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Paratuberculosis, also known as Johne's disease (JD), is a chronic contagious disease, caused by Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP). The disease is incurable, fatal and causes economic losses estimated to exceed 200 million dollars to the U.S. dairy industry annually. Several preventive and control measures have been recommended; however, only a few of these measures have been validated empirically. Using a nested compartmental (NC) modeling approach, the main objective of this research was to identify the best combination of control and preventive measures that minimizes the prevalence and incidence of JD and the risk of MAP occurrence in a dairy herd. The NC model employs both MAP transmission estimates and data on pen movement of cattle on a dairy to quantify the effectiveness of control and preventive measures. To obtain reasonable ranges of parameter values for between-pen movements, the NC model was fitted to the movement data of four typical California dairy farms. Using the estimated ranges of the movement parameters and those of JD from previous research, the basic reproduction number was calculated to measure the risk of MAP occurrence in each pen environment as well as the entire dairy. Although the interventions evaluated by the NC model were shown to reduce the infection, no single measure alone was capable of eradicating the infection. The numerical simulations suggest that a combination of test and cull with more frequent manure removal is the most effective method in reducing incidence, prevalence and the risk of MAP occurrence. Other control measures such as limiting calf-adult cow contacts, raising calves in a disease-free herd or colostrum management were less effective., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Johne's disease is an infectious chronic inflammatory bowel disease in ruminants. The key factor for the management of this disease is an early positive diagnosis. Unfortunately, most diagnostics detect animals with Johne's disease in the clinical stage with positive serology and/or positive fecal cultures. However, for effective management of the disease within herds, it is important to detect infected animals as early as possible. This might only be possible with the help of parameters not specific for Johne's disease but that give an early indication for chronic infections such as weight development. Here we report our findings on the development of total body weight and weight gain during the first six months of goats experimentally infected to induce Johne's disease. Twenty dairy goat kids age 2 to 5 days were included in this study. Goats were divided into two groups: a negative control group and a positive infected group. The weight was obtained weekly throughout the study. Goats of the positive group were infected at the age of seven weeks. We detected significant changes in weight gain and total body weight as early as one week after infection. Differences are significant throughout the six month time period. Weight as a non-specific parameter should be used to monitor infection especially in studies on Johne's disease using the goat model. Our study suggests that goats with Johne's disease have a reduced weight gain and reduced weight when compared with healthy goats of the same age.

Johne's disease (JD) is a chronic, enteric disease in ruminants caused by Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP). Disease progression follows four distinct stages: silent, subclinical, clinical and advanced. Available diagnostic tests have poor sensitivity and cannot detect early stages of the infection; as a result, only animals in the clinical and advanced stages, which represent the tip of the 'iceberg', are identified through testing. The Iceberg Phenomenon is then applied to provide estimates for JD prevalence. For one animal in the advanced stage, it is assumed that there are one to two in the clinical stage, four to eight in the subclinical stage, and ten to fourteen in the silent stage. These ratios, however, are based on little evidence. To evaluate the ratios, we developed a deterministic ordinary differential equation model of JD transmission and disease progression dynamics. When duration periods associated with the natural course of the disease progression are used, the above ratios do not hold. The ratios used to estimate JD prevalence need to be further investigated.