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The true spatiotemporal structure of a fish population is often more complex than represented in assessments because movement between spawning components is disregarded and data at the necessary scale are unavailable. This can generate poor advice. We explore the impacts of modelling choices and their associated risks given limited data and lack of biological knowledge on spawning component structure and connectivity. Pseudo-data for an age structured fish population were simulated with two spawning components that experience various levels of connectivity and that might overlap during a certain period but segregate during reproduction. A variety of implicit spatiotemporal and simpler models were fitted to the pseudo-datasets, mimicking different situations of data availability. To reproduce the true stock characteristics, the spatiotemporal models required total catch data disaggregated by spawning component; however, catch-at-age was not as important nor were disaggregated biomass indices to reproduce true dynamics. Even with just 5% connectivity between spawning components, both the spatiotemporal models and simpler alternatives generally overestimated stock biomass. Although bias was smallest when considering one unit population, spawning components might still need to be considered for management and conservation. In such case, the spatiotemporal model was less influenced by ignored connectivity patterns compared to a model focussing on one spawning component only. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forage fishes play an important role in marine ecosystems by transferring energy and nutrients through the food web. The population dynamics of forage species can therefore have cascading effects across multiple trophic levels. Here, we analyzed a 19-year dataset on Pinfish (Lagodon rhomboides) across four eastern Gulf of Mexico estuaries to investigate population dynamics, inter- and intra-annual synchrony, metapopulation portfolio effects, growth, and habitat effects. Young-of-year growth rates did not differ among estuaries. The population dynamics of these four systems were stable in the long-term, but highly dynamic inter-annually. Intra-annual dynamics were stable and predictable despite variation in long-term means. Some estuaries exhibited positive inter-annual synchrony, and all four estuaries were synchronous intra-annually. There was evidence for stronger portfolio effects for the entire four-estuary metapopulation, as well as for the two northern estuaries while the southern estuaries appeared to act as a single population. Submerged aquatic vegetation was by far the most important predictor for both presence and abundance of Pinfish. It is important to understand the factors driving forage fish population fluctuations to better predict ecosystem effects, including those to species of economic and ecological importance. These predictors can be useful for the implementation of ecosystem-based management decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We introduce a minimal agent-based model to understand the effects of the interplay between dispersal and geometric constraints in metapopulation dynamics under the Allee Effect. The model, which does not impose nonlinear birth and death rates, is studied both analytically and numerically. Our results indicate the existence of a survival-extinction boundary with monotonic behavior for weak spatial constraints and a nonmonotonic behavior for strong spatial constraints so that there is an optimal dispersal that maximizes the survival probability. Such optimal dispersal has empirical support from recent experiments with engineered bacteria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Japan experienced a nationwide rubella epidemic from 2012 to 2013, mostly in urban prefectures with large population sizes. The present study aimed to capture the spatiotemporal patterns of rubella using a parsimonious metapopulation epidemic model and examine the potential usefulness of spatial vaccination. Methodology/Principal findings: A metapopulation epidemic model in discrete time and space was devised and applied to rubella notification data from 2012 to 2013. Employing a piecewise constant model for the linear growth rate in six different time periods, and using the particle Markov chain Monte Carlo method, the effective reproduction numbers were estimated at 1.37 (95% CrI: 1.12, 1.77) and 1.37 (95% CrI: 1.24, 1.48) in Tokyo and Osaka groups, respectively, during the growing phase of the epidemic in 2013. The rubella epidemic in 2012 involved substantial uncertainties in its parameter estimates and forecasts. We examined multiple scenarios of spatial vaccination with coverages of 1%, 3% and 5% for all of Japan to be distributed in different combinations of prefectures. Scenarios indicated that vaccinating the top six populous urban prefectures (i.e., Tokyo, Kanagawa, Osaka, Aichi, Saitama and Chiba) could potentially be more effective than random allocation. However, greater uncertainty was introduced by stochasticity and initial conditions such as the number of infectious individuals and the fraction of susceptibles. Conclusions: While the forecast in 2012 was accompanied by broad uncertainties, a narrower uncertainty bound of parameters and reliable forecast were achieved during the greater rubella epidemic in 2013. By better capturing the underlying epidemic dynamics, spatial vaccination could substantially outperform the random vaccination. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Determining what factors affect species occurrence is vital to the study of primate biogeography. We investigated the metapopulation dynamics of a lemur community consisting of eight species (Avahi occidentalis, Propithecus coquereli, Microcebus murinus, Microcebus ravelobensis, Lepilemur edwardsi, Cheirogaleus medius, Eulemur mongoz, and Eulemur fulvus) within fragmented tropical dry deciduous forest habitat in Ankarafantsika National Park, Madagascar. We measured fragment size and isolation of 42 fragments of forest ranging in size from 0.23 to 117.7 ha adjacent to continuous forest. Between June and November 2011, we conducted 1218 surveys and observed six of eight lemur species (M. murinus, M. ravelobensis, C. medius, E. fulvus, P. coquereli, and L. edwardsi) in the 42 fragments. We applied among patch incidence function models (IFMs) with various measures of dispersal and a mainland-island IFM to lemur species occurrence, with the aim of answering the following questions: 1) Do lemur species in dry deciduous forest fragments form metapopulations? 2) What are the separate effects of area (extinction risk) and connectivity/isolation (colonization potential) within a lemur metapopulation? 3) Within simulated metapopulations over time, how do area and connectivity/isolation affect occurrence? and 4) What are the conservation implications of our findings? We found that M. murinus formed either a mainland-island or an among patch metapopulation, M. ravelobensis formed a mainland-island metapopulation, C. medius and E. fulvus formed among patch metapopulations, and neither P. coquereli or L. edwardsi formed a metapopulation. Metapopulation dynamics and simulations suggest that area was a more consistent positive factor determining lemur species occurrence than fragment isolation and is crucial to the maintenance of lemur populations within this fragmented landscape. Using a metapopulation approach to lemur biogeography is critical for understanding how lemur species respond to forest loss and fragmentation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most coral-associated decapod species have non-migratory adult populations and depend on their planktonic larvae for dispersal. This study examined the metapopulation structure of three decapod species with different pelagic larval duration (PLD) from twelve coral reef complexes of the Gulf of Mexico. The dispersion of larvae was analyzed through the use of a realistic numerical simulation of the Gulf of Mexico with the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model. To study the transport and dispersion of particles in near-surface waters, a particle-tracking subroutine was run using as input the currents from the model. The simulation consisted of the launch of 100 passive particles (virtual larvae) every 24 hours from each reef throughout five years, and tracked for as long as 210 days. Results indicated that species with a short PLD, Mithraculus sculptus (PLD 8‒13 days), had a weak connection among the reefs, but higher self-recruitment, especially on the narrow western shelf. The species with a longer PLD, Dromia erythropus (28‒30 days), had a stronger connection among neighboring reefs (< 300 km). Finally, the species with an even longer PLD, Stenopus hispidus (123‒210 days), had a wider potential distribution than the other species. Circulation on synoptic, seasonal and interannual scales had differential effects on the larval dispersal of each species. The metapopulation structure of M. sculptus and D. erythropus seemed to combine features of the non-equilibrium and the patchy models, whereas that of S. hispidus presumably fit to a patchy model. These findings support previous observations that indicate that species with longer PLD tend to occupy larger areas than species with short PLD, although recruitment of juveniles to the adult populations will also depend on other factors, such as the availability of suitable habitats and the ability to colonize them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How the spatial expansion of a species changes at a human time scale is a process difficult to determine. We studied the dispersal pattern of the French white stork population, using a 21-year ringing/resighting dataset. We used the graph-theory to investigate the strength of links between 5 populations (North-East, North-West, Centre, West, and South) and to determine factors important for the birds’ movements. Two clusters of populations were identified within the metapopulation, with most frequent movements of individuals between North-Eastern and Centre populations, and between North-Western and Western populations. Exchanges of individuals between populations were asymmetrical, where North-Eastern and North-Western populations provided more emigrants than they received immigrants. Neither the geographical distance between populations, nor the difference in densities influenced the number of individuals exchanging between populations. The graph-theory approach provides a dynamic view of individual movements within a metapopulation and might be useful for future population studies in the context of conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biological invasions are not only a major threat to biodiversity, they also have major impacts on local economies and agricultural production systems. Once