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Compartmental models are often used to understand and predict the progression of an infectious disease such as COVID-19. The most basic of these models consider the total population of a region to be closed. Many incorporate human mobility into their transmission dynamics, usually based on static and aggregated data. However, mobility can change dramatically during a global pandemic as seen with COVID-19, making static data unsuitable. Recently, large mobility datasets derived from mobile devices have been used, along with COVID-19 infections data, to better understand the relationship between mobility and COVID-19. However, studies to date have relied on data that represent only a fraction of their target populations, and the data from mobile devices have been used for measuring mobility within the study region, without considering changes to the population as people enter and leave the region. This work presents a unique case study in Andorra, with comprehensive datasets that include telecoms data covering 100% of mobile subscribers in the country, and results from a serology testing program that more than 90% of the population voluntarily participated in. We use the telecoms data to both measure mobility within the country and to provide a real-time census of people entering, leaving and remaining in the country. We develop multiple SEIR (compartmental) models parameterized on these metrics and show how dynamic population metrics can improve the models. We find that total daily trips did not have predictive value in the SEIR models while country entrances did. As a secondary contribution of this work, we show how Andorra's serology testing program was likely impacted by people leaving the country. Overall, this case study suggests how using mobile phone data to measure dynamic population changes could improve studies that rely on more commonly used mobility metrics and the overall understanding of a pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Border disease virus (BDV) affects a wide range of ruminants worldwide, mainly domestic sheep and goat. Since 2001 several outbreaks of disease associated to BDV infection have been described in Pyrenean chamois (Rupicapra pyrenaica pyrenaica) in Spain, France and Andorra. In order to reconstruct the most probable places of origin and pathways of dispersion of BDV among Pyrenean chamois, a phylogenetic analysis of 95 BDV 5’untranslated sequences has been performed on chamois and domestic ungulates, including novel sequences and retrieved from public databases, using a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. Discrete and continuous space phylogeography have been applied on chamois sequences dataset, using centroid positions and latitude and longitude coordinates of the animals, respectively. The estimated mean evolutionary rate of BDV sequences was 2.9×10−3 subs/site/year (95% HPD: 1.5–4.6×10−3). All the Pyrenean chamois isolates clustered in a unique highly significant clade, that originated from BDV-4a ovine clade. The introduction from sheep (dated back to the early 90s) generated a founder effect on the chamois population and the most probable place of origin of Pyrenean chamois BDV was estimated at coordinates 42.42 N and 1.9 E. The pathways of virus dispersion showed two main routes: the first started on the early 90s of the past century with a westward direction and the second arise in Central Pyrenees. The virus spread westward for more than 125 km and southward for about 50km and the estimated epidemic diffusion rate was about 13.1 km/year (95% HPD 5.2–21.4 km/year). The strong spatial structure, with strains from a single locality segregating together in homogeneous groups, and the significant pathways of viral dispersion among the areas, allowed to reconstruct both events of infection in a single area and of migrations, occurring between neighboring areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mountain areas are particularly sensitive to climate change. Species distribution models predict important extinctions in these areas whose magnitude will depend on a number of different factors. Here we examine the possible impact of climate change on the Rhododendron ferrugineum (alpenrose) niche in Andorra (Pyrenees). This species currently occupies 14.6 km2 of this country and relies on the protection afforded by snow cover in winter. We used high-resolution climatic data, potential snow accumulation and a combined forecasting method to obtain the realized niche model of this species. Subsequently, we used data from the high-resolution Scampei project climate change projection for the A2, A1B and B1 scenarios to model its future realized niche model. The modelization performed well when predicting the species’s distribution, which improved when we considered the potential snow accumulation, the most important variable influencing its distribution. We thus obtained a potential extent of about 70.7 km2 or 15.1% of the country. We observed an elevation lag distribution between the current and potential distribution of the species, probably due to its slow colonization rate and the small-scale survey of seedlings. Under the three climatic scenarios, the realized niche model of the species will be reduced by 37.9–70.1 km2 by the end of the century and it will become confined to what are today screes and rocky hillside habitats. The particular effects of climate change on seedling establishment, as well as on the species’ plasticity and sensitivity in the event of a reduction of the snow cover, could worsen these predictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: A smoke-free law came into effect in Spain on 1st January 2006, affecting all enclosed workplaces except hospitality venues, whose proprietors can choose among totally a smoke-free policy, a partial restriction with designated smoking areas, or no restriction on smoking on the premises. We aimed to evaluate the impact of the law among hospitality workers by assessing second-hand smoke (SHS) exposure and the frequency of respiratory symptoms before and one year after the ban. Methods and Finding: We formed a baseline cohort of 431 hospitality workers in Spain and 45 workers in Portugal and Andorra. Of them, 318 (66.8%) were successfully followed up 12 months after the ban, and 137 nonsmokers were included in this analysis. We obtained self-reported exposure to SHS and the presence of respiratory symptoms, and collected saliva samples for cotinine measurement. Salivary cotinine decreased by 55.6% after the ban among nonsmoker workers in venues where smoking was totally prohibited (from median of 1.6 ng/ml before to 0.5 ng/ml, p<0.01). Cotinine concentration decreased by 27.6% (p = 0.068) among workers in venues with designated smoking areas, and by 10.7% (p = 0.475) among workers in venues where smoking was allowed. In Portugal and Andorra, no differences between cotinine concentration were found before (1.2 ng/ml) and after the ban (1.2 ng/ml). In Spain, reported respiratory symptom declined significantly (by 71.9%; p<0.05) among workers in venues that became smoke-free. After adjustment for potential confounders, salivary cotinine and respiratory symptoms decreased significantly among workers in Spanish hospitality venues where smoking was totally banned. Conclusions: Among nonsmoker hospitality workers in bars and restaurants where smoking was allowed, exposure to SHS after the ban remained similar to pre-law levels. The partial restrictions on smoking in Spanish hospitality venues do not sufficiently protect hospitality workers against SHS or its consequences for respiratory health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Although some trials assessed the effectiveness of aerobic exercise for Parkinson's disease (PD), the role of aerobic exercise in the management of PD remained controversial., Objective: The purpose of this systematic review is to evaluate the evidence about whether aerobic exercise is effective for PD., Methods: Seven electronic databases, up to December 2013, were searched to identify relevant studies. Two reviewers independently extracted data and assessed methodological quality based on PEDro scale. Standardised mean difference (SMD) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of random-effects model were calculated. And heterogeneity was assessed based on the I2 statistic., Results: 18 randomized controlled trials (RCTs) with 901 patients were eligible. The aggregated results suggested that aerobic exercise should show superior effects in improving motor actions (SMD, -0.57; 95% CI -0.94 to -0.19; p = 0.003), balance (SMD, 2.02; 95% CI 0.45 to 3.59; p = 0.01), and gait (SMD, 0.33; 95% CI 0.17 to 0.49; p<0.0001) in patients with PD, but not in quality of life (SMD, 0.11; 95% CI -0.23 to 0.46; p = 0.52). And there was no valid evidence on follow-up effects of aerobic exercise for PD., Conclusion: Aerobic exercise showed immediate beneficial effects in improving motor action, balance, and gait in patients with PD. However, given no evidence on follow-up effects, large-scale RCTs with long follow-up are warrant to confirm the current findings.