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In this work we analyze potential environmental drivers of malaria cases in Northwestern Argentina. We inspect causal links between malaria and climatic variables by means of the convergent cross mapping technique, which provides a causality criterion from the theory of dynamic systems. Analysis is based on 12 years of weekly malaria P. vivax cases in Tartagal, Salta, Argentina—at the southern fringe of malaria incidence in the Americas—together with humidity and temperature time-series spanning the same period. Our results show that there are causal links between malaria cases and both maximum temperature, with a delay of five weeks, and minimum temperature, with delays of zero and twenty two weeks. Humidity is also a driver of malaria cases, with thirteen weeks delay between cause and effect. Furthermore we also determined the sign and strength of the effects. Temperature has always a positive non-linear effect on cases, with maximum temperature effects more pronounced above 25°C and minimum above 17°C, while effects of humidity are more intricate: maximum humidity above 85% has a negative effect, whereas minimum humidity has a positive effect on cases. These results might be signaling processes operating at short (below 5 weeks) and long (over 12 weeks) time delays, corresponding to effects related to parasite cycle and mosquito population dynamics respectively. The non-linearities found for the strength of the effect of temperature on malaria cases make warmer areas more prone to higher increases in the disease incidence. Moreover, our results indicate that an increase of extreme weather events could enhance the risks of malaria spreading and re-emergence beyond the current distribution. Both situations, warmer climate and increase of extreme events, will be remarkably increased by the end of the century in this hot spot of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

State Visual Evoked Potentials (SSVEPs) arise from a resonance phenomenon in the visual cortex that is produced by a repetitive visual stimulus. SSVEPs have long been considered a steady-state response resulting from purely oscillatory components phase locked with the stimulation source, matching the stimulation frequency and its harmonics. Here we explore the dynamical character of the SSVEP response by proposing a novel non-stationary methodology for SSVEP detection based on an ensemble of Echo State Networks (ESN). The performance of this dynamical approach is compared to stationary canonical correlation analysis (CCA) for the detection of 6 visual stimulation frequencies ranging from 12 to 22 Hz. ESN-based methodology outperformed CCA, achieving an average information transfer rate of 47 bits/minute when simulating a BCI system of 6 degrees of freedom. However, for some subjects and stimulation frequencies the detection accuracy of CCA exceeds that of ESN. The comparison suggests that each methodology captures different features of the SSVEP response: while CCA captures purely stationary patterns, the ESN-based approach presented here is capable of detecting the non-stationary nature of the SSVEP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: System science approaches are increasingly used to explore complex public health problems. Quantitative methods, such as participatory dynamic simulation modelling, can mobilise knowledge to inform health policy decisions. However, the analytic and practical steps required to turn collaboratively developed, qualitative system maps into rigorous and policy-relevant quantified dynamic simulation models are not well described. This paper reports on the processes, interactions and decisions that occurred at the interface between modellers and end-user participants in an applied health sector case study focusing on diabetes in pregnancy. Methods: An analysis was conducted using qualitative data from a participatory dynamic simulation modelling case study in an Australian health policy setting. Recordings of participatory model development workshops and subsequent meetings were analysed and triangulated with field notes and other written records of discussions and decisions. Case study vignettes were collated to illustrate the deliberations and decisions made throughout the model development process. Results: The key analytic objectives and decision-making processes included: defining the model scope; analysing and refining the model structure to maximise local relevance and utility; reviewing and incorporating evidence to inform model parameters and assumptions; focusing the model on priority policy questions; communicating results and applying the models to policy processes. These stages did not occur sequentially; the model development was cyclical and iterative with decisions being re-visited and refined throughout the process. Storytelling was an effective strategy to both communicate and resolve concerns about the model logic and structure, and to communicate the outputs of the model to a broader audience. Conclusion: The in-depth analysis reported here examined the application of participatory modelling methods to move beyond qualitative conceptual mapping to the development of a rigorously quantified and policy relevant, complex dynamic simulation model. The analytic objectives and decision-making themes identified provide guidance for interpreting, understanding and reporting future participatory modelling projects and methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many complex physical systems exhibit a rich variety of discrete behavioural modes. Often, the system complexity limits the applicability of standard modelling tools. Hence, understanding the underlying physics of different behaviours and distinguishing between them is challenging. Although traditional machine learning techniques could predict and classify behaviour well, typically they do not provide any meaningful insight into the underlying physics of the system. In this paper we present a novel method for extracting physically meaningful clusters of discrete behaviour from limited experimental observations. This method obtains a set of physically plausible functions that both facilitate behavioural clustering and aid in system understanding. We demonstrate the approach on the V-shaped falling paper system, a new falling paper type system that exhibits four distinct behavioural modes depending on a few morphological parameters. Using just 49 experimental observations, the method discovered a set of candidate functions that distinguish behaviours with an error of 2.04%, while also aiding insight into the physical phenomena driving each behaviour. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, a robust sliding mode control (SMC) based on backstepping technique is studied for a microgyroscope in the presence of unknown model uncertainties and external disturbances using adaptive fuzzy compensator and fractional calculus. At first, the dynamic of microgyroscope is transformed into analogically cascade system to guarantee the application of backstepping design. Then a novel fractional differential sliding surface is proposed which integrates the capacities of the fractional calculus and SMC. In order to reduce the chattering in SMC, a fuzzy logical system is utilized to approximate the external disturbances. In addition, fractional order adaptive laws are derived to estimate the damping and stiffness coefficients and angular velocity online based on Lyapunov stability theory which also guarantees the stability of the closed loop system. Finally, simulation results signify the robustness and effectiveness of the proposed control schemes and the comparison of root mean square error under different fractional orders and integer order are given to demonstrate the better performance of proposed controller. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Behavior is characterized by sequences of goal oriented conducts, such as food uptake, socializing and resting. Classically, one would define for each task a corresponding satisfaction level, with the agent engaging, at a given time, in the activity having the lowest satisfaction level. Alternatively, one may consider that the agent follows the overarching objective to generate sequences of distinct activities. To achieve a balanced distribution of activities would then be the primary goal, and not to master a specific task. In this setting the agent would show two types of behaviors, task-oriented and task-searching phases, with the latter interseeding the former. We study the emergence of autonomous task switching for the case of a simulated robot arm. Grasping one of several moving objects corresponds in this setting to a specific activity. Overall, the arm should follow a given object temporarily and then move away, in order to search for a new target and reengage. We show that this behavior can be generated robustly when modeling the arm as an adaptive dynamical system. The dissipation function is in this approach time dependent. The arm is in a dissipative state when searching for a nearby object, dissipating energy on approach. Once close, the dissipation function starts to increase, with the eventual sign change implying that the arm will take up energy and wander off. The resulting explorative state ends when the dissipation function becomes again negative and the arm selects a new target. We believe that our approach may be generalized to generate self-organized sequences of activities in general. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The blooms of Noctiluca in the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea have been intensifying in recent years, posing now a threat to regional fisheries and the long-term health of an ecosystem supporting a coastal population of nearly 120 million people. We present the results of a local-scale data analysis to investigate the onset and patterns of the Noctiluca blooms, which form annually during the winter monsoon in the Gulf of Oman and in the Arabian Sea. Our approach combines methods in physical and biological oceanography with machine learning techniques. In particular, we present a robust algorithm, the variable-length Linear Dynamic Systems (vLDS) model, that extracts the causal factors and latent dynamics at the local-scale along each individual drifter trajectory, and demonstrate its effectiveness by using it to generate predictive plots for all variables and test macroscopic scientific hypotheses. The vLDS model is a new algorithm specifically designed to analyze the irregular dataset from surface velocity drifters, in which the multivariate time series trajectories are having variable or unequal lengths. The test results provide local-scale statistical evidence to support and check the macroscopic physical and biological Oceanography hypotheses on the Noctiluca blooms; it also helps identify complementary local trajectory-scale dynamics that might not be visible or discoverable at the macroscopic scale. The vLDS model also exhibits a generalization capability (as a machine learning methodology) to investigate important causal factors and hidden dynamics associated with ocean biogeochemical processes and phenomena at the population-level and local trajectory-scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The framework of dynamical systems offers powerful tools to understand the relation between stability and variability in human cognition in general and in speech in particular. In the current paper, we propose a dynamical systems approach to the description of German nuclear pitch accents in focus marking to account for both the categorical as well as the continuous variation found in intonational data. We report on results from 27 native speakers and employ an attractor landscape to represent pitch accent types in terms of f0 measures in a continuous dimension. We demonstrate how the same system can account for both the categorical variation (relative stability of one prosodic category) as well as the continuous variation (detailed modifications within one prosodic category). The model is able to capture the qualitative aspects of focus marking such as falling vs. rising pitch accent types as well as the quantitative aspects such as less rising vs. more rising accents in one system by means of scaling a single parameter. Furthermore, speaker group specific strategies are analysed and modelled as differences in the scaling of this parameter. Thus, the model contributes to the ongoing debate about the relation between phonetics and phonology and the importance of variation in language and speech. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We theoretically study the effects of non-monotonic response curves in genetic auto-regulation by exploring the possible dynamical behaviors for such systems. Our motivation is twofold: we aim at conceiving the simplest genetic circuits for synthetic biology and at understanding the natural auto-regulation of the LrpB protein of the Sulfolobus solfataricus archaeon which exhibits non-monotonicity. We analyzed three toy models, based on mass-action kinetics, with increasing complexity and sought for oscillations and (fast) bistable switching. We performed large parameter scans and sensitivity analyses, and quantified the quality of the oscillators and switches by computing relative volumes in parameter space reproducing the sought dynamical behavior. All single gene systems need finely tuned parameters in order to oscillate, but bistable switches are more robust against parameter changes. We expected non-monotonic switches to be faster than monotonic ones, however solutions combining both auto-activation and repression in the physiological range to obtain fast switches are scarce. Our analysis shows that the Ss-LrpB system can not provide a bistable switch and that robust oscillations are unlikely. Gillespie simulations suggest that the function of the natural Ss-LrpB system is sensing via a spiking behavior, which is in line with the fact that this protein has a metabolic regulatory function and binds to a ligand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: From the perspective of dynamic systems theory, stability and variability of biological signals are both understood as a functional adaptation to variable environmental conditions. In the present study, we examined whether this theoretical perspective is applicable to the pedalling movement in cycling. Non-linear measures were applied to analyse pedalling forces with varying levels of subjective load. Materials and methods: Ten subjects completed a 13-sector virtual terrain profile of 15 km total length on a roller trainer with varying degrees of virtual terrain inclination (resistance). The test was repeated two times with different instructions on how to alter the bikes gearing. During the experiment, pedalling force and heart rate were measured. Force-time curves were sequenced into single cycles, linearly interpolated in the time domain, and z-score normalised. The established time series was transferred into a two-dimensional phase space with limit cycle properties given the applied 25% phase shift. Different representations of the phase space attractor were calculated within each sector and used as non-linear measures assessing pedalling forces. Results and discussion: A contrast analysis showed that changes in pedalling load were strongly associated to changes in non-linear phase space attractor variables. For the subjects investigated in this study, this association was stronger than that between heart rate and resistance level. The results indicate systematic changes of the pedalling movement as an adaptive response to an externally determined increase in workload. Future research may utilise the findings from this study to investigate possible relationships between subjective measures of exhaustion, comfort, and discomfort with biomechanic characteristics of the pedalling movement and to evaluate connections with dynamic stability measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a novel quasi-Bayesian method to weight multiple dynamical models by their skill at capturing both potentially non-linear trends and first-order autocorrelated variability of the underlying process, and to make weighted probabilistic projections. We validate the method using a suite of one-at-a-time cross-validation experiments involving Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), its temperature-based index, as well as Korean summer mean maximum temperature. In these experiments the method tends to exhibit superior skill over a trend-only Bayesian model averaging weighting method in terms of weight assignment and probabilistic forecasts. Specifically, mean credible interval width, and mean absolute error of the projections tend to improve. We apply the method to a problem of projecting summer mean maximum temperature change over Korea by the end of the 21st century using a multi-model ensemble. Compared to the trend-only method, the new method appreciably sharpens the probability distribution function (pdf) and increases future most likely, median, and mean warming in Korea. The method is flexible, with a potential to improve forecasts in geosciences and other fields. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recurrent neural networks are complex non-linear systems, capable of ongoing activity in the absence of driving inputs. The dynamical properties of these systems, in particular their long-time attractor states, are determined on the microscopic level by the connection strengths wij between the individual neurons. However, little is known to which extent network dynamics is tunable on a more coarse-grained level by the statistical features of the weight matrix. In this work, we investigate the dynamics of recurrent networks of Boltzmann neurons. In particular we study the impact of three statistical parameters: density (the fraction of non-zero connections), balance (the ratio of excitatory to inhibitory connections), and symmetry (the fraction of neuron pairs with wij = wji). By computing a ‘phase diagram’ of network dynamics, we find that balance is the essential control parameter: Its gradual increase from negative to positive values drives the system from oscillatory behavior into a chaotic regime, and eventually into stationary fixed points. Only directly at the border of the chaotic regime do the neural networks display rich but regular dynamics, thus enabling actual information processing. These results suggest that the brain, too, is fine-tuned to the ‘edge of chaos’ by assuring a proper balance between excitatory and inhibitory neural connections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Identifying university students’ weaknesses results in better learning and can function as an early warning system to enable students to improve. However, the satisfaction level of existing systems is not promising. New and dynamic hybrid systems are needed to imitate this mechanism. A hybrid system (a modified Recurrent Neural Network with an adapted Grey Wolf Optimizer) is used to forecast students’ outcomes. This proposed system would improve instruction by the faculty and enhance the students’ learning experiences. The results show that a modified recurrent neural network with an adapted Grey Wolf Optimizer has the best accuracy when compared with other models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The speed-curvature power law is a celebrated law of motor control expressing a relation between the kinematic property of speed and the geometric property of curvature. We aimed to assess whether speech movements obey this law just as movements from other domains do. We describe a metronome-driven speech elicitation paradigm designed to cover a wide range of speeds. We recorded via electromagnetic articulometry speech movements in sequences of the form /CV…/ from nine speakers (five German, four English) speaking at eight distinct rates. First, we demonstrate that the paradigm of metronome-driven manipulations results in speech movement data consistent with earlier reports on the kinematics of speech production. Second, analysis of our data in their full three-dimensions and using advanced numerical differentiation methods offers stronger evidence for the law than that reported in previous studies devoted to its assessment. Finally, we demonstrate the presence of a clear rate dependency of the power law’s parameters. The robustness of the speed-curvature relation in our datasets lends further support to the hypothesis that the power law is a general feature of human movement. We place our results in the context of other work in movement control and consider implications for models of speech production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The clustering of data into physically meaningful subsets often requires assumptions regarding the number, size, or shape of the subgroups. Here, we present a new method, simultaneous coherent structure coloring (sCSC), which accomplishes the task of unsupervised clustering without a priori guidance regarding the underlying structure of the data. sCSC performs a sequence of binary splittings on the dataset such that the most dissimilar data points are required to be in separate clusters. To achieve this, we obtain a set of orthogonal coordinates along which dissimilarity in the dataset is maximized from a generalized eigenvalue problem based on the pairwise dissimilarity between the data points to be clustered. This sequence of bifurcations produces a binary tree representation of the system, from which the number of clusters in the data and their interrelationships naturally emerge. To illustrate the effectiveness of the method in the absence of a priori assumptions, we apply it to three exemplary problems in fluid dynamics. Then, we illustrate its capacity for interpretability using a high-dimensional protein folding simulation dataset. While we restrict our examples to dynamical physical systems in this work, we anticipate straightforward translation to other fields where existing analysis tools require ad hoc assumptions on the data structure, lack the interpretability of the present method, or in which the underlying processes are less accessible, such as genomics and neuroscience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The clustering of data into physically meaningful subsets often requires assumptions regarding the number, size, or shape of the subgroups. Here, we present a new method, simultaneous coherent structure coloring (sCSC), which accomplishes the task of unsupervised clustering without a priori guidance regarding the underlying structure of the data. sCSC performs a sequence of binary splittings on the dataset such that the most dissimilar data points are required to be in separate clusters. To achieve this, we obtain a set of orthogonal coordinates along which dissimilarity in the dataset is maximized from a generalized eigenvalue problem based on the pairwise dissimilarity between the data points to be clustered. This sequence of bifurcations produces a binary tree representation of the system, from which the number of clusters in the data and their interrelationships naturally emerge. To illustrate the effectiveness of the method in the absence of a priori assumptions, we apply it to three exemplary problems in fluid dynamics. Then, we illustrate its capacity for interpretability using a high-dimensional protein folding simulation dataset. While we restrict our examples to dynamical physical systems in this work, we anticipate straightforward translation to other fields where existing analysis tools require ad hoc assumptions on the data structure, lack the interpretability of the present method, or in which the underlying processes are less accessible, such as genomics and neuroscience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The use of multidimensional statistical technique based on decision trees is of recent application in sports science. In the case of football, this technique has not yet been sufficiently proven. The aim of the present study was to search for different success models for the corners in the FIFA World Cup 2014 and FIFA Women's World Cup 2015. For this, the statistical analysis focused on the search for classification models for the different criteria considered (shot, shot between the three posts and goal), based on the creation of different decision trees that allow the most important variables to be identified quickly and efficiently. For this, 1117 corners were collected between the two competitions, performed in 116 international matches. It has been possible to establish multivariate models for the "shot" and "shot between the three posts" criteria, allowing, in some cases, to quadruple the potential for offensive success. On the other hand, we have been able to identify significant differences in the male and female model of execution. These findings suggest the need to continue deepening the study of tactical behavior in women's soccer from a multivariate perspective, and also propose a better optimization of the management and training of this type of actions for both male and female football. In addition, it has allowed to test the decision tree statistical technique in the analysis of high performance football, with satisfactory results and of great relevance in the applied field. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reading research uses different tasks to investigate different levels of the reading process, such as word recognition, syntactic parsing, or semantic integration. It seems to be tacitly assumed that the underlying cognitive process that constitute reading are stable across those tasks. However, nothing is known about what happens when readers switch from one reading task to another. The stability assumptions of the reading process suggest that the cognitive system resolves this switching between two tasks quickly. Here, we present an alternative language-game hypothesis (LGH) of reading that begins by treating reading as a softly-assembled process and that assumes, instead of stability, context-sensitive flexibility of the reading process. LGH predicts that switching between two reading tasks leads to longer lasting phase-transition like patterns in the reading process. Using the nonlinear-dynamical tool of recurrence quantification analysis, we test these predictions by examining series of individual word reading times in self-paced reading tasks where native (L1) and second language readers (L2) transition between random word and ordered text reading tasks. We find consistent evidence for phase-transitions in the reading times when readers switch from ordered text to random-word reading, but we find mixed evidence when readers transition from random-word to ordered-text reading. In the latter case, L2 readers show moderately stronger signs for phase-transitions compared to L1 readers, suggesting that familiarity with a language influences whether and how such transitions occur. The results provide evidence for LGH and suggest that the cognitive processes underlying reading are not fully stable across tasks but exhibit soft-assembly in the interaction between task and reader characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides a statistical methodology for quantifying causality in complex dynamical systems, based on analysis of multidimensional time series data of the state variables. The methodology integrates Granger’s causality analysis based on the log-likelihood function expansion (Partial pair-wise causality), and Akaike’s power contribution approach over the whole frequency domain (Total causality). The proposed methodology addresses a major drawback of existing methodologies namely, their inability to use time series observation of state variables to quantify causality in complex systems. We first perform a simulation study to verify the efficacy of the methodology using data generated by several multivariate autoregressive processes, and its sensitivity to data sample size. We demonstrate application of the methodology to real data by deriving inter-species relationships that define key food web drivers of the Barents Sea ecosystem. Our results show that the proposed methodology is a useful tool in early stage causality analysis of complex feedback systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The multi-group asset flow model is a nonlinear dynamical system originally developed as a tool for understanding the behavioral foundations of market phenomena such as flash crashes and price bubbles. In this paper we use a modification of this model to analyze the dynamics of a single-asset market in situations when the trading rates of investors (i.e., their desire to exchange stock for cash) are prescribed ahead of time and independent of the state of the market. Under the assumption of fast trading compared to the time-rate of change in the prescribed trading rates we decompose the dynamics of the system to fast and slow components. We use the model to derive a variety of observations regarding the dynamics of price and investors’ wealth, and the dependence of these quantities on the prescribed trading rates. In particular, we show that strategies with constant trading rates, which represent the well-known constant-rebalanced portfolio (CRP) strategies, are optimal in the sense that they minimize investment risks. In contrast, we show that investors pursuing non-CRP strategies are at risk of loss of wealth, as a result of the slow system not being integrable in the sense that cyclic trading rates do not always result in periodic price variations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ureteroscopy is an endoscopic kidney stone removal procedure which increases the internal pressure in the renal pelvis, the kidney’s urinary collecting system. Elevated renal pelvic pressure may result in systemic absorption of irrigation fluid and urine, which can increase the risk of postoperative fever and sepsis. Urologists have investigated the effects of various surgical parameters on the renal pelvic pressure. However, it still remains unknown which surgical parameter has the most dominant effect on the renal pelvic pressure over time. Here we develop a physical model that computes the renal pelvic pressure as a function of time based on parameters that can be varied during ureteroscopy. The model is developed by applying pipe network analysis to the regions of the urinary tract that are involved in a representative ureteroscopic procedure. Our model unifies the findings of the previously published studies on this topic; an ex-vivo porcine study and an in-vivo human study. Furthermore it allows simulation of surgical procedures based on various techniques. Our simulation demonstrates that the two strong regulators of renal pelvis pressure during ureteroscopy are the size of the gap between ureteroscope and ureteral access sheath and the frequency and duration of ureteroscope withdrawal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simulation-based approaches to disease progression allow us to make counterfactual predictions about the effects of an untried series of treatment choices. However, building accurate simulators of disease progression is challenging, limiting the utility of these approaches for real world treatment planning. In this work, we present a novel simulation-based reinforcement learning approach that mixes between models and kernel-based approaches to make its forward predictions. On two real world tasks, managing sepsis and treating HIV, we demonstrate that our approach both learns state-of-the-art treatment policies and can make accurate forward predictions about the effects of treatments on unseen patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Classical definitions of observability classify a system as either being observable or not. Observability has been recognized as an important feature to study complex networks, and as for dynamical systems the focus has been on determining conditions for a network to be observable. About twenty years ago continuous measures of observability for nonlinear dynamical systems started to be used. In this paper various aspects of observability that are established for dynamical systems will be investigated in the context of networks. In particular it will be discussed in which ways simple networks can be ranked in terms of observability using continuous measures of such a property. Also it is pointed out that the analysis of the network topology is typically not sufficient for observability purposes, since both the dynamics and the coupling of such nodes play a vital role. Some of the main ideas are illustrated by means of numerical simulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This is the first study to compare the effects of isometric vs. dynamic core training and characterize core-training adaptations using climbing-specific performance and core strength tests in elite climbers. The aim of the study was to compare the effects of attending a progressive core-training program on climbing performance. 19 advanced and elite climbers (7.3±5.6 years climbing experience, red point skill grade 19 IRCRA) were randomized into a dynamic (DCT) or isometric (ICT) core training group and trained twice weekly for ten weeks. The climbers were tested using two climbing-specific core tests (body lock-off and body-lift) and four non-specific core strength tests—one dynamic (superman) and three isometric (trunk flexion and trunk rotation left and right). Between group comparisons showed no differences between the groups at post-test (p = 0.328–0.824) and neither group demonstrated greater improvement compared with the other (p = 0.300–0.926). The ICT group demonstrated 10.8% and 29.6% improvement in trunk flexion and body-lift (p = 0.029–0.037 with no improvement in body lock-off and rotation (p = 0.101–0.343). The DCT group demonstrated 5.0–14.9% improvement in the core strength tests (p = 0.012–0.043), a non-significant 33.8% improvement in body-lift (p = 0.100) and no improvement in body lock-off (p = 0.943). In conclusion, none of the training groups demonstrated greater improvement than the other and both dynamic and isometric core training improved climbing-specific test performance. Dynamic training was slightly more favorable although not significantly superior to isometric core training in improving core strength. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In analysis of multi-component complex systems, such as neural systems, identifying groups of units that share similar functionality will aid understanding of the underlying structures of the system. To find such a grouping, it is useful to evaluate to what extent the units of the system are separable. Separability or inseparability can be evaluated by quantifying how much information would be lost if the system were partitioned into subsystems, and the interactions between the subsystems were hypothetically removed. A system of two independent subsystems are completely separable without any loss of information while a system of strongly interacted subsystems cannot be separated without a large loss of information. Among all the possible partitions of a system, the partition that minimizes the loss of information, called the Minimum Information Partition (MIP), can be considered as the optimal partition for characterizing the underlying structures of the system. Although the MIP would reveal novel characteristics of the neural system, an exhaustive search for the MIP is numerically intractable due to the combinatorial explosion of possible partitions. Here, we propose a computationally efficient search to precisely identify the MIP among all possible partitions by exploiting the submodularity of the measure of information loss, when the measure of information loss is submodular. Submodularity is a mathematical property of set functions which is analogous to convexity in continuous functions. Mutual information is one such submodular information loss function, and is a natural choice for measuring the degree of statistical dependence between paired sets of random variables. By using mutual information as a loss function, we show that the search for MIP can be performed in a practical order of