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Background: The Coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic increased global psychological distress, emotional distress, and sleep disturbances, all known risk factors for compromised oral health. Despite this, there is limited understanding of the impacts of these psychological factors on oral health in certain populations, including Iranians. Thus, the present study investigates the associations between sociodemographic characteristics, emotional distress, sleep pattern changes, tooth brushing frequency, and oral ulcer reports in a sample of Iranian adults during the Coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. Materials and methods: This cross-sectional, web-based study collected data from Iranian adults between July and September 2022 using respondent-driven sampling. The Mental Health and Wellness questionnaire was used to gather information on sociodemographic characteristics, emotional distress, sleep pattern changes, toothbrushing frequency, and oral ulcer reports. Simple and multiple logistic regression served for statistical analysis. Results: Among the 240 participants, comprising 164 females and 76 males, with a mean age of 35.3 years (±13.3), 28 individuals (11.7%) reported reduced tooth brushing frequency, and 35 individuals (14.6%) reported oral ulcers. Male gender (OR = 2.75, p = 0.016) and sleep patterns changes (OR = 2.93, p = 0.01) increased the likelihood of reduced tooth brushing frequency. Additionally, being younger than 30 (OR = 2.87, p = 0.025) and fearing coronavirus transmission (OR = 3.42, p = 0.009) increased the odds of oral ulcers. Conclusions: Male gender and sleep pattern changes were risk factors for reduced tooth brushing frequency among the present sample of Iranian adults during the Coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. Additionally, being under 30 and fearing coronavirus transmission were identified as risk factors for oral ulcers in this population. To preserve and promote adults' oral health during public health crises, targeted educational initiatives, public health awareness campaigns, and integrated mental and oral healthcare approaches are encouraged. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a growing global health problem. Recently, an epidemic of CKD of unknown origin (CKDu), a form of CKD seen mostly in agricultural communities, has been emerged. One of the proposed causes of CKDu is pesticide use in farmers. On the other hand, the research on relation between indoor use of pesticides and CKDu is little. In this study, we aimed to investigate the association between indoor use of pesticide as well as the exposure time with CKDu. This study was done as part of the population-based cohort of Prospective Epidemiological Research Studies in Iran. We used the baseline data of the Zahedan Adult Cohort Study. All subjects with diabetes mellitus and/or hypertension, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) between 60–89 ml/min/1.73 m2, and unavailable creatinine measurement were excluded. Subjects with an eGFR of less than 60 ml/min/1.73 m2 were defined as having CKDu, and their data were compared with those with an eGFR of more than 90 ml/min/1.73 m2. Data regarding indoor pesticide use and duration of exposure were obtained through a questionnaire. After applying the exclusion criteria, 1079 subjects remained in the study. Female sex, single marital status, low physical activity, triglyceride (TG) levels of more than 150 mg/dl, body mass index (BMI) of more than 25 kg/m2, non-smokers, indoor pesticide use, and high pesticide exposure time were associated with CKDu. The effects of age, female sex, TG levels more than 150 mg/dl, pesticide use (OR 1.36; 95% CI 1.01–1.84), and high exposure time (third tertile of exposure time) compared to non-users (OR 1.64; 95% CI 1.07–2.51) remained significant in multivariable analysis. Conclusion: We found a positive association between pesticide use, as well as longer exposure time to pesticides, and impaired kidney function in cases without diabetes mellitus and hypertension. Further longitudinal studies should be carried out to confirm these findings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Pancreatic cancer (PC) is one of the most fatal malignancies, and its incidence and mortality rates are growing annually throughout the world. In this research, we aimed to investigate the time trends and identify the spatial clusters of incidence and mortality on a global scale over the last 30 years, using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2019 data. Methods: Age-standardized incidence and mortality data due to PC were extracted from the GBD study, which was carried out from 1990 to 2019. A Joinpoint regression analysis was utilized to examine trends in the incidence and mortality of PC over the past three decades. As such, spatial analyses were undertaken to detect the spatial distribution and clustering of the metrics globally. Results: It was observed that both the incidence and mortality rates were higher in males than in females worldwide. The global mortality and incidence rates significantly increased by 0.8% per year over the time of follow-up period (p<0.05). By spatial cluster analysis for mortality, European