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Background: Several studies have proposed personalized strategies based on women's individual breast cancer risk to improve the effectiveness of breast cancer screening. We designed and internally validated an individualized risk prediction model for women eligible for mammography screening., Methods: Retrospective cohort study of 121,969 women aged 50 to 69 years, screened at the long-standing population-based screening program in Spain between 1995 and 2015 and followed up until 2017. We used partly conditional Cox proportional hazards regression to estimate the adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) and individual risks for age, family history of breast cancer, previous benign breast disease, and previous mammographic features. We internally validated our model with the expected-to-observed ratio and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve., Results: During a mean follow-up of 7.5 years, 2,058 women were diagnosed with breast cancer. All three risk factors were strongly associated with breast cancer risk, with the highest risk being found among women with family history of breast cancer (aHR: 1.67), a proliferative benign breast disease (aHR: 3.02) and previous calcifications (aHR: 2.52). The model was well calibrated overall (expected-to-observed ratio ranging from 0.99 at 2 years to 1.02 at 20 years) but slightly overestimated the risk in women with proliferative benign breast disease. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve ranged from 58.7% to 64.7%, depending of the time horizon selected., Conclusions: We developed a risk prediction model to estimate the short- and long-term risk of breast cancer in women eligible for mammography screening using information routinely reported at screening participation. The model could help to guiding individualized screening strategies aimed at improving the risk-benefit balance of mammography screening programs., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Background: The effectiveness of breast cancer screening is still under debate. Our objective was to systematically review studies assessing personalized breast cancer screening strategies based on women's individual risk and to conduct a risk of bias assessment., Methods: We followed the standard methods of The Cochrane Collaboration and PRISMA declaration and searched the MEDLINE, EMBASE and Clinical Trials databases for studies published in English. The quality of the studies was assessed using the ISPOR-AMCP-NPC Questionnaire and The Cochrane Risk of Bias Tool. Two independent reviewers screened full texts and evaluated the risk of bias., Results: Out of the 1533 initially retrieved citations, we included 13 studies. Three studies were randomized controlled trials, while nine were mathematical modeling studies, and one was an observational pilot study. The trials are in the recruitment phase and have not yet reported their results. All three trials used breast density and age to define risk groups, and two of them included family history, previous biopsies, and genetic information. Among the mathematical modeling studies, the main risk factors used to define risk groups were breast density, age, family history, and previous biopsies. Six studies used genetic information to define risk groups. The most common outcome measures were the gain in quality-adjusted life years (QALY), absolute costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), while the main outcome in the observational study was the detection rate. In all models, personalized screening strategies were shown to be effective. The randomized trials were of good quality. The modeling studies showed moderate risk of bias but there was wide variability across studies. The observational study showed a low risk of bias but its utility was moderate due to its pilot design and its relatively small scale., Conclusions: There is some evidence of the effectiveness of screening personalization in terms of QUALYs and ICER from the modeling studies and the observational study. However, evidence is lacking on feasibility and acceptance by the target population., Review Registration: PROSPERO: CRD42018110483., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist

