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Background and Objective: Two decades ago, an international initiative (GEMINI) was launched in a high-risk, low-resource region in Northeast Iran, aiming to investigate incidence, etiology, early detection, and treatment of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). An earlier report from this area, highlighted poor ESCC survival rates, with a 5-year survival probability of 3.3% and the median survival time of 7 months. Our study assesses whether ESCC survival has improved since the implementation of the GEMINI initiative in this region., Material and Methods: 490 adult patients with histologically-confirmed ESCC were recruited from the Atrak clinic, Golestan, Iran, between 2007 and 2018. At recruitment, information on demographics and various exposures were collected. Active (telephone surveys) and passive (linkage to Golestan population-based cancer and death registries) follow-up methods were used to determine patients' vital status though March 2019. Survival estimates were obtained by Kaplan-Meier method and Cox proportional hazards regression models., Results: Over the study period 340 deaths were recorded. Five-year ESCC survival probability was 23% (95% Confidence Interval: 19% to 28%), and the median survival time was 19 months. Five-year survival probability was higher among individuals who were younger (35% in <60-year-olds vs. 12% for >70-year-olds, p<0.001), educated (34% vs. 21% for no formal education, p = 0.027), never used opium (28% vs. 15%, p = 0.0016), and received cancer treatment (37% vs. 4%, p<0.001). In the adjusted models, a higher hazard of death was associated with older age [HR for each 10-year increase = 1.36 (95% CI = 1.22 to 1.51)], Turkman ethnicity [HR = 1.35 (95%CI: 1.07 to 1.70)], opium use [HR = 1.53 (95%CI: 1.20 to 1.94)],and receiving no cancer treatment [HR = 5.81 (95%CI: 3.97 to 8.52)]., Conclusion: Over the last two decades, ESCC survival in this population has significantly improved, highlighting the potential of enhancing healthcare infrastructure and ensuring access to affordable medical care in resource-limited, high-risk regions. Older age at diagnosis, Turkman ethnicity, opium use, and untreated cases (indicative of advanced disease at diagnosis) were identified as the main ESCC prognostic factors in this population., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2024 Nemati et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Oral bacteria play important roles in human health and disease. Oral samples collected using ethanol-containing mouthwash are widely used for oral microbiome studies. However, ethanol is flammable and not ideal for transportation/storage in large quantities, and some individuals may avoid ethanol due to the burning sensation or due to various personal, medical, religious, and/or cultural factors. Here, we compared ethanol-free and ethanol-containing mouthwashes using multiple microbiome metrics and assessed the stability of the mouthwash samples stored up to 10 days before processing. Forty volunteers provided oral wash samples collected using ethanol-free and ethanol-containing mouthwashes. From each sample, one aliquot was immediately frozen, one was stored at 4°C for 5 days and frozen, while the third aliquot was stored for 5 days at 4°C and 5 days at ambient temperature to mimic shipping delays and then frozen. DNA was extracted, the 16S rRNA gene V4 region was amplified and sequenced, and bioinformatic processing was performed using QIIME 2. Microbiome metrics measured in the two mouthwash types were very similar, with intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) for alpha and beta diversity metrics greater than 0.85. Relative abundances of some taxa were significantly different, but ICCs of the top four most abundant phyla and genera were high (> 0.75) for the comparability of the mouthwashes. Stability during delayed processing was also high for both mouthwashes based on alpha and beta diversity measures and relative abundances of the top four phyla and genera (ICCs ≥ 0.90). These results demonstrate ethanol-free mouthwash performs similarly to ethanol-containing mouthwash for microbial analyses, and both mouthwashes are stable for at least 10 days without freezing prior to laboratory processing. Ethanol-free mouthwash is suitable for collecting and shipping oral wash samples, and these results have important implications for planning future epidemiologic studies of the oral microbiome., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: This is an open access article, free of all copyright, and may be freely reproduced, distributed, transmitted, modified, built upon, or otherwise used by anyone for any lawful purpose. The work is made available under the Creative Commons CC0 public domain dedication.)

