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Tumor microenvironment (TME) is a complex dynamic system with many tumor-interacting components including tumor-infiltrating leukocytes (TILs), cancer associated fibroblasts, blood vessels, and other stromal constituents. It intrinsically affects tumor development and pharmacology of oncology therapeutics, particularly immune-oncology (IO) treatments. Accurate measurement of TME is therefore of great importance for understanding the tumor immunity, identifying IO treatment mechanisms, developing predictive biomarkers, and ultimately, improving the treatment of cancer. Here, we introduce a mouse-IO NGS-based (NGSmIO) assay for accurately detecting and quantifying the mRNA expression of 1080 TME related genes in mouse tumor models. The NGSmIO panel was shown to be superior to the commonly used microarray approach by hosting 300 more relevant genes to better characterize various lineage of immune cells, exhibits improved mRNA and protein expression correlation to flow cytometry, shows stronger correlation with mRNA expression than RNAseq with 10x higher sequencing depth, and demonstrates higher sensitivity in measuring low-expressed genes. We describe two studies; firstly, detecting the pharmacodynamic change of interferon-γ expression levels upon anti-PD-1: anti-CD4 combination treatment in MC38 and Hepa 1–6 tumors; and secondly, benchmarking baseline TILs in 14 syngeneic tumors using transcript level expression of lineage specific genes, which demonstrate effective and robust applications of the NGSmIO panel. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As people age, their ability to maintain homeostasis in response to stressors diminishes. Physical frailty, a syndrome characterized by loss of resilience to stressors, is thought to emerge due to dysregulation of and breakdowns in communication among key physiological systems. Dynamical systems modeling of these physiological systems aims to model the underlying processes that govern response to stressors. We hypothesize that dynamical systems model summaries are predictive of age-related declines in health and function. In this study, we analyze data obtained during 75-gram oral-glucose tolerance tests (OGTT) on 1,120 adults older than 50 years of age from the Baltimore Longitudinal Study on Aging. We adopt a two-stage modeling approach. First, we fit OGTT curves with the Ackerman model—a nonlinear, parametric model of the glucose-insulin system—and with functional principal components analysis. We then fit linear and Cox proportional hazards models to evaluate whether usual gait speed and survival are associated with the stage-one model summaries. We also develop recommendations for identifying inadequately-fitting nonlinear model fits in a cohort setting with numerous heterogeneous response curves. These recommendations include: (1) defining a constrained parameter space that ensures biologically plausible model fits, (2) evaluating the relative discrepancy between predicted and observed responses of biological interest, and (3) identifying model fits that have notably poor model fit summary measures, such as Rpseudo2 , relative to other fits in the cohort. The Ackerman model was unable to adequately fit 36% of the OGTT curves. The stage-two regression analyses found no associations between Ackerman model summaries and usual gait speed, nor with survival. The second functional principal component score was associated with faster gait speed (p<0.01) and improved survival (p<0.01). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we investigate the (2+1)-dimensional Kadomtsev-Petviashvili-Benjamin-Bona Mahony equation using two effective methods: the unified scheme and the advanced auxiliary equation scheme, aiming to derive precise wave solutions. These solutions are expressed as combinations of trigonometric, rational, hyperbolic, and exponential functions. Visual representations, including three-dimensional (3D) and two-dimensional (2D) combined charts, are provided for some of these solutions. The influence of the nonlinear parameter p on the wave type is thoroughly examined through diverse figures, illustrating the profound impact of nonlinearity. Additionally, we briefly investigate the Hamiltonian function and the stability of the model using a planar dynamical system approach. This involves examining trajectories, isoclines, and nullclines to illustrate stable solution paths for the wave variables. Numerical results demonstrate that these methods are reliable, straightforward, and potent tools for analyzing various nonlinear evolution equations found in physics, applied mathematics, and engineering. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the exponential transformation occurring in the healthcare industry, operational failures pose significant challenges in the delivery of safe and efficient care. Incident management plays a crucial role in mitigating these challenges; however, it encounters limitations due to organizational factors within complex and dynamic healthcare systems. Further, there are limited studies examining the interdependencies and relative importance of these factors in the context of incident management practices. To address this gap, this study utilized aggregate-level hospital data to explore the influence of organizational factors on incident management practices. Employing a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) structural learning algorithm, Tree Augmented Naive (TAN), this study assessed the probabilistic relationships, represented graphically, between organizational factors and incident management. Significantly, the model highlighted the critical roles of morale and staff engagement in influencing incident management practices within organizations. This study enhances our understanding of the importance of organizational factors in incident management, providing valuable insights for healthcare managers to effectively prioritize and allocate resources for continuous quality improvement efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Keen model is designed to represent an economy as a dynamic system governed by the interactions between private debt, wage share, and employment rate. When certain conditions are met, the model can lead to a debt spiral, which accurately mimics the impact of a financial crisis on an economy. This manuscript presents a recipe for breaking this spiral by expressing Keen's model as an affine nonlinear system that can be modified through policy interventions. We begin by considering critical initial conditions that resemble a financial crisis to achieve this goal. We then locate a desired point within the system's vector field that leads to a desirable equilibrium and design a path towards it. This path is later followed using one-step-ahead optimal control. We illustrate our approach by presenting simulated control scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The stochastic nonlinear Schrödinger model (SNLSM) in (1+1)-dimension with random potential is examined in this paper. The analysis of the evolution of nonlinear dispersive waves in a totally disordered medium depends heavily on the model under investigation. This study has three main objectives. Firstly, for the SNLSM, derive stochastic precise solutions by using the modified Sardar sub-equation technique. This technique is efficient and intuitive for solving such models, as shown by the generated solutions, which can be described as trigonometric, hyperbolic, bright, single and dark. Secondly, for obtaining numerical solutions to the SNLSM, the algorithms described here offer an accurate and efficient technique. Lastly, investigate the phase plane analysis of the perturbed and unperturbed dynamical system and the time series analysis of the governing model. The results show that the numerical and analytical techniques can be extended to solve other nonlinear partial differential equations in physics and engineering. The results of this study have a significant impact on how well we comprehend how solitons behave in physical systems. Additionally, they may serve as a foundation for the development of improved numerical techniques for handling challenging nonlinear partial differential equations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Musical performers synchronize to each other despite differences in sound-onset timings which reflect each musician's sense of the beat. A dynamical system of Kuramoto oscillators can simulate this spread of onsets at varying levels of temporal alignment with a variety of tempo and sound densities which also influence individual abilities for beat extraction. Here, we examined how people's sense of beat emerges when tapping with Kuramoto oscillators of varying coupling strengths which distribute onsets around periodic moments in time. We hypothesized that people tap regularly close to the sound onset density peaks when coupling is strong. When weaker coupling produces multiple inter-onset intervals that are more widely spread, people may interpret their variety and distributions differently in order to form a sense of beat. Experiment 1 with a small in-person cohort indeed showed a few individuals who responded with high frequency tapping to slightly weak coupled stimuli although the rest found regular beats. Experiment 2 with a larger on-line cohort revealed three groups based on characteristics of inter-tap-intervals analyzed by k-means clustering, namely a Regular group (about 1/3 of the final sample) with the most robust beat extraction, Fast group (1/6) who maintained frequent tapping except for the strongest coupling, and Hybrid group (1/2) who maintained beats except for the weakest coupling. Furthermore, the adaptation time course of tap interval variability was slowest in Regular group. We suggest that people's internal criterion for forming beats may involve different perceptual timescales where multiple stimulus intervals could be integrated or processed sequentially as is, and that the highly frequent tapping may reflect their approach in actively seeking synchronization. Our study provides the first documentation of the novel limits of sensorimotor synchronization and individual differences using coupled oscillator dynamics as a generative model of collective behavior. