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IntroductionAcute respiratory illness (ARI) is a leading cause of mortality in children under 5 (CU5) in Malawi and can be prevented with 3-dose pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV). There has been no national study in Malawi that seeks to associate social economic factors leading to PCV vaccine uptake and reported acute respiratory infections (RARI). The objectives of our study were to do this.MethodsWe conducted a cross-sectional analysis of secondary data from the 2014 UNICEF Malawi Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey to construct mutlivariable logistic regression models for independent associations with PCV 1/2/3 immunisation and RARI.Results56% of CU5 in Malawi RARI in the 2 week recall period of the survey. Independent associations with reduced odds of RARI were central region living (OR 0.82, 95%CI (0.71-0.93)) middle (OR 0.84, (0.73-0.97)) fourth (OR 0.79, (0.68-0.92)) and richest wealth quintiles (OR 0.73, (0.60-0.88)). Using straw/shrubs for fuel was associated with increased RARI (OR 3.13, (1.00-9.79)). Among 1-36 month olds, in 2014, 93.3% received PCV1, 86.8% PCV2 and 77.0% PCV3. Between 2011-2014, the average age in months for a child to receive PCV1/2/3 reduced by 26.6 for PCV1, 26.4 for PCV2, and 26.1 for PCV 3. Independent predicators for increased odds of all 3 PCV doses, relative to 0-5 age group, were age group 6-11 (OR 21.8, (18.2-26.1) 12-23 (OR 27.5, (23.5-32.2) 24-36 months (OR 9.09, (7.89-10.5), mothers having a secondary (OR 1.52, (1.25-1.84)) or higher education (OR 2.68, (1.43-5.04) when compared to no education, and children in the middle (OR 1.24, (1.07-1.43)) fourth (OR 1.27, (1.09-1.48)) richest (OR 1.54, (1.27-1.88)) wealth quintiles relative to the lowest. Children living with 4-6 other children was independently associated with reduced odds of receiving all 3 PCV doses (OR 0.56, (0.33-0.96).ConclusionWe report nationally representative social economic associations with RARI and PCV vaccine uptake and coverage estimates. We found reductions in the average age a child receives all 3 PCV vaccine doses between 2011-2014.

BackgroundDespite great achievements by insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS) in reducing malaria transmission, it is unlikely these tools will be sufficient to eliminate malaria transmission on their own in many settings today. Fortunately, field experiments indicate that there are many promising vector control interventions that can be used to complement ITNs and/or IRS by targeting a wide range of biological and environmental mosquito resources. The majority of these experiments were performed to test a single vector control intervention in isolation; however, there is growing evidence and consensus that effective vector control with the goal of malaria elimination will require a combination of interventions.Method and findingsWe have developed a model of mosquito population dynamic to describe the mosquito life and feeding cycles and to optimize the impact of vector control intervention combinations at suppressing mosquito populations. The model simulations were performed for the main three malaria vectors in sub-Saharan Africa, Anopheles gambiae s.s, An. arabiensis and An. funestus. We considered areas having low, moderate and high malaria transmission, corresponding to entomological inoculation rates of 10, 50 and 100 infective bites per person per year, respectively. In all settings, we considered baseline ITN coverage of 50% or 80% in addition to a range of other vector control tools to interrupt malaria transmission. The model was used to sweep through parameters space to select the best optimal intervention packages. Sample model simulations indicate that, starting with ITNs at a coverage of 50% (An. gambiae s.s. and An. funestus) or 80% (An. arabiensis) and adding interventions that do not require human participation (e.g. larviciding at 80% coverage, endectocide treated cattle at 50% coverage and attractive toxic sugar baits at 50% coverage) may be sufficient to suppress all the three species to an extent required to achieve local malaria elimination.ConclusionThe Vector Control Optimization Model (VCOM) is a computational tool to predict the impact of combined vector control interventions at the mosquito population level in a range of eco-epidemiological settings. The model predicts specific combinations of vector control tools to achieve local malaria elimination in a range of eco-epidemiological settings and can assist researchers and program decision-makers on the design of experimental or operational research to test vector control interventions. A corresponding graphical user interface is available for national malaria control programs and other end users.