Background: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is among the most common cancers in economically developed countries and developing world. While dietary factors are associated with risk of CRC in the West and urban China, little is known about risk or protective factors in rural China., Methods: The Linxian General Population Nutrition Intervention Trial (NIT) cohort was established over 30 years ago to test whether daily multivitamin/mineral supplements could reduce the incidence and mortality of esophageal/gastric cardia cancer. The cohort included a total of 29,553 healthy participants 40-69 years old who were randomly assigned to supplements or placebos via a 24 fractional factorial study design. We examined risk factors for the development of CRC as well as the effects of four different nutritional factors (Factor A: retinol, zinc; B: riboflavin, niacin; C: ascorbic acid, molybdenum; D: selenium, alpha-tocopherol, beta-carotene,) on CRC incidence following 5.25 years of supplementation in this randomized, placebo-controlled intervention trial., Results: CRC risk increased with age and height as well as piped water usage, family history of CRC, and consumption of foods cooked in oil, eggs, and fresh fruits. No effect on CRC was seen for any of these four intervention factors tested in both genders, but CRC was reduced 37% in females who received Factor D (selenium/alpha-tocopherol/beta-carotene) (RR = 0.63, 95% CI = 0.43-0.92, P = 0.016) compared to females who did not receive Factor D., Conclusions: In this undernourished rural Chinese population, CRC risk factors in this Chinese cohort showed both similarities and differences compared to Western and urban Asian Chinese populations. Intervention results suggested a potential benefit for women supplemented with selenium/alpha-tocopherol/beta-carotene., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Background: Potato consumption has been hypothesized to be associated with higher risk of hypertension, diabetes, and colorectal cancer., Objective: The aim of this study was to examine the association between potato consumption and the risk of overall and cause specific mortality in the large prospective National Institutes of Health-AARP (NIH-AARP) Study., Design: The NIH-AARP study recruited 566,407 persons, aged 50-72 years in 1995-1996. We excluded subjects that reported a history of chronic disease at baseline. Potato consumption data from a validated food frequency questionnaire completed at baseline was used in Cox proportional hazard models to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for overall and cause specific mortality. Final models were adjusted for potential risk factors for mortality., Results: Among 410,701 participants included in this analysis, 76,921 persons died during the 15.6 years of follow-up. Eating baked, boiled, or mashed potatoes, French fries or potato salad seven or more times per week was associated with higher risk of overall mortality, in models adjusted only for age and sex (HR C4 vs C1 = 1.17, 95%CI = 1.13, 1.21). These results were attenuated in fully adjusted models (HR C4 vs C1 = 1.02, 95%CI = 0.97, 1.06). Potato consumption was not associated with risk of mortality caused by cancer (HR C4 vs C1 = 1.04, 95%CI = 0.97, 1.11), heart disease (HR C4 vs C1 = 1.00, 95%CI = 0.93, 1.09), respiratory disease (HR C4 vs C1 = 1.16, 95%CI = 0.99, 1.37), or diabetes (HR C4 vs C1 = 0.91, 95%CI = 0.71, 1.19). We tested for an association with different preparation methods and found limited evidence for differences by preparation method. The only statistically significant association was that for French fry consumption with cancer-related mortality (HR C4 vs C1 = 1.27, 95%CI = 1.02, 1.59), a finding for which uncontrolled confounding could not be ruled out., Conclusion: We find little evidence that potato consumption is associated with all-cause or cause-specific mortality., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Background: Tooth loss has been reported to be associated with the risk of liver cancer in several prior studies in economically advantaged countries. Whether this relationship is also evident in economically disadvantaged populations is not known., Methods: We analyzed data from the Nutrition Intervention Trials, two randomized placebo-controlled trials of vitamin/mineral supplementation in Linxian, China. Participants who reported having lost permanent teeth were examined to determine the number of teeth remaining. In the 30-year follow-up period, 329 liver cancers were diagnosed and 368 chronic liver disease deaths occurred. Tooth loss was categorized based on loess smoothed age-specific predicted quartiles. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the two outcomes., Results: Overall, persons in the highest quartile of age-specific tooth loss had an increased risk of liver cancer (HR = 1.27, 95%CI: 0.96, 1.67) which was not statistically significant. Results varied by sex and body mass index (BMI), however. Women in the highest quartile of age-specific tooth loss had a significantly increased risk (HR = 1.64, 95%CI: 1.04, 2.59), while men did not (HR = 1.08, 95%CI = 0.75, 1.57), and persons with a BMI > 23.0 kg/m2 (HR = 1.71, 95%CI: 1.00, 2.92) had a significantly increased risk, while persons with a BMI <23.0 kg/m2 did not (HR = 1.14, 95%CI: 0.82, 1.5). No relationships with chronic liver disease mortality were observed., Conclusions: In a rural, economically disadvantaged population, persons with the highest levels of age-specific tooth loss had an increased risk of liver cancer. The results, which were stronger among women and persons with greater BMI, suggest that periodontal disease may increase risk of liver cancer., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Background: It is unknown why a minority of women fail to clear human papillomavirus (HPV) and develop precancer/cancer. Differences in T-cell receptor (TCR) repertoires may identify HPV16-infected women at highest-risk for progression to cancer. We conducted a proof-of-principle study nested within the Guanacaste HPV Natural History Study to evaluate the utility of next-generation sequencing for interrogating the TCR repertoires among women who cleared and failed to clear cervical HPV16., Methods: TCR repertoires of women with HPV16-related intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or higher (CIN3+; n = 25) were compared to women who cleared an incident HPV16 infection without developing precancer/cancer (n = 25). TCR diversity (richness and evenness) and relative abundance (RA) of gene segment (V [n = 51], D [n = 2], J [n = 13]) usage was evaluated; receiver operating curve analysis assessed the ability to differentiate case-control status., Results: TCR repertoire richness was associated with CIN3+ status (P = 0.001). Relative abundance (RA) of V-gene segments was enriched for associations between cases and controls. A single V-gene (TRBV6-7) was significantly associated with CIN3+ status (RA = 0.11%, 0.16%, among cases and controls, respectively, Bonferroni P = 0.0008). The estimated area under the curve using richness and V-gene segment RA was 0.83 (95% confidence interval: 0.73-0.90)., Conclusions: Substantial differences in TCR repertoire among women with CIN3+ compared to women who cleared infection were observed., Impact: This is the first study to use next-generation sequencing to investigate TCR repertoire in the context of HPV infection. These findings suggest that women with HPV16-associated cervical lesions have significantly different TCR repertoires from disease-free women who cleared HPV16 infection.

