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The objective of this empirical exercise was to examine how drug providers in states that implemented the Medicaid expansion in 2014 reacted to the expansion compared with providers in states where Medicare was not expanded. Medicaid beneficiaries have been susceptible to higher cost and lower quality of health care. The Affordable Care Act increased access to drugs for uninsured people. Numerous studies highlighted the effects of the Medicaid expansion on beneficiaries. However, there is a gap in the literature that looks at prescription behavior of physicians during the Medicaid expansion that compared expanded states versus nonexpanded states. A difference-in-differences regression was used to estimate the average treatment effect of implementing the Medicaid expansion on each of the 6 outcomes of interest: (1) total cost of prescribing drugs, (2) number of total drug claims for non-Medicaid beneficiaries, (3) number of drug claims for Medicaid beneficiaries, (4) number of beneficiaries, (5) number of beneficiaries who were 65 years old or older, and (6) ratio of brand-name drugs. To address potential estimation biases, a matching procedure was used to ensure that pre- and post-Medicaid period trends were parallel. Our results provide evidence that, on average, the Medicaid expansion led each provider in expanded states prescribed more drugs for beneficiaries with low-income subsidies, whereas prescribed less drugs for other beneficiaries including those over 65 years old. The authors also show the proportion of brand-name drugs prescribed by a provider in expanded states declined due to the implementation of the Medicaid expansion. These results suggests that the Medicaid expansion has contributed to increasing access to health care by low-income citizens who were in need of prescriptions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Frameworks for identifying and assessing social determinants of health (SDOH) are effective for developing long-term societal policies to promote health and well-being, but may be less applicable in clinical settings. The authors compared the relative contribution of a specific set of SDOH indicators with several measures of health status among patients served by health centers (HCs). The 2014 Health Center Patient Survey was used to identify a sample of HC patient adults 18 years and older that reported the HC as their usual source of care (n = 5024). The authors examined the relationship between SDOH indicators organized in categories (health behaviors, access and utilization, social factors, economic factors, quality of care, physical environment) with health status measures (fair or poor health, diabetes, hypertension, cardiovascular disease, depression, or anxiety) using logistic regressions and predicted probabilities. Findings indicated that access to care and utilization indicators had the greatest relative contribution to all health status measures, but the relative contribution of other SDOH indicators varied. For example, access indicators had the highest predicted probability in the model with fair or poor health as the dependent variable (72.4%) and the model with hypertension as the dependent variable (47.4%). However, the second highest predicted probability was for social indicators (54.1%) in the former model and physical environment (44.7%) indicators in the latter model. These findings have implications for HCs that serve as the primary point of access to medical care in underserved communities and to mitigate SDOH particularly for patients with diabetes, depression, or anxiety. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There are limited data on health service use and cost in low-income children with type 1 diabetes. This study examined the pattern of use and cost of health care services among low-income children diagnosed with type 1 diabetes in the state of Alabama Medicaid program. The authors performed descriptive analysis and examined factors that influence cost and health service utilization. Results showed that 5638 children with type 1 diabetes were enrolled in the Medicaid program over 7 years. Direct medical costs for patients with type 1 diabetes increased at a rate substantially higher than total Medicaid spending. White children with type 1 diabetes were found to have significantly higher Medicaid spending and service utilization than Black children with type 1 diabetes, while Hispanic children had the lowest costs. Further, older children with type 1 diabetes were found to have significantly higher Medicaid spending and service utilization than younger children with type 1 diabetes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An editorial is presented on the nation's response to the pandemic reveals a collective failure to implement a sufficient testing system and systematic COVID-19 testing was arguably the most important weapon we had to prevent avoidable deaths and the devastating economic repercussions caused by this virus. Topics include the virus was largely dedicated to Operation Warp Speed and distribution of a COVID-19 vaccine, and the news of a vaccine inspires hope for a return to pre-pandemic normalcy.