and North African countries, as well as Greenland were explored as hot spots; while South African and Southeast Asian countries were explored as cold spots. Regarding incidence, hot spots were found in European countries, Southern America, and Greenland; whilst cold spots were determined in Southern Africa and Madagascar. Conclusions: Collectively, the temporal trends disclosed a gradual rise in PC incidence and mortality rates over the period 1990–2019, reflecting the global health concern. We further found geographical variations in the patterns and identified high- and low-risk areas for incidence and mortality. These findings facilitate the design and implementation of more resource-efficient and geographically targeted treatments. Given the results of the current study, a practical approach to minimizing the future PC burden involves planned population-wide interventions, as well as primary prevention through healthier lifestyles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Non-communicable diseases represent 71% of all deaths worldwide. In 2015, Sustainable Development Goals, including target 3.4 of SDGs, were seated on the world agenda; "By 2030, reduce premature mortality from NCDs by one-third. More than half of the world's countries are not on track to reach SDG 3.4, and the COVID-19 crisis has hampered the delivery of essential NCD services globally, which means the premature death of millions of people and indicates the need for capacity building for health systems. We designed a tool to measure the capacity of the National Center for Non-Communicable Disease and then presented the proposed policy package to enhance the national center's organizational capacity. The data for this explanatory sequential mixed method study was collected using quantitative and qualitative approaches between February 2020 and December 2021. The tool for assessing organizational capacity for NCDs was developed, and its validity and reliability were measured. The developed tool assessed the organizational capacity by evaluating NCNCD's managers and experts. Following the quantitative phase, a qualitative phase focused on the low-capacity points revealed by the tool. The causes of low capacity were investigated, as well as potential interventions to improve capacity. The developed tool comprises six main domains and eighteen subdomains, including (Governance, Organizational Management, Human Resources Management, Financial Management, Program Management, and Relations Management) which verified validity and reliability. In seven separate National Center for Non-Communicable Disease units, the organizational capacity was measured using the designed tool. (Cardiovascular disease and hypertension; diabetes; chronic respiratory disease; obesity and physical activity; tobacco and alcohol; nutrition; and cancers). The organizational management dimensions and the sub-dimensions of the organizational structure of the Ministry of Health and Medical Education and units affiliated with the national center, in all cases, were almost one of the main challenges that affected the country's capacity to fight against NCDs. However, all units had a relatively good situation in terms of governance (mission statement, vision, and written strategic plan). The content analysis of experts' opinions on the low-capacity subdomains highlighted challenges and recommended capacity-building interventions. Transparency in methods and processes is necessary to allocate funding among various health programs and evaluate their effects through cost-effectiveness indicators. This study identified weak points or areas where capacity building is required. The root causes of low capacity and interventions to build capacity are listed in each dimension of the tool. Some of the proposed interventions, such as strengthening organizational structures, have the potential to impact other domains. Improving organizational capacity for NCDs can assist countries to achieve national and global goals with greater efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 (SDG 3.2) is to reduce Under-5 and neonatal mortality rates (U5MR and NMR), two major health systems' performance indicators, globally by 2030. We aimed to report Iran's U5MR and NMR status during 2010–2017 and its achievement of SDG 3.2 by 2030, using scenario-based projection. Study design: To estimate the national and subnational levels of U5MR and NMR, we applied an Ensemble Bayesian Model Averaging (EBMA) with Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) and Spatio_temporal models. We used all available data sources including: 12-year data from the Death Registration System (DRS), two censuses, and a demographic and health surveys (DHS). This study employed two approaches, Maternal Age Cohort (MAC) and Maternal Age Period (MAP), to analyze summary birth history data obtained from censuses and DHS. In addition, we calculated the child mortality rate directly from DHS using the complete birth history method. National and subnational NMR was projected up to 2030 with a scenario-based method using average Annual Rate of Reduction (ARR) introduced by UN-IGME. Results: In 2017, national U5MR and NMR were 15·2 (12·4–18·0) and 11·8 (10·4–13·2), with an average ARR of 5·1% (2·1–8·9) and 3·1% (0·9–5·8) during 2010–2017, respectively. According to our projection scenarios, 17 provinces have not fulfilled SDG 3.2 for NMR yet, and the current trend (the current trend of NMR improvement in Iran) will not result in reaching SDG for some provinces by 2030; However, if each province has the same neonatal mortality annual reduction rate as the best-performing province in the same region, besides achieving SDG, the national NMR will be reduced to 5·2, and almost 92,000 newborn lives will be saved. Conclusions: Iran has achieved SDG3.2 regarding U5MR and NMR; however, there are provincial inequalities. For all provinces to reach SDG3.2, health policies should focus on reducing provincial inequalities by precise planning for neonatal health care. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Identification of metabolomics profile in subjects with different blood pressure, including normal blood pressure, elevated blood pressure, stage 1 hypertension, and stage 2 hypertension, would be a promising strategy to understand the pathogenesis of hypertension. Thus, we conducted this study to investigate the association of plasma acylcarnitines and amino acids with hypertension in a large Iranian population. Methods: 1200 randomly selected subjects from the national survey on the Surveillance of Risk Factors of Non-Communicable Diseases in Iran (STEPs 2016) were divided into four groups based on the ACC/AHA hypertension criteria: normal blood pressure (n = 293), elevated blood pressure (n = 135), stage 1 hypertension (n = 325), and stage 2 hypertension (n = 447). Plasma concentrations of 30 acylcarnitines and 20 amino acids were measured using a targeted approach with flow-injection tandem mass spectrometry. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis was applied to estimate the association between metabolites level and the risk of hypertension. Age, sex, BMI, total cholesterol, triglyceride, HDL cholesterol, fasting plasma glucose, use of oral glucose-lowering drugs, statins, and antihypertensive drugs were adjusted in regression analysis. Results: Of 50 metabolites, 34 were associated with an increased likelihood of stage 2 hypertension and 5 with a decreased likelihood of stage 2 hypertension. After full adjustment for potential confounders, 5 metabolites were still significant risk markers for stage 2 hypertension including C0 (OR = 0.75; 95%CI: 0.63, 0.90), C12 (OR = 1.18; 95%CI: 1.00, 1.40), C14:1 (OR = 1.20; 95%CI: 1.01, 1.42), C14:2 (OR = 1.19; 95%CI: 1.01, 1.41), and glycine (OR = 0.81; 95%CI: 0.68, 0.96). An index that included glycine and serine also showed significant predictive value for stage 2 hypertension after full adjustment (OR = 0.86; 95%CI: 0.75, 0.98). Conclusions: Five metabolites were identified as potentially valuable predictors of stage 2 hypertension. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Metabolic syndrome (MS) is common among Muslim patients living in China, most of whom are Kazakh adults. Continuous and effective health self-management plays a critical role in preventing negative health outcomes for individuals with MS. However, Muslim minority patients with MS face many difficulties in actively participating in health self-management, and the factors supporting their successful self-management of MS remain unclear. Objective: This study aimed to identify the factors predicting health self-management behaviour among Kazakh MS patients and provide empirical evidence for establishing recommendation guidelines or intervention programmes for health self-management among Muslim minorities. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted in Xinjiang Province, China, with the use of convenience sampling to explore the current health self-management behaviour of 454 Kazakh MS patients and its influencing factors. Univariate analysis and logistic regression were used to analyse the data. Results: The total health self-management behaviour score of Kazakh MS patients was 85.84±11.75, and the weaknesses in self-management behaviour were mainly reflected in three dimensions: disease self-monitoring, emotion management and communication with physicians. The significant positive predictors of health self-management behaviour were sex, education, family monthly income per capita, weight, knowledge of MS, and self-efficacy, while the significant negative predictors were blood pressure, the number of MS components, chronic disease comorbidities, and social support (objective support and utilization of support). Conclusion: The health self-management behaviour of Kazakh MS patients is poor. Health care providers should aim to develop culturally specific and feasible health management intervention programmes based on the weaknesses and major modifiable influencing factors in Muslim minority MS patient health self-management, thus improving the health outcomes and quality of life of patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Environmental exposures account for a growing proportion of global mortality. Large cohort studies are needed to characterize the independent impact of environmental exposures on mortality in low-income settings. Methods: We collected data on individual and environmental risk factors for a multiethnic cohort of 50,045 individuals in a low-income region in Iran. Environmental risk