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While the area of plantation forest increased globally between 2010 and 2015, more than twice the area of natural forests was lost over the same period (6.5 million ha natural forest lost per year versus 3.2 million ha plantation gained per year). Consequently, there is an increasing need to understand how plantation land use affects biodiversity. The relative conservation value of plantation forests is context dependent, being influenced by previous land use, management regimes and landscape composition. What is less well understood, and of importance to conservation management, is the consistency of diversity patterns across regions, and the degree to which useful generalisations can be provided within and among bioregions. Here, we analyse forest birds in Ireland, France and Portugal, representing distinct regions across the Atlantic biogeographic area of Europe. We compared taxonomic, functional and phylogenetic diversity of bird communities among conifer plantations and semi-natural oak forests, and assessed correlations between species traits and forest type across these regions. Although bird composition (assessed with NMDS ordination) differed consistently between plantation and oak forests across all three regions, species richness and Shannon diversity did not show a consistent pattern. In Ireland and France, metrics of taxonomic diversity (richness and Shannon diversity), functional diversity, functional dispersion and phylogenetic diversity were greater in oak forests than plantations. However, in Portugal taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity did not differ significantly between forest types, while functional diversity and dispersion were statistically significantly greater in plantations. No single bird trait-forest type association correlated in a consistent direction across the three study regions. Trait associations for the French bird communities appeared intermediate between those in Ireland and Portugal, and when trait correlations were significant in both Ireland and Portugal, the direction of the correlation was always opposite. The variation in response of bird communities to conifer plantations indicates that care is needed when generalising patterns of community diversity and assembly mechanisms across regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Animal and plant species often face multiple threats simultaneously. We explored the relative impact of three major threats on populations of the endangered San Joaquin kit fox. This species was once widely distributed across the southern San Joaquin Valley, California, USA, but agriculture and urban development have replaced much of its natural habitat. We modeled impacts of climate change, land-use change, and rodenticide exposure on kit fox populations using a spatially explicit, individual-based population model from 2000 to 2050 for the Central Valley, California. Our study indicates that land-use change will likely have the largest impact on kit fox populations. Land development has the potential to decrease populations by approximately 15% under a compact growth scenario in which projected population increases are accommodated within existing urban areas, and 17% under a business-as-usual scenario in which future population growth increases the developed area around urban centers. Plausible scenarios for exposure to pesticides suggest a reduction in kit fox populations by approximately 13%. By contrast, climate change has the potential to ameliorate some of these impacts. Climate-change induced vegetation shifts have the potential to increase total available kit fox habitat and could drive population increases of up to 7%. These vegetation shifts could also reduce movement barriers and create opportunities for hybridization between the endangered San Joaquin kit fox and the more widely distributed desert kit fox, found in the Mojave Desert. In contrast to these beneficial impacts, increasing climate extremes raise the probability of the kit fox population dropping below critical levels. Taken together, these results paint a complex picture of how an at-risk species is likely to respond to multiple threats. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

REDD+ projects primarily focus on reducing carbon emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries. These projects are regularly evaluated against their core objective of conserving carbon stocks, but their contribution to biodiversity conservation has rarely been assessed. To assess the conservation value of the area and the relative performance of a REDD+ land use plan in Yaeda Valley, a semi-arid savannah ecosystem in northern Tanzania, we implemented an annual wildlife monitoring scheme. Based on direct sightings and indirect signs of wildlife, obtained from stratified walking transects conducted annually from 2015–2018, we estimated annual trends of mammal species richness and wildlife densities in three REDD+ and three non-REDD+ land-use strata. Our surveys document a near complete mammal community in the area. Species accumulation curves, and subsequent statistical comparisons, indicated highest mammal species richness in the woodland habitats (both REDD+ and non REDD+ strata) as compared to more human and livestock impacted areas, and suggested constant species richness from 2015–2018. To estimate stratum- and year-specific livestock and wildlife densities (cattle, donkey, goat and sheep combined, Thomson’s gazelle, Kirk’s dik-dik) and wildlife sign densities (aardvark, bushbuck, bushpig, Kirk’s dik dik, eland, elephant, Maasai giraffe, greater kudu, hyena, impala, lesser kudu, warthog, wildebeest, Plains zebra), we fitted species-specific detection functions in a distance sampling framework. Species-specific densities varied between 2015 and 2018 and showed substantial increases and occasional declines in other species-stratum combinations. However, population growth rates were not systematically associated with specific land-use strata. Although our results do not explicitly provide evidence that REDD+ land-use plans directly co-benefit wildlife conservation, they show that REDD+ areas have the potential to maintain intact wildlife assemblages. To ensure effective long-term conservation outcomes, we advocate for a more formal integration of wildlife conservation goals in the REDD+ scheme. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agricultural expansion is one of the leading causes of deforestation in the tropics and in Southeast Asia it is predominantly driven by large-scale production for international trade. Peninsular Malaysia has a long history of plantation agriculture and has been a predominantly resource-based economy where expanding plantations like those of oil palm continue to replace natural forests. Habitat loss from deforestation and expanding plantations threatens Malaysian biodiversity. Expanding industrial plantations have also been responsible for drainage and conversions of peatland forests resulting in release of large amounts of carbon dioxide. The demand for palm oil is expected to increase further and result in greater pressures on tropical forests. Given Malaysia’s high biophysical suitability for oil palm cultivation, it is important to understand patterns of oil palm expansion to better predict forest areas that are vulnerable to future expansion. We study natural forest conversion to industrial oil palm in Peninsular Malaysia between 1988 and 2012 to identify determinants of recent oil palm expansion using logistic regression and hierarchical partitioning. Using maps of recent conversions and remaining forests, we characterize agro-environmental suitability and accessibility for the past and future conversions. We find that accessibility to previously existing plantations is the strongest determinant of oil palm expansion and is significant throughout the study period. Almost all (> 99%) of the forest loss between 1988 and 2012 that has been converted to industrial oil palm plantations is within 1 km from oil palm plantations that have been established earlier. Although most forest conversions to industrial oil palm have been in areas of high biophysical suitability, there has been an increase in converted area in regions with low oil palm suitability since 2006. We find that reduced suitability does not necessarily restrict conversions to industrial oil palm in the region; however, lack of access to established plantations does. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this work, we analyse factors explaining the distribution and range regression of Dupont’s lark in Spain, the only European country in which this threatened alaudid is present. Dupont’s lark is an extremely elusive and scarce species, distributed across a reduced and strongly fragmented range, showing a metapopulational structure with unknown dispersive and connective mechanisms. We used maximum entropy modelling (Maxent) on nearly 15,000 Dupont’s lark observations (1985–2015) to assess the probability of presence at a 1 km resolution across its European range. Moreover, we tested the probability of extinction by comparing pre- and post-2000 observations by means of a GLM over a subset of cells with presence-absence data. We obtained strong model fitting (AUC = 0.919), in which species occurrence was explained by low values of plant productivity (NDVI), climate (high temperature range and medium annual precipitation), land use (increasing with sclerophyllous scrubland), flat topography and human disturbance (associated with low human population density). The species also tolerates dry farming, but not other farm types or forest cover. The probability map identified two main regions known as the species' core areas: the steppes of the Iberian System and the Ebro Valley. The North Plateau is characterised by a dispersed structure of small and very fragmented patches of suitable habitat, while a succession of discontinuous probability patches form an Eastern Corridor connecting the central core areas to the southernmost populations. Finally, the model identified small and isolated patches of high probability of presence along the eastern coastline. The species tends to occur in the best available areas but, at the same time, the model revealed a large area of suitable but unoccupied habitat. Our results correct the previous estimation of occupation area from 1,480 to 1,010.78 km2, a reduction of 26.22%. The current distribution of Dupont’s lark is almost completely covered by Important Bird Areas (IBAs), highlighting their importance for bird conservation, but only 44.89% is included in Natura 2000 Special Protection Areas (SPAs). A comparison of pre- and post-2000 periods revealed a range contraction of 44%. Probability of extinction increased with higher temperature range and lower annual precipitation, and with decreases in population density, which suggests that this species is extremely vulnerable to both climate change and rural abandonment, due to its dependence on traditional grazing. These results suggest the need for a re-evaluation of the conservation status of Dupont’s lark in Spain. They urge the preservation of not only current extant populations, but also the unoccupied suitable areas that could be critical for metapopulation structure, and the development of policies addressing the preservation of traditional grazing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in land use have resulted in range shifts of many wildlife species, including those entering novel environments, resulting in the critical need to understand their spatial ecology to inform ecosystem effects and management decisions. Dispersing elk (Cervus elaphus) were colonizing areas of suitable habitat in the Northern Great Plains, USA, resulting in crop depredation complaints in these areas. Although state resource managers had little information on these elk herds, limited evidence suggested temporal movements into Canada. We collected and analyzed essential information on home range and habitat selection for 3 elk herds residing in North Dakota. We captured 5 adult female elk in each study area, affixed global positioning system collars, and monitored them for 1 year (2016–2017). We estimated diel period, seasonal, and hunting season home ranges using Brownian Bridge Movement Models for each individual. We analyzed habitat selection using multinomial logit models to test for differences in use of land classes, and for departures from proportionate use based on random sampling; our predictor variables included individual elk, diel period, and season. Home ranges differed between the 3 herds, seasons, and diel period; gun and winter season home ranges were both larger than in summer, as was night when compared with day. Female elk generally restricted themselves to cover during the day and entered open areas at night and during winter months. Our results also suggest that elk in our study areas tended to seek more cover, and in the case of our Turtle Mountain study area, some cross into Canada during gun season. Our study provides a better understanding of the spatial ecology of elk in the Northern Great Plains while highlighting the need for enhanced international cooperative management efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is of utmost importance to research on the spatial patterns of human-wildlife conflicts to understand the underlying mechanism of such interactions, i.e. major land use changes and prominent ecological drivers. In the north eastern part of India there has been a disparity between nature, economic development and fragmentation of wildlife habitats leading to intense conflicts between humans and Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) in recent times. Both the elephant and human population have increased in the past few decades with large tracts of forests converted to commercial tea plantations, army camps and human settlements. We analyzed data maintained by the wildlife department on human deaths and injuries caused by elephant attacks between 2006–2016 to understand spatial and temporal patterns of human-elephant conflict, frequency and distribution. The average annual number of human deaths and injuries to elephant attacks between 2006 to 2016 was estimated to be 212 (SE 103) with the highest number of such incidents recorded in 2010–2011. Based on a grid based design of 5 km2 and 25 km2 resolution, the main spatial predictors of human-elephant conflicts identified through Maxent presence only models are annual mean precipitation, altitude, distance from protected area, area under forests, tea plantations and agriculture. Major land use changes were assessed for this region from 2008 to 2018 using satellite imageries in Arc GIS and a predicted imagery of 2028 was prepared using Idrisi Selva. Based on the 2018 imagery it was found that forest area had increased by 446 km2 within 10 years (2008–2018) and the annual rate of change was 12%. Area under agriculture had reduced by 128 km2 with an annual (-) rate of change of 2.5%. Area under tea plantation declined by 307 km2 with an annual (-) rate of change of 12% whereas area under human settlements increased by 61 km2 with an annual (-) rate of change of 44%. Hotspots of human-elephant conflicts were identified in an east west direction primarily around protected areas, tea plantations and along major riverine corridors. During informal interactions with farmers, tea estate labors it was revealed that local community members chased and harassed elephants from agriculture fields, human settlements under the influence of alcohol and thus were primary victims of fatal interactions. Our analytical approach can be replicated for other species in sites with similar issues of human-wildlife conflicts. The hotspot maps of conflict risk will help in developing appropriate mitigation strategies such as setting up early warning systems, restoration of wildlife corridors especially along dry river beds, using deterrents and barriers for vulnerable. Awareness about alcohol related incidents and basic biology of elephants should be organized regularly involving non-governmental organizations targeting the marginalized farmers and tea estate workers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A recent global trend toward retirement of farmland