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Online shopping has promoted the development of logistics and express delivery businesses. Express delivery stations are closely related to residents' daily lives, and it is an important topic for the study of urban consumption space and commercial service space. This paper analyzed the factors influencing the spatial distribution of terminal logistics space (express delivery stations) in the process of online shopping. The gradient boosting decision trees (GBDT) was selected for analyzing the factors influencing the distribution of express delivery stations. The results demonstrated that express delivery stations' distribution is mainly influenced by commercial retail and residential neighborhoods, showing a clustering toward consumer spaces and residential areas. This paper studied the association between express delivery stations and other functional spaces in the city, and established an analytical framework for the factors influencing the spatial distribution of express delivery stations. The research results help to improve the rationality and effectiveness of the setting and management of the terminal logistics space in the online shopping process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) poses a substantial global health burden. Individualized treatment strategies based on early prediction of the development of BPD can mitigate preterm birth complications; however, previously suggested predictive models lack early postnatal applicability. We aimed to develop predictive models for BPD and mortality based on immediate postnatal clinical data. Methods: Clinical information on very preterm and very low birth weight infants born between 2008 and 2018 was extracted from a nationwide Japanese database. The gradient boosting decision trees (GBDT) algorithm was adopted to predict BPD and mortality, using predictors within the first 6 h postpartum. We assessed the temporal validity and evaluated model adequacy using Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) values. Results: We developed three predictive models using data from 39,488, 39,096, and 40,291 infants to predict "death or BPD," "death or severe BPD," and "death before discharge," respectively. These well-calibrated models achieved areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.828 (95% CI: 0.828–0.828), 0.873 (0.873–0.873), and 0.887 (0.887–0.888), respectively, outperforming the multivariable logistic regression models. SHAP value analysis identified predictors of BPD, including gestational age, size at birth, male sex, and persistent pulmonary hypertension. In SHAP value-based case clustering, the "death or BPD" prediction model stratified infants by gestational age and persistent pulmonary hypertension, whereas the other models for "death or severe BPD" and "death before discharge" commonly formed clusters of low mortality, extreme prematurity, low Apgar scores, and persistent pulmonary hypertension of the newborn. Conclusions: GBDT models for predicting BPD and mortality, designed for use within 6 h postpartum, demonstrated superior prognostic performance. SHAP value-based clustering, a data-driven approach, formed clusters of clinical relevance. These findings suggest the efficacy of a GBDT algorithm for the early postnatal prediction of BPD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Heart failure (HF) encompasses a diverse clinical spectrum, including instances of transient HF or HF with recovered ejection fraction, alongside persistent cases. This dynamic condition exhibits a growing prevalence and entails substantial healthcare expenditures, with anticipated escalation in the future. It is essential to classify HF patients into three groups based on their ejection fraction: reduced (HFrEF), mid-range (HFmEF), and preserved (HFpEF), such as for diagnosis, risk assessment, treatment choice, and the ongoing monitoring of heart failure. Nevertheless, obtaining a definitive prediction poses challenges, requiring the reliance on echocardiography. On the contrary, an electrocardiogram (ECG) provides a straightforward, quick, continuous assessment of the patient's cardiac rhythm, serving as a cost-effective adjunct to echocardiography. In this research, we evaluate several machine learning (ML)-based classification models, such as K-nearest neighbors (KNN), neural networks (NN), support vector machines (SVM), and decision trees (TREE), to classify left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) for three categories of HF patients at hourly intervals, using 24-hour ECG recordings. Information from heterogeneous group of 303 heart failure patients, encompassing HFpEF, HFmEF, or HFrEF classes, was acquired from a multicenter dataset involving both American and Greek populations. Features extracted from ECG data were employed to train the aforementioned ML classification models, with the training occurring in one-hour intervals. To optimize the classification of LVEF levels in coronary artery disease (CAD) patients, a nested cross-validation approach was employed for hyperparameter tuning. HF patients were best classified using TREE and KNN models, with an overall accuracy of 91.2% and 90.9%, and average area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristics (AUROC) of 0.98, and 0.99, respectively. Furthermore, according to the experimental findings, the time periods of midnight-1 am, 8–9 am, and 10–11 pm were the ones that contributed to the highest classification accuracy. The results pave the way for creating an automated screening system tailored for patients with CAD, utilizing optimal measurement timings aligned with their circadian cycles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The banking sector is increasingly recognising the need to implement robo-advisory. The introduction of this service may lead to increased efficiency of banks, improved quality of customer service, and a strengthened image of banks as innovative institutions. Robo-advisory uses data relating to customers, their behaviors and preferences obtained by banks from various communication channels. In the research carried out in the work, an attempt was made to obtain an answer to the question whether the data collected by banks can also be used to determine the degree of consumer interest in this type of service. This is important because the identification of customers interested in the service will allow banks to direct a properly prepared message to a selected group of addressees, increasing the effectiveness of their promotional activities. The aim of the article is to construct and examine the effectiveness of predictive models of consumer acceptance of robo-advisory services provided by banks. Based on the authors' survey on the use of artificial intelligence technology in the banking sector in Poland, in this article we construct tree-based models to predict customers' attitudes towards using robo-advisory in banking services using, as predictors, their socio-demographic characteristics, behaviours and attitudes towards modern digital technologies, experience in using banking services, as well as trust towards banks. In our study, we use selected machine learning algorithms, including a decision tree and several tree-based ensemble models. We showed that constructed models allow to effectively predict consumer acceptance of robo-advisory services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Current clinical strategies to assess benefits from hearing aids (HAs) are based on self-reported questionnaires and speech-in-noise (SIN) tests; which require behavioural cooperation. Instead, objective measures based on Auditory Brainstem Responses (ABRs) to speech stimuli would not require the individuals' cooperation. Here, we re-analysed an existing dataset to predict behavioural measures with speech-ABRs using regression trees. Ninety-two HA users completed a self-reported questionnaire (SSQ-Speech) and performed two aided SIN tests: sentences in noise (BKB-SIN) and vowel-consonant-vowels (VCV) in noise. Speech-ABRs were evoked by a 40 ms [da] and recorded in 2x2 conditions: aided vs. unaided and quiet vs. background noise. For each recording condition, two sets of features were extracted: 1) amplitudes and latencies of speech-ABR peaks, 2) amplitudes and latencies of speech-ABR F0 encoding. Two regression trees were fitted for each of the three behavioural measures with either feature set and age, digit-span forward and backward, and pure tone average (PTA) as possible predictors. The PTA was the only predictor in the SSQ-Speech trees. In the BKB-SIN trees, performance was predicted by the aided latency of peak F in quiet for participants with PTAs between 43 and 61 dB HL. In the VCV trees, performance was predicted by the aided F0 encoding latency and the aided amplitude of peak VA in quiet for participants with PTAs ≤ 47 dB HL. These findings indicate that PTA was more informative than any speech-ABR measure, as these were relevant only for a subset of the participants. Therefore, speech-ABRs evoked by a 40 ms [da] are not a clinical predictor of behavioural measures in HA users. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In most countries, a government agency or collaborating organization gathers information on occupational accidents. Comparisons based on a single factor such as autonomous community, activity sector or others, often leads to contradictory conclusions. The use of this information for comparison is not immediate because the different characteristics considered give place to different possible comparisons. The elaboration of a single baseline for each set of characteristics is addressed. The method proposed comes from the data available in Spain but could be applied to other cases. The method consists of: (1) selecting factors–those selected are age, sex, autonomous community and activity; (2) the generation of a synthetic population based on data from a survey and general proportions by applying the Optimal Representative Sample Weighting (rsw); and (3) the prediction of the accidents ratio for each set of characteristic by using a XGBoost decision trees ensemble. The results confirm the appropriateness of the method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Capital flows is an important aspect of the international monetary system because they provide great direct and indirect benefits, and at the same time, they carry risks of vulnerability for countries with an open economy. Numerous works have studied the behavior of these flows and have developed models to predict sudden stop events. However, the existing models have limitations and the literature demands more research on the subject given that the accuracy of the models is still poor, and they have only been developed for emerging countries. This paper presents a new prediction model of sudden stop events of capital flows for both emerging countries and developed countries with the ability to estimate accurately future sudden stop scenarios globally. A sample of 103 countries was used, including 73 emerging countries and 30 developed countries, which has allowed the use of sample combinations that consider the regional heterogeneity of the warning indicators. To the sample under study, a method of decision trees has been applied, which has provided excellent prediction results given its ability to learn characteristics and create long-term dependencies from sequential data and time series. Our model has a great potential impact on the adequacy of macroeconomic policy against the risks derived from sudden stops of capital flows, providing tools that help to achieve financial stability at the global level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arterial stiffness, measured by arterial stiffness index (ASI), could be considered a main denominator in target organ damage among hypertensive subjects. Currently, no reported ASI normal references have been reported. The index of arterial stiffness is evaluated by calculation of a stiffness index. Predicted ASI can be estimated regardless to age, sex, mean blood pressure, and heart rate, to compose an individual stiffness index [(measured ASI–predicted ASI)/predicted ASI]. A stiffness index greater than zero defines arterial stiffness. Thus, the purpose of this study was 1) to determine determinants of stiffness index 2) to perform threshold values to discriminate stiffness index and then 3) to determine hierarchical associations of the determinants by performing a decision tree model among hypertensive participants without CV diseases. A study was conducted from 53,363 healthy participants in the UK Biobank survey to determine predicted ASI. Stiffness index was applied on 49,452 hypertensives without CV diseases to discriminate determinants of positive stiffness index (N = 22,453) from negative index (N = 26,999). The input variables for the models were clinical and biological parameters. The independent classifiers were ranked from the most sensitives: HDL cholesterol≤1.425 mmol/L, smoking pack years≥9.2pack-years, Phosphate≥1.172 mmol/L, to the most specifics: Cystatin c≤0.901 mg/L, Triglycerides≥1.487 mmol/L, Urate≥291.9 μmol/L, ALT≥22.13 U/L, AST≤32.5 U/L, Albumin≤45.92 g/L, Testosterone≥5.181 nmol/L. A decision tree model was performed to determine rules to highlight the different hierarchization and interactions between these classifiers with a higher performance than multiple logistic regression (p<0.001). The stiffness index could be an integrator of CV risk factors and participate in future CV risk management evaluations for preventive strategies. Decision trees can provide accurate and useful classification for clinicians. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analyzing customers' characteristics and giving the early warning of customer churn based on machine learning algorithms, can help enterprises provide targeted marketing strategies and personalized services, and save a lot of operating costs. Data cleaning, oversampling, data standardization and other preprocessing operations are done on 900,000 telecom customer personal characteristics and historical behavior data set based on Python language. Appropriate model parameters were selected to build BPNN (Back Propagation Neural Network). Random Forest (RF) and Adaboost, the two classic ensemble learning models were introduced, and the Adaboost dual-ensemble learning model with RF as the base learner was put forward. The four models and the other four classical machine learning models-decision tree, naive Bayes, K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), Support Vector Machine (SVM) were utilized respectively to analyze the customer churn data. The results show that the four models have better performance in terms of recall rate, precision rate, F1 score and other indicators, and the RF-Adaboost dual-ensemble model has the best performance. Among them, the recall rates of BPNN, RF, Adaboost and RF-Adaboost dual-ensemble model on positive samples are respectively 79%, 90%, 89%,93%, the precision rates are 97%, 99%, 98%, 99%, and the F1 scores are 87%, 95%, 94%, 96%. The RF-Adaboost dual-ensemble model has the best performance, and the three indicators are 10%, 1%, and 6% higher than the reference. The prediction results of customer churn provide strong data support for telecom companies to adopt appropriate retention strategies for pre-churn customers and reduce customer churn. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Implant periapical lesion (IPL), as a peri-implant disease originating from implant apex, maintains coronal osseointegration in the early stage. With the understanding to IPL increasingly deepened, IPL classification based on different elements was proposed although there still lacks an overall classification system. This study, aiming to systematically integrate the available data published in the literature on IPL associated with histopathology, proposed a comprehensive classification framework and treatment decision tree for IPL. Methods and findings: English articles on the topic of "implant periapical lesion", "retrograde peri-implantitis" and "apical peri-implantitis" were searched on PubMed, Embase and Web of Science from 1992 to 2021, and citation retrieval was performed for critical articles. Definite histopathology and radiology of IPL are indispensable criteria for including the article in the literature. The protocol was registered in PROSPERO (CRD42022378001). A total of 509 papers identified, 28 studies were included in this review. In only one retrospective study, 37 of 39 IPL were reported to be at the inflammatory or abscess stage. 27 cases (37 implants) were reported, including acute non-suppurative (1/37, developed to chronic granuloma), chronic granuloma (5/37), acute suppurated (2/37), chronic suppurated-fistulized (6/37), implant periapical cyst (21/37), poor bone healing (2/37), foreign body reaction (1/37). Antibiotics alone did not appear to be effective, and the consequence of surgical debridement required cautious interpretation because of the heterogeneity of lesion course and operation. Implant apicoectomy and marsupialization were predictable approaches in some cases. Conclusions: The diversiform nature of IPL in the case reports confirms the need for such histopathological classification, which may enhance the comparison and management of different category. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Diabetes prediction is an ongoing study topic in which medical specialists are attempting to forecast the condition with greater precision. Diabetes typically stays lethargic, and on the off chance that patients are determined to have another illness, like harm to the kidney vessels, issues with the retina of the eye, or a heart issue, it can cause metabolic problems and various complexities in the body. Various worldwide learning procedures, including casting a ballot, supporting, and sacking, have been applied in this review. The Engineered Minority Oversampling Procedure (Destroyed), along with the K-overlay cross-approval approach, was utilized to achieve class evening out and approve the discoveries. Pima Indian Diabetes (PID) dataset is accumulated from the UCI Machine Learning (UCI ML) store for this review, and this dataset was picked. A highlighted engineering technique was used to calculate the influence of lifestyle factors. A two-phase classification model has been developed to predict insulin resistance using the Sequential Minimal Optimisation (SMO) and SMOTE approaches together. The SMOTE technique is used to preprocess data in the model's first phase, while SMO classes are used in the second phase. All other categorization techniques were outperformed by bagging decision trees in terms of Misclassification Error rate, Accuracy, Specificity, Precision, Recall, F1 measures, and ROC curve. The model was created using a combined SMOTE and SMO strategy, which achieved 99.07% correction with 0.1 ms of runtime. The suggested system's result is to enhance the classifier's performance in spotting illness early. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) is a serious infectious disease with a fatality of up to 30%. To identify the severity of SFTS precisely and quickly is important in clinical practice. Methods: From June to July 2020, 71 patients admitted to the Infectious Department of Joint Logistics Support Force No. 990 Hospital were enrolled in this study. The most frequently observed symptoms and laboratory parameters on admission were collected by investigating patients' electronic records. Decision trees were built to identify the severity of SFTS. Accuracy and Youden's index were calculated to evaluate the identification capacity of the models. Results: Clinical characteristics, including body temperature (p = 0.011), the size of the lymphadenectasis (p = 0.021), and cough (p = 0.017), and neurologic symptoms, including lassitude (p<0.001), limb tremor (p<0.001), hypersomnia (p = 0.009), coma (p = 0.018) and dysphoria (p = 0.008), were significantly different between the mild and severe groups. As for laboratory parameters, PLT (p = 0.006), AST (p<0.001), LDH (p<0.001), and CK (p = 0.003) were significantly different between the mild and severe groups of SFTS patients. A decision tree based on laboratory parameters and one based on demographic and clinical characteristics were built. Comparing with the decision tree based on demographic and clinical characteristics, the decision tree based on laboratory parameters had a stronger prediction capacity because of its higher accuracy and Youden's index. Conclusion: Decision trees can be applied to predict the severity of SFTS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Winter wheat is one of the most important crops in the world. It is great significance to obtain the planting area of winter wheat timely and accurately for formulating agricultural policies. Due to the limited resolution of single SAR data and the susceptibility of single optical data to weather conditions, it is difficult to accurately obtain the planting area of winter wheat using only SAR or optical data. To solve the problem of low accuracy of winter wheat extraction only using optical or SAR images, a decision tree classification method combining time series SAR backscattering feature and NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) was constructed in this paper. By synergy using of SAR and optical data can compensate for their respective shortcomings. First, winter wheat was distinguished from other vegetation by NDVI at the maturity stage, and then it was extracted by SAR backscattering feature. This approach facilitates the semi-automated extraction of winter wheat. Taking Yucheng City of Shandong Province as study area, 9 Sentinel-1 images and one Sentinel-2 image were taken as the data sources, and the spatial distribution of winter wheat in 2022 was obtained. The results indicate that the overall accuracy (OA) and kappa coefficient (Kappa) of the proposed method are 96.10% and 0.94, respectively. Compared with the supervised classification of multi-temporal composite pseudocolor image and single Sentinel-2 image using Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier, the OA are improved by 10.69% and 5.66%, respectively. Compared with using only SAR feature for decision tree classification, the producer accuracy (PA) and user accuracy (UA) for extracting the winter wheat are improved by 3.08% and 8.25%, respectively. The method proposed in this paper is rapid and accurate, and provide a new technical method for extracting winter wheat. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The tear strength of textiles is a crucial characteristic of product quality. However, during the laboratory testing of this indicator, factors such as equipment operation, human intervention, and test environment can significantly influence the results. Currently, there is a lack of traceable records for the influencing factors during the testing process, and effective classification of testing activities is not achieved. Therefore, this study proposes a state-awareness and classification approach for fabric tear performance testing based on multi-source data. A systematic design is employed for fabric tear performance testing activities, which can real-time monitor electrical parameters, operational environment, and operator behavior. The data are collected, preprocessed, and a Decision Tree Support Vector Machine (DTSVM) is utilized for classifying various working states, and introducing ten-fold cross-validation to enhance the performance of the classifier, forming a comprehensive awareness of the testing activities. Experimental results demonstrate that the system effectively perceives fabric tear performance testing processes, exhibiting high accuracy in the classification of different fabric testing states, surpassing 98.73%. The widespread application of this system contributes to continuous improvement in the workflow and traceability of fabric tear performance testing processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Massive intraoperative blood loss (IBL) negatively influence outcomes after surgery for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). However, few data or predictive models are available for the identification of patients with a high risk for massive IBL. This study aimed to build a model for massive IBL prediction using a decision tree algorithm, which is one machine learning method. One hundred and seventy-five patients undergoing curative surgery for resectable PDAC at our facility between January 2007 and October 2020 were allocated to training (n = 128) and testing (n = 47) sets. Using the preoperatively available data of the patients (34 variables), we built a decision tree classification algorithm. Of the 175 patients, massive IBL occurred in 88 patients (50.3%). Binary logistic regression analysis indicated that alanine aminotransferase and distal pancreatectomy were significant predictors of massive IBL occurrence with an overall correct prediction rate of 70.3%. Decision tree analysis automatically selected 14 predictive variables. The best predictor was the surgical procedure. Though massive IBL was not common, the outcome of patients with distal pancreatectomy was secondarily split by glutamyl transpeptidase. Among patients who underwent PD (n = 83), diabetes mellitus (DM) was selected as the variable in the second split. Of the 21 patients with DM, massive IBL occurred in 85.7%. Decision tree sensitivity was 98.5% in the training data set and 100% in the testing data set. Our findings suggested that a decision tree can provide a new potential approach to predict massive IBL in surgery for resectable PDAC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To investigate whether dental status, represented by the DMFT score, was affected by the presence of NCDs and determined the NCDs that had a greater impact on the DMFT score. This retrospective cross-sectional study included a total of 10,017 individuals. The presence of NCDs was investigated based on self-reported medical history recorded on each patient's dental hospital record. Individual DMFT score was evaluated on the basis of the dental records and panoramic radiographs. The data were further analyzed using multiple regression analysis and chi-squared automatic interaction detection (CHAID) analysis. A total of 5,388 individuals had more than one NCD among hypertension (HT), diabetes mellitus (DM), hyperlipidemia, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and osteoporosis. The average DMFT score was 8.62 ± 7.10 in the NCD group, significantly higher than that in those without NCD (5.53 ± 5.48) (P < 0.001). In the regression analysis, age, NCDs, and psychiatric problems were selected as risk factors of DMFT score. In the CHAID decision tree analysis, age was the risk factor that most influenced the DMFT score. HT was the most influential factor in a newly generated decision tree excluding age, and osteoporosis, DM, and CVD were important risk factors acting in the subgroups. Patients with NCD had worse dental conditions than those who did not, and some combinations of NCDs related highest risk for a dental caries-related index. In clinical practice, dentists should provide meticulous care for dental caries in elderly patients with NCDs, especially when certain diseases, such as HT, osteoporosis, DM, and CVD, are present together. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Knowledge of optimal technical performance is used to determine match strategy and the design of training programs. Previous studies in men's soccer have identified certain technical characteristics that are related to success. These studies however, have relative limited sample sizes or limited ranges of performance indicators, which may have limited the analytical approaches that were used. Research in women's soccer and our understanding of optimal technical performance, is even more limited (n = 3). Therefore, the aim of this study was to identify technical determinants of match outcome in the women's game and to compare analytical approaches using a large sample size (n = 1390 team performances) and range of variables (n = 450). Three different analytical approaches (i.e. combinations of technical performance variables) were used, a data-driven approach, a rational approach and an approach based on the literature in men's soccer. Match outcome was modelled using variables from each analytical approach, using generalised linear modelling and decision trees. It was found that the rational and data-driven approaches outperformed the literature-driven approach in predicting match outcome. The strongest determinants of match outcome were; scoring first, intentional assists relative to the opponent, the percentage of shots on goal saved by the goalkeeper relative to the opponent, shots on goal relative to the opponent and the percentage of duels that are successful. Moreover the rational and data-driven approach achieved higher prediction accuracies than comparable studies about men's soccer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Major depressive disorder (MDD), a prevalent mental health issue, affects more than 8% of the US population, and almost 17% in the young group of 18–25 years old. Since Covid-19, its prevalence has become even more significant. However, the remission (being free of depression) rates of first-line antidepressant treatments on MDD are only about 30%. To improve treatment outcomes, researchers have built various predictive models for treatment responses and yet none of them have been adopted in clinical use. One reason is that most predictive models are based on data from subjective questionnaires, which are less reliable. Neuroimaging data are promising objective prognostic factors, but they are expensive to obtain and hence predictive models using neuroimaging data are limited and such studies were usually in small scale (N<100). In this paper, we proposed an advanced machine learning (ML) pipeline for small training dataset with large number of features. We implemented multiple imputation for missing data and repeated K-fold cross validation (CV) to robustly estimate predictive performances. Different feature selection methods and stacking methods using 6 general ML models including random forest, gradient boosting decision tree, XGBoost, penalized logistic regression, support vector machine (SVM), and neural network were examined to evaluate the model performances. All predictive models were compared using model performance metrics such as accuracy, balanced accuracy, area under ROC curve (AUC), sensitivity and specificity. Our proposed ML pipeline was applied to a training dataset and obtained an accuracy and AUC above 0.80. But such high performance failed while applying our ML pipeline using an external validation dataset from the EMBARC study which is a multi-center study. We further examined the possible reasons especially the site heterogeneity issue. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Students' performance is an important factor for the evaluation of teaching quality in colleges. The prediction and analysis of students' performance can guide students' learning in time. Aiming at the low accuracy problem of single model in students' performance prediction, a combination prediction method is put forward based on ant colony algorithm. First, considering the characteristics of students' learning behavior and the characteristics of the models, decision tree (DT), support vector regression (SVR) and BP neural network (BP) are selected to establish three prediction models. Then, an ant colony algorithm (ACO) is proposed to calculate the weight of each model of the combination prediction model. The combination prediction method was compared with the single Machine learning (ML) models and other methods in terms of accuracy and running time. The combination prediction model with mean square error (MSE) of 0.0089 has higher performance than DT with MSE of 0.0326, SVR with MSE of 0.0229 and BP with MSE of 0.0148. To investigate the efficacy of the combination prediction model, other prediction models are used for a comparative study. The combination prediction model with MSE of 0.0089 has higher performance than GS-XGBoost with MSE of 0.0131, PSO-SVR with MSE of 0.0117 and IDA-SVR with MSE of 0.0092. Meanwhile, the running speed of the combination prediction model is also faster than the above three methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study proposes a reliable computer-aided framework to identify gait fluctuations associated with a wide range of degenerative neuromuscular disease (DNDs) and health conditions. Investigated DNDs included amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), Parkinson's disease (PD), and Huntington's disease (HD). We further performed a statistical and classification comparison elucidating the discriminative capability of different gait signals, including vertical ground reaction force (VGRF), stride duration, stance duration, and swing duration. Feature representation of these gait signals was based on statistical amplitude quantification using the root mean square (RMS), variance, kurtosis, and skewness metrics. We investigated various decision tree (DT) based ensemble methods such as bagging, adaptive boosting (AdaBoost), random under-sampling boosting (RUSBoost), and random subspace to tackle the challenge of multi-class classification. Experimental results showed that AdaBoost ensembling provided a 6.49%, 0.78%, 2.31%, and 2.72% prediction rate improvement for the VGRF, stride, stance, and swing signals, respectively. The proposed approach achieved the highest classification accuracy of 99.17%, sensitivity of 98.23%, and specificity of 99.43%, using the VGRF-based features and the adaptive boosting classification model. This work demonstrates the effective capability of using simple gait fluctuation analysis and machine learning approaches to detect DNDs. Computer-aided analysis of gait fluctuations provides a promising advent to enhance clinical diagnosis of DNDs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Text Forum Threads (TFThs) contain a large amount of Initial-Posts Replies pairs (IPR pairs) which are related to information exchange and discussion amongst the forum users with similar interests. Generally, some user replies in the discussion thread are off-topic and irrelevant. Hence, the content is of different qualities. It is important to identify the quality of the IPR pairs in a discussion thread in order to extract relevant information and helpful replies because a higher frequency of irrelevant replies in the thread could take the discussion in a different direction and the genuine users would lose interest in this discussion thread. In this study, the authors have presented an approach for identifying the high-quality user replies to the Initial-Post and use some quality dimensions features for their extraction. Moreover, crowdsourcing platforms were used for judging the quality of the replies and classified them into high-quality, low-quality or non-quality replies to the Initial-Posts. Then, the high-quality IPR pairs were extracted and identified based on their quality, and they were ranked using three classifiers i.e., Support Vector Machine, Naïve Bayes, and the Decision Trees according to their quality dimensions of relevancy, author activeness, timeliness, ease-of-understanding, politeness, and amount-of-data. In conclusion, the experimental results for the TFThs showed that the proposed approach could improve the extraction of the quality replies and identify the quality features that can be used for the Text Forum Thread Summarization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Complex decision making tasks of different natures, e.g. economics, safety engineering, ecology and biology, are based on vague, sparse, partially inconsistent and subjective knowledge. Moreover, decision making economists / engineers are usually not willing to invest too much time into study of complex formal theories. They require such decisions which can be (re)checked by human like common sense reasoning. One important problem related to realistic decision making tasks are incomplete data sets required by the chosen decision making algorithm. This paper presents a relatively simple algorithm how some missing III (input information items) can be generated using mainly decision tree topologies and integrated into incomplete data sets. The algorithm is based on an easy to understand heuristics, e.g. a longer decision tree sub-path is less probable. This heuristic can solve decision problems under total ignorance, i.e. the decision tree topology is the only information available. But in a practice, isolated information items e.g. some vaguely known probabilities (e.g. fuzzy probabilities) are usually available. It means that a realistic problem is analysed under partial ignorance. The proposed algorithm reconciles topology related heuristics and additional fuzzy sets using fuzzy linear programming. The case study, represented by a tree with six lotteries and one fuzzy probability, is presented in details. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this retrospective decisional analysis study is to develop the prediction model of suicidal ideation. We used a Decision Tree Analysis using SPSS 23.0 program to explore predictors of suicide thoughts for 12,015 Korean adults aged 19–98 years. As a result, the most powerful predictor of suicidal ideation was the level of depression. Of people who suspected depression (CESD-11>16), 32.6% experienced suicidal ideation, which is 12 times higher than that of total subjects. The group with the highest rate of suicidal ideation was people who experienced financial difficulties in depression-suspected group and the rate of suicidal thoughts in this group was 56.7%, which was the highest rate. However, in the non-depressive group, the satisfaction of family relationship was the strongest predictor of suicidal ideation. In the non-depressive group, the rate of suicidal thoughts of people with high level of family relationship satisfaction and high level of health satisfaction was 0.6%, which was the lowest rate. The contribution of this study was that it provided the combination of variables to predict the risk groups of adult suicide. This study suggests that researchers and clinicians should consider comprehensively depressive symptoms, family relationships, economic difficulties, and health status to prevent the suicide of adults. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spontaneous prediction of malignant ventricular arrhythmia (MVA) is useful to avoid delay in rescue operations. Recently, researchers have developed several algorithms to predict MVA using various features derived from electrocardiogram (ECG). However, there are several unresolved issues regarding MVA prediction such as the effect of number of ECG features on a prediction remaining unclear, possibility that an alert for occurring MVA may arrive very late and uncertainty in the performance of the algorithm predicting MVA minutes before onset. To overcome the aforementioned problems, this research conducts an in-depth study on the number and types of ECG features that are implemented in a decision tree classifier. In addition, this research also investigates an algorithm's execution time before the occurrence of MVA to minimize delays in warnings for MVA. Lastly, this research aims to study both the sensitivity and specificity of an algorithm to reveal the performance of MVA prediction algorithms from time to time. To strengthen the results of analysis, several classifiers such as support vector machine and naive Bayes are also examined for the purpose of comparison study. There are three phases required to achieve the objectives. The first phase is literature review on existing relevant studies. The second phase deals with design and development of four modules for predicting MVA. Rigorous experiments are performed in the feature selection and classification modules. The results show that eight ECG features with decision tree classifier achieved good prediction performance in terms of execution time and sensitivity. In addition, the results show that the highest percentage for sensitivity and specificity is 95% and 90% respectively, in the fourth 5-minute interval (15.1 minutes–20 minutes) that preceded the onset of an arrhythmia event. Such results imply that the fourth 5-minute interval would be the best time to perform prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent studies aiming to facilitate mathematical skill development in primary school children have explored the electrophysiological characteristics associated with different levels of arithmetic achievement. The present work introduces an alternative EEG signal characterization using graph metrics and, based on such features, a classification analysis using a decision tree model. This proposal aims to identify group differences in brain connectivity networks with respect to mathematical skills in elementary school children. The methods of analysis utilized were signal-processing (EEG artifact removal, Laplacian filtering, and magnitude square coherence measurement) and the characterization (Graph metrics) and classification (Decision Tree) of EEG signals recorded during performance of a numerical comparison task. Our results suggest that the analysis of quantitative EEG frequency-band parameters can be used successfully to discriminate several levels of arithmetic achievement. Specifically, the most significant results showed an accuracy of 80.00% (α band), 78.33% (δ band), and 76.67% (θ band) in differentiating high-skilled participants from low-skilled ones, averaged-skilled subjects from all others, and averaged-skilled participants from low-skilled ones, respectively. The use of a decision tree tool during the classification stage allows the identification of several brain areas that seem to be more specialized in numerical processing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study recorded indigenous knowledge of medicinal plants in Shahrbabak, Iran. We described a method using data mining algorithms to predict medicinal plants' mode of application. Twenty-oneindividuals aged 28 to 81 were interviewed. Firstly, data were collected and analyzed