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We propose an algorithm to simulate Markovian SIS epidemics with homogeneous rates and pairwise interactions on a fixed undirected graph, assuming a distributed memory model of parallel programming and limited bandwidth. This setup can represent a broad class of simulation tasks with compartmental models. Existing solutions for such tasks are sequential by nature. We provide an innovative solution that makes trade-offs between statistical faithfulness and parallelism possible. We offer an implementation of the algorithm in the form of pseudocode in the Appendix. Also, we analyze its algorithmic complexity and its induced dynamical system. Finally, we design experiments to show its scalability and faithfulness. In our experiments, we discover that graph structures that admit good partitioning schemes, such as the ones with clear community structures, together with the correct application of a graph partitioning method, can lead to better scalability and faithfulness. We believe this algorithm offers a way of scaling out, allowing researchers to run simulation tasks at a scale that was not accessible before. Furthermore, we believe this algorithm lays a solid foundation for extensions to more advanced epidemic simulations and graph dynamics in other fields. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The fractional coupled Konno-Onno model, which is frequently used in numerous fields of scientific and engineering disciplines, is being investigated in the current study in order to gain an understanding of complex phenomena and systems. The two main goals of this study are to be accomplished. Firstly, the research aims to identify novel solitons for the fractional coupled Konno-Onno model using the unified technique, which is currently absent from the literature. Secondly, a novel strategy that hasn't been previously investigated is phase portrait analysis for both perturbed and non-perturbed dynamical systems. The current study uses appropriate parametric values in phase plane analysis, 2D, 3D, and density plots to ensure the results are physically compatible. The results validate the claim that the technique used in this research to produce complete and uniform responses is not only simple to use and effective, but also substantially faster in computing. The technique is useful for resolving more complex phenomena that arise in engineering and mathematical physics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of the Amazon River freshwater plume on planktonic cnidarians over neritic and oceanic provinces is unknown. To provide further knowledge we took advantage of an oceanographic cruise performed in October 2012 in the Western Atlantic off the North Brazilian coast (8°N, 51°W—3.5°S, 37°W). A complex and dynamic system was observed, with strong currents and eddies dispersing the plume over a large area. Our results show that the Amazon River shapes marine habitats with a thin highly productive surface layer compressed by a deeper oxygen minimum zone both over the shelf and in the open ocean. We hypothesized that such habitat structure is particularly advantageous to planktonic cnidarians, which have low metabolic rates, being able to survive in hypoxic zones, resulting in high species richness and abundance. Over the shelf, distinctions were sharp and the area under the influence of the plume presented a diverse assemblage occurring in large abundance, while outside the plume, the hydromedusa Liriope tetraphylla was dominant and occurred almost alone. Divergences in the oceanic province were less pronounced, but still expressive being mostly related to the abundance of dominant species. We concluded that Amazon River plume is a paramount physical feature that profoundly affects the dynamics of the mesoscale habitat structure in the Western Equatorial Atlantic Ocean and that such habitat structure is responsible for shaping planktonic cnidarian assemblages both in neritic and oceanic provinces. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An appropriate dynamic coupling form between nodes and edges' state can effectively promote the emergence of desired network function (phenomenon), but the existing literatures have not conducted in-depth research on the coupling mechanism. This paper mainly focuses on the coupling auxiliary mechanism of dynamic edges for the emergence of cluster phenomenon of nodes, explores the essential relation between structure and function in complex dynamical networks (CDNs). Firstly, a novel model of CDNs has dynamic systems attached on not only nodes but also edges is proposed from the viewpoint of large-scale system. Secondly, a feedback nodes controller is synthesized associate with the designed linear and adaptive dynamics of edges. Via the appropriate dynamic behaviors of the edges system, the controlled nodes can realize cluster synchronized. Finally, the validity of the proposed approaches is verified by a given numerical example. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modeling psychopathology as a complex dynamic system represents Borderline Personality Disorder (BPD) as a constellation of symptoms (e.g., nodes) that feedback and self-sustain each other shaping a network structure. Through in silico interventions, we simulated the evolution of the BPD system by manipulating: 1) the connectivity strength between nodes (i.e., vulnerability), 2) the external disturbances (i.e., stress) and 3) the predisposition of symptoms to manifest. Similarly, using network analysis we evaluated the effect of an in vivo group psychotherapy to detect the symptoms modified by the intervention. We found that a network with greater connectivity strength between nodes (more vulnerable) showed a higher number of activated symptoms than networks with less strength connectivity. We also found that increases in stress affected more vulnerable networks compared to less vulnerable ones, while decreases in stress revealed a hysteresis effect in the most strongly connected networks. The in silico intervention to symptom alleviation revealed the relevance of nodes related to difficulty in anger regulation, nodes which were also detected as impacted by the in vivo intervention. The complex systems methodology is an alternative to the common cause model with which research has approached the BPD phenomenon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Compartment models are implemented to understand the dynamic of a system. To analyze the models, a numerical tool is required. This manuscript presents an alternative numerical tool for the SIR and SEIR models. The same idea could be applied to other compartment models. The result starts with transforming the SIR model to an equivalent differential equation. The Dirichlet series satisfying the differential equation leads to an alternative numerical method to obtain the model's solutions. The derived Dirichlet solution not only matches the numerical solution obtained by the fourth-order Runge-Kutta method (RK-4), but it also carries the long-run behavior of the system. The SIR solutions obtained by the RK-4 method, an approximated analytical solution, and the Dirichlet series approximants are graphically compared. The Dirichlet series approximants order 15 and the RK-4 method are almost perfectly matched with the mean square error less than 2 × 10−5. A specific Dirichlet series is considered in the case of the SEIR model. The process to obtain a numerical solution is done in the similar way. The graphical comparisons of the solutions achieved by the Dirichlet series approximants order 20 and the RK-4 method show that both methods produce almost the same solution. The mean square errors of the Dirichlet series approximants order 20 in this case are less than 1.2 × 10−4. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the panel data of 123 city commercial banks in China from 2007 to 2017, we use the dynamic panel system GMM estimation method to empirically test the impact of private capital holdings on the stability of city commercial banks. The results show that private capital holding improves the operating performance of city commercial banks, reduces the volatility of return on total assets, and is conducive to the stability of city commercial banks. Furthermore, the lack of financial awareness of local governments has led to the negative impact of private capital, that is, the stability of the banks has declined. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A method is proposed to study the temporal variability of legislative roll-call votes in a parliament from the perspective of complex dynamical systems. We studied the Chilean Chamber of Deputies' by analyzing the agreement ratio and the voting outcome of each vote over the last 19 years with a Recurrence Quantification Analysis and an entropy analysis (Sample Entropy). Two significant changes in the temporal variability were found: one in 2014, where the voting outcome became more recurrent and with less entropy, and another in 2018, where the agreement ratio became less recurrent and with higher entropy. These changes may be directly related to major changes in the Chilean electoral system and the composition of the Chamber of Deputies, given that these changes occurred just after the first parliamentary elections with non-compulsory voting (2013 elections) and the first elections with a proportional system in conjunction with an increase in the number of deputies (2017 elections) were held. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In contrast with robust systems that resist noise or fragile systems that break with noise, antifragility is defined as a property of complex systems that benefit from noise or disorder. Here we define and test a simple measure of antifragility for complex dynamical systems. In this work we use our antifragility measure to analyze real data from return prices in the stock and cryptocurrency markets. Our definition of antifragility is the product of the return price and a perturbation. We explore different types of perturbations that typically arise from within the system. Our results suggest that for both the stock market and the cryptocurrency market, the tendency among the 'top performers' is to be robust rather than antifragile. It would be important to explore other possible definitions of antifragility to understand its role in financial markets and in complex dynamical systems in general. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper is concerned with the sampled-data consensus of networked Euler-Lagrange systems. The Euler-Lagrange system has enormous advantages in analyzing and designing dynamical systems. Yet, some problems arise in the Euler-Lagrange equation-based control laws when they contain sampled-data feedbacks. The control law differentiates the discontinuous sampled-data signals to generate its control input. In this process, infinities in the control inputs are generated inevitably. The main goal of this work is to eliminate these infinities and make the control inputs applicable. To reach this goal, a class of differentiable pulse functions is designed for the controllers. The pulse functions work as multipliers on the sampled-data signals to make them differentiable, hence avoid the infinities. A new consensus condition compatible with the pulse function is also obtained through rigorous consensus analysis. The condition is proved to be less conservative compared with that of the existing method. Finally, numerical examples are given to illustrate the findings and theoretical results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper is the first studying on designing exponentially passive analysis for T-S fuzzy of dynamic systems with various time-varying delays such as neutral, discrete, and distributed time-varying delays. Constructing the new Lyapunov-Krasovskii function and the Newton-Leibniz theory, the zero equations, and the matrix inequality techniques, the multiple delay-dependent criteria, with assuring exponentially passive on the discussed T-S fuzzy system, are defined in respect of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs) that can be checked easily using the LMI toolbox of MATLAB. Those approaches give less conservative, exponentially passive criteria for special cases of general stability of a neutral differential system. Furthermore, the results of this study are delay-dependent, which depend on the lower and upper bound with the time-varying delay. Lastly, some numerical examples illustrate the performance of our criteria based on the results obtained and summarize some of the previous achievements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A fundamental challenge in neuroscience is to uncover the principles governing how the brain interacts with the external environment. However, assumptions about external stimuli fundamentally constrain current computational models. We show in silico that unknown external stimulation can produce error in the estimated linear time-invariant dynamical system. To address these limitations, we propose an approach to retrieve the external (unknown) input parameters and demonstrate that the estimated system parameters during external input quiescence uncover spatiotemporal profiles of external inputs over external stimulation periods more accurately. Finally, we unveil the expected (and unexpected) sensory and task-related extra-cortical input profiles using functional magnetic resonance imaging data acquired from 96 subjects (Human Connectome Project) during the resting-state and task scans. This dynamical systems model of the brain offers information on the structure and dimensionality of the BOLD signal's external drivers and shines a light on the likely external sources contributing to the BOLD signal's non-stationarity. Our findings show the role of exogenous inputs in the BOLD dynamics and highlight the importance of accounting for external inputs to unravel the brain's time-varying functional dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Task allocation is a fundamental requirement for multi-robot systems working in dynamic environments. An efficient task allocation algorithm allows the robots to adjust their behavior in response to environmental changes such as fault occurrences, or other robots' actions to increase overall system performance. To address these challenges, this paper presents a Task Allocation technique based on a threshold level which is an accumulative value aggregated by a centralized unit using the Task-Robot ratio and the number of the available resource in the system. The threshold level serves as a reference for task acceptance and the task acceptance occurs despite resource shortage. The deficient resources for the accepted task are acquired through an auction process using objective minimization. Despite resource shortage, task acceptance occurs. The threshold approach and the objective minimization in the auction process reduce the overall completion time and increase the system's resource utilization up to 96%, which is demonstrated theoretically and validated through simulations and real experimentation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dynamical systems on graphs allow to describe multiple phenomena from different areas of Science. In particular, many complex systems in Ecology are studied by this approach. In this paper we analize the mathematical framework for the study of the structural stability of each stationary point, feasible or not, introducing a generalization for this concept, defined as Global Structural Stability. This approach would fit with the proper mathematical concept of structural stability, in which we find a full description of the complex dynamics on the phase space due to nonlinear dynamics. This fact can be analyzed as an informational field grounded in a global attractor whose structure can be completely characterized. These attractors are stable under perturbation and suppose the minimal structurally stable sets. We also study in detail, mathematically and computationally, the zones characterizing different levels of biodiversity in bipartite graphs describing mutualistic antagonistic systems of population dynamics. In particular, we investigate the dependence of the region of maximal biodiversity of a system on its connectivity matrix. On the other hand, as the network topology does not completely determine the robustness of the dynamics of a complex network, we study the correlation between structural stability and several graph measures. A systematic study on synthetic and biological graphs is presented, including 10 mutualistic networks of plants and seed-dispersal and 1000 random synthetic networks. We compare the role of centrality measures and modularity, concluding the importance of just cooperation strength among nodes when describing areas of maximal biodiversity. Indeed, we show that cooperation parameters are the central role for biodiversity while other measures act as secondary supporting functions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Public health policy and practice is strengthened by the application of quality evidence to decision making. However, there is limited understanding of how initiatives that support the generation and use of evidence