presents opportunities to reclaim habitat for threatened and endangered species. We examine habitat restoration opportunities in one of the world’s most converted landscapes, California’s San Joaquin Desert (SJD). Despite the presence of 35 threatened and endangered species, agricultural expansion continues to drive habitat loss in the SJD, even as marginal farmland is retired. Over the next decades a combination of factors, including salinization, climate change, and historical groundwater overdraft, are projected to lead to the retirement of more than 2,000 km2 of farmland in the SJD. To promote strategic habitat protection and restoration, we conducted a quantitative assessment of habitat loss and fragmentation, habitat suitability, climatic niche stability, climate change impacts, habitat protection, and reintroduction opportunities for an umbrella species of the SJD, the endangered blunt-nosed leopard lizard (Gambelia sila). We use our suitability models, in conjunction with modern and historical land use maps, to estimate the historical and modern rate of habitat loss to development. The estimated amount of habitat lost since the species became protected under endangered species law in 1967 is greater than the total amount of habitat currently protected through public ownership and conservation easement. We document climatic niche contraction and associated range contraction away from the more mesic margins of the species’ historical distribution, driven by the anthropogenic introduction of exotic grasses and forbs. The impact of exotic species on G. sila range dynamics appears to be still unfolding. Finally, we use NASA fallowed area maps to identify 610 km2 of fallowed or retired agricultural land with high potential to again serve as habitat. We discuss conservation strategies in light of the potential for habitat restoration and multiple drivers of ongoing and historical habitat loss. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the effects of improved market accessibility on agricultural land use and basic wellbeing, defined by income and rice sufficiency, in Xayaburi province, Lao PDR through a meso-scale and actor-oriented approach with data collection at both district and household level. It also investigates farmers’ decision-making as it relates to regional markets. Increasing market accessibility in rural areas facilitates cash crop trade leading to agrarian change from subsistence to commercial agricultural systems. This transformation raises concerns about food security and vulnerability to market uncertainties as farmers are likely to grow cash crops intensively and in place of food crops, leading to lower food production. Meanwhile incomes from cash crop trade are highly vulnerable to market uncertainties. We found that farmers in the south of Xayaburi, where market accessibility is higher than in the north, primarily grow cash crops and do not suffer from rice insufficiency while farmers in the north, where market accessibility is lower, rely more on subsistence agriculture and have a lower level of basic wellbeing. The major factors of better basic wellbeing in the south include: (1) better market accessibility which can mitigate the risks of market uncertainty and create enough income to compensate for and overcome losses in rice production, (2) availability of more arable land due to a larger amount of level terrain which allows farmers to expand cash crop cultivation and continue growing rice at the same time, and (3) farmer strategy to keep a part of their land for growing rice to meet their minimum consumption needs and prevent the risks of rice insufficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: European forests have a long record of management. However, the diversity of the current forest management across nations, tree species and owners, is hardly understood. Often when trying to simulate future forest resources under alternative futures, simply the yield table style of harvesting is applied. It is now crucially important to come to grips with actual forest management, now that demand for wood is increasing and the EU Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry Regulation has been adopted requiring ‘continuation of current management practices’ as a baseline to set the Forest Reference Level carbon sink. Methods: Based on a large dataset of 714,000 re-measured trees in National Forest inventories from 13 regions, we are now able to analyse actual forest harvesting. Conclusions: From this large set of repeated tree measurements we can conclude that there is no such thing as yield table harvesting in Europe. We found general trends of increasing harvest probability with higher productivity of the region and the species, but with important deviations related to local conditions like site accessibility, state of the forest resource (like age), specific subsidies, importance of other forest services, and ownership of the forest. As a result, we find a huge diversity in harvest regimes. Over the time period covered in our inventories, the average harvest probability over all regions was 2.4% yr-1 (in number of trees) and the mortality probability was 0.4% yr-1. Our study provides underlying and most actual data that can serve as a basis for quantifying ‘continuation of current forest management’. It can be used as a cornerstone for the base period as required for the Forest Reference Level for EU Member States. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Habitat loss is the greatest threat to biodiversity in Borneo, and to anticipate and combat its effects it is important to predict the pattern of loss and its consequences. Borneo is a region of extremely high biodiversity from which forest is being lost faster than in any other. The little-known Sunda clouded leopard (Neofelis diardi) is the top predator in Borneo and is likely to depend critically on habitat connectivity that is currently being rapidly lost to deforestation. We modeled the effects of landscape fragmentation on population size, genetic diversity and population connectivity for the Sunda clouded leopard across the entirety of Borneo. We modelled the impacts of land use change between the years 2000, 2010 and projected forwards to 2020. We found substantial reductions across all metrics between 2000 and 2010: the proportion of landscape connected by dispersal fell by approximately 12.5% and the largest patch size declined by around 15.1%, leading to a predicted 11.4% decline in clouded leopard numbers. We also predict that these trends will accelerate greatly towards 2020, with the percentage of the landscape being connected by dispersal falling by about 57.8%, the largest patch size falling by around 62.8% and the predicted clouded leopard population falling by 62.5% between 2010 and 2020. We predicted that these large declines in clouded leopard population size and connectivity will also substantially reduce the genetic diversity of the remaining clouded leopard population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urban agriculture has become a common form of urban land use in European cities linked to multiple environmental, social and economic benefits, as well as to diversified forms (from self-production allotments to high-tech companies). Social acceptance will determine the development of urban agriculture and specific knowledge on citizens’ perception is required in order to set the basis for policy-making and planning. The ecosystem services provided by urban agriculture can be determinant in this process. The goal of this paper is to evaluate the social acceptance and the perceived ecosystem services of urban agriculture in the city of Bologna (Italy), as an example of a Southern European city. In particular, we evaluated the preferences for urban land uses, for different typologies of urban agriculture and for the resulting products, the perceived provision of ecosystem services and the willingness to engage in new initiatives. A survey that investigated these topics (including open questions, closed questions and Likert-scale evaluation) was performed on the citizens of Bologna (n = 380) between October and November 2016. Results showed that urban agriculture is widely accepted by the inhabitants of Bologna, particularly regarding vegetable production. Although intensive farming systems were the least preferred forms to be implemented in Bologna, citizens highly accepted a large variety of urban agriculture goods, with preference for those obtained from plants as compared to animal products. The willingness-to-pay for urban food products was mostly the same as for conventional ones, although the participants recognised the social values, proximity and quality of the former. Socio-cultural ecosystem services were perceived as more valuable than environmental ones. Policy-making recommendations can be extracted from the results to facilitate the development of urban agriculture plans and policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

