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As replications of individual studies are resource intensive, techniques for predicting the replicability are required. We introduce the repliCATS (Collaborative Assessments for Trustworthy Science) process, a new method for eliciting expert predictions about the replicability of research. This process is a structured expert elicitation approach based on a modified Delphi technique applied to the evaluation of research claims in social and behavioural sciences. The utility of processes to predict replicability is their capacity to test scientific claims without the costs of full replication. Experimental data supports the validity of this process, with a validation study producing a classification accuracy of 84% and an Area Under the Curve of 0.94, meeting or exceeding the accuracy of other techniques used to predict replicability. The repliCATS process provides other benefits. It is highly scalable, able to be deployed for both rapid assessment of small numbers of claims, and assessment of high volumes of claims over an extended period through an online elicitation platform, having been used to assess 3000 research claims over an 18 month period. It is available to be implemented in a range of ways and we describe one such implementation. An important advantage of the repliCATS process is that it collects qualitative data that has the potential to provide insight in understanding the limits of generalizability of scientific claims. The primary limitation of the repliCATS process is its reliance on human-derived predictions with consequent costs in terms of participant fatigue although careful design can minimise these costs. The repliCATS process has potential applications in alternative peer review and in the allocation of effort for replication studies.

ObjectivesCompare three host response strategies to distinguish bacterial and viral etiologies of acute respiratory illness (ARI).MethodsIn this observational cohort study, procalcitonin, a 3-protein panel (CRP, IP-10, TRAIL), and a host gene expression mRNA panel were measured in 286 subjects with ARI from four emergency departments. Multinomial logistic regression and leave-one-out cross validation were used to evaluate the protein and mRNA tests.ResultsThe mRNA panel performed better than alternative strategies to identify bacterial infection: AUC 0.93 vs. 0.83 for the protein panel and 0.84 for procalcitonin (PConclusionsA gene expression signature was the most accurate host response strategy for classifying subjects with bacterial, viral, or non-infectious ARI.

Human cancers over-expressing mdm2, through a T to G variation at a single nucleotide polymorphism at position 309 (mdm2 SNP309), have functionally inactivated p53 that is not effectively degraded. They also have high expression of the alternatively spliced transcript, mdm2-C. Alternatively spliced mdm2 transcripts are expressed in many forms of human cancer and when they are exogenously expressed they transform human cells. However no study to date has detected endogenous MDM2 protein isoforms. Studies with exogenous expression of splice variants have been carried out with mdm2-A and mdm2-B, but the mdm2-C isoform has remained virtually unexplored. We addressed the cellular influence of exogenously expressed MDM2-C, and asked if endogenous MDM2-C protein was present in human cancers. To detect endogenous MDM2-C protein, we created a human MDM2-C antibody to the splice junction epitope of exons four and ten (MDM2 C410) and validated the antibody with in vitro translated full length MDM2 compared to MDM2-C. Interestingly, we discovered that MDM2-C co-migrates with MDM2-FL at approximately 98 kDa. Using the validated C410 antibody, we detected high expression of endogenous MDM2-C in human cancer cell lines and human cancer tissues. In the estrogen receptor positive (ER+) mdm2 G/G SNP309 breast cancer cell line, T47D, we observed an increase in endogenous MDM2-C protein with estrogen treatment. MDM2-C localized to the nucleus and the cytoplasm. We examined the biological activity of MDM2-C by exogenously expressing the protein and observed that MDM2-C did not efficiently target p53 for degradation or reduce p53 transcriptional activity. Exogenous expression of MDM2-C in p53-null human cancer cells increased colony formation, indicating p53-independent tumorigenic properties. Our data indicate a role for MDM2-C that does not require the inhibition of p53 for increasing cancer cell proliferation and survival.