based on quantitative indices such as the informant consensus factor (ICF), the cultural importance index (CI), and the relative frequency of citation (RFC). Secondly, the data was classified by support vector machines, J48 decision trees, neural networks, and logistic regression. So, 141 medicinal plants from 43 botanical families were documented. Lamiaceae, with 18 species, was the dominant family among plants, and plant leaves were most frequently used for medicinal purposes. The decoction was the most commonly used preparation method (56%), and therophytes were the most dominant (48.93%) among plants. Regarding the RFC index, the most important species are Adiantum capillus-veneris L. and Plantago ovata Forssk., while Artemisia auseri Boiss. ranked first based on the CI index. The ICF index demonstrated that metabolic disorders are the most common problems among plants in the Shahrbabak region. Finally, the J48 decision tree algorithm consistently outperforms other methods, achieving 95% accuracy in 10-fold cross-validation and 70–30 data split scenarios. The developed model detects with maximum accuracy how to consume medicinal plants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Genotype-to-phenotype prediction is a central problem of human genetics. In recent years, it has become possible to construct complex predictive models for phenotypes, thanks to the availability of large genome data sets as well as efficient and scalable machine learning tools. In this paper, we make a threefold contribution to this problem. First, we ask if state-of-the-art nonlinear predictive models, such as boosted decision trees, can be more efficient for phenotype prediction than conventional linear models. We find that this is indeed the case if model features include a sufficiently rich set of covariates, but probably not otherwise. Second, we ask if the conventional selection of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) by genome wide association studies (GWAS) can be replaced by a more efficient procedure, taking into account information in previously selected SNPs. We propose such a procedure, based on a sequential feature importance estimation with decision trees, and show that this approach indeed produced informative SNP sets that are much more compact than when selected with GWAS. Finally, we show that the highest prediction accuracy can ultimately be achieved by ensembling individual linear and nonlinear models. To the best of our knowledge, for some of the phenotypes that we consider (asthma, hypothyroidism), our results are a new state-of-the-art. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pruning is applied in order to combat over-fitting problem where the tree is pruned back with the goal of identifying decision tree with the lowest error rate on previously unobserved instances, breaking ties in favour of smaller trees with high accuracy. In this paper, pruning with Bayes minimum risk is introduced for estimating the risk-rate. This method proceeds in a bottom-up fashion converting a parent node of a subtree to a leaf node if the estimated risk-rate of the parent node for that subtree is less than the risk-rates of its leaf. This paper proposes a post-pruning method that considers various evaluation standards such as attribute selection, accuracy, tree complexity, and time taken to prune the tree, precision/recall scores, TP/FN rates and area under ROC. The experimental results show that the proposed method produces better classification accuracy and its complexity is not much different than the complexities of reduced-error pruning and minimum-error pruning approaches. The experiments also demonstrate that the proposed method shows satisfactory performance in terms of precision score, recall score, TP rate, FP rate and area under ROC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Collaborative modelling of the Internet of Things (IoT) with Artificial Intelligence (AI) has merged into the Intelligence of Things concept. This recent trend enables sensors to track required parameters and store accumulated data in cloud storage, which can be further utilized by AI based predictive models for automatic decision making. In a smart and sustainable environment, effective waste management is a concern. Poor regulation of waste in surrounding areas leads to rapid spread of contagious disease risks. Traditional waste object management requires more working staff, increases effort, consumes time and is relatively ineffective. In this research, an Intelligence of Things Enabled Smart Waste Management (IoT-SWM) model with predictive capabilities is developed. Here, local sinks (LS) are deployed in specified locations. At every instant, the current status of smart bins in each LS is notified to users to determine the priority level of LS to be emptied. Based on aggregated sensor values for the three smart bins, LS weight and poison gas value, the priority order of emptying LS is computed, and decision is made whether to notify the users with an alert message or not. It also helps in predicting the LS, which is likely to be filled up at a faster rate based on assigned timestamp. This model is implemented in real time with many LS and it was observed that bins, which were close to more crowded sites filled up faster compared to sparse populated areas. Random forest algorithm was used to predict whether an alert notification is to be sent or not. An average mean of 95.8% accuracy was noted while using 60 decision trees in random forest algorithm. The average mean execution latency recorded for training and testing sets is 13.06 sec and 14.39 sec respectively. Observed accuracy rate, precision, recall and f1-score parameters were 95.8%, 96.5%, 98.5% and 97.2% respectively. Model buildup and the validation time computed were 3.26 sec and 4.25 sec respectively. It is also noted that at a threshold value of 0.93 in LS level, the maximum accuracy rate reached was 95.8%. Thus, based on the prediction of random forest approach, a decision to notify the users is taken. Obtained outcome indicates that the waste level can be efficiently determined, and the overflow of dustbins can be easily checked in time [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To overcome the false alarm problem that arises for mine wind-velocity sensors due to air-door and mine-car operation, a wind-velocity disturbance identification method based on the wavelet packet transform and gradient lifting decision tree is proposed. In this method, a multi-scale sliding window discretizes continuous wind-velocity monitoring data, the wavelet packet transform extracts the hidden features of discrete data, and a gradient lifting decision tree multi-disturbance classification model is established. Based on the overlap degree rule, the disturbance identification results are merged, modified, combined, and optimized. In accordance with a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression, the air-door operation information is further extracted. A similarity experiment is performed to verify the method performance. For the disturbance identification task, the recognition accuracy, accuracy, and recall of the proposed method are 94.58%, 95.70% and 92.99%, respectively, and for the task involving further extraction of disturbance information related to air-door operation, those values are 72.36%, 73.08%, and 71.02%, respectively. This algorithm gives a new recognition method for abnormal time series data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In spacecraft electrical signal characteristic data, there exists a large amount of data with high-dimensional features, a high computational complexity degree, and a low rate of identification problems, which causes great difficulty in fault diagnosis of spacecraft electronic load systems. This paper proposes a feature extraction method that is based on deep belief networks (DBN) and a classification method that is based on the random forest (RF) algorithm; The proposed algorithm mainly employs a multi-layer neural network to reduce the dimension of the original data, and then, classification is applied. Firstly, we use the method of wavelet denoising, which was used to pre-process the data. Secondly, the deep belief network is used to reduce the feature dimension and improve the rate of classification for the electrical characteristics data. Finally, we used the random forest algorithm to classify the data and comparing it with other algorithms. The experimental results show that compared with other algorithms, the proposed method shows excellent performance in terms of accuracy, computational efficiency, and stability in addressing spacecraft electrical signal data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Classification is an important and widely used machine learning technique in bioinformatics. Researchers and other end-users of machine learning software often prefer to work with comprehensible models where knowledge extraction and explanation of reasoning behind the classification model are possible. Methods: This paper presents an extension to an existing machine learning environment and a study on visual tuning of decision tree classifiers. The motivation for this research comes from the need to build effective and easily interpretable decision tree models by so called one-button data mining approach where no parameter tuning is needed. To avoid bias in classification, no classification performance measure is used during the tuning of the model that is constrained exclusively by the dimensions of the produced decision tree. Results: The proposed visual tuning of decision trees was evaluated on 40 datasets containing classical machine learning problems and 31 datasets from the field of bioinformatics. Although we did not expected significant differences in classification performance, the results demonstrate a significant increase of accuracy in less complex visually tuned decision trees. In contrast to classical machine learning benchmarking datasets, we observe higher accuracy gains in bioinformatics datasets. Additionally, a user study was carried out to confirm the assumption that the tree tuning times are significantly lower for the proposed method in comparison to manual tuning of the decision tree. Conclusions: The empirical results demonstrate that by building simple models constrained by predefined visual boundaries, one not only achieves good comprehensibility, but also very good classification performance that does not differ from usually more complex models built using default settings of the classical decision tree algorithm. In