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The article presents the authors' views in response to a comment on their paper "Patterns of Low and Lowest-Low Fertility in Europe," published in a 2004 issue of the journal "Population Studies." In their comment, the critics have argued that the cohort-fertility analysis in the aforesaid paper is weak on theoretical grounds and the empirical analysis is incomplete. The authors affirm that they agree with the comment that, as a society, the Netherlands differs from Southern Europe and even more from Central and Eastern Europe. Nevertheless, from a contemporary global perspective, these differences should not be overemphasized. They say that in their analyses, they used the Netherlands as a reference case of a country with an extraordinary pattern of late childbearing that is not associated with lowest-low fertility levels. However, the critics believe that these unusual characteristics invalidate the use of the Dutch example in the paper. So, this criticism is misconceived. It is precisely the unusualness of the fertility pattern in the Netherlands that makes it a useful reference point in the study of low and lowest-low fertility.

The article presents the authors' comments on the paper entitled, "Patterns of Low and Lowest-Low Fertility in Europe," by Francesco C. Billari and Hans-Peter Kohler, published in a 2004 issue of the journal "Population Studies." In their comment, the authors argue that the original authors' comparison of cohort-fertility patterns in the lowest-low fertility countries of Southern, Central, and Eastern Europe with Dutch cohort patterns is weak on theoretical grounds and that the empirical analysis is incomplete. The empirical analysis demonstrates that in the young cohorts of Southern, Central, and Eastern Europe, childbearing may very well decline below the levels observed in the Netherlands and in other West European countries. This is already happening in Southern Europe. Moreover, the childbearing surplus in early adulthood is evaporating, and the recuperation that would be needed for completed cohort fertility in these countries to remain above that of many West European countries is of such magnitude that it is doubtful whether it could occur.

This paper examines causality and parameter instability in the long-run relationship between fertility and women's employment This is done by a cross-national comparison of macro-level time-series data from 1960 to 2000 for France, West Germany, Italy, Sweden, the UK, and the USA. By applying vector error correction models (a combination of Granger-causality tests with recent econometric time-series techniques) we find causality in both directions. This finding is consistent with simultaneous movements of both variables brought about by common exogenous factors such as social norms, social institutions, financial incentives, and the availability and acceptability of contraception. We find a negative and significant correlation until about the mid-1970's and an insignificant or weaker negative correlation afterwards. This result is consistent with a recent hypothesis in the demographic literature according to which changes in the institutional context, such as changes in childcare availability and attitudes towards working mothers, might have reduced the incompatibility between child-rearing and the employment of women. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Part I of this paper (published in the previous issue) we outlined the major contrasts in demographic experience between almost all areas of Scotland and most of England during the later nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. We also demonstrated the existence of significant regional differences within Scotland. In Part II. interpretations are offered for these various contrasts in experience. Four Scottish regional case studies are examined, each of which shows a different combination of nuptiality, marital fertility and out-migration. In studying each case, stress is laid on the ways in which the prevailing demographic regime, if it is examined as an interrelated whole, can be seen as involving highly appropriate adjustments to the ecological, economic, and institutional contexts of the region. In this approach, `innovation' aspects of the fertility decline are therefore played down: instead, for some parts of the country in particular, continued very high fertility among those who married is seen as a highly rational response to particular local social and economic situations which also encouraged very low nuptiality, and moderate or high levels of out-migration. The much lower nuptiality in Scotland compared to England is explained in part by reference to constraints on access to housing and the very limited availability of any support from the Poor Law, and in part through limited economic opportunities in a more slowly growing economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In France, as in many other Western European countries, attitudes and behaviour regarding marriage have changed drastically over the past 20 years. One of the major changes has been the increasing propensity to begin one's matrimonial career outside marriage: two-thirds of first unions begun in 1983-85 were outside marriage. A special survey was carried out at the end of 1985 to collect detailed information on life-courses for a sample of 4,091 women and men aged between 21 and 44 years. In a previous paper, we focused on the characteristics and on the outcome of first unions,¹ with no account of interactions with fertility, which will be the guideline of the present paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper a combination of methods is used to investigate the determinants of birth- interval length in a single city in Burkina Faso. First, a multi-round survey provided accurate measurement of dates of reproductive events. Secondly, open-ended interviews with a sub-sample of women from the survey were tape-recorded and transcribed. In order to disentangle the direct and indirect biological and behavioural determinants of birth-interval length, seven series of hazards models were estimated. These results were compared with women's perceptions of the same relationships revealed