Search

Several commercially and ecologically important species in the southern Benguela have undergone southward and eastward shifts in their distributions over previous decades, most notably the small pelagic fish sardine Sardinops sagax and anchovy Engraulis encrasicolus . Understanding these changes and their implications is essential in implementing an ecosystem approach to fisheries in the southern Benguela and attempting to appreciate the potential impacts of future environmental change. To investigate possible impacts of these shifts at an ecosystem level, distribution maps for before (1985-1991), during (1997-2000) and after (2003-2008) the shift in small pelagic fish were constructed for 14 key species from catch and survey data, and used to calculate spatial indicators including proportion east and west of Cape Agulhas, relative overlap in biomass and area, index of diversity, connectivity. Potential interactions on the south and west coasts were also compared. For several species (redeye; chub mackerel; kingklip; chokka squid; yellowtail), previously unidentified increases in the proportion of biomass east of Cape Agulhas were shown to have occurred over the same period as that of small pelagic fish, although none to the same degree. On average, overlap with small pelagic fish increased over time and overall system connectivity was lowest in the intermediate period, possibly indicating a system under transition. Connectivity declined over time on the west coast while increasing on the east coast. Distributions of other species have changed over time, with the region east of Cape Agulhas becoming increasingly important in terms of potential trophic interaction. Variations in distribution of biomass and structural complexity affect the trophic structure and hence functioning of the system, and implications should be considered when attempting to identify the possible ecosystem impacts of current and future system-level change.

The effects of climate and fishing on marine ecosystems have usually been studied separately, but their interactions make ecosystem dynamics difficult to understand and predict. Of particular interest to management, the potential synergism or antagonism between fishing pressure and climate forcing is analysed in this paper, using an end-to-end ecosystem model of the southern Benguela ecosystem, built from coupling hydrodynamic, biogeochemical and multispecies fish models (ROMS-N 2 P 2 Z 2 D 2 -OSMOSE). Scenarios of different intensities of upwelling-favourable wind stress combined with scenarios of fishing top-predator fish were tested. Analyses of isolated drivers show that the bottom-up effect of the climate forcing propagates up the food chain whereas the top-down effect of fishing cascades down to zooplankton in unfavourable environmental conditions but dampens before it reaches phytoplankton. When considering both climate and fishing drivers together, it appears that top-down control dominates the link between top-predator fish and forage fish, whereas interactions between the lower trophic levels are dominated by bottom-up control. The forage fish functional group appears to be a central component of this ecosystem, being the meeting point of two opposite trophic controls. The set of combined scenarios shows that fishing pressure and upwelling-favourable wind stress have mostly dampened effects on fish populations, compared to predictions from the separate effects of the stressors. Dampened effects result in biomass accumulation at the top predator fish level but a depletion of biomass at the forage fish level. This should draw our attention to the evolution of this functional group, which appears as both structurally important in the trophic functioning of the ecosystem, and very sensitive to climate and fishing pressures. In particular, diagnoses considering fishing pressure only might be more optimistic than those that consider combined effects of fishing and environmental variability.

Pelagic ecosystems support a significant and vital component of the ocean's productivity and biodiversity. They are also heavily exploited and, as a result, are the focus of numerous spatial planning initiatives. Over the past decade, there has been increasing enthusiasm for protected areas as a tool for pelagic conservation, however, few have been implemented. Here we demonstrate an approach to plan protected areas that address the physical and biological dynamics typical of the pelagic realm. Specifically, we provide an example of an approach to planning protected areas that integrates pelagic and benthic conservation in the southern Benguela and Agulhas Bank ecosystems off South Africa. Our aim was to represent species of importance to fisheries and species of conservation concern within protected areas. In addition to representation, we ensured that protected areas were designed to consider pelagic dynamics, characterized from time-series data on key oceanographic processes, together with data on the abundance of small pelagic fishes. We found that, to have the highest likelihood of reaching conservation targets, protected area selection should be based on time-specific data rather than data averaged across time. More generally, we argue that innovative methods are needed to conserve ephemeral and dynamic pelagic biodiversity.

Shark attacks on humans are high profile events which can significantly influence policies related to the coastal zone. A shark warning system in South Africa, Shark Spotters, recorded 378 white shark (Carcharodon carcharias) sightings at two popular beaches, Fish Hoek and Muizenberg, during 3690 six-hour long spotting shifts, during the months September to May 2006 to 2011. The probabilities of shark sightings were related to environmental variables using Binomial Generalized Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs). Sea surface temperature was significant, with the probability of shark sightings increasing rapidly as SST exceeded 14 °C and approached a maximum at 18 °C, whereafter it remains high. An 8 times (Muizenberg) and 5 times (Fish Hoek) greater likelihood of sighting a shark was predicted at 18 °C than at 14 °C. Lunar phase was also significant with a prediction of 1.5 times (Muizenberg) and 4 times (Fish Hoek) greater likelihood of a shark sighting at new moon than at full moon. At Fish Hoek, the probability of sighting a shark was 1.6 times higher during the afternoon shift compared to the morning shift, but no diel effect was found at Muizenberg. A significant increase in the number of shark sightings was identified over the last three years, highlighting the need for ongoing research into shark attack mitigation. These patterns will be incorporated into shark awareness and bather safety campaigns in Cape Town.