established, the connection of local populations into metapopulation networks facilitates dispersal at landscape scales, generating spatial dynamics that can impact the outcome of pest-management actions. Much planning goes into landscape-scale invasive species management. However, effective management requires knowledge on the interplay between metapopulation network topology and management actions. We address this knowledge gap using simulation models to explore the effectiveness of two common management strategies, applied across different extents and according to different rules for selecting target localities in metapopulations with different network topologies. These management actions are: (i) general population reduction, and (ii) reduction of an obligate resource. The reduction of an obligate resource was generally more efficient than population reduction for depleting populations at landscape scales. However, the way in which local populations are selected for management is important when the topology of the metapopulation is heterogeneous in terms of the distribution of connections among local populations. We tested these broad findings using real-world scenarios of European rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) infesting agricultural landscapes in Western Australia. Although management strategies targeting central populations were more effective in simulated heterogeneous metapopulation structures, no difference was observed in real-world metapopulation structures that are highly homogeneous. In large metapopulations with high proximity and connectivity of neighbouring populations, different spatial management strategies yield similar outcomes. Directly considering spatial attributes in pest-management actions will be most important for metapopulation networks with heterogeneously distributed links. Our modelling framework provides a simple approach for identifying the best possible management strategy for invasive species based on metapopulation structure and control capacity. This information can be used by managers trying to devise efficient landscape-oriented management strategies for invasive species and can also generate insights for conservation purposes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A major conundrum in evolution is that, despite natural selection, polymorphism is still omnipresent in nature: Numerous species exhibit multiple morphs, namely several abundant values of an important trait. Polymorphism is particularly prevalent in asymmetric traits, which are beneficial to their carrier in disruptive competitive interference but at the same time bear disadvantages in other aspects, such as greater mortality or lower fecundity. Here we focus on asymmetric traits in which a better competitor disperses fewer offspring in the absence of competition. We report a general pattern in which polymorphic populations emerge when disruptive selection increases: The stronger the selection, the greater the number of morphs that evolve. This pattern is general and is insensitive to the form of the fitness function. The pattern is somewhat counterintuitive since directional selection is excepted to sharpen the trait distribution and thereby reduce its diversity (but note that similar patterns were suggested in studies that demonstrated increased biodiversity as local selection increases in ecological communities). We explain the underlying mechanism in which stronger selection drives the population towards more competitive values of the trait, which in turn reduces the population density, thereby enabling lesser competitors to stably persist with reduced need to directly compete. Thus, we believe that the pattern is more general and may apply to asymmetric traits more broadly. This robust pattern suggests a comparative, unified explanation to a variety of polymorphic traits in nature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Large populations of free-roaming cats (FRCs) generate ongoing concerns for welfare of both individual animals and populations, for human public health, for viability of native wildlife populations, and for local ecological damage. Managing FRC populations is a complex task, without universal agreement on best practices. Previous analyses that use simulation modeling tools to evaluate alternative management methods have focused on relative efficacy of removal (or trap-return, TR), typically involving euthanasia, and sterilization (or trap-neuter-return, TNR) in demographically isolated populations. We used a stochastic demographic simulation approach to evaluate removal, permanent sterilization, and two postulated methods of temporary contraception for FRC population management. Our models include demographic connectivity to neighboring untreated cat populations through natural dispersal in a metapopulation context across urban and rural landscapes, and also feature abandonment of owned animals. Within population type, a given implementation rate of the TR strategy results in the most rapid rate of population decline and (when populations are isolated) the highest probability of population elimination, followed in order of decreasing efficacy by equivalent rates of implementation of TNR and temporary contraception. Even low levels of demographic connectivity significantly reduce the effectiveness of any management intervention, and continued abandonment is similarly problematic. This is the first demographic simulation analysis to consider the use of temporary contraception and account for the realities of FRC dispersal and owned cat abandonment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine the nature of variation in a hot vent tubeworm, Ridgeia piscesae, to determine how phenotypes are maintained and how reproductive potential is dictated by habitat. This foundation species at northeast Pacific hydrothermal sites occupies a wide habitat range in a highly heterogeneous environment. Where fluids supply high levels of dissolved sulphide for symbionts, the worm grows rapidly in a “short-fat” phenotype characterized by lush gill plumes; when plumes are healthy, sperm package capture is higher. This form can mature within months and has a high fecundity with continuous gamete output and a lifespan of about three years in unstable conditions. Other phenotypes occupy low fluid flux habitats that are more stable and individuals grow very slowly; however, they have low reproductive readiness that is hampered further by small, predator cropped branchiae, thus reducing fertilization and metabolite uptake. Although only the largest worms were measured, only 17% of low flux worms were reproductively competent compared to 91% of high flux worms. A model of reproductive readiness illustrates that tube diameter is a good predictor of reproductive output and that few low flux worms reached critical reproductive size. We postulate that most of the propagules for the vent fields originate from the larger tubeworms that live in small, unstable habitat patches. The large expanses of worms in more stable low flux habitat sustain a small, but long-term, reproductive output. Phenotypic variation is an adaptation that fosters both morphological and physiological responses to differences in chemical milieu and predator pressure. This foundation species forms a metapopulation with variable growth characteristics in a heterogeneous environment where a strategy of phenotypic variation bestows an advantage over specialization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Weather extremes may have strong effects on biodiversity, as known from theoretical and modelling studies. Predicted negative effects of increased weather variation are found only for a few species, mostly plants and birds in empirical studies. Therefore, we investigated correlations between weather variability and patterns in occupancy, local colonisations and local extinctions (metapopulation metrics) across four groups of ectotherms: Odonata, Orthoptera, Lepidoptera, and Reptilia. We analysed data of 134 species on a 1×1 km-grid base, collected in the last 20 years from the Netherlands, combining standardised data and opportunistic data. We applied dynamic site-occupancy models and used the results as input for analyses of (i) trends in distribution patterns, (ii) the effect of temperature on colonisation and persistence probability, and (iii) the effect of years with extreme weather on all the three metapopulation metrics. All groups, except butterflies, showed more positive than negative trends in metapopulation metrics. We did not find evidence that the probability of colonisation or persistence increases with temperature nor that extreme weather events are reflected in higher extinction risks. We could not prove that weather extremes have visible and consistent negative effects on ectothermic species in temperate northern hemisphere. These findings do not confirm the general prediction that increased weather variability imperils biodiversity. We conclude that weather extremes might not be ecologically relevant for the majority of species. Populations might be buffered against weather variation (e.g. by habitat heterogeneity), or other factors might be masking the effects (e.g. availability and quality of habitat). Consequently, we postulate that weather extremes have less, or different, impact in real world metapopulations than theory and models suggest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reconstructing the dynamics of populations is complicated by the different types of stochasticity experienced by populations, in particular if some forms of stochasticity introduce bias in parameter estimation in addition to error. Identification of systematic biases is critical when determining whether the intrinsic dynamics of populations are stable or unstable and whether or not populations exhibit an Allee effect, i.e., a minimum size below which deterministic extinction should follow. Using a simulation model that allows for Allee effects and a range of intrinsic dynamics, we investigated how three types of stochasticity—demographic, environmental, and random catastrophes— affect our ability to reconstruct the intrinsic dynamics of populations. Demographic stochasticity aside, which is only problematic in small populations, we find that environmental stochasticity—positive and negative environmental fluctuations—caused increased error in parameter estimation, but bias was rarely problematic, except at the highest levels of noise. Random catastrophes, events causing large-scale mortality and likely to be more common than usually recognized, caused immediate bias in parameter estimates, in particular when Allee effects were large. In the latter case, population stability was predicted when endogenous dynamics were actually unstable and the minimum viable population size was overestimated in populations with small or non-existent Allee effects. Catastrophes also