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IntroductionPrevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission (PMTCT) strategies include combined short-course antiretrovirals during pregnancy (Option A), triple-drug antiretroviral treament (ART) during pregnancy and breastfeeding (Option B), or lifelong ART (Option B+). The WHO also recommends ART for HIV treatment and prevention of sexual transmission of HIV. The impact of PMTCT strategies on prevention of sexual HIV transmission of HIV is not known. We estimated the population-level impact of PMTCT interventions on heterosexual HIV transmission in southwestern Uganda and KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, two regions with different HIV prevalence and fertility rates.Materials and methodsWe constructed and validated dynamic, stochastic, network-based HIV transmission models for each region. PMTCT Options A, B, and B+ were simulated over ten years under three scenarios: 1) current ART and PMTCT coverage, 2) current ART and high PMTCT coverage, and 3) high ART and PMTCT coverage. We compared adult HIV incidence after ten years of each intervention to Option A (and current ART) at current coverage.ResultsAt current coverage, Options B and B+ reduced heterosexual HIV incidence by about 5% and 15%, respectively, in both countries. With current ART and high PMTCT coverage, Option B+ reduced HIV incidence by 35% in Uganda and 19% in South Africa, while Option B had smaller, but meaningful, reductions. The greatest reductions in HIV incidence were achieved with high ART and PMTCT coverage. In this scenario, all PMTCT strategies yielded similar results.DiscussionImplementation of Options B/B+ reduces adult HIV incidence, with greater effect (relative to Option A at current levels) in Uganda than South Africa. These results are likely driven by Uganda's higher fertility rates.

IntroductionHIV-1 prevention programs targeting HIV-1 serodiscordant couples need to identify couples that are likely to become pregnant to facilitate discussions about methods to minimize HIV-1 risk during pregnancy attempts (i.e. safer conception) or effective contraception when pregnancy is unintended. A clinical prediction tool could be used to identify HIV-1 serodiscordant couples with a high likelihood of pregnancy within one year.MethodsUsing standardized clinical prediction methods, we developed and validated a tool to identify heterosexual East African HIV-1 serodiscordant couples with an increased likelihood of becoming pregnant in the next year. Datasets were from three prospectively followed cohorts, including nearly 7,000 couples from Kenya and Uganda participating in HIV-1 prevention trials and delivery projects.ResultsThe final score encompassed the age of the woman, woman's number of children living, partnership duration, having had condomless sex in the past month, and non-use of an effective contraceptive. The area under the curve (AUC) for the probability of the score to correctly predict pregnancy was 0.74 (95% CI 0.72-0.76). Scores ≥ 7 predicted a pregnancy incidence of >17% per year and captured 78% of the pregnancies. Internal and external validation confirmed the predictive ability of the score.DiscussionA pregnancy likelihood score encompassing basic demographic, clinical and behavioral factors defined African HIV-1 serodiscordant couples with high one-year pregnancy incidence rates. This tool could be used to engage African HIV-1 serodiscordant couples in counseling discussions about fertility intentions in order to offer services for safer conception or contraception that align with their reproductive goals.