in the in-depth interviews. The lesson we draw is that no single data-collection strategy can provide answers to all questions of interest. The multi-round survey provides accurate information on actual behaviour, but at great cost. The in-depth interviews enable the investigator to study norms and motivations, but this method is impractical for data collection for a large representative sample. Combining the two strategies can yield insights that may enhance the effectiveness of programme interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a new method for estimating the effect of child mortality on the total fertility rate (TFR). The method is based on discrete-time survival models of parity progression that allow construction of a multivariate multidimensional life table of fertility with four dimensions: woman's age, parity, duration in parity, and number of previous child deaths. Additional socio-economic variables are included in the set of predictor variables in the underlying survival models of parity progression. The life table yields a replacement rate, which measures the effect of one additional child death on the TFR. The method is illustrated by applying it to three Indian National Family Health Surveys. Major findings are that dead children are incompletely replaced, and that the replacement rate rises as the TFR falls, reflecting women's increasing ability to control their fertility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents estimates of the level and trend of the fertility of different ethnic minorities in the UK from the 1960s up to 2006. The fertility estimates are derived primarily from the Labour Force Survey using the Own-Child method, with additional information from the General Household Survey and vital registration data. Comparisons are made between the level of fertility of UK-born and immigrant mothers from minority groups, and the fertility of the populations in the country of origin. Total fertility in all groups has fallen from levels that were initially relatively high. That of some UK ethnic groups has already fallen to about the level of the UK national average (e.g., black Caribbean) or below it (e.g., Indian and Chinese). Only among Pakistani and Bangladeshi women does total fertility remain substantially above the national average despite a continuous decrease over the last 20 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Inadequate data and apartheid policies have meant that, until recently, most demographers have not had the opportunity to investigate the level of, and trend in, the fertility of South African women. The 1996 South Africa Census and the 1998 Demographic and Health Survey provide the first widely available and nationally representative demographic data on South Africa since 1970. Using these data, this paper describes the South African fertility decline from 1955 to 1996. Having identified and adjusted for several errors in the 1996 Census data, the paper argues that total fertility at that time was 3.2 children per woman nationally, and 3.5 children per woman for African South Africans. These levels are lower than in any other sub-Saharan African country. We show also that fertility in South Africa has been falling since the 1960s. Thus, fertility transition predates the establishment of a family planning programme in the country in 1974. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

After a promising start some three decades ago, the application of micro-economic analysis to fertility studies has proved disappointing. It has not led to an increased understanding of fertility decisions nor to the policy insights which had been expected. This paper considers the reasons for this disappointment. It reviews briefly the development of the now dominant version of the economic approach to fertility analysis, the so-called "Chicago Model". It concludes that several basic conceptual and theoretical weaknesses of this approach have led it up a blind alley. The paper concludes with suggestions for new assumptions and approaches which may make the theory more relevant for policy programmes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reviews and interprets recent demographic trends and prospects in the two Irelands, North and South. We discuss both the influence of religion on demographic behaviour, and the impact of demographic trends on the distribution by religion. In the Republic of Ireland, we show that the long-standing gap in marital fertility between Catholics and others had virtually disappeared by the 1980s. In Northern Ireland the gap is still there in the 1990s, though considerably reduced. However, estimates of its size hinge on how the significant proportion of non-respondents to the census question on religion are allocated. We identify some peculiarities of the non-respondent population which imply that it was more `Catholic' in 1991 than first reports suggested. The Catholic share of Northern Ireland's population may accordingly be larger -42 to 43 per cent - than previously thought. In both communities, the future of the Catholic share depends less on fertility than on migration patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the effects of the fertility desires of marital partners on subsequent fertility. In particular, we attempt to identify the role played by disagreement between the spouses in predicting the couple's fertility outcome. The results indicate that when husband and wife disagree about whether or not they want another child, the fertility desires of both partners are equally important in determining whether the couple actually have an additional birth. The dominance of men in sub-Saharan African societies tends to operate in the present study only in the initial stages of a couple's reproductive lives (associated with four or fewer children). This tendency is offset by the stronger influence of the wife's desire in the later stages. Thus, we conclude that fertility research in sub-Saharan Africa should solicit information from men and women, and any programme or policy that aims to promote fertility decline in the region must involve both sexes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Easterlin's supply-demand framework for the determinants of fertility is widely accepted because it has brought conceptual clarity to the study of factors that underlie the childbearing process. This model has not, however, succeeded in quantifying the fertility determinants in a convenient and generally accepted manner. The variant of Easterlin's model presented in this paper aims to remove obstacles to empirical implementation. In addition to quantifying the supply and demand factors, a new variable, the degree of preference implementation, is introduced to measure the role of costs and benefits of fertility regulation. Applications of this alternative method, to data from surveys in 18 less developed countries indicate that recent declines in fertility have largely been due to reductions in the demand for births, and to increases in preference implementation. Changes in the supply of births appear to have played only a minor role. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper information collected in the World Fertility Survey on durations of breastfeeding and postpartum abstinence and amenorrhoea is used. Rates of conception and of resumption of menstruation are presented for four breastfeeding states: full breastfeeding, partial breastfeeding, weaned, and never breastfed. The various patterns of breastfeeding affect resumption of menstruation in consistent and expected directions. Continued breastfeeding beyond the resumption of menstruation and of sexual relations exerts a considerable contraceptive effect in all twelve countries considered, although interesting differences also emerge. The consequences of these findings are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Parity progression measures are uniquely suited to the study of fertility in China, because Chinese policies and programmes focus so closely on parity and birth order. In this paper we present period parity progression ratios for China and its urban and rural areas for the years 1955-81, using the birth history data from the one-per-thousand fertility survey of 1982. Our period parity progression ratios differ from those introduced by Henry in that they provide an overall level of fertility which may be compared with measures based on age-specific birth rates. We compare the two measures empirically for China, finding both similarities and divergences, and then analyse the relation between them. It is suggested that, where fertility is low and fluctuating, as in China, the parity-progression- based measures provide a substantially truer picture of fertility levels and trends than do age-based measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper challenges the widely held and influential view that the fertility transition is largely the consequence of changing parental demand for children brought about by changes in the economic costs and benefits entailed in childbearing. Using evidence from both historical and contemporary populations we argue that demand theories do not offer a plausible explanation of the fertility transition. Instead, we propose that ideational, rather than structural, economic change lies at the heart of the transition. In particular, we suggest that attitudes to birth control, broadly defined, play a crucial role. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The modernization of reproductive behaviour in the Netherlands was late and slow in comparison to other European countries. In this paper marital fertility (Ig) and nuptiality (Im) between 1850 and 1960 are described and analysed, in this way adding the Dutch case to the studies of the European Fertility Project. In the analysis a model is used in which economy, attitudes and infant mortality are the (clusters of) independent variables, and either Ig or Im is the dependent one. To avoid multicollinearity the interdependencies of the explaining factors are eliminated. An analysis is made of both the level and the development of fertility and nuptiality. The model used fits the data well, and the distinction between level and development is of great importance. If analyzed statistically the variance in Im and Ig between the provinces can for the most part be explained by the attitudinal factor, while when analyzing the changes in nuptiality and marital fertility the economic factor has the strongest explanatory power. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As there has been a long tradition of Indian emigration to overseas countries, a study of the fertility trends of Indian communities overseas can provide an interesting illustration of the adaptation of migrants' fertility behaviour to new economic and social conditions. In this paper, statistics relating to the fertility of a number of overseas Indian communities are brought together, and it is shown that during the 1950s and 1960s the fertility of these communities tended to be higher than in the areas from which the migrants originated, but that it declined more quickly during the last 20 years and is now generally lower than in the areas of origin. The significance of these findings is discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Earlier work by Page and Coale has estimated demographic indices of fertility and mortality for parts of Africa using the Sullivan modification of Brass's technique. The present paper presents modified and more accurate estimates of fertility and child mortality, not only for the sub-national units covered by Page and Coale but also for areas not covered by them. The present analysis which employs Trussell's refinement of Brass and Sullivan's techniques also includes improvements overlooked in earlier estimates. The salient finding that emerges is that while the Brass mortality technique is very powerful, his equally ingenious fertility technique is very weak and should not be relied on for estimating fertility parameters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is argued in this paper that "perceptions" about the determinants of fertility and of fertility decline can be "politicized" by various special interest groups; that is, these perceptions can be used to push for policies and interventions which often have an ambiguous relationship to actual fertility, but are important because they already appear on the political agenda of these groups. Such politicization is facilitated by the near-universal consensus that fertility decline is a legitimate goal in the developing world, by the increasing evidence that there can be no grand theory of fertility decline, and by the willingness of scholars to attach a policy significance to all their findings. Two examples of such politicization in India are presented, one of which has a socially beneficial impact, whilst the other is potentially disruptive, to illustrate that such politicization is not without its dangers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article examines the effect of Catholicism on fertility in the United States. It is shown that many studies on Catholicism and fertility are seriously flawed because of sample selection bias, which occurs because ex-Catholics prefer smaller families than non-Catholics. It has been found that religious activity has no effect on fertility if it is treated as an endogenous variable. Further, it is shown that the fertility transition in the United States is partly related to the changing effect of Catholic norms. Thus, the direct effect of economic variables, such as women's earnings, on fertility might have been overstated by economists. In this study, wife's schooling is used as a proxy for her earning ability, because the quality of data available on wife's earnings is low, and also because it is not possible to identify the relationship between wife's earnings and fertility with the data at hand. Thirdly, wife's schooling is an important determinant of her earning ability. It might also reduce fertility by increasing her ability to plan family size. It has been shown that current religion is not necessarily independent of fertility decisions. Results indicate that a positive effect of Catholicism on fertility is inflated, when current religious status is used as a measure. The study also explains the divergence between Catholic and non-Catholic fertility that has been claimed to have occurred during the `baby boom' period. This study also shows that the results are affected by whether the husband's or the wife's religion is used in the estimate. The results also indicate that Catholic norms have a highly significant positive effect on fertility for respondents born before 1920. Variations in fertility after this period are at best weakly related to a Catholic upbringing. This implies that changes in fertility over time are at least partly associated with changes in the influence of norms.

In this analysis, data from the Korean National Fertility Survey of 1974 are used to seek to explain differences in the pace of fertility in terms of differences in contraception, breastfeeding and other intermediate variables. Strong effects are found for these variables, particularly contraception. Nonetheless, virtually none of the effects of the socio-economic variables can be explained in our full model. Overall, our first models, which included only the socio-economic variables, contained 44 significant coefficients. With the introduction of the intermediate variables, only eleven of these coefficients became non-significant (while six others became significant). Thus, though using excellent data, we cannot begin to reproduce what theory predicts. The analysis suggests that this is a consequence of both measurement error and omitted intermediate variables, such as coital frequency. There are strong theoretical reasons for attempting to elucidate the mediating role of proximate variables by using individual data. Nonetheless, these findings, together with similar results obtained by others, strongly suggest that this is not likely to be a fruitful line of future endeavour. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Full Birth History has become the dominant source of estimates of fertility levels and trends for countries lacking complete birth registration. An alternative, the ‘Own Children’ method, derives fertility estimates from household age distributions, but is now rarely used, partly because of concerns about its accuracy. We compared the estimates from these two procedures by applying them to 56 recent Demographic and Health Surveys. On average, ‘Own Children’ estimates of recent total fertility rates are 3 per cent lower than birth-history estimates. Much of this difference stems from selection bias in the collection of birth histories: women with more children are more likely to be interviewed. We conclude that full birth histories overestimate total fertility, and that the ‘Own Children’ method gives estimates of total fertility that may better reflect overall national fertility. We recommend the routine application of the ‘Own Children’ method to census and household survey data to estimate fertility levels and trends. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

We investigated associations between later-life health and fertility history for women and men, using the British Household Panel Survey. We modelled health and its rate of change jointly with sample retention over an 11-year period. For women, childlessness is associated with limitation of activity for health reasons and faster acquisition of the limitation. High parity (four or more children) is associated with poorer health for both women and men. For the parous, this association is also found when age at first birth is controlled. Early parenthood is associated with poorer health. For parents of two or more children, a birth interval of less than 18 months is associated with having a health limitation and an accelerated rate of acquiring it. We conclude that biosocial pathways link parenthood careers and the later-life health of both women and men, and that implications of closely spaced births for parents merit further attention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We explored the relation between fertility and the business cycle in Latin America. First, we used aggregate data on fertility rates and economic performance for 18 countries. We then studied these same associations in the transitions to first, second, and third births with DHS individual data for ten countries. The results show that in general, childbearing declined during economic downturns. The decline was mainly associated with increasing unemployment rather than slowdowns in the growth of gross domestic product, although there was a positive relationship between first-birth rates and growth. While periods of unemployment may be a good time to have children because opportunity costs are lower, in fact childbearing was reduced or postponed, especially among the most recent cohorts and among urban and more educated women. The finding is consistent with the contention that, during this particular period in Latin America, income effects were dominant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Comparative research on the preferred sex of children in Western societies has generally focused on women only and ignored the role of gender equity and the need for children's economic support in old age. A multilevel analysis extends existing research by examining, for both men and women and across 24 European countries, the effect of the preferred sex-composition of offspring on whether parents have or intend to have a third child. Using the European Social Survey (2004/5), a multilevel (random coefficient) ordered logit regression of that intention (N=3,323) and a binary logistic multilevel model of the transition to a third child (N=6,502) demonstrate the presence of a mixed-sex preference. In countries with a high risk of poverty in old age, a preference for sons is found, particularly for men. In societies where there is lower gender equity, both men and women have a significant preference for boys. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using aggregate time-series data from post-war Hungary, we investigated the effect of child-related benefits and pensions on overall fertility and fertility by birth order. The results indicate moderate effects that are robust across a wide range of specifications. According to our estimates, a 1-per-cent increase in child-related benefits would increase total fertility by 0.2 per cent, while the same increase in pensions would decrease fertility by 0.2 per cent. The magnitude of both effects increases by birth order; this is more robust for child-related benefits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Poland experienced a rapid fertility decline after the end of the socialist regime in 1989. At the same time, it became much more difficult, especially for women, to act on their determination to find and keep paid employment. To investigate whether women postponed childbearing until they found a job, we undertook a simultaneous estimation of transitions to childbirth and entry to and exit from employment. The results reveal a strong incompatibility between childbearing and employment, but also that employment does not function as a barrier to childbearing but rather that it is an important precursor when women plan how to reconcile their intentions to work and to have children. We conclude that better prospects for women's employment could result in increased fertility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While lower fertility is commonly associated with women's reproductive autonomy, we demonstrate that the influence of men's education on reproductive decision-making increased during the first decade of rapid fertility decline in Ghana. Husband's education exerts a stronger influence on wife's fertility intentions than does her own education, and the magnitude of the effect of his education increased significantly from 1988 to 1998. Lower fertility in Ghana seems to be associated more with men's declining fertility desires than with women's increasing reproductive autonomy. Nevertheless, there is some indication that women's education may play a relatively greater role in reproductive decision-making as fertility decline progresses still further. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The phenomenon of lowest-low fertility, defined as total fertility below 1.3, is now emerging throughout Europe and is attributed by many to postponement of the initiation of childbearing. Here an investigation of the case of Ukraine, where total fertility--1.1 in 2001--is one of the world's lowest, shows that there is more than one pathway to lowest-low fertility. Although Ukraine has undergone immense political and economic transformations in the past decade, it has maintained a young age at first birth and nearly universal childbearing. Analyses of official national statistics and the Ukrainian Reproductive Health Survey show that fertility declined to very low levels without a transition to a later pattern of childbearing. Findings from focus-group interviews are used to suggest explanations of the early fertility pattern. These include the persistence of traditional norms for childbearing and the roles of men and women, concerns about medical complications and infertility at a later age, and the link between early fertility and early marriage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We use data from the nationally representative 1997 Demographic and Reproductive Health Survey to examine use of maternity services in rural China. The data indicate that roughly 60 per cent of women had at least one prenatal visit, while 40 per cent had a professionally assisted birth over the period 1 988-97. Despite China's shift from a more socialist to a more privatized health care system, use of maternity services increased over this period. These increases are consistent with the push toward integration of reproductive health into family planning that emerged after the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development and the 1995 Fourth World Women's Conference held in Beijing. At the same time, we find indirect evidence that the target-based population policy may well have exerted downward pressure on use of maternity services; differences by parity are marked and multilevel models predicting use of maternity services indicate underdispersion at the individual level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Influences on the fertility of men during the American fertility decline are examined using a sample of about 1700 married men born between 1830 and 1880, all of whom attended Amherst College, Massachusetts. We consider two types of reduced fertility: involuntary childlessness as a function of health in early adulthood, and voluntary fertility control as a function of access to contraceptive technology, The relation between health, as measured by body mass index, and childlessness was nonlinear, with average sized men significantly more likely ever to father children than thin or bulky men. Among men who ever fathered a child, physicians fathered significantly fewer children while having probabilities of childlessness that were statistically indistinguishable from those of other men. Physicians may have had greater access to relatively new contraceptive technologies, which suggests a role for voluntary fertility control. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study uses data from the 1990 Census of China for Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region to examine phenomena that, to date, have been examined primarily at the national level: fertility and sex ratios at birth of women who already have at least one surviving child. Comparing data for Uighurs, Kazakhs, Hui, and Han, it finds enormous differences in fertility between the nationalities in the presence of high levels of fertility control. Also, for all four nationalities the extent of fertility control is dependent on the sex of surviving children. Women who had no previous sons, or who had many daughters, were likely to continue to try to have children even at ages and parities past which they would normally have stopped childbearing. Finally, disproportionately feminine sex ratios at birth are found for couples who have had several sons and no daughters. Hence, researchers interested in the question of unusual sex ratios at birth in China need to account for `missing boys' as well as `missing girls' [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article I argue that pre-transitional natural fertility was sometimes controlled through birth-spacing, and that coitus interruptus was probably an important means of such control. First, the motivation for spacing was often strong, although not necessarily associated with a desire for family limitation; and control throughout much harder to detect than a parity-dependent deceleration of the role of only bearable has been identified unequivocally in some pre-transitional and transitional populations. Secondly, coitus interruptus is reasonably effective and harmonizes with ancient and persistent notions of reproductive physiology: and evidence for its use comes both from statements of criticism and advocacy, and from a rich set of metaphors and empiricisms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This report describes a study of the fertility experience of an Amazon Indian tribe that has shown evidence of having the highest documented fertility of any human group. The Shipibo, who live in the upper Peruvian Amazon, are experiencing rapid cultural change, including a decline in the prevalence of polygyny. This study tests the specific hypotheses that polygyny limits individual female and community fertility through the mechanism of post partum sexual abstinence and longer birth intervals. Total population counts in eight villages and reproductive histories of all females age 13 + show that mean birth interval lengths of polygynous women are four months longer than those of monogamous women. Fertility of polygynous women was lower, with 1.3 fewer term-births per reproductive span than that of monogamous women. The community general fertility rate is negatively associated with the proportion of polygynous birth intervals in the community. In this study, cultural change is strongly associated with higher fertility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fecundability - the monthly probability of conception - incorporates both physiological and behavioural elements that vary across a woman's reproductive life span. How much of the variation in fecundability during the reproductive period can be attributed to age- related changes in physiology, and how much to variation in coital frequency? We use a mathematical model of fecundability to consider this question. Intra-uterine mortality has an important effect on fecundability: effective fecundability (the likelihood of a conception that results in a live birth) is less than half of total fecundability (the likelihood of any conception) at nearly all ages when coital frequency is held constant. The change in effective fecundability with increasing coital frequency is non-linear: it declines with increasing frequency. At all coital frequencies, the effects of increasing physiological age are greatest at the youngest and oldest reproductive ages, while between the ages of 20 and 30 physiological change has only a small impact on effective fecundability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based primarily on census data between 1887 and 1920, the present article explores the basic structure of the social and economic factors that influenced marital fertility levels during the early part of the fertility transition in Spain. Multiple regression analysis is applied to ecological models based on separate rural and urban data. While some of the conclusions from the Princeton European Fertility Project have been corroborated, a number of the results have been quite noteworthy. Not the least of these are the sharply differing structures of causality in rural and urban areas, and the surprising and consistent role played by literacy as a stimulant of marital fertility. In the discussion of the results, we have insisted on the importance of interpreting different demographic, economic, and cultural indicators within concrete historical contexts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article focuses on the sensitivity of estimated fertility levels and trends to alternative interpretations of responses in fertility surveys. It uses data from the 1975 Bangladesh Fertility Survey. It presents some simple mathematical models to evaluate the consequences of an erroneous interpretation. The author also presents some guidelines for a correct interpretation. It refers to a package program of the Central Office of the World Fertility Survey which edits and imputes different types of dates in World Fertility Survey questionnaires. It is found that in Bangladesh, the imputation had no serious impact upon, fertility levels.