generally increased extinction risk, in particular when endogenous Allee effects were large. We propose a method for identifying data points likely resulting from catastrophic events when such events have not been recorded. Using social spider colonies (Anelosimus spp.) as models for populations, we show that after known or suspected catastrophes are accounted for, reconstructed growth parameters are consistent with intrinsic dynamical instability and substantial Allee effects. Our results are applicable to metapopulation or time series data and are relevant for predicting extinction in conservation applications or the management of invasive species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stabilizing the dynamics of complex, non-linear systems is a major concern across several scientific disciplines including ecology and conservation biology. Unfortunately, most methods proposed to reduce the fluctuations in chaotic systems are not applicable to real, biological populations. This is because such methods typically require detailed knowledge of system specific parameters and the ability to manipulate them in real time; conditions often not met by most real populations. Moreover, real populations are often noisy and extinction-prone, which can sometimes render such methods ineffective. Here, we investigate a control strategy, which works by perturbing the population size, and is robust to reasonable amounts of noise and extinction probability. This strategy, called the Adaptive Limiter Control (ALC), has been previously shown to increase constancy and persistence of laboratory populations and metapopulations of Drosophila melanogaster. Here, we present a detailed numerical investigation of the effects of ALC on the fluctuations and persistence of metapopulations. We show that at high migration rates, application of ALC does not require a priori information about the population growth rates. We also show that ALC can stabilize metapopulations even when applied to as low as one-tenth of the total number of subpopulations. Moreover, ALC is effective even when the subpopulations have high extinction rates: conditions under which another control algorithm had previously failed to attain stability. Importantly, ALC not only reduces the fluctuation in metapopulation sizes, but also the global extinction probability. Finally, the method is robust to moderate levels of noise in the dynamics and the carrying capacity of the environment. These results, coupled with our earlier empirical findings, establish ALC to be a strong candidate for stabilizing real biological metapopulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigated density-dependent mortality within the early months of life of the bivalves Macoma balthica (Baltic tellin) and Cerastoderma edule (common cockle) in the Wadden Sea. Mortality is thought to be density-dependent in juvenile bivalves, because there is no proportional relationship between the size of the reproductive adult stocks and the numbers of recruits for both species. It is not known however, when exactly density dependence in the pre-recruitment phase occurs and how prevalent it is. The magnitude of recruitment determines year class strength in bivalves. Thus, understanding pre-recruit mortality will improve the understanding of population dynamics. We analyzed count data from three years of temporal sampling during the first months after bivalve settlement at ten transects in the Sylt-Rømø-Bay in the northern German Wadden Sea. Analyses of density dependence are sensitive to bias through measurement error. Measurement error was estimated by bootstrapping, and residual deviances were adjusted by adding process error. With simulations the effect of these two types of error on the estimate of the density-dependent mortality coefficient was investigated. In three out of eight time intervals density dependence was detected for M. balthica, and in zero out of six time intervals for C. edule. Biological or environmental stochastic processes dominated over density dependence at the investigated scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A complete understanding of population connectivity via larval dispersal is of great value to the effective design and management of marine protected areas (MPA). However empirical estimates of larval dispersal distance, self-recruitment, and within season variability of population connectivity patterns and their influence on metapopulation structure remain rare. We used high-resolution otolith microchemistry data from the temperate reef fish Hypsypops rubicundus to explore biweekly, seasonal, and annual connectivity patterns in an open-coast MPA network. The three MPAs, spanning 46 km along the southern California coastline were connected by larval dispersal, but the magnitude and direction of connections reversed between 2008 and 2009. Self-recruitment, i.e. spawning, dispersal, and settlement to the same location, was observed at two locations, one of which is a MPA. Self-recruitment to this MPA ranged from 50–84%; within the entire 60 km study region, self-recruitment accounted for 45% of all individuals settling to study reefs. On biweekly time scales we observed directional variability in alongshore current data and larval dispersal trajectories; if viewed in isolation these data suggest the system behaves as a source-sink metapopulation. However aggregate biweekly data over two years reveal a reef network in which H. rubicundus behaves more like a well-mixed metapopulation. As one of the few empirical studies of population connectivity within a temperate open coast reef network, this work can inform the MPA design process, implementation of ecosystem based management plans, and facilitate conservation decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Different populations of Atlantic herring are regarded as forming a metapopulation, but we know little about the dynamics of the connectivity and degree of interbreeding between the populations. Based on data from three periods between 1962 and 2011, we identified the presence of two components of herring in a small semi-enclosed coastal marine ecosystem based on different somatic growth patterns and mean vertebrae sum (VS). The two components were interpreted as belonging to a resident herring population and the migratory, oceanic Norwegian spring spawning (NSS) herring population, and they co-occurred during spawning. In the 1960s, resident herring characterized by slow growth and low VS co-occurred with rapid growth, high VS oceanic NSS herring. Similar slow-growing resident and rapid-growing NSS herring were found in the 1970–80s, but both populations now had low VS suggesting similar origins. Finally, in the 2000s both populations showed rapid growth. The changes coincided with the NSS herring going from a state of high abundance and oceanic distribution to a collapse in the late 1960s that resulted in a coastal distribution closer to resident herring populations, before full recovery and resumption of the migratory, oceanic pattern in the 1990s. During all three periods, NSS herring were only present in the local system up to an age of about five years, but the synchronous spawning of the populations supports mixed spawning and interbreeding. During the investigation period both longevity, length at age (growth) and length-at-first maturity increased markedly for the resident herring, which then became more similar to the NSS herring. Genetic and/or cultural factors are believed to be the main causes of the observed changes in life history traits, although some effect of changes in environmental factors cannot be excluded. Our study suggests that relationships among populations in a metapopulation can be highly dynamic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Intense urban and agricultural development alters habitats, increases fragmentation, and may decouple trophic interactions if plants or animals cannot disperse to needed resources. Specialist insects represent a substantial proportion of global biodiversity and their fidelity to discrete microhabitats provides a powerful framework for investigating organismal responses to human land use. We sampled site occupancy and densities for two plant-herbivore-parasitoid systems from 250 sites across a 360 km2 urban/agricultural landscape to ask whether and how human development decouples interactions between trophic levels. We compared patterns of site occupancy, host plant density, herbivory and parasitism rates of insects at two trophic levels with respect to landcover at multiple spatial scales. Geospatial analyses were used to identify landcover characters predictive of insect distributions. We found that herbivorous insect densities were decoupled from host tree densities in urban landcover types at several spatial scales. This effect was amplified for the third trophic level in one of the two insect systems: despite being abundant regionally, a parasitoid species was absent from all urban/suburban landcover even where its herbivore host was common. Our results indicate that human land use patterns limit distributions of specialist insects. Dispersal constraints associated with urban built development are specifically implicated as a limiting factor. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Marine megafauna tend to migrate vast distances, often crossing national borders and pose a significant challenge to managers. This challenge is particularly acute in the Pacific, which contains numerous small island nations and thousands of kilometers of continental margins. The green sea turtle, Chelonia mydas, is one such megafauna that is endangered in Pacific waters due to the overexploitation of eggs and adults for human consumption. Data from long-term tagging programs in Queensland (Australia) and New Caledonia were analysed to investigate the migrations by C. mydas across the Coral Sea between their nesting site and their feeding grounds. A review of data collected over the last 50 years by different projects identified multiple migrations of C. mydas to and from New Caledonia (n = 97) and indicate that turtles foraging in New Caledonia nest in the Great Barrier Reef (Australia) and vice versa. Several explanations exist for turtles exhibiting this energetically costly movement pattern from breeding to distant foraging grounds (1200–2680 km away) despite viable foraging habitat being available in the local vicinity. These include hatchling drift, oceanic movements and food abundance predictability. Most of the tag recoveries in New Caledonia belonged to females from the south Great Barrier Reef genetic stock. Some females (n = 2) even showed fidelity to foraging sites located 1200 km away from the nesting site located in New Caledonia. This study also reveals previously unknown migrations pathways of turtles within the Coral Sea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The process