Background: In Spain, women invited to breast screening are not usually informed about potential harms of screening. The objective of the InforMa study is to assess the effect of receiving information about the benefits and harms of breast screening on informed choice and other decision-making outcomes, in women approaching the age of invitation to mammography screening., Methods: Two-stage randomised controlled trial. In the first stage, 40 elementary territorial units of the public healthcare system were selected and randomised to intervention or control. In the second stage, women aged 49-50 years were randomly selected. The target sample size was 400 women. Women in the intervention arm received a decision aid (DA) with detailed information on the benefits and harms of screening. Women in the control arm received a standard leaflet that did not mention harms and recommended accepting the invitation to participate in the Breast Cancer Screening Program (BCSP). The primary outcome was informed choice, defined as adequate knowledge and intentions consistent with attitudes. Secondary outcomes included decisional conflict, worry about breast cancer, time perspective, opinions about the DA or the leaflet, and participation in the BCSP., Results: In the intervention group, 23.2% of 203 women made an informed choice compared to only 0.5% of 197 women in the control group (p < 0.001). Attitudes and intentions were similar in both study groups with a high frequency of women intending to be screened, 82.8% vs 82.2% (p = 0.893). Decisional conflict was significantly lower in the intervention group. No differences were observed in confidence in the decision, anxiety, and participation in BCSP., Conclusions: Women in Spain lack knowledge on the benefits and harms of breast screening. Providing quantitative information on benefits and harms has produced a considerable increase in knowledge and informed choice, with a high acceptance of the informative materials., Trial Registration: Trial identifier NCT03046004 at ClinicalTrials.gov registry. Registered on February 4 2017. Trial name: InforMa study., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Bluetongue (BT) is a viral disease that affects ruminants and is transmitted by midges of the genus Culicoides spp. The seroprevalence, the clinical form and the occurrence rates significantly differ in relation to several factors such as bluetongue virus (BTV) serotype, host species, breed susceptibility, specific previous exposure, vector ecology, husbandry and health status. Following the 2001-2006 BTV2 and BTV16 epidemics in central Italy, a new epidemic caused by BTV1 occurred in 2013-2015 causing 398 outbreaks in a susceptible population of about 1 million ruminants. The present study assessed the BTV1 seroprevalence in the sheep population of central Italy by conducting two cross-sectional surveys, in the proximity of and within BT outbreak farms. A total of 2,984 sheep from 437 farms were sampled. The animal-level prevalence was 19% (95% CI: 17-21%), the between-herd prevalence was 46% (95% CI: 41-51%) and the within-herd prevalence was 21% (95% CI: 16-26%). Risk factors were investigated by logistic regression models. Living on a farm where an outbreak occurred and the number of outbreaks in proximity of the farm were identified as risk factors, while herd size was identified as a protective factor. This study represents the first BT survey in southern Europe and reports valuable findings on BTV epidemiology. Despite intensive virus circulation, the estimated seroprevalences were low. The assessment of the population immunity level is crucial for defining an efficient vaccination strategy and for predicting the impact of future virus circulation. In view of the low seroprevalence detected albeit an extensive BTV1 circulation, the population immunity was likely to be inadequate in preventing new BTV1 epidemics. Moreover, considering the recurrent introduction of new serotypes from North Africa and the Balkans, the control of multi-serotype BTV infections will continue to present a challenge in the near future., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Background: Screening with faecal occult blood tests reduces colorectal cancer-related mortality; however, age, sex and socioeconomic factors affect screening outcomes and could lead to unequal mortality benefits. The aim of this study was to describe the main outcomes of the population-based Barcelona colorectal cancer screening programme (BCRCSP) by deprivation., Methods: Retrospective study of the eligible population of the first round of the BCRCSP. Participants' postal addresses were linked with the MEDEA database to obtain the deprivation quintiles (Dq). Chi-squared tests were used to compare proportions across variables and logistic regression was used to estimate the adjusted effects of age, sex and deprivation on uptake, FIT positivity, colonoscopy adherence and advanced neoplasia detection rate., Results: Overall uptake was 44.7%, higher in Dq2, 3 and 4 (OR 1.251, 1.250 and 1.276, respectively) than in the least deprived quintile (Dq 1), and lowest in Dq5 (OR 0.84). Faecal immunochemical test (FIT) positivity and the percentage of people with detectable faecal haemoglobin below the positivity threshold increased with deprivation. The advanced neoplasia detection rate was highest in Dq4., Conclusion: Unlike most regions where inequalities are graded along the socioeconomic continuum, inequalities in the uptake of colorectal cancer screening in Spain seem to be concentrated first in the most disadvantaged group and second in the least deprived group. The correlation of deprivation with FIT-positivity and faecal haemoglobin below the positivity threshold is worrying due to its association with colorectal cancer and overall mortality.

