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The hypothesis that predation is the cause of the regular small rodent population oscillations observed in boreal and Arctic regions has long been debated. Within this hypothesis, it is proposed that the most likely predators to cause these destabilizing effects are sedentary specialists, with small mustelids being possible candidates. One such case would be the highly specialized least weasel (Mustela nivalis) driving the Norwegian lemming (Lemmus lemmus) cycle in Fennoscandia. These predators are often elusive and therefore distribution data can only be based on field signs, which is problematic when various mustelid species are sympatric, such as weasels and stoats (Mustela erminea). Here we present the results of using mustelid faeces in predated winter lemming nests to correctly identify the predator and thus discern which species exerts the strongest predation pressure on lemming winter populations. Samples were obtained during different phases in the lemming cycle, spanning 6 years, to account for different prey densities. Faecal mitochondrial DNA extraction and amplification of a 400-bp fragment was successful in 92/114 samples (81%); the sequencing of these samples proved that most predation occurrences (83%) could be attributed to the least weasel. These findings support the hypothesis that weasels in particular show high specificity in predation and could therefore be candidates to driving the lemming cycle in this area. We conclude that DNA analysis of faecal remains around predated nests can be a useful tool for further investigations concerning predator–prey interactions in the tundra.

The Arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus L.) population on the Kola Peninsula occupies an intermediate, and potentially connecting, position between foxes living on the Scandinavian Peninsula and populations further east in Russia, but very little is known about the status of this population. Here we summarize data from the literature, forgotten archival sources about research in the first half of the twentieth century, and the results of several independent expeditions undertaken over the past two decades. These materials include data on fur harvesting, incomplete monitoring data from official winter track counts of game animals, local knowledge, and our own observations. Our research revealed the extremely poor state of the Arctic fox population on the Kola Peninsula. According to our estimates, the current population is likely isolated and consists of no more than a few dozen adults. The fur return data, together with long-term data on small rodent abundance, suggest that irregular and fading out lemming cycles were a major driver of the Arctic fox population decline. The thorough research from the 1930s contrasts strongly with the lack of interest in studying and monitoring the population in recent decades, which is not even listed as a threatened species in the regional Red Data Book. In fact, the work performed here filled a more than a half-century gap in the study of the population and allowed us to determine the urgent need to resume research and immediately take active measures to protect and promote the recovery of the species in the region.

Waders that breed in the sub-Arctic are one of the groups most threatened by climate change. At the same time, wader breeding success also can vary as a function of fluctuations in the numbers of predators and rodents (an alternative prey for the predators). How climate change could influence these foodweb interactions remains poorly studied. In this study, we analysed the effects of ecological (e.g. vole/lemming and predator abundance) and environmental factors (e.g. snow cover) on the breeding success of waders in sub-Arctic Lapland. We monitored more than 500 wader nests during six breeding seasons, which spanned a full rodent cycle and one year of exceptionally late snow melt. Nest predation rate, and thus wader breeding success, did not vary as a function of predator or rodent abundance. However, predation rate was exceptionally high in the year with a late snow melt. More variability in climate is expected for the future, where more precipitation and cold spring temperatures resulting in late snow melt will be more frequent, influencing the rodent and predator numbers, and therefore wader breeding success in the sub-Arctic. Snow would limit the number of open areas for nesting and hence predators would then be able to find these nests more easily. Additionally, predators might concentrate their efforts on alternative prey if snow has reduced their capacity to find other food sources. And, ultimately, changes in the rodent fluctuations could affect the final outcome of predators.

Understanding ecological relationships between humans and marine predators is crucial for the implementation of sustainable management practices. Comprehensive estimation of pinniped diet is essential for assessing interaction with fisheries and often has an important conservational value. Due to uncertainty regarding the accuracy of methods traditionally used to estimate harbour seal (Phoca vitulina) diet it is necessary to improve analysis methods. We investigated the diet of harbour seals hauling out in an estuary area in north-western Iceland between May and August of 2010 and 2011 by genetic (molecular) analysis of prey in faeces using DNA metabarcoding. The results were compared to previously published results from morphological analysis. Our results showed that species consumed were mainly sandeels (Ammodytes sp.), flatfishes (Pleuronectidae), gadoids (Gadidae), herring (Clupea harengus) and capelin (Mallotus villosus). The results from molecular and morphological analyses were similar in regards to important prey species, but species diversity was lower in the morphological analysis and 38% of the samples included prey items that were unidentifiable in the morphological analysis. Notably, despite Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar), brown trout (Salmo trutta) and Arctic char (Salvelinus alpinus) availability in the study area, neither of the methods found evidence of salmonids in the harbour seal diet. Recently, a severe decline has been observed in the Icelandic harbour seal population. Since the main reason for culling harbour seals in Iceland is to reduce predation on salmonids, findings presented in this paper have essential conservation implications and suggest that culling needs to be reassessed.

Mating patterns are highly context-dependent and the outcome of selection pressures formed by ecological factors, inbreeding levels and access to available partners. In small and inbred populations, matings are limited by high kin encounter rates and access to mates. In this paper, we use background pedigree data to investigate mating patterns and inbreeding avoidance in an isolated and critically endangered Arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus) population. Empirical data showed avoidance of matings within natal family. Based on 35 documented matings, we only recorded two full-sibling matings and these occurred between individuals from different natal families. Matings between second-order relatives, however, occurred to the same extent as between unrelated individuals. To test how this influenced the population development of inbreeding (f), we simulated scenarios of random mating, exclusion of natal family and exclusion of individuals in already existing pair bonds. The observed development of inbreeding did not correspond the expected scenario of random mating (linear regression, r2 = 0.354, P = 0.20), but showed a comparable outcome as the simulated development of discriminating natal family (linear regression, r2 = 0.980, P

The Swedish Polar Research Secretariat and National Science Foundation as part of the research program SWEDARCTIC 2016 to the project ‘Arctic Islands’ (2013-7812-106995-50). Further financial support was received from the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness, the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, the Canada Research Chair Program, the Canadian Foundation for Innovation, Northern and Arboriginal Affairs, Centre d’Etudes Nordiques, and the Swedish Research Council.

Food availability can impact group formation in Carnivora. Specifically, it has been suggested that temporal variation in food availability may allow a breeding pair to tolerate additional adults in their territory at times when food abundance is high. We investigate group occurrence and intraspecific tolerance during breeding in a socially flexible canid, the arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus). We compare Iceland and Sweden where resource conditions differ considerably. A breeding pair was the most common social unit in both populations, but as predicted, groups were more frequent where food abundance varied substantially between years (Sweden: 6 %) than where food availability was stable (Iceland: ≤2 %). Within Sweden, supplemental feeding increased group occurrence from 6 to 21 %, but there was no effect of natural variation in lemming (Lemmus lemmus) availability since group formation was rare also at lemming highs. Thus, additional factors appeared to influence the trade-off between intraspecific territoriality and tolerance. We report two cases where related females showed enduring social relationships with good-neighbour strategies. Related females also engaged in alloparental behaviour in a ‘fox town’ with 31 foxes (4 adults, 3 litters). In contrast, when unrelated foxes bred close to each other, they moved or split their litters during summer, presumably because of territorial conflict. We suggest that fluctuating food availability is linked to group formation in this Arctic carnivore, but also when food availability increases, additional factors such as relatedness, alloparental benefits, competition and predator defence appear necessary to explain group formation.