1. Estimating global, regional and national rotavirus deaths in children aged <5 years: Current approaches, new analyses and proposed improvements
- Author
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Clark, Andrew, Black, Robert, Tate, Jacqueline, Roose, Anna, Kotloff, Karen, Lam, Diana, Blackwelder, William, Parashar, Umesh, Lanata, Claudio, Kang, Gagandeep, Troeger, Christopher, Platts-Mills, James, Mokdad, Ali, Sanderson, Colin, Lamberti, Laura, Levine, Myron, Santosham, Mathuram, and Steele, Duncan
- Subjects
Diarrhea ,RNA viruses ,Rotavirus ,Viral Diseases ,Asia ,Patients ,Surgical and Invasive Medical Procedures ,Gastroenterology and Hepatology ,Pathology and Laboratory Medicine ,Global Health ,Microbiology ,Rotavirus Infections ,Geographical Locations ,Signs and Symptoms ,Diagnostic Medicine ,Reoviruses ,Medicine and Health Sciences ,Humans ,Public and Occupational Health ,Microbial Pathogens ,Rotavirus Infection ,Inpatients ,Biology and life sciences ,Organisms ,Age Factors ,Infant, Newborn ,Rotavirus Vaccines ,Infant ,Hospitals ,Health Care ,Hospitalization ,Infectious Diseases ,Medical Microbiology ,Health Care Facilities ,Viral Pathogens ,Child, Preschool ,Population Surveillance ,Viruses ,People and Places ,Autopsy ,Pathogens ,Research Article - Abstract
Background Rotavirus is a leading cause of diarrhoeal mortality in children but there is considerable disagreement about how many deaths occur each year. Methods and findings We compared CHERG, GBD and WHO/CDC estimates of age under 5 years (U5) rotavirus deaths at the global, regional and national level using a standard year (2013) and standard list of 186 countries. The global estimates were 157,398 (CHERG), 122,322 (GBD) and 215,757 (WHO/CDC). The three groups used different methods: (i) to select data points for rotavirus-positive proportions; (ii) to extrapolate data points to individual countries; (iii) to account for rotavirus vaccine coverage; (iv) to convert rotavirus-positive proportions to rotavirus attributable fractions; and (v) to calculate uncertainty ranges. We conducted new analyses to inform future estimates. We found that acute watery diarrhoea was associated with 87% (95% CI 83–90%) of U5 diarrhoea hospitalisations based on data from 84 hospital sites in 9 countries, and 65% (95% CI 57–74%) of U5 diarrhoea deaths based on verbal autopsy reports from 9 country sites. We reanalysed data from the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS) and found 44% (55% in Asia, and 32% in Africa) rotavirus-positivity among U5 acute watery diarrhoea hospitalisations, and 28% rotavirus-positivity among U5 acute watery diarrhoea deaths. 97% (95% CI 95–98%) of the U5 diarrhoea hospitalisations that tested positive for rotavirus were entirely attributable to rotavirus. For all clinical syndromes combined the rotavirus attributable fraction was 34% (95% CI 31–36%). This increased by a factor of 1.08 (95% CI 1.02–1.14) when the GEMS results were reanalysed using a more sensitive molecular test. Conclusions We developed consensus on seven proposals for improving the quality and transparency of future rotavirus mortality estimates.
- Published
- 2017