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Urbanization is one of the main drivers in the conversion of natural habitats into different land use and land cover types (LULC) which threaten the local as well as global biodiversity. This impact is particularly alarming in tropical countries like India, where ~18% of the world's population live, and its ever-growing economy (i.e., industrial development) expanded urban areas by several folds. We undertook this study to examine the impacts of urbanization (i.e., LULC) on terrestrial vertebrates (mammals, birds, reptiles, and amphibians) in the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR), Western Ghats, India. We sampled different habitats ranged from highly disturbed urban areas to less disturbed forested areas. Multiple sampling methods such as quadrat sampling, line transect, point count, and camera trapping were used to quantify the target taxa. We used multi-species occupancy modeling in the Bayesian framework to estimate detection probability and occupancy and to assess the effect of various LULC on different species. All four groups showed a significant negative impact of increasing anthropogenic habitat cover on occupancy. Out of 213 species detected in this study, 96% of mammals, 85% of birds, 93.75% of amphibians, and 69.43% of reptiles showed a negative effect of anthropogenic habitat cover. Evidence suggests that historical and recent human disturbances could have played an important role in transforming this area from semi-evergreen and moist deciduous forest to open, scrubby, dry deciduous, and fire-prone landscape. This might be the reason for the high occupancy of open and degraded forest habitat preferring species in our study area. We recommend species-rich areas in the MMR, e.g., Karnala Bird Sanctuary (KBS) and Prabalgad-Matheran-Malanggad Hill Range (PMMHR), must be conserved through habitat restoration, ecotourism, public awareness, and policymaking. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Future land use projections are needed to inform long-term planning and policy. However, most projections require downscaling into spatially explicit projection rasters for ecosystem service analyses. Empirical demand-allocation algorithms input coarse-level transition quotas and convert cells across the raster, based on a modeled probability surface. Such algorithms typically employ contagious and/or random allocation approaches. We present a hybrid seeding approach designed to generate a stochastic collection of spatial realizations for distributional analysis, by 1) randomly selecting a seed cell from a sample of n cells, then 2) converting patches of neighboring cells based on transition probability and distance to the seed. We generated a collection of realizations from 2001–2011 for the conterminous USA at 90m resolution based on varying the value of n, then computed forest area by fragmentation class and compared the results with observed 2011 forest area by fragmentation class. We found that realizations based on values of n ≤ 256 generally covered observed forest fragmentation at regional scales, for approximately 70% of assessed cases. We also demonstrate the potential of the seeding algorithm for distributional analysis by generating 20 trajectories of realizations from 2020–2070 from a single example scenario. Generating a library of such trajectories from across multiple scenarios will enable analysis of projected patterns and downstream ecosystem services, as well as their variation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Net primary production (NPP) can regulate global climate change and carbon balance. Although scholars have qualitatively studied the influencing factors of NPP, few have quantified the contribution of different degrees of drought aggravation or mitigation and major land-use changes to NPP changes. Based on the temporal and spatial characteristics of NPP for 2000–2015 in the Chinese Loess Plateau, we quantified the contribution of drought, land use and land cover change (LUCC), and hydrothermal conditions to changes in NPP. Particularly, we analyzed the contribution of major land-use change and different drought levels to NPP. Our results showed that the 15-years average NPP was approximately 227 gC/m2 and decreased from southeast to northwest. Overall, NPP showed a linear increasing trend over the 15-years period. The results suggested that changes in hydrothermal conditions had the strongest impact on NPP (~61%), followed by drought (~33%), and land use and land cover change had the weakest impact (~1.4%). In particular, ~13% of the NPP decreases was affected by light drought aggravation, ~10% of the NPP decreases was affected by moderate drought aggravation, and ~0.3% was affected by the conversion of cropland to grassland or non-NPP main production land. Moreover, ~12.7% of the NPP increase was affected by light drought alleviation, ~9.4% was affected by moderate drought alleviation, and ~1.1% was affected by the conversion of grassland to cropland or forestland. The mechanisms underlying the effect of drought and land-use change on NPP were clarified and provide an important reference value for future research on the carbon cycle and regional ecological environmental restoration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on 0.01°×0.01° grid data of PM2.5 annual concentration and statistical yearbook data for 11 cities in Hebei Province from 2000 to 2015, the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of PM2.5 in the study area are analysed, the level of intensive land use in the area is evaluated, and decoupling theory and spatial regression are used to discuss the relationship between PM2.5 concentration and intensive land use and the influence of intensive land use variables on PM2.5 in Hebei Province. The results show that 1. In terms of time, the concentration of PM2.5 in Hebei Province showed an overall upward trend from 2000 to 2015, with the highest in winter and the lowest in summer. The daily variations show double peaks at 8:00–10:00 and 21:00–0:00 and a single valley at 16:00–18:00. 2. In terms of space, the concentration of PM2.5 in Hebei Province is high in the southeast and low in the northwest, and the pollution spillover initially decreases and then increases. 3. In the past 16 years, the level of intensive land use in Hebei Province has increased annually, but blind expansion still exists. 4. Decoupling theory and the spatial lag model show that land use intensity, land input level and land use structure are positively correlated with PM2.5 concentration, land output benefit is negatively correlated with PM2.5 concentration, and PM2.5 concentration and land intensive use level have not yet been decoupled; thus, the relationship is not harmonious. This research can provide a scientific basis for reducing air pollution and promoting the development of urban land resources for intensive and sustainable development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Exotic species' introductions together with extinction of native species represent the main mechanisms driving biotic homogenization of freshwater fish assemblages around the world. While generally ichtyofaunistic realms transit towards biotic homogenization, for conservation purposes it is essential to understand what specific mechanisms are promoting it on particular areas or regions. Here, we report the occurrence of biotic homogenization in 29 Chilean watersheds, analyzing its β-diversity (including turnover and nestedness) and predicting future trends. Location: Continental Chile (18o–56o S). Methods: We determined fish composition per basin for historical and current assemblages; extant native, exotic, and extinct species were recorded as 1 (presence) or 0 (absence) in two matrices basins × species. For each matrix, we calculated the turnover (βsim), nestedness (βnes), and β-diversity (βsor); then, we obtained Δβsim, Δβnes, and Δβsor, as the arithmetical difference between basin pairs over time. In addition, we search for explanatory variables correlating Δβsim, Δβnes, and Δβsor with geographical and land use variables. Finally, simulating events of species introduction (i.e., invasion) and extinction, we generated 15 hypothetical assemblages, looking to establish future trends towards biotic change in Chilean basins. Results: Species turnover and β-diversity significantly decreased from historical to current assemblages (Δβsim = -0.084; Δβsor = -0.061, respectively), while the species nestedness did not show significant changes (Δβnes = 0.08). Biotic changes have been driven mainly by the introduction of 28 exotic species, with a minor role of extinctions (one species) and translocations (0 species) of native species. Changes in β-diversity were negatively correlated with area, elevation, and geographical distance between basins but not with land-use nor human population. Finally, the analysis of 15 future assemblages predicts a significant decrease of β-diversity and turnover, and an increase for species nestedness, this time promoted by an increase in the extinction of native species. Main conclusion: Chilean basins show a significant decrease of the distributional β-diversity and species turnover of the freshwater fish fauna, evidencing a trend towards biotic homogenization. This trend is shared with other Neotropical basins; however, specific mechanisms driving it show different magnitude. Changes in the β-diversity components do not show correlation with variables associated to land use, thus suggesting that casual introductions of freshwater fishes in Chile follow an opportunistic mode related to commercial use. According to future scenarios simulated, biotic homogenization should increase further, mainly as consequence of increased native extinctions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy infrastructures can have negative impacts on the environment. In remote and / or sparsely populated as well as in conflict-prone regions, these can be difficult to assess, in particular when they are of a large scale. Analyzing land use and land cover changes can be an important initial step towards establishing the quantity and quality of impacts. Drawing from very-high-resolution-multi-temporal-satellite-imagery, this paper reports on a study which employed the Random Forest Classifier and Land Change Modeler to derive detailed information of the spatial patterns and temporal variations of land-use and land-cover changes resulting from the China-Myanmar Oil and Gas Pipelines