addition, our study demonstrates the suitability of visually tuned decision trees for datasets with binary class attributes and a high number of possibly redundant attributes that are very common in bioinformatics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To develop a model for the early prediction of severe acute pancreatitis based on the revised Atlanta classification of acute pancreatitis. Methods: Clinical data of 1308 patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) were included in the retrospective study. A total of 603 patients who were admitted to the hospital within 36 hours of the onset of the disease were included at last according to the inclusion criteria. The clinical data were collected within 12 hours after admission. All the patients were classified as having mild acute pancreatitis (MAP), moderately severe acute pancreatitis (MSAP) and severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) based on the revised Atlanta classification of acute pancreatitis. All the 603 patients were randomly divided into training group (402 cases) and test group (201 cases). Univariate and multiple regression analyses were used to identify the independent risk factors for the development of SAP in the training group. Then the prediction model was constructed using the decision tree method, and this model was applied to the test group to evaluate its validity. Results: The decision tree model was developed using creatinine, lactate dehydrogenase, and oxygenation index to predict SAP. The diagnostic sensitivity and specificity of SAP in the training group were 80.9% and 90.0%, respectively, and the sensitivity and specificity in the test group were 88.6% and 90.4%, respectively. Conclusions: The decision tree model based on creatinine, lactate dehydrogenase, and oxygenation index is more likely to predict the occurrence of SAP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Identification keys are decision trees which require the observation of one or more morphological characters of an organism at each step of the process. While modern digital keys can overcome several constraints of classical paperprinted keys, their performance is not error-free. Moreover, identification cannot be always achieved when a specimen lacks some morphological features (i.e. because of season, incomplete development or miss-collecting). DNA barcoding was proven to have great potential in plant identification, while it can be ineffective with some closely related taxa, in which the relatively brief evolutionary distance did not produce differences in the core-barcode sequences. Methodology/Principal Findings: In this paper, we investigated how the DNA barcoding can support the modern digital approaches to the identification of organisms, using as a case study a local flora, that of Mt. Valerio, a small hill near the centre of Trieste (NE Italy). The core barcode markers (plastidial rbcL and matK), plus the additional trnH-psbA region, were used to identify vascular plants specimens. The usefulness of DNA barcoding data in enhancing the performance of a digital identification key was tested on three independent simulated scenarios. Conclusions/Significance: Our results show that the core barcode markers univocally identify most species of our local flora (96%). The trnH-psbA data improve the discriminating power of DNA barcoding among closely related plant taxa. In the multiparametric digital key, DNA barcoding data improves the identification success rate; in our simulation, DNA data overcame the absence of some morphological features, reaching a correct identification for 100% of the species. FRIDA, the software used to generate the digital key, has the potential to combine different data sources: we propose to use this feature to include molecular data as well, creating an integrated identification system for plant biodiversity surveys. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate prediction of wave overtopping at sea defences remains central to the protection of lives, livelihoods, and infrastructural assets in coastal zones. In addressing the increased risks of rising sea levels and more frequent storm surges, robust assessment and prediction methods for overtopping prediction are increasingly important. Methods for predicting overtopping have typically relied on empirical relations based on physical modelling and numerical simulation data. In recent years, with advances in computational efficiency, data-driven techniques including advanced Machine Learning (ML) methods have become more readily applicable. However, the methodological appropriateness and performance evaluation of ML techniques for predicting wave overtopping at vertical seawalls has not been extensively studied. This study examines the predictive performance of four ML techniques, namely Random Forest (RF), Gradient Boosted Decision Trees (GBDT), Support Vector Machines—Regression (SVR), and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) for overtopping discharge at vertical seawalls. The ML models are developed using data from the EurOtop (2018) database. Hyperparameter tuning is performed to curtail algorithms to the intrinsic features of the dataset. Feature Transformation and advanced Feature Selection methods are adopted to reduce data redundancy and overfitting. Comprehensive statistical analysis shows superior performance of the RF method, followed in turn by the GBDT, SVR, and ANN models, respectively. In addition to this, Decision Tree (DT) based methods such as GBDT and RF are shown to be more computationally efficient than SVR and ANN, with GBDT performing simulations more rapidly that other methods. This study shows that ML approaches can be adopted as a reliable and computationally effective method for evaluating wave overtopping at vertical seawalls across a wide range of hydrodynamic and structural conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: To provide empirically-supported thresholds for step-based intensity (i.e., peak 30-min cadence; average of the top 30 steps/min in a day) and steps/day in relation to cardiometabolic health outcomes. Methods: Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was applied to the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2005–2006 accelerometer-derived step data to determine steps/day and peak 30-min cadence as risk screening values (i.e., thresholds) for fasting glucose, body mass index, waist circumference, high blood pressure, triglycerides, and HDL cholesterol. Thresholds for peak 30-min cadence and steps/day were derived that, when exceeded, classify the absence of each cardiometabolic risk factor. Additionally, logistic regression models that included the influence of age and smoking were developed using the sample weights, primary sampling units (PSUs), and stratification variables provided by the NHANES survey. Finally, a decision tree analysis was performed to delineate criteria for at-risk versus healthy populations using cadence bands. Results: Peak 30-min cadence thresholds across cardiometabolic outcomes ranged from 66–72 steps/min. Steps/day thresholds ranged from 4325–6192 steps/day. Higher thresholds were observed in men compared to women. In men, higher steps/day thresholds were observed in age ranges of 30–39, while in women, higher thresholds were observed in the age-range 50–59 years. Decision trees for classifying being at low risk for metabolic syndrome contained one risk-free leaf at higher cadence bands, specifically for any time accumulated at ≥120 steps/min. Conclusions: Minimum thresholds representing absence of cardiometabolic risk range from 4325–6192 steps/day and 66–72 steps/min for peak 30-min cadence. Any time accumulated at ≥120 steps/min was associated with an absence of cardiometabolic risk. Although based on cross-sectional data, these thresholds represent potentially important and clinically interpretable daily physical activity goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The use of multidimensional statistical technique based on decision trees is of recent application in sports science. In the case of football, this technique has not yet been sufficiently proven. The aim of the present study was to search for different success models for the corners in the FIFA World Cup 2014 and FIFA Women's World Cup 2015. For this, the statistical analysis focused on the search for classification models for the different criteria considered (shot, shot between the three posts and goal), based on the creation of different decision trees that allow the most important variables to be identified quickly and efficiently. For this, 1117 corners were collected between the two competitions, performed in 116 international matches. It has been possible to establish multivariate models for the "shot" and "shot between the three posts" criteria, allowing, in some cases, to quadruple the potential for offensive success. On the other hand, we have been able to identify significant differences in the male and female model of execution. These findings suggest the need to continue deepening the study of tactical behavior in women's soccer from a multivariate perspective, and also propose a better optimization of the management and training of this type of actions for both male and female football. In addition, it has allowed to test the decision tree statistical technique in the analysis of high performance football, with satisfactory results and of great relevance in the applied field. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Membrane proteins move in heterogeneous environments with spatially (sometimes temporally) varying friction and with biochemical interactions with various partners. It is important to reliably distinguish different modes of motion to improve our knowledge of the membrane architecture and to understand the nature of interactions between membrane proteins and their environments. Here, we present an analysis technique for single molecule tracking (SMT) trajectories that can determine the preferred model of motion that best matches observed trajectories. The method is based on Bayesian inference to calculate the posteriori probability of an observed trajectory according to a certain model. Information theory criteria, such as the Bayesian information criterion (BIC), the Akaike information criterion (AIC), and modified AIC (AICc), are used to select the preferred model. The considered group of models includes free Brownian motion, and confined motion in 2nd or 4th order potentials. We determine the best information criteria for classifying trajectories. We tested its limits through simulations matching large sets of experimental conditions and we built a decision tree. This decision tree first uses the BIC to distinguish between free Brownian motion and confined motion. In a second step, it classifies the confining potential further using the AIC. We apply the method to experimental Clostridium Perfingens -toxin (CPT) receptor trajectories to show that these receptors are confined by a spring-like potential. An adaptation of this technique was applied on a sliding window in the temporal dimension along the trajectory. We applied this adaptation to experimental CPT trajectories that lose confinement due to disaggregation of confining domains. This new technique adds another dimension to the discussion of SMT data. The mode of motion of a receptor might hold more biologically relevant information than the diffusion coefficient or domain size and may be a better tool to classify and compare different SMT experiments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Predict long-term disease worsening and the removal of biosimilar medication in patients with rheumatic diseases. Methodology: Observational, retrospective descriptive study. Review of a database of patients with immune-mediated inflammatory rheumatic diseases who switched from a biological drug (biosimilar or non-biosimilar) to a biosimilar drug for at least 6 months. We selected the most important variables, from 18 variables, using mutual information tests. As patients with disease worsening are a minority, it is very difficult to make models with conventional machine learning techniques, where the best models would always be trivial. For this reason, we computed different types of imbalanced machine learning models, choosing those with better f1-score and mean ROC AUC. Results: We computed the best-imbalanced machine learning models to predict disease worsening and the removal of the biosimilar, with f1-scores of 0.52 and 0.63, respectively. Both models are decision trees. In the first one, two important factors are switching of biosimilar and age, and in the second, the relevant variables are optimization and the value of the initial PCR. Conclusions: Biosimilar drugs do not always work well for rheumatic diseases. We obtain two imbalanced machine learning models to detect those cases, where the drug should be removed or where the activity of the disease increases from low to high. In our decision trees appear not previously studied variables, such as age, switching, or optimization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the 2008 financial crisis, agent-based models (ABMs), which account for out-of-equilibrium dynamics, heterogeneous preferences, time horizons and strategies, have often been envisioned as the new frontier that could revolutionise and displace the more standard models and tools in economics. However, their adoption and generalisation is drastically hindered by the absence of general reliable operational calibration methods. Here, we start with a different calibration angle that qualifies an ABM for its ability to achieve abnormal trading performance with respect to the buy-and-hold strategy when fed with real financial data. Starting from the common definition of standard minority and majority agents with binary strategies, we prove their equivalence to optimal decision trees. This efficient representation allows us to exhaustively test all meaningful single agent models for their potential anomalous investment performance, which we apply to the NASDAQ Composite index over the last 20 years. We uncover large significant predictive power, with anomalous Sharpe ratio and directional accuracy, in particular during the dotcom bubble and crash and the 2008 financial crisis. A principal component analysis reveals transient convergence between the anomalous minority and majority models. A novel combination of the optimal single-agent models of both classes into a two-agents model leads to remarkable superior investment performance, especially during the periods of bubbles and crashes. Our design opens the field of ABMs to construct novel types of advanced warning systems of market crises, based on the emergent collective intelligence of ABMs built on carefully designed optimal decision trees that can be reversed engineered from real financial data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The electrocardiogram (ECG) is the most common tool used to predict left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH). However, it is limited by its low accuracy (<60%) and sensitivity (30%). We set forth the hypothesis that the Machine Learning (ML) C5.0 algorithm could optimize the ECG in the prediction of LVH by echocardiography (Echo) while also establishing ECG-LVH phenotypes. We used Echo as the standard diagnostic tool to detect LVH and measured the ECG abnormalities found in Echo-LVH. We included 432 patients (power = 99%). Of these, 202 patients (46.7%) had Echo-LVH and 240 (55.6%) were males. We included a wide range of ventricular masses and Echo-LVH severities which were classified as mild (n = 77, 38.1%), moderate (n = 50, 24.7%) and severe (n = 75, 37.1%). Data was divided into a training/testing set (80%/20%) and we applied logistic regression analysis on the ECG measurements. The logistic regression model with the best ability to identify Echo-LVH was introduced into the C5.0 ML algorithm. We created multiple decision trees and selected the tree with the highest performance. The resultant five-level binary decision tree used only six predictive variables and had an accuracy of 71.4% (95%CI, 65.5–80.2), a sensitivity of 79.6%, specificity of 53%, positive predictive value of 66.6% and a negative predictive value of 69.3%. Internal validation reached a mean accuracy of 71.4% (64.4–78.5). Our results were reproduced in a second validation group and a similar diagnostic accuracy was obtained, 73.3% (95%CI, 65.5–80.2), sensitivity (81.6%), specificity (69.3%), positive predictive value (56.3%) and negative predictive value (88.6%). We calculated the Romhilt-Estes multilevel score and compared it to our model. The accuracy of the Romhilt-Estes system had an accuracy of 61.3% (CI95%, 56.5–65.9), a sensitivity of 23.2% and a specificity of 94.8% with similar results in the external validation group. In conclusion, the C5.0 ML algorithm surpassed the accuracy of current ECG criteria in the detection of Echo-LVH. Our new criteria hinge on ECG abnormalities that identify high-risk patients and provide some insight on electrogenesis in Echo-LVH. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Diabetes (DM) and impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) detection are conventionally based on glycemic criteria. Skin autofluorescence (SAF) is a noninvasive proxy of tissue accumulation of advanced glycation endproducts (AGE) which are considered to be a carrier of glycometabolic memory. We compared SAF and a SAF-based decision tree (SAF-DM) with fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and HbA1c, and additionally with the Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC) questionnaire±FPG for detection of oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT)- or HbA1c-defined IGT and diabetes in intermediate risk persons. Methods: Participants had ≥1 metabolic syndrome criteria. They underwent an OGTT, HbA1c, SAF and FINDRISC, in adition to SAF-DM which includes SAF, age, BMI, and conditional questions on DM family history, antihypertensives, renal or cardiovascular disease events (CVE). Results: 218 persons, age 56 yr, 128M/90F, 97 with previous CVE, participated. With OGTT 28 had DM, 46 IGT, 41 impaired fasting glucose, 103 normal glucose tolerance. SAF alone revealed 23 false positives (FP), 34 false negatives (FN) (sensitivity (S) 68%; specificity (SP) 86%). With SAF-DM, FP were reduced to 18, FN to 16 (5 with DM) (S 82%; SP 89%). HbA1c scored 48 FP, 18 FN (S 80%; SP 75%). Using HbA1c-defined DM-IGT/suspicion ≥6%/42 mmol/mol, SAF-DM scored 33 FP, 24 FN (4 DM) (S76%; SP72%), FPG 29 FP, 41 FN (S71%; SP80%). FINDRISC≥10 points as detection of HbA1c-based diabetes/suspicion scored 79 FP, 23 FN (S 69%; SP 45%). Conclusion: SAF-DM is superior to FPG and non-inferior to HbA1c to detect diabetes/IGT in intermediate-risk persons. SAF-DM’s value for diabetes/IGT screening is further supported by its established performance in predicting diabetic complications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, researchers have proven the effectiveness and speediness of machine learning-based cancer diagnosis models. However, it is difficult to explain the results generated by machine learning models, especially ones that utilized complex high-dimensional data like RNA sequencing data. In this study, we propose the binarilization technique as a novel way to treat RNA sequencing data and used it to construct explainable cancer prediction models. We tested our proposed data processing technique on five different models, namely neural network, random forest, xgboost, support vector machine, and decision tree, using four cancer datasets collected from the National Cancer Institute Genomic Data Commons. Since our datasets are imbalanced, we evaluated the performance of all models using metrics designed for imbalance performance like geometric mean, Matthews correlation coefficient, F-Measure, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Our approach showed comparative performance while relying on less features. Additionally, we demonstrated that data binarilization offers higher explainability by revealing how each feature affects the prediction. These results demonstrate the potential of data binarilization technique in improving the performance and explainability of RNA sequencing based cancer prediction models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Monitoring and Analysis Centre for the fight against money laundering is a valid financial information body which is responsible for collecting, analysing and providing financial information and conducting international exchanges of financial information for relevant undertakings. By constructing the analysis of the monitoring of the local and foreign currency and of the data transmission subsystem in the plan for the transitional period against In the light of the above, the Commission will continue to monitor the implementation of the acquis in the light of the progress made in implementing the acquis future new systems. The purpose of this paper is to study the research and implementation of the security control of the anti-money laundering monitoring and analysis system. This article studies