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Deserts have been predicted to be one of the most responsive ecosystems to global climate change. In this study, we examine the spatial and demographic response of a keystone endemic plant of the Namib Desert (Welwitschia mirabilis), for which displacement and reduction of suitable climate has been foreseen under future conditions. The main aim is to assess the association between ongoing climate change and geographical patterns of welwitschia health, reproductive status, and size. We collected data on welwitschia distribution, health condition, reproductive status, and plant size in northern Namibia. We used ecological niche models to predict the expected geographic shift of suitability under climate change scenarios. For each variable, we compared our field measurements with the expected ongoing change in climate suitability. Finally, we tested the presence of simple geographical gradients in the observed patterns. The historically realized thermal niche of welwitschia will be almost completely unavailable in the next 30 years in northern Namibia. Expected reductions of climatic suitability in our study sites were strongly associated with indicators of negative population conditions, namely lower plant health, reduced recruitment and increased adult mortality. Population condition does not follow simple latitudinal or altitudinal gradients. The observed pattern of population traits is consistent with climate change trends and projections. This makes welwitschia a suitable bioindicator (i.e. a ‘sentinel’) for climate change effect in the Namib Desert ecosystems. Our spatially explicit approach, combining suitability modeling with geographic combinations of population conditions measured in the field, could be extensively adopted to identify sentinel species, and detect population responses to climate change in other regions and ecosystems.

The Aeolian wall lizard Podarcis raffonei is an island endemic that survives only on three tiny islets, and on the Capo Grosso peninsula of the Vulcano island, thus is among the European vertebrates with the smallest range and one of the most threatened by extinction. This species is declining due to competition and hybridization with the non-native lizard Podarcis siculus, but a regular monitoring program is lacking. Here we assessed the size and status of the Capo Grosso population of P. raffonei on Vulcano. In September 2015 we captured 30 individuals showing the typical brown phenotype of P. raffonei, while one single male showed a green phenotype, apparently intermediate between P. raffonei and the non-native Podarcis siculus. In May 2017, only 47% of 131 individuals showed the typical brown phenotype (P. raffonei-like) and 53% showed the green phenotype (P. siculus-like). Based on N-mixture models and removal sampling the estimated size of the Capo Grosso population was of 800-1300 individuals in 2017, being similar to 2015; available data suggest that the total range of the species could be as small as 2 ha. The frequency of individuals with the typical P. raffonei phenotype dramatically dropped between two samplings with a parallel increase of individuals displaying the green phenotype. Observation on outdoor captive-bred individuals demonstrates plasticity for colouration in P. raffonei individuals from Capo Grosso, with several individuals showing the typical brown pattern in September 2017 and a green pattern in March 2021. Non-exclusive hypotheses, including hybridization with P. siculus and plasticity in colour pattern of P. raffonei, are discussed to explain the phenotypic shifts of the P. raffonei population of Capo Grosso. While genomic evidence is required to reach conclusions and investigate eventual hybridization, it is urgent to undertake a programme for the monitoring and management of this lizard.

The accuracy of the DNA barcoding tool depends on the existence of a comprehensive archived library of sequences reliably determined at species level by expert taxonomists. However, misidentifications are not infrequent, especially following large-scale DNA barcoding campaigns on diverse and taxonomically complex groups. In this study we used the species-rich flea beetle genus Longitarsus, that requires a high level of expertise for morphological species identification, as a case study to assess the accuracy of the DNA barcoding tool following several optimization procedures. We built a cox1 reference database of 1502 sequences representing 78 Longitarsus species, among which 117 sequences (32 species) were newly generated using a non-invasive DNA extraction method that allows keeping reference voucher specimens. Within this dataset we identified 69 taxonomic inconsistencies using barcoding gap analysis and tree topology methods. Threshold optimisation and a posteriori taxonomic revision based on newly generated reference sequences and metadata allowed resolving 44 sequences with ambiguous and incorrect identification and provided a significant improvement of the DNA barcoding accuracy and identification efficacy. Unresolved taxonomic uncertainties, due to overlapping intra- and inter-specific levels of divergences, mainly regards the Longitarsus pratensis species complex and polyphyletic groups L. melanocephalus, L. nigrofasciatus and L. erro. Such type of errors indicates either poorly established taxonomy or any biological processes that make mtDNA groups poorly predictive of species boundaries (e.g. recent speciation or interspecific hybridisation), thus providing directions for further integrative taxonomic and evolutionary studies. Overall, this study underlines the importance of reference vouchers and high-quality metadata associated to sequences in reference databases and corroborates, once again, the key role of taxonomists in any step of the DNA barcoding pipeline in order to generate and maintain a correct and functional reference library.