Background: Esophageal adenocarcinoma (EA) is characterized by a strong male predominance. Sex steroid hormones have been hypothesized to underlie this sex disparity, but no population-based study to date has examined this potential association., Methods: Using mass spectrometry and ELISA, we quantitated sex steroid hormones and sex hormone binding globulin, respectively, in plasma from males- 172 EA cases and 185 controls-within the Factors Influencing the Barrett/Adenocarcinoma Relationship (FINBAR) Study, a case-control investigation conducted in Northern Ireland and Ireland. Multivariable adjusted logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations between circulating hormones and EA., Results: Higher androgen:estrogen ratio metrics were associated with increased odds of EA (e.g., testosterone:estradiol ratio ORQ4 v. Q1 = 2.58, 95%CI = 1.23-5.43; Ptrend = 0.009). All estrogens and androgens were associated with significant decreased odds of EA. When restricted to individuals with minimal to no decrease in body mass index, the size of association for the androgen:estrogen ratio was not greatly altered., Conclusions: This first study of sex steroid hormones and EA provides tentative evidence that androgen:estrogen balance may be a factor related to EA. Replication of these findings in prospective studies is needed to enhance confidence in the causality of this effect.

Alcohol is a known carcinogen that may be associated with colorectal cancer. However, most epidemiologic studies assess alcoholic beverage consumption using self-reported data, leading to potential exposure misclassification. Biomarkers of alcohol consumption may provide an alternative, complementary approach that reduces misclassification and incorporates individual differences in alcohol metabolism. Therefore, we evaluated the relationship between previously identified alcohol consumption-related metabolites and colorectal cancer and adenoma using serum metabolomics data from two studies. Data on colorectal cancer were obtained from a nested case-control study of 502 US adults (252 cases, 250 controls) within the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial. Data on colorectal adenoma were obtained from a case-control study of 197 US adults (120 cases, 77 controls) from the Navy Colon Adenoma Study. Unconditional multivariable logistic regression models were fit to calculate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for eight alcohol consumption-related metabolites identified in a previous analysis: ethyl glucuronide; 4-androstene-3beta,17beta-diol disulfate 1; 5-alpha-androstan-3beta,17beta-diol disulfate; 16-hydroxypalmitate; bilirubin (E,Z or Z,E); cyclo (-leu-pro); dihomo-linoleate (20:2n6); and palmitoleate (16:1n7). We found no clear association between these alcohol consumption-related metabolites and either endpoint. However, we did observe an inverse association between cyclo (-leu-pro) and colorectal adenoma that was only observed in the highest metabolite quantile (OR 4th vs. 1st Quantile = 0.30, 95% CI: 0.12-0.78; P-trend = 0.047), but no association for colorectal cancer. In conclusion, there were no adverse associations between alcohol consumption-related metabolites and colorectal cancer or adenoma.