Increased preoperative red cell distribution width (RDW) is associated with higher mortality following non-cardiac surgery in patients older than 65 years. Little is known if this association holds for all adult emergency laparotomy patients and whether it affects 30-day or long-term mortality. Thus, we examined the relationship between increased RDW and postoperative mortality. Furthermore, we investigated the prognostic worth of anisocytosis and explored a possible association between increased RDW and frailty in this cohort. We conducted a retrospective, single centre National Emergency Laparotomy Audit (NELA) database study at St Mary's Hospital Imperial NHS Trust between January 2014 and April 2018. A total of 356 patients were included. Survival models were developed using Cox regression analysis, whereas RDW and frailty were analysed using multivariable logistic regression. Underlying model assumptions were checked, including discrimination and calibration. We internally validated our models using bootstrap resampling. There were 33 (9.3%) deaths within 30-days and 72 (20.2%) overall. Median RDW values for 30-day mortality were 13.8% (IQR 13.1%-15%) in survivors and 14.9% (IQR 13.7%-16.1%) in non-survivors, p = 0.007. Similarly, median RDW values were lower in overall survivors (13.7% (IQR 13%-14.7%) versus 14.9% (IQR 13.9%-15.9%) (p

Clinical adoption of immune checkpoint inhibitors in cancer management has highlighted the interconnection between carcinogenesis and the immune system. Immune cells are integral to the tumour microenvironment and can influence the outcome of therapies. Better understanding of an individual’s immune landscape may play an important role in treatment personalisation. Peripheral blood is a readily accessible source of information to study an individual’s immune landscape compared to more complex and invasive tumour bioipsies, and may hold immense diagnostic and prognostic potential. Identifying the critical components of these immune signatures in peripheral blood presents an attractive alternative to tumour biopsy-based immune phenotyping strategies. We used two syngeneic solid tumour models, a 4T1 breast cancer model and a CT26 colorectal cancer model, in a longitudinal study of the peripheral blood immune landscape. Our strategy combined two highly accessible approaches, blood leukocyte immune phenotyping and plasma soluble immune factor characterisation, to identify distinguishing immune signatures of the CT26 and 4T1 tumour models using machine learning. Myeloid cells, specifically neutrophils and PD-L1-expressing myeloid cells, were found to correlate with tumour size in both the models. Elevated levels of G-CSF, IL-6 and CXCL13, and B cell counts were associated with 4T1 growth, whereas CCL17, CXCL10, total myeloid cells, CCL2, IL-10, CXCL1, and Ly6Cintermediate monocytes were associated with CT26 tumour development. Peripheral blood appears to be an accessible means to interrogate tumour-dependent changes to the host immune landscape, and to identify blood immune phenotypes for future treatment stratification.