Biological invasions are a major conservation threat for biodiversity worldwide. Islands are particularly vulnerable to invasive species, especially Mediterranean islands which have suffered human pressure since ancient times. In the Balearic archipelago, reptiles represent an outstanding case with more alien than native species. Moreover, in the last decade a new wave of alien snakes landed in the main islands of the archipelago, some of which were originally snake-free. The identification of the origin and colonization pathways of alien species, as well as the prediction of their expansion, is crucial to develop effective conservation strategies. In this study, we used molecular markers to assess the allochthonous status and the putative origin of the four introduced snake species (Hemorrhois hippocrepis, Malpolon monspessulanus, Macroprotodon mauritanicus and Rhinechis scalaris) as well as ecological niche models to infer their patterns of invasion and expansion based on current and future habitat suitability. For most species, DNA sequence data suggested the Iberian Peninsula as the potential origin of the allochthonous populations, although the shallow phylogeographic structure of these species prevented the identification of a restricted source-area. For all of them, the ecological niche models showed a current low habitat suitability in the Balearic, which is however predicted to increase significantly in the next few decades under climate change scenarios. Evidence from direct observations and spatial distribution of the first-occurrence records of alien snakes (but also lizards and worm lizards) suggest the nursery trade, and in particular olive tree importation from Iberian Peninsula, as the main pathway of introduction of alien reptiles in the Balearic islands. This trend has been reported also for recent invasions in NE Spain, thus showing that olive trees transplantation may be an effective vector for bioinvasion across the Mediterranean. The combination of molecular and ecological tools used in this study reveals a promising approach for the understanding of the complex invasion process, hence guiding conservation management actions.

The bivalve family Ostreidae has a worldwide distribution and includes species of high economic importance. Phylogenetics and systematic of oysters based on morphology have proved difficult because of their high phenotypic plasticity. In this study we explore the phylogenetic information of the DNA sequence and secondary structure of the nuclear, fast-evolving, ITS2 rRNA and the mitochondrial 16S rRNA genes from the Ostreidae and we implemented a multi-locus framework based on four loci for oyster phylogenetics and systematics. Sequence-structure rRNA models aid sequence alignment and improved accuracy and nodal support of phylogenetic trees. In agreement with previous molecular studies, our phylogenetic results indicate that none of the currently recognized subfamilies, Crassostreinae, Ostreinae, and Lophinae, is monophyletic. Single gene trees based on Maximum likelihood (ML) and Bayesian (BA) methods and on sequence-structure ML were congruent with multilocus trees based on a concatenated (ML and BA) and coalescent based (BA) approaches and consistently supported three main clades: (i) Crassostrea, (ii) Saccostrea, and (iii) an Ostreinae-Lophinae lineage. Therefore, the subfamily Crassostreinae (including Crassostrea), Saccostreinae subfam. nov. (including Saccostrea and tentatively Striostrea) and Ostreinae (including Ostreinae and Lophinae taxa) are recognized [corrected]. Based on phylogenetic and biogeographical evidence the Asian species of Crassostrea from the Pacific Ocean are assigned to Magallana gen. nov., whereas an integrative taxonomic revision is required for the genera Ostrea and Dendostrea. This study pointed out the suitability of the ITS2 marker for DNA barcoding of oyster and the relevance of using sequence-structure rRNA models and features of the ITS2 folding in molecular phylogenetics and taxonomy. The multilocus approach allowed inferring a robust phylogeny of Ostreidae providing a broad molecular perspective on their systematics.

Phylogeographic patterns of temperate species from the Mediterranean peninsulas have been investigated intensively. Nevertheless, as more phylogeographies become available, either unique patterns or new lines of concordance continue to emerge, providing new insights on the evolution of regional biotas. Here, we investigated the phylogeography and evolutionary history of the Italian crested newt, Triturus carnifex, through phylogenetic, molecular dating and population structure analyses of two mitochondrial gene fragments (ND2 and ND4; overall 1273 bp). We found three main mtDNA lineages having parapatric distribution and estimated divergence times between Late Pliocene and Early Pleistocene. One lineage (S) was widespread south of the northern Apennine chain and was further geographically structured into five sublineages, likely of Middle Pleistocene origin. The second lineage (C) was widespread throughout the Padano-Venetian plain and did not show a clear phylogeographic structure. The third lineage (N) was observed in only two populations located on western Croatia/Slovenia. Results of analysis of molecular variance suggested that partitioning populations according to the geographic distribution of these lineages and sublineages explains 76% of the observed genetic variation. The phylogeographic structure observed within T. carnifex and divergence time estimates among its lineages, suggest that responses to Pleistocene environmental changes in this single species have been as diverse as those found previously among several codistributed temperate species combined. Consistent with the landscape heterogeneity, physiographic features, and palaeogeographical evolution of its distribution range, these responses encompass multiple refugia along the Apennine chain, lowland refugia in large peri-coastal plains, and a 'cryptic' northern refugium.