Background: Contraceptive use has complex effects on sexual behaviour and mood, including those related to reduced concerns about unintended pregnancy, direct hormonal effects and effects on endogenous sex hormones. We set out to obtain robust evidence on the relative effects of three contraceptive methods on sex behaviours, which is important for guiding contraceptive choice and future contraceptive developments. Methods: This is a secondary analysis of data from the Evidence for Contraceptive Options and HIV Outcomes (ECHO) randomized trial in which 7,829 HIV-uninfected women from 12 sites in Eswatini, Kenya, South Africa and Zambia seeking contraception were randomly assigned to intramuscular depot-medroxyprogesterone acetate (DMPA-IM), the copper intrauterine device (Cu-IUD) or the levonorgestrel (LNG) implant. Data collected for 12 to 18 months using 3-monthly behavioural questionnaires that relied on recall from the preceding 3 months, were used to estimate relative risk of post-baseline sex behaviours, as well as sexual desire and menstrual bleeding between randomized groups using modified Poisson regression. Results: We observed small but generally consistent effects wherein DMPA-IM users reported lower prevalence of specified high risk sexual behaviours than implant users than Cu-IUD users (the '>' and '<' symbols indicate statistically significant differences): multiple sex partners 3.6% < 4.8% < 6.2% respectively; new sex partner 3.0% < 4.0% <5.3%; coital acts 16.45, 16.65, 17.12 (DMPA-IM < Cu-IUD); unprotected sex 65% < 68%, 70%; unprotected sex past 7 days 33% <36%, 37%; sex during vaginal bleeding 7.1%, 7.1% < 8.9%; no sex acts 4.1%, 3.8%, 3.4% (DMPA-IM > Cu-IUD); partner has sex with others 10% < 11%, 11%. The one exception was having any sex partner 96.5%, 96.9% < 97.4% (DMPA-IM < Cu-IUD). Decrease in sexual desire was reported by 1.6% > 1.1% >0.5%; amenorrhoea by 49% > 41% >12% and regular menstrual pattern by 26% <35% < 87% respectively. Conclusions: These findings suggest that women assigned to DMPA-IM may have a modest decrease in libido and sexual activity relative to the implant, and the implant relative to the Cu-IUD. We found more menstrual disturbance with DMPA-IM than with the implant (and as expected, both more than the Cu-IUD). These findings are important for informing the contraceptive choices of women and policymakers and highlight the need for robust comparison of the effects of other contraceptive methods as well. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BackgroundCharacterization of viruses in HIV-1 transmission pairs will help identify biological determinants of infectiousness and evaluate candidate interventions to reduce transmission. Although HIV-1 sequencing is frequently used to substantiate linkage between newly HIV-1 infected individuals and their sexual partners in epidemiologic and forensic studies, viral sequencing is seldom applied in HIV-1 prevention trials. The Partners in Prevention HSV/HIV Transmission Study (ClinicalTrials.gov #NCT00194519) was a prospective randomized placebo-controlled trial that enrolled serodiscordant heterosexual couples to determine the efficacy of genital herpes suppression in reducing HIV-1 transmission; as part of the study analysis, HIV-1 sequences were examined for genetic linkage between seroconverters and their enrolled partners.Methodology/principal findingsWe obtained partial consensus HIV-1 env and gag sequences from blood plasma for 151 transmission pairs and performed deep sequencing of env in some cases. We analyzed sequences with phylogenetic techniques and developed a Bayesian algorithm to evaluate the probability of linkage. For linkage, we required monophyletic clustering between enrolled partners' sequences and a Bayesian posterior probability of ≥ 50%. Adjudicators classified each seroconversion, finding 108 (71.5%) linked, 40 (26.5%) unlinked, and 3 (2.0%) indeterminate transmissions, with linkage determined by consensus env sequencing in 91 (84%). Male seroconverters had a higher frequency of unlinked transmissions than female seroconverters. The likelihood of transmission from the enrolled partner was related to time on study, with increasing numbers of unlinked transmissions occurring after longer observation periods. Finally, baseline viral load was found to be significantly higher among linked transmitters.Conclusions/significanceIn this first use of HIV-1 sequencing to establish endpoints in a large clinical trial, more than one-fourth of transmissions were unlinked to the enrolled partner, illustrating the relevance of these methods in the design of future HIV-1 prevention trials in serodiscordant couples. A hierarchy of sequencing techniques, analysis methods, and expert adjudication contributed to the linkage determination process.

IntroductionStable heterosexual HIV-1 serodiscordant couples in Africa have high HIV-1 transmission rates and are a critical population for evaluation of new HIV-1 prevention strategies. The Partners PrEP Study is a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of tenofovir and emtricitabine-tenofovir pre-exposure prophylaxis to decrease HIV-1 acquisition within heterosexual HIV-1 serodiscordant couples. We describe the trial design and characteristics of the study cohort.MethodsHIV-1 serodiscordant couples, in which the HIV-1 infected partner did not meet national guidelines for initiation of antiretroviral therapy, were enrolled at 9 research sites in Kenya and Uganda. The HIV-1 susceptible partner was randomized to daily oral tenofovir, emtricitabine-tenofovir, or matching placebo with monthly follow-up for 24-36 months.ResultsFrom July 2008 to November 2010, 7920 HIV-1 serodiscordant couples were screened and 4758 enrolled. For 62% (2966/4758) of enrolled couples, the HIV-1 susceptible partner was male. Median age was 33 years for HIV-1 susceptible and HIV-1 infected partners [IQR (28-40) and (26-39) respectively]. Most couples (98%) were married, with a median duration of partnership of 7.0 years (IQR 3.0-14.0) and recent knowledge of their serodiscordant status [median 0.4 years (IQR 0.1-2.0)]. During the month prior to enrollment, couples reported a median of 4 sex acts (IQR 2-8); 27% reported unprotected sex and 14% of male and 1% of female HIV-1 susceptible partners reported sex with outside partners. Among HIV-1 infected partners, the median plasma HIV-1 level was 3.94 log(10) copies/mL (IQR 3.31-4.53) and median CD4 count was 496 cells/µL (IQR 375-662); the majority (64%) had WHO stage 1 HIV-1 disease.ConclusionsCouples at high risk of HIV-1 transmission were rapidly recruited into the Partners PrEP Study, the largest efficacy trial of oral PrEP. (ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00557245).