Aim: To calculate the incremental cost of nosocomial bacteremia caused by the most common organisms, classified by their antimicrobial susceptibility., Methods: We selected patients who developed nosocomial bacteremia caused by Staphylococcus aureus, Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae, or Pseudomonas aeruginosa. These microorganisms were analyzed because of their high prevalence and they frequently present multidrug resistance. A control group consisted of patients classified within the same all-patient refined-diagnosis related group without bacteremia. Our hospital has an established cost accounting system (full-costing) that uses activity-based criteria to analyze cost distribution. A logistic regression model was fitted to estimate the probability of developing bacteremia for each admission (propensity score) and was used for propensity score matching adjustment. Subsequently, the propensity score was included in an econometric model to adjust the incremental cost of patients who developed bacteremia, as well as differences in this cost, depending on whether the microorganism was multidrug-resistant or multidrug-sensitive., Results: A total of 571 admissions with bacteremia matched the inclusion criteria and 82,022 were included in the control group. The mean cost was € 25,891 for admissions with bacteremia and € 6,750 for those without bacteremia. The mean incremental cost was estimated at € 15,151 (CI, € 11,570 to € 18,733). Multidrug-resistant P. aeruginosa bacteremia had the highest mean incremental cost, € 44,709 (CI, € 34,559 to € 54,859). Antimicrobial-susceptible E. coli nosocomial bacteremia had the lowest mean incremental cost, € 10,481 (CI, € 8,752 to € 12,210). Despite their lower cost, episodes of antimicrobial-susceptible E. coli nosocomial bacteremia had a major impact due to their high frequency., Conclusions: Adjustment of hospital cost according to the organism causing bacteremia and antibiotic sensitivity could improve prevention strategies and allow their prioritization according to their overall impact and costs. Infection reduction is a strategy to reduce resistance.

Ants use various communication channels to regulate their social organisation. The main channel that drives almost all the ants' activities and behaviours is the chemical one, but it is long acknowledged that the acoustic channel also plays an important role. However, very little is known regarding exploitation of the acoustical channel by myrmecophile parasites to infiltrate the ant society. Among social parasites, the ant nest beetles (Paussus) are obligate myrmecophiles able to move throughout the colony at will and prey on the ants, surprisingly never eliciting aggression from the colonies. It has been recently postulated that stridulatory organs in Paussus might be evolved as an acoustic mechanism to interact with ants. Here, we survey the role of acoustic signals employed in the Paussus beetle-Pheidole ant system. Ants parasitised by Paussus beetles produce caste-specific stridulations. We found that Paussus can "speak" three different "languages", each similar to sounds produced by different ant castes (workers, soldiers, queen). Playback experiments were used to test how host ants respond to the sounds emitted by Paussus. Our data suggest that, by mimicking the stridulations of the queen, Paussus is able to dupe the workers of its host and to be treated as royalty. This is the first report of acoustic mimicry in a beetle parasite of ants.

Aims: Activation of Ca2+/Calmodulin protein kinase II (CaMKII) is an important step in signaling of cardiac hypertrophy. The molecular mechanisms by which CaMKII integrates with other pathways in the heart are incompletely understood. We hypothesize that CaMKII association with extracellular regulated kinase (ERK), promotes cardiac hypertrophy through ERK nuclear localization., Methods and Results: In H9C2 cardiomyoblasts, the selective CaMKII peptide inhibitor AntCaNtide, its penetratin conjugated minimal inhibitory sequence analog tat-CN17β, and the MEK/ERK inhibitor UO126 all reduce phenylephrine (PE)-mediated ERK and CaMKII activation and their interaction. Moreover, AntCaNtide or tat-CN17β pretreatment prevented PE induced CaMKII and ERK nuclear accumulation in H9C2s and reduced the hypertrophy responses. To determine the role of CaMKII in cardiac hypertrophy in vivo, spontaneously hypertensive rats were subjected to intramyocardial injections of AntCaNtide or tat-CN17β. Left ventricular hypertrophy was evaluated weekly for 3 weeks by cardiac ultrasounds. We observed that the treatment with CaMKII inhibitors induced similar but significant reduction of cardiac size, left ventricular mass, and thickness of cardiac wall. The treatment with CaMKII inhibitors caused a significant reduction of CaMKII and ERK phosphorylation levels and their nuclear localization in the heart., Conclusion: These results indicate that CaMKII and ERK interact to promote activation in hypertrophy; the inhibition of CaMKII-ERK interaction offers a novel therapeutic approach to limit cardiac hypertrophy.

