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The development of simple, noninvasive markers of liver fibrosis is urgently needed for primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC). This study examined the ability of several serum biomarkers of cell death to estimate fibrosis and prognosis in PBC. A cohort of 130 patients with biopsy-proven PBC and 90 healthy subjects were enrolled. We assessed the utility of the M30 ELISA, which detects caspase-cleaved cytokeratin-18 (CK-18) fragments and is representative of apoptotic cell death, as well as the M65 and newly developed M65 Epideath (M65ED) ELISAs, which detect total CK-18 as indicators of overall cell death, in predicting clinically relevant fibrosis stage. All 3 cell death biomarkers were significantly higher in patients with PBC than in healthy controls and were significantly correlated with fibrosis stage. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the M65 and M65ED assays for differentiation among significant fibrosis, severe fibrosis, and cirrhosis were 0.66 and 0.76, 0.66 and 0.73, and 0.74 and 0.82, respectively. In multivariate analysis, high M65ED (hazard ratio 6.13; 95% confidence interval 1.18-31.69; P = 0.031) and severe fibrosis (hazard ratio 7.45; 95% confidence interval 1.82-30.51; P = 0.005) were independently associated with liver-related death, transplantation, or decompensation. High serum M65ED was also significantly associated with poor outcome in PBC (log-rank test; P = 0.001). Noninvasive cell death biomarkers appear to be clinically useful in predicting fibrosis in PBC. Moreover, the M65ED assay may represent a new surrogate marker of adverse disease outcome.

Natural killer cell responses play a crucial role in virus clearance by the innate immune system. Although the killer immunoglobulin-like receptor (KIR) in combination with its cognate human leukocyte antigen (HLA) ligand, especially KIR2DL3-HLA-C1, is associated with both treatment-induced and spontaneous clearance of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in Caucasians, these innate immunity genes have not been fully clarified in Japanese patients. We therefore investigated 16 KIR genotypes along with HLA-B and -C ligands and a genetic variant of interleukin (IL) 28B (rs8099917) in 115 chronic hepatitis C genotype 1 patients who underwent pegylated-interferon-α2b (PEG-IFN) and ribavirin therapy. HLA-Bw4 was significantly associated with a sustained virological response (SVR) to treatment (P = 0.017; odds ratio [OR] = 2.50, ), as was the centromeric A/A haplotype of KIR (P = 0.015; OR 3.37). In contrast, SVR rates were significantly decreased in patients with KIR2DL2 or KIR2DS2 (P = 0.015; OR = 0.30, and P = 0.025; OR = 0.32, respectively). Multivariate logistic regression analysis subsequently identified the IL28B TT genotype (P = 0.00009; OR = 6.87, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.62 - 18.01), KIR2DL2/HLA-C1 (P = 0.014; OR = 0.24, 95% CI = 0.08 - 0.75), KIR3DL1/HLA-Bw4 (P = 0.008, OR = 3.32, 95% CI = 1.37 - 8.05), and white blood cell count at baseline (P = 0.009; OR = 3.32, 95% CI = 1.35 - 8.16) as independent predictive factors of an SVR. We observed a significant association between the combination of IL28B TT genotype and KIR3DL1-HLA-Bw4 in responders (P = 0.0019), whereas IL28B TT along with KIR2DL2-HLA-C1 was related to a non-response (P = 0.0067). In conclusion, combinations of KIR3DL1/HLA-Bw4, KIR2DL2/HLA-C1, and a genetic variant of the IL28B gene are predictive of the response to PEG-IFN and ribavirin therapy in Japanese patients infected with genotype 1b HCV.