Background: Removal of the appendix might induce physiological changes in the gastrointestinal tract, and subsequently play a role in carcinogenesis. Therefore, we conducted a nationwide register-based cohort study in Sweden to investigate whether appendectomy is associated with altered risks of gastrointestinal cancers., Methods: A population-based cohort study was conducted using the Swedish national registries, including 480,382 eligible patients followed during the period of 1970-2009 for the occurrence of site-specific gastrointestinal cancer (esophageal/gastric/colon/rectal cancer). Outcome and censoring information was collected by linkage to health and demography registers. We examined the incidence of appendectomy in Sweden using data from 1987-2009. We also calculated standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) to estimate the relative gastrointestinal cancer risk through comparison to the general population., Results: We noted an overall decrease in the age-standardized incidence of appendectomy among the entire Swedish population from 189.3 to 105.6 per 100,000 individuals between 1987 and 2009. Grouped by different discharge diagnosis, acute appendicitis, incidental appendectomy, and entirely negative appendectomy continuously decreased over the study period, while the perforation ratio (18%-23%) stayed relatively constant. Compared to the general population, no excess cancer risk was observed for gastrointestinal cancers under study with the exception of a marginally elevated risk for esophageal adenocarcinoma (SIR 1.32, 95% CI 1.09-1.58)., Conclusions: In Sweden, the incidence of appendectomy and acute appendicitis has decreased during 1987-2009. No excess gastrointestinal cancer risks were observed among these appendectomized patients, with the possible exception of esophageal adenocarcinoma.

The association between oral bisphosphonate use and upper gastrointestinal cancer has been controversial. Therefore, we examined the association with esophageal and gastric cancer within the Kaiser Permanente, Northern California population. A total of 1,011 cases of esophageal (squamous cell carcinoma and adenocarcinoma) and 1,923 cases of gastric adenocarcinoma (cardia, non-cardia and other) diagnosed between 1997 and 2011 from the Kaiser Permanente, Northern California cancer registry were matched to 49,886 and 93,747 controls, respectively. Oral bisphosphonate prescription fills at least one year prior to the index date were extracted. Conditional logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for the associations between prospectively evaluated oral bisphosphonate use with incident esophageal and gastric cancer diagnoses with adjustment for potential confounders. After adjustment for potential confounders, no significant associations were found for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (OR 0.88; 95% CI: 0.51, 1.52), esophageal adenocarcinoma (OR 0.68; 95% CI: 0.37, 1.24), or gastric non-cardia adenocarcinoma (OR 0.83, 95% CI: 0.59, 1.18), but we observed an adverse association with gastric cardia adenocarcinoma (OR 1.64; 95% CI: 1.07, 2.50). In conclusion, we observed no association between oral bisphosphonate use and esophageal cancer risk within a large community-based population. A significant association was detected with gastric cardia and other adenocarcinoma risk, although this needs to be replicated.

Background: Gastric cancer (GC) is the world's fifth most common cancer, and the third leading cause of cancer-related death. Over 70% of incident cases and deaths occur in developing countries. We explored whether disparities in access to improved drinking water sources were associated with GC risk in the Golestan Gastric Cancer Case Control Study., Methods and Findings: 306 cases and 605 controls were matched on age, gender, and place of residence. We conducted unconditional logistic regression to calculate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI), adjusted for age, gender, ethnicity, marital status, education, head of household education, place of birth and residence, homeownership, home size, wealth score, vegetable consumption, and H. pylori seropositivity. Fully-adjusted ORs were 0.23 (95% CI: 0.05-1.04) for chlorinated well water, 4.58 (95% CI: 2.07-10.16) for unchlorinated well water, 4.26 (95% CI: 1.81-10.04) for surface water, 1.11 (95% CI: 0.61-2.03) for water from cisterns, and 1.79 (95% CI: 1.20-2.69) for all unpiped sources, compared to in-home piped water. Comparing unchlorinated water to chlorinated water, we found over a two-fold increased GC risk (OR 2.37, 95% CI: 1.56-3.61)., Conclusions: Unpiped and unchlorinated drinking water sources, particularly wells and surface water, were significantly associated with the risk of GC.