European managed grasslands are amongst the most productive in the world. Besides temperature and the amount and timing of precipitation, grass production is also highly controlled by applications of nitrogen fertilizers and land management to sustain a high productivity. Since management characteristics of pastures vary greatly across Europe, land-use intensity and their projections are critical input variables in earth system modeling when examining and predicting the effects of increasingly intensified agricultural and livestock systems on the environment. In this study, we aim to improve the representation of pastures in the dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-GUESS. This is done by incorporating daily carbon allocation for grasses as a foundation to further implement daily land management routines and land-use intensity data into the model to discriminate between intensively and extensively used regions. We further compare our new simulations with leaf area index observations, reported regional grassland productivity, and simulations conducted with the vegetation model ORCHIDEE-GM. Additionally, we analyze the implications of including pasture fertilization and daily management compared to the standard version of LPJ-GUESS. Our results demonstrate that grassland productivity cannot be adequately captured without including land-use intensity data in form of nitrogen applications. Using this type of information improved spatial patterns of grassland productivity significantly compared to standard LPJ-GUESS. In general, simulations for net primary productivity, net ecosystem carbon balance and nitrogen leaching were considerably increased in the extended version. Finally, the adapted version of LPJ-GUESS, driven with projections of climate and land-use intensity, simulated an increase in potential grassland productivity until 2050 for several agro-climatic regions, most notably for the Mediterranean North, the Mediterranean South, the Atlantic Central and the Atlantic South. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper compares land use patterns of mestizo colonists and indigenous populations in the central Ecuadorian Amazon, based on data from a household survey covering mestizo colonist, Kichwa and Shuar households. As expected, colonists mostly engage in commercial agriculture and cattle ranching, but there are substantial differences in land use patterns between the Shuar and the Kichwa. The Shuar engage in cash cropping and cattle ranching, and on average, devote even more land to agricultural uses than mestizo colonists in this sample. In contrast, the Kichwa engage more in subsistence crop production and less in commercial agriculture. Such different patterns appear related to local conditions, earlier migratory and settlement patterns, and the level of exposure to markets. The implications of this for policy are explored in the conclusions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the extirpation of tigers from the Indonesian island of Java in the 1980s, the endemic and Critically Endangered Javan leopard is the island’s last remaining large carnivore. Yet despite this, it has received little conservation attention and its population status and distribution remains poorly known. Using Maxent modeling, we predicted the locations of suitable leopard landscapes throughout the island of Java based on 228 verified Javan leopard samples and as a function of seven environmental variables. The identified landscapes covered over 1 million hectares, representing less than 9% of the island. Direct evidence of Javan leopard was confirmed from 22 of the 29 identified landscapes and included all national parks, which our analysis revealed as the single most important land type. Our study also emphasized the importance of maintaining connectivity between protected areas and human-modified landscapes because adjacent production forests and secondary forests were found to provide vital extensions for several Javan leopard subpopulations. Our predictive map greatly improves those previously produced by the Government of Indonesia’s Javan Leopard Action Plan and the IUCN global leopard distribution assessment. It shares only a 32% overlap with the IUCN range predictions, adds six new priority landscapes, all with confirmed presence of Javan leopard, and reveals an island-wide leopard population that occurs in several highly fragmented landscapes, which are far more isolated than previously thought. Our study provides reliable information on where conservation efforts must be prioritized both inside and outside of the protected area network to safeguard Java’s last remaining large carnivore. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Through their dam-building activities and subsequent water storage, beaver have the potential to restore riparian ecosystems and offset some of the predicted effects of climate change by modulating streamflow. Thus, it is not surprising that reintroducing beaver to watersheds from which they have been extirpated is an often-used restoration and climate-adaptation strategy. Identifying sites for reintroduction, however, requires detailed information about habitat factors—information that is not often available at broad spatial scales. Here we explore the potential for beaver relocation throughout the Snohomish River Basin in Washington, USA with a model that identifies some of the basic building blocks of beaver habitat suitability and does so by relying solely on remotely sensed data. More specifically, we developed a generalized intrinsic potential model that draws on remotely sensed measures of stream gradient, stream width, and valley width to identify where beaver could become established if suitable vegetation were to be present. Thus, the model serves as a preliminary screening tool that can be applied over relatively large extents. We applied the model to 5,019 stream km and assessed the ability of the model to correctly predict beaver habitat by surveying for beavers in 352 stream reaches. To further assess the potential for relocation, we assessed land ownership, use, and land cover in the landscape surrounding stream reaches with varying levels of intrinsic potential. Model results showed that 33% of streams had moderate or high intrinsic potential for beaver habitat. We found that no site that was classified as having low intrinsic potential had any sign of beavers and that beaver were absent from nearly three quarters of potentially suitable sites, indicating that there are factors preventing the local population from occupying these areas. Of the riparian areas around streams with high intrinsic potential for beaver, 38% are on public lands and 17% are on large tracts of privately-owned timber land. Thus, although there are a large number of areas that could be suitable for relocation and restoration using beavers, current land use patterns may substantially limit feasibility in these areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vitellaria paradoxa (Gaertn C. F.), or shea tree, remains one of the most valuable trees for farmers in the Atacora district of northern Benin, where rural communities depend on shea products for both food and income. To optimize productivity and management of shea agroforestry systems, or "parklands," accurate and up-to-date data are needed. For this