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This paper aims to demonstrate the impact of coal enterprises’ vertical integration on the performance of innovation corporate social responsibility (ICSR) and to elaborate its specific transmission path through financing structure and market power. This paper takes the data of A-share listed coal company from 2008 to 2017 as samples, uses input-output table method to measure the degree of vertical integration, and explores the relationship between the four factors through multiple linear regression and Bootstrap method. We found that: (1) the vertical integration of coal enterprises has positive incentives for the promotion of ICSR. (2) Financing structure and market power play a chain intermediary role in this process of incentive. (3) In areas with high marketization process, vertical integration has more significant incentive effect on ICSR. The paper extends the research on the relationship between vertical integration and innovation, which provides a reference for the improvement of China’s supply-side reform and corporate social responsibility (CSR) fulfillment policy. It is helpful to promote the sustainable development of the coal industry, stimulate the innovation vitality of enterprises, and improve the fulfillment of CSR. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) universities are important bases for science and technology research and play a critical role in China’s National Innovation System. Based on the Web of Science (WoS), this article analyzes the statistics of paper published by MIIT universities and universities from across China including MIIT universities. The results are as follows: (1) Both the MIIT universities and universities nationwide in China have increased their international academic publications, and MIIT have shown a greater increase for the past decade. (2) In terms of U-I-G interaction, for UG relations, the Tug value of MIIT universities has remained stable, while that of universities in China has become declined. For UI relations, the Tui value of both MIIT universities and universities in China has shown steady growth. For UIG relations, MIIT universities have a greater synergistic effect of Triple Helix relationship than universities in China. (3) For more details in seven MIIT universities, universities elected into “Project 985”, including HIT, BUAA, BIT and NPU, have published more papers, and been more synergistic with government and industry (UIG relations) than other three universities, including NUAA, NUST and HEU. Based on the empirical results, we discuss our findings, and make certain suggestions regarding policy incentives, reasonable administrative system and U-I-G interaction mode, which is significant not only for Chinese universities but also for universities in other developing countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, with the rapid development of China's air transport industry and the change in market consumption structure, service quality has become one of the important factors affecting airline revenue. How to formulate a reasonable pricing strategy and maintain competitiveness in the fierce market competition has become an urgent problem for airlines. First, the impact factor of service quality level in the traditional pricing model is introduced and a static price competition model for multi-oligopoly airlines based on service quality is established in this paper. And then, a dynamic pricing model based on service quality of the multi-oligopoly airlines is established. The model incorporates the weight factor of service quality impact, which is used to indicate the weight of the service quality level in the process of airline dynamic pricing. The research results show that the service quality level of airlines has an indispensable influence on its development. Airlines should improve service quality as soon as possible to enhance market competitiveness and achieve sustainable development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The changing population age structure has a significant influence on the economy, society, and numerous other aspects of a country. This paper has innovatively applied the method of compositional data forecasting for the prediction of population age changes of the young (aged 0–14), the middle-aged (aged 15–64), and the elderly (aged older than 65) in China, India, and Vietnam by 2030 based on data from 1960 to 2016. To select the best-suited forecasting model, an array of data transformation approaches and forecasting models have been extensively employed, and a large number of comparisons have been made between the aforementioned methods. The best-suited model for each country is identified considering the root mean squared error and mean absolute percent error values from the compositional data. As noted in this study, first and foremost, it is predicted that by the year 2030, China will witness the disappearance of population dividend and get mired in an aging problem far more severe than that of India or Vietnam. Second, Vietnam’s trend of change in population age structure resembles that of China, but the country will sustain its good health as a whole. Finally, the working population of India demonstrates a strong rising trend, indicating that the age structure of the Indian population still remains relatively “young”. Meanwhile, the continuous rise in the proportion of elderly population and the gradual leveling off growth of the young population have nevertheless become serious problems in the world. The present paper attempts to offer crucial insights into the Asian population size, labor market and urbanization, and, moreover, provides suggestions for a sustainable global demographic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aiming to solve the safety problems of high-speed railway operation and management, one new method is urgently needed to construct on the basis of the rough set theory and the uncertainty measurement theory. The method should carefully consider every factor of high-speed railway operation that realizes the measurement indexes of its safety operation. After analyzing the factors that influence high-speed railway safety operation in detail, a rough measurement model is finally constructed to describe the operation process. Based on the above considerations, this paper redistricts the safety influence factors of high-speed railway operation as 16 measurement indexes which include staff index, vehicle index, equipment index and environment. And the paper also provides another reasonable and effective theoretical method to solve the safety problems of multiple attribute measurement in high-speed railway operation. As while as analyzing the operation data of 10 pivotal railway lines in China, this paper respectively uses the rough set-based measurement model and value function model (one model for calculating the safety value) for calculating the operation safety value. The calculation result shows that the curve of safety value with the proposed method has smaller error and greater stability than the value function method’s, which verifies the feasibility and effectiveness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effectiveness of rapid rail transit system is analyzed using tools of complex network for the first time. We evaluated the effectiveness of the system in Beijing quantitatively from different perspectives, including descriptive statistics analysis, bridging property, centrality property, ability of connecting different part of the system and ability of disease spreading. The results showed that the public transport of Beijing does benefit from the rapid rail transit lines, and the benefit of different regions from RRTS is gradually decreased from the north to the south. The paper concluded with some policy suggestions regarding how to promote the system. This study offered significant insight that can help understand the public transportation better. The methodology can be easily applied to analyze other urban public systems, such as electricity grid, water system, to develop more livable cities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To balance the supply and demand in China's beef market, beef consumption must be scientifically and effectively forecasted. Beef consumption is affected by many factors and is characterized by gray uncertainty. Therefore, gray theory can be used to forecast the beef consumption, In this paper, the structural defects and unreasonable parameter design of the traditional gray model are analyzed. Then, a new gray model termed, EGM(1,1,r), is built, and the modeling conditions and error checking methods of EGM(1,1,r) are studied. Then, EGM(1,1,r) is used to simulate and forecast China’s beef consumption. The results show that both the simulation and prediction precisions of the new model are better than those of other gray models. Finally, the new model is used to forecast China’s beef consumption for the period from 2019–2025. The findings will serve as an important reference for the Chinese government in formulating policies to ensure the balance between the supply and demand for Chinese beef. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper develops two-stage inverse data envelopment analysis models with undesirable outputs to formulate resource plans for 16 Chinese listed commercial banks whose outputs are increased and overall efficiency is kept unchanged in the short term. We use these models to meet three different output targets, namely, increasing both the desirable and undesirable outputs by the same percentage, increasing these outputs by different percentages, and increasing only the desirable outputs while keeping the undesirable outputs unchanged. We find that operation cost and interest expense are more flexible than labor in the adjustment process and that deposits have no obvious law of change. The findings of this work provide some suggestions for bank managers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, based on the panel data of 31 provinces and cities in China from 1991 to 2016, the regional development efficiency matrix of high-end talent is obtained by DEA method, and the matrix is converted into a continuous change of complex networks through the construction of sliding window. Using a series of continuous changes in the complex network topology statistics, the characteristics of regional high-end talent development efficiency system are analyzed. And the results show that the average development efficiency of high-end talent in the western region is at a low level. After 2005, the national regional high-end talent development efficiency network has both short-range relevance and long-range relevance in the evolution process. The central region plays an important intermediary role in the national regional high-end talent development system. And the western region has high clustering characteristics. With the implementation of the high-end talent policies with regional characteristics by different provinces and cities, the relevance of high-end talent development efficiency in various provinces and cities presents a weakening trend, and the geographical characteristics of high-end talent are more and more obvious. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Circuity, defined as the ratio of the shortest network distance to the Euclidean distance between one origin–destination (O-D) pair, can be adopted as a helpful evaluation method of indirect degrees of train paths. In this paper, the maximum circuity of the paths of operated trains is set to be the threshold value of the circuity of high-speed train paths. For the shortest paths of any node pairs, if their circuity is not higher than the threshold value, the paths can be regarded as the reasonable paths. With the consideration of a certain relative or absolute error, we cluster the reasonable paths on the basis of their inclusion relationship and the center path of each class represents a passenger transit corridor. We take the high-speed rail (HSR) network in China at the end of 2014 as an example, and obtain 51 passenger transit corridors, which are alternative sets of train paths. Furthermore, we analyze the circuity distribution of paths of all node pairs in the network. We find that the high circuity of train paths can be decreased with the construction of a high-speed railway line, which indicates that the structure of the HSR network in China tends to be more complete and the HSR network can make the Chinese railway network more efficient. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a sustainable transportation mode, high-speed railway (HSR) has become an efficient way to meet the huge travel demand. However, due to the high acquisition and maintenance cost, it is impossible to build enough infrastructure and purchase enough train-sets. Great efforts are required to improve the transport capability of HSR. The utilization efficiency of train-sets (carrying tools of HSR) is one of the most important factors of the transport capacity of HSR. In order to enhance the utilization efficiency of the train-sets, this paper proposed a train-set circulation optimization model to minimize the total connection time. An innovative two-stage approach which contains segments generation and segments combination was designed to solve this model. In order to verify the feasibility of the proposed approach, an experiment was carried out in the Beijing-Tianjin passenger dedicated line, to fulfill a 174 trips train diagram. The model results showed that compared with the traditional Ant Colony Algorithm (ACA), the utilization efficiency of train-sets can be increased from 43.4% (ACA) to 46.9% (Two-Stage), and 1 train-set can be saved up to fulfill the same transportation tasks. The approach proposed in the study is faster and more stable than the traditional ones, by using which, the HSR staff can draw up the train-sets circulation plan more quickly and the utilization efficiency of the HSR system is also improved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Around the world, regulatory bodies have taken the lead in determining the competencies required to become a physician. As a first step in addressing this project, it was decided to develop a set of core competencies that were unique to China and that might serve as a basis for medical education. The purpose of this paper was to construct a competency model for clinical physicians in China. Methods: Data was collected using a cross-sectional survey of 6247 clinicians from seven administrative regions (31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government) in China. The total sample was randomly divided into two sub-samples, an initial sample (Sample 1) and a replication sample (Sample 2). Independent exploratory factor analysis was conducted in each sample and the results were compared to determine the stability. After that the confirmatory factor analysis was used to ascertain the competency model for physicians. The reliability, convergent and discriminant validity of competency-based instrument were also examined. Results: 76 items with 8 dimensions were identified, accounting for 68.41% of the construct’s total variance in the initial sample and 67.47% in the replication sample. For the two samples, the overall scale reliability (Cronbach’s alpha) was both 0.985 with dimensions from 0.905 to 0.954 for the initial sample and from 0.902 to 0.955 for the replication sample after deleting the items. In confirmatory factor analysis, the result showed that all items had acceptable goodness of fit index. RMSEA and SRMR were less than 0.08 (RMSEA = 0.046, SRMR = 0.040), while GFI, NFI, IFI, and CFI were higher than 0.9 (GFI = 0.905, NFI = 0.903, IFI = 0.909, CFI = 0.909), leading to acceptable construct validity. All construct reliability values of the factors were higher than 0.70, and all average variance extracted values exceeded 0.50. Thus, we considered the reliability and validity of the 8 dimensions were acceptable. Conclusions: The instrument was shown to be both valid and reliable for measuring clinical physicians’ competency in China. The results of the competency-based instrument can be used by ministry of health and administrators of hospitals to assess physicians’ competencies, encourage and guide them to modify their behaviors according to the evaluation criteria, and also cultivate physicians with strong clinical practice, innovation and independent scientific research ability. Through these measurements and understandings, the overall level of clinical physicians will be increased in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: About 1 million people worldwide commit suicide each year, and college students with suicidal ideation are at high risk of suicide. The prevalence of suicidal ideation in college students has been estimated extensively, but quantitative syntheses of overall prevalence are scarce, especially in China. Accurate estimates of prevalence are important for making public policy. In this paper, we aimed to determine the prevalence of suicidal ideation in Chinese college students. Objective and Methods: Databases including PubMed, Web of Knowledge, Chinese Web of Knowledge, Wangfang (Chinese database) and Weipu (Chinese database) were systematically reviewed to identify articles published between 2004 to July 2013, in either English or Chinese, reporting prevalence estimates of suicidal ideation among Chinese college students. The strategy also included a secondary search of reference lists of records retrieved from databases. Then the prevalence estimates were summarized using a random effects model. The effects of moderator variables on the prevalence estimates were assessed using a meta-regression model. Results: A total of 41 studies involving 160339 college students were identified, and the prevalence ranged from 1.24% to 26.00%. The overall pooled prevalence of suicidal ideation among Chinese college students was 10.72% (95%CI: 8.41% to 13.28%). We noted substantial heterogeneity in prevalence estimates. Subgroup analyses showed that prevalence of suicidal ideation in females is higher than in males. Conclusions: The prevalence of suicidal ideation in Chinese college students is relatively high, although the suicide rate is lower compared with the entire society, suggesting the need for local surveys to inform the development of health services for college students. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: AIDS is a worrying public health issue in China and lacks timely and effective surveillance. With the diffusion and adoption of the Internet, the ‘big data’ aggregated from Internet search engines, which contain users’ information on the concern or reality of their health status, provide a new opportunity for AIDS surveillance. This paper uses search engine data to monitor and forecast AIDS in China. Methods: A machine learning method, artificial neural networks (ANNs), is used to forecast AIDS incidences and deaths. Search trend data related to AIDS from the largest Chinese search engine, Baidu.com, are collected and selected as the input variables of ANNs, and officially reported actual AIDS incidences and deaths are used as the output variable. Three criteria, the mean absolute percentage error, the root mean squared percentage error, and the index of agreement, are used to test the forecasting performance of the ANN method. Results: Based on the monthly time series data from January 2011 to June 2017, this article finds that, under the three criteria, the ANN method can lead to satisfactory forecasting of AIDS incidences and deaths, regardless of the change in the number of search queries. Conclusions: Despite the inability to self-detect HIV/AIDS through online searching, Internet-based data should be adopted as a timely, cost-effective complement to a traditional AIDS surveillance system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine the different effects of monetary policy actions and central bank communication on China’s stock market bubbles with a Time-varying Parameter SVAR model. We find that with negative responses of fundamental component and positive responses of bubble component of asset prices, contractionary monetary policy induces the observed stock prices to rise during periods of large bubbles. By contrast, central bank communication acts on the market through expectation guidance and has more significant effects on stock prices in the long run, which implies that central bank communication be used as an effective long-term instrument for the central bank’s policymaking. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, university-industry collaborations in China and the USA are analyzed in terms of co-authored publications indexed in the Web of Science (WoS). Results show a wide gap between China and the USA: Chinese universities are much less active in collaborations with industry in terms of either publication productivity or collaboration intensity. In selecting local and foreign industrial partners, however, more variation exists among Chinese universities than among US universities. The US system is domestically oriented more than that of China. In the USA, the intensity of university-industry collaboration is determined by research quality, whereas in China this is not the case. In both China and the USA, distance is not critical for the establishment of domestic university-industry collaboration. A high correlation is found between productivity indicators including total publications and university-industry co-authored publications. However, the productivity indicators are less correlated with the intensity of university-industry collaboration. Large research universities with strong ties to domestic industry play critical roles in both national publication systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In this research, an meta-analysis was performed for assessment of the associations between O6-methyguanine-DNA methyltransferase (MGMT) promoter hypermethylation possessing low-grade intraepithelial lesion (LSIL), high-grade intraepithelial lesion (HSIL), cervical cancer (CC), and clinicopathological characters of CC. Methods: Literature selection were conducted through searching PubMed, Web of science, EMBASE, China National Knowledge Infrastructure and Wanfang databases (up to November 2018). An assessment of associations between MGMT methylation and LSIL, HSIL, CC risk and clinicopathological characteristics was performed through pooled odds ratios (ORs) with relevant 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Subgroup analyses, meta-regressions and Galbraith plots were conducted to conduct an exploration on the possible sources of heterogeneity. The genome-wide DNA methylation array studies were extracted from Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) databases for validation of these outcomes. Results: In this meta-analysis of 25 published articles, MGMT hypermethylation gradually elevated the rates among control group (12.16%), LSIL (20.92%), HSIL (36.33%) and CC (41.50%) specimens. MGMT promoter methylation was significant associated with the increased risk of LSIL by 1.74-fold (P<0.001), HSIL by 3.71-fold (P<0.001) and CC by 7.08-fold (P<0.001) compared with control. A significant association between MGMT promoter methylation with FIGO stage was also found (OR = 2.81, 95% CI: 1.79–4.41, p<0.001). The results of GEO datasets showed that 5 CpG sites in MGMT with a great diagnostic value for the screening of cervical cancer. Conclusion: The meta-analysis indicated the association between MGMT promoter hypermethylation and squamous intraepithelial lesion and cervical cancer. MGMT methylation detection might have a potential value to be an epigenetic marker for the clinical diagnosis of cervical cancer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dendrobium, an important medicinal plant, is a source of widely used herbal medicine to nourish the stomach and treat throat inflammation. The present study is aimed at distinguishing and evaluating three major Dendrobium species by comparing physiochemical characteristics and understanding differences between different growth years in the Ta-pieh Mountains. Polysaccharides and total alkaloids of Dendrobium were determined, and the amino acids and trace elements were determined by UPLC (Ultra High-Performance Liquid Chromatography) and ICP-MS (Inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry). It can be seen from the results that the polysaccharide content of these three kinds of Dendrobium in different growth years ranges from 249.31 mg·g-1 to 547.66 mg·g-1, and the highest content is in the 3-year-old Dendrobium huoshanense. The total alkaloid content ranges from 0.21 mg·g-1 to 0.54 mg·g-1, and the highest content is also the 3-year-old Dendrobium huoshanense. We determined the amino acid content of these three Dendrobium in different growth years, and we can see that each of the three kinds of Dendrobium contain seven kinds of amino acids required by the human body. We conducted a safety evaluation of the essential trace elements of Dendrobium, and the results showed that the dosage of 12g·d-1 Dendrobium prescribed in China Pharmacopoeia is in accordance with the recommended daily intake of trace elements recommended by the Food and Drug Administration of the United States, and will not cause trace element poisoning. Linear discriminant analysis was carried out on the basis of amino acids and trace elements and confirmed the applicability of multi-elemental analysis for identifying different Dendrobium species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Studies have shown that D-dimer levels are significantly correlated with the differential diagnosis and clinicopathological features of breast cancer. However, the results are currently limited and controversial. Therefore, we performed this meta-analysis to evaluate the relationship between D-dimer levels and breast cancer. Materials and methods: The PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, Chinese Biomedical Literature, and Wanfang databases were searched to find studies that assessed the association of D-dimer with clinicopathological features of breast cancer and its usefulness in aiding with differential diagnosis. The standardized mean difference (SMD) was applied as the correlation measure. Results: A total of 1244 patients with breast cancer from 15 eligible studies were included in the meta-analysis. D-dimer levels were higher in the breast cancer group than in the benign (SMD = 1.02; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.53–1.52) and healthy (SMD = 1.27; 95% CI = 0.85–1.68) control groups. In addition, elevated D-dimer levels were associated with progesterone receptor-negative tumors (SMD = -0.25; 95% CI = -0.44–-0.05). Similarly, there was a significant correlation between D-dimer levels and tumor node metastasis staging (n = 11, SMD = 0.82; 95% CI = 0.57–1.06) and lymph node involvement (n = 8, SMD = 0.79; 95% CI = 0.50–1.09). In contrast, other clinicopathological factors, including estrogen receptor expression and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 expression, were not associated with D-dimer levels. Conclusion: The results of this meta-analysis indicate that plasma D-dimer levels can be used as an important reference for the early identification and staging of breast cancer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We undertook a systematic review of the diagnostic accuracy of artificial intelligence-based software for identification of radiologic abnormalities (computer-aided detection, or CAD) compatible with pulmonary tuberculosis on chest x-rays (CXRs). We searched four databases for articles published between January 2005-February 2019. We summarized data on CAD type, study design, and diagnostic accuracy. We assessed risk of bias with QUADAS-2. We included 53 of the 4712 articles reviewed: 40 focused on CAD design methods (“Development” studies) and 13 focused on evaluation of CAD (“Clinical” studies). Meta-analyses were not performed due to methodological differences. Development studies were more likely to use CXR databases with greater potential for bias as compared to Clinical studies. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (median AUC [IQR]) were significantly higher: in Development studies AUC: 0.88 [0.82–0.90]) versus Clinical studies (0.75 [0.66–0.87]; p-value 0.004); and with deep-learning (0.91 [0.88–0.99]) versus machine-learning (0.82 [0.75–0.89]; p = 0.001). We conclude that CAD programs are promising, but the majority of work thus far has been on development rather than clinical evaluation. We provide concrete suggestions on what study design elements should be improved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bosten Lake is an important region of Northwest China that has transformed from a freshwater lake to a saltwater lake since the 1970s. The water quality in the Bosten Lake basin is important for social and economic development, and nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) are the key indicators of water quality. The land use data, precipitation data and Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data with the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model were used to simulate the N and P exports of the Bosten Lake basin. The spatial and temporal dynamics of nitrogen and phosphorus exports, and the response of nitrogen and phosphorus exports to land use change and precipitation change were analyzed between 2000 and 2015. The results show that the amount of N and P exports increased during 2000–2015, and the N and P exports are mainly distributed around Bosten Lake. The N and P exports are greatly affected by cultivated land, built-up areas and grassland, while they are less affected by other land use types. The high precipitation areas with small exports of N and P are mainly distributed in mountain areas, while small precipitation areas with large exports of N and P are distributed in plains where the cultivated land and built-up areas are concentrated. The InVEST model can be used in Northwest China, and the statistical downscaling of reanalysis precipitation data can be used in the InVEST model to improve the simulation accuracy in the data scarce regions of Northwest China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To investigate morbidity for patients after the primary surgical management of cervical cancer in low and middle-income countries (LMIC). Methods: The Pubmed, Cochrane, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Embase, LILACS and CINAHL were searched for published studies from 1st Jan 2000 to 30th June 2017 reporting outcomes of surgical management of cervical cancer in LMIC. Random-effects meta-analytical models were used to calculate pooled estimates of surgical complications including blood transfusions, ureteric, bladder, bowel, vascular and nerve injury, fistulae and thromboembolic events. Secondary outcomes included five-year progression free (PFS) and overall survival (OS). Findings: Data were available for 46 studies, including 10,847 patients from 11 middle income countries. Pooled estimates were: blood transfusion 29% (95%CI 0.19–0.41, P = 0.00, I2 = 97.81), nerve injury 1% (95%CI 0.00–0.03, I2 77.80, P = 0.00), bowel injury, 0.5% (95%CI 0.01–0.01, I2 = 0.00, P = 0.77), bladder injury 1% (95%CI 0.01–0.02, P = 0.10, I2 = 32.2), ureteric injury 1% (95%CI 0.01–0.01, I2 0.00, P = 0.64), vascular injury 2% (95% CI 0.01–0.03, I2 60.22, P = 0.00), fistula 2% (95%CI 0.01–0.03, I2 = 77.32, P = 0.00,), pulmonary embolism 0.4% (95%CI 0.00–0.01, I2 26.69, P = 0.25), and infection 8% (95%CI 0.04–0.12, I2 95.72, P = 0.00). 5-year PFS was 83% for laparotomy, 84% for laparoscopy and OS was 85% for laparotomy cases and 80% for laparoscopy. Conclusion: This is the first systematic review and meta-analysis of surgical morbidity in cervical cancer in LMIC, which highlights the limitations of the current data and provides a benchmark for future health services research and policy implementation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Many studies focused on reasons behind the increasing incidence and the spread of human brucellosis in mainland China, yet most of them lacked comprehensive consideration with quantitative evidence. Hence, this study aimed to further investigate the epidemic mechanism and associated factors of human brucellosis so as to provide thoughts for future countermeasures in China and the rest of the world. Methods: Data of human brucellosis incidence and some associated factors in economy, animal husbandry, transportation as well as health and hygiene were collected at provincial level from 2005–2016. Time series plots were first used to visualize the annual incidence and annual rate of change of human brucellosis for each province, then cluster analysis categorized all the 31 provinces of mainland China based on their incidence time series during the study period. In addition, according to the characteristics of data, the dynamic panel data model in combination with supervised principal component analysis was proposed to explore effects of associated factors on human brucellosis. Results: 1. The incidence rate of human brucellosis in mainland China increased three-fold from 1.41 per 100,000 people in 2005 to 4.22 per 100,000 people in 2014, though it went down a little in 2015 and 2016. Incidence rates in the north have always been higher than those in the south, but the latter also experienced an upward trend especially between 2012 and 2016. 2. The 31 provinces of mainland China were categorized into three clusters, and each cluster had its own characteristics of incidence time series. 3. The impact of health and hygiene situations on the prevention and control work of human brucellosis was still very limited and trivial (regression coefficient = -0.02). Therefore, it was plausible to presume that improving the personal average number of medical institutes and the proportion of rural medical expenditure might be helpful in preventing and controlling human brucellosis. Conclusions: The epidemic status of human brucellosis has changed in both spatial and temporal dimensions in recent years in mainland China. Apart from traditional control measures, more attention should be paid to the improvement of medical healthcare especially in rural areas in the hope of enhancing the control effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As part of the cultural landscape, administrative toponyms do not only reflect natural and sociocultural phenomena, but also help with related management and naming work. Historically, county-level administrative districts have been stable and basic administrative regions in China, playing a role in the country’s management. We explore the spatio-temporal evolutionary characteristics of the county-level administrative toponyms cultural landscape in China’s eastern plains areas. A Geographical Information System (GIS) analysis, Geo-Informatic Tupu, Kernel Density Estimation, and correlation coefficients were conducted. We constructed a GIS database of county-level administrative toponyms from the Sui dynasty onward using the Northeast China, North China, and Yangtze Plains as examples. We then summarized the spatio-temporal evolutionary characteristics of the county-level administrative toponyms cultural landscape in China’s eastern plains areas. The results indicate that (1) the number of toponyms has roughly increased over time; (2) toponym densities on the three plains are higher than the national average in the corresponding timeframe since the Sui; and (3) county-level administrative toponyms related to mountains and hydrological features accounted for more than 30% of the total in 2010. However, the percentage of county-level administrative toponyms related to natural factors on the three plains has decreased since the Sui. To explore the factors influencing this spatio-temporal evolution, we analyzed the correlations between the toponyms and natural factors and human/social factors. The correlation degree between toponym density and population density is the highest, and that between toponym density and Digital Elevation Model (DEM) the lowest. Temperature changes were important in toponym changes, and population changes have influenced toponym changes over the last 400 years in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lane change violations are a major cause of traffic conflicts and accidents at urban intersections and one of many road-safety issues in China. This study aims to explore the socio-psychological factors underlying drivers’ motivation for lane change violation behavior at urban intersections and examines how these factors predict this violation behavior. A self-reported questionnaire is designed by applying the construct of the theory of planned behavior (TPB) to collect data. Five hundred-six valid responses are received from the questionnaire survey conducted on the Internet in China. The data are then analyzed using structural equation modeling (SEM). The results of the analysis show that behavioral intention is the strongest predictor of self-reported lane change violation behavior at urban intersections. Perceived behavioral control has both direct and indirect effects on self-reported lane change violation behavior. Furthermore, attitude, subjective norms and perceived behavioral control are found to have significant correlations with drivers’ intention of lane change violations at urban intersections. The results of this study could provide a reference for designing more effective interventions to modify drivers’ lane change violation behavior at urban intersections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Air pollution is well-known as a major risk to public health, causing various diseases including pulmonary and cardiovascular diseases. As social concern increases, the amount of air pollution data is increasing rapidly. The purpose of this study is to statistically characterize dependence between major cities in China based on a measure of directional dependence estimated from PM2.5 measurements. As a measure of the directional dependence, we propose the so-called copula directional dependence (CDD) using beta regression models. An advantage of the CDD is that it does not rely on strict assumptions of specific probability distributions or linearity. We used hourly PM2.5 measurement data collected at four major cities in China: Beijing, Chengdu, Guangzhou, and Shanghai, from 2013 to 2017. After accounting for autocorrelation in the PM2.5 time series via nonlinear autoregressive models, CDDs between the four cities were estimated to produce directed network structures of statistical dependence. In addition, a statistical method was proposed to test the directionality of dependence between each pair of cities. From the PM2.5 data, we could discover that Chengdu and Guangzhou are the most closely related cities and that the directionality between them has changed once during 2013 to 2017, which implies a major economic or environmental change in these