the application of decision tree analysis technology in the anti-money laundering monitoring system of insurance companies to achieve the purpose of improving the anti-money laundering monitoring technology and capabilities of insurance companies. The emergence of data mining technology provides a new system solution for anti-money laundering monitoring. For insurance anti-money laundering, how to find potential money laundering cases in suspicious and large surrender transactions is key. The experimental data show that the decision tree method is the best predictor of the customer category between the insurance application and the surrender days. The decision tree analysis technology has greatly improved the security monitoring capabilities of the insurance in the anti-money laundering monitoring system. Experimental data shows that the security control capabilities of the anti-money laundering monitoring and analysis system make the accuracy of the entire model reach 95%, the accuracy of large and suspicious transactions reaches 88.6%, and the correct classification of customers is about 99.6%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Attention Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) is a neurodevelopmental disorder that has heavy consequences on a child’s wellbeing, especially in the academic, psychological and relational planes. The current evaluation of the disorder is supported by clinical assessment and written tests. A definitive diagnosis is usually made based on the DSM-V criteria. There is a lot of ongoing research on ADHD, in order to determine the neurophysiological basis of the disorder and to reach a more objective diagnosis. The advent of Machine Learning (ML) opens up promising prospects for the development of systems able to predict a diagnosis from phenotypic and neuroimaging data. This was the reason why the ADHD-200 contest was launched a few years ago. Based on the publicly available ADHD-200 collection, participants were challenged to predict ADHD with the best possible predictive accuracy. In the present work, we propose instead a ML methodology which primarily places importance on the explanatory power of a model. Such an approach is intended to achieve a fair trade-off between the needs of performance and interpretability expected from medical diagnosis aid systems. We applied our methodology on a data sample extracted from the ADHD-200 collection, through the development of decision trees which are valued for their readability. Our analysis indicates the relevance of the limbic system for the diagnosis of the disorder. Moreover, while providing explanations that make sense, the resulting decision tree performs favorably given the recent results reported in the literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Solving the supply–demand imbalance is the most crucial issue for stable implementation of a public bike-sharing system. This gap can be reduced by increasing the accuracy of demand prediction by considering spatial and temporal properties of bike demand. However, only a few attempts have been made to account for both features simultaneously. Therefore, we propose a prediction framework based on graph convolutional networks. Our framework reflects not only spatial dependencies among stations, but also various temporal patterns over different periods. Additionally, we consider the influence of global variables, such as weather and weekday/weekend to reflect non-station-level changes. We compare our framework to other baseline models using the data from Seoul’s bike-sharing system. Results show that our approach has better performance than existing prediction models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: To adapt and validate a previously developed decision tree for youth to identify bedrest for use in preschool children. Methods: Parents of healthy preschool (3-6-year-old) children (n = 610; 294 males) were asked to help them to wear an accelerometer for 7 to 10 days and 24 hours/day on their waist. Children with ≥3 nights of valid recordings were randomly allocated to the development (n = 200) and validation (n = 200) groups. Wear periods from accelerometer recordings were identified minute-by-minute as bedrest or wake using visual identification by two independent raters. To automate visual identification, chosen decision tree (DT) parameters (block length, threshold, bedrest-start trigger, and bedrest-end trigger) were optimized in the development group using a Nelder-Mead simplex optimization method, which maximized the accuracy of DT-identified bedrest in 1-min epochs against synchronized visually identified bedrest (n = 4,730,734). DT's performance with optimized parameters was compared with the visual identification, commonly used Sadeh's sleep detection algorithm, DT for youth (10-18-years-old), and parental survey of sleep duration in the validation group. Results: On average, children wore an accelerometer for 8.3 days and 20.8 hours/day. Comparing the DT-identified bedrest with visual identification in the validation group yielded sensitivity = 0.941, specificity = 0.974, and accuracy = 0.956. The optimal block length was 36 min, the threshold 230 counts/min, the bedrest-start trigger 305 counts/min, and the bedrest-end trigger 1,129 counts/min. In the validation group, DT identified bedrest with greater accuracy than Sadeh's algorithm (0.956 and 0.902) and DT for youth (0.956 and 0.861) (both P<0.001). Both DT (564±77 min/day) and Sadeh's algorithm (604±80 min/day) identified significantly less bedrest/sleep than parental survey (650±81 min/day) (both P<0.001). Conclusions: The DT-based algorithm initially developed for youth was adapted for preschool children to identify time spent in bedrest with high accuracy. The DT is available as a package for the R open-source software environment ("PhysActBedRest"). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The bright colors of Alpine leaf beetles (Coleoptera, Chrysomelidae) are thought to act as aposematic signals against predation. Within the European Alps, at least six species display a basal color of either blue or green, likely configuring a classic case of müllerian mimicry. In this context, intra-population color polymorphism is paradoxical as the existence of numerous color morphs might hamper the establishment of a search image in visual predators. Assortative mating may be one of the main factors contributing to the maintenance of polymorphic populations. Due to the marked iridescence of these leaf beetles, the perceived color may change as the viewing or illumination angle changes. The present study, conducted over three years, involved intensive sampling of a population of Oreina gloriosa from the Italian Alps and applied colorimetry and a decision tree method to identify the color morphs in an objective manner. The tertiary sex ratio of the population was biased in favor of males, suggesting that viviparous females hide to give birth. Seven color morphs were identified, and their frequencies varied significantly over the course of the study. Three different analyses of mating (JMating, QInfomating, and Montecarlo simulations) recognized a general trend for random mating which coexists with some instances of positive and negative assortative mating. This could help explain the pre-eminence of one morph (which would be favored because of positive selection due to positive assortative mating) in parallel with the persistence of six other morphs (maintained due to negative assortative mating). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: A key component to analyzing wearable sensor data is identifying periods of non-wear. Traditionally, strings of consecutive zero counts (e.g. >60-minutes) are identified indicating periods of non-movement. The non-movement window length is then evaluated as wear or non-wear. Given that non-movement is not equivalent to non-wear, additional criteria should be evaluated to objectively identify periods of non-wear. Identifying non-wear is especially challenging in infants due to their sporadic movement, sleep frequency, and proportion of caregiver-generated movement. Purpose: To use hip- and ankle-worn ActiGraph wGT3X-BT (wGT3X-BT) data to identify non-wear in infants. Methods: Fifteen infant participants [mean±SD; age, 8.7±1.7 weeks (range 5.4–11.3 weeks); 5.1±0.8 kg; 56.2±2.1 cm; n = 8 females] wore a wGT3X-BT on the hip and ankle. Criterion data were collected during two, 2-hour directly observed periods in the laboratory. Using raw 30 Hz acceleration data, a vector magnitude and the inclination angle of each individual axis were calculated before being averaged into 1-minute windows. Three decision tree models were developed using data from 1) hip only, 2) ankle only, and 3) hip and ankle combined. Results: The hip model classified 86.6% of all minutes (wear and non-wear) correctly (F1 = 75.5%) compared to the ankle model which classified 90.6% of all minutes correctly (F1 = 83.0%). The combined site model performed similarly to the ankle model and correctly classified 90.0% of all minutes (F1 = 80.8%). Conclusion: The similar performance between the ankle only model and the combined site model likely indicates that the features from the ankle device are more important for identifying non-wear in infants. Overall, this approach provides an advancement in the identification of device wear status using wearable sensor data in infants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Asymmetry, color variegation and diameter are considered strong indicators of malignant melanoma. The subjectivity inherent in the first two features and the fact that 10% of melanomas tend to be missed in the early diagnosis due to having a diameter less than 6mm, deem it necessary to develop an objective computer vision system to evaluate these criteria and aid in the early detection of melanoma which could eventually lead to a higher 5-year survival rate. This paper proposes an approach for evaluating the three criteria objectively, whereby we develop a measure to find asymmetry with the aid of a decision tree which we train on the extracted asymmetry measures and then use to predict the asymmetry of new skin lesion images. A range of colors that demonstrate the suspicious colors for the color variegation feature have been derived, and Feret's diameter has been utilized to find the diameter of the skin lesion. The decision tree is 80% accurate in determining the asymmetry of skin lesions, and the number of suspicious colors and diameter values are objectively identified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]