factors included: ambient fine particular matter air pollution; household fuel use and ventilation; proximity to traffic; distance to percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) center; socioeconomic environment; population density; local land use; and nighttime light exposure. We developed a spatial survival model to estimate the independent associations between these environmental exposures and all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. Findings: Several environmental factors demonstrated associations with mortality after adjusting for individual risk factors. Ambient fine particulate matter air pollution predicted all-cause mortality (per μg/m3, HR 1.20, 95% CI 1.07, 1.36) and cardiovascular mortality (HR 1.17, 95% CI 0.98, 1.39). Biomass fuel use without chimney predicted all-cause mortality (reference = gas, HR 1.23, 95% CI 0.99, 1.53) and cardiovascular mortality (HR 1.36, 95% CI 0.99, 1.87). Kerosene fuel use without chimney predicted all-cause mortality (reference = gas, HR 1.09, 95% CI 0.97, 1.23) and cardiovascular mortality (HR 1.19, 95% CI 1.01, 1.41). Distance to PCI center predicted all-cause mortality (per 10km, HR 1.01, 95% CI 1.004, 1.022) and cardiovascular mortality (HR 1.02, 95% CI 1.004, 1.031). Additionally, proximity to traffic predicted all-cause mortality (HR 1.13, 95% CI 1.01, 1.27). In a separate validation cohort, the multivariable model effectively predicted both all-cause mortality (AUC 0.76) and cardiovascular mortality (AUC 0.81). Population attributable fractions demonstrated a high mortality burden attributable to environmental exposures. Interpretation: Several environmental factors predicted cardiovascular and all-cause mortality, independent of each other and of individual risk factors. Mortality attributable to environmental factors represents a critical opportunity for targeted policies and programs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: To integrate and execute a proper preventive plan and reduce the risk of non-communicable diseases (NCDs), policy makers need to have access to both reliable data and a unique definition of metabolic syndrome (MetS). This study was conducted on the data collected by cross-sectional studies of WHO's STEPwise approach to surveillance of NCD risk factors (STEPs) to estimate the national and sub-national prevalence rates of MetS in Iran in 2016. Materials and methods: The prevalence of MetS was estimated among 18,414 individuals aged ≥25 years living in urban and rural areas of Iran using various definition criteria; National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III 2004 (ATP III), International Diabetes Federation (IDF), American Heart Association/National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (AHA/NHLBI), Joint Interim Statement (JIS). Regional IDF (RIDF) and JIS (RJIS) were defined using ethnicity-specific values of waist circumference for the country. Results: National prevalence rate of MetS based on ATP III, IDF, AHA/NHLBI, JIS, RIDF and RJIS criteria were 38.3% (95% CI 37.4–39.1), 43.5% (42.7–44.4), 40.9% (40.1–41.8), 47.6% (46.8–48.5), 32.0% (31.2–32.9), and 40.8% (40.0–41.7), respectively. The prevalence was higher among females, in urban residents, and those aged 65–69 years. MetS was expected to affect about 18.7, 21.3, 20.0, 23.3, 15.7, and 20.0 million Iranians, respectively, based on ATP III, IDF, AHA/NHLBI, JIS, RIDF and RJIS. The two most common components noted in this population were reduced high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) levels and central obesity. Conclusion: High prevalence rate of MetS among Iranian adults is alarming, especially among females, urban residents, and the elderly. The JIS definition criteria is more appropriate to determine higher number of Iranians at risk of NCDs. Proper management and prevention of MetS is required to adopt multiple national plans including lifestyle modifications, medical interventions, and public education on NCDs risk factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: The prevalence of oral hygiene behaviors (OHB) is very low among school children in Ethiopia. However, the determinants of student's readiness/intention to perform those behaviors have been remained unstudied. Objective: This study aimed to identify the determinants of oral hygiene behavioral intention (OHBI) among preparatory school students based on the theory of planned behavior (TPB). Methods and materials: An institution-based cross-sectional study was conducted among 393 students. A 98-item self-administered questionnaire was used to evaluate oral hygiene knowledge (OHK), oral hygiene behavior (OHB), and OHBI based on TPB variables [attitude (ATT), subjective norms (SN) and perceived behavioral control (PBC)]. Descriptive statistics and structural equation modeling analysis (SEM) were employed to confirm relationships and associations among study variables. A p-value of less than 0.05 and a 95% confidence interval were used to declare statistical significance. Results: A total of 393 students were participated with a response rate of 97.5%. The mean age of the participants (54% females) was 18 (± 1.3) with an age range of 16 to 24. The TPB model was well fitted to the data and explained 66% of the variance in intention. ATT (β = 0.38; 95% CI, (0.21, 0.64)), SN (β = 0.33; 95% CI, (0.05, 0.83)) and PBC (β = 0.29; 95% CI, (0.13, 0.64)) were significant predictors of OHBI, where ATT was the strongest predictor of OHBI. Conclusion: The TPB model explained a large variance in the intention of students to improve their OHB. All TPB variables were significantly and positively linked to stronger intent, as the theory suggests. Furthermore, these results suggest that the model could provide a framework for oral hygiene promotion interventions in the study area. Indeed, these interventions should focus on changing the attitudes of students towards OHB, creation of positive social pressure, and enabling students to control over OHB barriers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Rapid urbanization and industrialization drives the rising burden of Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs) worldwide that are characterized by uptake of unhealthy lifestyle such as tobacco and alcohol use, physical inactivity and unhealthy diet. In India, the prevalence of various NCDs and its risk factors shows wide variations across geographic regions necessitating region-specific evidence for population-based prevention and control of NCDs. Objective: To estimate the prevalence of behavioral and biological risk factors of NCDs among adult population (18–69 years) in the Puducherry district located in Southern part of India. Methodology: We surveyed adults using the World Health Organization (WHO) prescribed STEPwise approach to NCD surveillance (STEPS) during February 2019 to February 2020. A total of 2560 individuals were selected from urban and rural areas (50 clusters in each) through multi-stage cluster random sampling method. STEPS instrument was used to assess behavioral and physical measurements. Fasting blood sample was collected to estimate biochemical risk factors (Diabetes, Hypercholesterolemia) of NCDs. Results: Among men, alcohol use 40.4% (95% CI: 37.4–43.4) was almost twice higher compared to tobacco use 24.4% (95% CI: 21.7–26.9). Nearly half of the population was physically inactive 45.8% (95% CI: 43.8–47.8) and obese 46.1% (95% CI: 44–48.1). Hypertension and diabetes mellitus were present among one-third 33.6% (95% CI: 31.6–35.5) and one-fourth 26.7% (95% CI: 24.1–29.1) of the population which were significantly higher among men (37.1% vs 30.8% and 31.6% vs 23.2% respectively). Physical inactivity and overweight/obesity increased with increasing education levels. Tobacco and alcohol use was more common among men, whereas physical inactivity with obesity and hypercholesterolemia was higher among women. Conclusion: We found high prevalence of various NCDs and its risk factors among the adult population of Puducherry district. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Even though anemia was highly targeted in different global strategies, many pregnant and/or lactating women and children were suffering from it and its complications. Besides this, prior trend analysis has not been conducted among pregnant and/or lactating women in Ethiopia. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the trend and determinants of anemia change among pregnant and/or lactating women in Ethiopia. Methods: The study utilized two consecutive Ethiopia Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS) datasets. A total of 6,106 and 5,641 pregnant and/or lactating women in 2011 and 2016 survey respectively were included in the analysis. The data were analyzed by using Stata version 14.0. Logit based decomposition analysis was done to identify contributing factors for anemia change and statistical significance was determined by using P-value. Results: The trend of anemia was increased from 19% in 2011 to 29% in 2016 EDHS. The analysis revealed that, 8% of the overall change in anemia was because of the change in women's composition. Changes in the composition of pregnant and/or lactating women according to region, economic status and tobacco and/or cigarette use were the major sources of the change. Greater than 90% of the increase in anemia was due to differences in the coefficient. Mostly, the change in behaviors of the Amhara population, those who had a history of terminated pregnancy and use tobacco and/or cigarette were the sources of the change. Conclusions: Anemia among pregnant and/or lactating women was increased against government interventions over the last half-decade in Ethiopia. Programmatic interventions targeting Somali and Dire Dawa regions are still needed to decrease anemia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and aims: Many countries lack resources to identify patients at risk of developing Type 2 diabetes mellitus (diabetes). We aimed to develop and validate a diabetes risk score based on easily accessible clinical data. Methods: Prospective study including 5277 participants (55.0% women, 51.8±10.5 years) free of diabetes at baseline. Comparison with two other published diabetes risk scores (Balkau and Kahn clinical, respectively 5 and 8 variables) and validation on three cohorts (Europe, Iran and Mexico) was performed. Results: After a mean follow-up of 10.9 years, 405 participants (7.7%) developed diabetes. Our score was based on age, gender, waist circumference, diabetes family history, hypertension and physical