of niche construction can alter the trajectory of natural selection through organism-environment feedback. As such, the mechanism and impact of niche construction can be better investigated along environmental gradients. Here we investigate how the process of niche construction affects the distribution of genotypes and fitness landscape along an environmental gradient under three selection regimes, namely heterozygote superiority, genetic loci which dictates niche construction ability being either selectively neutral or non-neutral. Using a spatially explicit cellular automaton, we show that niche construction can stratify genetic diversity by forming band-like distributions consisting of different genotypic compositions and promote reproduction isolation by forming a divide with reduced average fitness along the gradients, termed a fitness valley. The band structure and the presence of a fitness valley depend on heterogeneous environments, resource-dependent fitness and the selection acting on the gene loci affecting the niche-constructing ability. Our work adds to the growing body of evidence on criticizing species distribution models which assume that the environment alone can determine species distributions. Based on the results, we argue that conservation planning should target preserving or restoring environmental gradients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Genetic drift and non-random mating seldom influence species with large breeding populations and high dispersal potential, characterized by unstructured gene pool and panmixia at a scale lower than the minimum dispersal range of individuals. In the present study, a set of nine microsatellite markers was developed and used to investigate the spatio-temporal genetic patterns of the holoplanktonic jellyfish Pelagia noctiluca (Scyphozoa) in the Southern Tyrrhenian Sea. Homozygote excess was detected at eight loci, and individuals exhibited intra-population relatedness higher than expected by chance in at least three samples. This result was supported by the presence of siblings in at least 5 out 8 samples, 4 of which contained full-sib in addition to half-sib dyads. Having tested and ruled out alternative explanations as null alleles, our results suggest the influence of reproductive and behavioural features in shaping the genetic structure of P. noctiluca, as outcomes of population genetics analyses pointed out. Indeed, the genetic differentiation among populations was globally small but highlighted: a) a spatial genetic patchiness uncorrelated with distance between sampling locations, and b) a significant genetic heterogeneity between samples collected in the same locations in different years. Therefore, despite its extreme dispersal potential, P. noctiluca does not maintain a single homogenous population, but rather these jellyfish appear to have intra-bloom localized recruitment and/or individual cohesiveness, whereby siblings more likely swarm together as a single group and remain close after spawning events. These findings provide the first evidence of family structures and consequent genetic patchiness in a species with highly dispersive potential throughout its whole life cycle, contributing to understanding the patterns of dispersal and connectivity in marine environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although they play a critical role in shaping ecological communities, many threatened predator species are data-deficient. The Dhole Cuon alpinus is one such rare canid with a global population thought to be <2500 wild individuals. We assessed habitat occupancy patterns of dholes in the Western Ghats of Karnataka, India, to understand ecological and anthropogenic determinants of their distribution and habitat-use. We conducted spatially replicated detection/non-detection surveys of dhole signs along forest trails at two appropriate scales: the entire landscape and a single wildlife reserve. Landscape-scale habitat occupancy was assessed across 38,728 km2 surveying 206 grid cells of 188-km2 each. Finer scale habitat-use within 935 km2 Bandipur Reserve was studied surveying 92 grid cells of 13-km2 km each. We analyzed the resulting data of dhole signs using likelihood-based habitat occupancy models. The models explicitly addressed the problematic issue of imperfect detection of dhole signs during field surveys as well as potential spatial auto-correlation between sign detections made on adjacent trail segments. We show that traditional ‘presence versus absence’ analyses underestimated dhole habitat occupancy by 60% or 8682 km2 [naïve = 0.27; (SE) = 0.68 (0.08)] in the landscape. Addressing imperfect sign detections by estimating detection probabilities [(L) (SE) = 0.12 (0.11)] was critical for reliable estimation. Similar underestimation occurred while estimating habitat-use probability at reserve-scale [naïve = 0.39; (SE) = 0.71 (0.06)]. At landscape scale, relative abundance of principal ungulate prey primarily influenced dhole habitat occupancy. Habitat-use within a reserve, however, was predominantly and negatively influenced by anthropogenic disturbance. Our results are the first rigorous assessment of dhole occupancy at multiple spatial scales with potential conservation value. The approach used in this study has potential utility for cost-effectively assessing spatial distribution and habitat-use in other species, landscapes and reserves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many habitat specialist species are originally composed of small, discontinuous populations because their habitats are naturally fragmented or patchy. They may have suffered the long-term effects of natural patchiness. Mediterranean heathlands, a representative habitat in the Strait of Gibraltar region, are associated with nutrient-poor, acidic sandstone soils. Sandstone soil patches in the African side of the Strait (Tangier) are, in general, smaller and more scattered than in the European side (Algeciras). In this study, we analyze the effect of this sandstone patchiness on the population genetic diversity and structure of two Erica species from these Mediterranean heathlands that differ in their edaphic specificity, E. australis, sandstone specialist, and E. arborea, generalist. Average levels of within-population genetic diversity and gene flow between populations were significantly lower in Tangier (high sandstone patchiness) than in Algeciras (low patchiness) for the sandstone specialist, whereas no differences between both sides of the Strait were detected in the edaphic generalist. Since most endemic species in Mediterranean heathlands of the Strait of Gibraltar are sandstone specialists, these results highlight an increased vulnerability to loss of genetic diversity and local extinction of the heathland endemic flora in the Tangier side of the Strait of Gibraltar. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Group life involves both advantages and disadvantages, meaning that individuals have to compromise between their nutritional needs and their social links. When a compromise is impossible, the group splits in order to reduce conflict of interests and favour positive social interactions between its members. In this study we built a dynamic model of social networks to represent a succession of temporary fissions involving a change in social relations that could potentially lead to irreversible group fission (i.e. no more group fusion). This is the first study that assesses how a social network changes according to group fission-fusion dynamics. We built a model that was based on different parameters: the group size, the influence of nutritional needs compared to social needs, and the changes in the social network after a temporary fission. The results obtained from this theoretical data indicate how the percentage of social relation transfer, the number of individuals and the relative importance of nutritional requirements and social links influence the average number of days before irreversible fission occurs. The greater the nutritional needs and the higher the transfer of social relations during temporary fission, the fewer days will be observed before an irreversible fission. It is crucial to bridge the gap between the individual and the population level if we hope to understand how simple, local interactions may drive ecological systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vector control interventions have resulted in considerable reductions in malaria morbidity and mortality. When universal coverage cannot be achieved for financial or logistical reasons, the spatial arrangement of vector control is potentially important for optimizing benefits. This study investigated the effect of spatial clustering of vector control interventions on reducing the population of biting mosquitoes. A discrete-space continuous-time mathematical model of mosquito population dynamics and dispersal was extended to incorporate vector control interventions of insecticide treated bednets (ITNs), Indoor residual Spraying (IRS), and larviciding. Simulations were run at varying levels of coverage and degree of spatial clustering. At medium to high coverage levels of each of the interventions or in combination was more effective to spatially spread these interventions than to cluster them. Suggesting that when financial resources are limited, unclustered distribution of these interventions is more effective. Although it is often stated that locally high coverage is needed to achieve a community effect of ITNs or IRS, our results suggest that if the coverage of ITNs or IRS are insufficient to achieve universal coverage, and there is no targeting of high risk areas, the overall effects on mosquito densities are much greater if they are distributed in an unclustered way, rather than clustered in specific localities. Also, given that interventions are often delivered preferentially to accessible areas, and are therefore clustered, our model results show this may be inefficient. This study provides evidence that the effectiveness of an intervention can be highly dependent on its spatial distribution. Vector control plans should consider the spatial arrangement of any intervention package to ensure effectiveness is maximized. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Data from two long-term citizen science projects were used to examine the status and ecology of a Red List species, the Secretarybird Sagittarius serpentarius (Vulnerable), in South Africa. The first phase of the Southern African Bird Atlas Project operated from 1987 until 1992, and the second phase began in 2007. The Coordinated Avifaunal Roadcounts (CAR) project began in 1993 and by 1998 had expanded to cover much of the south-eastern half of the country. Data submitted up until April 2013 were used. A new method of comparing reporting rates between atlas projects was developed. Changing reporting rates are likely to reflect changes in abundance; in this instance the data suggest that the Secretarybird population decreased across much of South Africa between the two atlas projects, with a widespread important decrease in the Kruger National Park. Habitat data from the CAR project were analysed to gain insight into the ecology of the species. Secretarybirds tended to avoid transformed habitats across much of the area covered by the CAR project. In the winter rainfall region of the Western Cape, which is characterised by heavily transformed fynbos vegetation, at least 50% of Secretarybirds recorded were in transformed environments. This implies that in the Fynbos biome, at least, Secretarybirds have adapted to transformed environments to some degree. However, in the rest of the country it is likely that habitat loss, largely through widespread bush encroachment but also through agriculture, afforestation, and urbanisation, is a major threat to the species. The methods developed here represent a new approach to analysing data from long-term citizen science projects, which can provide important insights into a species' conservation status and ecology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Population reduction is often used as a control strategy when managing infectious diseases in wildlife populations in order to reduce host density below a critical threshold. However, population reduction can disrupt existing social and demographic structures leading to changes in observed host behaviour that may result in enhanced disease transmission. Such effects have been observed in several disease systems, notably badgers and bovine tuberculosis. Here we characterise the fundamental properties of disease systems for which such effects undermine the disease control benefits of population reduction. By quantifying the size of response to population reduction in terms of enhanced transmission within a generic non-spatial model, the properties of disease systems in which such effects reduce or even reverse the disease control benefits of population reduction are identified. If population reduction is not sufficiently severe, then enhanced transmission can lead to the counter intuitive perturbation effect, whereby disease levels increase or persist where they would otherwise die out. Perturbation effects are largest for systems with low levels of disease, e.g. low levels of endemicity or emerging disease. Analysis of a stochastic spatial meta-population model of demography and disease dynamics leads to qualitatively similar conclusions. Moreover, enhanced transmission itself is found to arise as an emergent property of density dependent dispersal in such systems. This spatial analysis also shows that, below some threshold, population reduction can rapidly increase the area affected by disease, potentially expanding risks to sympatric species. Our results suggest that the impact of population reduction on social and demographic structures is likely to undermine disease control in many systems, and in severe cases leads to the perturbation effect. Social and demographic mechanisms that enhance transmission following population reduction should therefore be routinely considered when designing control programmes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rabies is a worldwide zoonosis resulting from Lyssavirus infection. In Europe, Eptesicus serotinus is the most frequently reported bat species infected with Lyssavirus, and thus considered to be the reservoir of European bat Lyssavirus type 1 (EBLV-1). To date, the role of other bat species in EBLV-1 epidemiology and persistence remains unknown. Here, we built an EBLV-1−transmission model based on local observations of a three-cave and four-bat species (Myotis capaccinii, Myotis myotis, Miniopterus schreibersii, Rhinolophus ferrumequinum) system in the Balearic Islands, for which a 1995–2011 serological dataset indicated the continuous presence of EBLV-1. Eptesicus serotinus was never observed in the system during the 16-year follow-up and therefore was not included in the model. We used the model to explore virus persistence mechanisms and to assess the importance of each bat species in the transmission dynamics. We found that EBLV-1 could not be sustained if transmission between M. schreibersii and other bat species was eliminated, suggesting that this species serves as a regional reservoir. Global sensitivity analysis using Sobol's method revealed that following the rate of autumn−winter infectious contacts, M. schreibersii's incubation- and immune-period durations, but not the infectious period length, were the most relevant factors driving virus persistence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dispersal knowledge is essential for conservation management, and demand is growing. But are we accumulating dispersal knowledge at a pace that can meet the demand? To answer this question we tested for changes in dispersal data collection and use over time. Our systematic review of 655 conservation-related publications compared five topics: climate change, habitat restoration, population viability analysis, land planning (systematic conservation planning) and invasive species. We analysed temporal changes in the: (i) questions asked by dispersal-related research; (ii) methods used to study dispersal; (iii) the quality of dispersal data; (iv) extent that dispersal knowledge is lacking, and; (v) likely consequences of limited dispersal knowledge. Research questions have changed little over time; the same problems examined in the 1990s are still being addressed. The most common methods used to study dispersal were occupancy data, expert opinion and modelling, which often provided indirect, low quality information about dispersal. Although use of genetics for estimating dispersal has increased, new ecological and genetic methods for measuring dispersal are not yet widely adopted. Almost half of the papers identified knowledge gaps related to dispersal. Limited dispersal knowledge often made it impossible to discover ecological processes or compromised conservation outcomes. The quality of dispersal data used in climate change research has increased since the 1990s. In comparison, restoration ecology inadequately addresses large-scale process, whilst the gap between knowledge accumulation and growth in applications may be increasing in land planning. To overcome apparent stagnation in collection and use of dispersal knowledge, researchers need to: (i) improve the quality of available data using new approaches; (ii) understand the complementarities of different methods and; (iii) define the value of different kinds of dispersal information for supporting management decisions. Ambitious, multi-disciplinary research programs studying many species are critical for advancing dispersal research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The maintenance of both spatial and genetic connectivity is paramount to the long-term persistence of small, isolated populations living in environments with extreme climates. We aim to identify the distribution of genetic diversity and assess population sub-structuring and dispersal across dwarfed desert populations of Crocodylus suchus, which occur in isolated groups, usually less than five individuals, along the mountains of Mauritania (West Africa). We used both invasive and non-invasive sampling methods and a combination of mitochondrial DNA (12 S and ND4) and microsatellite markers (32 loci and a subset of 12 loci). Our results showed high genetic differentiation and geographic structure in Mauritanian populations of C. suchus. We identified a metapopulation system acting within four river sub-basins (high gene flow and absence of genetic structure) and considerable genetic differentiation between sub-basins (FST range: 0.12–0.24) with rare dispersal events. Effective population sizes tend to be low within sub-basins while genetic diversity is maintained. Our study suggests that hydrographic networks (temporal connections along seasonal rivers during rainy periods) allow C. suchus to disperse and maintain metapopulation dynamics within sub-basins, which attenuate the loss of genetic diversity and the risk of extinction. We highlight the need of hydrographic conservation to protect vulnerable crocodiles isolated in small water bodies. We propose C. suchus as an umbrella species in Mauritania based on ecological affinities shared with other water-dependent species in desert environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Structural elements for breeding such as nests are key resources for the conservation of bird populations. This is especially true when structural elements require a specific and restricted habitat, or if the construction of nests is costly in time and energy. The availability of nesting-platforms is influenced by nest creation and persistence. In a Mediterranean forest in southeastern Spain, nesting-platforms are the only structural element for three forest-dwelling raptor species: booted eagle Aquila pennata, common buzzard Buteo buteo and northern goshawk Accipiter gentilis. From 1998 to 2013, we tracked the fate of 157 nesting-platforms built and reused by these species with the aim of determining the rates of creation and destruction of nesting-platforms, estimating nest persistence by applying two survival analyses, describing the pattern of nest reuse and testing the effects of nest use on breeding success. Nest creation and destruction rates were low (0.14 and 0.05, respectively). Using Kaplan Meier survival estimates and Cox proportional-hazards regression models we found that median nest longevity was 12 years and that this was not significantly affected by nest characteristics, nest-tree dimensions, nest-builder species, or frequency of use of the platform. We also estimated a transition matrix, considering the different stages of nest occupation (vacant or occupied by one of the focal species), to obtain the fundamental matrix and the average life expectancies of nests, which varied from 17.9 to 19.7 years. Eighty six percent of nests were used in at least one breeding attempt, 67.5% were reused and 17.8% were successively occupied by at least two of the study species. The frequency of nest use had no significant effects on the breeding success of any species. We conclude that nesting-platforms constitute an important resource for forest raptors and that their longevity is sufficiently high to allow their reuse in multiple breeding attempts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Small and peripheral populations are typically vulnerable to local extinction processes but important for the metapopulation dynamics of species. The Slender-billed gull (Chroicocephalus genei) is a long-lived species breeding in unstable ephemeral coastal habitats. Their Western Mediterranean populations are relatively small and represent the edge of their global geographical distribution. At a local scale, using long-term data (14 years) on annual breeding success and capture-resights of marked individuals, we estimated and compared the vital rates and evaluated the connectivity of two Spanish populations (Ebro Delta and Doñana) varying in their local environmental conditions. At a metapopulation scale, we analyzed 22 years of data on breeding numbers to predict their future prospects by means of population demographic models. Local survival and breeding success of gulls from the Ebro Delta was lower than those from Doñana, which is likely the result of higher permanent emigration and/or winter mortality in the former. Gulls from the Ebro Delta wintered mostly in Mediterranean areas whereas those from Doñana did so in Atlantic coasts, where food availability is higher. Whereas adult local survival was constant, juvenile local survival showed temporal parallel variations between colonies, probably related to natal dispersal to other breeding colonies. Our results suggested that dispersal was higher at the Ebro Delta and gulls emigrating from their natal colonies settled preferentially in close patches. We found large fluctuations in breeding numbers among local populations probably related to the fact that the Slender-billed gull is a species adapted to unstable and unpredictable habitats with high abilities to disperse between suitable patches depending on environmental stochastic conditions during breeding. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Globalization has increased the potential for the introduction and spread of novel pathogens over large spatial scales necessitating continental-scale disease models to guide emergency preparedness. Livestock disease spread models, such as those for the 2001 foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic in the United Kingdom, represent some of the best case studies of large-scale disease spread. However, generalization of these models to explore disease outcomes in other systems, such as the United States’s cattle industry, has been hampered by differences in system size and complexity and the absence of suitable livestock movement data. Here, a unique database of US cattle shipments allows estimation of synthetic movement networks that inform a near-continental scale disease model of a potential FMD-like (i.e., rapidly spreading) epidemic in US cattle. The largest epidemics may affect over one-third of the US and 120,000 cattle premises, but cattle movement restrictions from infected counties, as opposed to national movement moratoriums, are found to effectively contain outbreaks. Slow detection or weak compliance may necessitate more severe state-level bans for similar control. Such results highlight the role of large-scale disease models in emergency preparedness, particularly for systems lacking comprehensive movement and outbreak data, and the need to rapidly implement multi-scale contingency plans during a potential US outbreak. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Marked variation occurs in both seasonal and multiannual population density peaks of northern European small mammal species, including voles. The availability of dietary proteins is a key factor limiting the population growth of herbivore species. The objective of this study is to investigate the degree to which protein availability influences the growth of increasing vole populations. We hypothesise that the summer growth of folivorous vole populations is positively associated with dietary protein availability. A field experiment was conducted over a summer reproductive period in 18 vegetated enclosures. Populations of field voles (Microtus agrestis) were randomised amongst three treatment groups: 1) food supplementation with ad libitum high protein (30% dry weight) pellets, 2) food supplementation with ad libitum low protein (1% dry weight; both supplemented foods had equivalent energy content) pellets, and 3) control (no food supplementation), n = 6 per treatment. Vole density, survival, demographic attributes and condition indicators were monitored with live-trapping and blood sampling. Highest final vole densities were attained in populations that received high protein supplementation and lowest in low protein populations. Control populations displayed intermediate densities. The survival rate of voles was similar in all treatment groups. The proportion of females, and of those that were pregnant or lactating, was highest in the high protein supplemented populations. This suggests that variation in reproductive, rather than survival rates of voles, accounted for density differences between the treatment groups. We found no clear association between population demography and individual physiological condition. Our results demonstrate that dietary protein availability limits vole population growth during the summer growing season. This suggests that the nutritional quality of forage may be an underestimated source of interannual variation in the density and growth rates of widely fluctuating populations of herbivorous small mammals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We tested the hypotheses that species with greater mobility and/or higher reproductive rates are less sensitive to habitat loss than species with lower mobility and/or reproductive rates by conducting a meta-analysis of wetland vertebrate responses to wetland habitat loss. We combined data from 90 studies conducted worldwide that quantified the relationship between wetland amount in a landscape and population abundance of at least one wetland species to determine if mobility (indexed as home range size and body length) and annual reproductive rate influence species responses to wetland loss. When analyzed across all taxa, animals with higher reproductive rates were less sensitive to wetland loss. Surprisingly, we did not find an effect of mobility on response to wetland loss. Overall, wetland mammals and birds were more sensitive to wetland loss than were reptiles and amphibians. Our results suggest that dispersal between habitat patches is less important than species’ reproductive rates for population persistence in fragmented landscapes. This implies that immigration and colonization rate is most strongly related to reproduction, which determines the total number of potential colonists. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Polymorphic microsatellite DNA parentage analysis was used to investigate the spatio-temporal variability of self-recruitment in populations of two anemonefishes: Amphiprion ocellaris and A. perideraion. Tissue samples of A. ocellaris (n = 364) and A. perideraion (n = 105) were collected from fringing reefs around two small islands (Barrang Lompo and Samalona) in Spermonde Archipelago, Indonesia. Specimens were genotyped based on seven microsatellite loci for A. ocellaris and five microsatellite loci for A. perideraion, and parentage assignment as well as site fidelity were calculated. Both species showed high levels of self-recruitment: 65.2% of juvenile A. ocellaris in Samalona were the progeny of parents from the same island, while on Barrang Lompo 47.4% of A. ocellaris and 46.9% of A. perideraion juveniles had parents from that island. Self-recruitment of A. ocellaris in Barrang Lompo varied from 44% to 52% between the two sampling periods. The site fidelity of A. ocellaris juveniles that returned to their reef site in Barang Lompo was up to 44%, while for A. perideraion up to 19%. In Samalona, the percentage of juveniles that returned to their natal reef site ranged from 8% to 11%. Exchange of progeny between the two study islands, located 7.5 km apart, was also detected via parentage assignments. The larger Samalona adult population of A. ocellaris was identified as the parents of 21% of Barrang Lompo juveniles, while the smaller adult population on Barrang Lompo were the parents of only 4% of Samalona juveniles. High self-recruitment and recruitment to nearby island reefs have important implications for management and conservation of anemonefishes. Small MPAs, preferably on every island/reef, should ensure that a part of the population is protected to enable replenishment by the highly localised recruitment behaviour observed in these species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to anthropogenic pressures, African lion (Panthera leo) populations in Kenya and Tanzania are increasingly limited to fragmented populations. Lions living on isolated habitat patches exist in a matrix of less-preferred habitat. A framework of habitat patches within a less-suitable matrix describes a metapopulation. Metapopulation analysis can provide insight into the dynamics of each population patch in reference to the system as a whole, and these analyses often guide conservation planning. We present the first metapopulation analysis of African lions. We use a spatially-realistic model to investigate how sex-biased dispersal abilities of lions affect patch occupancy and also examine whether human densities surrounding the remaining lion populations affect the metapopulation as a whole. Our results indicate that male lion dispersal ability strongly contributes to population connectivity while the lesser dispersal ability of females could be a limiting factor. When populations go extinct, recolonization will not occur if distances between patches exceed female dispersal ability or if females are not able to survive moving across the matrix. This has profound implications for the overall metapopulation; the female models showed an intrinsic extinction rate from five-fold to a hundred-fold higher than the male models. Patch isolation is a consideration for even the largest lion populations. As lion populations continue to decline and with local extinctions occurring, female dispersal ability and the proximity to the nearest lion population are serious considerations for the recolonization of individual populations and for broader conservation efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Data collected to inform time variations in natural population size are tainted by sampling error. Ignoring sampling error in population dynamics models induces bias in parameter estimators, e.g., density-dependence. In particular, when sampling errors are independent among populations, the classical estimator of the synchrony strength (zero-lag correlation) is biased downward. However, this bias is rarely taken into account in synchrony studies although it may lead to overemphasizing the role of intrinsic factors (e.g., dispersal) with respect to extrinsic factors (the Moran effect) in generating population synchrony as well as to underestimating the extinction risk of a metapopulation. Methodology/Principal findings: The aim of this paper was first to illustrate the extent of the bias that can be encountered in empirical studies when sampling error is neglected. Second, we presented a space-state modelling approach that explicitly accounts for