purpose, we monitored120 fruiting shea trees for two years under three land-use scenarios and different soil groups in Atacora, coupled with a farm household survey to elicit information on decision making and management practices. To examine the local pattern of shea tree productivity and relationships between morphological factors and yields, we used a randomized branch sampling method and applied a regression analysis to build a shea yield model based on dendrometric, soil and land-use variables. We also compared potential shea yields based on farm household socio-economic characteristics and management practices derived from the survey data. Soil and land-use variables were the most important determinants of shea fruit yield. In terms of land use, shea trees growing on farmland plots exhibited the highest yields (i.e., fruit quantity and mass) while trees growing on Lixisols performed better than those of the other soil group. Contrary to our expectations, dendrometric parameters had weak relationships with fruit yield regardless of land-use and soil group. There is an inter-annual variability in fruit yield in both soil groups and land-use type. In addition to observed inter-annual yield variability, there was a high degree of variability in production among individual shea trees. Furthermore, household socioeconomic characteristics such as road accessibility, landholding size, and gross annual income influence shea fruit yield. The use of fallow areas is an important land management practice in the study area that influences both conservation and shea yield. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although numerous studies have demonstrated the key role of bacterial diversity in soil functions and ecosystem services, little is known about the variations and determinants of such diversity on a nationwide scale. The overall objectives of this study were i) to describe the bacterial taxonomic richness variations across France, ii) to identify the ecological processes (i.e. selection by the environment and dispersal limitation) influencing this distribution, and iii) to develop a statistical predictive model of soil bacterial richness. We used the French Soil Quality Monitoring Network (RMQS), which covers all of France with 2,173 sites. The soil bacterial richness (i.e. OTU number) was determined by pyrosequencing 16S rRNA genes and related to the soil characteristics, climatic conditions, geomorphology, land use and space. Mapping of bacterial richness revealed a heterogeneous spatial distribution, structured into patches of about 111km, where the main drivers were the soil physico-chemical properties (18% of explained variance), the spatial descriptors (5.25%, 1.89% and 1.02% for the fine, medium and coarse scales, respectively), and the land use (1.4%). Based on these drivers, a predictive model was developed, which allows a good prediction of the bacterial richness (R2adj of 0.56) and provides a reference value for a given pedoclimatic condition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Little is known about the levels of exposure to grass pollen in urban environments. We assessed the spatio-temporal variation of grass pollen concentrations and the role of urbanity as a determinant of grass pollen exposure in the Helsinki Metropolitan area. We monitored grass pollen concentrations in 2013 at 16 sites during the peak pollen season by using rotorod-type samplers at the breathing height. The sites were in the cities of Helsinki and Espoo, Finland, and formed city-specific lines that represented urban-rural gradient. The monitoring sites were both visually and based on land use data ranked as high to low (graded 1 to 8) pollen area. The lowest grass pollen concentrations were observed in the most urban sites compared to the least urban sites (mean 3.6 vs. 6.8 grains/m3 in Helsinki; P<0.0001, and 5.2 vs. 87.5 grains/m3 in Espoo; P<0.0001). Significant differences were observed between concentrations measured in morning periods compared to afternoon periods (4.9 vs. 5.4 in Helsinki, P = 0.0186, and 21.8 vs. 67.1 in Espoo, P = 0.0004). The mean pollen concentration increased with decreasing urbanity both in Helsinki (0.59 grains/m3 per urbanity rank, 95% CI 0.25–0.93) and Espoo (8.42, 6.23–10.61). Pollen concentrations were highest in the afternoons and they were related to the ambient temperature. Urbanity was a strong and significant determinant of pollen exposure in two Finnish cities. Pollen exposure can periodically reach such high levels even in the most urban environments that can cause allergic reactions among individuals with allergies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dengue has been a major public health concern in Australia. This study has explored the spatio-temporal trends of dengue and potential socio- demographic and ecological determinants in Australia. Data on dengue cases, socio-demographic, climatic and land use types for the period January 1999 to December 2010 were collected from Australian National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, and Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, respectively. Descriptive and linear regression analyses were performed to observe the spatio-temporal trends of dengue, socio-demographic and ecological factors in Australia. A total of 5,853 dengue cases (both local and overseas acquired) were recorded across Australia between January 1999 and December 2010. Most the cases (53.0%) were reported from Queensland, followed by New South Wales (16.5%). Dengue outbreak was highest (54.2%) during 2008–2010. A highest percentage of overseas arrivals (29.9%), households having rainwater tanks (33.9%), Indigenous population (27.2%), separate houses (26.5%), terrace house types (26.9%) and economically advantage people (42.8%) were also observed during 2008–2010. Regression analyses demonstrate that there was an increasing trend of dengue incidence, potential socio-ecological factors such as overseas arrivals, number of households having rainwater tanks, housing types and land use types (e.g. intensive uses and production from dryland agriculture). Spatial variation of socio-demographic factors was also observed in this study. In near future, significant increase of temperature was also projected across Australia. The projected increased temperature as well as increased socio-ecological trend may pose a future threat to the local transmission of dengue in other parts of Australia if Aedes mosquitoes are being established. Therefore, upgraded mosquito and disease surveillance at different ports should be in place to reduce the chance of mosquitoes and dengue cases being imported into all over Australia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Landscape change in and around protected areas is of concern worldwide given the potential impacts of such change on biodiversity. Given such impacts, we sought to understand the extent of changes in different land-cover types at two protected areas, Tarangire and Katavi National Parks in Tanzania, over the past 27 years. Using Maximum Likelihood classification procedures we derived eight land-cover classes from Landsat TM and ETM+ images, including: woody savannah, savannah, grassland, open and closed shrubland, swamp and water, and bare land. We determined the extent and direction of changes for all land-cover classes using a post-classification comparison technique. The results show declines in woody savannah and increases in barren land and swamps inside and outside Tarangire National Park and increases in woody savannah and savannah, and declines of shrubland and grassland inside and outside Katavi National Park. The decrease of woody savannah was partially due to its conversion into grassland and barren land, possibly caused by human encroachment by cultivation and livestock. Based upon these changes, we recommend management actions to prevent detrimental effects on wildlife populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The populations of many species that are widespread and commensal with humans have been drastically declining during the past few decades, but little attention has been paid to their conservation. Here, we