Multiple chronic conditions (MCC) reduce quality of life and are associated with high per capita health care spending. One potential way to reduce Medicare spending for MCC is to identify counties whose populations have high levels of spending compared to level of disease burden. Using a nationally representative sample of Medicare Fee-for-Service beneficiaries, this paper presents a method to measure the collective burden of several chronic conditions in a population, which the authors have termed the concentration of chronic conditions (CCC). The authors observed a significantly positive linear relationship between the CCC measure and county-level per capita Medicare spending. This area-level measure can be operationalized to identify counties that might benefit from targeted efforts designed to optimally manage and prevent chronic illness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several months into the impact of the global COVID-19 pandemic, the authors use the framework of "radical uncertainty" and specific regional health care data to understand current and future health and economic impacts. Four key areas of discussion included are: (1) How did structural health care inequality manifest itself during the closure of all elective surgeries and visits?; (2) How can we really calculate the so-called untold burden that resulted from the closure, with a special emphasis on primary care?; (3) The Pennsylvania experience – using observations from the population of one major delivery ecosystem (Jefferson Health), a major accountable care organization (Delaware Valley ACO), and statewide data from Pennsylvania; and (4) What should be the priorities and focus of the delivery system of the future given the dramatic financial and clinical disruption of COVID-19? [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this observational longitudinal study of Maryland fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries (2015–2016) was to investigate whether using data on neighborhood socioeconomic disadvantage in addition to individual clinical risk data improves identification of high-cost Medicare beneficiaries. Neighborhood socioeconomic disadvantage is measured using the Area Deprivation Index (ADI), a validated composite measure based on publically-available US census data (2011–2015) for Maryland census block groups. Hierarchical Condition Categories (HCC) score, health care utilization, and spending were obtained from Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Chronic Condition Warehouse beneficiary file and Part A and Part B claims data (2015). Total cost of care (TCOC) was calculated for 2016. Descriptive and multivariate analyses were performed to examine the relationship of residency in neighborhoods with high ADI and subsequent year health care spending. Among 615,637 Maryland Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries, those living in neighborhoods with the greatest disadvantage vs. the least disadvantage incur significantly greater costs in the subsequent year (ADI Quintile 5 $12,439 versus Quintile 1 $8920, P < .001). Clinical risk exacerbates this disparity. Among beneficiaries in the highest HCC score quintile, costs are 27% ($5458, P < .001) higher among beneficiaries in the highest compared with the lowest ADI quintiles without risk adjustment and 24% ($4599, P < .001) higher with risk adjustment. Several sensitivity analyses found the relationship between ADI and TCOC robust. Association between neighborhood socioeconomic disadvantage and health care cost is most pronounced among the most clinically complex Maryland Medicare beneficiaries. Using ADI in combination with HCC score may facilitate more precise targeting of care management resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given high costs of hospital encounters, providers have increasingly turned to patient-centered health care programs to improve cost-effectiveness and population health for patients with high needs. Yet, evidence is mixed about program effectiveness. This pre–post comparative analysis assessed whether the number of hospital encounters and related costs decreased for patients who received care coordination services funded through Texas's 1115(a) Medicaid waiver incentive-based payment model, under which providers created new programs to improve care quality, population health, and cost-effectiveness. This study compared hospital records for patients who were frequent emergency department users at 4 urban safety net hospitals in Texas and state data for hospital encounters for the calendar years 2013 through 2015. The study included 9061 patients who frequently used emergency departments: 4117 patients who received waiver-funded care coordination services at 2 hospitals and 4944 patients who received usual care at 2 comparison hospitals. Regression models compared changes in patients' hospital use and length of stay for the 2 groups. Patients receiving waiver-funded care coordination had a 19% lower probability of hospitalization after receiving care coordination relative to patients who received usual care, for a mean savings of approximately $1500 per year per patient. Receiving care coordination was not associated with a change in length of stay. Care coordination developed by hospitals to meet the needs of their most vulnerable patients can reduce their use of hospital resources through better preventive care. These findings bolster the business case for care coordination, which may help ensure service continuation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Concussion, or mild traumatic brain injury, especially among young children, teenagers, and young adults, is a significant problem in Ada County, Idaho, and the United States. Although much has been learned about concussion, considerable controversy and gaps in knowledge still exist in many areas of research, leading to variation in concussion assessment, treatment, and management protocols. Health systems can positively impact concussion outcomes through community education and outreach, and provision of timely, coordinated, evidence-based clinical care. Collectively, these measures serve to reduce concussion incidence (primary prevention), enable more timely recognition of concussion by parents, coaches, and teachers of youth athletes (secondary prevention), and improve treatment of concussion after it has occurred (tertiary prevention). Using the concussion prevention and clinical care coordination activities of St. Luke's Health System in Idaho as a benchmark, this analysis estimates the economic value of these preventive measures, in particular those preventive measures that target the pediatric population, for Ada County and the state of Idaho, and includes both year of injury and long-term costs of concussion. This study adopts a societal perspective, incorporating savings in direct medical, indirect, and quality of life costs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the health care systems and insurance plans focusing on the subset of individuals with complex chronic disease with worst outcome. Topic include the research on efficacy, or simple discussion of the risks and benefits of using this taxonomy for the impact ability; factors like mental health diagnoses, substance use disorders, housing instability, language factors affecting the patient care, and poor outcomes impacting on the health equity.

A growing literature documents the substantial burden that a small proportion of high-cost, medically complex patients impose on health care systems. However, it is not clear whether high-cost patients remain costly over time. This study looks at the monthly distribution of billed charges for a cohort of high-cost, medically complex patients enrolled in an intensive care management program in a university health care system, and finds that the billing trajectory is heterogeneous and highly nonlinear, characterized by a substantial spike in billed charges prior to identification, followed by a considerable drop prior to enrollment and a sustained drop thereafter. The conclusion is that many high-cost patients experience costly events that resolve without intensive case management. These results also suggest that interventions should target only those high-cost patients with expected continued high cost and that pre-post study designs may overstate the impact of interventions for high-cost, medically complex patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Home health agencies (HHAs) are known to exploit the Medicare reimbursement schedule by targeting a specific number of therapy visits. These targeting behaviors cause unnecessary medical spending. The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services estimates that during fiscal year 2015, Medicare made more than $10 billion in improper payments to HHAs. Better understanding of heterogeneous gaming behaviors among HHAs can inform policy makers to more effectively oversee the home health care industry. This article aims to study how home health chains adjust and adopt new targeting behaviors as compared to independent agencies under the new reimbursement schedule. The analytic data are constructed from: (1) 5% randomly sampled Medicare home health claim data, and (2) HHA chain information extracted from the Medicare Cost Report. The study period spans from 2007 to 2010, and the sample includes 7800 unique HHAs and 380,118 treatment episodes. A multivariate regression model is used to determine whether chain and independent agencies change their practice patterns and adopt different targeting strategies after the revision of the reimbursement schedule in 2008. This study finds that independent agencies are more likely to target 6 and 14 visits, while chain agencies are more likely to target 20 visits. Such a change of practice patterns is more significant among for-profit HHAs. The authors expect these findings to inform policy makers that organizational structures, especially the combination of for-profit status and chain affiliation, should be taken into the consideration when detecting medical fraud and designing the reimbursement schedule. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Medicare Advantage: Issues, Insights, and Implications for the Future Paul Cotton, Joseph P. Newhouse, PhD, Kevin G. Volpp, MD, PhD, A. Mark Fendrick, MD, Susan Lynne Oesterle, Pat Oungpasuk, Ruchi Aggarwal, Gail Wilensky, PhD, and Kathleen Sebelius S-2 D.B. Nash, and A.Y. Schwartz S-3 P. Cotton S-4 J.P. Newhouse S-5 K.G. Volpp S-6 A.M. Fendrick, S.L. Oesterle, P. Oungpasuk, and R. Aggarwal S-7 G. Wilensky and K. Sebelius [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study evaluated the financial impact of integrating a systemic care management intervention program (Community Care of North Carolina) with person-centered medical homes throughout North Carolina for non-elderly Medicaid recipients with disabilities during almost 5 years of program history. It examined Medicaid claims for 169,676 non-elderly Medicaid recipients with disabilities from January 2007 through third quarter 2011. Two models were used to estimate the program's impact on cost, within each year. The first employed a mixed model comparing member experiences in enrolled versus unenrolled months, accounting for regional differences as fixed effects and within physician group experience as random effects. The second was a pre-post, intervention/comparison group, difference-in-differences mixed model, which directly matched cohort samples of enrolled and unenrolled members on strata of preenrollment pharmacy use, race, age, year, months in pre-post periods, health status, and behavioral health history. The study team found significant cost avoidance associated with program enrollment for the non-elderly disabled population after the first years, savings that increased with length of time in the