Introduction: Digitisation of patient records, coupled with a moral imperative to use routinely collected data for research, necessitate effective data governance that both facilitates evidence-based research and minimises associated risks. The Generalisable Overview of Study Risk for Lead Investigators Needing Guidance (GOSLING) provides the first quantitative risk-measure for assessing the data-related risks of clinical research projects. Methods: GOSLING employs a self-assessment designed to standardise risk assessment, considering various domains, including data type, security measures, and public co-production. The tool categorises projects into low, medium, and high-risk tiers based on a scoring system developed with the input of patient and public members. It was validated using both real and synthesised project proposals to ensure its effectiveness at triaging the risk of requests for health data. Results: The tool effectively distinguished between fifteen low, medium, and high-risk projects in testing, aligning with subjective expert assessments. An interactive interface and an open-access policy for the tool encourage researchers to self-evaluate and mitigate risks prior to submission for data governance review. Initial testing demonstrated its potential to streamline the review process by identifying projects that may require less scrutiny or those that pose significant risks. Discussion: GOSLING represents the first quantitative approach to measuring study risk, answering calls for standardised risk assessments in using health data for research. Its implementation could contribute to advancing ethical data use, enhancing research transparency, and promoting public trust. Future work will focus on expanding its applicability and exploring its impact on research efficiency and data governance practices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Endorheic lakes, lacking river outflows, are highly sensitive to environmental changes and human interventions. Central Asia (CA) has over 6000 lakes that have experienced substantial water level variability in the past century, yet causes of recent changes in many lakes remain unexplored. Modelling hydrological processes for CA lakes poses challenges in separating climatic change impacts from human management impacts due to limited data and long-term variability in hydrological regimes. This study developed a spatially lumped empirical model to investigate the effects of climate change and human water abstraction, using Shortandy Lake in Burabay National Nature Park (BNNP) as a case study. Modelling results show a significant water volume decline from 231.7x106m3 in 1986 to 172.5x106m3 in 2016, primarily driven by anthropogenic water abstraction, accounting for 92% of the total volume deficit. The highest rates of water abstraction (greater than 25% of annual outflow) occurred from 1989 to 1993, coinciding with the driest period. Since 2013, the water volume has increased due to increased precipitation and, more importantly, reduced water abstraction. Despite limited observational data with which to calibrate the model, it performs well. Our analysis underscores the challenges in modelling lakes in data-sparse regions such as CA, and highlights the importance and benefits of developing lake water balance models for the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Few studies exist that document how high-elevation Andean ecosystems recover naturally after the cessation of human activities and this can limit the implementation of cost-effective restoration actions. We assessed Andean forest (Polylepis stands) and páramo grassland recovery along an elevation gradient (3,600-4,350 m.a.s.l.) in the Yanacocha Reserve (Ecuador) where natural recovery has been allowed since 1995. Within the Yanacocha Reserve in 2012 and 2014 the aboveground biomass (AGB), aboveground necromass (AGN) and belowground biomass (BGB) carbon (C) stocks were measured and C sequestration rates calculated as proxy of ecosystem recovery. The soil organic carbon (SOC) stock to 36-cm depth was also quantified during the 2012 survey. To explore potential drivers of spatiotemporal variation of the forest and páramo C stocks they were related to abiotic and biotic variables. Andean forest C stocks were influenced mainly by disturbance history and tree-species composition. Páramo C stocks´ spatial variation were related to the elevation gradient; we found a positive significant trend in páramo AGB-C stocks with elevation, whereas we found a significant negative trend in AGN-C stocks. Likewise, significant temporal changes were found for AGB-C and AGN-C stocks. Net increases in AGB-C stocks were the largest in the Andean forest and páramo, 2.5 Mg C ha-1 year-1 and 1.5 Mg C ha-1 year-1 respectively. Carbon sequestration rates were partly explained by environmental variables. In the Andean forest, plots with low dominance of Baccharis padifolia were observed to present higher AGB-C and lower BGB-C sequestration rates. In the páramo, higher sequestration rates for AGB-C were found at higher elevations and associated with higher levels of growth-forms diversity. Temporal changes in BGB-C stocks on the contrary were non-significant. Our results indicated that terrestrial aboveground C sequestration rates might be an appropriate indicator for assessing Andean forest and páramo recovery after human disturbance.