in Ann township in Myanmar's Rakhine State of Myanmar. Deforestation and afforestation conversion processes during pre- and post-construction periods (2010 to 2012) are compared. Whilst substantial forest areas were lost along the pipelines, this is only part of the story, as afforestation has also happened in parallel. However, afforestation areas can be of a lower value, and in order to be able to take quality of forests into account, it is of crucial importance to accompany satellite-imagery based techniques with field observation. Findings have important implications for future infrastructure development projects in conflict-affected regions in Myanmar and elsewhere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Facing a growing and more affluent world population, changing climate and finite natural resources, world food systems will have to change in the future. The aim of the Agrimonde-Terra foresight study was to build global scenarios linking land use and food security, with special attention paid to overlooked aspects such as nutrition and health, in order to help explore the possible future of the global food system. In this article, we seek to highlight how the resulting set of scenarios contributes to the debate on land use and food security and enlarges the range of possible futures for the global food system. We highlight four main contributions. Combining a scenario building method based on morphological analysis and quantitative simulations with a tractable and simple biomass balance model, the proposed approach improves transparency and coherence between scenario narratives and quantitative assessment. Agrimonde-Terra's scenarios comprise a wide range of alternative diets, with contrasting underlying nutritional and health issues, which accompany contrasting urbanization and rural transformation processes, both dimensions that are lacking in other sets of global scenarios. Agrimonde-Terra's scenarios share some similarities with existing sets of global scenarios, notably the SSPs, but are usually less optimistic regarding agricultural land expansion up to 2050. Results suggest that changing global diets toward healthier patterns could also help to limit the expansion in agricultural land area. Agrimonde-Terra's scenarios enlarge the scope of possible futures by proposing two pathways that are uncommon in other sets of global scenarios. The first proposes to explore possible reconnection of the food industry and regional production within supranational regional blocs. The second means that we should consider that a 'perfect storm', induced by climate change and an ecological crisis combined with social and economic crises, is still possible. Both scenarios should be part of the debate as the current context of the COVID-19 pandemic shows. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urban development relies on many factors to remain viable, including infrastructure, services, and government provisions and subsidies. However, in situations involving federal or state level policy, development responds not just to one regulatory signal, but also to multiple signals from overlapping and competing jurisdictions. The 1982 U.S. Coastal Barrier Resources Act (CoBRA) offers an opportunity to study when and how development restrictions and economic disincentives protect natural resources by stopping or slowing urban development in management regimes with distributed authority and responsibility. CoBRA prohibits federal financial assistance for infrastructure, post-storm disaster relief, and flood insurance in designated sections (CoBRA units) of coastal barriers. How has CoBRA's removal of these subsidies affected rates and types of urban development? Using building footprint and real estate data (n = 1,385,552 parcels), we compare density of built structures, land use types, residential house size, and land values within and outside of CoBRA units in eight Southeast and Gulf Coast states. We show that CoBRA is associated with reduced development rates in designated coastal barriers. We also demonstrate how local responses may counteract withdrawal of federal subsidies. As attention increases towards improving urban resilience in high hazard areas, this work contributes to understanding how limitations on infrastructure and insurance subsidies can affect outcomes where overlapping jurisdictions have competing goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Populations of Arnica montana, a characteristic species of nutrient poor grasslands in Central Europe, have been deteriorating over the last decades, especially in lowland regions. Population size has been declining and signs of sexual reproduction are scarce. To start a long-term regeneration program, we investigated the major habitat specific drivers for the decline in Hesse, Germany. Firstly, we conducted a field study to analyze habitat characteristics of 32 Hessian lowland sites, comparing those on which this species has become extinct during the last 15 years with sites of small and declining, as well as large, stable populations. We compared habitat traits focusing on soil parameters, nutrients, and vegetation characteristics. Secondly, we set up a greenhouse experiment to study the response of A. montana seedlings to competition and nutrient input to assess the effects of competition pressure and fertilization. The results show lower carbon-to-nitrogen ratios and higher Ellenberg nitrogen indicator values on sites with extinct populations compared to existing populations. Both pH and Ellenberg soil reaction indicator values were higher on sites with extinct populations. In the greenhouse, the combination of nitrogen addition and competition resulted in lower seedling numbers. While rosette size was not dependent on fertilization, growth was strongly enhanced in the plots lacking vegetation. Both studies suggest that soil nutrient enrichment followed by competition pressure diminishes the number of safe sites for A. montana seedling recruitment and establishment and negatively impacts the growth of existing rosettes, thus leading to the continuous decline of populations. There is an urgent need for actions to reduce unintentional nitrogen deposition in the remaining nutrient poor areas as well as to modify land use to withdraw nutrients from enriched soils in order to preserve the remaining A. montana populations and to create bare ground for the safekeeping and enhancement of self-sustainable populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most business-as-usual scenarios for farming under changing climate regimes project that the agriculture sector will be significantly impacted from increased temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns. Perhaps ironically, agricultural production contributes substantially to the problem with yearly greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of about 11% of total anthropogenic GHG emissions, not including land use change. It is partly because of this tension that Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA) has attracted interest given its promise to increase agricultural productivity under a changing climate while reducing emissions. Considerable resources have been mobilized to promote CSA globally even though the potential effects of its widespread adoption have not yet been studied. Here we show that a subset of agronomic practices that are often included under the rubric of CSA can contribute to increasing agricultural production under unfavorable climate regimes while contributing to the reduction of GHG. However, for CSA to make a significant impact important investments and coordination are required and its principles must be implemented widely across the entire sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil erosion is a global environmental threat, and Land Use Land Cover Changes (LUCC) have significant impacts on it. Nepal, being a mountainous country, has significant soil erosion issues. To examine the effects of LUCC on water erosion, we studied the LUCC in Sarada, Rapti and Thuli Bheri river basins of Nepal during the 1995–2015 period using the Remote Sensing. We calculated the average annual soil loss using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation and Geographical Information System. Our results suggest that an increase in the agricultural lands at the expense of bare lands and forests escalated the soil erosion through the years; rates being 5.35, 5.47 and 6.03 t/ha/year in 1995, 2007 and 2015, respectively. Of the different land uses, agricultural land experienced the most erosion, whereas the forests experienced the least erosion. Agricultural lands, particularly those on the steeper slopes, were severely degraded and needed urgent soil and water conservation measures. Our study confirms that the long term LUCC has considerable impacts on soil loss, and these results can be implemented in similar river basins in other parts of the country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rapid increase in anthropogenic activities, socioeconomic development, and land use land cover (LULC) changes since the opening of economic reforms (1978), have changed the ecosystem service value (ESV) in Guangdong, Hong Kong, and Macao (GKHM) region located in South China. This leads to the requirement of a significant tailored analysis of ecosystem services regarding incisive and relevant planning to ensure sustainability at regional level. This study focuses on the use of Landsat satellite imagery to quantify the precise impact of LULC changes on the ecosystem services in GHKM over the past three decades (1986–2017). The most renowned established unit value transfer method has been employed to calculate the ESV. The results show that the total ecosystem service value in GHKM has decreased from 680.23 billion CNY in 1986 to 668.45 billion CNY in 2017, mainly due to the decrease in farmland and fishponds. This overall decrease concealed the more dynamic and complex nature of the individual ESV. The most significant decrease took place in the values of water supply (-22.20 billion CNY, -14.72%), waste treatment (-20.77 billion CNY, −14.63%), and food production (-7.96 billion CNY, −33.18%). On the other hand, the value of fertile soil formation and retention (6.28 billion CNY, +7.26%) and recreation and culture (5.09 billion CNY, +12.91%) increased. Furthermore, total ESV and ESV per capita decreased significantly with the continuous increase in total gross domestic product (GDP) and GDP per capita. A substantial