report the status of the bonnet macaque, a species that is considered ‘least-concern’ for conservation. We show that the widely ranging rhesus macaque is expanding its range into the distributional range of the bonnet macaque, a species endemic only to southern India. Bonnet macaques have very low abundance in forests of all types indicating that it is not a typically forest dwelling species. The traditionally preferred habitats of bonnet macaques have been Hindu temples/ tourist spots but our data reveal that nearly 50% population of bonnet macaques has disappeared from such previously occupied spots. Another preferred habitat of bonnet macaques has been roadsides with abundant Ficus trees adjoining croplands. We found that between 2003 and 2015, the roadsides have drastically changed where vegetation has been replaced with barren lands and urbanization. Consequently, the populations of bonnet macaques have declined by more than 65% over the past 25 years, and by more than 50% between 2003 and 2015 alone. We, therefore, conclude that this ‘least-concern’ species is actually facing serious conservation challenges. We also identify a few places such as small hillocks with natural vegetation and a few temples/tourist spots which are likely to remain stable and thus can serve as ‘bonnet macaque conservation reserves’. Since the bonnet macaque shares many traits with several other commensal and ‘low-risk’ species, it can serve as a model for the development of long-term conservation strategies for most such species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Road and railway networks are pervasive elements of all environments, which have expanded intensively over the last century in all European countries. These transportation infrastructures have major impacts on the surrounding landscape, representing a threat to biodiversity. Roadsides and railways may function as corridors for dispersal of alien species in fragmented landscapes. However, only few studies have explored the spread of invasive species in relationship to transport network at large spatial scales. We performed a spatial mismatch analysis, based on a spatially explicit correlation test, to investigate whether alien plant species hotspots in Germany and Austria correspond to areas of high density of roads and railways. We tested this independently of the effects of dominant environments in each spatial unit, in order to focus just on the correlation between occurrence of alien species and density of linear transportation infrastructures. We found a significant spatial association between alien plant species hotspots distribution and roads and railways density in both countries. As expected, anthropogenic landscapes, such as urban areas, harbored more alien plant species, followed by water bodies. However, our findings suggested that the distribution of neobiota is strongest correlated to road/railways density than to land use composition. This study provides new evidence, from a transnational scale, that alien plants can use roadsides and rail networks as colonization corridors. Furthermore, our approach contributes to the understanding on alien plant species distribution at large spatial scale by the combination with spatial modeling procedures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Eutrophication and climate warming are profoundly affecting fish in many freshwater lakes. Understanding the specific effects of these stressors is critical for development of effective adaptation and remediation strategies for conserving fish populations in a changing environment. Ecological niche models that incorporated the individual effects of nutrient concentration and climate were developed for 25 species of fish sampled in standard gillnet surveys from 1,577 Minnesota lakes. Lake phosphorus concentrations and climates were hindcasted to a pre-disturbance period of 1896–1925 using existing land use models and historical temperature data. Then historical fish assemblages were reconstructed using the ecological niche models. Substantial changes were noted when reconstructed fish assemblages were compared to those from the contemporary period (1981–2010). Disentangling the sometimes opposing, sometimes compounding, effects of eutrophication and climate warming was critical for understanding changes in fish assemblages. Reconstructed abundances of eutrophication-tolerant, warmwater taxa increased in prairie lakes that experienced significant eutrophication and climate warming. Eutrophication-intolerant, warmwater taxa abundance increased in forest lakes where primarily climate warming was the stressor. Coolwater fish declined in abundance in both ecoregions. Large changes in modeled abundance occurred when the effects of both climate and eutrophication operated in the same direction for some species. Conversely, the effects of climate warming and eutrophication operated in opposing directions for other species and dampened net changes in abundance. Quantifying the specific effects of climate and eutrophication will allow water resource managers to better understand how lakes have changed and provide expectations for sustainable fish assemblages in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Shifting cultivation is the main land-use system transforming landscapes in riverine Amazonia. Increased concentration of the human population around villages and increasing market integration during the last decades may be causing agricultural intensification. Studies have shown that agricultural intensification, i.e. higher number of swidden-fallow cycles and shorter fallow periods, reduces crop productivity of swiddens and the regrowth capacity of fallows, undermining the resilience of the shifting cultivation system as a whole. We investigated the temporal and spatial dynamics of shifting cultivation in Brazilian Amazonia to test the hypotheses that (i) agriculture has become more intensive over time, and (ii) patterns of land-use intensity are related to land accessibility and human population density. We applied a breakpoint-detection algorithm to Landsat time-series spanning three decades (1984–2015) and retrieved the temporal dynamics of shifting cultivation fields, which go through alternating phases of crop production (swidden) and secondary forest regrowth (fallow). We found that fallow-period length has decreased from 6.4 to 5.1 years on average, and that expansion over old-growth forest has slowed down over time. Shorter fallow periods and higher frequency of slash and burn cycles are practiced closer to residences and around larger villages. Our results indicate that shifting cultivation in riverine Amazonia has gone through a process of agricultural intensification in the past three decades. The resulting landscape is predominantly covered by young secondary forests (≤ 12 yrs old), and 20% of it have gone through intensive use. Reversing this trend and avoiding the negative consequences of agricultural intensification requires land use planning that accounts for the constraints of land use in riverine areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Elephant crop raiding is one of the most relevant forms of human-elephant conflict (HEC) in Africa. Northern Botswana holds the largest population of African elephants in the world, and in the eastern Okavango Panhandle, 16,000 people share and compete for resources with more than 11,000 elephants. Hence, it is not surprising this area represents a HEC ‘hotspot’ in the region. Crop-raiding impacts lead to negative perceptions of elephants by local communities, which can strongly undermine conservation efforts. Therefore, assessing trends in conflict levels is essential to developing successful management strategies. In this context, we investigated the trend in the number of reported raiding incidents as one of the indicators of the level of HEC, and assessed its relationship to trends in human and elephant population size, as well as land-use in the study area. For each of these factors, we considered data spanning historical (since the 1970s) and contemporary (2008–2015) time frames, with the aim of comparing subsequent inferences on the drivers of crop raiding and predictions for the future. We find that the level of reported crop raiding by elephants in the eastern Panhandle appears to have decreased since 2008, which seems to be related to the reduction in agricultural land allocated to people in recent years, more than with human and elephant population size. We show that inferences regarding the drivers of HEC and predictions for the future are dependent on the time span of the data used. Although our study represents a first step in developing a HEC baseline in the eastern Panhandle, it highlights the need for additional multi-scale analyses that consider progress in conservation conflict to better understand and predict drivers of HEC in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

New and rapid political and economic changes in Myanmar are increasing the pressures on the country’s forests. Yet, little is known about the past and current condition of these forests and how fast they are declining. We mapped forest cover in Myanmar through a consortium of international organizations and environmental non-governmental groups, using freely-available public domain data and open source software tools. We used Landsat satellite imagery to assess the condition and spatial distribution of Myanmar’s intact and degraded forests with special focus on changes in intact forest between 2002 and 2014. We found that forests cover 42,365,729 ha or 63% of Myanmar, making it one of the most forested countries in the region. However, severe logging, expanding plantations, and degradation pose increasing threats. Only 38% of the country’s forests can be considered intact with canopy cover >80%. Between 2002 and 2014, intact forests declined at a rate of 0.94% annually, totaling more than 2 million ha forest loss. Losses can be extremely high locally and we identified 9 townships as forest conversion hotspots. We also delineated 13 large (>100,000 ha) and contiguous intact forest landscapes, which are dispersed across Myanmar. The Northern Forest Complex supports four of these landscapes, totaling over 6.1 million ha of intact forest, followed by the Southern Forest Complex with three landscapes, comprising 1.5 million ha. These remaining contiguous forest landscape should have high priority for protection. Our project demonstrates how open source data and software can be used to develop and share critical information on forests when such data are not readily available elsewhere. We provide all data, code, and outputs freely via the internet at (for scripts: ; for the data: ) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Invasive wildlife often causes serious damage to the economy and agriculture as well as environmental, human and animal health. Habitat models can fill knowledge gaps about species distributions and assist planning to mitigate impacts. Yet, model accuracy and utility may be compromised by small study areas and limited integration of species ecology or temporal variability. Here we modelled seasonal habitat suitability for wild pigs, a widespread and harmful invader, in northern Australia. We developed a resource-based, spatially-explicit and regional-scale approach using Bayesian networks and spatial pattern suitability analysis. We integrated important ecological factors such as variability in environmental conditions, breeding requirements and home range movements. The habitat model was parameterized during a structured, iterative expert elicitation process and applied to a wet season and a dry season scenario. Model performance and uncertainty was evaluated against independent distributional data sets. Validation results showed that an expert-averaged model accurately predicted empirical wild pig presences in northern Australia for both seasonal scenarios. Model uncertainty was largely associated with different expert assumptions about wild pigs’ resource-seeking home range movements. Habitat suitability varied considerably between seasons, retracting to resource-abundant rainforest, wetland and agricultural refuge areas during the dry season and expanding widely into surrounding grassland floodplains, savanna woodlands and coastal shrubs during the wet season. Overall, our model suggested that suitable wild pig habitat is less widely available in northern Australia than previously thought. Mapped results may be used to quantify impacts, assess risks, justify management investments and target control activities. Our methods are applicable to other wide-ranging species, especially in data-poor situations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: In connection to food insecurity, adaptation of new techniques or alteration of regular behavior is executed that translates to coping strategies. This paper has used data from food security and nutrition surveillance project (FSNSP), which collects information from a nationally representative sample in Bangladesh on coping behaviors associated with household food insecurity. To complement the current understanding of different coping strategies implemented by the Bangladeshi households, the objective of this paper has been set to examine the demographic and socio-economic characteristics of the food insecure households which define their propensity towards adaptation of different types of coping strategies. Methodology: FSNSP follows a repeated cross-sectional survey design. Information of 23,374 food insecure households available from February 2011 to November 2013 was selected for the analyses. Coping strategies were categorized as financial, food compromised and both. Multinomial logistic regression was employed to draw inference. Results: Majority of the households were significantly more inclined to adopt both multiple financial and food compromisation coping strategies. Post-aman season, educational status of the household head and household women, occupation of the household’s main earner, household income, food insecurity status, asset, size and possession of agricultural land were found to be independently and significantly associated with adaptation of both financial and food compromisation coping strategies relative to only financial coping strategies. The relative risk ratio of adopting food compromisation coping relative to financial coping strategies when compared to mildly food insecure households, was 4.54 times higher for households with moderate food insecurity but 0.3 times lower when the households were severely food insecure. Whereas, households were 8.04 times and 4.98 times more likely to adopt both food compromisation and financial relative to only financial coping strategies if moderately and severely food insecure respectively when compared to being mildly food insecure. Conclusion: Households suffering from moderate and severe food insecurity, are more likely to adopt both financial and food compromisation coping strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Measurement, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) systems are thought to be essential for effective carbon accounting and joint REDD+ carbon, conservation, and social development goals. Community participation in MRV (PMRV) has been shown to be both cost effective and accurate, as well as a method to potentially advance stakeholder empowerment and perceptions of legitimacy. Recognizing land tenure as a long-standing point of tension in REDD+ planning, we argue that its engagement also has a key role to play in developing a legitimate PMRV. Using household surveys, key informant interviews, and participatory mapping exercises, we present three ‘lived’ land tenure contexts in Indonesia to highlight their socially and ecologically situated natures and to consider the role of tenure pluralism in shaping PMRV. We then raise and interrogate three questions for incorporating lived land tenure contexts into a legitimate PMRV system: 1) Who holds the right to conduct PMRV activities?; 2) How are the impacts of PMRV differentially distributed within local communities?; and 3) What is the relationship between tenure security and motivation to participate in PMRV? We conclude with implementation lessons for REDD+ practitioners, including the benefits of collaborative practices, and point to critical areas for further research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Much biodiversity lives on lands to which Indigenous people retain strong legal and management rights. However this is rarely quantified. Here we provide the first quantitative overview of the importance of Indigenous land for a critical and vulnerable part of biodiversity, threatened species, using the continent of Australia as a case study. We find that three quarters of Australia’s 272 terrestrial or freshwater vertebrate species listed as threatened under national legislation have projected ranges that overlap Indigenous lands. On average this overlap represents 45% of the range of each threatened species while Indigenous land is 52% of the country. Hotspots where multiple threatened species ranges overlap occur predominantly in coastal Northern Australia. Our analysis quantifies the vast potential of Indigenous land in Australia for contributing to national level conservation goals, and identifies the main land management arrangements available to Indigenous people which may enable them to deliver those goals should they choose to do so. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As climate change is expected to have a significant impact on species distributions, there is an urgent challenge to provide reliable information to guide conservation biodiversity policies. In addressing this challenge, we propose a remote sensing-based approach to forecast the future habitat quality for European badger, a species not abundant and at risk of local extinction in the arid environments of southeastern Spain, by incorporating environmental variables related with the ecosystem functioning and correlated with climate and land use. Using ensemble prediction methods, we designed global spatial distribution models for the distribution range of badger using presence-only data and climate variables. Then, we constructed regional models for an arid region in the southeast Spain using EVI (Enhanced Vegetation Index) derived variables and weighting the pseudo-absences with the global model projections applied to this region. Finally, we forecast the badger potential spatial distribution in the time period 2071–2099 based on IPCC scenarios incorporating the uncertainty derived from the predicted values of EVI-derived variables. By including remotely sensed descriptors of the temporal dynamics and spatial patterns of ecosystem functioning into spatial distribution models, results suggest that future forecast is less favorable for European badgers than not including them. In addition, change in spatial pattern of habitat suitability may become higher than when forecasts are based just on climate variables. Since the validity of future forecast only based on climate variables is currently questioned, conservation policies supported by such information could have a biased vision and overestimate or underestimate the potential changes in species distribution derived from climate change. The incorporation of ecosystem functional attributes derived from remote sensing in the modeling of future forecast may contribute to the improvement of the detection of ecological responses under climate change scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human footprint models allow visualization of human spatial pressure across the globe. Up until now, Antarctica has been omitted from global footprint models, due possibly to the lack of a permanent human population and poor accessibility to necessary datasets. Yet Antarctic ecosystems face increasing cumulative impacts from the expanding tourism industry and national Antarctic operator activities, the management of which could be improved with footprint assessment tools. Moreover, Antarctic ecosystem dynamics could be modelled to incorporate human drivers. Here we present the first model of estimated human footprint across predominantly ice-free areas of Antarctica. To facilitate integration into global models, the Antarctic model was created using methodologies applied elsewhere with land use, density and accessibility features incorporated. Results showed that human pressure is clustered predominantly in the Antarctic Peninsula, southern Victoria Land and several areas of East Antarctica. To demonstrate the practical application of the footprint model, it was used to investigate the potential threat to Antarctica’s avifauna by local human activities. Relative footprint values were recorded for all 204 of Antarctica’s Important Bird Areas (IBAs) identified by BirdLife International and the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR). Results indicated that formal protection of avifauna under the Antarctic Treaty System has been unsystematic and is lacking for penguin and flying bird species in some of the IBAs most vulnerable to human activity and impact. More generally, it is hoped that use of this human footprint model may help Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meeting policy makers in their decision making concerning avifauna protection and other issues including cumulative impacts, environmental monitoring, non-native species and terrestrial area protection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Remote sensing has been widely used for mapping land cover and is considered key to monitoring changes in forest areas in the REDD+ Measurement, Reporting and Verification (MRV) system. But Remote Sensing as a desk study cannot capture the whole picture; it also requires ground checking. Therefore, complementing remote sensing analysis using participatory mapping can help provide information for an initial forest cover assessment, gain better understanding of how local land use might affect changes, and provide a way to engage local communities in REDD+. Our study looked at the potential of participatory mapping in providing complementary information for remotely sensed maps. The research sites were located in different ecological and socio-economic contexts in the provinces of Papua, West Kalimantan and Central Java, Indonesia. Twenty-one maps of land cover and land use were drawn with local community participation during focus group discussions in seven villages. These maps, covering a total of 270,000ha, were used to add information to maps developed using remote sensing, adding 39 land covers to the eight from our initial desk assessment. They also provided additional information on drivers of land use and land cover change, resource areas, territory claims and land status, which we were able to correlate to understand changes in forest cover. Incorporating participatory mapping in the REDD+ MRV protocol would help with initial remotely sensed land classifications, stratify an area for ground checks and measurement plots, and add other valuable social data not visible at the RS scale. Ultimately, it would provide a forum for local communities to discuss REDD+ activities and develop a better understanding of REDD+. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Indigenous plant use-systems have evolved under, and constantly adapted to human and non-human impacts. In the last decades however, increasing socioeconomic and cultural transformations, including land-use change, outmigration, globalized markets, the introduction of new species, and climate change have led to a decreasing availability of indigenous resources, and are ultimately leading to a reduction of local use-knowledge. Participant observations, discussions, walks-in-the-woods, semi-structured interviews and informal meetings were carried out in 12 villages of far western Nepal between 2011 and 2015 to assess how sociocultural changes have affected the sustenance of indigenous systems and local biodiversity, when compared to studies carried out in the previous decades. Our findings show that there were no statistically significant differences in subject variable means, but differences were relatively important to plant parts-use and plant growth-forms (p = 0.183 and 0.088 respectively). Cissampelos pareira, Acorus calamus, Calotropis gigantea were found to have the greatest relative importance, whereas Ageratina adenophora, