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BackgroundThe IRONMAN® (IM) triathlon is a popular multi-sport, where age group athletes often strive to qualify for the IM World Championship in Hawaii. The aim of the present study was to investigate the location of the fastest IM racecourses for age group IM triathletes. This knowledge will help IM age group triathletes find the best racecourse, considering their strengths and weaknesses, to qualify.ObjectiveTo determine the fastest IM racecourse for age group IM triathletes using descriptive and predictive statistical methods.MethodsWe collected and analyzed 677,702 age group IM finishers' records from 228 countries participating in 444 IM competitions held between 2002 and 2022 across 66 event locations. Locations were ranked by average race speed (performance), and countries were sorted by number of records in the sample (participation). A predictive model was built with race finish time as the predicted variable and the triathlete's gender, age group, country of origin, event location, average air, and water temperatures in each location as predictors. The model was trained with 75% of the available data and was validated against the remaining 25%. Several model interpretability tools were used to explore how each predictor contributed to the model's predictive power, from which we intended to infer whether one or more predictors were more important than the others.ResultsThe average race speed ranking showed IM Vitoria-Gasteiz (1 race only), IM Copenhagen (8 races), IM Hawaii (18 races), IM Tallinn (4 races) and IM Regensburg (2 races) in the first five positions. The XG Boost Regressor model analysis indicated that the IM Hawaii course was the fastest race course and that male athletes aged 35 years and younger were the fastest. Most of the finishers were competing in IM triathlons held in the US, such as IM Wisconsin, IM Florida, IM Lake Placid, IM Arizona, and IM Hawaii, where the IM World Championship took place. However, the fastest average times were achieved in IM Vitoria-Gasteiz, IM Copenhagen, IM Hawaii, IM Tallin, IM Regensburg, IM Brazil Florianopolis, IM Barcelona, or IM Austria with the absolutely fastest race time in IM Hawaii. Most of the successful IM finishers originated from the US, followed by athletes from the UK, Canada, Australia, Germany, and France. The best mean IM race times were achieved by athletes from Austria, Germany, Belgium, Switzerland, Finland, and Denmark. Regarding environmental conditions, the best IM race times were achieved at an air temperature of ∼27°C and a water temperature of ∼24°C.ConclusionsIM age group athletes who intend to qualify for IM World Championship in IM Hawaii are encouraged to participate in IM Austria, IM Copenhagen, IM Brazil Florianopolis, and/or IM Barcelona in order to achieve a fast race time to qualify for the IM World Championship in IM Hawaii where the top race times were achieved. Most likely these races offer the best ambient temperatures for a fast race time.

This study examined the relationship of weather conditions, together with sex and country of origin, with running performance in the Boston Marathon from 1972 to 2018. A total of 580,990 observations from 382,209 different finishers were analyzed using Generalized Additive Mixed Models. Different groups and subgroups were considered such as all runners, near elite 101:200 finishers, near elite 21:100, annual top ten finishers and annual winners. Weather conditions, over the hours of the event, were average air temperature (°C), total precipitations (mm), wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) (°C), wind speed (km/h), wind direction (head wind, side wind, tail wind) and barometric pressure (hPa). These effects were examined in a multi-variable model, together with: sex, country of origin, calendar year, an interaction term country:sex and a spline smooth term in function of calendar year and sex. The average temperature, when increasing by 1°C, was related to worsened performance (by 00:01:47 h:min:sec for all finishers and by 00:00:20 h:min:sec for annual winners). Also, the pressure and wet-bulb globe temperature, when increasing, were related to worsened performances. Tail wind improved performances of all groups. Increasing precipitation was significantly (p