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In the 2015 Paris Agreement, nations worldwide pledged emissions reductions (Nationally Determined Contributions—NDCs) to avert the threat of climate change, and agreed to periodically review these pledges to strengthen their level of ambition. Previous studies have analyzed NDCs largely in terms of their implied contribution to limit global warming, their implications on the energy sector or on mitigation costs. Nevertheless, a gap in the literature exists regarding the understanding of implications of the NDCs on countries’ Energy-Water-Land nexus resource systems. The present paper explores this angle within the regional context of Latin America by employing the Global Change Assessment Model, a state-of-the-art integrated assessment model capable of representing key system-wide interactions among nexus sectors and mitigation policies. By focusing on Brazil, Mexico, Argentina and Colombia, we stress potential implications on national-level water demands depending on countries’ strategies to enforce energy-related emissions reductions and their interplays with the land sector. Despite the differential implications of the Paris pledges on each country, increased water demands for crop and biomass irrigation and for electricity generation stand out as potential trade-offs that may emerge under the NDC policy. Hence, this study underscores the need of considering a nexus resource planning framework (known as “Nexus Approach”) in the forthcoming NDCs updating cycles as a mean to contribute toward sustainable development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this work we analyze potential environmental drivers of malaria cases in Northwestern Argentina. We inspect causal links between malaria and climatic variables by means of the convergent cross mapping technique, which provides a causality criterion from the theory of dynamic systems. Analysis is based on 12 years of weekly malaria P. vivax cases in Tartagal, Salta, Argentina—at the southern fringe of malaria incidence in the Americas—together with humidity and temperature time-series spanning the same period. Our results show that there are causal links between malaria cases and both maximum temperature, with a delay of five weeks, and minimum temperature, with delays of zero and twenty two weeks. Humidity is also a driver of malaria cases, with thirteen weeks delay between cause and effect. Furthermore we also determined the sign and strength of the effects. Temperature has always a positive non-linear effect on cases, with maximum temperature effects more pronounced above 25°C and minimum above 17°C, while effects of humidity are more intricate: maximum humidity above 85% has a negative effect, whereas minimum humidity has a positive effect on cases. These results might be signaling processes operating at short (below 5 weeks) and long (over 12 weeks) time delays, corresponding to effects related to parasite cycle and mosquito population dynamics respectively. The non-linearities found for the strength of the effect of temperature on malaria cases make warmer areas more prone to higher increases in the disease incidence. Moreover, our results indicate that an increase of extreme weather events could enhance the risks of malaria spreading and re-emergence beyond the current distribution. Both situations, warmer climate and increase of extreme events, will be remarkably increased by the end of the century in this hot spot of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

St. Louis encephalitis virus (SLEV) (Flavivirus) is a reemerging arbovirus in the southern cone of South America. In 2005, an outbreak of SLEV in central Argentina resulted in 47 human cases with 9 deaths. In Argentina, the ecology of SLEV is poorly understood. Because certain birds are the primary amplifiers in North America, we hypothesized that birds amplify SLEV in Argentina as well. We compared avian SLEV seroprevalence in a variety of ecosystems in and around Córdoba city from 2004 (before the epidemic) and 2005 (during the epidemic). We also explored spatial patterns to better understand the local ecology of SLEV transmission. Because West Nile virus (WNV) was also detected in Argentina in 2005, all analyses were also conducted for WNV. A total of 980 birds were sampled for detection of SLEV and WNV neutralizing antibodies. SLEV seroprevalence in birds increased 11-fold from 2004 to 2005. Our study demonstrated that a high proportion (99.3%) of local birds were susceptible to SLEV infection immediately prior to the 2005 outbreak, indicating that the vertebrate host population was primed to amplify SLEV. SLEV was found distributed in a variety of environments throughout the city of Córdoba. However, the force of viral transmission varied among sites. Fine scale differences in populations of vectors and vertebrate hosts would explain this variation. In summary, we showed that in 2005, both SLEV and to a lesser extent WNV circulated in the avian population. Eared Dove, Picui Ground-Dove and Great Kiskadee are strong candidates to amplify SLEV because of their exposure to the pathogen at the population level, and their widespread abundance. For the same reasons, Rufous Hornero may be an important maintenance host for WNV in central Argentina. Competence studies and vector feeding studies are needed to confirm these relationships. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]