activity. The area under the curve (AUC) was 0.772 for our score, vs. 0.748 (p<0.001) and 0.774 (p = 0.668) for the other two. Using a 13-point threshold, sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values (95% CI) of our score were 60.5 (55.5–65.3), 77.1 (75.8–78.2), 18.0 (16.0–20.1) and 95.9 (95.2–96.5) percent, respectively. Our score performed equally well or better than the other two in the Iranian [AUC 0.542 vs. 0.564 (p = 0.476) and 0.513 (p = 0.300)] and Mexican [AUC 0.791 vs. 0.672 (p<0.001) and 0.778 (p = 0.575)] cohorts. In the European cohort, it performed similarly to the Balkau score but worse than the Kahn clinical [AUC 0.788 vs. 0.793 (p = 0.091) and 0.816 (p<0.001)]. Diagnostic capacity of our score was better than the Balkau score and comparable to the Kahn clinical one. Conclusion: Our clinically-based score shows encouraging results compared to other scores and can be used in populations with differing diabetes prevalence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Guangxi is one of the provinces having the highest notification rate of tuberculosis in China. However, spatial and temporal patterns and the association between environmental diversity and tuberculosis notification are still unclear. Objective: To detect the spatiotemporal pattern of tuberculosis notification rates from 2010 to 2016 and its potential association with ecological environmental factors in Guangxi Zhuang autonomous region, China. Methods: We performed a spatiotemporal analysis with prediction using time series analysis, Moran’s I global and local spatial autocorrelation statistics, and space-time scan statistics to detect temporal and spatial clusters of tuberculosis notifications in Guangxi between 2010 and 2016. Spatial panel models were employed to identify potential associating factors. Results: The number of reported cases peaked in spring and summer and decreased in autumn and winter. The predicted number of reported cases was 49,946 in 2017. Moran's I global statistics were greater than 0 (0.363–0.536) during the study period. The most significant hot spots were mainly located in the central area. The eastern area exhibited a low-low relation. By the space-time scanning, the clusters identified were similar to those of the local autocorrelation statistics, and were clustered toward the early part of 2016. Duration of sunshine, per capita gross domestic product, the treatment success rate of tuberculosis and participation rate of the new cooperative medical care insurance scheme in rural areas had a significant negative association with tuberculosis notification rates. Conclusion: The notification rate of tuberculosis in Guangxi remains high, with the highest notification cluster located in the central region. The notification rate is associated with economic level, treatment success rate and participation in the new cooperative medical care insurance scheme. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: The objective of this study was to build and assess the performance of survival prediction models using the gender-specific informative risk factors for patients with left ventricular systolic dysfunction. Methods: A lasso approach was used to decide the informative predictors for building semi-parametric proportional hazards Cox model. Separate models were built for all patients [N = 299], male patients [Nmale = 194 (64.88%)], and female patients [Nfemale = 105 (35.12%)], to observe the risk factors associated with the individual’s risk of death. The likelihood- ratio test was used to test the goodness of fit of the selected model, and the C-index was used to assess the predictive performance of the selected model(s) with respect to the overall model with all observed risk factors. Results: The survival prediction model for females is notably different from that for males. For males, smoking, diabetes, and anaemia, whereas for females, ejection fraction, sodium, and platelets count are non-informative with zero regression coefficients. The goodness of fit of the selected models with respect to the general model with all observed risk factors is tested using the likelihood-ratio test. The results are in favor of the selected models with p-values 0.51,0.61, and 0.70 for all patients, male patients, and female patients, respectively. The same values of C-index for the full model and the selected models for overall data, for males, and for females (0.72, 0.73, and 0.77 for overall data, male data, and female data, respectively) indicate that the selected models are as good as the corresponding overall models regarding their predictive performance. Conclusion: There is a substantial difference in the survival prediction models for heart failure (HF) of male and female patients in this study. More studies are needed in Pakistan for confirming this striking male-female difference regarding the potential risk factors to predict survival with heart failure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: To examine the trend of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) risk factors among a Middle Eastern population with prevalent CVD during a median follow up of 12 years. Methods: Patients with prevalent CVD (n = 282, men = 167), with a mean age of 60.76 years were evaluated in four study phases