computational time for a reasonably large system (N = 100 ∼ 1000). We also demonstrate that MIP search allows for the detection of underlying global structures in a network of nonlinear oscillators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Speech motor actions are performed quickly, while simultaneously maintaining a high degree of accuracy. Are speed and accuracy in conflict during speech production? Speed-accuracy tradeoffs have been shown in many domains of human motor action, but have not been directly examined in the domain of speech production. The present work seeks evidence for Fitts’ law, a rigorous formulation of this fundamental tradeoff, in speech articulation kinematics by analyzing USC-TIMIT, a real-time magnetic resonance imaging data set of speech production. A theoretical framework for considering Fitts’ law with respect to models of speech motor control is elucidated. Methodological challenges in seeking relationships consistent with Fitts’ law are addressed, including the operational definitions and measurement of key variables in real-time MRI data. Results suggest the presence of speed-accuracy tradeoffs for certain types of speech production actions, with wide variability across syllable position, and substantial variability also across subjects. Coda consonant targets immediately following the syllabic nucleus show the strongest evidence of this tradeoff, with correlations as high as 0.72 between speed and accuracy. A discussion is provided concerning the potentially limited applicability of Fitts’ law in the context of speech production, as well as the theoretical context for interpreting the results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Resilience is a property of major interest for the design and analysis of generic complex systems. A system is resilient if it can adjust in response to disruptive shocks, and still provide the services it was designed for, without interruptions. In this work, we adapt a formal definition of resilience for constraint-based systems to a probabilistic framework derived from hidden Markov models. This allows us to more realistically model the stochastic evolution and partial observability of many complex real-world environments. Within this framework, we propose an efficient and exact algorithm for the inference queries required to construct generic property checking. We show that the time complexity of this algorithm is on par with other state-of-the-art inference queries for similar frameworks (that is, linear with respect to the time horizon). We also provide considerations on the specific complexity of the probabilistic checking of resilience and its connected properties, with particular focus on resistance. To demonstrate the flexibility of our approach and to evaluate its performance, we examine it in four qualitative and quantitative example scenarios: (1) disaster management and damage assessment; (2) macroeconomics; (3) self-aware, reconfigurable computing for aerospace applications; and (4) connectivity maintenance in robotic swarms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Game theory has been widely applied to many research areas including economics, biology and social sciences. However, it is still challenging to quantify the global stability and global dynamics of the game theory. We developed a landscape and flux framework to quantify the global stability and global dynamics of the game theory. As an example, we investigated a model of three-strategy game: a special replicator mutator game termed as the repeated Prison Dilemma model. In this model, one stable state, two stable states and limit cycle can emerge under different parameters. The repeated Prisoner’s Dilemma system has Hopf bifurcation from one stable state to limit cycle state, and then to another one stable state or two stable states, and vice versa. We quantified the global stability of the repeated Prisoner’s Dilemma system and identified optimal kinetic paths between the basins of attractor. The optimal paths are irreversible due to the non-zero flux. We also quantified the interplay between Peace and War. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In vehicle dynamics, it is commonly understood that there is an inverse relationship between stability and maneuverability. However, animal studies have found that stability and maneuverability can coincide. In this study, we examine humans running a reactive agility obstacle and consider the relationship between observational perceived agility and balance, as well as the relationship between quantified surrogates of agility and balance. Recreational athletes (n = 18) completed the agility task while wearing inertial measurement units (IMUs) on their body. The task was also video-recorded. An observational study was completed by a separate group of adults (n = 33) that were asked to view the videos and score each athlete on a Likert scale for balance and for agility. The data from the body-worn IMUs were used to estimate quantified surrogate measures for agility and balance, and to assess if the relationship between the quantified agility and balance was in the same direction as the perceived relationship from the Likert scale responses. Results indicate that athletes that were given a higher Likert agility score were also given a higher balance score (rs = 0.75,p < 0.001). Quantitative surrogates of agility and balance also showed this same relationship. Additional insights on technique for this reactive agility task were informed by the quantitative surrogates. We observed the importance of stepping technique in achieving the faster completion times. The fast performing athletes spent a greater proportion of the task in double support and lower overall time in single support indicating increased periods of static stability. The fast performing athletes did not have a higher body speed, but performed the task with a more efficient technique, using foot placement to enable heading changes, and thus may have had a more efficient path. Similar to animal studies, people use technique to enable agile strategies while also enabling increased balance across the task. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the main technological trends in the last five years is mass data analysis. This trend is due in part to the emergence of concepts such as social networks, which generate a large volume of data that can provide added value through their analysis. This article is focused on a business and employment-oriented social network. More specifically, it focuses on the analysis of information provided by different users in image form. The images are analyzed to detect whether other existing users have posted or talked about the same image, even if the image has undergone some type of modification such as watermarks or color filters. This makes it possible to establish new connections among unknown users by detecting what they are posting or whether they are talking about the same images. The proposed solution consists of an image matching algorithm, which is based on the rapid calculation and comparison of hashes. However, there is a computationally expensive aspect in charge of revoking possible image transformations. As a result, the image matching process is supported by a distributed forecasting system that enables or disables nodes to serve all the possible requests. The proposed system has shown promising results for matching modified images, especially when compared with other existing systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Local perturbations within complex dynamical systems can trigger cascade-like events that spread across significant portions of the system. Cascades of this type have been observed across a broad range of scales in the brain. Studies of these cascades, known as neuronal avalanches, usually report the statistics of large numbers of avalanches, without probing the characteristic patterns produced by the avalanches themselves. This is partly due to limitations in the extent or spatiotemporal resolution of commonly used neuroimaging techniques. In this study, we overcome these limitations by using optical voltage (genetically encoded voltage indicators) imaging. This allows us to record cortical activity in vivo across an entire cortical hemisphere, at both high spatial (~30um) and temporal (~20ms) resolution in mice that are either in an anesthetized or awake state. We then use artificial neural networks to identify the characteristic patterns created by neuronal avalanches in our data. The avalanches in the anesthetized cortex are most accurately classified by an artificial neural network architecture that simultaneously connects spatial and temporal information. This is in contrast with the awake cortex, in which avalanches are most accurately classified by an architecture that treats spatial and temporal information separately, due to the increased levels of spatiotemporal complexity. This is in keeping with reports of higher levels of spatiotemporal complexity in the awake brain coinciding with features of a dynamical system