program. The impact of the program was greater in persons with multiple chronic disease conditions. By providing targeted care management interventions, aligned with person-centered medical homes, the Community Care of North Carolina program achieved significant savings for a high-risk population in the North Carolina Medicaid program. ( Population Health Management 2013;17:141-148) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Some 3 million people in the United States have atrial fibrillation (AF). Without thromboprophylaxis, AF increases overall stroke risk 5-fold. Prevention is paramount as AF-related strokes tend to be severe. Thromboprophylaxis reduces the annual incidence of stroke in AF patients by 22%-62%. However, antithrombotics are prescribed for only about half of appropriate AF patients. The study team estimates the economic implications for Medicare of fewer stroke events resulting from increased thromboprophylaxis among moderate- to high-risk AF patients. The decision model used considers both reduced stroke and increased bleeding risk from thromboprophylaxis for a hypothetical cohort on no thromboprophylaxis (45%), antiplatelets (10%), and anticoagulation (45%). AF prevalence, stroke risk, and stroke risk reduction are adjusted for age, comorbidities, and anticoagulation/antiplatelet status. Health care costs are literature based. At baseline, an estimated 24,677 ischemic strokes, 9127 hemorrhagic strokes, and 9550 bleeding events generate approximately $2.63 billion in annual event-related health care costs to Medicare for every million AF patients eligible for thromboprophylaxis. A 10% increase in anticoagulant use in the untreated population would reduce stroke events by 9%, reduce stroke fatalities by 9%, increase bleed events by 5%, and reduce annual stroke/bleed-related costs to Medicare by about $187 million (7.1%) for every million eligible AF patients. A modest 10% increase in the use of thromboprophylaxis would reduce event-related costs to Medicare by 7.1%, suggesting a compelling economic motivation to improve rates of appropriate thromboprophylaxis. New oral anticoagulants offering better balance between the risks of stroke and major bleeding events may improve these clinical and economic outcomes. ( Population Health Management 2014;17:159-165) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Medicare beneficiaries diagnosed with non-schizoaffective schizophrenia (MBS) in a 5% national Medicare fee-for-service sample from 2003-2007 were followed for 1-6 years. Medicare population and cost estimates also were made from 2001-2009. Service utilization and Medicare (and beneficiary share) payments for all services except prescription drugs were analyzed. Although adults with schizophrenia make up approximately 1% of the US adult population, they represent about 1.5% of Medicare beneficiaries. MBSs are disproportionately male and minority compared to national data describing the overall schizophrenia population. They also are younger than the general Medicare population (GMB): males are 9 years younger than females on average, and most enter Medicare long before age 65 through eligibility for social security disability, remaining in the program until death. The cost of care for MBSs in 2009 was, on average, 80% higher than for the average GMB per patient year (2010 dollars), and more than 50% of these costs are attributable to a combination of psychiatric and medical hospitalizations, concentrated in about 30% of MBSs with 1 or more hospitalizations per year. From 2004-2009, total estimated Medicare fee-for-service payments for MBSs increased from $9.4 billion to $11.5 billion, excluding Part D prescription drugs and payments for services to MBSs in Medicare for less than 1 year. Study results characterize utilization and costs for other services and suggest opportunities for further study to inform policy to improve access and continuity of care and decrease costs to the Medicare program associated with this population. ( Population Health Management 2013;17:190-196) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is widely accepted that Medicare beneficiaries with multiple comorbidities (ie, patients with combinations of more than 1 disease) account for a disproportionate amount of mortality and expenditures. The authors previously studied this phenomenon by analyzing Medicare claims data from 2008 to determine the pattern of disease combinations (DCs) for 32,220,634 beneficiaries. Their findings indicated that 22% of these individuals mapped to a long-tailed distribution of approximately 1 million DCs. The presence of so many DCs, each populated by a small number of individuals, raises the possibility that the DC distribution varies over time. Measuring this variability is important because it indicates the rate at which the health care system must adapt to the needs of new patients. This article analyzes Medicare claims data for 3 consecutive calendar years, using 2 algorithms based on the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS)-Hierarchical Conditions Categories (HCC) claims model. These algorithms make different assumptions regarding the degree to which the CMS-HCC model could be disaggregated into its underlying International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification codes. The authors find that, although a large number of beneficiaries belong to a set of DCs that are nationally stable across the 3 study years, the number of DCs in this set is large (in the range of several hundred thousand). Furthermore, the small number of beneficiaries associated with the larger number of variable DCs (ie, DCs that were not constantly populated in all 3 study years) represents