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Stock trend prediction is a challenging task due to the market’s noise, and machine learning techniques have recently been successful in coping with this challenge. In this research, we create a novel framework for stock prediction, Dynamic Advisor-Based Ensemble (dynABE). dynABE explores domain-specific areas based on the companies of interest, diversifies the feature set by creating different “advisors” that each handles a different area, follows an effective model ensemble procedure for each advisor, and combines the advisors together in a second-level ensemble through an online update strategy we developed. dynABE is able to adapt to price pattern changes of the market during the active trading period robustly, without needing to retrain the entire model. We test dynABE on three cobalt-related companies, and it achieves the best-case misclassification error of 31.12% and an annualized absolute return of 359.55% with zero maximum drawdown. dynABE also consistently outperforms the baseline models of support vector machine, neural network, and random forest in all case studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Proximal remote sensing is being used across a very wide range of research fields and by scientists, who are often without deep theoretical knowledge optical physics; the author of this article falls squarely in that category! This article highlights two optical phenomena, which may greatly influence the quality and robustness of proximal remote sensing: penetration and scattering. Penetration implies that acquired reflectance signals are associated with both physical and chemical properties of target objects from both the surface and internal tissues/structures. Scattering implies that reflectance signals acquired from one point or object are influenced by scattered radiometric energy from neighboring points or objects. Based on a series of laboratory experiments, penetration and scattering were discussed in the context of “robustness” (repeatability) of hyperspectral reflectance data. High robustness implies that it is possible to control imaging conditions and therefore: 1) obtain very similar radiometric signals from inert objects (objects that do not change) over time, and 2) be able to consistently distinguish objects that are otherwise highly similar in appearance (size, shape, and color) and in terms of biochemical composition. It was demonstrated that robustness of hyperspectral reflectance data (40 spectral bands from 385 to 1024 nm) were significantly influenced by penetration and scattering of radiometric energy. In addition, it was demonstrated that the influence of penetration and scattering varied across the examined spectrum. Characterization of how optical phenomena may affect the robustness of reflectance data is important when using proximal remote sensing technologies as tools used to classify engineering and biological objects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The reconstruction of the topology of gene regulatory networks (GRNs) using high throughput genomic data such as microarray gene expression data is an important problem in systems biology. The main challenge in gene expression data is the high number of genes and low number of samples; also the data are often impregnated with noise. In this paper, in dealing with the noisy data, Kalman filter based method that has the ability to use prior knowledge on learning the network was used. In the proposed method namely (KFLR), in the first phase by using mutual information, the noisy regulations with low correlations were removed. The proposed method utilized a new closed form solution to compute the posterior probabilities of the edges from regulators to the target gene within a hybrid framework of Bayesian model averaging and linear regression methods. In order to show the efficiency, the proposed method was compared with several well know methods. The results of the evaluation indicate that the inference accuracy was improved by the proposed method which also demonstrated better regulatory relations with the noisy data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Social and economic systems produce complex and nonlinear relationships in the indicator variables that describe them. We present a Bayesian methodology to analyze the dynamical relationships between indicator variables by identifying the nonlinear functions that best describe their interactions. We search for the ‘best’ explicit functions by fitting data using Bayesian linear regression on a vast number of models and then comparing their Bayes factors. The model with the highest Bayes factor, having the best trade-off between explanatory power and interpretability, is chosen as the ‘best’ model. To be able to compare a vast number of models, we use conjugate priors, resulting in fast computation times. We check the robustness of our approach by comparison with more prediction oriented approaches such as model averaging and neural networks. Our modelling approach is illustrated using the classical example of how democracy and economic growth relate to each other. We find that the best dynamical model for democracy suggests that long term democratic increase is only possible if the economic situation gets better. No robust model explaining economic development using these two variables was found. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There are some practical factors, such as arm position change and donning/doffing, which prevent robust myoelectric control. The objective of this study is to precisely characterize the impacts of the two representative factors on myoelectric controllability in practical control situations, thereby providing useful references that can be potentially used to find better solutions for clinically reliable myoelectric control. To this end, a real-time target acquisition task was performed by fourteen subjects including one individual with congenital upper-limb deficiency, where the impacts of arm position change, donning/doffing and a combination of both factors on control performance was systematically evaluated. The changes in online performance were examined with seven different performance metrics to comprehensively evaluate various aspects of myoelectric controllability. As a result, arm position change significantly affects offline prediction accuracy, but not online control performance due to real-time feedback, thereby showing no significant correlation between offline and online performance. Donning/doffing was still problematic in online control conditions. It was further observed that no benefit was attained when using a control model trained with multiple position data in terms of arm position change, and the degree of electrode