency rate argument. The dependency rate, typically measured as the proportion of the total population outside the labour force, is a summary statistic which is intended to capture the influence of a population's age structure on the process of economic growth. This paper focuses on only one- and possibly the least understood - of the dependency rate economic influences, the saving rate. Indeed, at certain stages of economic development, the negative saving rate of the elderly could well be greater than the rate for those who have not yet entered the labour force. A debate on the relative merits of the competing models is outside the scope of the present paper. However, it is important to recognize that the interpretation of the economic impact of the dependency rate depends critically on the specific model employed. There are several modifications to the "naive" dependency-rate argument as it pertains to saving which appear critical to an analysis of this demographic statistic as a proxy for economic behaviour.

This paper explores the effects of labour force participation, urbanization, and education on the fertility attitudes and behaviour of young women. The analysis is based on interviews with 3,590 women in Taiwan, aged 18-39 in the autumn of 1971. The survey differs from previous KAP type surveys in Taiwan in including both married and unmarried women. The results show that when education is controlled, neither work experience nor urban-rural background has much effect on the desired number of children. Work experience does affect the timing of marriage and childbearing so that women who have worked away from home tend to have fewer children at a given age than those who have not had this work experience. The greatest effect is for women who continue to work after marriage, who make up only a small proportion of married women. Since these women desire almost as many children as those who do not work, their lower actual fertility may be only due to a temporary postponement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, a distinction has been drawn between the demographic analyses that have been performed on fertility (at both the macro-structural and micro-structural levels) and the social analysis of fertility, at the micro-structural level. To stress the distinctive objectives of the latter, I have labelled the dependent variable in such analyses `family formation' rather than `fertility'. Along with this re-labelling, an increased stress was placed on the need for finding new measures of family formation, that would be integrative of past demographic measurement and take account of the costs or dependency of children. The latter seemed important to any socio-economic or social analysis of family formation. A general measure of family formation processes was proposed - the `child-years-of dependency' (CYD) index. This (1) integrates demographic measures of quantity and tempo of fertility; (2) appears to discriminate among family formation patterns where some of the conventional demographic measures (especially quantity measures) do not; (3) is readily calculable from fertility histories, which are currently used in conventional demographic surveys of fertility; (4) is very flexible in taking account of `deviant' or irregular family formation patterns, such as adoption, child mortality, etc., where most conventional quantity and tempo measures in demographic studies are not; and (5) has a face validity that appears greater for social analysis of family formation than conventional demographic measures. The stress of the CYD on the dependency burden of children led to a discussion of more valid cost estimates than the simpler counting of children present in the basic CYD measure. Among the issues treated were group differentials in average costs, declining marginal costs of child-rearing, and age gradients of costs. Costs were defined minimally, in terms of dollar expenditures per child for consumption, and increased household work time entailed in child-rearing. Some existing data were used to illustrate levels and social class differentials of these various costs, recognizing the general inadequacy of available data. The need was stressed for longitudinal cost data, following families through their successive stages of family formation to see the actual and perceived levels of costs involved in rearing additional children. Finally, the inclusion of CYD measures in a general cost-benefit model of family formation was suggested. In part, this is required to balance the perspectives derived from some macro-structural cost-benefit models of economists, in understanding the persistence of high fertility, especially in underdeveloped areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In an earlier paper in this Journal this author presented a working model of marital fertility. The present paper examines how far that model is capable of serving as a `binder' for the diverse analytical hypotheses