BACKGROUND:Reactive case detection (RACD) around passively detected malaria cases is a strategy to identify and treat hotspots of malaria transmission. This study investigated the unproven assumption on which this approach is based, that in low transmission settings, infections cluster over small scales. METHODS:A prospective case-control study was conducted between January 2013 and August 2014 in Ohangwena and Omusati regions in north central Namibia. Patients attending health facilities who tested positive by malaria rapid diagnostic test (RDT) (index cases) were traced back to their home. All occupants of index case households (n = 116 households) and surrounding households (n = 225) were screened for Plasmodium infection with a rapid diagnostic test (RDT) and loop mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) and interviewed to identify risk factors. A comparison group of 286 randomly-selected control households was also screened, to compare infection levels of RACD and non-RACD households and their neighbours. Logistic regression was used to investigate spatial clustering of patent and sub-patent infections around index cases and to identify potential risk factors that would inform screening approaches and identify risk groups. Estimates of the impact of RACD on onward transmission to mosquitoes was made using previously published figures of infection rates. RESULTS:Prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum infection by LAMP was 3.4%, 1.4% and 0.4% in index-case households, neighbors of index case households and control households respectively; adjusted odds ratio 6.1 [95%CI 1.9-19.5] comparing case households versus control households. Using data from Engela, neighbors of cases had higher odds of infection [adjusted OR 5.0 95%CI 1.3-18.9] compared to control households. All infections identified by RDTs were afebrile and RDTs identified only a small proportion of infections in case (n = 7; 17%) and control (0%) neighborhoods. Based on published estimates of patent and sub-patent infectiousness, these results suggest that infections missed by RDTs during RACD would allow 50-71% of infections to mosquitoes to occur in this setting. CONCLUSION:Malaria infections cluster around passively detected cases. The majority of infections are asymptomatic and of densities below the limit of detection of current RDTs. RACD using standard RDTs are unlikely to detect enough malaria infections to dramatically reduce transmission. In low transmission settings such as Namibia more sensitive field diagnostics or forms of focal presumptive treatment should be tested as strategies to reduce malaria transmission.

Chlorproguanil-dapsone (CD) has been linked to hemolysis in symptomatic glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficient (G6PDd) children. Few studies have explored the effects of G6PD status on hemolysis in children treated with Intermittent Preventive Treatment in infants (IPTi) antimalarial regimens. We sought to examine the joint effects of G6PD status and IPTi antimalarial treatment on incidence of hemolysis in asymptomatic children treated with CD, sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP), and mefloquine (MQ).A secondary analysis of data from a double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of IPTi was conducted. Hemoglobin (Hb) measurements were made at IPTi doses, regular follow-up and emergency visits. G6PD genotype was determined at 9 months looking for SNPs for the A- genotype at coding position 202. Multivariable linear and logistic regression models were used to examine hemolysis among children with valid G6PD genotyping results. Hemolysis was defined as the absolute change in Hb or as any post-dose Hb

The human prostacyclin receptor (hIP receptor) is a seven-transmembrane G protein-coupled receptor (GPCR) that plays a critical role in vascular smooth muscle relaxation and platelet aggregation. hIP receptor dysfunction has been implicated in numerous cardiovascular abnormalities, including myocardial infarction, hypertension, thrombosis and atherosclerosis. Genomic sequencing has discovered several genetic variations in the PTGIR gene coding for hIP receptor, however, its structure-function relationship has not been sufficiently explored. Here we set out to investigate the applicability of high throughput random mutagenesis to study the structure-function relationship of hIP receptor. While chemical mutagenesis was not suitable to generate a mutagenesis library with sufficient coverage, our data demonstrate error-prone PCR (epPCR) mediated mutagenesis as a valuable method for the unbiased screening of residues regulating hIP receptor function and expression. Here we describe the generation and functional characterization of an epPCR derived mutagenesis library compromising >4000 mutants of the hIP receptor. We introduce next generation sequencing as a useful tool to validate the quality of mutagenesis libraries by providing information about the coverage, mutation rate and mutational bias. We identified 18 mutants of the hIP receptor that were expressed at the cell surface, but demonstrated impaired receptor function. A total of 38 non-synonymous mutations were identified within the coding region of the hIP receptor, mapping to 36 distinct residues, including several mutations previously reported to affect the signaling of the hIP receptor. Thus, our data demonstrates epPCR mediated random mutagenesis as a valuable and practical method to study the structure-function relationship of GPCRs.