negative correlation exists between farmland ESV and GDP indicating human encroachment into a natural and semi natural ecosystems. The results suggest that in the rapidly urbanizing region, the protection of farmland and to control the intrusion of urban areas has marked an important societal demand and a challenge to the local government. This required a pressing need for smart LULC planning and to improve policies and regulation to guarantee ecosystem service sustainability for acceptable life quality in the study area and other fast expanding urban areas in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The expansion of forest plantations is cause for concern because of their environmental effects, and the loss of native forests and agricultural land. Our goal was to quantify the increase in pine plantation, and concomitant loss of native forests, in central Chile since ca. 1960, and to identify in which settings native forests were lost most rapidly. We analyzed aerial photographs from 1955 and 1961, Landsat images from 1975 and 1998, and Google Earth high-resolution satellite images from 2014. To ensure high classification accuracy, we visually interpreted images for a systematic 3-km grid and assigned each point as either 'pine plantation', 'native forest', 'agricultural-livestock lands', or 'other'. We also calculated latitude, longitude, slope, Euclidean distance to the nearest road and to the nearest pulp mill, and the frequency of land use surrounding each point as potential variables to explain observed land use changes. Pine plantations expansion started even before 1960, when 12% of all points were already pine plantations, was particularly rapid from 1975 (18% of sample points) to 1998 (38%), and stabilized thereafter (37% by 2014). From 1975 to 1998 alone, 40% of native forests were replaced by pine plantations, and agricultural-livestock lands declined by 0.7%, 0.9%, 1% per year before 1975, from 1975 to 1998, and after 1998 respectively. Native forests that were surrounded by pine plantations, were most likely to be converted to plantations, and from 1960 to 1975, also native forests near pulp mills. The probability of change from agricultural-livestock lands to pine plantations was mainly influenced by slope, with most agricultural-livestock lands remaining in areas with low slopes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Atlantic rainforest of Brazil is one of the global terrestrial hotspots of biodiversity. Despite having undergone large scale deforestation, forest cover has shown signs of increases in the last decades. Here, to understand the degradation and regeneration history of Atlantic rainforest remnants near São Paulo, we combine a unique dataset of very high resolution images from Worldview-2 and Worldview-3 (0.5 and 0.3m spatial resolution, respectively), georeferenced aerial photographs from 1962 and use a deep learning method called U-net to map (i) the forest cover and changes and (ii) two pioneer tree species, Cecropia hololeuca and Tibouchina pulchra. For Tibouchina pulchra, all the individuals were mapped in February, when the trees undergo mass-flowering with purple and pink blossoms. Additionally, elevation data at 30m spatial resolution from NASA Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) and annual mean climate variables (Terraclimate datasets at ∼ 4km of spatial resolution) were used to analyse the forest and species distributions. We found that natural forests are currently more frequently found on south-facing slopes, likely because of geomorphology and past land use, and that Tibouchina is restricted to the wetter part of the region (southern part), which annually receives at least 1600 mm of precipitation. Tibouchina pulchra was found to clearly indicate forest regeneration as almost all individuals were found within or adjacent to forests regrown after 1962. By contrast, Cecropia hololeuca was found to indicate older disturbed forests, with all individuals almost exclusively found in forest fragments already present in 1962. At the regional scale, using the dominance maps of both species, we show that at least 4.3% of the current region's natural forests have regrown after 1962 (Tibouchina dominated, ∼ 4757 ha) and that ∼ 9% of the old natural forests have experienced significant disturbance (Cecropia dominated). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previously, applications of intensity analysis (IA) on land use and land cover change (LULCC) studies have focused on deviations from uniform intensity (UI) and failed to quantify the reasons behind these deviations. This study presents the application of IA with hypothetical errors that could explain non-uniform LULCC in the context of IA at four-time points. LULCC in the Ashi watershed was examined using Landsat images from 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2014 showing the classes: Urban, water, agriculture, close canopy, open canopy and other vegetation. Matrices were created to statistically examine LULCC using IA. The results reveal that the seeming LULCC intensities are not uniform with respect to the interval, category and transition levels of IA. Error analysis indicates that, hypothetical errors in 13%, 19% and 11.2% of the 2000, 2010 and 2014 maps respectively could account for all differences between the observed gain intensities and the UI; while errors in 12%, 21%, and 11% of the 1990, 2000 and 2010 maps respectively could account for all differences between the observed loss intensities and the UI. A hypothetical error in 0.6% and 1.6% of the 1990 map; 1.5% and 4% of the 2000 map; 1.2% and 2.1% of the 2010 map could explain divergences from uniform transitions given URB gain and AGR gain during 1990–2000, 2000–2010 and 2010–2014 respectively. Evidence for a specific deviation from the relevant hypothesized UI is either strong or weak depending on the size of these errors. We recommend that users of IA concept consider assessing their map errors, since limited ground information on past time point data exist. These errors will indicate strength of evidence for deviations and reveals patterns that increase researcher's insight on LULCC processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since 1984, nearly 1,000 people have been killed in the Brazilian Amazon due to land conflicts stemming from unequal distribution of land, land tenure insecurity, and lawlessness. During this same period, the region experienced almost complete deforestation (< 8% forest cover by 2010). Land conflict exacts a human toll, but it also affects agents' decisions about land use, the subject of this article. Using a property-level panel dataset covering the period of redemocratization in Brazil (1984) until the privatization of long-term leases in the Eastern Amazon (2010), we show that deforestation is affected by land conflict, particularly in cases of expropriation of property for agrarian reform settlement formation and when that conflict involves fatalities. Deforestation on agrarian reform settlements is much greater when soils are poor for agriculture and when the land has been the object of past conflict. Deforestation and conflict are episodic, and both agronomic drivers and contentious drivers of land change are active in the region. Ultimately, the outcome of these processes of contentious and agronomic land change is substantial deforestation, regardless of who was in possession and control of the land. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We have developed and applied a relatively simple disaggregation scheme that uses spatial patterns of Land Surface Temperature (LST) from MODIS warm-season composites to improve the spatial characterization of daily maximum and minimum air temperatures. This down-scaling model produces qualitatively reasonable 1 km daily maximum and minimum air temperature estimates that reflect urban and coastal features. In a 5-city validation, the model was shown to provide improved daily maximum air temperature estimates in the three coastal cities, compared to 12 km NLDAS-2 (North American Land Data Assimilation System). Down-scaled maximum temperature estimates for the other two (non-coastal) cities were marginally worse than the original NLDAS-2 temperatures. For daily minimum temperatures, the scheme produces spatial fields that qualitatively capture geographic features, but quantitative validation shows the down-scaling model performance to be very similar to the original NLDAS-2 minimum temperatures. Thus, we limit the discussion in this paper to daily maximum temperatures. Overall, errors in the down-scaled maximum air temperatures are comparable to errors in down-scaled LST obtained in previous studies. The advantage of this approach is that it produces estimates of daily maximum air temperatures, which is more relevant than LST in applications such as public health. The resulting 1 km daily maximum air temperatures have great potential utility for applications such as public health, energy demand, and surface energy balance analyses. The method may not perform as well in conditions of strong temperature advection. Application of the model also may be problematic in areas having extreme changes in elevation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Species richness and composition of current vegetation may reflect historical land use. We develop and examine the hypothesis that regional distribution and richness of fleshy-fruited woody plants, a group sharing life-form and dispersal system, reflect historical land use in open or semi-open habitats. Historical land use was based on maps from around the year 1900 for two regions in Sweden, and field data was gathered from surveys made in these regions. Species richness was positively related to historical land use indicated as open habitat in 1900. In one of the regions, five out of nine examined species were positively related to historical land use (with historical effect R2 ranging between 0.03 and 0.22). In the other region, we found a weaker positive relationship with historical land use in two out of nine examined species (R2 0.01 and 0.02). We conclude that current occurrence and richness of fleshy-fruited woody species is partly a legacy of historical land use, and that regions may vary in this respect. Based on a comparison between the two regions examined here, we discuss some potential causes behind this variation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Taking the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration, with