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In this paper, we describe a population of mothers who are opioid dependent at the time of giving birth and neonates exposed to opioids in utero who experience withdrawal following birth. While there have been studies of national trends in this population, there remains a gap in studies of regional trends. Using data from the Arizona Department of Health Services Hospital Discharge Database, this study aimed to characterize the population of neonates with neonatal opioid withdrawal syndrome (NOWS) and mothers who were opioid dependent at the time of giving birth, in Arizona. We analyzed approximately 1.2 million electronic medical records from the Arizona Department of Health Services Hospital Discharge Database to identify patterns and disparities across socioeconomic, ethnic, racial, and/or geographic groupings. In addition, we identified comorbid conditions that are differentially associated with NOWS in neonates or opioid dependence in mothers. Our analysis was designed to assess whether indicators such as race/ethnicity, insurance payer, marital status, and comorbidities are related to the use of opioids while pregnant. Our findings suggest that women and neonates who are non-Hispanic White and economically disadvantaged, tend be part of our populations of interest more frequently than expected. Additionally, women who are opioid dependent at the time of giving birth are unmarried more often than expected, and we suggest that marital status could be a proxy for support. Finally, we identified comorbidities associated with neonates who have NOWS and mothers who are opioid dependent not previously reported. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Preservation of undeveloped land near urban areas is a common conservation practice. However, ecological processes may still be affected by adjacent anthropogenic activities. Ground-dwelling arthropods are a diverse group of organisms that are critical to ecological processes such as nutrient cycling, which are sensitive to anthropogenic activities. Here, we study arthropod dynamics in a preserve located in a heavily urbanized part of the Sonoran Desert, Arizona, U.S.. We compared arthropod biodiversity and community composition at ten locations, four paired sites representing the urban edge and one pair in the Preserve interior. In total, we captured and identified 25,477 arthropod individuals belonging to 287 lowest practical taxa (LPT) over eight years of sampling. This included 192 LPTs shared between interior and edge sites, with 44 LPTs occurring exclusively in interior sites and 48 LPTs occurring exclusively in edge sites. We found two site pairs had higher arthropod richness on the preserve interior, but results for evenness were mixed among site pairs. Compositionally, the interior and edge sites were more than 40% dissimilar, driven by species turnover. Importantly, we found that some differences were only apparent seasonally; for example edge sites had more fire ants than interior sites only during the summer. We also found that temperature and precipitation were strong predictors of arthropod composition. Our study highlights that climate can interact with urban edge effects on arthropod biodiversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Public funding plays a key role in reducing cost barriers to sexual and reproductive health (SRH) care in the United States. In this analysis, we examine sociodemographic and healthcare seeking profiles of individuals in three states where public funding for health services has recently changed: Arizona, Iowa, and Wisconsin. In addition, we examine associations between individuals' health insurance status and whether they experienced delays or had trouble in obtaining their preferred contraception. This descriptive study draws on data collected between 2018 to 2021 in two distinct cross-sectional surveys in each state, one among a representative sample of female residents aged 18–44 and the other among a representative sample of female patients ages eighteen and older seeking family planning services at healthcare sites that receive public funding to deliver this care. The majority of reproductive-aged women and female family planning patients across states reported having a personal healthcare provider, had received at least one SRH service in the preceding 12 months, and were using a method of birth control. Between 49–81% across groups reported receiving recent person-centered contraceptive care. At least one-fifth of each group reported wanting healthcare in the past year but not getting it, and between 10–19% reported a delay or trouble getting birth control in the past 12 months. Common reasons for these outcomes involved cost and insurance-related issues, as well as logistical ones. Among all populations except Wisconsin family planning clinic patients, those with no health insurance had greater odds of being delayed or having trouble getting desired birth control in the past 12 months than those with health insurance. These data serve as a baseline to monitor access and use of SRH services in Arizona, Wisconsin, Iowa in the wake of drastic family planning funding shifts that changed the availability and capacity of the family planning service infrastructure across the country. Continuing to monitor these SRH metrics is critical to understand the potential effect of current political shifts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To understand patient experience of federal regulatory changes governing methadone and buprenorphine (MOUD) access in Arizona during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: This community-based participatory and action research study involved one-hour, audio-recorded field interviews conducted with 131 people who used methadone and/or buprenorphine to address opioid use disorder at some point during COVID (January 1, 2020- March 31, 2021) in Arizona. Transcribed data were analyzed using a priori codes focused on federally recommended flexibilities governing MOUD access. Data were quantitated to investigate associations with COVID risk and services access. Results: Telehealth was reported by 71.0% of participants, but the majority were required to come to the clinic to attend video appointments with an offsite provider. Risk for severe COVID outcomes was reported by 40.5% of the sample. Thirty-eight percent of the sample and 39.7% of methadone patients were required to be at the clinic daily to get medication and 47.6% were at high risk for COVID severe outcomes. About half (54.2%) of methadone patients indicated that some form of multi-day take home dosing was offered at their clinic, and 45.8% were offered an extra day or two of multi-day doses; but no participants received the federally allowed 14- or 28-day methadone take-home doses for unstable and stable patients respectively. All participants expressed that daily clinic visits interrupted their work and home lives and desired more take-home dosing and home delivery options. Conclusions: MOUD patients in Arizona were not offered many of the federally allowed flexibilities for access that were designed to reduce their need to be at the clinic. To understand the impact of these recommended treatment changes in Arizona, and other states where they were not well implemented, federal and state regulators must mandate these changes and support MOUD providers to implement them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we conducted the translation and validation of the K-SF-42 in Japan (Figueredo, 2017). The K-SF-42 is a new short form of the Arizona Life History Battery. We obtained empirical evidence that the original seven-factor structure could be applied to the Japanese translated version of K-SF-42 (K-SF-42-J). We also observed good internal consistency of the seven scales of K-SF-42-J. The multi-group confirmatory factor analysis findings suggest that the K-SF-42-J can be used in both sexes and diverse age groups. The K-SF-42-J scales showed similar correlates as the English original, with higher scores of other life history strategy measurement, trait emotional intelligence, well-being, and cultural and social resources in childhood. Use of the K-SF-42-J will allow researchers with Japanese speaking samples to integrate their findings with the existing life history strategy research literature. The brevity of the K-SF-42-J will be appealing to researchers who are concerned about taxing the time and motivation of their participants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Assessing chemical loading from streams in remote, difficult-to-access watersheds is challenging. The Grand Canyon area in northern Arizona, an international tourist destination and sacred place for many Native Americans, is characterized by broad plateaus divided by canyons as much as two-thousand meters deep and hosts some of the highest-grade uranium deposits in the U.S. From 2015–2018 major surface waters in Grand Canyon were monitored for select elements associated with breccia-pipe uranium deposits in the area, including uranium, arsenic, cadmium, and lead. Dissolved constituents in the Colorado River were monitored upstream (Lees Ferry), in the middle (Phantom Ranch), and downstream (Diamond Creek) of uranium mining areas. Concentrations of uranium, arsenic, cadmium, and lead at these main-stem sites varied little during the study period and were all well below human health and aquatic life benchmark criteria (30, 10, 5, and 15 μg/L maximum contaminant levels and 15, 150, 0.8, and 3.1 μg/L aquatic life criteria, respectively). Additionally, dissolved and sediment-bound constituents were monitored during a wide range of streamflow conditions at Little Colorado River, Kanab Creek, and Havasu Creek tributaries, whose watersheds have experienced different levels of uranium mining activities over time. Samples from the tributary sites contained ≤3.8 μg/L of dissolved cadmium and lead, and ≤17 μg/L of dissolved uranium. Dissolved arsenic also was mostly below human and aquatic life criteria at Little Colorado River and Kanab Creek; however, 63% of water samples from Havasu Creek were above the maximum contaminant level for arsenic. Arsenic in suspended sediment was greater than sediment quality guidelines in 9%, 35%, and 35% of samples from Little Colorado River, Kanab Creek, and Havasu Creek, respectively. At the concentrations observed during this study, tributaries contributed on average only about 0.12 μg/L of arsenic and 0.03 μg/L of uranium to the main-stem river. This study demonstrates how chemical loading from mined watersheds may be reliably assessed across a wide range of flow conditions in challenging locations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We report the discovery of two very early, basal-amniote fossil trackways on the same bedding plane in eolian sandstone of the Pennsylvanian Manakacha Formation in Grand Canyon, Arizona. Trackway 1, which is Chelichnus-like, we interpret to be a shallow undertrackway. It displays a distinctive, sideways-drifting, footprint pattern not previously documented in a tetrapod trackway. We interpret this pattern to record the trackmaker employing a lateral-sequence gait while diagonally ascending a slope of about 20°, thereby reducing the steepness of the ascent. Trackway 2 consists only of aligned sets of claw marks. We interpret this trackway to be a deeper undertrackway, made some hours or days later, possibly by an animal that was conspecific with Trackmaker 1, while walking directly up the slope at a speed of approximately 0.1 m/sec. These trackways are the first tetrapod tracks reported from the Manakacha Formation and the oldest in the Grand Canyon region. The narrow width of both trackways indicates that both trackmakers had relatively small femoral abduction angles and correspondingly relatively erect postures. They represent the earliest known occurrence of dunefield-dwelling amniotes―either basal reptiles or basal synapsids―thereby extending the known utilization of the desert biome by amniotes, as well as the presence of the Chelichnus ichnofacies, by at least eight million years, into the Atokan/Moscovian Age of the Pennsylvanian Epoch. The depositional setting was a coastal-plain, eolian dunefield in which tidal or wadi flooding episodically interrupted eolian processes and buried the dunes in mud. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aggregations of conspecific animals are common and have been documented in most phyla. Multispecies aggregations are less common and less well studied. Eight species of Brachinus beetles —famous for their unique, highly effective, chemical defense—regularly settle together form large diurnal multispecies aggregations in dark, moist areas in riparian habitats in the Sonoran Desert Region. Here, we document these multispecies aggregations and investigate the incidence and dynamics of aggregation behavior. Analysis of species composition of 59 field-collected aggregations revealed that 71% contained more than one species, eight species regularly co-occurred in aggregations, and no two species showed a preference to aggregate with one another. We provide the first phylogenetic analyses of participants in multispecies aggregations, and find that Brachinus species found together in aggregations are not each other’s closest relatives but rather are dispersed throughout the phylogeny of the genus. Further, we find no tendency for species to aggregate with close relatives more frequently than distant relatives. Laboratory experiments on B. elongatulus showed that it chose to settle in occupied shelters over empty shelters. Experiments with B. hirsutus and B. elongatulus showed that B. hirsutus prefers to settle under shelters housing heterospecifics over conspecifics. Our findings suggest that these multispecies aggregations do not form by chance, but rather are initiated by a genus-wide aggregation cue associated with the presence of individuals already in a shelter, which is likely to be chemical and potentially tactile in nature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous research in animal shelters has determined the breeds of dogs living in shelters by their visual appearance; however the genetic breed testing of such dogs is seldom conducted, and few studies have compared the breed labels assigned by shelter staff to the results of this testing. In the largest sampling of shelter dogs’ breed identities to-date, 459 dogs at Arizona Animal Welfare League & SPCA (AAWL) in Phoenix, Arizona, and 460 dogs at San Diego Humane Society & SPCA (SDHS) in San Diego, California, were genetically tested using a commercially available product to determine their breed heritage. In our sample, genetic analyses identified 125 distinct breeds with 91 breeds present at both shelters, and 4.9% of the dogs identified as purebreds. The three most common breed signatures, in order of prevalence, American Staffordshire Terrier, Chihuahua, and Poodle, accounted for 42.5% or all breed identifications at the great grandparent level. During their stay at the shelter, dogs with pit bull-type ancestries waited longer to be adopted than other dogs. When we compared shelter breed assignment as determined by visual appearance to that of genetic testing, staff at SDHS was able to successfully match at least one breed in the genetic heritage of 67.7% of dogs tested; however their agreement fell to 10.4% when asked to identify more than one breed. Lastly, we found that as the number of pit bull-type relatives in a dog’s heritage increased, so did the shelter’s ability to match the results of DNA analysis. In total when we consider the complexity of shelter dog breed heritage and the failure to identify multiple breeds based on visual identification coupled with our inability to predict how these breeds then interact within an individual dog, we believe that focusing resources on communicating the physical and behavioral characteristics of shelter dogs would best support adoption efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Down syndrome is associated with specific cognitive deficits. Alongside this, older adults with Down syndrome are a high risk group for dementia. The Arizona Cognitive Test Battery (ACTB), a cognitive assessment battery specifically developed for use with individuals with Down syndrome, has been proposed for use as outcome measures for clinical trials in this population. It has not been validated in older adults with Down syndrome. This study aims to assess the use and validity of the ACTB in older adults with Down syndrome. Methods: Participants with Down syndrome aged 45 and over were assessed using the ACTB, standard tabletop tests and informant ratings. Results: Assessment outcomes of 49 participants were analysed. Of these, 19 (39%) had a diagnosis of dementia or possible dementia. Most participants were able to attempt most of the tasks, although some tasks had high floor effects (including CANTAB Intra-Extra Dimensional shift stages completed and Modified Dots Task). Of the ACTB tasks, statistically significant differences were observed between the dementia and no dementia groups on CANTAB Simple Reaction Time median latency, NEPSY Visuomotor Precision—Car and Motorbike and CANTAB Paired Associates Learning stages completed. No significant differences were observed for CANTAB Intra-Extra Dimensional Shift, Modified Dots Task, Finger Sequencing, NEPSY Visuomotor precision—Train and Car and CANTAB Paired Associates Learning first trial memory score. Several of the tasks in the ACTB can be used in older adults with Down syndrome and have mild to moderate concurrent validity when compared to tabletop tests and informant ratings, although this varies on a test by test basis. Conclusions: Overall, scores for a number of tests in the ACTB were similar when comparing dementia and no dementia groups of older adults with Down syndrome, suggesting that it would not be an appropriate outcome measure of cognitive function for clinical trials of dementia treatments without further modification and validation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urban bird communities have higher densities but lower diversity compared with wildlands. However, recent studies show that residential urban yards with native plantings have higher native bird diversity compared with yards with exotic vegetation. Here we tested whether landscape designs also affect bird foraging behavior. We estimated foraging decisions by measuring the giving-up densities (GUD; amount of food resources remaining when the final forager quits foraging on an artificial food patch, i.e seed trays) in residential yards in Phoenix, AZ, USA. We assessed how two yard designs (mesic: lush, exotic vegetation; xeric: drought-tolerant and native vegetation) differed in foraging costs. Further, we developed a statistical model to calculate GUDs for every species visiting the seed tray. Birds foraging in mesic yards depleted seed trays to a lower level (i.e. had lower GUDs) compared to birds foraging in xeric yards. After accounting for bird densities, the lower GUDs in mesic yards appeared largely driven by invasive and synanthropic species. Furthermore, behavioral responses of individual species were affected by yard design. Species visiting trays in both yard designs had lower GUDs in mesic yards. Differences in resource abundance (i.e., alternative resources more abundant and of higher quality in xeric yards) contributed to our results, while predation costs associated with foraging did not. By enhancing the GUD, a common method for assessing the costs associated with foraging, our statistical model provided insights into how individual species and bird densities influenced the GUD. These differences we found in foraging behavior were indicative of differences in habitat quality, and thus our study lends additional support for native landscapes to help reverse the loss of urban bird diversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Riparian areas are noted for their high biodiversity, but this has rarely been tested across a wide range of taxonomic groups. We set out to describe species richness, species abundance, and community similarity patterns for 11 taxonomic groups (forbs & grasses, shrubs, trees, solpugids, spiders, scarab beetles, butterflies, lizards, birds, rodents, and mammalian carnivores) individually and for all groups combined along a riparian-upland gradient in semiarid southeastern Arizona, USA. Additionally, we assessed whether biological characteristics could explain variation in diversity along the gradient using five traits (trophic level, body size, life span, thermoregulatory mechanism, and taxonomic affiliation). At the level of individual groups diversity patterns varied along the gradient, with some having greater richness and/or abundance in riparian zones whereas others were more diverse and/or abundant in upland zones. Across all taxa combined, riparian zones contained significantly more species than the uplands. Community similarity between riparian and upland zones was low, and beta diversity was significantly greater than expected for most taxonomic groups, though biological traits explained little variance in diversity along the gradient. These results indicate heterogeneity amongst taxa in how they respond to the factors that structure ecological communities in riparian landscapes. Nevertheless, across taxonomic groups the overall pattern is one of greater species richness and abundance in riparian zones, coupled with a distinct suite of species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The environmental mechanisms that determine the inter-annual and seasonal variability in incidence of coccidioidomycosis are unclear. In this study, we use Arizona coccidioidomycosis case data for 1995-2006 to generate a timeseries of monthly estimates of exposure rates in Maricopa County, AZ and Pima County, AZ. We reveal a seasonal autocorrelation structure for exposure rates in both Maricopa County and Pima County which indicates that exposure rates are strongly related from the fall to the spring. An abrupt end to this autocorrelation relationship occurs near the the onset of the summer precipitation season and increasing exposure rates related to the subsequent season. The identification of the autocorrelation structure enabled us to construct a "primary" exposure season that spans August-March and a "secondary" season that spans April- June which are then used in subsequent analyses. We show that October-December precipitation is