Background: Interval cancers are primary breast cancers diagnosed in women after a negative screening test and before the next screening invitation. Our aim was to evaluate risk factors for interval cancer and their subtypes and to compare the risk factors identified with those associated with incident screen-detected cancers., Methods: We analyzed data from 645,764 women participating in the Spanish breast cancer screening program from 2000-2006 and followed-up until 2009. A total of 5,309 screen-detected and 1,653 interval cancers were diagnosed. Among the latter, 1,012 could be classified on the basis of findings in screening and diagnostic mammograms, consisting of 489 true interval cancers (48.2%), 235 false-negatives (23.2%), 172 minimal-signs (17.2%) and 114 occult tumors (11.3%). Information on the screening protocol and women's characteristics were obtained from the screening program registry. Cause-specific Cox regression models were used to estimate the hazard ratios (HR) of risks factors for interval cancer and incident screen-detected cancer. A multinomial regression model, using screen-detected tumors as a reference group, was used to assess the effect of breast density and other factors on the occurrence of interval cancer subtypes., Results: A previous false-positive was the main risk factor for interval cancer (HR = 2.71, 95%CI: 2.28-3.23); this risk was higher for false-negatives (HR = 8.79, 95%CI: 6.24-12.40) than for true interval cancer (HR = 2.26, 95%CI: 1.59-3.21). A family history of breast cancer was associated with true intervals (HR = 2.11, 95%CI: 1.60-2.78), previous benign biopsy with a false-negatives (HR = 1.83, 95%CI: 1.23-2.71). High breast density was mainly associated with occult tumors (RRR = 4.92, 95%CI: 2.58-9.38), followed by true intervals (RRR = 1.67, 95%CI: 1.18-2.36) and false-negatives (RRR = 1.58, 95%CI: 1.00-2.49)., Conclusion: The role of women's characteristics differs among interval cancer subtypes. This information could be useful to improve effectiveness of breast cancer screening programmes and to better classify subgroups of women with different risks of developing cancer.

Objective: To assess the budgetary impact of switching from screen-film mammography to full-field digital mammography in a population-based breast cancer screening program., Methods: A discrete-event simulation model was built to reproduce the breast cancer screening process (biennial mammographic screening of women aged 50 to 69 years) combined with the natural history of breast cancer. The simulation started with 100,000 women and, during a 20-year simulation horizon, new women were dynamically entered according to the aging of the Spanish population. Data on screening were obtained from Spanish breast cancer screening programs. Data on the natural history of breast cancer were based on US data adapted to our population. A budget impact analysis comparing digital with screen-film screening mammography was performed in a sample of 2,000 simulation runs. A sensitivity analysis was performed for crucial screening-related parameters. Distinct scenarios for recall and detection rates were compared., Results: Statistically significant savings were found for overall costs, treatment costs and the costs of additional tests in the long term. The overall cost saving was 1,115,857€ (95%CI from 932,147 to 1,299,567) in the 10th year and 2,866,124€ (95%CI from 2,492,610 to 3,239,638) in the 20th year, representing 4.5% and 8.1% of the overall cost associated with screen-film mammography. The sensitivity analysis showed net savings in the long term., Conclusions: Switching to digital mammography in a population-based breast cancer screening program saves long-term budget expense, in addition to providing technical advantages. Our results were consistent across distinct scenarios representing the different results obtained in European breast cancer screening programs.

About 10,000 arthropods live as ants' social parasites and have evolved a number of mechanisms allowing them to penetrate and survive inside the ant nests. Many of them can intercept and manipulate their host communication systems. This is particularly important for butterflies of the genus Maculinea, which spend the majority of their lifecycle inside Myrmica ant nests. Once in the colony, caterpillars of Maculinea "predatory species" directly feed on the ant larvae, while those of "cuckoo species" are fed primarily by attendance workers, by trophallaxis. It has been shown that Maculinea cuckoo larvae are able to reach a higher social status within the colony's hierarchy by mimicking the acoustic signals of their host queen ants. In this research we tested if, when and how myrmecophilous butterflies may change sound emissions depending on their integration level and on stages of their life cycle. We studied how a Maculinea predatory species (M. teleius) can acoustically interact with their host ants and highlighted differences with respect to a cuckoo species (M. alcon). We recorded sounds emitted by Maculinea larvae as well as by their Myrmica hosts, and performed playback experiments to assess the parasites' capacity to interfere with the host acoustic communication system. We found that, although varying between and within butterfly species, the larval acoustic emissions are more similar to queens' than to workers' stridulations. Nevertheless playback experiments showed that ant workers responded most strongly to the sounds emitted by the integrated (i.e. post-adoption) larvae of the cuckoo species, as well as by those of predatory species recorded before any contact with the host ants (i.e. in pre-adoption), thereby revealing the role of acoustic signals both in parasite integration and in adoption rituals. We discuss our findings in the broader context of parasite adaptations, comparing effects of acoustical and chemical mimicry.

Objective: Familial longevity is marked by enhanced peripheral but not hepatic insulin sensitivity. The liver has a critical role in the pathogenesis of hepatic insulin resistance. Therefore we hypothesized that the extent of liver steatosis would be similar between offspring of long-lived siblings and control subjects. To test our hypothesis, we investigated the extent of liver steatosis in non-diabetic offspring of long-lived siblings and age-matched controls by measuring liver enzymes in plasma and liver fat by computed tomography (CT)., Research Design and Methods: We measured nonfasting alanine transaminase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), and Υ-glutamyl transferase (GGT) in 1625 subjects (736 men, mean age 59.1 years) from the Leiden Longevity Study, comprising offspring of long-lived siblings and partners thereof. In a random subgroup, fasting serum samples (n = 230) were evaluated and CT was performed (n = 268) for assessment of liver-spleen (L/S) ratio and the prevalence of moderate-to-severe non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Linear mixed model analysis was performed adjusting for age, gender, body mass index, smoking, use of alcohol and hepatotoxic medication, and correlation of sibling relationship., Results: Offspring of long-lived siblings had higher nonfasting ALT levels as compared to control subjects (24.3 mmol/L versus 23.2 mmol/L, p = 0.03), while AST and GGT levels were similar between the two groups. All fasting liver enzyme levels were similar between the two groups. CT L/S ratio and prevalence of moderate-to-severe NAFLD was similar between groups (1.12 vs 1.14, p = 0.25 and 8% versus 8%, p = 0.91, respectively)., Conclusions: Except for nonfasting levels of ALT, which were slightly higher in the offspring of long-lived siblings compared to controls, no differences were found between groups in the extent of liver steatosis, as assessed with liver biochemical tests and CT. Thus, our data indicate that the extent of liver steatosis is similar between offspring of long-lived siblings and control subjects.

The one-size-fits-all paradigm in organized screening of breast cancer is shifting towards a personalized approach. The present study has two objectives: 1) To perform an economic evaluation and to assess the harm-benefit ratios of screening strategies that vary in their intensity and interval ages based on breast cancer risk; and 2) To estimate the gain in terms of cost and harm reductions using risk-based screening with respect to the usual practice. We used a probabilistic model and input data from Spanish population registries and screening programs, as well as from clinical studies, to estimate the benefit, harm, and costs over time of 2,624 screening strategies, uniform or risk-based. We defined four risk groups, low, moderate-low, moderate-high and high, based on breast density, family history of breast cancer and personal history of breast biopsy. The risk-based strategies were obtained combining the exam periodicity (annual, biennial, triennial and quinquennial), the starting ages (40, 45 and 50 years) and the ending ages (69 and 74 years) in the four risk groups. Incremental cost-effectiveness and harm-benefit ratios were used to select the optimal strategies. Compared to risk-based strategies, the uniform ones result in a much lower benefit for a specific cost. Reductions close to 10% in costs and higher than 20% in false-positive results and overdiagnosed cases were obtained for risk-based strategies. Optimal screening is characterized by quinquennial or triennial periodicities for the low or moderate risk-groups and annual periodicity for the high-risk group. Risk-based strategies can reduce harm and costs. It is necessary to develop accurate measures of individual risk and to work on how to implement risk-based screening strategies.