its rapid economic and social development and dramatic changes in land use, as an example with which to conduct this research, this paper analyzes the influence of traffic accessibility on land use and socioeconomic development by using Internet maps, points of interest (POI), and data about land use and socioeconomic development. The results of this study are as follows: (1) the calculation results of traffic accessibility can reflect the real situation because spatial distribution has an obvious feature of circle-like structure, and the development level of each township has high consistency; (2) major change characteristics in land use are that cultivated and forest lands are decreasing, and construction land is increasing, and it is obvious that the increase of construction land is featured by spatial autocorrelation and clusters of construction areas along the city borders; (3) traffic accessibility has a significant impact on land use status and changes and socioeconomic development, while the number of facilities has weak impact on land use, which is a reflection of advanced infrastructure in the urban agglomeration; and (4) the construction of transport infrastructure promotes the transformation of land use from water to construction land, therefore, more emphasis should be placed on protecting the river system in future infrastructure construction so as to improve the ecological benefits in the river basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the correlation between climate, environment and human land use in the Westernmost Mediterranean on both sides of the Strait of Gibraltar during the Late Glacial. Using a multi-proxy approach on a sample of 300 sites from the Solutrean and Magdalenian of the Iberian Peninsula and from the Iberomaurusian in Morocco, we find evidence for significant changes in settlement patterns and site density after the Last Glacial Maximum. In Southern Iberia, during Heinrich Stadial 1, hyperarid zones expanded drastically from the south-eastern coast to the West through the Interior. This aridification process heavily affected Magdalenian settlement in the South and caused a strong decline of hunter-gatherer population. Southern Iberia during Heinrich Stadial 1 turned out to be a high-risk environment when compared to Northern Iberia. At the same time, the Late Iberomaurusian of Morocco, although considered to be situated in a high-risk environment as well, experiences an increase of sites and expansion of settlement area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Myanmar undergoes rapid urban expansion and experiences its negative impacts, often due to the loss of urban green spaces. National and local authorities lack sufficient knowledge, capacity and plans on how to preserve urban green spaces and benefit from their ecosystem services, with such gaps being particularly pronounced in the smaller secondary cities. This study focuses in such as secondary city, Pyin Oo Lwin, and analyzes land use and land cover (LULC) change, tree diversity and carbon stored in aboveground and belowground biomass, and soil. We focus on the main green spaces of the city, which contain different configurations of urban forest, grassland and agricultural land. Remote sensing analysis tracked LULC change between 1988 and 2018, and showed the extensive increase of built-up area, and the decline of urban forests and urban farms. Even though a substantial amount of green spaces has been converted to built-up land, the remaining urban green spaces are still serving as an important habitat for many different tree species, with a total of 82 species from 35 families observed in the different green spaces. Furthermore, these green spaces contain significant carbon stocks, which are, however, highly variable: botanical garden (383.67 t/ha), coffee farms (355.64 t/ha), monasteries (277.14 t/ha), golf course (208.45 t/ha), and seasonal farms (123.22 t/ha). Nevertheless, the extensive LULC change has reduced carbon stocks from 2.41 Mt (1988) to 1.65 Mt (2018). The findings of this study provide a better understanding of LULC change in secondary cities of Myanmar, and build an evidence base on how urban green spaces preservation and green infrastructure development can contribute to green economic transitions, and sustainable, resilient, and low-carbon cities in the country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We estimate the effects of Peru's oldest watershed payments for environmental services (PES) initiative in Moyobamba (Andes–Amazon transition zone) and disentangle the complex intervention into its two main forest conservation treatments. First, a state-managed protected area (PA) was established, allowing sustainable use but drastically limiting de facto land use and land rights of households in the upper watershed through command-and-control interventions. Second, a subset of those environmentally regulated households also received incentives: PES-like voluntary contracts with conditional in-kind rewards, combined with access to participation in sustainable income-generating activities of the integrated conservation and development project (ICDP) type. To evaluate impacts, we perform matching procedures and adjustment regressions to obtain the average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) of each intervention. We investigate impacts on plot-level forest cover and household welfare for the period 2010–2016. We find that both treatments—command-and-control restrictions and the incentive package—modestly but significantly mitigated primary forest loss. Incentive-induced conservation gains came at elevated per-hectare implementation costs. We also find positive effects on incentive-treated households' incomes and assets; however, their self-perceived wellbeing counterintuitively declined. We hypothesise that locally frustrated beneficiary expectations vis-a-vis the ambitiously designed PES-cum-ICDP intervention help explain this surprising finding. We finalise with some recommendations for watershed incentives and policy mix design in Moyobamba and beyond. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relationship between deforestation and malaria in Amazonian Brazil is complex, and a deeper understanding of this relationship is required to inform effective control measures in this region. Here, we are particularly interested in characterizing the impact of land use and land cover change on the genetics of the major regional vector of malaria, Nyssorhynchus darlingi (Root). We used nextera-tagmented, Reductively Amplified DNA (nextRAD) genotyping-by-sequencing to genotype 164 Ny. darlingi collected from 16 collection sites with divergent forest cover levels in seven municipalities in four municipality groups that span the state of Amazonas in northwestern Amazonian Brazil: São Gabriel da Cachoeira, Presidente Figueiredo, four municipalities in the area around Cruzeiro do Sul, and Lábrea. Using a dataset of 5,561 Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs), we investigated the genetic structure of these Ny. darlingi populations with a combination of model- and non-model-based analyses. We identified weak to moderate genetic differentiation among the four municipality groups. There was no evidence for microgeographic genetic structure of Ny. darlingi among forest cover levels within the municipality groups, indicating that there may be gene flow across areas of these municipalities with different degrees of deforestation. Additionally, we conducted an environmental association analysis using two outlier detection methods to determine whether individual SNPs were associated with forest cover level without affecting overall population genetic structure. We identified 14 outlier SNPs, and investigated functions associated with their proximal genes, which could be further characterized in future studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As uncontrolled urban growth has increasingly challenged the sustainable use of urban land, it is critically important to model urban growth from different perspectives. Using the SLEUTH (Slope, Land use, Exclusion, Urban, Transportation, and Hill-shade) model, the historical data of Hefei in 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015 were collected and input to simulate urban growth from 2015 to 2040. Three different urban growth scenarios were considered, namely a historical growth scenario, an urban planning growth scenario, and a land suitability growth scenario. Prediction results show that by 2040 urban built-up land would increase to 1434 km2 in the historical growth scenario, to 1190 km2 in the urban planning growth scenario, and to 1217 km2 in the land suitability growth scenario. We conclude that (1) exclusion layers without effective limits might result in unreasonable prediction of future built-up land; (2) based on the general land use map, the urban growth prediction took the governmental policies into account and could reveal the development hotspots in urban planning; and (3) the land suitability scenario prediction was the result of the trade-off between ecological land and built-up land as it used the MCR -based (minimum cumulative resistance model) land suitability assessment result. It would help to form a compact urban space and avoid excessive protection of farmland and ecological land. Findings derived from this study may provide urban planners with interesting insights on formulating urban planning strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land-use change is threatening biodiversity worldwide, affecting above and below ground animal communities by altering their trophic niches. However, shifts in trophic niches with changes in land use are little studied and this applies in particular to belowground animals. Oribatid mites are among the most abundant soil animals, involved in decomposition processes and nutrient cycling. We analyzed shifts in trophic niches of six soil-living oribatid mite species with the conversion of lowland secondary rainforest into plantation systems of different land-use intensity (jungle rubber, rubber and oil palm monoculture plantation) in two regions of southwest Sumatra, Indonesia. We measured stable isotope ratios (13C/12C and 15N/14N) of single oribatid mite individuals and calculated shifts in stable isotope niches with changes in land use. Significant changes in stable isotope ratios in three of the six studied oribatid mite species indicated that these species shift their trophic niches with changes in land