positively associated with rates of exposure for the primary exposure season in both Maricopa County (R = 0.72, p = 0.012) and Pima County (R = 0.69, p = 0.019). In addition, exposure rates during the primary exposure seasons are negatively associated with concurrent precipitation in Maricopa (R =20.79, p = 0.004) and Pima (R =20.64, p = 0.019), possibly due to reduced spore dispersion. These associations enabled the generation of models to estimate exposure rates for the primary exposure season. The models explain 69% (p = 0.009) and 54% (p = 0.045) of the variance in the study period for Maricopa and Pima counties, respectively. We did not find any significant predictors for exposure rates during the secondary season. This study builds on previous studies examining the causes of temporal fluctuations in coccidioidomycosis, and corroborates the "grow and blow" hypothesis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: While freshwater sustainability is generally defined as the provisioning of water for both people and the environment, in practice it is largely focused only on supplying water to furnish human population growth. Symptomatic of this is the state of Arizona, where rapid growth outside of the metropolitan Phoenix-Tucson corridor relies on the same groundwater that supplies year-round flow in rivers. Using Arizona as a case study, we present the first study in the southwestern United States that evaluates the potential impact of future population growth and water demand on streamflow depletion across multiple watersheds. Methodology/Principal Findings: We modeled population growth and water demand through 2050 and used four scenarios to explore the potential effects of alternative growth and water management strategies on river flows. Under the base population projection, we found that rivers in seven of the 18 study watersheds could be dewatered due to municipal demand. Implementing alternative growth and water management strategies, however, could prevent four of these rivers from being dewatered. Conclusions/Significance: The window of opportunity to implement water management strategies is narrowing. Because impacts from groundwater extraction are cumulative and cannot be immediately reversed, proactive water management strategies should be implemented where groundwater will be used to support new municipal demand. Our approach provides a low-cost method to identify where alternative water and growth management strategies may have the most impact, and demonstrates that such strategies can maintain a continued water supply for both people and the environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Recent revisions to the Sonsela Member of the Chinle Formation in Petrified Forest National Park have presented a three-part lithostratigraphic model based on unconventional correlations of sandstone beds. As a vertebrate faunal transition is recorded within this stratigraphic interval, these correlations, and the purported existence of a depositional hiatus (the Tr-4 unconformity) at about the same level, must be carefully re-examined. Methodology/Principal Findings: Our investigations demonstrate the neglected necessity of walking out contacts and mapping when constructing lithostratigraphic models, and providing UTM coordinates and labeled photographs for all measured sections. We correct correlation errors within the Sonsela Member, demonstrate that there are multiple Flattops One sandstones, all of which are higher than the traditional Sonsela sandstone bed, that the Sonsela sandstone bed and Rainbow Forest Bed are equivalent, that the Rainbow Forest Bed is higher than the sandstones at the base of Blue Mesa and Agate Mesa, that strata formerly assigned to the Jim Camp Wash beds occur at two stratigraphic levels, and that there are multiple persistent silcrete horizons within the Sonsela Member. Conclusions/Significance: We present a revised five-part model for the Sonsela Member. The units from lowest to highest are: the Camp Butte beds, Lot's Wife beds, Jasper Forest bed (the Sonsela sandstone)/Rainbow Forest Bed, Jim Camp Wash beds, and Martha's Butte beds (including the Flattops One sandstones). Although there are numerous degradational/aggradational cycles within the Chinle Formation, a single unconformable horizon within or at the base of the Sonsela Member that can be traced across the entire western United States (the ''Tr-4 unconformity'') probably does not exist. The shift from relatively humid and poorly-drained to arid and well-drained climatic conditions began during deposition of the Sonsela Member (low in the Jim Camp Wash beds), well after the Carnian-Norian transition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An ongoing debate in academic and practitioner communities, centers on the measurement similarities and differences between social vulnerability and community resilience. More specifically, many see social vulnerability and community resilience measurements as conceptually and empirically the same. Only through a critical and comparative assessment can we ascertain the extent to which these measurement schemas empirically relate to one another. This paper uses two well-known indices-the social vulnerability index (SoVI) and the Baseline Resilience Indicators for Communities (BRIC) to address the topic. The paper employs spatio-temporal correlations to test for differences or divergence (negative associations) and similarities or convergence (positive associations), and the degree of overlap. These tests use continental U.S. counties, two timeframes (2010 and 2015), and two case study sub-regions (to identify changes in measurement