a disproportionally high level of expenditures and death. ( Population Health Management 2013;16:120-124) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A population health management program was implemented to assess growth in health care expenditures for the disabled segment of Georgia's Medicaid population before and during the first year of a population health outcomes management program, and to compare those expenditures with projected costs based on various cost inflation trend assumptions. A retrospective, nonexperimental approach was used to analyze claims data from Georgia Medicaid claims files for all program-eligible persons for each relevant time period (intent-to-treat basis). These included all non-Medicare, noninstitutionalized Medicaid aged-blind-disabled adults older than 18 years of age. Comparisons of health care expenditures and utilization were made between base year (2003-2004) and performance year one (2006-2007), and of the difference between actual expenditures incurred in the performance year vs. projected expenditures based on various cost inflation assumptions. Demographic characteristics and clinical complexity of the population (as measured by the Chronic Illness and Disability Payment System risk score) actually increased from baseline to implementation. Actual expenditures were less than projected expenditures using any relevant medical inflation assumption. Actual expenditures were less than projected expenditures by $9.82 million when using a conservative US general medical inflation rate, by $43.6 million using national Medicaid cost trends, and by $106 million using Georgia Medicaid's own cost projections for the non-dually eligible disabled segment of Medicaid enrollees. Quadratic growth curve modeling also demonstrated a lower rate of increase in total expenditures. The rate of increase in expenditures was lower over the first year of program implementation compared with baseline. Weighted utilization rates were also lower in high-cost categories, such as inpatient days, despite increases in the risk profile of the population. Varying levels of cost avoidance could be inferred from differences between actual and projected expenditures using each of the health-related inflation assumptions. ( Population Health Management 2011;14:215-222) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Developing systems of care that address the mortality, morbidity, and expenditures associated with Medicare beneficiaries with multiple diseases would benefit from a greater understanding of the complexity of disease combinations (DCs) found in the Medicare population. To develop estimates of the number of DCs, we performed an observational analysis on 32,220,634 beneficiaries in the Medicare Fee-for-Service claims database based on a set of records containing each beneficiary's Part A and B International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM) claims data for the year of 2008. We made 2 simplifying adjustments. First, we mapped the individual ICD-9-CM codes to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services-Hierarchical Conditions Categories (HCC) model that was developed in 2004 to risk adjust capitation payments to private health care plans based on the health expenditure risk of their enrollees. Second, we aggregated beneficiaries with identical HCCs regardless of the temporal order of these findings within the 2008 claims year; thus the DC to which they are assigned represents the summation of their 2008 claims data. We defined 3 distinct populations at the HCC level. The first consisted of 35% of the beneficiaries who did not fall into any HCC category and accounted for 6% of expenditures. The second was represented by the 100 next most prevalent DCs that accounted for 33% of the beneficiaries and 15% of expenditures. The final population, accounting for 32% of the beneficiaries and 79% of expenses, was complex and consisted of over 2 million DCs. Our results indicate that the majority of expenditures are associated with a complex set of beneficiaries. ( Population Health Management 2011;14:161-166) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Chronic care management programs have been shown to offer a scalable approach for improving health and reducing health care costs in commercially insured populations. Medicare Health Support (MHS) was a government-sponsored program designed to determine whether that success could be translated to a Medicare fee-for-service population with complex chronic diseases. The purpose of this article is to provide an overview of MHS and its Phase I study design, and to review the officially reported outcomes of the arm of the study in which Healthways, Inc. provided program services. MHS employed a block randomized design; consent was requested after randomization and evaluation included all eligible individuals, irrespective of that consent. Healthways accepted 2 study cohorts. The first cohort included beneficiaries with diabetes and/or heart failure (Intervention, N = 19,936; Control, N = 9995) for a 3-year study period. The second cohort entered after 1 year and included beneficiaries with heart failure, with or without diabetes (Intervention, N = 4238; Control, N = 2106). Comparisons of total health care spending between the Intervention and Control groups found gross savings of $3.8 and $5.7 million for the first and second Intervention cohorts, respectively, and these savings exceeded program costs for the second cohort. Improvements in evaluated clinical measures were demonstrated in the first Intervention cohort, and overall program satisfaction was 94%. Clinical measures and satisfaction were not evaluated for the second