of the TLGS (Tehran lipid glucose study), 2002–2005, 2005–2008, 2008–2011, and 2011–2014. Trends of CVD risk factors were estimated using generalized estimation equation (GEE) models, by adjusting for gender, age and propensity scores. Result: The adjusted prevalence of general and central adiposity, diabetes and physical inactivity at baseline was 25.18, 60.14, 25.03 and 43.74%, respectively and had increasing trends during the study period, reaching 41.32, 66.74, 43.20 and 50.32%, respectively, at the last visit. Although systolic, but not diastolic blood pressure, decreased from 134.88 to 129.86 mmHg, the prevalence of hypertension did not decrease (64.21% vs 68%, p value = 0.326). The prevalence of low high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), hypertriglyceridemia and high non-HDL-C at baseline was 74.54, 59.89 and 96.53%, respectively, and showed improved trends reaching 44.87, 47.12 and 96.06% respectively; however, the favorable trend was not observed for high low density cholesterol. Significant increasing trends were observed in the consumption of anti-hypertensive, lipid and glucose lowering medications, but not for aspirin. The prevalence of current smoking (11.05 vs 16.83%, p value = 0.042) and chronic kidney disease (44.16 vs 51.65%, p value = 0.054) increased during follow up. Conclusion: Except for lipid profile status, dangerous trends for other CVD risk factors were demonstrated among CVD patients, which can be a harbinger for high rates of CVD mortality; these findings highlight the need for urgent implementation of multicomponent interventions to control CVD risk factors among these patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To examine associations of sex-specific related factors with pre-diabetes in Tehranian non-diabetic adults. Methods: This study has been conducted within the framework of the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study (TLGS) between 2008–2010. A total of 5568 (55.4% female) non-diabetic adults, aged ≥20 years, selected from among participants of the TLGS, were recruited for the study. Data on socio-behavioral factors, family history of diabetes and cardio-metabolic risk factors were included in the hypothesized model to test their direct and indirect associations with pre-diabetes in men and women separately, using structural equation modeling. Results: Pre-diabetes was diagnosed in 23.6% of participants, with significantly higher prevalence in men compared to women (27.4% and 20.5%, respectively; p<0.001). Body mass index (BMI) and triglycerides (TG) in both sexes and hypertension and high density lipoprotein only in women, were directly associated with pre-diabetes (p<0.05). Poor diet in women was the only behavioral factor directly associated with pre-diabetes (p<0.05). Age in both sexes and education, only in women, were directly associated with pre-diabetes. In both genders, age, marital status, education, employment, poor diet and leisure time physical activity were indirectly associated with pre-diabetes through cardio-metabolic risk factors. Conclusions: The main modifiable factors directly associated with pre-diabetes were TG in women and BMI in men, which need to be prioritized in health policies for diabetes prevention programs in Tehranian adults. Future research should focus on the gender-specific determinants and underlying mechanisms for TG levels and BMI status among this population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The aim of this study was to estimate the economic burden of diabetes mellitus (DM) in Iran from 2009 to 2030. Methods: A Markov micro-simulation (MM) model was developed to predict the DM population size and associated economic burden. Age- and sex-specific prevalence and incidence of diagnosed and undiagnosed DM were derived from national health surveys. A systematic review was performed to identify the cost of diabetes in Iran and the mean annual direct and indirect costs of patients with DM were estimated using a random-effect Bayesian meta-analysis. Face, internal, cross and predictive validity of the MM model were assessed by consulting an expert group, performing sensitivity analysis (SA) and comparing model results with published literature and national survey reports. Sensitivity analysis was also performed to explore the effect of uncertainty in the model. Results: We estimated 3.78 million cases of DM (2.74 million diagnosed and 1.04 million undiagnosed) in Iran in 2009. This number is expected to rise to 9.24 million cases (6.73 million diagnosed and 2.50 million undiagnosed) by 2030. The mean annual direct and indirect costs of patients with DM in 2009 were US$ 556 (posterior standard deviation, 221) and US$ 689 (619), respectively. Total estimated annual cost of DM was $3.64 (2009 US$) billion (including US$1.71 billion direct and US$1.93 billion indirect costs) in 2009 and is predicted to increase to $9.0 (in 2009 US$) billion (including US$4.2 billion direct and US$4.8 billion indirect costs) by 2030. Conclusions: The economic burden of DM in Iran is predicted to increase markedly in the coming decades. Identification and implementation of effective strategies to prevent and manage DM should be considered as a public health priority. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]