Chinese regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The development of CAAC began in the early days of 1949. From a comparatively less popular means of transport to the world's second largest by volume, this means of transport has undergone major and minor changes in the last 70 years. It is not known whether there are significant laws in the process of development. For this reason, we analyze the statistical indicators of the development of civil aviation transport and select representative indicators, namely, the total turnover of transport, the number of routes, the number of aircraft, the number of transport aircraft, and the number of domestic city connections. At the same time, the life cycle theory is introduced, and the typical growth curve model is used to fit the data. It is found that the evolution life cycle of civil aviation in China can be divided into three stages: the first life cycle stage from 1950 to 1981, the second from 1982 to 2003, and the third from 2004 to 2017. Each life cycle follows the growth characteristics of occurrence, growth and maturity, and each life cycle has a time range of approximately 30 years. At present, China's civil aviation industry is in the period of rapid growth in the third life cycle. This industry is expected to reach maturity in approximately 2026 and then to begin to grow slowly. Relevant departments can adopt corresponding development strategies to guide the smooth development of civil aviation in accordance with the growth law of the development and evolution life cycle of civil aviation in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) is the deadliest infectious disease globally. Current case finding approaches may miss many people with TB or detect them too late. Data and methods: This study was a retrospective, spatial analysis of routine TB surveillance and cadastral data in Go Vap district, Ho Chi Minh City. We geocoded TB notifications from 2011 to 2015 and calculated theoretical yields of simulated door-to-door screening in three concentric catchment areas (50m, 100m, 200m) and three notification window scenarios (one, two and four quarters) for each index case. We calculated average yields, compared them to published reference values and fit a GEE (Generalized Estimating Equation) linear regression model onto the data. Results: The sample included 3,046 TB patients. Adjusted theoretical yields in 50m, 100m and 200m catchment areas were 0.32% (95%CI: 0.27,0.37), 0.21% (95%CI: 0.14,0.29) and 0.17% (95%CI: 0.09,0.25), respectively, in the baseline notification window scenario. Theoretical yields in the 50m-catchment area for all notification window scenarios were significantly higher than a reference yield from literature. Yield was positively associated with treatment failure index cases (beta = 0.12, p = 0.001) and short-term inter-province migrants (beta = 0.06, p = 0.022), while greater distance to the DTU (beta = -0.02, p<0.001) was associated with lower yield. Conclusions: This study is an example of inter-departmental collaboration and application of repurposed cadastral data to progress towards the end TB objectives. The results from Go Vap showed that the use of spatial analysis may be able to identify areas where targeted active case finding in Vietnam can help improve TB case detection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The energy-growth nexus has important policy implications for economic development. The results from many past studies that investigated the causality direction of this nexus can lead to misleading policy guidance. Using data on China from 1953 to 2013, this study shows that an application of causality test on the time series of energy consumption and national output has masked a lot of information. The Toda-Yamamoto test with bootstrapped critical values and the newly proposed non-linear causality test reveal no causal relationship. However, a further application of these tests using series in different time-frequency domain obtained from wavelet decomposition indicates that while energy consumption Granger causes economic growth in the short run, the reverse is true in the medium term. A bidirectional causal relationship is found for the long run. This approach has proven to be superior in unveiling information on the energy-growth nexus that are useful for policy planning over different time horizons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Development of easily defoliating sugarcane varieties is urgently needed to facilitate efficient mechanical harvesting, reduce production costs, and increase sugar yield in China. In order to quantify the defoliation characteristics of sugarcane, we investigated eight traits in two field experiments with a range of sugarcane varieties at maturity. The length (LSR) and angle (ASR) of the sheath ruptured from the stalk, defoliation force (DF), and self-defoliation (SD) were the traits with the greatest contribution to the quantitative assessment of sugarcane defoliation based on a principal component analysis, which accounted for more than 75% of the cumulative variability. A small set of traits, namely SD, ASR, and DF measured at the 10th leaf were selected as predictors. Using these predictors, 37 out of 38 sugarcane cultivars were correctly classified into three groups (easy, difficult and intermediate in terms of ease of defoliation) that had been clustered based on six traits. These simplified measurements will be applied to screen new lines in the sugarcane breeding program in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Postpartum Family Visits (PFVs) have been advocated as a way to improve health outcomes for puerperal women and their newborns. This study aimed to identify individual factors associated with the utilization of PFVs in rural Jiangsu Province, China. Methods: We employed responses of the household survey in Jiangsu province, part of the National Health Service Survey (NHSS), a nationally representative survey in China. The data analysis framework was designed based on Andersen’s behavioral model. The outcome variables included nonuse and deficient use of PFVs, and the explanatory variables were organized into three hierarchical levels: predisposing, enabling and need factors. Univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis were conducted to examine the impact of the three hierarchical levels on PFVs utilization. Results: A total of 884 rural women who had a childbearing history in the prior five years answered PFVs questions. About 23.4% of them had never received any PFVs, and 40.4% received <3 visits. In the results of multivariate logistic regression, educational level (OR = 0.43, 95% CI: 0.24–0.77), income (OR = 0.62, 95% CI: 0.43–0.88), the distance from the nearest hospital (OR = 1.49, 95% CI: 1.07–2.07) and parity (OR = 2.17, 95% CI: 1.54–3.05) had significant relationship with nonuse. Factors significantly associated with deficient use of PFVs included employment (OR = 0.62, 95% CI: 0.39–0.98), the distance from the nearest hospital (OR = 1.73, 95% CI: 1.26–2.36), level of delivery institution (OR = 1.57, 95% CI: 1.14–2.17), and parity (OR = 1.45, 95% CI: 1.03–2.05). Conclusion: The study found lower Social Economic Status (SES), long distance with primary health institutions, and the increased need for services stemming from multi-parity reduced the likelihood of nonuse or deficient use of PFVs in rural areas. Multiparous, low SES women and those living far away from primary health institutions should be paid more attention to assure the coverage of postpartum care. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Bacterial canker of kiwifruit caused by Pseudomonas syringae pv. actinidiae (Psa) is a major threat to the kiwifruit industry throughout the world and accounts for substantial economic losses in China. The aim of the present study was to test and explore the possibility of using MaxEnt (maximum entropy models) to predict and analyze the future large-scale distribution of Psa in China. Method: Based on the current environmental factors, three future climate scenarios, which were suggested by the fifth IPCC report, and the current distribution sites of Psa, MaxEnt combined with ArcGIS was applied to predict the potential suitable areas and the changing trend of Psa in China. The jackknife test and correlation analysis were used to choose dominant climatic factors. The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) drawn by MaxEnt was used to evaluate the accuracy of the simulation. Result: The results showed that under current climatic conditions, the area from latitude 25° to 36°N and from longitude 101° to 122°E is the primary potential suitable area of Psa in China. The highly suitable area (with suitability between 66 and 100) was mainly concentrated in Northeast Sichuan, South Shaanxi, most of Chongqing, West Hubei and Southwest Gansu and occupied 4.94% of land in China. Under different future emission scenarios, both the areas and the centers of the suitable areas all showed differences compared with the current situation. Four climatic variables, i.e., maximum April temperature (19%), mean temperature of the coldest quarter (14%), precipitation in May (11.5%) and minimum temperature in October (10.8%), had the largest impact on the distribution of Psa. Conclusion: The MaxEnt model is potentially useful for forecasting the future adaptive distribution of Psa under climate change, and it provides important guidance for comprehensive management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Offering free glasses can be important to increase children’s wear. We sought to assess whether “Upgrade glasses” could avoid reduced glasses sales when offering free glasses to children in China. Methods: In this cluster-randomized, controlled trial, children with uncorrected visual acuity (VA)< = 6/12 in either eye correctable to >6/12 in both eyes at 138 randomly-selected primary schools in 9 counties in Guangdong and Yunnan provinces, China, were randomized by school to one of four groups: glasses prescription only (Control); Free Glasses; Free Glasses + offer of $15 Upgrade Glasses; Free Glasses + offer of $30 Upgrade Glasses. Spectacle purchase (main outcome) was assessed 6 months after randomization. Results: Among 10,234 children screened, 882 (8.62%, mean age 10.6 years, 45.5% boys) were eligible and randomized: 257 (29.1%) at 37 schools to Control; 253 (28.7%) at 32 schools to Free Glasses; 187 (21.2%) at 31 schools to Free Glasses + $15 Upgrade; and 185 (21.0%) at 27 schools to Free Glasses +$30 Upgrade. Baseline ownership among these children needing glasses was 11.8% (104/882), and 867 (98.3%) children completed follow-up. Glasses purchase was significantly less likely when free glasses were given: Control: 59/250 = 23.6%; Free glasses: 32/252 = 12.7%, P = 0.010. Offering Upgrade Glasses eliminated this difference: Free + $15 Upgrade: 39/183 = 21.3%, multiple regression relative risk (RR) 0.90 (0.56–1.43), P = 0.65; Free + $30 Upgrade: 38/182 = 20.9%, RR 0.91 (0.59, 1.42), P = 0.69. Conclusions: Upgrade glasses can prevent reductions in glasses purchase when free spectacles are provided, providing important program income. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: . Registered on 31 August 2014. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Intimate partner violence (IPV) is the most common form of violence against women worldwide. IPV during pregnancy is an important risk factor for adverse health outcomes for women and their offspring. However, the prevalence of IPV during pregnancy is not well understood in China. The objective of this study was to estimate the pooled prevalence of IPV during pregnancy in China using a systematic review and meta-analysis. Methods: Systematic literature searches were conducted in PubMed, Web of Science, CNKI, Wanfang, Weipu and CBM databases to identify relevant articles published from the inception of each database to January 31, 2016 that reported data on the prevalence of IPV during pregnancy in China. The Risk of Bias Tool for prevalence studies was used to assess the risk of bias in individual studies. Owing to significant between-study heterogeneity, a random-effects model was used to calculate the pooled prevalence and corresponding 95% confidence interval, and then univariate meta-regression analyses were performed to investigate the sources of heterogeneity. Subgroup analysis was conducted to explore the risk factors associated with IPV during pregnancy. Results: Thirteen studies with a total of 30,665 individuals were included in this study. The overall pooled prevalence of IPV during pregnancy was 7.7% (95% CI: 5.6–10.1%) with significant heterogeneity (I2 = 97.8%, p < 0.001). The results of the univariate meta-regression analyses showed that only the variable “sample source” explained part of the heterogeneity in this study (p < 0.05). The characteristics “number of children” and “unplanned pregnancy” were determined as risk factors for experiencing violence during pregnancy. Conclusions: The prevalence of IPV during pregnancy in China is considerable and one of the highest reported in Asia, which suggests that issues of violence against women during pregnancy should be included in efforts to improve the health of pregnant women and their offspring. In addition, a nationwide epidemiological study is needed to confirm the prevalence estimates and identify more risk factors for IPV during pregnancy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: The School-based Education Program to Reduce Salt Intake in Children and Their Families study was a cluster randomized control trial among grade five students in 28 primary schools and their families in Changzhi, China. It achieved a significant effect in lowering systolic blood pressure (SBP) in all family adults by 2.3 mmHg and in elderlies (aged > = 60 years) by 9.5 mmHg. The aim of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of this salt reduction program. Methods: Costs of the intervention were assessed using an ingredients approach to identify resource use. A trial-based incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was estimated based on the observed effectiveness in lowering SBP. A Markov model was used to estimate the long-term cost-effectiveness of the intervention, and then based on population data, extrapolated to a scenario where the program is scaled up nationwide. Findings were presented in terms of an incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY). The perspective was that of the health sector. Results: The intervention cost Int$19.04 per family and yielded an ICER of Int$2.74 (90% CI: 1.17–12.30) per mmHg reduction of SBP in all participants (combining children and adult participants together) compared with control group. If scaled up nationwide for 10 years and assumed deterioration in treatment effect of 50% over this period, it would reach 165 million families and estimated to avert 42,720 acute myocardial infarction deaths and 107,512 stroke deaths in China. This would represent a gain of 635,816 QALYs over 10-year time frame, translating into Int$1,358 per QALY gained. Conclusion: Based on WHO-CHOICE criteria, our analysis demonstrated that the proposed salt reduction strategy is highly cost-effective, and if scaled up nationwide, the benefits could be substantial. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a huge threat to the public health, China’s air pollution has attracted extensive attention and continues to grow in tandem with the economy. Although the real-time air quality report can be utilized to update our knowledge on air quality, questions about how pollutants evolve across time and how pollutants are spatially correlated still remain a puzzle. In view of this point, we adopt the PMFG network method to analyze the six pollutants’ hourly data in 350 Chinese cities in an attempt to find out how these pollutants are correlated temporally and spatially. In terms of time dimension, the results indicate that, except for O3, the pollutants have a common feature of the strong intraday patterns of which the daily variations are composed of two contraction periods and two expansion periods. Besides, all the time series of the six pollutants possess strong long-term correlations, and this temporal memory effect helps to explain why smoggy days are always followed by one after another. In terms of space dimension, the correlation structure shows that O3 is characterized by the highest spatial connections. The PMFGs reveal the relationship between this spatial correlation and provincial administrative divisions by filtering the hierarchical structure in the correlation matrix and refining the cliques as the tinny spatial clusters. Finally, we check the stability of the correlation structure and conclude that, except for PM10 and O3, the other pollutants have an overall stable correlation, and all pollutants have a slight trend to become more divergent in space. These results not only enhance our understanding of the air pollutants’ evolutionary process, but also shed lights on the application of complex network methods into geographic issues. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Social networks play an important role in our daily lives. However, social ties are rather elusive to quantify, especially for large groups of subjects over prolonged periods of time. In this work, we first propose a methodology for extracting social ties from long spatio-temporal data streams, where the subjects are 17,795 undergraduates from a university of China and the data streams are the 9,147,106 time-stamped RFID check-in records left behind by them during one academic year. By several metrics mentioned below, we then analyze the structure of the social network. Our results center around three main observations. First, we characterize the global structure of the network, and we confirm the small-world phenomenon on a global scale. Second, we find that the network shows clear community structure. And we observe that younger students at lower levels tend to form large communities, while students at higher levels mostly form smaller communities. Third, we characterize the assortativity patterns by studying the basic demographic and network properties of users. We observe clear degree assortativity on a global scale. Furthermore, we find a strong effect of grade and school on tie formation preference, but we do not find any strong region homophily. Our research may help us to elucidate the structural characteristics and the preference of the formation of social ties in college students’ social network. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Pterygium is a common chronic ophthalmic condition, which may result in significant visual morbidity or lead to blindness in extreme cases. The prevalence of pterygium in China has not been reported at the sub-national level. Methods: In this study, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to estimate the prevalence of pterygium in China. China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI), Wanfang, Chinese Biomedicine Literature Database (CBM-SinoMed), PubMed, Embase and Medline were searched before September 2016. We performed a multilevel mixed-effect meta-regression based on the included studies, our results showed that age, gender and latitude were significantly associated with pterygium prevalence. Based on the final model, the age and gender-specific prevalence of pterygium in 31 Chinese provinces (except Hongkong, Macau and Taiwan) and the whole country was generated. Results: In 2010, the overall prevalence of pterygium in Chinese people aged 15–84 years was 9.84% (95% CI: 6.72–14.14), and the number of pterygium cases in China was 108.65 million (95% CI: 74.23–156.13). Conclusions: In conclusion, the prevalence of pterygium in Chinese population in 2010 was estimated at both the national and provincial levels. The higher burden of pterygium across the country calls for efforts to advocate public health education encouraging people to take appropriate protective measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Currently, Haze is one of the greatest environmental problems with serious impacts on human health in China, especially in capital region (Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region). To alleviate this problem, the Chinese government introduced a National Air Pollution Control Action Plan (NAPCAP) with air pollutants reduction targets by 2017. However, there is doubt whether these targets can be achieved once the plan is implemented. In this work, the effectiveness of NAPCAP is analyzed by developing models of the statistical relationship between PM2.5 concentrations and air pollutant emissions (SO2, NOx, smoke and dust), while taking into account wind and neighboring transfer impacts. The model can also identify ways of calculating the intended emission levels in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei area. The results indicate that haze concentration control targets will not be attained by following the NAPCAP, and that the amount of progress needed to meet the targets is unrealistic. A more appropriate approach to reducing air emissions is proposed, which addresses joint regional efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This is the first meta-analysis of the pooled prevalence of insomnia in the general population of China. A systematic literature search was conducted via the following databases: PubMed, PsycINFO, EMBASE and Chinese databases (China National Knowledge Interne (CNKI), WanFang Data and SinoMed). Statistical analyses were performed using the Comprehensive Meta-Analysis program. A total of 17 studies with 115,988 participants met the inclusion criteria for the analysis. The pooled prevalence of insomnia in China was 15.0% (95% Confidence interval [CI]: 12.1%-18.5%). No significant difference was found in the prevalence between genders or across time period. The pooled prevalence of insomnia in population with a mean age of 43.7 years and older (11.6%; 95% CI: 7.5%-17.6%) was significantly lower than in those with a mean age younger than 43.7 years (20.4%; 95% CI: 14.2%-28.2%). The prevalence of insomnia was significantly affected by the type of assessment tools (Q = 14.1, P = 0.001). The general population prevalence of insomnia in China is lower than those reported in Western countries but similar to those in Asian countries. Younger Chinese adults appear to suffer from more insomnia than older adults. Trial Registration: CRD [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The research on the grid size suitability is important to provide improvement in accuracies of gridded population distribution. It contributes to reveal the actual spatial distribution of population. However, currently little research has been done in this area. Many well-modeled gridded population dataset are basically built at a single grid scale. If the grid cell size is not appropriate, it will result in spatial information loss or data redundancy. Therefore, in order to capture the desired spatial variation of population within the area of interest, it is necessary to conduct research on grid size suitability. This study summarized three expressed levels to analyze grid size suitability, which include location expressed level, numeric information expressed level, and spatial relationship expressed level. This study elaborated the reasons for choosing the five indexes to explore expression suitability. These five indexes are consistency measure, shape index rate, standard deviation of population density, patches diversity index, and the average local variance. The suitable grid size was determined by constructing grid size-indicator value curves and suitable grid size scheme. Results revealed that the three expressed levels on 10m grid scale are satisfying. And the population distribution raster data with 10m grid size provide excellent accuracy without loss. The 10m grid size is recommended as the appropriate scale for generating a high-quality gridded population distribution in our study area. Based on this preliminary study, it indicates the five indexes are coordinated with each other and reasonable and effective to assess grid size suitability. We also suggest choosing these five indexes in three perspectives of expressed level to carry out the research on grid size suitability of gridded population distribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Exact prediction of Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) epidemics must improve to establish effective preventive measures in China. A Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model was applied to establish a highly predictive model of HFRS. Meteorological factors were considered external variables through a cross correlation analysis. Then, these factors were included in the SARIMA model to determine if they could improve the predictive ability of HFRS epidemics in the region. The optimal univariate SARIMA model was identified as (0,0,2)(1,1,1)12. The R2 of the prediction of HFRS cases from January 2014 to December 2014 was 0.857, and the Root mean square error (RMSE) was 2.708. However, the inclusion of meteorological variables as external regressors did not significantly improve the SARIMA model. This result is likely because seasonal variations in meteorological variables were included in the seasonal characteristics of the HFRS itself. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Hepatitis E virus is one of new threats to blood safety which was usually considered to be transmitted via fecal-oral route. China is one of the hyperendemic regions where frequent outbreaks of hepatitis E are noted. However, the overall prevalence of HEV infection among mainland Chinese blood donors is not clear until now. Method: The peer-reviewed literatures reporting the prevalence of HEV in Chinese blood donors were identified by systematic searching of five electronic databases. The systematic review and meta-analysis were conducted in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses statement issued in 2009. Data manipulation and statistical analyses were performed by Stata 12.0. Results: Fourteen eligible articles involving 22 independent studies were included. Pooled prevalence of HEV infection biomarkers (anti-HEV IgG, anti-HEV IgM, RNA and antigen) among mainland Chinese blood donors were 29.2%, 1.1%, 0.1% and 0.1%, respectively which were higher than the data reported in other countries. The analysis of HEV genotypes indicated that the most prevalent strains in Chinese blood donors were genotype 1 and 4. Conclusions: Mainland China is indicated with a relatively higher risk of transmission of hepatitis E through transfusion and the screening of blood donors for HEV RNA, especially in HEV-endemic areas, might reduce the potential risk of HEV infection via transfusion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: Road traffic crashes that involve very high numbers of fatalities and injuries arouse public concern wherever they occur. In China, there are two categories of such crashes: a crash that results in 10–30 fatalities, 50–100 serious injuries or a total cost of 50–100 million RMB ($US8-16m) is a “serious road traffic crash” (SRTC), while a crash that is even more severe or costly is a “particularly serious road traffic crash” (PSRTC). The aim of this study is to identify the main factors affecting different types of these crashes (single-vehicle, head-on, rear-end and side impact) with the ultimate goal of informing prevention activities and policies. Methods: Detailed descriptions of the SRTCs and PSRTCs that occurred from 2007 to 2014 were collected from the database “In-depth Investigation and Analysis System for Major Road Traffic Crashes” (IIASMRTC), which is maintained by the Traffic Management Research Institute of the Ministry of Public Security of China (TMRI). 