cohort. These results indicate that Healthways successfully adapted its commercial chronic care management program for a Medicare fee-for-service population and achieved high satisfaction, improved clinical measures, and financial savings. ( Population Health Management 2011;14(suppl 1): S-3-S-10) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given the increasing prevalence of obesity and lifestyle-related chronic diseases in the United States and abroad, senior wellness initiatives have emerged as a means to stem the troubling trends that threaten the well-being and the economy of many nations. Seniors are an important demographic for such programs because this age group is growing, both as a proportion of the overall population and as a contributor to health care cost escalation. The goal of senior wellness programs is to improve the overall health of seniors through a variety of approaches, including increased physical activity, better nutrition, smoking cessation, and support of other healthy behaviors. Outcome metrics of particular interest are the effects of participation in these programs on health care utilization and expenditures. This review describes several studies that demonstrate reduced inpatient admissions and health care costs, as well as improved health-related quality of life as a direct result of participation in large-scale senior wellness programs. Programs that effectively engage seniors in, and change behavior as a direct result of, participation provide strong evidence that health improvements and decreased health care expenditures can be achieved. However, solutions to the challenges of broader enrollment and sustained participation in these programs would increase the impact of their outcomes and health-related benefits. ( Population Health Management 2011;14(suppl 1):S-45-S-50) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We highlight common problems in the application of random treatment assignment in large-scale program evaluation. Random assignment is the defining feature of modern experimental design, yet errors in design, implementation, and analysis often result in real-world applications not benefiting from its advantages. The errors discussed here cover the control of variability, levels of randomization, size of treatment arms, and power to detect causal effects, as well as the many problems that commonly lead to post-treatment bias. We illustrate these issues by identifying numerous serious errors in the Medicare Health Support evaluation and offering recommendations to improve the design and analysis of this and other large-scale randomized experiments. ( Population Health Management 2011;14(suppl 1):S-11-S-22) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this analysis is to evaluate the treatment effect of Healthways' Medicare Health Support Pilot Program on total Medicare expenditures. Previous studies have analyzed the first 6 months of the program for all Medicare Health Support Organizations. The purpose of this analysis is to supplement and extend the previous work. The policy question addressed in this article is whether, on net, the intervention lowered total Medicare expenditures. The study was a retrospective analysis of data claims and membership databases. We used ordinary least squares regression techniques to estimate the effect of the intervention on total costs. We also stratified the data using risk scores calculated prior to the intervention. Our analysis found that the intervention consistently had little or no effect across the entire sample, but was associated with a statistically significant decrease in spending when the analysis concentrated on the sample that fully participated in the program. Overall, our analysis finds that total annual Medicare costs for the participating sample were 15.7% lower in 2007 ($3240) than for the control group, controlling for age, sex, race, and baseline risk. On balance, our analysis supports a conclusion that the program did successfully reduce costs for its target population. We find that Medicare expenditures were lower among enrollees in the program than they would have been without the intervention. This article shows that significant cost reductions among high-cost, chronically ill Medicare beneficiaries are possible. ( Population Health Management 2011;14(suppl 1):S-23-S-28) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Medicare is challenged to maintain solvency as enrollment climbs because of the aging baby boomers and costs increase as a result of the substantial disease burden present among seniors. In the present study, an actuarial model was developed to determine the present cost (2008) of Medicare-covered benefits for elderly individuals, and to test the impact on cost of health risk reduction that may be possible through population health and wellness interventions. In the model, beneficiaries were categorized by risk according to health status using 3 different indices, and baseline per month and lifetime expenditures were estimated. Changes in morbidity were tested via scenarios of modified transition rates between the risk categories that might result from population health and wellness initiatives, including increases in the proportion of low-risk individuals entering Medicare, and delayed or reduced rates of upward risk transitions. The model showed that the discounted total lifetime cost of Medicare benefits was $174,018 per person, from age 65 until death. Each risk-reduction scenario was associated with both annual and lifetime cost savings, which accounted for increased longevity associated with decreased risk profiles. In conclusion, a model has been developed that can predict the impact on