As countries move towards malaria elimination, methods to identify infections among populations who do not seek treatment are required. Reactive case detection, whereby individuals living in close proximity to passively detected cases are screened and treated, is one approach being used by a number of countries including Swaziland. An outstanding issue is establishing the epidemiologically and operationally optimal screening radius around each passively detected index case. Using data collected between December 2009 and June 2012 from reactive case detection (RACD) activities in Swaziland, we evaluated the effect of screening radius and other risk factors on the probability of detecting cases by reactive case detection. Using satellite imagery, we also evaluated the household coverage achieved during reactive case detection. Over the study period, 250 cases triggered RACD, which identified a further 74 cases, showing the value of RACD over passive surveillance alone. Results suggest that the odds of detecting a case within the household of the index case were significantly higher than in neighbouring households (odds ratio (OR) 13, 95% CI 3.1-54.4). Furthermore, cases were more likely to be detected when RACD was conducted within a week of the index presenting at a health facility (OR 8.7, 95% CI 1.1-66.4) and if the index household had not been sprayed with insecticide (OR sprayed vs not sprayed 0.11, 95% CI 0.03-0.46). The large number of households missed during RACD indicates that a 1 km screening radius may be impractical in such resource limited settings such as Swaziland. Future RACD in Swaziland could be made more effective by achieving high coverage amongst individuals located near to index cases and in areas where spraying has not been conducted. As well as allowing the programme to implement RACD more rapidly, this would help to more precisely define the optimal screening radius.

Personality, or consistent individual differences in behavior, is well established in studies of dogs. Such consistency implies predictability of behavior, but some recent research suggests that predictability cannot be assumed. In addition, anecdotally, many dog experts believe that 'puppy tests' measuring behavior during the first year of a dog's life are not accurate indicators of subsequent adult behavior. Personality consistency in dogs is an important aspect of human-dog relationships (e.g., when selecting dogs suitable for substance-detection work or placement in a family). Here we perform the first comprehensive meta-analysis of studies reporting estimates of temporal consistency of dog personality. A thorough literature search identified 31 studies suitable for inclusion in our meta-analysis. Overall, we found evidence to suggest substantial consistency (r = 0.43). Furthermore, personality consistency was higher in older dogs, when behavioral assessment intervals were shorter, and when the measurement tool was exactly the same in both assessments. In puppies, aggression and submissiveness were the most consistent dimensions, while responsiveness to training, fearfulness, and sociability were the least consistent dimensions. In adult dogs, there were no dimension-based differences in consistency. There was no difference in personality consistency in dogs tested first as puppies and later as adults (e.g., 'puppy tests') versus dogs tested first as puppies and later again as puppies. Finally, there were no differences in consistency between working versus non-working dogs, between behavioral codings versus behavioral ratings, and between aggregate versus single measures. Implications for theory, practice, and future research are discussed.

Domesticated cattle were commonplace in northern Africa by about 7,000 years ago. Archaeological evidence, however, suggests they were not established in southern Africa until much later, no earlier than 2,000 years ago. Genetic reconstructions have started to shed light on the movement of African cattle, but efforts have been frustrated by a lack of data south of Ethiopia and the nature of the mitochondrial haplogroup T1 which is almost fixed across the continent. We sequenced 35 complete mitochondrial genomes from a South African herd of Nguni cattle, a breed historically associated with Bantu speaking farmers who were among the first to bring cattle to southern Africa. As expected, all individuals in the study were found to be members of haplogroup T1. Only half of the sub-haplogroups of T1 (T1a-T1f) are represented in our sample and the overwhelming majority (94%) in this study belong to subhaplogroup T1b. A previous study of African cattle found frequencies of T1b of 27% in Egypt and 69% in Ethiopia. These results are consistent with serial multiple founder effects significantly shaping the gene pool as cattle were moved from north to south across the continent. Interestingly, these mitochondrial data give no indication that the impacts of the founder effects were ameliorated by gene flow from recently introduced Indian cattle breeds.