associations going from national to regional scales given the place-based nature of each index). Geospatial analytics indicate a divergence with little overlap between SoVI and BRIC measurements, based on low negative correlation coefficients (around 30%) for both time periods. There is some spatial variability in measurement overlap, but less than 2% of counties show hot spot clustering of correlations of more than 50% in either year. The strongest overlap and divergence in both years occurs in few counties in California, Arizona, and Maine. The degree of overlap in measurements at the regional scale is greater in the Gulf Region (39%) than in the Southeast Atlantic region (21% in 2010; 28% in 2015) suggesting more homogeneity in Gulf Coast counties based on population and place characteristics. However, in both study areas SoVI and BRIC measurements are negatively associated. Given their inclusion in the National Risk Index, both social vulnerability and resilience metrics are needed to interpret the local community capacities in natural hazards risk planning, as a vulnerable community could be highly resilient or vice versa., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest. The funders had no role in the design of the study; in the collection, analyses, or interpretation of data; in the writing of the manuscript, or in the decision to publish the results.

Selecting appropriate feature subsets is a vital task in machine learning. Its main goal is to remove noisy, irrelevant, and redundant feature subsets that could negatively impact the learning model's accuracy and improve classification performance without information loss. Therefore, more advanced optimization methods have been employed to locate the optimal subset of features. This paper presents a binary version of the dwarf mongoose optimization called the BDMO algorithm to solve the high-dimensional feature selection problem. The effectiveness of this approach was validated using 18 high-dimensional datasets from the Arizona State University feature selection repository and compared the efficacy of the BDMO with other well-known feature selection techniques in the literature. The results show that the BDMO outperforms other methods producing the least average fitness value in 14 out of 18 datasets which means that it achieved 77.77% on the overall best fitness values. The result also shows BDMO demonstrating stability by returning the least standard deviation (SD) value in 13 of 18 datasets (72.22%). Furthermore, the study achieved higher validation accuracy in 15 of the 18 datasets (83.33%) over other methods. The proposed approach also yielded the highest validation accuracy attainable in the COIL20 and Leukemia datasets which vividly portray the superiority of the BDMO., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Economic growth in Central Arizona, as in other semiarid systems characterized by low and variable rainfall, has historically depended on the effectiveness of strategies to manage water supply risks. Traditionally, the management of supply risks includes three elements: hard infrastructures, landscape management within the watershed, and a supporting set of institutions of which water markets are frequently the most important. In this paper we model the interactions between these elements. A forest restoration initiative in Central Arizona (the Four Forest Restoration Initiative, or 4FRI) will result in thinning of ponderosa pine forests in the upper watershed, with potential implications for both sedimentation rates and water delivery to reservoirs. Specifically, we model the net effect of ponderosa pine forest thinning across the Salt and Verde River watersheds on the reliability and cost of water supply to the Phoenix metropolitan area. We conclude that the sediment impacts of forest thinning (up to 50% of canopy cover) are unlikely to compromise the reliability of the reservoir system while thinning has the potential to increase annual water supply by 8%. This represents an estimated net present value of surface water storage of $104 million, considering both water consumption and hydropower generation.

Methicillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is currently a major cause of skin and soft tissue infections (SSTI) in the United States. Seasonal variation of MRSA infections in hospital settings has been widely observed. However, systematic time-series analysis of incidence data is desirable to understand the seasonality of community acquired (CA)-MRSA infections at the population level. In this paper, using data on monthly SSTI incidence in children aged 0-19 years and enrolled in Medicaid in Maricopa County, Arizona, from January 2005 to December 2008, we carried out time-series and nonlinear regression analysis to determine the periodicity, trend, and peak timing in SSTI incidence in children at different age: 0-4 years, 5-9 years, 10-14 years, and 15-19 years. We also assessed the temporal correlation between SSTI incidence and meteorological variables including average temperature and humidity. Our analysis revealed a strong annual seasonal pattern of SSTI incidence with peak occurring in early September. This pattern was consistent across age groups. Moreover, SSTIs followed a significantly increasing trend over the 4-year study period with annual incidence increasing from 3.36% to 5.55% in our pediatric population of approximately 290,000. We also found a significant correlation between the temporal variation in SSTI incidence and mean temperature and specific humidity. Our findings could have potential implications on prevention and control efforts against CA-MRSA.