shift caused by donning/doffing was not severely associated with the degree of performance loss under practical conditions (around 1 cm electrode shift). Since this study is the first to concurrently investigate the impacts of arm position change and donning/doffing in practical myoelectric control situations, all findings of this study provide new insights into robust myoelectric control with respect to arm position change and donning/doffing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a robust satisficing decision-making method for Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) executing complex missions in an uncertain environment. Motivated by the info-gap decision theory, we formulate this problem as a novel robust satisficing optimization problem, of which the objective is to maximize the robustness while satisfying some desired mission requirements. Specifically, a new info-gap based Markov Decision Process (IMDP) is constructed to abstract the uncertain UAV system and specify the complex mission requirements with the Linear Temporal Logic (LTL). A robust satisficing policy is obtained to maximize the robustness to the uncertain IMDP while ensuring a desired probability of satisfying the LTL specifications. To this end, we propose a two-stage robust satisficing solution strategy which consists of the construction of a product IMDP and the generation of a robust satisficing policy. In the first stage, a product IMDP is constructed by combining the IMDP with an automaton representing the LTL specifications. In the second, an algorithm based on robust dynamic programming is proposed to generate a robust satisficing policy, while an associated robustness evaluation algorithm is presented to evaluate the robustness. Finally, through Monte Carlo simulation, the effectiveness of our algorithms is demonstrated on an UAV search mission under severe uncertainty so that the resulting policy can maximize the robustness while reaching the desired performance level. Furthermore, by comparing the proposed method with other robust decision-making methods, it can be concluded that our policy can tolerate higher uncertainty so that the desired performance level can be guaranteed, which indicates that the proposed method is much more effective in real applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bioimpedance spectroscopy (BIS) measurement errors may be caused by parasitic stray capacitance, impedance mismatch, cross-talking or their very likely combination. An accurate detection and identification is of extreme importance for further analysis because in some cases and for some applications, certain measurement artifacts can be corrected, minimized or even avoided. In this paper we present a robust method to detect the presence of measurement artifacts and identify what kind of measurement error is present in BIS measurements. The method is based on supervised machine learning and uses a novel set of generalist features for measurement characterization in different immittance planes. Experimental validation has been carried out using a database of complex spectra BIS measurements obtained from different BIS applications and containing six different types of errors, as well as error-free measurements. The method obtained a low classification error (0.33%) and has shown good generalization. Since both the features and the classification schema are relatively simple, the implementation of this pre-processing task in the current hardware of bioimpedance spectrometers is possible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a recent paper, Welsh, Lindenmayer and Donnelly (WLD) question the usefulness of models that estimate species occupancy while accounting for detectability. WLD claim that these models are difficult to fit and argue that disregarding detectability can be better than trying to adjust for it. We think that this conclusion and subsequent recommendations are not well founded and may negatively impact the quality of statistical inference in ecology and related management decisions. Here we respond to WLD's claims, evaluating in detail their arguments, using simulations and/or theory to support our points. In particular, WLD argue that both disregarding and accounting for imperfect detection lead to the same estimator performance regardless of sample size when detectability is a function of abundance. We show that this, the key result of their paper, only holds for cases of extreme heterogeneity like the single scenario they considered. Our results illustrate the dangers of disregarding imperfect detection. When ignored, occupancy and detection are confounded: the same naïve occupancy estimates can be obtained for very different true levels of occupancy so the size of the bias is unknowable. Hierarchical occupancy models separate occupancy and detection, and imprecise estimates simply indicate that more data are required for robust inference about the system in question. As for any statistical method, when underlying assumptions of simple hierarchical models are violated, their reliability is reduced. Resorting in those instances where hierarchical occupancy models do no perform well to the naïve occupancy estimator does not provide a satisfactory solution. The aim should instead be to achieve better estimation, by minimizing the effect of these issues during design, data collection and analysis, ensuring that the right amount of data is collected and model assumptions are met, considering model extensions where appropriate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Temporal networks are such networks where nodes and interactions may appear and disappear at various time scales. With the evidence of ubiquity of temporal networks in our economy, nature and society, it's urgent and significant to focus on its structural controllability as well as the corresponding characteristics, which nowadays is still an untouched topic. We develop graphic tools to study the structural controllability as well as its characteristics, identifying the intrinsic mechanism of the ability of individuals in controlling a dynamic and large-scale temporal network. Classifying temporal trees of a temporal network into different types, we give (both upper and lower) analytical bounds of the controlling centrality, which are verified by numerical simulations of both artificial and empirical temporal networks. We find that the positive relationship between aggregated degree and controlling centrality as well as the scale-free distribution of node's controlling centrality are virtually independent of the time scale and types of datasets, meaning the inherent robustness and heterogeneity of the controlling centrality of nodes within temporal networks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]