During an HIV-1 prevention clinical trial in East Africa, we observed 16 cases of primary HIV-1 infection in women coincident with pregnancy or breastfeeding. Nine of eleven pregnant women initiated rapid combination antiretroviral therapy (ART), despite having CD4 counts exceeding national criteria for ART initiation; breastfeeding women initiated ART or replacement feeding. Rapid ART initiation during primary HIV-1 infection during pregnancy and breastfeeding is feasible in this setting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Rapid HIV assays are the mainstay of HIV testing globally. Delivery of effective biomedical HIV prevention strategies such as antiretroviral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) requires periodic HIV testing. Because rapid tests have high (>95%) but imperfect specificity, they are expected to generate some false positive results. Methods: We assessed the frequency of true and false positive rapid results in the Partners PrEP Study, a randomized, placebo-controlled trial of PrEP. HIV testing was performed monthly using 2 rapid tests done in parallel with HIV enzyme immunoassay (EIA) confirmation following all positive rapid tests. Results: A total of 99,009 monthly HIV tests were performed; 98,743 (99.7%) were dual-rapid HIV negative. Of the 266 visits with ≥1 positive rapid result, 99 (37.2%) had confirmatory positive EIA results (true positives), 155 (58.3%) had negative EIA results (false positives), and 12 (4.5%) had discordant EIA results. In the active PrEP arms, over two-thirds of visits with positive rapid test results were false positive results (69.2%, 110 of 159), although false positive results occurred at <1% (110/65,945) of total visits. Conclusions: When HIV prevalence or incidence is low due to effective HIV prevention interventions, rapid HIV tests result in a high number of false relative to true positive results, although the absolute number of false results will be low. Program roll-out for effective interventions should plan for quality assurance of HIV testing, mechanisms for confirmatory HIV testing, and counseling strategies for persons with positive rapid test results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: When manifested as Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) bacteremia, disseminated MTB infection clinically mimics other serious blood stream infections often hindering early diagnosis and initiation of potentially life-saving anti-tuberculosis therapy. In a cohort of hospitalized HIV-infected Ugandan patients with severe sepsis, we report the frequency, management and outcomes of patients with MTB bacteremia and propose a risk score based on clinical predictors of MTB bacteremia. Methods: We prospectively enrolled adult patients with severe sepsis at two Ugandan hospitals and obtained blood cultures for MTB identification. Multivariable logistic regression modeling was used to determine predictors of MTB bacteremia and to inform the stratification of patients into MTB bacteremia risk categories based on relevant patient characteristics. Results: Among 368 HIV-infected patients with a syndrome of severe sepsis, eighty-six (23%) had MTB bacteremia. Patients with MTB bacteremia had a significantly lower median CD4 count (17 vs 64 lymphocytes/mm3, p<0.001) and a higher 30-day mortality (53% vs 32%, p = 0.001) than patients without MTB bacteremia. A minority of patients with MTB bacteremia underwent standard MTB diagnostic testing (24%) or received empiric anti-tuberculosis therapy (15%). Independent factors associated with MTB bacteremia included male sex, increased heart rate, low CD4 count, absence of highly active anti-retroviral therapy, chief complaint of fever, low serum sodium and low hemoglobin. A risk score derived from a model containing these independent predictors had good predictive accuracy [area under the curve = 0.85, 95% CI 0.80–0.89]. Conclusions: Nearly 1 in 4 adult HIV-infected patients hospitalized with severe sepsis in 2 Ugandan hospitals had MTB bacteremia. Among patients in whom MTB was suspected, standard tests for diagnosing pulmonary MTB were inaccurate for correctly classifying patients with or without bloodstream MTB infection. A MTB bacteremia risk score can improve early diagnosis of MTB bacteremia particularly in settings with increased HIV and MTB co-infection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Current WHO guidelines recommend antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation at CD4 counts ≤#350 cells/µL. Increasing this threshold has been proposed, with a primary goal of reducing HIV-1 infectiousness. Because