Assessment of exposure to malaria vectors is important to our understanding of spatial and temporal variations in disease transmission and facilitates the targeting and evaluation of control efforts. Recently, an immunogenic Anopheles gambiae salivary protein (gSG6) was identified and proposed as the basis of an immuno-assay determining exposure to Afrotropical malaria vectors. In the present study, IgG responses to gSG6 and 6 malaria antigens (CSP, AMA-1, MSP-1, MSP-3, GLURP R1, and GLURP R2) were compared to Anopheles exposure and malaria incidence in a cohort of children from Korogwe district, Tanzania, an area of moderate and heterogeneous malaria transmission. Anti-gSG6 responses above the threshold for seropositivity were detected in 15% (96/636) of the children, and were positively associated with geographical variations in Anopheles exposure (OR 1.25, CI 1.01-1.54, p = 0.04). Additionally, IgG responses to gSG6 in individual children showed a strong positive association with household level mosquito exposure. IgG levels for all antigens except AMA-1 were associated with the frequency of malaria episodes following sampling. gSG6 seropositivity was strongly positively associated with subsequent malaria incidence (test for trend p = 0.004), comparable to malaria antigens MSP-1 and GLURP R2. Our results show that the gSG6 assay is sensitive to micro-epidemiological variations in exposure to Anopheles mosquitoes, and provides a correlate of malaria risk that is unrelated to immune protection. While the technique requires further evaluation in a range of malaria endemic settings, our findings suggest that the gSG6 assay may have a role in the evaluation and planning of targeted and preventative anti-malaria interventions.

BACKGROUND:Intermittent preventive treatment in infants (IPTi) with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) is recommended by WHO where malaria incidence in infancy is high and SP resistance is low. The current delivery strategy is via routine Expanded Program on Immunisation contacts during infancy (EPI-IPTi). However, improvements to this approach may be possible where malaria transmission is seasonal, or where the malaria burden lies mainly outside infancy. METHODS AND FINDINGS:A mathematical model was developed to estimate the protective efficacy (PE) of IPT against clinical malaria in children aged 2-24 months, using entomological and epidemiological data from an EPI-IPTi trial in Navrongo, Ghana to parameterise the model. The protection achieved by seasonally-targeted IPT in infants (sIPTi), seasonal IPT in children (sIPTc), and by case-management with long-acting artemisinin combination therapies (LA-ACTs) was predicted for Navrongo and for sites with different transmission intensity and seasonality. In Navrongo, the predicted PE of sIPTi was 26% by 24 months of age, compared to 16% with EPI-IPTi. sIPTc given to all children under 2 years would provide PE of 52% by 24 months of age. Seasonally-targeted IPT retained its advantages in a range of transmission patterns. Under certain circumstances, LA-ACTs for case-management may provide similar protection to EPI-IPTi. However, EPI-IPTi or sIPT combined with LA-ACTs would be substantially more protective than either strategy used alone. CONCLUSION:Delivery of IPT to infants via the EPI is sub-optimal because individuals are not protected by IPT at the time of highest malaria risk, and because older children are not protected. Alternative delivery strategies to the EPI are needed where transmission varies seasonally or the malaria burden extends beyond infancy. Long-acting ACTs may also make important reductions in malaria incidence. However, delivery systems must be developed to ensure that both forms of chemoprevention reach the individuals who are most exposed to malaria.

