1. Development and validation of a prediction model for adenoma detection during screening and surveillance colonoscopy with comparison to actual adenoma detection rates
- Author
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Peter D. Siersema, Colleen S. Thomas, Julia E. Crook, Douglas K. Rex, Eelco C. Brand, and Michael B. Wallace
- Subjects
Male ,Pathology ,Medical Doctors ,Cross-sectional study ,Physiology ,Health Care Providers ,Colonoscopy ,lcsh:Medicine ,Logistic regression ,Body Mass Index ,Cohort Studies ,Tumours of the digestive tract Radboud Institute for Health Sciences [Radboudumc 14] ,0302 clinical medicine ,Mathematical and Statistical Techniques ,Medicine and Health Sciences ,Ethnicities ,030212 general & internal medicine ,Medical Personnel ,lcsh:Science ,Hispanic People ,Multidisciplinary ,medicine.diagnostic_test ,Middle Aged ,Adenomas ,Professions ,Oncology ,Physiological Parameters ,Cohort ,Physical Sciences ,030211 gastroenterology & hepatology ,Female ,Colorectal Neoplasms ,Statistics (Mathematics) ,Cohort study ,Research Article ,Adenoma ,medicine.medical_specialty ,Surgical and Invasive Medical Procedures ,Research and Analysis Methods ,03 medical and health sciences ,Digestive System Procedures ,Internal medicine ,Physicians ,medicine ,Humans ,Statistical Methods ,Aged ,Colorectal Cancer ,business.industry ,lcsh:R ,Body Weight ,Cancers and Neoplasms ,Biology and Life Sciences ,Odds ratio ,Models, Theoretical ,medicine.disease ,Health Care ,Cross-Sectional Studies ,People and Places ,lcsh:Q ,Population Groupings ,business ,Body mass index ,Mathematics ,Forecasting - Abstract
Contains fulltext : 177124.pdf (Publisher’s version ) (Open Access) OBJECTIVE: The adenoma detection rate (ADR) varies widely between physicians, possibly due to patient population differences, hampering direct ADR comparison. We developed and validated a prediction model for adenoma detection in an effort to determine if physicians' ADRs should be adjusted for patient-related factors. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Screening and surveillance colonoscopy data from the cross-sectional multicenter cluster-randomized Endoscopic Quality Improvement Program-3 (EQUIP-3) study (NCT02325635) was used. The dataset was split into two cohorts based on center. A prediction model for detection of >/=1 adenoma was developed using multivariable logistic regression and subsequently internally (bootstrap resampling) and geographically validated. We compared predicted to observed ADRs. RESULTS: The derivation (5 centers, 35 physicians, overall-ADR: 36%) and validation (4 centers, 31 physicians, overall-ADR: 40%) cohort included respectively 9934 and 10034 patients (both cohorts: 48% male, median age 60 years). Independent predictors for detection of >/=1 adenoma were: age (optimism-corrected odds ratio (OR): 1.02; 95%-confidence interval (CI): 1.02-1.03), male sex (OR: 1.73; 95%-CI: 1.60-1.88), body mass index (OR: 1.02; 95%-CI: 1.01-1.03), American Society of Anesthesiology physical status class (OR class II vs. I: 1.29; 95%-CI: 1.17-1.43, OR class >/=III vs. I: 1.57; 95%-CI: 1.32-1.86), surveillance versus screening (OR: 1.39; 95%-CI: 1.27-1.53), and Hispanic or Latino ethnicity (OR: 1.13; 95%-CI: 1.00-1.27). The model's discriminative ability was modest (C-statistic in the derivation: 0.63 and validation cohort: 0.60). The observed ADR was considerably lower than predicted for 12/66 (18.2%) physicians and 2/9 (22.2%) centers, and considerably higher than predicted for 18/66 (27.3%) physicians and 4/9 (44.4%) centers. CONCLUSION: The substantial variation in ADRs could only partially be explained by patient-related factors. These data suggest that ADR variation could likely also be due to other factors, e.g. physician or technical issues.
- Published
- 2017