the quantity of HIV-1 in plasma is the primary predictor of HIV-1 transmission, consideration of plasma viral load in ART initiation guidelines is warranted. Methods: Using per-sex-act infectivity estimates and cross-sectional sexual behavior data from 2,484 HIV-1 infected persons with CD4 counts >350 enrolled in a study of African heterosexual HIV-1 serodiscordant couples, we calculated the number of transmissions expected and the number potentially averted under selected scenarios for ART initiation: I) CD4 count <500 cells/µL, ii) viral load ≥10,000 or ≥50,000 copies/µL and iii) universal treatment. For each scenario, we estimated the proportion of expected infections that could be averted, the proportion of infected persons initiating treatment, and the ratio of these proportions. Results: Initiating treatment at viral load ≥50,000 copies/µL would require treating 19.8% of infected persons with CD4 counts >350 while averting 40.5% of expected transmissions (ratio 2.0); treating at viral load ≥10,0000 copies/µL had a ratio of 1.5. In contrast, initiation at CD4 count <500 would require treating 41.8%, while averting 48.4% (ratio 1.1). Conclusion: Inclusion of viral load in ART initiation guidelines could permit targeting ART resources to HIV-1 infected persons who have a higher risk of transmitting HIV-1. Further work is needed to estimate costs and feasibility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Host genetic factors may be important determinants of HIV-1 sexual acquisition. We performed a genomewide association study (GWAS) for host genetic variants modifying HIV-1 acquisition and viral control in the context of a cohort of African HIV-1 serodiscordant heterosexual couples. To minimize misclassification of HIV-1 risk, we quantified HIV-1 exposure, using data including plasma HIV-1 concentrations, gender, and condom use. Methods: We matched couples without HIV-1 seroconversion to those with seroconversion by quantified HIV-1 exposure risk. Logistic regression of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for 798 samples from 496 HIV-1 infected and 302 HIV-1 exposed, uninfected individuals was performed to identify factors associated with HIV-1 acquisition. In addition, a linear regression analysis was performed using SNP data from a subset (n = 403) of HIV-1 infected individuals to identify factors predicting plasma HIV-1 concentrations. Results: After correcting for multiple comparisons, no SNPs were significantly associated with HIV-1 infection status or plasma HIV-1 concentrations. Conclusion: This GWAS controlling for HIV-1 exposure did not identify common host genotypes influencing HIV-1 acquisition. Alternative strategies, such as large-scale sequencing to identify low frequency variation, should be considered for identifying novel host genetic predictors of HIV-1 acquisition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The risk of sexual transmission of HIV-1 is strongly associated with the level of HIV-1 RNA in plasma making reduction in HIV-1 plasma levels an important target for HIV-1 prevention interventions. A quantitative understanding of the relationship of plasma HIV-1 RNA and HIV-1 transmission risk could help predict the impact of candidate HIV-1 prevention interventions that operate by reducing plasma HIV-1 levels, such as antiretroviral therapy (ART), therapeutic vaccines, and other non-ART interventions. Methodology/Principal Findings: We use prospective data collected from 2004 to 2008 in East and Southern African HIV-1 serodiscordant couples to model the relationship of plasma HIV-1 RNA levels and heterosexual transmission risk with confirmation of HIV-1 transmission events by HIV-1 sequencing. The model is based on follow-up of 3381 HIV-1 serodiscordant couples over 5017 person-years encompassing 108 genetically-linked HIV-1 transmission events. HIV-1 transmission risk was 2.27 per 100 person-years with a log-linear relationship to log10 plasma HIV-1 RNA. The model predicts that a decrease in average plasma HIV-1 RNA of 0.74 log10 copies/mL (95% CI 0.60 to 0.97) reduces heterosexual transmission risk by 50%, regardless of the average starting plasma HIV-1 level in the population and independent of other HIV-1-related population characteristics. In a simulated population with a similar plasma HIV-1 RNA distribution the model estimates that 90% of overall HIV-1 infections averted by a 0.74 copies/mL reduction in plasma HIV-1 RNA could be achieved by targeting this reduction to the 58% of the cohort with plasma HIV-1 levels ≥4 log10 copies/mL. Conclusions/Significance: This log-linear model of plasma HIV-1 levels and