Yeasts are largely used as bioreactors for vaccine production. Usually, antigens are produced in yeast then purified and mixed with adjuvants before immunization. However, the purification costs and the safety concerns recently raised by the use of new adjuvants argue for alternative strategies. To this end, the use of whole yeast as both production and delivery system appears attractive. Here, we evaluated Pichia pastoris yeast as an alternative vaccine production and delivery system for the circumsporozoite protein (CS) of Plasmodium, the etiologic agent of malaria. The CS protein from Plasmodium berghei (Pb) was selected given the availability of the stringent C57Bl/6 mouse model of infection by Pb sporozoites, allowing the evaluation of vaccine efficacy in vivo. PbCS was multimerized by fusion to the measles virus (MV) nucleoprotein (N) known to auto-assemble in yeast in large-size ribonucleoprotein rods (RNPs). Expressed in P. pastoris, the N-PbCS protein generated highly multimeric and heterogenic RNPs bearing PbCS on their surface. Electron microscopy and immunofluorescence analyses revealed the shape of these RNPs and their localization in peripheral cytoplasmic inclusions. Subcutaneous immunization of C57Bl/6 mice with heat-inactivated whole P. pastoris expressing N-PbCS RNPs provided significant reduction of parasitemia after intradermal challenge with a high dose of parasites. Thus, in the absence of accessory adjuvants, a very low amount of PbCS expressed in whole yeast significantly decreased clinical damages associated with Pb infection in a highly stringent challenge model, providing a proof of concept of the intrinsic adjuvancy of this vaccine strategy. In addition to PbCS multimerization, the N protein contributed by itself to parasitemia delay and long-term mice survival. In the future, mixtures of whole recombinant yeasts expressing relevant Plasmodium antigens would provide a multivalent formulation applicable for antigen combination screening and possibly for large-scale production, distribution and delivery of a malaria vaccine in developing countries.

Background: Breast cancer incidence has decreased in the last decade, while the incidence of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) has increased substantially in the western world. The phenomenon has been attributed to the widespread adaption of screening mammography. The aim of the study was to evaluate the temporal trends in the rates of screen detected invasive cancers and DCIS, and to compare the observed trends with respect to hormone replacement therapy (HRT) use along the same study period., Methods: Retrospective cohort study of 1,564,080 women aged 45-69 years who underwent 4,705,681 screening mammograms from 1992 to 2006. Age-adjusted rates of screen detected invasive cancer, DCIS, and HRT use were calculated for first and subsequent screenings. Poisson regression was used to evaluate the existence of a change-point in trend, and to estimate the adjusted trends in screen detected invasive breast cancer and DCIS over the study period., Results: The rates of screen detected invasive cancer per 100.000 screened women were 394.0 at first screening, and 229.9 at subsequent screen. The rates of screen detected DCIS per 100.000 screened women were 66.8 at first screen and 43.9 at subsequent screens. No evidence of a change point in trend in the rates of DCIS and invasive cancers over the study period were found. Screen detected DCIS increased at a steady 2.5% per year (95% CI: 1.3; 3.8), while invasive cancers were stable., Conclusion: Despite the observed decrease in breast cancer incidence in the population, the rates of screen detected invasive cancer remained stable during the study period. The proportion of DCIS among screen detected breast malignancies increased from 13% to 17% throughout the study period. The rates of screen detected invasive cancer and DCIS were independent of the decreasing trend in HRT use observed among screened women after 2002.

Even though hepatitis A mass vaccination effectiveness is high, outbreaks continue to occur. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between duration and characteristics of hepatitis A outbreaks. Hepatitis A (HA) outbreaks reported between 1991 and 2007 were studied. An outbreak was defined as ≥2 epidemiologically-linked cases with ≥1 case laboratory-confirmed by detection of HA immunoglobulin M (IgM) antibodies. Relationships between explanatory variables and outbreak duration were assessed by logistic regression. During the study period, 268 outbreaks (rate 2.45 per million persons-year) and 1396 cases (rate 1.28 per 10(5) persons-year) were reported. Factors associated with shorter duration were time to intervention (OR = 0.96; 95% CI: 0.94-0.98) and school setting (OR = 0.39; 95% CI: 0.16-0.92). In person-to-person transmission outbreaks only time to intervention was associated with shorter outbreak duration (OR = 0.96; 95% CI: 0.95-0.98). The only variables associated with shorter outbreak duration were early administration of IG or vaccine and a school setting. Timely reporting HA outbreaks was associated with outbreak duration. Making confirmed HA infections statutory reportable for clinical laboratories could diminish outbreak duration.