1. Effects of COVID-19 on trade flows: Measuring their impact through government policy responses
- Author
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Juan de Lucio, Ernesto Rodriguez-Crespo, Javier Barbero, UAM. Departamento de Estructura Económica y Economía del Desarrollo, Investigación en Economía y Gestión de la Innovación, and UAM. Departamento de Análisis Económico, Teoría Económica e Historia Económica
- Subjects
Viral Diseases ,Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) ,Epidemiology ,Economics ,Science ,Gravity ,Social Sciences ,Public policy ,Economic Geography ,Destinations ,Economía ,Medical Conditions ,Health Economics ,Regional trade ,International-Trade ,Diagnostic Medicine ,Medicine and Health Sciences ,Humans ,Public and Occupational Health ,Agreements ,Pandemics ,Virus Testing ,Health Care Policy ,Multidisciplinary ,Geography ,SARS-CoV-2 ,Monetary policy ,Commerce ,COVID-19 ,Covid 19 ,International Trade ,International economics ,Socioeconomic Aspects of Health ,Business-cycle synchronization ,Health Care ,Bilateral trade ,Policy ,Infectious Diseases ,Gravity model of trade ,Income ,Earth Sciences ,Income level ,Medicine ,Research Article - Abstract
This paper examines the impact of COVID-19 on bilateral trade flows using a state-of-the-art gravity model of trade. Using the monthly trade data of 68 countries exporting across 222 destinations between January 2019 and October 2020, our results are threefold. First, we find a greater negative impact of COVID-19 on bilateral trade for those countries that were members of regional trade agreements before the pandemic. Second, we find that the impact of COVID-19 is negative and significant when we consider indicators related to governmental actions. Finally, this negative effect is more intense when exporter and importer country share identical income levels. In the latter case, the highest negative impact is found for exports between high-income countries, Universidad de Alcalá de Henares (UAH) and Banco Santander through research project COVID-19 UAH 2019/00003/016/001/007. De Lucio also thanks financial support from Comunidad de Madrid and UAH (ref: EPUINV/2020/006 and H2019/HUM5761)
- Published
- 2021