BackgroundIntermittent preventive treatment in infants (IPTi) has been shown to decrease clinical malaria by approximately 30% in the first year of life and is a promising malaria control strategy for Sub-Saharan Africa which can be delivered alongside the Expanded Programme on Immunisation (EPI). To date, there have been limited data on the cost-effectiveness of this strategy using sulfadoxine pyrimethamine (SP) and no published data on cost-effectiveness using other antimalarials.MethodsWe analysed data from 5 countries in sub-Saharan Africa using a total of 5 different IPTi drug regimens; SP, mefloquine (MQ), 3 days of chlorproguanil-dapsone (CD), SP plus 3 days of artesunate (SP-AS3) and 3 days of amodiaquine-artesunate (AQ3-AS3).The cost per malaria episode averted and cost per Disability-Adjusted Life-Year (DALY) averted were modeled using both trial specific protective efficacy (PE) for all IPTi drugs and a pooled PE for IPTi with SP, malaria incidence, an estimated malaria case fatality rate of 1.57%, IPTi delivery costs and country specific provider and household malaria treatment costs.FindingsIn sites where IPTi had a significant effect on reducing malaria, the cost per episode averted for IPTi-SP was very low, USD 1.36-4.03 based on trial specific data and USD 0.68-2.27 based on the pooled analysis. For IPTi using alternative antimalarials, the lowest cost per case averted was for AQ3-AS3 in western Kenya (USD 4.62) and the highest was for MQ in Korowge, Tanzania (USD 18.56). Where efficacious, based only on intervention costs, IPTi was shown to be cost effective in all the sites and highly cost-effective in all but one of the sites, ranging from USD 2.90 (Ifakara, Tanzania with SP) to USD 39.63 (Korogwe, Tanzania with MQ) per DALY averted. In addition, IPTi reduced health system costs and showed significant savings to households from malaria cases averted. A threshold analysis showed that there is room for the IPTi-efficacy to fall and still remain highly cost effective in all sites where IPTi had a statistically significant effect on clinical malaria.ConclusionsIPTi delivered alongside the EPI is a highly cost effective intervention against clinical malaria with a range of drugs in a range of malaria transmission settings. Where IPTi did not have a statistically significant impact on malaria, generally in low transmission sites, it was not cost effective.

BACKGROUND: Intermittent Preventive Treatment of malaria in infants using sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP-IPTi) is recommended by WHO for implementation in settings where resistance to SP is not high. Here we examine the relationship between the protective efficacy of SP-IPTi and measures of SP resistance. METHODS AND RESULTS: We analysed the relationship between protective efficacy reported in the 7 SP-IPTi trials and contemporaneous data from 6 in vivo efficacy studies using SP and 7 molecular studies reporting frequency of dhfr triple and dhps double mutations within 50 km of the trial sites. We found a borderline significant association between frequency of the dhfr triple mutation and protective efficacy to 12 months of age of SP-IPTi. This association is significantly biased due to differences between studies, namely number of doses of SP given and follow up times. However, fitting a simple probabilistic model to determine the relationship between the frequency of the dhfr triple, dhps double and dhfr/dhps quintuple mutations associated with resistance to SP and protective efficacy, we found a significant inverse relationship between the dhfr triple mutation frequency alone and the dhfr/dhps quintuple mutations and efficacy at 35 days post the 9 month dose and up to 12 months of age respectively. CONCLUSIONS: A significant relationship was found between the frequency of the dhfr triple mutation and SP-IPTi protective efficacy at 35 days post the 9 month dose. An association between the protective efficacy to 12 months of age and dhfr triple and dhfr/dhps quintuple mutations was found but should be viewed with caution due to bias. It was not possible to define a more definite relationship based on the data available from these trials.

BACKGROUND: Over diagnosis of malaria contributes to improper treatment, wastage of drugs and resistance to the few available drugs. This paper attempts to estimate the rates of over diagnosis of malaria among children attending dispensaries in rural Tanzania and examines the potential cost implications of improving the quality of diagnosis. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The magnitude of over diagnosis of malaria was estimated by comparing the proportion of outpatient attendees of all ages clinically diagnosed as malaria to the proportion of attendees having a positive malaria rapid diagnostic test over a two month period. Pattern of causes of illness observed in a or=5 year age group in the lower transmission site (RR 14.0 95%CI 8.2-24.2). In the low transmission site the proportion of morbidity attributable to malaria was substantially lower in