Background: Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are becoming major causes of death in developing countries. Risk scoring systems for CVD are needed to prioritize allocation of limited resources. Most of these risk score algorithms have been based on a long array of risk factors including blood markers of lipids. However, risk scoring systems that solely use office-based data, not including laboratory markers, may be advantageous. In the current analysis, we validated the office-based Framingham risk scoring system in Iran., Methods: The study used data from the Golestan Cohort in North-East of Iran. The following risk factors were used in the development of the risk scoring method: sex, age, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, hypertension treatment, current smoking, and diabetes. Cardiovascular risk functions for prediction of 10-year risk of fatal CVDs were developed., Results: A total of 46,674 participants free of CVD at baseline were included. Predictive value of estimated risks was examined. The resulting Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) was 0.774 (95% CI: 0.762-0.787) in all participants, 0.772 (95% CI: 0.753-0.791) in women, and 0.763 (95% CI: 0.747-0.779) in men. AUC was higher in urban areas (0.790, 95% CI: 0.766-0.815). The predicted and observed risks of fatal CVD were similar in women. However, in men, predicted probabilities were higher than observed., Conclusion: The AUC in the current study is comparable to results of previous studies while lipid profile was replaced by body mass index to develop an office-based scoring system. This scoring algorithm is capable of discriminating individuals at high risk versus low risk of fatal CVD.

Background: Barrett's esophagus (BE) is a metaplastic precursor lesion of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EA), the most rapidly increasing cancer in western societies. While the prevalence of BE is increasing, the vast majority of EA occurs in patients with undiagnosed BE. Thus, we sought to identify genes that are altered in BE compared to the normal mucosa of the esophagus, and which may be potential biomarkers for the development or diagnosis of BE., Design: We performed gene expression analysis using HG-U133A Affymetrix chips on fresh frozen tissue samples of Barrett's metaplasia and matched normal mucosa from squamous esophagus (NE) and gastric cardia (NC) in 40 BE patients., Results: Using a cut off of 2-fold and P<1.12E-06 (0.05 with Bonferroni correction), we identified 1324 differentially-expressed genes comparing BE vs NE and 649 differentially-expressed genes comparing BE vs NC. Except for individual genes such as the SOXs and PROM1 that were dysregulated only in BE vs NE, we found a subset of genes (n = 205) whose expression was significantly altered in both BE vs NE and BE vs NC. These genes were overrepresented in different pathways, including TGF-β and Notch., Conclusion: Our findings provide additional data on the global transcriptome in BE tissues compared to matched NE and NC tissues which should promote further understanding of the functions and regulatory mechanisms of genes involved in BE development, as well as insight into novel genes that may be useful as potential biomarkers for the diagnosis of BE in the future.

Background: Gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) is a common cause of discomfort and morbidity worldwide. However, information on determinants of GERD from large-scale studies in low- to medium-income countries is limited. We investigated the factors associated with different measures of GERD symptoms, including frequency, patient-perceived severity, and onset time., Methods: We performed a cross-sectional analysis of the baseline data from a population-based cohort study of ∼ 50,000 individuals in in Golestan Province, Iran. GERD symptoms in this study included regurgitation and/or heartburn., Results: Approximately 20% of participants reported at least weekly symptoms. Daily symptoms were less commonly reported by men, those of Turkmen ethnicity, and nass chewers. On the other hand, age, body mass index, alcohol drinking, cigarette smoking, opium use, lower socioeconomic status, and lower physical activity were associated with daily symptoms. Most of these factors showed similar associations with severe symptoms. Women with higher BMI and waist to hip ratio were more likely to report frequent and severe GERD symptoms. Hookah smoking (OR 1.34, 95% CI 1.02-1.75) and opium use (OR 1.70, 95% CI 1.55-1.87) were associated with severe symptoms, whereas nass chewing had an inverse association (OR 0.87, 95% CI 0.76-0.99). After exclusion of cigarette smokers, hookah smoking was still positively associated and nass chewing was inversely associated with GERD symptoms (all frequencies combined)., Conclusion: GERD is common in this population. The associations of hookah and opium use and inverse association of nass use with GERD symptoms are reported for the first time. Further studies are required to investigate the nature of these associations. Other determinants of GERD were mostly comparable to those reported elsewhere.