Medicare costs of varying levels of risk reduction in the senior population and, therefore, the potential financial benefit of population health and wellness policy initiatives directed at improving health prior to and during the years of Medicare. The model shows that there are substantial opportunities for savings through modest improvements to the health of the Medicare population. ( Population Health Management 2011;14(suppl 1):S-35-S-44) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prior authorization (PA) policies are increasingly being used to manage atypical antipsychotic (AA) Medicaid drug expenditures; however, some studies suggest that PAs may actually lead to higher rates of treatment discontinuation and hospitalization. A decision analytic model was developed to compare the cost of schizophrenia treatment from a Medicaid perspective when a PA policy for AA is in place with the cost of no PA, over a 1-year time horizon. Deterministic sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the robustness of the model results when the parameters were varied. A second analysis was performed to assess the incremental impact of PA on hospitalization. The base case model calculates the mean yearly total medical cost for a patient with schizophrenia to be $12,967 (SD $798) under the PA arm and $12,996 (SD $925) with no PA. Results of the probabilistic sensitivity analysis suggest that PA is likely to produce modest cost savings 56% of the time. Analysis of the incremental impact of hospitalization on treatment cost showed that just a 0.5% increase in hospitalization rate in the PA arm will make the PA arm more costly. This analysis suggests that PA is likely to produce only modest cost savings approximately half the time. Sensitivity analyses show that small increases in hospitalizations will make PA the more costly option. Rigorous analysis of the PA policy for AAs is required to ensure that attempts to reduce pharmacy spending do not increase the risk for negative medical outcomes that would offset benefits. ( Population Health Management. 2010;13:247-254) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this retrospective cohort study was to examine the impact of the type of health plan (capitated vs. fee for service [FFS]) on outcomes (medication adherence and health care service utilization) in type 2 diabetes Medicaid enrollees. Subjects were 8581 Medicaid enrollees with type 2 diabetes who newly started oral pharmacotherapy and were followed for 6 months before and 12 months after the index antidiabetic medication to collect data on medication adherence and health care service utilization. Multiple log-linear regression analysis was used to predict medication adherence while negative binomial regressions were used to examine health care service utilization. Medication adherence was found to be significantly lower for patients in capitated plans (5%, P < 0.05). Moreover, patients in capitated plans were associated with 14% more hospitalizations and 16% increased odds of emergency room visits, but 27% fewer outpatient visits compared to those in FFS plans (all P < 0.05). Although Medicaid programs use capitated managed care plans primarily as a cost-containment strategy, these plans may not be cost-effective for the long-term management of chronic conditions such as diabetes. ( Population Health Management 2010;13:209-218) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Successful wellness initiatives at DaimlerChrysler Canada Incorporated (DCCI) led to a unique partnership between key stakeholders that allowed implementation of Tune Up Your Heart, a program aimed at improving workforce cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. Volunteers were screened and stratified according to their CVD risk. Interventions were tailored to risk level and included goal setting, monitoring progress, and company-wide education programs. Outcome data (CVD risk and components of risk) were collected at study entry and after 18 months. The economic impact of the program was determined using a model based on subject movement across risk categories and historical claims data for life insurance, short- and long-term disability, prescription drugs, and casual absenteeism. Intervention participants (N = 343) demonstrated a significant ( P = .0113) relative CVD risk reduction of 12.7%; 36% of participants lost weight, and average body mass index decreased from 28.4 to 28.2 ( P = .0419). Average systolic and diastolic blood pressure significantly decreased ( P < .0001 and P = .0221, respectively). Subjects reported increased adherence to recommended exercise and diet regimens, and the number of smokers decreased by 14%. The majority of subjects reported satisfaction with the program. Annual savings were estimated at Can$793 for the intervention group and Can$18,461 when projected to the entire workforce (N = 13,629). Savings were sensitive to cost weighting when subjects moved to a lower risk class but more robust to other parameters. The Tune Up Your Heart program significantly improved employee CVD risk profile, and was associated with savings for DCCI. ( Population Health Management 2009;12:297–304) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article the author discusses aspects of the challenges to adopting the U.S. health care policy. The author argues that there is abundant research that demonstrates consumers will make changes that will eventually result in dividends in both quality and cost as they come to understand the benefits and alternatives of care options in their pursuit of a long and healthy life span. A discussion on how the health care system can be configured to capitalized on this insight is presented.