in public health are operationalised. This study examines factors that support the internal functioning of a partnership, the Western Australian Sexual Health and Blood-borne Virus Applied Research and Evaluation Network (SiREN). SiREN aims to build research and evaluation capacity and increase evidence-informed decision making in a public health context. Methods: This study was informed by systems concepts. It developed a causal loop diagram, a type of qualitative system model that illustrated the factors that influence the internal operation of SiREN. The causal loop diagram was developed through an iterative and participatory process with SiREN staff and management (n = 9) via in-depth semi-structured interviews (n = 4), workshops (n = 2), and meetings (n = 6). Results: Findings identified critical factors that affected the functioning of SiREN. Central to SiREN's ability to meet its aims was its capacity to adapt within a dynamic system. Adaptation was facilitated by the flow of knowledge between SiREN and system stakeholders and the expertise of the team. SiREN demonstrated credibility and capability, supporting development of new, and strengthening existing, partnerships. This improved SiREN's ability to be awarded new funding and enhanced its sustainability and growth. SiREN actively balanced divergent stakeholder interests to increase sustainability. Conclusion: The collaborative development of the diagram facilitated a shared understanding of SiREN. Adaptability was central to SiREN achieving its aims. Monitoring the ability of public health programs to adapt to the needs of the systems in which they work is important to evaluate effectiveness. The detailed analysis of the structure of SiREN and how this affects its operation provide practical insights for those interested in establishing a similar project. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dynamical systems can be subject to critical transitions where a system's state abruptly shifts from one stable equilibrium to another. To a certain extent such transitions can be predicted with a set of methods known as early warning signals. These methods are often developed and tested on systems simulated with equation-based approaches that focus on the aggregate dynamics of a system. Many ecological phenomena however seem to necessitate the consideration of a system's micro-level interactions since only there the actual reasons for sudden state transitions become apparent. Agent-based approaches that simulate systems from the bottom up by explicitly focusing on these micro-level interactions have only rarely been used in such investigations. This study compares the performance of a bifurcation estimation method for predicting state transitions when applied to data from an equation-based and an agent-based version of the Ising-model. The results show that the method can be applied to agent-based models and, despite its greater stochasticity, can provide useful predictions about state changes in complex systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The process of integrating observations into a numerical model of an evolving dynamical system, known as data assimilation, has become an essential tool in computational science. These methods, however, are computationally expensive as they typically involve large matrix multiplication and inversion. Furthermore, it is challenging to incorporate a constraint into the procedure, such as requiring a positive state vector. Here we introduce an entirely new approach to data assimilation, one that satisfies an information measure and uses the unnormalized Kullback-Leibler divergence, rather than the standard choice of Euclidean distance. Two sequential data assimilation algorithms are presented within this framework and are demonstrated numerically. These new methods are solved iteratively and do not require an adjoint. We find them to be computationally more efficient than Optimal Interpolation (3D-Var solution) and the Kalman filter whilst maintaining similar accuracy. Furthermore, these Kullback-Leibler data assimilation (KL-DA) methods naturally embed constraints, unlike Kalman filter approaches. They are ideally suited to systems that require positive valued solutions as the KL-DA guarantees this without need of transformations, projections, or any additional steps. This Kullback-Leibler framework presents an interesting new direction of development in data assimilation theory. The new techniques introduced here could be developed further and may hold potential for applications in the many disciplines that utilize data assimilation, especially where there is a need to evolve variables of large-scale systems that must obey physical constraints. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a data assimilation technique that uses an ensemble of models, updated with data, to track the time evolution of a usually non-linear system. It does so by using an empirical approximation to the well-known Kalman filter. However, its performance can suffer when the ensemble size is smaller than the state space, as is often necessary for computationally burdensome models. This scenario means that the empirical estimate of the state covariance is not full rank and possibly quite noisy. To solve this problem in this high dimensional regime, we propose a computationally fast and easy to implement algorithm called the penalized ensemble Kalman filter (PEnKF). Under certain conditions, it can be theoretically proven that the PEnKF will be accurate (the estimation error will converge to zero) despite having fewer ensemble members than state dimensions. Further, as contrasted to localization methods, the proposed approach learns the covariance structure associated with the dynamical system. These theoretical results are supported with simulations of several non-linear and high dimensional systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a forecasting model aim to predict hospital occupancy in metropolitan areas during the current COVID-19 pandemic. Our SEIRD type model features asymptomatic and symptomatic infections with detailed hospital dynamics. We model explicitly branching probabilities and non-exponential residence times in each latent and infected compartments. Using both hospital admittance confirmed cases and deaths, we infer the contact rate and the initial conditions of the dynamical system, considering breakpoints to model lockdown interventions and the increase in effective population size due to lockdown relaxation. The latter features let us model lockdown-induced 2nd waves. Our Bayesian approach allows us to produce timely probabilistic forecasts of hospital demand. We have applied the model to analyze more than 70 metropolitan areas and 32 states in Mexico. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present paper introduces a new model used to study and analyse the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV2) epidemic-reported-data from Spain. This is a Hidden Markov Model whose hidden layer is a regeneration process with Poisson immigration, Po-INAR(1), together with a mechanism that allows the estimation of the under-reporting in non-stationary count time series. A novelty of the model is that the expectation of the unobserved process's innovations is a time-dependent function defined in such a way that information about the spread of an epidemic, as modelled through a Susceptible-Infectious-Removed dynamical system, is incorporated into the model. In addition, the parameter controlling the intensity of the under-reporting is also made to vary with time to adjust to possible seasonality or trend in the data. Maximum likelihood methods are used to estimate the parameters of the model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the dynamic model of the rigid space stepped-pipe strings system is derived with Lagrangian method to represent the system dynamic behaviors which enriches the analysis method of longitudinal vibration of stepped-pipe strings. The stepped-pipe strings is constructed of pipes with different diameters and lengths, the physical properties of which mainly depends on the axial force and the depth of deep-sea mining. Based on lumped element method, the heave compensation system with dynamic vibration absorber is designed for longitudinal vibration suppression of the stepped-pipe strings. The analytical solution is obtained by modal analysis method when the mining ship is subjected to sea breeze excitation. The proposed method is easily implementable for rigid space stepped-pipe strings system with complex multi-degree-of-free deep-sea mining dynamic model. Furthermore, the optimal combination of mass ratio, spring coefficient and damping ratio is shown to have a better vibration suppression performance. Finally, numerical simulations on the stepped-pipe strings system with or without dynamic vibration absorbers are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study continuous-time multi-agent models, where agents interact according to a network topology. At any point in time, each agent occupies a specific local node state. Agents change their state at random through interactions with neighboring agents. The time until a transition happens can follow an arbitrary probability density. Stochastic (Monte-Carlo) simulations are often the preferred—sometimes the only feasible—approach to study the complex emerging dynamical patterns of such systems. However, each simulation run comes with high computational costs mostly due to updating the instantaneous rates of interconnected agents after each transition. This work proposes a stochastic rejection-based, event-driven simulation algorithm that scales extremely well with the size and connectivity of the underlying contact network and produces statistically correct samples. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on different information spreading models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A mesoscale network model is proposed for the development of spike and wave discharges (SWDs) in the cortico-thalamo-cortical (C-T-C) circuit. It is based on experimental findings in two genetic models of childhood absence epilepsy–rats of WAG/Rij and GAERS strains. The model is organized hierarchically into two levels (brain structures and individual neurons) and composed of compartments for representation of somatosensory cortex, reticular and ventroposteriomedial thalamic nuclei. The cortex and the two thalamic compartments contain excitatory and inhibitory connections between four populations of neurons. Two connected subnetworks both including relevant parts of a C-T-C network responsible for SWD generation are modelled: a smaller subnetwork for the focal area in which the SWD generation can take place, and a larger subnetwork for surrounding areas which can be only passively involved into SWDs, but which is mostly responsible for normal brain activity. This assumption allows modeling of both normal and SWD activity as a dynamical system (no noise is necessary), providing reproducibility of results and allowing future analysis by means of theory of dynamical system theories. The model is able to reproduce most time-frequency changes in EEG activity accompanying the transition from normal to epileptiform activity and back. Three different mechanisms of SWD initiation reported previously in experimental studies were successfully reproduced in the model. The model incorporates also a separate mechanism for the maintenance of SWDs based on coupling analysis from experimental data. Finally, the model reproduces the possibility to stop ongoing SWDs with high frequency electrical stimulation, as described in the literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Goal-directed reaching adapts to meet changing task requirements after unexpected perturbations such as a sudden switch of target location. Literature on adaptive behavior using a target switch has primarily focused on adjustments of the end-effector trajectory, addressing proposed feedback and feedforward processes in planning adjusted actions. Starting from a dynamical systems approach to motor coordination, the current paper focusses on coordination of joint angles after a target switch, which has received little attention in the literature. We argue that joint angles are coordinated in synergies, temporary task-specific units emerging from interactions amongst task, organism, and environmental constraints. We asked whether after a target switch: i) joint angles were coordinated in synergies, ii) joint angles were coordinated in a different synergy than the synergy used when moving to the original target, and iii) synergies or end-effector trajectory was adjusted first. Participants (N = 12) performed manual reaching movements toward a target on a table (stationary target trials), where in some trials the target could unexpectedly switch to a new location (switch trials). Results showed that the end-effector curved to the switched target. Joint angles were synergistically organized as shown by the large extent of co-variation based on Uncontrolled Manifold analyses. At the end of the target switch movement, joint angle configurations differed from the joint angle configurations used to move to the original stationary target. Hence, we argue, a new synergy emerged after the target switch. The order of adjustment in the synergies and in the end-effector was flexible within participants, though most often synergies were adjusted first. These findings support the two-step framework of Kay (1988) to understand the coordination of abundant degrees of freedom and to explain adaptive actions. The flexibility in the order of adjustments of synergies suggests that the coordination of DOF emerges from self-organization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To compare changes in foraminal motion at two time points post-surgery between artificial disc replacement (ADR) and anterior cervical discectomy and fusion (ACDF). Methods: Eight ACDF and 6 ADR patients (all single-level C5-6) were tested at 2 years (T1) and 6.5 years (T2) post-surgery. The minimum foraminal height (FH.Min) and width (FW.Min) achieved during neck axial rotation and extension, and the range of these dimensions during motion (FH.Rn and FW.Rn, respectively) were measured using a biplane dynamic x-ray system, CT imaging and model-based tracking while patients performed neck axial rotation and extension tasks. Two-way mixed ANOVA was employed for analysis. Results: In neck extension, significant interactions were found between year post-surgery and type of surgery for FW.Rn at C5-6 (p<0.006) and C6-7 (p<0.005), and for FH.Rn at C6-7 (p<0.01). Post-hoc analysis indicated decreases over time in FW.Rn for ACDF (p<0.01) and increases in FH.Rn for ADR (p<0.03) at the C6-7 adjacent level. At index level, FW.Rn was comparable between ACDF and ADR at T1, but was smaller for ACDF than for ADR at T2 (p<0.002). In axial rotation, differences were found between T1 and T2 but did not depend on type of surgery (p>0.7). Conclusions: Changes were observed in the range of foraminal geometry at adjacent levels from 2 years to 6.5 years post-surgery that were different between ACDF and ADR for neck extension. These changes are contrary to the notion that motion at adjacent levels continue to increase following ACDF as compared to ADR over the long term. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper considers the analysis of continuous time gradient-based optimization algorithms through the lens of nonlinear contraction theory. It demonstrates that in the case of a time-invariant objective, most elementary results on gradient descent based on convexity can be replaced by much more general results based on contraction. In particular, gradient descent converges to a unique equilibrium if its dynamics are contracting in any metric, with convexity of the cost corresponding to the special case of contraction in the identity metric. More broadly, contraction analysis provides new insights for the case of geodesically-convex optimization, wherein non-convex problems in Euclidean space can be transformed to convex ones posed over a Riemannian manifold. In this case, natural gradient descent converges to a unique equilibrium if it is contracting in any metric, with geodesic convexity of the cost corresponding to contraction in the natural metric. New results using semi-contraction provide additional insights into the topology of the set of optimizers in the case when multiple optima exist. Furthermore, they show how semi-contraction may be combined with specific additional information to reach broad conclusions about a dynamical system. The contraction perspective also easily extends to time-varying optimization settings and allows one to recursively build large optimization structures out of simpler elements. Extensions to natural primal-dual optimization and game-theoretic contexts further illustrate the potential reach of these new perspectives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stem cells, with their capacity to self-renew and to differentiate to more specialized cell types, play a key role to maintain homeostasis in adult tissues. To investigate how, in the dynamic stochastic environment of a tissue, non-genetic diversity and the precise balance between proliferation and differentiation are achieved, it is necessary to understand the molecular mechanisms of the stem cells in decision making process. By focusing on the impact of stochasticity, we proposed a computational model describing the regulatory circuitry as a tri-stable dynamical system to reveal the mechanism which orchestrate this balance. Our model explains how the distribution of noise in genes, linked to the cell regulatory networks, affects cell decision-making to maintain homeostatic state. The noise effect on tissue homeostasis is achieved by regulating the probability of differentiation and self-renewal through symmetric and/or asymmetric cell divisions. Our model reveals, when mutations due to the replication of DNA in stem cell division, are inevitable, how mutations contribute to either aging gradually or the development of cancer in a short period of time. Furthermore, our model sheds some light on the impact of more complex regulatory networks on the system robustness against perturbations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A slew of participatory