We examined the association of use of multivitamins or single vitamin/mineral supplements with risk of four upper gastrointestinal cancers in the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study cohort with 11 years of follow-up. After exclusions, 490,593 persons were included in our analytic cohort and 1780 upper gastrointestinal cancers were accrued. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using Cox models with adjustment for potential confounders. We observed no significant associations between multivitamin use and risk for the four cancer outcomes in crude or adjusted models. Among individual vitamin or mineral supplements, use of iron supplements was associated with significantly lower risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma (HR = 0.68, 95% CI = 0.49 to 0.94) and a significantly increased risk of gastric noncardia adenocarcinoma (HR = 1.59, 95% CI = 1.24 to 2.05). For gastric noncardia adenocarcinoma, we saw associations with zinc use (HR = 1.28, 95% CI = 1.01 to 1.62) and vitamin C use (HR = 0.79 95% CI = 0.65 to 0.96). Calcium use, some of which was reported as antacids and used to treat reflux disease, was associated with higher risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma (HR = 1.27, 95% CI = 1.06 to 1.52) and gastric cardia adenocarcinoma (HR = 1.27, 95% CI = 1.03 to 1.56) cancers. We saw no evidence that multivitamin use was associated with reduced risk of four highly fatal upper gastrointestinal cancers, but there were some differences in risk with reported use of individual supplements.

Introduction: Body mass index is known to be positively associated with an increased risk of adenocarcinomas of the esophagus, yet there is there limited evidence on whether physical activity or sedentary behavior affects risk of histology- and site-specific upper gastrointestinal cancers. We used the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study to assess these exposures in relation to esophageal adenocarcinoma (EA), esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC), gastric cardia adenocarcinoma (GCA), and gastric non-cardia adenocarcinoma (GNCA)., Methods: Self-administered questionnaires were used to elicit physical activity and sedentary behavior exposures at various age periods. Cohort members were followed via linkage to the US Postal Service National Change of Address database, the Social Security Administration Death Master File, and the National Death Index. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95 percent confidence intervals (95%CI)., Results: During 4.8 million person years, there were a total of 215 incident ESCCs, 631 EAs, 453 GCAs, and 501 GNCAs for analysis. Strenuous physical activity in the last 12 months (HR(>5 times/week vs. never)=0.58, 95%CI: 0.39, 0.88) and typical physical activity and sports during ages 15-18 years (p for trend=0.01) were each inversely associated with GNCA risk. Increased sedentary behavior was inversely associated with EA (HR(5-6 hrs/day vs. <1 hr)=0.57, 95%CI: 0.36, 0.92). There was no evidence that BMI was a confounder or effect modifier of any relationship. After adjustment for multiple testing, none of these results were deemed to be statistically significant at p<0.05., Conclusions: We find evidence for an inverse association between physical activity and GNCA risk. Associations between body mass index and adenocarcinomas of the esophagus do not appear to be related to physical activity and sedentary behavior.

The epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) signaling pathway regulates cell proliferation, differentiation, and survival, and is frequently dysregulated in esophageal and gastric cancers. Few studies have comprehensively examined the association between germline genetic variants in the EGFR pathway and risk of esophageal and gastric cancers. Based on a genome-wide association study in a Han Chinese population, we examined 3443 SNPs in 127 genes in the EGFR pathway for 1942 esophageal squamous cell carcinomas (ESCCs), 1758 gastric cancers (GCs), and 2111 controls. SNP-level analyses were conducted using logistic regression models. We applied the resampling-based adaptive rank truncated product approach to determine the gene- and pathway-level associations. The EGFR pathway was significantly associated with GC risk (P = 2.16×10(-3)). Gene-level analyses found 10 genes to be associated with GC, including FYN, MAPK8, MAP2K4, GNAI3, MAP2K1, TLN1, PRLR, PLCG2, RPS6KB2, and PIK3R3 (P<0.05). For ESCC, we did not observe a significant pathway-level association (P = 0.72), but gene-level analyses suggested associations between GNAI3, CHRNE, PAK4, WASL, and ITCH, and ESCC (P<0.05). Our data suggest an association between specific genes in the EGFR signaling pathway and risk of GC and ESCC. Further studies are warranted to validate these associations and to investigate underlying mechanisms.