sampling error when quantifying population synchrony. Third, we exemplify our approach with datasets for which sampling variance (i) has been previously estimated, and (ii) has to be jointly estimated with population synchrony. Finally, we compared our results to those of a standard approach neglecting sampling variance. We showed that ignoring sampling variance can mask a synchrony pattern whatever its true value and that the common practice of averaging few replicates of population size estimates poorly performed at decreasing the bias of the classical estimator of the synchrony strength. Conclusion/Significance: The state-space model used in this study provides a flexible way of accurately quantifying the strength of synchrony patterns from most population size data encountered in field studies, including over-dispersed count data. We provided a user-friendly R-program and a tutorial example to encourage further studies aiming at quantifying the strength of population synchrony to account for uncertainty in population size estimates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High elevation montane areas are called “sky islands” when they occur as a series of high mountains separated by lowland valleys. Different climatic conditions at high elevations makes sky islands a specialized type of habitat, rendering them naturally fragmented compared to more continuous habitat at lower elevations. Species in sky islands face unsuitable climate in the intervening valleys when moving from one montane area to another. The high elevation shola-grassland mosaic in the Western Ghats of southern India form one such sky island complex. The fragmented patches make this area ideal to study the effect of the spatial orientation of suitable habitat patches on population genetic structure of species found in these areas. Past studies have suggested that sky islands tend to have genetically structured populations, possibly due to reduced gene flow between montane areas. To test this hypothesis, we adopted the comparative approach. Using Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphisms, we compared population genetic structures of two closely related, similar sized butterfly species: Heteropsis oculus, a high elevation shola-grassland specialist restricted to the southern Western Ghats, and Mycalesis patnia, found more continuously distributed in lower elevations. In all analyses, as per expectation the sky island specialist H. oculus exhibited a greater degree of population genetic structure than M. patnia, implying a difference in geneflow. This difference in geneflow in turn appears to be due to the natural fragmentation of the sky island complexes. Detailed analysis of a subset of H. oculus samples from one sky island complex (the Anamalais) showed a surprising genetic break. A possible reason for this break could be unsuitable conditions of higher temperature and lower rainfall in the intervening valley region. Thus, sky island species are not only restricted by lack of habitat continuity between montane areas, but also by the nature of the intervening habitat. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An important question for mosquito population dynamics, mosquito-borne pathogen transmission and vector control is how mosquito populations are regulated. Here we develop simple models with heterogeneity in egg laying patterns and in the responses of larval populations to crowding in aquatic habitats. We use the models to evaluate how such heterogeneity affects mosquito population regulation and the effects of larval source management (LSM). We revisit the notion of a carrying capacity and show how heterogeneity changes our understanding of density dependence and the outcome of LSM. Crowding in and productivity of aquatic habitats is highly uneven unless egg-laying distributions are fine-tuned to match the distribution of habitats’ carrying capacities. LSM reduces mosquito population density linearly with coverage if adult mosquitoes avoid laying eggs in treated habitats, but quadratically if eggs are laid in treated habitats and the effort is therefore wasted (i.e., treating 50% of habitat reduces mosquito density by approximately 75%). Unsurprisingly, targeting (i.e. treating a subset of the most productive pools) gives much larger reductions for similar coverage, but with poor targeting, increasing coverage could increase adult mosquito population densities if eggs are laid in higher capacity habitats. Our analysis suggests that, in some contexts, LSM models that accounts for heterogeneity in production of adult mosquitoes provide theoretical support for pursuing mosquito-borne disease prevention through strategic and repeated application of modern larvicides. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Metapopulation dynamics over the course of an invasion are usually difficult to grasp because they require large and reliable data collection, often unavailable. The invasion of the fish-free freshwater ecosystems of the remote sub-Antarctic Kerguelen Islands following man-made introductions of brown trout (Salmo trutta) in the 1950's is an exception to this rule. Benefiting from a full long term environmental research monitoring of the invasion, we built a Bayesian dynamic metapopulation model to analyze the invasion dynamics of 85 river systems over 51 years. The model accounted for patch size (river length and connections to lakes), alternative dispersal pathways between rivers, temporal trends in dynamics, and uncertainty in colonization date. The results show that the model correctly represents the observed pattern of invasion, especially if we assume a coastal dispersal pathway between patches. Landscape attributes such as patch size influenced the colonization function, but had no effect on propagule pressure. Independently from patch size and distance between patches, propagule pressure and colonization function were not constant through time. Propagule pressure increased over the course of colonization, whereas the colonization function decreased, conditional on propagule pressure. The resulting pattern of this antagonistic interplay is an initial rapid invasion phase followed by a strong decrease in the invasion rate. These temporal trends may be due to either adaptive processes or environmental gradients encountered along the colonization front. It was not possible to distinguish these two hypotheses. Because invasibility of Kerguelen Is. freshwater ecosystems is very high due to the lack of a pre-existing fish fauna and minimal human interference, our estimates of invasion dynamics represent a blueprint for the potential of brown trout invasiveness in pristine environments. Our conclusions shed light on the future of polar regions where, because of climate change, fish-free ecosystems become increasingly accessible to invasion by fish species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Individual massive coral colonies, primarily faviids and poritids, from three distinct assemblages within the southeastern Arabian Gulf and northwestern Gulf of Oman (United Arab Emirates) were studied from 2006–2009. Annual photographic censuses of approximately 2000 colonies were used to describe the demographics (size class frequencies, abundance, area cover) and population dynamics under “normal” environmental conditions. Size class transitions included growth, which occurred in 10–20% of the colonies, followed in decending order by partial mortality (3–16%), colony fission (<5%) and ramet fusion (<3%). Recruitment and whole colony mortality rates were low (<0.7 colonies/m2) with minimal interannual variation. Transition matrices indicated that the Arabian Gulf assemblages have declining growth rates (λ<1) whereas the massive coral population is stable (λ = 1) in the Gulf of Oman. Projection models indicated that (i) the Arabian Gulf population and area cover declines would be exacerbated under 10-year and 16-year disturbance scenarios as the vital rates do not allow for recovery to pre-disturbance levels during these timeframes, and (ii) the Gulf of Oman assemblage could return to its pre-disturbance area cover but its overall population size would not fully recover under the same scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite their role in providing ecosystem services, insects remain overlooked in conservation planning, and insect management approaches often lack a rigorous scientific basis. The endangered Ohlone tiger beetle (Cicindela ohlone) occurs in a 24-km2 area in Santa Cruz County, California. The once larger metapopulation now consists of subpopulations inhabiting five patches of coastal prairie where it depends on bare ground for mating, foraging, and oviposition. Human activities have eliminated natural disturbances and spread invasive grasses, reducing C. ohlone's bare-ground habitat. Management actions to restore critical beetle habitat consist of cattle and horse grazing, maintaining slow bicycle speeds on occupied public trails, and artificial creation of bare-ground plots. Recreational biking trails help maintain bare ground, but can cause beetle mortality if left unregulated. We tracked C. ohlone survivorship and estimated fecundity for three years. We then constructed a stage-structured population projection matrix model to estimate population viability among the five patches, and to evaluate the success of management interventions. We demonstrate that habitat creation, regulation of bicycle speed, and migration between patches increase C. ohlone survival and population viability. Our results can be directly applied to management actions for conservation outcomes that will reduce species extinction risk and promote recolonization of extirpated patches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Genetic studies and differing population trends support the separation of Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) into a western distinct population segment (WDPS) and an eastern DPS (EDPS) with the dividing line between populations at 144° W. Despite little exchange for thousands of years, the gap between the breeding ranges narrowed during the past 15–30 years with the formation of new rookeries near the DPS boundary. We analyzed >22,000 sightings of 4,172 sea lions branded as pups in each DPS from 2000–2010 to estimate probabilities of a sea lion born in one DPS being seen within the range of the other DPS (either ‘West’ or ‘East’). Males from both populations regularly traveled across the DPS boundary; probabilities were highest at ages 2–5 and for males born in Prince William Sound and southern Southeast Alaska. The probability of WDPS females being in the East at age 5 was 0.067 but 0 for EDPS females which rarely traveled to the West. Prince William Sound-born females had high probabilities of being in the East during breeding and non-breeding seasons. We present strong evidence that WDPS females have permanently emigrated to the East, reproducing at two ‘mixing zone’ rookeries. We documented breeding bulls that traveled >6,500 km round trip from their natal rookery in southern Alaska to the northern Bering Sea and central Aleutian Islands and back within one year. WDPS animals began moving East in the 1990s, following steep population declines in the central Gulf of Alaska. Results of our study, and others documenting high survival and rapid population growth in northern Southeast Alaska suggest that conditions in this mixing zone region have been optimal for sea lions. It is unclear whether eastward movement across the DPS boundary is due to less-optimal conditions in the West or a reflection of favorable conditions in the East. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Metapopulation dynamics over the course of an invasion are usually difficult to grasp because they require large and reliable data collection, often unavailable. The invasion of the fish-free freshwater ecosystems of the remote sub-Antarctic Kerguelen Islands following man-made introductions of brown trout (Salmo trutta) in the 1950's is an exception to this rule. Benefiting from a full long term environmental research monitoring of the invasion, we built a Bayesian dynamic metapopulation model to analyze the invasion dynamics of 85 river systems over 51 years. The model accounted for patch size (river length and connections to lakes), alternative dispersal pathways between rivers, temporal trends in dynamics, and uncertainty in colonization date. The results show that the model correctly represents the observed pattern of invasion, especially if we assume a coastal dispersal pathway between patches. Landscape attributes such as patch size influenced the colonization function, but had no effect on propagule pressure. Independently from patch size and distance between patches, propagule pressure and colonization function were not constant through time. Propagule pressure increased over the course of colonization, whereas the colonization function decreased, conditional on propagule pressure. The resulting pattern of this antagonistic interplay is an initial rapid invasion phase followed by a strong decrease in the invasion rate. These temporal trends may be due to either adaptive processes or environmental gradients encountered along the colonization front. It was not possible to distinguish these two hypotheses. Because invasibility of Kerguelen Is. freshwater ecosystems is very high due to the lack of a pre-existing fish fauna and minimal human interference, our estimates of invasion dynamics represent a blueprint for the potential of brown trout invasiveness in pristine environments. Our conclusions shed light on the future of polar regions where, because of climate change, fish-free ecosystems become increasingly accessible to invasion by fish species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The subterranean termite Reticulitermes chinensis Snyder is an important pest of trees and buildings in China. Here, we characterized genetic structure and reproductive modes of R. chinensis from China for the first time. A total of 1,875 workers from 75 collection sites in Huanggang, Changsha and Chongqing cities were genotyped at eight microsatellite loci. Analysis of genetic clusters showed two subpopulations in Chongqing city. The Huanggang population showed a uniform genetic pattern and was separated from the other populations by the largest genetic distances (FST: 0.17–0.20). In contrast, smaller genetic distances (FST: 0.05–0.12) separated Changsha, Chongqing-1 and Chongqing-2 populations. Chongqing-1 was the only population showing a genetic bottleneck. Isolation by distance among colonies in the Huanggang population indicated limited alate dispersal or colony budding. Lack of isolation by distance among colonies within the populations of Changsha, Chongqing-1 and Chongqing-2, suggested long-range dispersal by alates and/or human-mediated transport. Overall, extended family colonies (73.91%) were predominant in all four populations, followed by simple (20.29%), and mixed family colonies (5.80%). Most simple families were headed by inbred related reproductive pairs in the Changsha population, while most simple families in the Chongqing-1 population were headed by outbred unrelated pairs. Simple families in the Huanggang population were a mixture of colonies headed by outbred or inbred reproductive pairs. The sample size of simple families in the Chongqing-2 population was too small to yield significant results. Extended families in all four populations were headed on the average by ≤10 neotenics. Mixed families likely originated from pleometrosis. Presence of heterozygote genotypes showed that all neotenic reproductives collected in addition from five field colonies in Wuhan city were sexually produced, suggesting that these colonies did not undergo parthenogenesis. This study contributes to better understanding of the variance of genetic structure and reproductive mode in the genus Reticulitermes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several arthropods are known to be highly beneficial to agricultural production. Consequently it is of great relevance to study the importance of land management and land composition for the conservation of beneficial aphid-predator arthropod species in agricultural areas. Therefore our study focusing on the beneficial arthropod Bembidion lampros had two main purposes: I) identifying the physical barriers to the species' dispersal in the agricultural landscape, and II) assessing the effect of different land management strategies (i.e. use of pesticides and intensiveness) on the dispersal patterns. The study was conducted using genetic analysis (microsatellite markers) applied to samples from two agricultural areas (in Denmark) with different agricultural intensity. Land management effects on dispersal patterns were investigated with particular focus on: physical barriers, use of pesticide and intensity of cultivation. The results showed that Bembidion lampros disperse preferably through hedges rather than fields, which act as physical barriers to gene flow. Moreover the results support the hypothesis that organic fields act as reservoirs for the re-colonization of conventional fields, but only when cultivation intensity is low. These results show the importance of non-cultivated areas and of low intensity organic managed areas within the agricultural landscape as corridors for dispersal (also for a species typically found within fields). Hence, the hypothesis that pesticide use cannot be used as the sole predictor of agriculture's effect on wild species is supported as land structure and agricultural intensity can be just as important. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: The importance of Plasmodium vivax in malaria elimination is increasingly being recognized, yet little is known about its population size and population genetic structure in the South Pacific, an area that is the focus of intensified malaria control. Methods: We have genotyped 13 microsatellite markers in 295 P. vivax isolates from four geographically distinct sites in Papua New Guinea (PNG) and one site from Solomon Islands, representing different transmission intensities. Results: Diversity was very high with expected heterozygosity values ranging from 0.62 to 0.98 for the different markers. Effective population size was high (12′872 to 19′533 per site). In PNG population structuring was limited with moderate levels of genetic differentiation. FST values (adjusted for high diversity of markers) were 0.14–0.15. Slightly higher levels were observed between PNG populations and Solomon Islands (FST = 0.16). Conclusions: Low levels of population structure despite geographical barriers to transmission are in sharp contrast to results from regions of low P. vivax endemicity. Prior to intensification of malaria control programs in the study area, parasite diversity and effective population size remained high. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mistletoes are aerial hemiparasitic plants which occupy patches of favorable habitat (host trees) surrounded by unfavorable habitat and may be possibly modeled as a metapopulation. A metapopulation is defined as a subdivided population that persists due to the balance between colonization and extinction in discrete habitat patches. Our aim was to evaluate the dynamics of the mistletoe Psittacanthus robustus and its host Vochysia thyrsoidea in three Brazilian savanna areas using a metapopulation approach. We also evaluated how the differences in terms of fire occurrence affected the dynamic of those populations (two areas burned during the study and one was fire protected). We monitored the populations at six-month intervals. P. robustus population structure and dynamics met the expected criteria for a metapopulation: i) the suitable habitats for the mistletoe occur in discrete patches; (ii) local populations went extinct during the study and (iii) colonization of previously non-occupied patches occurred. The ratio of occupied patches decreased in all areas with time. Local mistletoe populations went extinct due to two different causes: patch extinction in area with no fire and fire killing in the burned areas. In a burned area, the largest decrease of occupied patch ratios occurred due to a fire event that killed the parasites without, however, killing the host trees. The greatest mortality of V. thyrsoidea occurred in the area without fire. In this area, all the dead trees supported mistletoe individuals and no mortality was observed for parasite-free trees. Because P. robustus is a fire sensitive species and V. thyrsoidea is fire tolerant, P. robustus seems to increase host mortality, but its effect is lessened by periodic burning that reduces the parasite loads. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predicting the oceanic dispersal of planktonic larvae that connect scattered marine animal populations is difficult, yet crucial for management of species whose movements transcend international boundaries. Using multi-scale biophysical modeling techniques coupled with empirical estimates of larval behavior and gamete production, we predict and empirically verify spatio-temporal patterns of larval supply and describe the Caribbean-wide pattern of larval connectivity for the Caribbean spiny lobster (Panulirus argus), an iconic coral reef species whose commercial value approaches $1 billion USD annually. Our results provide long sought information needed for international cooperation in the management of marine resources by identifying lobster larval connectivity and dispersal pathways throughout the Caribbean. Moreover, we outline how large-scale fishery management could explicitly recognize metapopulation structure by considering larval transport dynamics and pelagic larval sanctuaries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]