and interpretative schemes flow available in the literature on marital fertility differentials. More specifically, this paper attempts to identify the underlying explanatory factors and principles of a number of analytical hypotheses concerning fertility differentials and tests covered by the working model presented in the earlier paper. Although it cannot be claimed that this paper presents an exhaustive review of the explanatory analysis of human fertility, the results of the present exercise indicate that the working model in question is capable of serving as a `binder' for most of the important analytical hypotheses and interpretative schemes so far advanced by fertility research workers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents summary statistics of immigration into the West Indies, under indenture or government sponsorship, during the period 1834-1918. The sources reveal a few discrepancies, but are sufficiently consistent to permit the construction of a series for each of the ethnic groups introduced. Most of the problems involved in constructing these series centre around the fact that a variety of sources have to be utilised. Immigration figures of East Indians, Portuguese, Chinese, Europeans and others into the several West Indian colonies have been prepared for each calendar year or season, but to conserve space are presented here in summary form. In the case of African immigration it is possible to give their country of origin. The only group of immigrants who were involved in return movements of any consequence are the East Indians. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In papers previously published in this journal J. M. Stycos and D. M. Heer have shown that fertility is lower in the economically underdeveloped Indian-speaking parts of Peru, Ecuador and Bolivia than in the more prosperous Spanish-speaking parts. Stycos concluded that the reason for the fertility difference in Peru is the greater marital instability of the Indian speakers which decreased their total exposure to the risk of conception. Heer suggested instead that the causes of the difference may be voluntary. The present paper questions Heer's analysis, and offers the explanation that the difference may be attributed to the physiological effects of altitude. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main trend in urban/rural migration is a continuous gain, in net terms, of towns from villages and large cities. But this is a result of two distinct migration streams associated with the process of family formation. While before marriage there is positive net migration from villages to both large cities and towns (and from large cities towards towns), after marriage there is a tendency for couples to move towards villages. This is explained by the desire of families, particularly those belonging to the middle class to move out of the urban centres to better accommodation in smaller communities. Considerable variations in migrations within and into regions are observed. These reflect the continuation of long-term trends in internal migration (as described in Part I of this paper) in particular, population dispersal from Greater London and larger distance migration into the Southern and Eastern regions. Some social characteristics of migrants and non-migrants are compared. Associations between the intensity of internal migration on the one hand, and occupational status, education, social mobility and family size on the other are observed. An attempt is made to assess the extent of migration associated with the marriage process. Although this process increases mobility, its relative contribution to total adult mobility appears to be only slight. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper considers the attitude of Roman Catholics in the United States of America towards family size and suggests that large family ideals are still being put forward by the Church in publications and periodicals. The second part of the paper considers the attitudes of American Roman Catholics towards family size and shows that though there are indications that Roman Catholics regard slightly larger families as ideal than do members of other religions, the difference is not now very great. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the Monte Carlo model for simulating the reproductive history of a cohort of women is described in detail. The purposes of the model are both substantive and methodological, since it investigates the quantitative effects on reproductive performance of changes in such factors as mortality, marriage patterns, use of contraceptives and their effectiveness, size of family desired, fecundity and pregnancy wastage. The paper consists of five sections: a discussion of problems to which the model is directed, a brief description of population models, a description of the present model, a presentation of some illustrative results, and a discussion of the possible role of the model.