Background: Control selection is a major challenge in epidemiologic case-control studies. The aim of our study was to evaluate using hospital versus neighborhood control groups in studying risk factors of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC)., Methodology/principal Findings: We compared the results of two different case-control studies of ESCC conducted in the same region by a single research group. Case definition and enrollment were the same in the two studies, but control selection differed. In the first study, we selected two age- and sex-matched controls from inpatient subjects in hospitals, while for the second we selected two age- and sex-matched controls from each subject's neighborhood of residence. We used the test of heterogeneity to compare the results of the two studies. We found no significant differences in exposure data for tobacco-related variables such as cigarette smoking, chewing Nass (a tobacco product) and hookah (water pipe) usage, but the frequency of opium usage was significantly different between hospital and neighborhood controls. Consequently, the inference drawn for the association between ESCC and tobacco use did not differ between the studies, but it did for opium use. In the study using neighborhood controls, opium use was associated with a significantly increased risk of ESCC (adjusted OR 1.77, 95% CI 1.17-2.68), while in the study using hospital controls, this was not the case (OR 1.09, 95% CI 0.63-1.87). Comparing the prevalence of opium consumption in the two control groups and a cohort enrolled from the same geographic area suggested that the neighborhood controls were more representative of the study base population for this exposure., Conclusions/significance: Hospital and neighborhood controls did not lead us to the same conclusion for a major hypothesized risk factor for ESCC in this population. Our results show that control group selection is critical in drawing appropriate conclusions in observational studies.

Background: To establish optimal cutoff values for serologic diagnosis of fundic atrophy in a high-risk area for oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma and gastric cancer with high prevalence of Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) in Northern Iran, we performed an endoscopy-room-based validation study., Methods: We measured serum pepsinogens I (PGI) and II (PGII), gastrin 17 (G-17), and antibodies against whole H. pylori, or cytotoxin-associated gene A (CagA) antigen among 309 consecutive patients in two major endoscopy clinics in northeastern Iran. Updated Sydney System was used as histology gold standard. Areas under curves (AUCs), optimal cutoff and predictive values were calculated for serum biomarkers against the histology., Results: 309 persons were recruited (mean age: 63.5 years old, 59.5% female). 84.5% were H. pylori positive and 77.5% were CagA positive. 21 fundic atrophy and 101 nonatrophic pangastritis were diagnosed. The best cutoff values in fundic atrophy assessment were calculated at PGI<56 µg/l (sensitivity: 61.9%, specificity: 94.8%) and PGI/PGII ratio<5 (sensitivity: 75.0%, specificity: 91.0%). A serum G-17<2.6 pmol/l or G-17>40 pmol/l was 81% sensitive and 73.3% specific for diagnosing fundic atrophy. At cutoff concentration of 11.8 µg/l, PGII showed 84.2% sensitivity and 45.4% specificity to distinguish nonatrophic pangastritis. Exclusion of nonatrophic pangastritis enhanced diagnostic ability of PGI/PGII ratio (from AUC = 0.66 to 0.90) but did not affect AUC of PGI. After restricting study samples to those with PGII<11.8, the sensitivity of using PGI<56 to define fundic atrophy increased to 83.3% (95%CI 51.6-97.9) and its specificity decreased to 88.8% (95%CI 80.8-94.3)., Conclusions: Among endoscopy clinic patients, PGII is a sensitive marker for extension of nonatrophic gastritis toward the corpus. PGI is a stable biomarker in assessment of fundic atrophy and has similar accuracy to PGI/PGII ratio among populations with prevalent nonatrophic pangastritis.

The rising epidemic of diabetes imposes a substantial economic burden on the Middle East. Using baseline data from a population based cohort study, we aimed to identify the correlates of diabetes mellitus (DM) in a mainly rural population from Iran. Between 2004 and 2007, 50044 adults between 30 and 87 years old from Golestan Province located in Northeast Iran were enrolled in the Golestan Cohort Study. Demographic and health-related information was collected using questionnaires. Individuals' body sizes at ages 15 and 30 were assessed by validated pictograms ranging from 1 (very lean) to 7 in men and 9 in women. DM diagnosis was based on the self-report of a physician's diagnosis. The accuracy of self-reported DM was evaluated in a subcohort of 3811 individuals using fasting plasma glucose level and medical records. Poisson regression with robust variance estimator was used to estimate prevalence ratios (PR's). The prevalence of self-reported DM standardized to the national and world population was 5.7% and 6.2%, respectively. Self-reported DM had 61.5% sensitivity and 97.6% specificity. Socioeconomic status was inversely associated with DM prevalence. Green tea and opium consumption increased the prevalence of DM. Obesity at all ages and extreme leanness in childhood increased diabetes prevalence. Being obese throughout life doubled DM prevalence in women (PR: 2.1; 95% CI: 1.8, 2.4). These findings emphasize the importance of improving DM awareness, improving general living conditions, and early lifestyle modifications in diabetes prevention.

