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BACKGROUND:The future burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) depends on numerous factors such as population ageing, evolution of societal trends, behavioural and physiological risk factors of individuals (e.g. smoking, alcohol use, obesity, physical inactivity, and hypertension). This study aims to assess the burden of NCDs in Europe by 2050 under alternative scenarios. METHODS:This study combines qualitative and quantitative forecasting techniques to examine how population health in Europe may evolve from 2015 to 2050, taking into account future societal trends. Four scenarios were developed (one business-as-usual scenario, two response scenarios and one pessimistic scenario) and assessed against 'best' and 'worst'-case scenarios. This study provides quantitative estimates of both diseases and mortality outcomes, using a microsimulation model incorporating international survey data. FINDINGS:Each scenario is associated with a different risk factor prevalence rate across Europe during the period 2015-2050. The prevalence and incidence of NCDs consistently increase during the analysed time period, mainly driven by population ageing. In more optimistic scenarios, diseases will appear in later ages, while in the pessimistic scenarios, NCDs will impair working-age people. Life expectancy is expected to grow in all scenarios, but with differences by up to 4 years across scenarios and population groups. Premature mortality from NCDs will be reduced in more optimistic scenarios but stagnate in the worst-case scenario. INTERPRETATION:Population ageing will have a greater impact on the spread of NCDs by 2050 compared to risk factors. Nevertheless, risk factors, which are influenced by living environments, are an important factor for determining future life expectancy in Europe.

The receptor for advanced glycation end products (RAGE) is a pattern-recognition receptor involved in neurodegenerative and inflammatory disorders. RAGE induces cellular signaling upon binding to a variety of ligands. Evidence suggests that RAGE up-regulation is involved in quinolinate (QUIN)-induced toxicity. We investigated the QUIN-induced toxic events associated with early noxious responses, which might be linked to signaling cascades leading to cell death. The extent of early cellular damage caused by this receptor in the rat striatum was characterized by image processing methods. To document the direct interaction between QUIN and RAGE, we determined the binding constant (Kb) of RAGE (VC1 domain) with QUIN through a fluorescence assay. We modeled possible binding sites of QUIN to the VC1 domain for both rat and human RAGE. QUIN was found to bind at multiple sites to the VC1 dimer, each leading to particular mechanistic scenarios for the signaling evoked by QUIN binding, some of which directly alter RAGE oligomerization. This work contributes to the understanding of the phenomenon of RAGE-QUIN recognition, leading to the modulation of RAGE function.

The burial of Individual 3 at the Newen Antug site, a young adult woman, with a pottery grave offering characteristic of the Late Pottery period and dated to 880 years BP, is an indirect burial in a wooden structure. The form and design comprise a wooden wampo or small canoe, or a symbolic representation of one, a metaphor in current and historical Mapuche society for the voyage to the final abode of the dead, located beyond a water body which must be crossed in a boat. This is the first find of a burial in a canoe structure in Argentinian Patagonia, and the most southern example on the whole continent. It is also the earliest record in Argentina of pottery of the Red on White Bichrome tradition used as a grave offering, extending the repertoire of characteristics shared between the two slopes of the Andes mountains during the pottery periods, including ritual as well as material aspects.