use. The trophic shift was either due to changes in trophic level (δ15N values), to changes in the use of basal resources (δ13C values) or to changes in both. The trophic shift generally was most pronounced between more natural systems (rainforest and jungle rubber) on one side and monoculture plantations systems (rubber and oil palm plantations) on the other, reflecting that the shifts were related to land-use intensity. Although trophic niches of the other three studied species did not differ significantly between land-use systems they followed a similar trend. Overall, the results suggest that colonization of very different ecosystems such as rainforest and intensively managed monoculture plantations by oribatid mite species likely is related to their ability to shift their trophic niches, i.e. to trophic plasticity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigated the perception of affordances for walking along a narrow path. We asked whether participants could perceive changes in affordances brought about by manipulation of properties of the body, or of the environment, without direct practice of the to-be-perceived affordance, and without external feedback about the accuracy of perception. In Experiment 1, participants made a series of 8 judgments of how far they could walk along a narrow path either, 1) without added weight, 2) while wearing a weighted vest, or 3) while wearing weights on their ankles. Before walking, mean judgments were lower when wearing weights than in the no-weight condition. In addition, in both weight conditions judgments changed across the series of 8 judgments, in the direction of greater accuracy. Control of the body in walking also can be influenced by motion of the ground surface, as commonly happens in vehicles. In Experiment 2, on a ship at sea, we evaluated the effects of walking with or without weight added to the body at the ankles. We again asked participants (experienced maritime crewmembers) to judge how far they could walk along a narrow path, with versus without ankle weights. As in Experiment 1, judgments made before walking mirrored the observed differences in walking performance. In addition, we again found evidence that judgment improved (without walking practice, or feedback) over the series of judgments. We conclude that participants were sensitive to (and spontaneously learned about) how affordances for walking were influenced by changes in the dynamics of body and the environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The affiliation for the first author is incorrect. Workaferahu Ameneshewa is not affiliated with #1 but with #2: Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, College of Social Science, Arba Minch University, Ethiopia.By Workaferahu Ameneshewa; Yechale Kebede; Dikaso Unbushe and Abiyot LegesseReported by Author; Author; Author; Author [Extracted from the article]

The correct Funding statement is: This research received financial support from Climate and Land Use Alliance (CLUA) (Grant Number G-2007-56990) and Brazilian National Cancer Institute José Alencar Gomes da Silva (INCA). https://www.climateandlandusealliance.org/ http://www.inca.gov.br The funder had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript and does not necessarily share the positions expressed in the Grantee's publication. We thank the Public Labour Prosecution Office (Ministério Público do Trabalho - MPT) for paying the publication fees through public civil action No. 0100263-41.2021.5.01.0005. [Extracted from the article]

Land use influences the prevalence and distribution of ticks due to the intimate relationship of ticks with their environment. This relationship occurs because land use alters two essential tick requirements: vertebrate hosts for blood meals and a suitable microclimate when off-host. Given the risks to human and animal health associated with pathogens transmitted by ticks, there is an ongoing need to understand the impact of environmental drivers on tick distributions. Here, we assessed how landscape features, neighborhood effects, and edges influenced tick occupancy and abundance across an agricultural landscape in southern Africa. We found that Rhipicephalus appendiculatus and Rhipicephalus simus increased in abundance closer to protected savanna, while Haemaphysalis elliptica increased in abundance closer to human habitation. The composition of the landscape surrounding savanna patches also differentially influenced the occupancy of each tick species; H. elliptica was more likely to be found in savanna patches surrounded by subsistence agriculture while R. appendiculatus and R. simus were more likely to be found in savanna surrounded by sugarcane monocultures. At the local scale we found that R. appendiculatus and R. simus avoided savanna edges. The availability of hosts and variation in vegetation structure between commercial agriculture, subsistence agriculture, and savanna likely drove the distribution of ticks at the landscape scale. Understanding how anthropogenic land use influences where ticks occur is useful for land use planning and for assessing public and animal health risks associated with ticks and tick-borne diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In urban ecosystems, woody vegetation communities and the ecosystem functions and habitat they provide are largely controlled by humans. These communities are assembled during development, landscaping, and maintenance processes according to decisions made by human actors. While vegetation communities on residential land uses are increasingly well studied, these efforts generally have not extended to other land uses, including commercial property. To fill this gap, I surveyed tree and shrub communities on office developments located in Redmond and Bellevue, Washington, USA, and explored whether aggregated neighborhood and parcel scale socio-economic variables or variables describing the outcome of development and landscaping actions better explained variation in vegetation communities. I found that both tree and shrub communities on office developments are heterogenous, with sites characterized by native or ornamental vegetation. The heterogeneity I observed in vegetation communities within one land use suggests that different ecosystem functions, habitat quality, and habitat quantities are provided on office developments. Greater provision of e.g. native conifer habitat is possible using currently existing developments as models. Additionally, the outcome of development and landscaping decisions explained more variation in community composition than the socio-economic factors found significant on residential property. Together with previous research showing that residential property owner attitudes and actions are more important than socio-economic descriptors, my results suggest that individual motivators, including intended audience, may be the primary determinant of urban vegetation communities. Future urban ecology research should consider sampling the vegetation gradient within land uses, better understanding individual motivation for vegetation management, and creating models of the urban ecosystems that account for alternate decision pathways on different land uses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this study was to evaluate (1) effects of bark stripping and climatic factors on radial growth of Picea abies /L./ Karst., (2) production and structural differences between stands established on the forestland and abandoned farmland (afforested farmland–henceforth, farmland), and (3) interaction among the losses caused by ungulate damages, production, diversity, and soil types. Data acquired from four permanent research plots (PRPs) located on the forestland and eight PRPs on the farmland were used. A number of tree- and stand-level models, stand structural indices, tree-rings, and climate characteristics were analysed to evaluate the hypotheses. The results show significantly higher means of DBH, tree height and basal area on the forestland compared to those on the farmland. There was a larger mean standing stem volume on the forestland (466 m3 ha–1) compared to farmland (770 m3 ha–1). Significant difference was observed between the mean DBH and mean stem volume of healthy trees compared to those of the trees with substantial damage (girth damage >1/3 of stem circumference). A greater extent of the girth damage was found on 86% trees on the farmland, while 54% damage on the forestland. About 62% bark-strip damage was further deteriorated by rot infection on the farmland, while on the forestland such an infection was only for 39% trees. The precipitation significantly positively affected the radial growth of trees that were largely affected by ungulate damages on the farmland. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a method for calculating the Acute Insecticide Toxicity Loading (AITL) on US agricultural lands and surrounding areas and an assessment of the changes in AITL from 1992 through 2014. The AITL method accounts for the total mass of insecticides used in the US, acute toxicity to insects using honey bee contact and oral LD50 as reference values for arthropod toxicity, and the environmental persistence of the pesticides. This screening analysis shows that the types of synthetic insecticides applied to agricultural lands have fundamentally shifted over the last two decades from predominantly organophosphorus and N-methyl carbamate pesticides to a mix dominated by neonicotinoids and pyrethroids. The neonicotinoids are generally applied to US agricultural land at lower application rates per acre; however, they are considerably more toxic to insects and generally persist longer in the environment. We found a 48- and 4-fold increase in AITL from 1992 to 2014 for oral and contact toxicity, respectively. Neonicotinoids are primarily responsible for this increase, representing between 61 to nearly 99 percent of the total toxicity loading in 2014. The crops most responsible for the increase in AITL are corn and soybeans, with particularly large increases in relative soybean contributions to AITL between 2010 and 2014. Oral exposures are of potentially greater concern because of the relatively higher toxicity (low LD50s) and greater likelihood of exposure from residues in pollen, nectar, guttation water, and other environmental media. Using AITL to assess oral toxicity by class of pesticide, the neonicotinoids accounted for nearly 92 percent of total AITL from 1992 to 2014. Chlorpyrifos, the fifth most widely used insecticide