operating close to criticality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The prediction of extreme events, from avalanches and droughts to tsunamis and epidemics, depends on the formulation and analysis of relevant, complex dynamical systems. Such dynamical systems are characterized by high intrinsic dimensionality with extreme events having the form of rare transitions that are several standard deviations away from the mean. Such systems are not amenable to classical order-reduction methods through projection of the governing equations due to the large intrinsic dimensionality of the underlying attractor as well as the complexity of the transient events. Alternatively, data-driven techniques aim to quantify the dynamics of specific, critical modes by utilizing data-streams and by expanding the dimensionality of the reduced-order model using delayed coordinates. In turn, these methods have major limitations in regions of the phase space with sparse data, which is the case for extreme events. In this work, we develop a novel hybrid framework that complements an imperfect reduced order model, with data-streams that are integrated though a recurrent neural network (RNN) architecture. The reduced order model has the form of projected equations into a low-dimensional subspace that still contains important dynamical information about the system and it is expanded by a long short-term memory (LSTM) regularization. The LSTM-RNN is trained by analyzing the mismatch between the imperfect model and the data-streams, projected to the reduced-order space. The data-driven model assists the imperfect model in regions where data is available, while for locations where data is sparse the imperfect model still provides a baseline for the prediction of the system state. We assess the developed framework on two challenging prototype systems exhibiting extreme events. We show that the blended approach has improved performance compared with methods that use either data streams or the imperfect model alone. Notably the improvement is more significant in regions associated with extreme events, where data is sparse. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is growing evidence that the intermittent nature of mind wandering episodes and mood have a pronounced influence on trial-to-trial variability in performance. Nevertheless, the temporal dynamics and significance of such lapses in attention remains inadequately understood. Here, we hypothesize that the dynamics of fluctuations in sustained attention between external and internal sources of information obey so-called critical-state dynamics, characterized by trial-to-trial dependencies with long-range temporal correlations. To test this, we performed behavioral investigations measuring reaction times in a visual sustained attention task and cued introspection in probe-caught reports of mind wandering. We show that trial-to-trial variability in reaction times exhibit long-range temporal correlations in agreement with the criticality hypothesis. Interestingly, we observed the fastest responses in subjects with the weakest long-range temporal correlations and show the vital effect of mind wandering and bad mood on this response variability. The implications of these results stress the importance of future research to increase focus on behavioral variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The primary visual cortex (V1) integrates information over scales in visual space, which have been shown to vary, in an input-dependent manner, as a function of contrast and other visual parameters. Which algorithms the brain uses to achieve this feat are largely unknown and an open problem in visual neuroscience. We demonstrate that a simple dynamical mechanism can account for this contrast-dependent scale of integration in visuotopic space as well as connect this property to two other stimulus-dependent features of V1: extents of lateral integration on the cortical surface and response latencies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In nonlinear systems long term dynamics is governed by the attractors present in phase space. The presence of a chaotic saddle gives rise to basins of attraction with fractal boundaries and sometimes even to Wada boundaries. These two phenomena involve extreme difficulties in the prediction of the future state of the system. However, we show here that it is possible to make statistical predictions even if we do not have any previous knowledge of the initial conditions or the time series of the system until it reaches its final state. In this work, we develop a general method to make statistical predictions in systems with fractal basins. In particular, we have applied this new method to the Duffing oscillator for a choice of parameters where the system possesses the Wada property. We have computed the statistical properties of the Duffing oscillator for different phase space resolutions, to obtain information about the global dynamics of the system. The key idea is that the fraction of initial conditions that evolve towards each attractor is scale free—which we illustrate numerically. We have also shown numerically how having partial information about the initial conditions of the system does not improve in general the predictions in the Wada regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Our contribution focuses on the characterization of sleep apnea from a cardiac rate point of view, using Recurrence Quantification Analysis (RQA), based on a Heart Rate Variability (HRV) feature selection process. Three parameters are crucial in RQA: those related to the embedding process (dimension and delay) and the threshold distance. There are no overall accepted parameters for the study of HRV using RQA in sleep apnea. We focus on finding an overall acceptable combination, sweeping a range of values for each of them simultaneously. Together with the commonly used RQA measures, we include features related to recurrence times, and features originating in the complex network theory. To the best of our knowledge, no author has used them all for sleep apnea previously. The best performing feature subset is entered into a Linear Discriminant classifier. The best results in the “Apnea-ECG Physionet database” and the “HuGCDN2014 database” are, according to the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.93 (Accuracy: 86.33%) and 0.86 (Accuracy: 84.18%), respectively. Our system outperforms, using a relatively small set of features, previously existing studies in the context of sleep apnea. We conclude that working with dimensions around 7–8 and delays about 4–5, and using for the threshold distance the Fixed Amount of Nearest Neighbours (FAN) method with 5% of neighbours, yield the best results. Therefore, we would recommend these reference values for future work when applying RQA to the analysis of HRV in sleep apnea. We also conclude that, together with the commonly used vertical and diagonal RQA measures, there are newly used features that contribute valuable information for apnea minutes discrimination. Therefore, they are especially interesting for characterization purposes. Using two different databases supports that the conclusions reached are potentially generalizable, and are not limited by database variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Much of our knowledge of coordination comes from studies of simple, dyadic systems or systems containing large numbers of components. The huge gap ‘in between’ is seldom addressed, empirically or theoretically. We introduce a new paradigm to study the coordination dynamics of such intermediate-sized ensembles with the goal of identifying key mechanisms of interaction. Rhythmic coordination was studied in ensembles of eight people, with differences in movement frequency (‘diversity’) manipulated within the ensemble. Quantitative change in diversity led to qualitative changes in coordination, a critical value separating régimes of integration and segregation between groups. Metastable and multifrequency coordination between participants enabled communication across segregated groups within the ensemble, without destroying overall order. These novel findings reveal key factors underlying coordination in ensemble sizes previously considered too complicated or 'messy' for systematic study and supply future theoretical/computational models with new empirical checkpoints. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyse the behaviour of a non-linear model of coupled stock and bond prices exhibiting periodically collapsing bubbles. By using the formalism of dynamical system theory, we explain what drives the bubbles and how foreshocks or aftershocks are generated. A dynamical phase space representation of that system coupled with standard multiplicative noise rationalises the log-periodic power law singularity pattern documented in many historical financial bubbles. The notion of ‘ghosts of finite-time singularities’ is introduced and used to estimate the end of an evolving bubble, using finite-time singularities of an approximate normal form near the bifurcation point. We test the forecasting skill of this method on different stochastic price realisations and compare with Monte Carlo simulations of the full system. Remarkably, the approximate normal form is significantly more precise and less biased. Moreover, the method of ghosts of singularities is less sensitive to the noise realisation, thus providing more robust forecasts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we study data from financial markets, using the normalised Mutual Information Rate. We show how to use it to infer the underlying network structure of interrelations in the foreign currency exchange rates and stock indices of 15 currency areas. We first present the mathematical method and discuss its computational aspects, and apply it to artificial data from chaotic dynamics and to correlated normal-variates data. We then apply the method to infer the structure of the financial system from the time-series of currency exchange rates and stock indices. In particular, we study and reveal the interrelations among the various foreign currency exchange rates and stock indices in two separate networks, of which we also study their structural properties. Our results show that both inferred networks are small-world networks, sharing similar properties and having differences in terms of assortativity. Importantly, our work shows that global economies tend to connect with other economies world-wide, rather than creating small groups of local economies. Finally, the consistent interrelations depicted among the 15 currency areas are further supported by a discussion from the viewpoint of economics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this study was to define a method for evaluating a player’s decisions during a game based on the success probability of his actions and for analyzing the player strategy inferred from game actions. There were developed formal definitions of i) the stochastic process of player decisions in game situations and ii) the inference process of player strategy based on his game decisions. The method was applied to the context of soccer goalkeepers. A model of goalkeeper positioning, with geometric parameters and solutions to optimize his position based on the ball position and trajectory, was developed. The model was tested with a sample of 65 professional goalkeepers (28.8 ± 4.1 years old) playing for their national teams in 2010 and 2014 World Cups. The goalkeeper’s decisions were compared to decisions from a large dataset of other goalkeepers, defining the probability of success in each game circumstance. There were assessed i) performance in a defined set of classes of game plays; ii) entropy of goalkeepers’ decisions; and iii) the effect of goalkeepers’ positioning updates on the outcome (save or goal). Goalkeepers’ decisions were similar to the ones with the lowest probability of goal on the dataset. Goalkeepers’ entropy varied between 24% and 71% of the maximum possible entropy. Positioning dynamics in the instants that preceded the shot indicated that, in goals and saves, goalkeepers optimized their position before the shot in 21.87% and 83.33% of the situations, respectively. These results validate a method to discriminate successful performance. In conclusion, this method enables a more precise assessment of a player’s decision-making ability by consulting a representative dataset of equivalent actions to define the probability of his success. Therefore, it supports the evaluation of the player’s decision separately from his technical skill execution, which overcomes the scientific challenge of discriminating the evaluation of a player’s decision performance from the action result. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we will investigate the effect of diffusion, which is ubiquitous in nature, on the immune system using a reaction-diffusion model in order to understand the dynamical behavior of complex patterns and control the dynamics of different patterns. Through control theory and linear stability analysis of local equilibrium, we obtain the optimal condition under which the system loses stability and a Turing pattern occurs. By combining mathematical analysis and numerical simulation, we show the possible patterns and how these patterns evolve. In addition, we establish a bridge between the complex patterns and the biological mechanism using the results from a previous study in Nature Cell Biology. The results in this paper can help us better understand the biological significance of the immune system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper mainly studies the globally fixed-time synchronization of a class of coupled neutral-type neural networks with mixed time-varying delays via discontinuous feedback controllers. Compared with the traditional neutral-type neural network model, the model in this paper is more general. A class of general discontinuous feedback controllers are designed. With the help of the definition of fixed-time synchronization, the upper right-hand derivative and a defined simple Lyapunov function, some easily verifiable and extensible synchronization criteria are derived to guarantee the fixed-time synchronization between the drive and response systems. Finally, two numerical simulations are given to verify the correctness of the results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, a new four-variable dynamical system is proposed to set chaotic circuit composed of memristor and Josephson junction, and the dependence of chaotic behaviors on nonlinearity is investigated. A magnetic flux-controlled memristor is used to couple with the RCL-shunted junction circuit, and the dynamical behaviors can be modulated by changing the coupling intensity between the memristor and the RCL-shunted junction. Bifurcation diagram and Lyapunov exponent are calculated to confirm the emergence of chaos in the improved dynamical system. The outputs and dynamical behaviors can be controlled by the initial setting and external stimulus as well. As a result, chaos can be suppressed and spiking occurs in the sampled outputs under negative feedback, while applying positive feedback type via memristor can be effective to trigger chaos. Furthermore, it is found that the number of multi-attractors in the Jerk circuit can be modulated when memristor coupling is applied on the circuit. These results indicate that memristor coupling can be effective to control chaotic circuits and it is also useful to reproduce dynamical behaviors for neuronal activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Critical transitions of complex systems can often be predicted by so-called early-warning signals (EWS). In some cases, however, such signals cannot be detected although a critical transition is imminent. Observing a relation of EWS-detectability and the network topology in which the system is implemented, we simulate and investigate scale-free networks and identify which networks show, and which do not show EWS in the framework of a two state system that exhibits critical transitions. Additionally, we adapt our approach by examining the effective state of the system, rather than its natural state, and conclude that this transformation can reveal hidden EWS in networks where those signals are otherwise obscured by a complex topology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Investigation of the driven mechanism of the price dynamics in complex financial systems is important and challenging. In this paper, we propose an investment strategy to study how dynamic fluctuations drive the price movements. The strategy is successfully applied to different stock markets in the world, and the result indicates that the driving effect of the dynamic fluctuations is rather robust. We investigate how the strategy performance is influenced by the market states and optimize the strategy performance by introducing two parameters. The strategy is also compared with several typical technical trading rules. Our findings not only provide an investment strategy which extends investors’ profits, but also offer a useful method to look into the dynamic properties of complex financial systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Conflicts over water resources can be highly dynamic and complex due to the various factors which can affect such systems, including economic, engineering, social, hydrologic, environmental and even political, as well as the inherent uncertainty involved in many of these factors. Furthermore, the conflicting behavior, preferences and goals of stakeholders can often make such conflicts even more challenging. While many game models, both cooperative and non-cooperative, have been suggested to deal with problems over utilizing and sharing water resources, most of these are based on a static viewpoint of demand points during optimization procedures. Moreover, such models are usually developed for a single reservoir system, and so are not really suitable for application to an integrated decision support system involving more than one reservoir. This paper outlines a coupled