Background: Golestan Province in northeastern Iran has one of the highest incidences of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) in the world with rates over 50 per 100,000 person-years in both sexes. We have analyzed TP53 mutation patterns in tumors from this high-risk geographic area in search of clues to the mutagenic processes involved in causing ESCC., Methodology/principal Findings: Biopsies of 119 confirmed ESCC tumor tissue from subjects enrolled in a case-control study conducted in Golestan Province were analyzed by direct sequencing of TP53 exons 2 through 11. Immunohistochemical staining for p53 was carried out using two monoclonal antibodies, DO7 and 1801. A total of 120 TP53 mutations were detected in 107/119 cases (89.9%), including 11 patients with double or triple mutations. The mutation pattern was heterogeneous with infrequent mutations at common TP53 "hotspots" but frequent transversions potentially attributable to environmental carcinogens forming bulky DNA adducts, including 40% at bases known as site of mutagenesis by polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). Mutations showed different patterns according to the reported temperature of tea consumption, but no variation was observed in relation to ethnicity, tobacco or opium use, and alcoholic beverage consumption or urban versus rural residence., Conclusion/significance: ESCC tumors in people from Golestan Province show the highest rate of TP53 mutations ever reported in any cancer anywhere. The heterogeneous mutation pattern is highly suggestive of a causative role for multiple environmental carcinogens, including PAHs. The temperature and composition of tea may also influence mutagenesis.

Certain geographically distinct areas of the world have very high rates of esophageal cancer (EC). Previous studies have identified western Kenya as a high risk area for EC with an unusual percentage of cases in subjects 30 years of age or younger. To better understand EC in these young patients, we abstracted available data on all 109 young patients diagnosed with EC at Tenwek Hospital, Bomet District, Kenya from January 1996 through June 2009, including age at diagnosis, sex, ethnicity, tumor histology, residence location, and medical interventions. We also attempted to contact all patients or a family member and obtained information on ethnicity, tobacco and alcohol use, family history of cancer, and survival. Sixty (55%) representatives of the 109 young patients were successfully interviewed. The median survival time of these 60 patients was 6.4 months, the most common tumor histology was esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) (98%), the M:F ratio was 1.4∶1, and only a few subjects used tobacco (15%) or alcohol (15%). Seventy-nine percent reported a family history of cancer and 43% reported having a family history of EC. In summary, this case series describes the largest number of young EC patients reported to date, and it highlights the uniqueness of the EC experience in western Kenya.

Background: Verbal autopsy (VA) is one method to obtain valid estimates of causes of death in the absence of valid medical records. We tested the reliability and validity of a VA questionnaire developed for a cohort study in Golestan Province in northeastern Iran., Method: A modified version of the WHO adult verbal autopsy was used to assess the cause of death in the first 219 Golestan Cohort Study (GCS) subjects who died. The GCS cause of death was determined by two internists who independently reviewed all available medical records. Two other internists ("reviewers") independently reviewed only the VA answers and classified the cause of death into one of nine general categories; they repeated this evaluation one month later. The reliability of the VA was measured by calculating intra-reviewer and inter-reviewer kappa statistics. The validity of the VA was measured using the GCS cause of death as the gold standard., Results: VA showed both good validity (sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV all above 0.81) and reliability (kappa>0.75) in determining the general cause of death independent of sex and place of residence. The overall multi-rater agreement across four reviews was 0.84 (95%CI: 0.78-0.89). The results for identifying specific cancer deaths were also promising, especially for upper GI cancers (kappa = 0.95). The multi-rater agreement in cancer subgroup was 0.93 (95%CI: 0.85-0.99)., Conclusions: VA seems to have good reliability and validity for determining the cause of death in a large-scale adult follow up study in a predominantly rural area of a middle-income country.