18 main risk factors, which were categorized into four areas (participant, vehicle, road and environment-related) were chosen as potential independent variables for the multinomial logistic regression analysis. Comparisons were made among the single-vehicle, head-on, rear-end and side impact crashes in terms of factors affecting crash occurrence. Findings: Five risk factors were significant for the six multinomial logistic regression models, which were location, vertical alignment, roadside safety rating, driver distraction and overloading of cargo. It was indicated that intersections were more likely to have side impact SRTCs and PSRTCs, especially with poor visibility at night. Overloaded freight vehicles were more likely to be involved in a rear-end crash than other freight vehicles. Driver distraction is an important risk factor for head-on crashes, while vertical alignment and roadside safety rating are positively associated with single-vehicle crashes. Conclusion: Based on the findings, promising measures were proposed to prevent each type of SRTC and PSRTC, which governmental or regulatory agencies could employ to plan strategies to reduce SRTCs and PSRTCs and support lifesaving policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study used the dynamic conditional correlations (DCC) method to identify the linkage effects of Chinese stock market, and further detected the influence of network linkage effects on magnitude of security returns across different industries. Applying two physics-derived techniques, the minimum spanning tree and the hierarchical tree, we analyzed the stock interdependence within the network of the China Securities Index (CSI) industry index basket. We observed that that obvious linkage effects existed among stock networks. CII and CCE, CAG and ITH as well as COU, CHA and REI were confirmed as the core nodes in the three different networks respectively. We also investigated the stability of linkage effects by estimating the mean correlations and mean distances, as well as the normalized tree length of these indices. In addition, using the GMM model approach, we found inter-node influence within the stock network had a pronounced effect on stock returns. Our results generally suggested that there appeared to be greater clustering effect among the indexes belonging to related industrial sectors than those of diverse sectors, and network comovement was significantly affected by impactive financial events in the reality. Besides, stocks that were more central within the network of stock market usually had higher returns for compensation because they endured greater exposure to correlation risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Hepatitis is a serious public health problem with increasing cases and property damage in Heng County. It is necessary to develop a model to predict the hepatitis epidemic that could be useful for preventing this disease. Methods: The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and the generalized regression neural network (GRNN) model were used to fit the incidence data from the Heng County CDC (Center for Disease Control and Prevention) from January 2005 to December 2012. Then, the ARIMA-GRNN hybrid model was developed. The incidence data from January 2013 to December 2013 were used to validate the models. Several parameters, including mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and mean square error (MSE), were used to compare the performance among the three models. Results: The morbidity of hepatitis from Jan 2005 to Dec 2012 has seasonal variation and slightly rising trend. The ARIMA(0,1,2)(1,1,1)12 model was the most appropriate one with the residual test showing a white noise sequence. The smoothing factor of the basic GRNN model and the combined model was 1.8 and 0.07, respectively. The four parameters of the hybrid model were lower than those of the two single models in the validation. The parameters values of the GRNN model were the lowest in the fitting of the three models. Conclusions: The hybrid ARIMA-GRNN model showed better hepatitis incidence forecasting in Heng County than the single ARIMA model and the basic GRNN model. It is a potential decision-supportive tool for controlling hepatitis in Heng County. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this study was to construct and validate a “Perceived Physical Literacy Instrument” (PPLI) for physical education teachers. Based on literature review and focus group interviews, an 18-item instrument was developed for the initial tests. This self-report measure, using a 5-point Likert scale, formed the PPLI and was administered to 336 physical education teachers in Hong Kong. The sample was randomly split, and exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses resulted in a 9-item, 3-factor scale. Exploratory factor analysis (EFA) item loadings ranged from 0.69 to 0.87, and Cronbach’s alpha ranged from 0.73 to 0.76. Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) showed that the construct demonstrated good fit to the model. The PPLI thus appeared to be reliable and valid to measure the perceived physical literacy of physical education teachers. It is argued that the instrument can be used for both research and applied purposes and potential uses for the instrument in physical education, medical and health settings are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Team-based learning (TBL) is an increasingly popular teaching method in medical education. However, TBL hasn’t been well-studied in the ophthalmology clerkship context. This study was to examine the impact of modified TBL in such context and to assess the student evaluations of TBL. Methods: Ninety-nine students of an 8-year clinical medicine program from Zhongshan Ophthalmic Centre, Sun Yat-sen University, were randomly divided into four sequential units and assigned to six teams with the same faculty. The one-week ophthalmology clerkship module included traditional lectures, gross anatomy and a TBL module. The effects of the TBL module on student performance were measured by the Individual Readiness Assurance Test (IRAT), the Group Readiness Assurance Test (GRAT), the Group Application Problem (GAP) and final examination scores (FESs). Students’ evaluations of TBL were measured by a 16-item questionnaire. IRAT and GRAT scores were compared using a paired t-test. One-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) and subgroup analysis compared the effects among quartiles that were stratified by the Basic Ophthalmology Levels (BOLs). The BOLs were evaluated before the ophthalmology clerkship. Results: In TBL classes, the GRAT scores were significantly higher than the IRAT scores in both the full example and the BOL-stratified groups. It highlighted the advantages of TBL compared to the individual learning. Quartile-stratified ANOVA comparisons showed significant differences at FES scores (P < 0.01). In terms to IRAT, GRAT and GAP scores, there was no significant result. Moreover, IRAT scores only significantly differed between the first and fourth groups. The FES scores of the first three groups are significantly higher than the fourth group. Gender-specific differences were significant in FES but not the IRAT. Overall, 57.65% of student respondents agreed that TBL was helpful. Male students tended to rate TBL higher than female students. Conclusion: The application of modified TBL to the ophthalmology clerkship curriculum improved students’ performance and increased students’ engagement and satisfaction. TBL should be further optimized and developed to enhance the educational outcomes among multi-BOLs medical students. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Our objective is to compare the cost-utility of icotinib and gefitinib for the second-line treatment of advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) from the perspective of the Chinese healthcare system. Methods: Model technology was applied to assess the data of randomized clinical trials and the direct medical costs from the perspective of the Chinese healthcare system. Five-year quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and incremental cost-utility ratios (ICURs) were calculated. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSA) were performed. Results: Our model suggested that the median progression-free survival (PFS) was 4.2 months in the icotinib group and 3.5 months in the gefitinib group while they were 4.6 months and 3.4 months, respectively, in the trials. The 5-year QALYs was 0.279 in the icotinib group and 0.269 in the gefitinib group, and the according medical costs were $10662.82 and $13127.57. The ICUR/QALY of icotinib versus gefitinib presented negative in this study. The most sensitive parameter to the ICUR was utility of PFS, ranging from $-1,259,991.25 to $-182,296.61; accordingly the icotinib treatment consistently represented a dominant cost-utility strategy. Conclusions: The icotinib strategy, as a second-line therapy for advanced NSCLC patients in China, is the preferred strategy relative to gefitinib because of the dominant cost-utility. In addition, icotinib shows a good curative effect and safety, resulting in a strong demand for the Chinese market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Shale has been considered as good gas reservoir due to its abundant interior nanoscale pores. Thus, the study of the pore structure of shale is of great significance for the evaluation and development of shale oil and gas. To date, the most widely used approaches for studying the shale pore structure include image analysis, radiation and fluid invasion methods. The detailed pore structures can be studied intuitively by image analysis and radiation methods, but the results obtained are quite sensitive to sample preparation, equipment performance and experimental operation. In contrast, the fluid invasion method can be used to obtain information on pore size distribution and pore structure, but the relative simple parameters derived cannot be used to evaluate the pore structure of shale comprehensively and quantitatively. To characterize the nanoscale pore structure of shale reservoir more effectively and expand the current research techniques, we proposed a new method based on gas adsorption experimental data and the method of moments to describe the pore structure parameters of shale reservoir. Combined with the geological mixture empirical distribution and the method of moments estimation principle, the new method calculates the characteristic parameters of shale, including the mean pore size (), standard deviation (σ), skewness (Sk) and variation coefficient (c). These values are found by reconstructing the grouping intervals of observation values and optimizing algorithms for eigenvalues. This approach assures a more effective description of the characteristics of nanoscale pore structures. Finally, the new method has been applied to analyze the Yanchang shale in the Ordos Basin (China) and Longmaxi shale from the Sichuan Basin (China). The results obtained well reveal the pore characteristics of shale, indicating the feasibility of this new method in the study of the pore structure of shale reservoir. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]