and community-demand-driven approaches have emerged in order to address the multi-dimensional nature of poverty in developing nations. The present study identifies critical factors responsible for poverty alleviation in India with the aid of fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs) deployed for showcasing causal reasoning. It is through FCM-based simulations that the study evaluates the efficacy of existing poverty alleviation approaches, including community organisation based micro-financing, capability and social security, market-based and good governance. Our findings confirm, to some degree, the complementarity of various approaches to poverty alleviation that need to be implemented simultaneously for a comprehensive poverty alleviation drive. FCM-based simulations underscore the need for applying an integrated and multi-dimensional approach incorporating elements of various approaches for eradicating poverty, which happens to be a multi-dimensional phenomenon. Besides, the study offers policy implications for the design, management, and implementation of poverty eradication programmes. On the methodological front, the study enriches FCM literature in the areas of knowledge capture, sample adequacy, and robustness of the dynamic system model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to assess the accuracy of the Cosmed K5 portable metabolic system dynamic mixing chamber (MC) and breath-by-breath (BxB) modes against the criterion Douglas bag (DB) method. Methods: Fifteen participants (mean age±SD, 30.6±7.4 yrs) had their metabolic variables measured at rest and during cycling at 50, 100, 150, 200, and 250W. During each stage, participants were connected to the first respiratory gas collection method (randomized) for the first four minutes to reach steady state, followed by 3-min (or 5-min for DB) collection periods for the resting condition, and 2-min collection periods for all cycling intensities. Collection periods for the second and third methods were preceded by a washout of 1–3 min. Repeated measures ANOVAs were used to compare metabolic variables measured by each method, for seated rest and each cycling work rate. Results: For ventilation (VE) and oxygen uptake (VO2), the K5 MC and BxB modes were within 2.1 l/min (VE) and 0.08 l/min (VO2) of the DB (p≥0.05). Compared to DB values, carbon dioxide production (VCO2) was significantly underestimated by the K5 BxB mode at work rates ≥150W by 0.12–0.31 l/min (p<0.05). K5 MC and BxB respiratory exchange ratio values were significantly lower than DB at cycling work rates ≥100W by 0.03–0.08 (p<0.05). Conclusion: Compared to the DB method, the K5 MC and BxB modes are acceptable for measuring VE and VO2 across a wide range of cycling intensities. Both K5 modes provided comparable values to each other. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Fuzzy wavelet neural network (FWNN) has proven to be a promising strategy in the identification of nonlinear systems. The network considers both global and local properties, deals with imprecision present in sensory data, leading to desired precisions. In this paper, we proposed a new FWNN model nominated "Fuzzy Jump Wavelet Neural Network" (FJWNN) for identifying dynamic nonlinear-linear systems, especially in practical applications. Methods: The proposed FJWNN is a fuzzy neural network model of the Takagi-Sugeno-Kang type whose consequent part of fuzzy rules is a linear combination of input regressors and dominant wavelet neurons as a sub-jump wavelet neural network. Each fuzzy rule can locally model both linear and nonlinear properties of a system. The linear relationship between the inputs and the output is learned by neurons with linear activation functions, whereas the nonlinear relationship is locally modeled by wavelet neurons. Orthogonal least square (OLS) method and genetic algorithm (GA) are respectively used to purify the wavelets for each sub-JWNN. In this paper, fuzzy rule induction improves the structure of the proposed model leading to less fuzzy rules, inputs of each fuzzy rule and model parameters. The real-world gas furnace and the real electromyographic (EMG) signal modeling problem are employed in our study. In the same vein, piecewise single variable function approximation, nonlinear dynamic system modeling, and Mackey–Glass time series prediction, ratify this method superiority. The proposed FJWNN model is compared with the state-of-the-art models based on some performance indices such as RMSE, RRSE, Rel ERR%, and VAF%. Results: The proposed FJWNN model yielded the following results: RRSE (mean±std) of 10e-5±6e-5 for piecewise single-variable function approximation, RMSE (mean±std) of 2.6–4±2.6e-4 for the first nonlinear dynamic system modelling, RRSE (mean±std) of 1.59e-3±0.42e-3 for Mackey–Glass time series prediction, RMSE of 0.3421 for gas furnace modelling and VAF% (mean±std) of 98.24±0.71 for the EMG modelling of all trial signals, indicating a significant enhancement over previous methods. Conclusions: The FJWNN demonstrated promising accuracy and generalization while moderating network complexity. This improvement is due to applying main useful wavelets in combination with linear regressors and using fuzzy rule induction. Compared to the state-of-the-art models, the proposed FJWNN yielded better performance and, therefore, can be considered a novel tool for nonlinear system identification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human communication is invariably executed in the form of a narrative, an account of connected events comprising characters, actions, and settings. A coherent and well-structured narrative is therefore essential for effective communication, confusion caused by a haphazard attempt at storytelling being a common experience. This also suggests that a scientific understanding of how a narrative is formed and delivered is key to understanding human communication and dialog. Here we show that the definition of a narrative lends itself naturally to network-based modeling and analysis, and they can be further enriched by incorporating various text analysis methods from computational linguistics. We model the temporally unfolding nature of narrative as a dynamical growing network of nodes and edges representing characters and interactions, which allows us to characterize the story progression using the network growth pattern. We also introduce the concept of an interaction map between characters based on associated sentiments and topics identified from the text that characterize their relationships explicitly. We demonstrate the methods via application to Victor Hugo's Les Misérables. Going beyond simple, aggregate occurrence-based methods for narrative representation and analysis, our proposed methods show promise in uncovering its essential nature of a highly complex, dynamic system that reflects the rich structure of human interaction and communication. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the effects of individual awareness on epidemic phenomena is important to comprehend the coevolving system dynamic, to improve forecasting, and to better evaluate the outcome of possible interventions. In previous models of epidemics on social networks, individual awareness has often been approximated as a generic personal trait that depends on social reinforcement, and used to introduce variability in state transition probabilities. A novelty of this work is to assume that individual awareness is a function of several contributing factors pooled together, different by nature and dynamics, and to study it for different epidemic categories. This way, our model still has awareness as the core attribute that may change state transition probabilities. Another contribution is to study positive and negative variations of awareness, in a contagion-behavior model. Imitation is the key mechanism that we model for manipulating awareness, under different network settings and assumptions, in particular regarding the degree of intentionality that individuals may exhibit in spreading an epidemic. Three epidemic categories are considered—disease, addiction, and rumor—to discuss different imitation mechanisms and degree of intentionality. We assume a population with a heterogeneous distribution of awareness and different response mechanisms to information gathered from the network. With simulations, we show the interplay between population and awareness factors producing a distribution of state transition probabilities and analyze how different network and epidemic configurations modify transmission patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Collective behaviour is of fundamental importance in the life sciences, where it appears at levels of biological complexity from single cells to superorganisms, in demography and the social sciences, where it describes the behaviour of populations, and in the physical and engineering sciences, where it describes physical phenomena and can be used to design distributed systems. Reasoning about collective behaviour is inherently difficult, as the non-linear interactions between individuals give rise to complex emergent dynamics. Mathematical techniques have been developed to analyse