during this time contributed just 1.4 percent of total AITL based on oral LD50s. Although we use some simplifying assumptions, our screening analysis demonstrates an increase in pesticide toxicity loading over the past 26 years, which potentially threatens the health of honey bees and other pollinators and may contribute to declines in beneficial insect populations as well as insectivorous birds and other insect consumers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this study was to explore the correlations between land use/cover change and cultivated land ecological security in flatland and mountainous areas. Firstly, the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of land use/cover change are described in conjunction with ArcGIS10.5 software based on remote sensing images of 2005 and 2015. Then, by establishing a pressure-support framework as an assessment indicator system and developing an improved BP neural network model via a genetic algorithm with the help of MATLAB2016a, the spatiotemporal dynamic changes of cultivated land ecological security in Yuxi City from 2005 to 2015 are evaluated. The results showed that the transformation of farmland area accounted for a large proportion of increased constructive land and land use/cover spatial variations were significantly different among counties, which manifested the changes in farmland and the construction land in flatland areas but also facilitated a mutual transformation of forest and grass in mountainous areas. Moreover, ecological security status presented a clear difference among counties due to their different land use/cover changes. The ecological security state of the flatland expressed a higher ecological pressure and lower ecological support, so the security grade was IV. Otherwise, the ecological security was superior and the security grade was level II or I in the mountainous areas. Thus, protection strategies for ecological security should be differentiated in the flatland areas and mountainous areas due to their different ecological security status brought by land use/cover change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil organic carbon plays an important role in the stability and fertility of soil and is influenced by different management practice. We quantified active and passive carbon pools from total soil organic carbon (TOC) in seven different land use systems of northeast India. TOC was highest (2.75%) in natural forest and lowest in grassland (1.31%) and it decreased with increasing depth in different pools of lability. Very Labile Carbon (VLC) fraction ranged from 36.11 to 42.74% of TOC across different land use system. Active carbon (AC) pool was highest in Wet Rice Cultivation (61.64%) and lowest (58.71%) in natural forest. Higher AC pools (VLC and less labile) in most land use systems barring natural forests suggest that the land use systems in the region are vulnerable to land use change and must adopt suitable management practice to harness carbon sequestration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bosten Lake is an important region of Northwest China that has transformed from a freshwater lake to a saltwater lake since the 1970s. The water quality in the Bosten Lake basin is important for social and economic development, and nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) are the key indicators of water quality. The land use data, precipitation data and Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data with the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model were used to simulate the N and P exports of the Bosten Lake basin. The spatial and temporal dynamics of nitrogen and phosphorus exports, and the response of nitrogen and phosphorus exports to land use change and precipitation change were analyzed between 2000 and 2015. The results show that the amount of N and P exports increased during 2000–2015, and the N and P exports are mainly distributed around Bosten Lake. The N and P exports are greatly affected by cultivated land, built-up areas and grassland, while they are less affected by other land use types. The high precipitation areas with small exports of N and P are mainly distributed in mountain areas, while small precipitation areas with large exports of N and P are distributed in plains where the cultivated land and built-up areas are concentrated. The InVEST model can be used in Northwest China, and the statistical downscaling of reanalysis precipitation data can be used in the InVEST model to improve the simulation accuracy in the data scarce regions of Northwest China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While the area of plantation forest increased globally between 2010 and 2015, more than twice the area of natural forests was lost over the same period (6.5 million ha natural forest lost per year versus 3.2 million ha plantation gained per year). Consequently, there is an increasing need to understand how plantation land use affects biodiversity. The relative conservation value of plantation forests is context dependent, being influenced by previous land use, management regimes and landscape composition. What is less well understood, and of importance to conservation management, is the consistency of diversity patterns across regions, and the degree to which useful generalisations can be provided within and among bioregions. Here, we analyse forest birds in Ireland, France and Portugal, representing distinct regions across the Atlantic biogeographic area of Europe. We compared taxonomic, functional and phylogenetic diversity of bird communities among conifer plantations and semi-natural oak forests, and assessed correlations between species traits and forest type across these regions. Although bird composition (assessed with NMDS ordination) differed consistently between plantation and oak forests across all three regions, species richness and Shannon diversity did not show a consistent pattern. In Ireland and France, metrics of taxonomic diversity (richness and Shannon diversity), functional diversity, functional dispersion and phylogenetic diversity were greater in oak forests than plantations. However, in Portugal taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity did not differ significantly between forest types, while functional diversity and dispersion were statistically significantly greater in plantations. No single bird trait-forest type association correlated in a consistent direction across the three study regions. Trait associations for the French bird communities appeared intermediate between those in Ireland and Portugal, and when trait correlations were significant in both Ireland and Portugal, the direction of the correlation was always opposite. The variation in response of bird communities to conifer plantations indicates that care is needed when generalising patterns of community diversity and assembly mechanisms across regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land cover change is a dynamic phenomenon driven by synergetic biophysical and socioeconomic effects. It involves massive transitions from natural to less natural habitats and thereby threatens ecosystems and the services they provide. To retain intact ecosystems and reduce land cover change to a minimum of natural transition processes, a dense network of protected areas has been established across Europe. However, even protected areas and in particular the zones around protected areas have been shown to undergo land cover changes. The aim of our study was to compare land cover changes in protected areas, non-protected areas, and 1 km buffer zones around protected areas and analyse their relationship to climatic and socioeconomic factors across Europe between 2000 and 2012 based on earth observation data. We investigated land cover flows describing major change processes: urbanisation, afforestation, deforestation, intensification of agriculture, extensification of agriculture, and formation of water bodies. Based on boosted regression trees, we modelled correlations between land cover flows and climatic and socioeconomic factors. The results show that land cover changes were most frequent in 1 km buffer zones around protected areas (3.0% of all buffer areas affected). Overall, land cover changes within protected areas were less frequent than outside, although they still amounted to 18,800 km2 (1.5% of all protected areas) from 2000 to 2012. In some parts of Europe, urbanisation and intensification of agriculture still accounted for up to 25% of land cover changes within protected areas. Modelling revealed meaningful relationships between land cover changes and a combination of influencing factors. Demographic factors (accessibility to cities and population density) were most important for coarse-scale patterns of land cover changes, whereas fine-scale patterns were most related to longitude (representing the general east/west economic gradient) and latitude (representing the north/south climatic gradient). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Taking inspiration from the archaeology of the Texas Coastal Plain (TCP), we develop an ecological theory of population distribution among mobile hunter-gatherers. This theory proposes that, due to the heterogeneity of resources in space and time, foragers create networks of habitats that they access through residential cycling and shared knowledge. The degree of cycling that individuals exhibit in creating networks of habitats, encoded through social relationships, depends on the relative scarcity of resources and fluctuations in those resources. Using a dynamic model of hunter-gatherer population distribution, we illustrate that increases in population density, coupled with shocks to a biophysical or social system, creates a selective environment that favors habitat partitioning and investments in social mechanisms that control the residential cycling of foragers on a landscape. Our work adds a layer of realism to Ideal Distribution Models by adding a time allocation decision process in a variable environment and illustrates a general variance reduction, safe-operating space tradeoff among mobile human foragers that drives social change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land use and land cover change induced by large scale ecological restoration programs has a significant impact on the terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycle, especially on the net primary productivity (NPP) in arid and semi-arid regions. This study investigated the change in NPP caused by the large-scale ecological restoration in the Chinese Loess Plateau (LPR) region from 1986 to 2015 based on land cover datasets and NPP calculated using the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach model. The results indicated that the annual total NPP exhibited a significant uptrend (P < 0.01) throughout the whole vegetation restoration region during the last 30 years, with an annual increase of 0.137 Tg C. A significant abrupt change was detected in 2006 for the annual total NPP series. Over half of the restoration region showed an increase in NPP in the past three decades, however, about 30~40% of the vegetation restoration region exhibited NPP loss before 2006, but subsequently NPP loss was found in only approximately 20% of the study region. Overall, the increase in NPP attributed to the vegetation restoration reached 51.14 Tg C in the past three decades, indicating that these large-scale vegetation restoration programs increased the carbon sequestration capacity of terrestrial ecosystems in the Loess Plateau. The findings of this study improve our understanding of the effects of the green campaign on terrestrial ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mangroves play an essential ecological role in the maintenance of the coastal zone and are extremely important for the socioeconomics of coastal communities. However, mangrove ecosystems are impacted by a range of anthropogenic pressures, and the loss of this habitat can be attributed primarily to the human occupation of the coastal zone. In the present study, we analyzed the spatial patterns of land use in the mangrove of the Brazilian Amazon coast, and evaluated the anthropogenic drivers of this impact, using a remote sensing approach. We mapped the road network using RapidEye images, and human settlements using global data. The results of these analyses indicate that the Brazilian Amazon coast has a low population density and low rates of anthropogenic impact in most of the coastal microregions investigated, factors that contribute to the maintenance and conservation of the region’s mangrove. The study also revealed that the paved road network is one of the principal drivers of land use in the mangrove, whereas other factors, such as population density, urban centers, and the number of settlements are much less important. While the region has 2024 km of paved highways, unpaved roads (17,496 km) facilitate access to the mangrove, with approximately 90% of anthropogenic impact being recorded within a 3 km radius of these roads. While the network of paved highways is relatively reduced in extension, preventive measures are urgently required to impede any major shift in the current scenario, caused by the expansion of major development programs. The results of the study indicate that biophysical, economic, and political factors may also contribute to the reduction, stability, and development of one of the world’s largest areas of mangrove forest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Animal and plant species often face multiple threats simultaneously. We explored the relative impact of three major threats on populations of the endangered San Joaquin kit fox. This species was once widely distributed across the southern San Joaquin Valley, California, USA, but agriculture and urban development have replaced much of its natural habitat. We modeled impacts of climate change, land-use change, and rodenticide exposure on kit fox populations using a spatially explicit, individual-based population model from 2000 to 2050 for the Central Valley, California. Our study indicates that land-use change will likely have the largest impact on kit fox populations. Land development has the potential to decrease populations by approximately 15% under a compact growth scenario in which projected population increases are accommodated within existing urban areas, and 17% under a business-as-usual scenario in which future population growth increases the developed area around urban centers. Plausible scenarios for exposure to pesticides suggest a reduction in kit fox populations by approximately 13%. By contrast, climate change has the potential to ameliorate some of these impacts. Climate-change induced vegetation shifts have the potential to increase total available kit fox habitat and could drive population increases of up to 7%. These vegetation shifts could also reduce movement barriers and create opportunities for hybridization between the endangered San Joaquin kit fox and the more widely distributed desert kit fox, found in the Mojave Desert. In contrast to these beneficial impacts, increasing climate extremes raise the probability of the kit fox population dropping below critical levels. Taken together, these results paint a complex picture of how an at-risk species is likely to respond to multiple threats. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fecal pollution management remains one of the biggest challenges for water quality authorities worldwide. Advanced fecal pollution source identification technologies are now available that can provide quantitative information from many animal groups. As public interest in these methodologies grows, it is vital to use standardized procedures with clearly defined data acceptance metrics and conduct field studies demonstrating the use of these techniques to help resolve real-world water quality challenges. Here we apply recently standardized human-associated qPCR methods with custom data acceptance metrics (HF183/BacR287 and HumM2), along with established procedures for ruminant (Rum2Bac), cattle (CowM2 and CowM3), canine (DG3 and DG37), and avian (GFD) fecal pollution sources to (i) demonstrate the feasibility of implementing standardized qPCR procedures in a large-scale field study, and (ii) characterize trends in fecal pollution sources in the research area. A total of 602 water samples were collected over a one-year period at 29 sites along the Trask, Kilchis, and Tillamook rivers and tributaries in the Tillamook Bay Watershed (OR, USA). Host-associated qPCR results were combined with high-resolution geographic information system (GIS) land use and general indicator bacteria (E. coli) measurements to elucidate water quality fecal pollution trends. Results demonstrate the feasibility of implementing standardized fecal source identification qPCR methods with established data acceptance metrics in a large-scale field study leading to new investigative leads suggesting that elevated E. coli levels may be linked to specific pollution sources and land use activities in the Tillamook Bay Watershed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The deterioration of water quality has become a primary environmental concern worldwide. Understanding the status of water quality and identifying the influencing factors are important for water resources management. However, reported analyses have mostly been conducted in small and focused areas. It is still unclear if factors driving spatial variation in water quality would be different in extended spatial scales. In this paper, we analyzed spatial pattern of inland surface water quality in China using a dataset with four water quality parameters (i.e., pH, DO, NH4+-N and CODMn) and the water quality level. We tested the effects of anthropogenic (i.e., land use and socio-economic) and natural (i.e., climatic and topographic) factors on spatial variation in water quality. The study concluded that the overall inland surface water quality in China was at level III (fair). Water quality level was strongly correlated with CODMn and NH4+-N concentration. In contrast to reported studies that suggested land use patterns were the determinants of inland surface water quality, this study revealed that both anthropogenic and natural factors played important roles in explaining spatial variation of inland surface water quality in China. Among the tested explanatory variables, mean elevation within watershed appeared as the best predictor for pH, while annual precipitation and mean air temperature were the most important explanatory variables for CODMn and DO, respectively. NH4+-N concentration and water quality level were most strongly correlated with the percent of forest cover in watershed. Compared to studies at smaller spatial scales, this study found different influencing factors of surface water quality, suggesting that factors may play different roles at different spatial scales of consideration. Therefore management policies and measures in water quality control must be established and implemented accordingly. Since currently adopted parameters for monitoring of inland surface water quality in China are largely influenced by natural variables, additional physicochemical and biological indicators are needed for a robust assessment of human impacts on water quality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Concordance among wetland physicochemical conditions, vegetation, and surrounding land cover may result from the influence of land cover on the sources of plant propagules, on physicochemical conditions, and their subsequent determination of growing conditions. Alternatively, concordance may result if differences in climate, soils, and species pools are spatially confounded with differences in human population density and land conversion. Further, we expect that land cover within catchment boundaries will be more predictive than land cover in symmetrical buffers if runoff is a major pathway. We measured concordance between land cover, wetland vegetation and physicochemical conditions in 48 prairie pothole wetlands, controlling for inter-wetland distance. We contrasted land-cover data collected over a four-year period by multiple extraction approaches including topographically-delineated catchments and nested 30 m to 5,000 m radius buffers. After factoring out inter-wetland distance, physiochemical conditions were significantly concordant with land cover. Vegetation was not significantly concordant with land cover, though it was strongly and significantly concordant with physicochemical conditions. More, concordance was as strong when land cover was extracted from buffers <500 m in radius as from catchments, indicating the mechanism responsible is not topographically constrained. We conclude that local landscape structure does not directly influence wetland vegetation composition, but rather that vegetation depends on 1) physicochemical conditions in the wetland that are affected by surrounding land cover and on 2) regional