simulation-optimization modeling method based on a combination of system dynamics (SD) and game theory (GT). The method harnesses SD to capture the dynamic behavior of the water system, utilizing feedback loops between the system components in the course of the simulation. In addition, it uses GT concepts, including pure-strategy and mixed-strategy games as well as the Nash Bargaining Solution (NBS) method, to find the optimum allocation decisions over available water in the system. To test the capability of the proposed method to resolve multi-reservoir and multi-objective conflicts, two different deterministic simulation-optimization models with increasing levels of complexity were developed for the Langat River basin in Malaysia. The later is a strategic water catchment that has a range of different stakeholders and managerial bodies, which are however willing to cooperate in order to avoid unmet demand. In our first model, all water users play a dynamic pure-strategy game. The second model then adds in dynamic behaviors to reservoirs to factor in inflow uncertainty and adjust the strategies for the reservoirs using the mixed-strategy game and Markov chain methods. The two models were then evaluated against three performance indices: Reliability, Resilience and Vulnerability (R-R-V). The results showed that, while both models were well capable of dealing with conflict resolution over water resources in the Langat River basin, the second model achieved a substantially improved performance through its ability to deal with dynamicity, complexity and uncertainty in the river system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Quantitative relationship between the magnitude of variation in minor histocompatibility antigens (mHA) and graft versus host disease (GVHD) pathophysiology in stem cell transplant (SCT) donor-recipient pairs (DRP) is not established. In order to elucidate this relationship, whole exome sequencing (WES) was performed on 27 HLA matched related (MRD), & 50 unrelated donors (URD), to identify nonsynonymous single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). An average 2,463 SNPs were identified in MRD, and 4,287 in URD DRP (p<0.01); resulting peptide antigens that may be presented on HLA class I molecules in each DRP were derived in silico (NetMHCpan ver2.0) and the tissue expression of proteins these were derived from determined (GTex). MRD DRP had an average 3,670 HLA-binding-alloreactive peptides, putative mHA (pmHA) with an IC50 of <500 nM, and URD, had 5,386 (p<0.01). To simulate an alloreactive donor cytotoxic T cell response, the array of pmHA in each patient was considered as an operator matrix modifying a hypothetical cytotoxic T cell clonal vector matrix; each responding T cell clone’s proliferation was determined by the logistic equation of growth, accounting for HLA binding affinity and tissue expression of each alloreactive peptide. The resulting simulated organ-specific alloreactive T cell clonal growth revealed marked variability, with the T cell count differences spanning orders of magnitude between different DRP. Despite an estimated, uniform set of constants used in the model for all DRP, and a heterogeneously treated group of patients, higher total and organ-specific T cell counts were associated with cumulative incidence of moderate to severe GVHD in recipients. In conclusion, exome wide sequence differences and the variable alloreactive peptide binding to HLA in each DRP yields a large range of possible alloreactive donor T cell responses. Our findings also help understand the apparent randomness observed in the development of alloimmune responses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reductionist approaches, where individual pieces of a process are examined in isolation, have been the mainstay of biomedical research. While these methods are effective in highly compartmentalized systems, they fail to account for the inherent plasticity and non-linearity within the signaling structure. In the current manuscript, we present the computational architecture for tracking an acute perturbation in a biologic system through a multiscale model that links gene dynamics to cell kinetics, with the overall goal of predicting tissue adaptation. Given the complexity of the genome, the problem is made tractable by clustering temporal changes in gene expression into unique patterns. These cluster elements form the core of an integrated network that serves as the driving force for the response of the biologic system. This modeling approach is illustrated using the clinical scenario of vein bypass graft adaptation. Vein segments placed in the arterial circulation for treatment of advanced occlusive disease can develop an aggressive hyperplastic response that narrows the lumen, reduces blood flow, and induces in situ thrombosis. Reducing this hyperplastic response has been a long-standing but unrealized goal of biologic researchers in the field. With repeated failures of single target therapies, the redundant response pathways are thought to be a fundamental issue preventing progress towards a solution. Using the current framework, we demonstrate how theoretical genomic manipulations can be introduced into the system to shift the adaptation to a more beneficial phenotype, where the hyperplastic response is mitigated and the risk of thrombosis reduced. Utilizing our previously published rabbit vein graft genomic data, where grafts were harvested at time points ranging from 2 hours to 28 days and under differential flow conditions, and a customized clustering algorithm, five gene clusters that differentiated the low flow (i.e., pro-hyperplastic) from high flow (i.e., anti-hyperplastic) response were identified. The current analysis advances these general associations to create a model that identifies those genes sets most likely to be of therapeutic benefit. Using this approach, we examine the range of potential opportunities for intervention via gene cluster over-expression or inhibition, delivered in isolation or combination, at the time of vein graft implantation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predicting the behavior of objects in the environment is an important requirement to overcome latencies in the sensorimotor system and realize precise actions in rapid situations. Internal forward models that were acquired during motor training might not only be used for efficiently controlling fast motor behavior but also to facilitate extrapolation performance in purely perceptual tasks. In this study, we investigated whether preceding virtual cart-pole balancing training facilitates the ability to extrapolate the virtual pole motion. Specifically, subjects had to report the expected pole orientation after an occlusion of the pole of 900ms duration. We compared a group of 10 subjects, proficient in performing the virtual cart-pole balancing task, to 10 naïve subjects without motor experience in cart-pole balancing task. Our results demonstrate that preceding motor training increases the accuracy of pole movement extrapolation, although extrapolation is not trained explicitly. Additionally, we modelled subjects’ behaviors and show that the difference in extrapolation performance can be explained by individual differences in the accuracy of internal forward models. When subjects are provided with feedback about the true orientation of the pole after the occlusion in a second phase of the experiment, both groups improve rapidly. The results indicate that the perceptual capability to extrapolate the state of the cart-pole system accurately is implicitly trained during motor learning. We discuss these results in the context of shared representations and action-perception transfer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Synchronized bursts (SBs) with complex structures are common in neuronal cultures. Although the phenomenon of SBs has been discovered for a long time, its origin is still unclear. Here, we investigate the properties of these SBs in cultures grown on a multi-electrode array. We find that structures of these SBs are related to the different developmental stages of the cultures and these structures can be modified by changing the magnesium concentration in the culture medium; indicating that synaptic mechanism is involved in the generation of SBs. A model based on short term synaptic plasticity (STSP), recurrent connections and astrocytic recycling of neurotransmitters has been developed successfully to understand the observed structures of SBs in experiments. A phase diagram obtained from this model shows that networks exhibiting SBs are in a complex oscillatory state due to large enough positive feedback provided by synaptic facilitation and recurrent connections. In this model, while STSP controls the fast oscillations (∼ 100 ms) within a SB, the astrocytic recycling determines the slow time scale (∼10 s) of inter-burst intervals. Our study suggests that glia-neuron interactions can be important in the understanding of the complex dynamics of neuronal networks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]