systematically collective behaviour in such systems, yet these frequently require extensive formal training and technical ability to apply. Even for those with the requisite training and ability, analysis using these techniques can be laborious, time-consuming and error-prone. Together these difficulties raise a barrier-to-entry for practitioners wishing to analyse models of collective behaviour. However, rigorous modelling of collective behaviour is required to make progress in understanding and applying it. Here we present an accessible tool which aims to automate the process of modelling and analysing collective behaviour, as far as possible. We focus our attention on the general class of systems described by reaction kinetics, involving interactions between components that change state as a result, as these are easily understood and extracted from data by natural, physical and social scientists, and correspond to algorithms for component-level controllers in engineering applications. By providing simple automated access to advanced mathematical techniques from statistical physics, nonlinear dynamical systems analysis, and computational simulation, we hope to advance standards in modelling collective behaviour. At the same time, by providing expert users with access to the results of automated analyses, sophisticated investigations that could take significant effort are substantially facilitated. Our tool can be accessed online without installing software, uses a simple programmatic interface, and provides interactive graphical plots for users to develop understanding of their models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An empirical question of long-standing interest is how price promotions affect a brand’s sale shares in the fast-moving consumer-goods market. We investigated this question with concurrent promotions and sales records of specialty beer brands pooled over Tesco stores in the UK. Most brands were continuously promoted, rendering infeasible a conventional approach of establishing impact against an off-promotion sales baseline, and arguing in favor of a dynamics approach. Moreover, promotion/sales records were volatile without easily-discernable regularity. Past work conventionally attributed volatility to the impact of exogenous random shocks on stable markets, and reasoned that promotions have only an ephemeral impact on sales shares in stationary mean-reverting stochastic markets, or a persistent freely-wandering impact in nonstationary markets. We applied new empirical methods from the applied sciences to uncover an overlooked alternative: ‘systematic persistence’ in which promotional impacts evolve systematically in an endogenously-unstable market governed by deterministic-nonlinear dynamics. We reconstructed real-world market dynamics from the Tesco dataset, and detected deterministic-nonlinear market dynamics. We used reconstructed market dynamics to identify a complex network of systematic interactions between promotions and sales shares among competing brands, and quantified/characterized the dynamics of these interactions. For the majority of weeks in the study, we found that: (1) A brand’s promotions drove down own sales shares (a possibility recognized in the literature), but ‘cannibalized’ sales shares of competing brands (perhaps explaining why brands were promoted despite a negative marginal impact on own sales shares); and (2) Competitive interactions between brands owned by the same multinational brewery differed from those with outside brands. In particular, brands owned by the same brewery enjoyed a ‘mutually-beneficial’ relationship in which an incremental increase in the sales share of one marginally increased the sales share of the other. Alternatively, the sales shares of brands owned by different breweries preyed on each other’s market shares. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With green development becoming a global movement, environmental tax has been adopted by many governments to promote green development. This study analyzes the impact of environmental tax on green development by using a four-dimension dynamical system. The establishment of the system is based on the complex and dynamic interactions among economic development, pollution emissions, resources consumption, and environmental tax, where roles of environmental tax are reflected by the linear parameters. A theoretic analysis shows the complexity of the behavior of the system. Mainly, the existence of chaos is inferred by Lyapunov exponent spectrum and bifurcation diagram, then verified by the presence of a chaotic attractor. An empirical study of the green development dynamical system in China demonstrates the particular evolution paths of economic growth, pollution intensity, and resource intensity under different environmental tax parameters. Results indicate a robust beneficial role of environmental tax on green development. Furthermore, when an environmental tax is imposed, a firm government control, an active consumer awareness, an advanced technology level can stimulate economic growth, decrease pollution intensity, and control the resource intensity. But the government control has a stronger effect. This study provides a viable and promising approach to analyze the role of imposing an environmental tax on green development and may have potential application in other areas and countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spatiotemporal patterns of play can be extracted from competitive environments to design representative training tasks and underlying processes that sustain performance outcomes. To support this statement, the aims of this study were: (i) describe the collective behavioural patterns that relies upon the use of player positioning in interaction with teammates, opponents and ball positioning; (ii) and define the underlying structure among the variables through application of a factorial analysis. The sample comprised a total of 1,413 ball possession sequences, obtained from twelve elite football matches from one team (the team ended the season in the top-5 position). The dynamic position of the players (from both competing teams), as well as the ball, were captured and transformed to two-dimensional coordinates. Data included the ball possession sequences from six matches played against top opponents (TOP, the three teams classified in the first 3 places at the end of the season) and six matches against bottom opponents (BOTTOM, the three teams classified in the last 3 at the end of the season). The variables calculated for each ball possession were the following: ball position; team space in possession; game space (comprising the outfield players of both teams); position and space at the end of ball possession. Statistical comparisons were carried with magnitude-based decisions and null-hypothesis analysis and factor analysis to define the underlying structure among variables according to the considered contexts. Results showed that playing against TOP opponents, there was ~38 meters game length per ~43 meters game width with 12% of coefficient of variation (%). Ball possessions lasted for ~28 seconds and tended to end at ~83m of pitch length. Against BOTTOM opponents, a decrease in the game length with an increase in game width and in the deepest location was observed in comparison with playing against TOP opponents. The duration of ball possession increased considerable (~37 seconds), and the ball speed entropy was higher, suggesting lower levels of regularity in comparison with TOP opponents. The BOTTOM teams revealed a small EPS. The Principal Component Analysis showed a strong association of the ball speed, entropy of the ball speed and the coefficient of variation (%) of the ball speed. The EPS of the team in possession was well correlated with the game space, especially the game width facing TOP opponents. Against BOTTOM opponents, there was a strong association of ball possession duration, game width, distance covered by the ball, and length/width ratio of the ball movement. The overall approach carried out in this study may serve as the starting point to elaborate normative models of positioning behaviours measures to support the coaches’ operating decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