Fetal wastage and involuntary delays of conception combine to limit the precision with which birth intervals may be planned. In this paper a waiting-time model is used to estimate the expected time to conception following specified past delays of conception. It is assumed that a couple's monthly chance of conception, or fecundability, remains constant while, among couples, fecundability varies as a Pearson Type I curve. The model is applied with reference to three questions. First, knowing the duration of their infertility, what can a couple surmise about the likelihood of being sterile, or, if not sterile, about the additional months they will have to wait for a first conception? Second, among mothers wanting to plan a second conception, how valid is the premise that the time required for this next conception will be about as long as that required for the first? Third, in what manner does a previous history of abortion modify a mother's expectation concerning the time required for a live birth after discontinuing contraception? By assuming that the monthly chance of conception in the absence of contraception, hereafter termed fecundability, varies among couples but remains constant from month to month until Pregnancy for individual couples, one is able to treat conceptive delays as a waiting-time problem. It is the purpose of this paper to present a waiting time model, which, together with assumptions about pregnancy wastage, furnishes some preliminary answers to the questions, posed above.

This paper demonstrates that in Malaya the results of testing birth registration completeness according to the conventional method which involves a comparison of an independently estimated child population with the corresponding census population does not yield satisfactory results. This is because the assumptions underlying this method are not quite tenable under Malayan conditions. A minor modification of the method by taking into consideration Singapore-Malaya migration does not seem to have completely eliminated the shortcomings of the method. A new method utilizing data on the number of children ever born to women in the two post-war censuses taken in 1947 and 1957 is presented in this paper. It is ascertained that marked variation in the extent of under registration of births existed between the three principal races, viz. Malays, Chinese and Indians, and between the eleven States. Some of the important reasons for this variation may be traced to the differences in the rate of literacy, the number of years spent in school, the degree of urbanization and the proportion of the population residing in estates.

Contraceptive effectiveness is conventionally measured by a pregnancy rate, which reveals little about the way in which pregnancy risks vary among couples. In this paper, a technique is presented for estimating curves of pregnancy risk. The technique is applied to data from the Family Growth in Metropolitan America study for purposes of estimating how much couples would have to improve their initial contraception in order to realize, by contraception alone, the caliber of family limitation claimed by respondents late in their childbearing period.

This paper re-examines the matter of rural-urban fertility differentials in India. It is a commonplace that urban fertility is lower than rural fertility in the West, and it is frequently assumed that this holds for non-Western populations as well. In the case of India, previous studies of rural-urban fertility ratios have appeared to bear out this expectation. However, fertility ratios based on the most recent available age distributions show no significant rural-urban fertility differentials. This conclusion is supported by several recent sample surveys of children ever born and is consistent with the generally accepted fact that contraception is negligible even in the cities of India. It is noted that the virtual disappearance of the Indian rural-urban fertility ratio differential over time has in all likelihood resulted from a narrowing of the rural-urban infant and child mortality differential.

Estimates of mortality rates and expectation of life at birth, using infant mortality rates, are examined on the basis of 50 life tables for both sexes. Least squares linear estimates are given as well as estimates of their variances. Model life table calculations, as proposed by the U.N. Population Branch, are then compared with these unbiased minimum variance estimates and shown to overestimate the expectation of life by more than two years on the average, and to be at most 68 % efficient. Though better estimates are provided in this paper, their variance is still so large as to cast doubt on the practical usefulness of any estimates based exclusively on infant mortality rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper draws attention to the profound changes that are taking place in the proportions of the population of Great Britain that are single, married and widowed at various ages. These changes are the net result of a number of demographic, economic and sociological developments, such as the decrease in mortality rates and the changing balance of the sexes. After discussing an abortive attempt to forecast the future progress of the proportions, based on changes that have taken place in the recent past, the paper describes a method of estimating the pro- portions of each sex that are likely to be found in each marital status at the various attained ages in future years if the experience of the years 1950-52 in Great Britain as regards rates of marriage, divorce, widowhood and re-marriage continue indefinitely, subject to minor modifications to ensure that the numbers of marriages, etc., for the two sexes are consistent, and that the total number of married men equals that of married women. The variations in the proportions in each marital status in Great Britain during the past thirty years and those to be expected during the next thirty years, and ultimately, if the experience of the years 1950-52 persists, are set out and analysed. It is shown that, whereas the proportion of men never marrying has up to the present been about half the proportion of women never marrying, the continuance of present trends would result in the proportion of men never marrying becoming double that for women. This notable change is to be attributed, in the main, to the effect of improved vitality in childhood in replacing the excess of women at the younger adult ages by an excess of men. It is pointed out that, in the event, this change may not be fully realised, because a net emigration of men or a net immigration of women may mitigate the relative dearth of potential brides in future; but the proportions never marrying set out in the paper show the directions towards which current conditions are tending. The consequential changes for other marital statuses are also set out and discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Volume VI of the "Papers of the Royal Commission on Population," D. V. Glass and E. Grebenik present a model for estimating distributions of desired family size. The term "intended family size" will be used to designate children ever born under these hypothetical conditions of absent sterility and perfect birth control. This is to distinguish it from the family size that a couple might report as their "ideal" or "preferred" family size. This paper does not attempt a comprehensive evaluation but focuses on three aspects. First, evidence is given that asking couples for their fertility "preferences" or for their family size "ideals" does not adequately measure "intended family size." The second question raised in this paper is whether the model has yet attained its most efficient form. The assumption that the chances of another unintentional birth remain constant irrespective of the number preceding it is not only suspect, it leads to misleading results. Third, suggestions are made for modifying the model. The modifications would complicate the model but also add to its possible uses. In the passage from early marriage to later marriage, "private ideals" and "fertility preferences" change from expectations of future fertility to recollections of past intentions. This necessitates discussing "fertility preferences" in relation to more than one period of marriage.