risk of sexual HIV-1 transmission may help estimate the impact on HIV-1 transmission and infections averted from candidate interventions that reduce plasma HIV-1 RNA levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: South Africa has the highest national burden of HIV globally. Understanding drivers of HIV acquisition in recently completed, prospective studies in which HIV was an endpoint may help inform the strategy and investments in national HIV prevention efforts and guide the design of future HIV prevention trials. We assessed HIV incidence and correlates of incidence among women enrolled in ECHO (Evidence for Contraceptive Options and HIV Outcomes), a large, open-label randomized clinical trial that compared three highly effective. reversible methods of contraception and rates of HIV acquisition., Methods: During December 2015 to October 2018, ECHO followed sexually active, HIV-seronegative women, aged 16-35 years, seeking contraceptive services and willing to be randomized to one of three contraceptive methods (intramuscular depot medroxyprogesterone acetate, copper intrauterine device, or levonorgestrel implant) for 12-18 months at nine sites in South Africa. HIV incidence based on prospectively observed HIV seroconversion events. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to define baseline cofactors related to incident HIV infection., Results: 5768 women were enrolled and contributed 7647 woman-years of follow-up. The median age was 23 years and 62.5% were ≤24 years. A total of 345 incident HIV infections occurred, an incidence of 4.51 per 100 woman-years (95%CI 4.05-5.01). Incidence was >3 per 100 woman-years at all sites. Age ≤24 years, baseline infection with sexually transmitted infections, BMI≤30, and having new or multiple partners in the three months prior to enrollment were associated with incident HIV., Conclusions: HIV incidence was high among South African women seeking contraceptive services. Integration of diagnostic management of sexually transmitted infections alongside delivery of HIV prevention options in health facilities providing contraception services are needed to mitigate ongoing risks of HIV acquisition for this vulnerable population., Clinical Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02550067 was the main Clinical Trial from which this secondary, non-randomized / observational analysis was derived with data limited to just South African sites., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Background: When manifested as Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) bacteremia, disseminated MTB infection clinically mimics other serious blood stream infections often hindering early diagnosis and initiation of potentially life-saving anti-tuberculosis therapy. In a cohort of hospitalized HIV-infected Ugandan patients with severe sepsis, we report the frequency, management and outcomes of patients with MTB bacteremia and propose a risk score based on clinical predictors of MTB bacteremia., Methods: We prospectively enrolled adult patients with severe sepsis at two Ugandan hospitals and obtained blood cultures for MTB identification. Multivariable logistic regression modeling was used to determine predictors of MTB bacteremia and to inform the stratification of patients into MTB bacteremia risk categories based on relevant patient characteristics., Results: Among 368 HIV-infected patients with a syndrome of severe sepsis, eighty-six (23%) had MTB bacteremia. Patients with MTB bacteremia had a significantly lower median CD4 count (17 vs 64 lymphocytes/mm(3), p<0.001) and a higher 30-day mortality (53% vs 32%, p = 0.001) than patients without MTB bacteremia. A minority of patients with MTB bacteremia underwent standard MTB diagnostic testing (24%) or received empiric anti-tuberculosis therapy (15%). Independent factors associated with MTB bacteremia included male sex, increased heart rate, low CD4 count, absence of highly active anti-retroviral therapy, chief complaint of fever, low serum sodium and low hemoglobin. A risk score derived from a model containing these independent predictors had good predictive accuracy [area under the curve = 0.85, 95% CI 0.80-0.89]., Conclusions: Nearly 1 in 4 adult HIV-infected patients hospitalized with severe sepsis in 2 Ugandan hospitals had MTB bacteremia. Among patients in whom MTB was suspected, standard tests for diagnosing pulmonary MTB were inaccurate for correctly classifying patients with or without bloodstream MTB infection. A MTB bacteremia risk score can improve early diagnosis of MTB bacteremia particularly in settings with increased HIV and MTB co-infection.