By using the semi-discretization technique of differential equations, the discrete analogue of a kind of cellular neural networks with stochastic perturbations and fuzzy operations is formulated, which gives a more accurate characterization for continuous-time models than that by Euler scheme. Firstly, the existence of at least one p-th mean almost periodic sequence solution of the semi-discrete stochastic models with almost periodic coefficients is investigated by using Minkowski inequality, Hölder inequality and Krasnoselskii’s fixed point theorem. Secondly, the p-th moment global exponential stability of the semi-discrete stochastic models is also studied by using some analytical skills and the proof of contradiction. Finally, a problem of stochastic stabilization for discrete cellular neural networks is studied. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Entrainment is a ubiquitous property not only of interacting non-linear dynamical systems but also of human movements. In the study reported here, two premises of entrainment theory were investigated in a tapping task conducted in both interpersonal (i.e. between individuals) and intrapersonal (i.e. between effectors) conditions. Hypothesis 1 was that interacting oscillatory systems should demonstrate synchronisation, which was predicted to emerge as in-phase tapping behaviour in both inter- and intrapersonal conditions. Support for Hypothesis 1 was observed in the in-phase synchronisation of tapping in both individual bimanual trials and uni-manual and bimanual tapping in dyads. By contrast, Hypothesis 2 was that the oscillatory system with the faster initial rate would decelerate, whereas the one with the slower initial rate would accelerate, as manifest in increased self-paced tapping rates amongst participants with initially slower rates and decreased rates amongst ones who initially tapped at faster rates. However, that pattern predicted in Hypothesis 2 was not observed; on the contrary, all participants increased their tapping rates in interpersonal conditions, which occurred significantly amongst participants with the lowest preferred tapping rates. Such an outcome indicates a novel aspect of synchronised movement in humans that warrants further investigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this work we analyze potential environmental drivers of malaria cases in Northwestern Argentina. We inspect causal links between malaria and climatic variables by means of the convergent cross mapping technique, which provides a causality criterion from the theory of dynamic systems. Analysis is based on 12 years of weekly malaria P. vivax cases in Tartagal, Salta, Argentina—at the southern fringe of malaria incidence in the Americas—together with humidity and temperature time-series spanning the same period. Our results show that there are causal links between malaria cases and both maximum temperature, with a delay of five weeks, and minimum temperature, with delays of zero and twenty two weeks. Humidity is also a driver of malaria cases, with thirteen weeks delay between cause and effect. Furthermore we also determined the sign and strength of the effects. Temperature has always a positive non-linear effect on cases, with maximum temperature effects more pronounced above 25°C and minimum above 17°C, while effects of humidity are more intricate: maximum humidity above 85% has a negative effect, whereas minimum humidity has a positive effect on cases. These results might be signaling processes operating at short (below 5 weeks) and long (over 12 weeks) time delays, corresponding to effects related to parasite cycle and mosquito population dynamics respectively. The non-linearities found for the strength of the effect of temperature on malaria cases make warmer areas more prone to higher increases in the disease incidence. Moreover, our results indicate that an increase of extreme weather events could enhance the risks of malaria spreading and re-emergence beyond the current distribution. Both situations, warmer climate and increase of extreme events, will be remarkably increased by the end of the century in this hot spot of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

State Visual Evoked Potentials (SSVEPs) arise from a resonance phenomenon in the visual cortex that is produced by a repetitive visual stimulus. SSVEPs have long been considered a steady-state response resulting from purely oscillatory components phase locked with the stimulation source, matching the stimulation frequency and its harmonics. Here we explore the dynamical character of the SSVEP response by proposing a novel non-stationary methodology for SSVEP detection based on an ensemble of Echo State Networks (ESN). The performance of this dynamical approach is compared to stationary canonical correlation analysis (CCA) for the detection of 6 visual stimulation frequencies ranging from 12 to 22 Hz. ESN-based methodology outperformed CCA, achieving an average information transfer rate of 47 bits/minute when simulating a BCI system of 6 degrees of freedom. However, for some subjects and stimulation frequencies the detection accuracy of CCA exceeds that of ESN. The comparison suggests that each methodology captures different features of the SSVEP response: while CCA captures purely stationary patterns, the ESN-based approach presented here is capable of detecting the non-stationary nature of the SSVEP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: System science approaches are increasingly used to explore complex public health problems. Quantitative methods, such as participatory dynamic simulation modelling, can mobilise knowledge to inform health policy decisions. However, the analytic and practical steps required to turn collaboratively developed, qualitative system maps into rigorous and policy-relevant quantified dynamic simulation models are not well described. This paper reports on the processes, interactions and decisions that occurred at the interface between modellers and end-user participants in an applied health sector case study focusing on diabetes in pregnancy. Methods: An analysis was conducted using qualitative data from a participatory dynamic simulation modelling case study in an Australian health policy setting. Recordings of participatory model development workshops and subsequent meetings were analysed and triangulated with field notes and other written records of discussions and decisions. Case study vignettes were collated to illustrate the deliberations and decisions made throughout the model development process. Results: The key analytic objectives and decision-making processes included: defining the model scope; analysing and refining the model structure to maximise local relevance and utility; reviewing and incorporating evidence to inform model parameters and assumptions; focusing the model on priority policy questions; communicating results and applying the models to policy processes. These stages did not occur sequentially; the model development was cyclical and iterative with decisions being re-visited and refined throughout the process. Storytelling was an effective strategy to both communicate and resolve concerns about the model logic and structure, and to communicate the outputs of the model to a broader audience. Conclusion: The in-depth analysis reported here examined the application of participatory modelling methods to move beyond qualitative conceptual mapping to the development of a rigorously quantified and policy relevant, complex dynamic simulation model. The analytic objectives and decision-making themes identified provide guidance for interpreting, understanding and reporting future participatory modelling projects and methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many complex physical systems exhibit a rich variety of discrete behavioural modes. Often, the system complexity limits the applicability of standard modelling tools. Hence, understanding the underlying physics of different behaviours and distinguishing between them is challenging. Although traditional machine learning techniques could predict and classify behaviour well, typically they do not provide any meaningful insight into the underlying physics of the system. In this paper we present a novel method for extracting physically meaningful clusters of discrete behaviour from limited experimental observations. This method obtains a set of physically plausible functions that both facilitate behavioural clustering and aid in system understanding. We demonstrate the approach on the V-shaped falling paper system, a new falling paper type system that exhibits four distinct behavioural modes depending on a few morphological parameters. Using just 49 experimental observations, the method discovered a set of candidate functions that distinguish behaviours with an error of 2.04%, while also aiding insight into the physical phenomena driving each behaviour. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, a robust sliding mode control (SMC) based on backstepping technique is studied for a microgyroscope in the presence of unknown model uncertainties and external disturbances using adaptive fuzzy compensator and fractional calculus. At first, the dynamic of microgyroscope is transformed into analogically cascade system to guarantee the application of backstepping design. Then a novel fractional differential sliding surface is proposed which integrates the capacities of the fractional calculus and SMC. In order to reduce the chattering in SMC, a fuzzy logical system is utilized to approximate the external disturbances. In addition, fractional order adaptive laws are derived to estimate the damping and stiffness coefficients and angular velocity online based on Lyapunov stability theory which also guarantees the stability of the closed loop system. Finally, simulation results signify the robustness and effectiveness of the proposed control schemes and the comparison of root mean square error under different fractional orders and integer order are given to demonstrate the better performance of proposed controller. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]