The paper analyzes patterns of immigration and absorption of immigrants. The process of immigration is a process of physical transition from one society to another involving considerable frustrations and giving rise to many social problem among immigrants. The research is conducted with assumptions that there are three main interdependent indices of adaptation and assimilation of immigrants within their new country : institutional integration, acculturation, and personal adjustment and integration of immigrants. The research paper examines some of these implicit assumptions in order to estimate their importance for a framework of comparative analysis, and suggests such a tentative framework. The paper then attempts to apply this framework to the analysis of concrete cases of migration and assimilation of immigrants. The types of pluralistic structures arising through the absorption of immigrants are determined by the immigrants' own motivations, by the demands made on them by the absorbing society, and by the possibilities open to them in that society.

The article reviews some work on the fertility of the Jewish population of Palestine under British mandate which has until now been available in Hebrew only. Statistics regarding marriage, fertility and mortality are quoted for different sub-sections of the Jewish population, classified by origin, geographical location and profession. Most of the analysis refers to the years of the Second World War for which detailed data were available. The paper observes marriage as a factor influencing fertility. The data given shows that marriage was almost universal among Palestinian Jews. The proportion of either sex who had never been married by the end of the reproductive period was extremely low. In Palestine, the probability of marriage was high among all sections of the Jewish population. The later censuses show that the mean age at marriage has risen, but in the settlements, women seemed to marry earlier than in the rest of the country. Occupational differences in age at marriage in the towns were similar to those encountered in other countries. It is shown that wives of men in the higher occupational groups in towns married later than those of men in the lower occupational groups.

The simplest measure of the mortality experienced by children during the first year of life, for any one calendar year, is obtained by calculating the ratio of the number of infantile deaths in that calendar year to the number of births in the same calendar year. This ratio is called a crude death rate and is published annually for Australia by the Commonwealth Statistician index of infantile mortality. An alternative method for calculation of this index has been put forward by V. G. Valaoras in a paper in Population Studies, December 1950. Dr Valaoras properly points out that the simple method described above is defective, mainly because it fails to refer the infant deaths to the appropriate group of births from which the deaths arose. The first defect is not important when births are being maintained at a fairly constant level. It is, in such circumstances, not unreasonable to assume that births are evenly distributed throughout each calendar year. Recently, however, birth rates have been subject to severe variations and the distribution of births during each calendar year has been very uneven.

Illegitimacy and bridal pregnancy has attracted the attention of scholars concerned with a variety of plausible causes and consequences of births conceived out of wedlock.' Sociologists have expressed concern with the impact of such births on maternal and child health, family stability and the economic status of families. This paper provides corrected data on illegitimacy in the United States between 1920 and 1968, the earliest and the latest year for which national estimates are available. Official estimates of illegitimate births in the United States have never taken underregistration of births into account, although total births have been corrected. Studies of underregistration by age and colour make it possible to adjust illegitimate births. Although the illegitimacy ratio is frequently used as a measure of the level or change in the level of illegitimacy, it is a measure of doubtful utility because it is heavily influenced by marital births and by the structure of the population by marital status. For analytical purposes the number of illegitimate births per 1000 unmarried women of childbearing age is much preferred, because it is not directly affected by levels of marital fertility or by marital-status structure.

Annual variations are often more brutal for nuptiality than they are for other demographic phenomena. Short-term economic movements, in particular, seem to have a more direct impact. In the long run, however, nuptiality is generally considered as a much more stable factor than, say, fertility which has undergone profound changes in all industrialized countries over the past hundred years. In this article the social scientists will attempt to study these recent trends in the light of longer-term ones, by comparing nuptiality movements in four countries: Canada, the United States, Australia and New Zealand. In this paper, they study the nuptiality of birth cohorts by calculating the proportion ever-married at age 50, and mean age at first marriage. Data are not always strictly comparable between one census and another, especially in Canada and the United States where geographical coverage has varied through time. However, the numbers involved were small. Moreover, the definition of marital status has not been changed, at least not the basic distinction between single and ever-married. Through a study of nuptiality trends for the single for about a hundred different birth cohorts, they will attempt to determine whether attitudes towards marriage have changed. But first, they must eliminate the structural effects which affect the phenomenon studied. For instance, marriage becomes more difficult for women and female nuptiality decreases when there is a scarcity of potential male partners.

The present paper is part of a larger analysis of data collected in the summer of 1970 in the city of Cairo. In Cairo, a conclusion is reached. On the average, a small family norm evidently exists. The number of children considered ideal by wives lay between two and four. About 91 % of wives expressed an ideal of two, three, or four children. Wives over 45 years of age were considered as having completed childbearing. For those under 45 years old, expected completed family size is defined as the actual number of children ever born plus the number expected by the end of the wife's childbearing period. Socio-economic status has been considered of prime importance in studies of differential fertility. Some economists and demographers emphasize economic factors in determining fertility and treat fertility entirely within the framework of economic theory. They intentionally ignore social and psychological factors. On the other hand, some sociologists take the other extreme view and emphasize social factors such as religion, farm background, education, social mobility, and the like. Women's status as an indicator of modernization is measured by their exposure to the world of modern ideas. Status is indicated by whether the husband permits his wife to do certain things, namely, leaving the home by herself, working in an economically gainful occupation outside home, accompanying her husband to the movies or other social events, spending a summer vacation with the family on a beach.

Using a synthetic estimation procedure based on women's reports of their desired completed family size in ten countries with widely varying level of current population growth rates, this paper shows that with one exception, if women in these countries were experiencing only the number of births they desired, population growth rates would be of the order of 1 % per year. This finding argues against premature abandonment of 'service' strategies in favour of 'structural' strategies in programmes to reduce population growth rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Criticisms of the author's previous work on the estimation of illegal abortions in Britain before the 1967 Abortion Act, contained in a paper by Dr. W. H. James (Population Studies, 25, 2, 327, July 1971), under the four headings of maternal mortality, hospital in-patient statistics, N.O.P. Sample survey in 1966, and the Aberdeen data, are examined in detail and for the most part rejected. A comparison of legitimate and illegitimate birth rates before and after 1968, together with what is known of the incidence of legal abortion, strengthens the conclusion that estimates of 60,000-100,000 or more criminal abortions in Britain each year before 1967, as favoured by Dr. James and many other commentators, mast be grossly exaggerated, and that the true rate could not have exceeded 20,000 and was probably nearer 15,000 a year. The demographic and medical implications of this are briefly discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Earlier work has shown that tobacco consumption, primarily of cigarettes, accounted for almost half of the female-male difference in life expectancy in the United States in 1962. The present paper examines a related problem, the contribution of cigarette smoking of husbands to the high probability of widowhood for older wives and to the high expectation of widowed life for wives. The analysis is based on comparison of couple-life-table parameters by level of cigarette consumption of each spouse. A salient finding is that for initially intact couples, wife aged 37 and husband aged 39, who never divorce or re-marry after death of spouse, the probability of widowhood at age 62 for wives with non-smoking husbands is 0.125 whereas for wives with husbands who smoke 40 or more cigarettes per day it is 0.285. Another is that non-smoking wives with non-smoking husbands can expect to spend 18.7% of theft remaining years after age 37 in widowhood, whereas non-smoking wives with husbands who smoke 40 or more cigarettes a day can expect to spend 30.7 % of their remaining years in widowhood. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article begins with a brief description of the fertility situation and the family planning programme in Trinidad and Tobago, and some simple background data about the survey, the sample scheme, the characteristics of the sample population and its findings on contraceptive practice. The main purpose of the paper is to undertake some analysis of the data on contraceptive histories collected in the survey. From the analyses there is evidence of a considerable shift in the use of the various contraceptive methods as well as a significant dropout by women still in their reproductive period. The net result that the more effective methods are gaining at the expense of the less effective, the notable exception being the I.U.D. Nevertheless, there is also an appreciable movement away from the more effective methods, including the pill, either to other methods or away from contraceptive use entirely. It seems, therefore, that the newer and more effective methods have not been successful in holding users, and this would appear to emphasise the need for newer and more acceptable methods.