factors such as the vegetation species pool and geographic gradients in climate, soil type, and land use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Flooding is one of the most disastrous global hazards, which has been occurring more frequently in recent times. It is observed that climate change is likely to increase the intensity and the frequency of floods and river basins have become more vulnerable to fluvial flooding. In this study, the impact of climate change on fluvial flooding was analyzed over the Adyar sub-basin. This study applied statistically downscaled Global Climate Model (GCM) data in a CMIP5 dataset of IPCC Assessment Report 5 (AR5). Based on the performance to simulate the observed climate, four GCMs, namely, cesm1-cam5, mpi-esm-mr, ncar-ccsm4, and bnu-esm, for RCP 4.5 were selected for projections of the future scenario. The Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves for the past and future scenarios were derived from the IMD-observed and GCM-projected rainfall data. Integrated flood modeling was performed with hydrologic (HEC-HMS) and hydraulic (HEC-RAS) models. Finally, in order to visualize the inundation areas according to the future climate projection, flood inundation maps were prepared geospatially using the ArcGIS software. For the 100-year return period, the results predict that the peak discharge for the future climate scenario would increase by 34.3%–91.9% as compared to the present climate scenario. Similarly, the future projections show an increase in the flooded area ranging from 12.6% to 26.4% based on GCMs. This simulation helps in understanding the flood risk over the Adyar sub-basin under the changing climate and the requirement for the regulation of developmental activities over the flood-prone areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecological communities are structured by multiple processes operating at multiple scales yet understanding the scale-dependency of these processes remains an open challenge. This might be particularly true for parasites, for which biotic rather than abiotic processes may play a primary role in structuring communities. Focusing on vines, a group of structural parasites that gain access to the canopy using different climbing mechanisms, we examined the influence of abiotic factors in tandem with host-parasite and parasite-parasite interactions in the assembly of tropical vine communities. Two synthetic variables, namely Climate1 and landscape Variety, were consistently important in explaining variation in species richness and diversity, as well as species composition, but their importance varied with scale. Whereas Climate1 summarizes the largest variability among climatic variables, landscape Variety expresses landscape heterogeneity within a neighborhood. Significant patterns of species co-occurrences suggest that vine-vine interactions also contribute to vine community assembly. Our results may be critical to understand vine proliferation and help design management strategies for their control. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Household electricity access data in Africa are scarce, particularly at the subnational level. We followed a model-based Geostatistics approach to produce maps of electricity access between 2000 and 2013 at a 5 km resolution. We collated data from 69 nationally representative household surveys conducted in Africa and incorporated nighttime lights imagery as well as land use and land cover data to produce maps of electricity access between 2000 and 2013. The information produced here can be an aid for understanding of how electricity access has changed in the region during this 14 year period. The resolution and the continental scale makes it possible to combine these data with other sources in applications in the socio-economic field, both at a local or regional level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agricultural lands are the widest Human-modified ecosystems, making crop production the most extensive form of land use on Earth. However, in conventional agricultural land management, soil erosion may be boosted up to 1–2 orders of magnitude higher than the natural rates of soil production, making unproductive about the 30% of the world’s arable. Nowadays in Europe, vineyards represent the most erosion-prone agricultural lands, especially in Mediterranean countries, showing the highest erosion rates in comparison to other type of land uses. Prosecco wine is produced in NE Italy by a rate of 400 M bottles per year, with the fastest growing demand in the global market at present. A production of 90 M bottles year-1 is currently running in the historical Prosecco DOCG (215 km2), in a steep hilly landscape of Veneto Region (Conegliano-Valdobbiadene). To sustain wine production, agricultural intensification is at present increasing, by re-setting of hillslopes and land use changes towards new vineyard plantations. The aim of this study is to estimate and to map potential soil erosion rate, calculating a sort of “soil footprint” for wine production in different agricultural land-management scenarios. RUSLE model was adopted to estimate potential soil erosion in Mg ha−1 year−1, by using high resolution topographic data (LiDAR), 10 years rainfall data analysis, detailed land use and local soil characteristics. For a conventional land-management scenario the estimated that total potential soil erosion in the Prosecco DOCG area is 411,266 Mg year-1, with an erosion rate of 19.5 Mg ha year-1. Modelled soil erosion is mainly clustered on steep slopes, with rates higher than 40 Mg ha-1 year-1. In Prosecco vineyards potential soil erosion could reach 300,180 Mg year-1, by a mean rate of 43.7 Mg ha-1 year-1, which is 31 times higher than the upper limit of tolerable soil erosion threshold defined for Europe. In contrast, simulation of different nature-based scenarios (hedgerows, buffer strips, and grass cover) showed soil erosion could be effectively reduced: a 100% inter-row grass cover showed a reduction of almost 3 times in vineyards (from 43.7 to 14.6 Mg ha-1 year-1), saving about 50% of soil in the whole Prosecco DOCG. The soil footprint modelled for a conventional land-management scenario is about 3.3 kg every bottle produced; in contrast it would be reduced to 1.1 kg/bottle in the completely green land-management scenario. This study, as the first estimation of potential soil erosion at Prosecco DOCG scale, suggests that an integrated and public soil erosion monitoring system is strongly needed in viticultural area, by implementing direct/indirect field measures with spatial analyses at agricultural landscape scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Long-term monitoring of species assemblages provides a unique opportunity to test hypotheses regarding environmentally induced directional trajectories of freshwater species assemblages. We used 57 years of lockchamber fish rotenone and boat electrofishing survey data (1957–2014) collected by the Ohio River Valley Water Sanitation Commission (ORSANCO) to test for directional trajectories in taxonomy, trophic classifications, and life history strategies of freshwater fish assemblages in the Ohio River Basin. We found significant changes in taxonomic and trophic composition of freshwater fishes in the Ohio River Basin. Annual species richness varied from 31 to 90 species and generally increased with year. Temporal trajectories were present for taxonomic and trophic assemblages. Assemblage structure based on taxonomy was correlated with land use change (decrease in agriculture and increase in forest). Taxonomic assemblage structure was also correlated with altered hydrology variables of increased minimum discharge, decreased fall rate, and increased rise rate. Trophic composition of fish catch correlated with land use change (decrease in agriculture and increase in forest) and altered hydrology. Altered hydrology of increased minimum discharge, increased fall discharge, decreased base flows, and increased number of high pulse events was correlated with increased counts of herbivore-detritivores and decreased counts of piscivores and planktivores. We did not find directional changes in life history composition. We hypothesized a shift occurred from benthic to phytoplankton production throughout the basin that may have decreased secondary production of benthic invertebrates. This may also be responsible for lower trophic position of invertivore and piscivore fishes observed in other studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Conventional traffic crash analyzing methods focus on identifying the relationship between traffic crash outcomes and impact risk factors and explaining the effects of risk factors, which ignore the changes of roadway systems and can lead to inaccurate results in traffic crash predictions. To address this issue, an innovative two-step method is proposed and a support vector regression (SVR) model is formulated into state-space model (SSM) framework for traffic crash prediction. The SSM was developed in the first step to identify the dynamic evolution process of the roadway systems that are caused by the changes of traffic flow and predict the changes of impact factors in roadway systems. Using the predicted impact factors, the SVR model was incorporated in the second step to perform the traffic crash prediction. A five-year dataset that obtained from 1152 roadway segments in Tennessee was employed to validate the model effectiveness. The proposed models result in an average prediction MAPE of 7.59%, a MAE of 0.11, and a RMSD of 0.32. For the performance comparison, a SVR model and a multivariate negative binomial (MVNB) model were developed to do the same task. The results show that the proposed model has superior performances in terms of prediction accuracy compared to the SVR and MVNB models. Compared to the SVR and MVNB models, the benefit of incorporating a state-space model to identify the changes of roadway systems is significant evident in the proposed models for all crash types, and the prediction accuracy that measured by MAPE can be improved by 4.360% and 6.445% on average, respectively. Apart from accuracy improvement, the proposed models are more robust and the predictions can retain a smoother pattern. Furthermore, the results show that the proposed model has a more precise and synchronized response behavior to the high variations of the observed data, especially for the phenomenon of extra zeros. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]