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Abstract Background Mortality rate estimation in small areas can be difficult due the low number of events/exposure (i.e. stochastic error). If the death records are not completed, it adds a systematic uncertainty on the mortality estimates. Previous studies in Brazil have combined demographic and statistical methods to partially overcome these issues. We estimated age- and sex-specific mortality rates for all 5,565 Brazilian municipalities in 2010 and forecasted probabilistic mortality rates and life expectancy between 2010 and 2030. Methods We used a combination of the Tool for Projecting Age-Specific Rates Using Linear Splines (TOPALS), Bayesian Model, Spatial Smoothing Model and an ad-hoc procedure to estimate age- and sex-specific mortality rates for all Brazilian municipalities for 2010. Then we adapted the Lee-Carter model to forecast mortality rates by age and sex in all municipalities between 2010 and 2030. Results The adjusted sex- and age-specific mortality rates for all Brazilian municipalities in 2010 reveal a distinct regional pattern, showcasing a decrease in life expectancy in less socioeconomically developed municipalities when compared to estimates without adjustments. The forecasted mortality rates indicate varying regional improvements, leading to a convergence in life expectancy at birth among small areas in Brazil. Consequently, a reduction in the variability of age at death across Brazil’s municipalities was observed, with a persistent sex differential. Conclusion Mortality rates at a small-area level were successfully estimated and forecasted, with associated uncertainty estimates also generated for future life tables. Our approach could be applied across countries with data quality issues to improve public policy planning.

Background: Mortality rate estimation in small areas can be difficult due the low number of events/exposure (i.e. stochastic error). If the death records are not completed, it adds a systematic uncertainty on the mortality estimates. Previous studies in Brazil have combined demographic and statistical methods to partially overcome these issues. We estimated age- and sex-specific mortality rates for all 5,565 Brazilian municipalities in 2010 and forecasted probabilistic mortality rates and life expectancy between 2010 and 2030. Methods: We used a combination of the Tool for Projecting Age-Specific Rates Using Linear Splines (TOPALS), Bayesian Model, Spatial Smoothing Model and an ad-hoc procedure to estimate age- and sex-specific mortality rates for all Brazilian municipalities for 2010. Then we adapted the Lee-Carter model to forecast mortality rates by age and sex in all municipalities between 2010 and 2030. Results: The adjusted sex- and age-specific mortality rates for all Brazilian municipalities in 2010 reveal a distinct regional pattern, showcasing a decrease in life expectancy in less socioeconomically developed municipalities when compared to estimates without adjustments. The forecasted mortality rates indicate varying regional improvements, leading to a convergence in life expectancy at birth among small areas in Brazil. Consequently, a reduction in the variability of age at death across Brazil's municipalities was observed, with a persistent sex differential. Conclusion: Mortality rates at a small-area level were successfully estimated and forecasted, with associated uncertainty estimates also generated for future life tables. Our approach could be applied across countries with data quality issues to improve public policy planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Background Life expectancy at birth (LE) has been calculated for states and counties. LE estimates at these levels mask health disparities in local communities. There are no nationwide estimates at the sub-county level. We present a stepwise approach for calculating LE using census tracts in New York state to identify health disparities. Methods Our study included 2751 census tracts in New York state, but excluded New York City. We used population data from the 2010 United States Census and 2008–2010 mortality data from the state health department. Tracts were assigned to 99.97% of the deaths. We removed tracts which had a majority of people living in group quarters. Deaths in these tracts are often recorded elsewhere. Of the remaining 2679 tracts, 6.6% of the tracts had standard errors ≥ 2 years. A geographic aggregation tool was used to aggregate tracts with fewer than 60 deaths, and then aggregate areas that had standard errors of ≥ 2 years. Results Aggregation resulted in a 9.9% reduction in the number of areas. Tracts with

Background: Life expectancy at birth (LE) has been calculated for states and counties. LE estimates at these levels mask health disparities in local communities. There are no nationwide estimates at the sub-county level. We present a stepwise approach for calculating LE using census tracts in New York state to identify health disparities. Methods: Our study included 2751 census tracts in New York state, but excluded New York City. We used population data from the 2010 United States Census and 2008-2010 mortality data from the state health department. Tracts were assigned to 99.97% of the deaths. We removed tracts which had a majority of people living in group quarters. Deaths in these tracts are often recorded elsewhere. Of the remaining 2679 tracts, 6.6% of the tracts had standard errors ≥ 2 years. A geographic aggregation tool was used to aggregate tracts with fewer than 60 deaths, and then aggregate areas that had standard errors of ≥ 2 years. Results: Aggregation resulted in a 9.9% reduction in the number of areas. Tracts with < 2% of population living below the poverty level had a LE of 82.8 years, while tracts with a poverty level ≥ 25% had a LE of 75.5. We observed differences in LE in border areas, of up to 10.4 years, when excluding or including deaths of study area residents that occurred outside the study area. The range and standard deviation at the county level (77.5-82.8, SD = 1.2 years) were smaller than our final sub-county areas (64.7-92.0, SD = 3.3 years). The correlation between LE and poverty were similar and statistically significant (p < 0.0001) at the county (r = - 0.58) and sub-county level (r = - 0.58). The correlations between LE and percent African-American at the county level were (r = 0.11, p = 0.43) and at the sub-county level (r = - 0.25, p < 0.0001). Conclusion: The proposed approach for geocoding and aggregation of mortality and population data provides a solution for health departments to produce stable empirically-derived LE estimates using data coded to the tract. Reliable estimates within sub-county areas are needed to aid public health officials in focusing preventive health programs in areas where health disparities would be masked by county level estimates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]