This article describes the contraceptive usage of the wives of Melbourne; a portrait of birth control in Sydney would undoubtedly be very similar and indeed the picture is probably a faithful representation of the situation throughout the greater part of Australia. Apart from the evidence it presents on Melbourne, the chief contribution of this paper lies in two methodological innovations. The first is the use of "main" method of family planning for specified time periods; the "main" method being defined as the method used for the greatest proportion of time during the period. The second innovation is the analysis of the contraceptive practice of those women who were not knowingly infecund at the time. By coding separately those women who were not practising birth control but believed themselves to be fecund and those who were using nothing but believed themselves to be infecund, researchers have a reasonable base from which to calculate those at risk of practising contraception. A analysis shows that levels of family planning practice have been largely a function of the period and the technology, and, with the exception of the very young still without children or pregnant at marriage and the older women with increasingly impaired fecundity, the levels of practice have varied little with age. Total practice has increased steadily so that the proportion of fecund women employing some family planning method rose from about two-thirds at the end of the 1940's, to almost three-quarters at the end of the 1950's to nine-tenths in the early 1970's.

Open live birth intervals have been suggested by some authors as a measure of fertility change, brought about by contraception, especially in the context of developing countries. But some researches made in the past few years have brought out a number of problems that limit the usefulness of the open live birth interval as an indicator of fertility change. In the present paper a computer model (expected values model) has been used to study two problems that arise in the use of open live birth intervals: (i) the dependence of the open live birth interval on age and parity of women and the effect of adjustments such as standardization on open birth intervals, and (ii) the inability of the open birth interval to indicate changing fertility under continuous and long term contraception as against short term contraception. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using special tabulations from the 1960 Census of Thailand, this paper undertakes a comparative analysis of the relation among labour force participation, education, and fertility for the urban and rural segments of the Thai population. In the metropolitan centre of Bangkok, the fertility of women in the labour force is lower than that of housewives. In rural agricultural places, the fertility of employed women is higher, although minimally so. This pattern suggests that the greater separation of work and family roles, which characterizes employment for women in the urban centre, lowers fertility. In the general absence of such a conflict in rural society, labour force participation has a minimal effect on fertility. Regardless of residence category, education is inversely related to fertility level. For older women, the sharper differential obtains between those with no schooling and those with a primary education; among younger women achievement of more than primary schooling seems to have the greatest effect on fertility levels. The analysis suggests that the lower fertility characterizing the metropolitan centre reflects the combined effects of higher education and higher rates of female labour force participation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper explores how fathers perceive the economic costs and benefits of raising children and how these perceptions influence preferred number of children and contraceptive use. Interviews were conducted for this study in 1969 with an island-wide sample of 2200 Taiwanese husbands. Analysis indicates that a complex of cost and benefit considerations has an appreciable net effect on reproductive attitudes and behaviour, after socio-economic status and demographic characteristics have been taken into account. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper outlines an interpretation of the modern rise of population based on experience of England and Wales and examines the credibility of this interpretation in the light of the different circumstances which existed in four other European countries: Sweden, France, Ireland and Hungary. It suggests that it is desirable to consider the modern rise of population as a whole, and to examine the post-registration period before turning to the uncertainties of the eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries. Using this approach in England and Wales the authors conclude that population growth was not influenced by improved sanitation before about 1870 or by specific medical measures before the introduction of the sulphonamides in 1935. They attribute the rise of population in the eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries to a decline of mortality which resulted from improvement in diet. The grounds for this conclusion are threefold: there was a large increase in food production; none of the alternative explanations is adequate; and in the conditions which existed at the beginning of the eighteenth century improvement in diet was a necessary condition for a prolonged expansion of population. The basis of these assertions is discussed at some length. The data for the four other countries, although less complete, are consistent with this interpretation. There is no reason to believe that medical measures or improved hygiene were elsewhere effective earlier than in England and Wales, and, with some differences in timing, advances in agriculture occurred throughout Europe from the seventeenth century. The fact that the decline of mortality and improvement in food supplies preceded industrialization in Sweden, and probably in Ireland, suggests that the initial phase of population growth was not dependent on it. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the social status of women who married into the British peerage during the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries. The majority of marriages by peers and their sons were outside the peerage. The occupations of the wives' fathers is used to indicate that the families from which wives were selected were largely those of rank and esteem in contemporary British Society. Marriages outside the peerage took place in a narrowly-defined band of privilege and social acceptability. The paper shows that the numbers of marriages into groups like the new industrial bourgeoisie were negligible, and had a marginal impact on the social exclusiveness of the peerage. The separate analysis of the marriages in each rank of the peerage, and of the marriages of heirs and younger sons, reveals that an ethic of endogamy prevailed within the peerage even for those marriages taking place in the twentieth century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper develops two models, each of which is designed to estimate the probability of surviving from birth to selected exact ages of early childhood: namely ages two, three and five. The models are designed for use in areas with deficient registration systems. They require, as input, statistics which can be derived from retrospective data supplied by census or survey respondents. The first model, the age model, converts statistics on the proportion dead of children ever born to women in age groups 20-24, 25-29 and 30-34 into estimates of q2, q3 and q5. The second model, the marriage model, converts statistics on the proportion dead of children ever born to women of five-year marriage duration intervals into these estimates. The models can be used independently or simultaneously. These models were developed from data generated by a large number of empirical fertility and mortality schedules. Regression analysis was used to determine the parameter values of the relationships specified, and several sets of equations for estimating values of qa for a =2, 3 and 5 comprise the final product of the paper. It should be noted that the conceptual basis for the models was first derived by William Brass. The data generated for the regression analysis provided an opportunity to test the original Brass estimated model. We are able to report that the model performed well over the wide range of fertility and mortality conditions included in the test. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The registration of births and deaths in India, even at present, is too inadequate to be of much help in estimating fertility and mortality conditions in the country. From time to time, Indian census actuaries have constructed life tables indirectly by comparing one census age distribution with the preceding one. Because of inaccurate age reporting in Indian censuses, it was essential for those who constructed life tables to smooth the age distributions. The results obtained depended to a large extent on the method chosen for smoothing. This paper is an attempt to estimate some demographic measures for the nine census years between 1881 and 1961 by applying uniform computational methods to the data of all years. The measures, by sex, include an abridged life table, the growth rate, birth rate and death rate and as a by-product of, rather than a prerequisite for, obtaining other measures, the smoothed age distribution. The basic assumption underlying this paper is that, for all practical purposes, the Indian population can be considered as stable or quasi-stable for a period of 100 years in the immediate past.

The article analysis short-run variations in marital fertility in Sweden during the period 1830-1879 in order to explore different models of fertility determination before the secular decline of fertility took place, and to use fertility data to demonstrate a method of studying sociological trends and oscillations. One of the main determinants of aggregate marital fertility, the total number of legitimate births or the legitimate birth rate, is the number of marriages, and fluctuations in that number. It will be shown that if this were the sole determinant the result would be a very high degree of smoothness in the response, fertility. Auto-correlations would be high, much higher than actually observed. So a simple inspection of the response series and the correlogram is sufficient to reject this explanation, even if there were no direct statistical information on the annual number of marriages. But as direct information on marriages is available, this may be used to compute the expected level of aggregate marital fertility assuming a constant fertility schedule by duration of marriage. This turns out to follow the smooth pattern predicted, whilst observed fertility shows much more pronounced short-term variations.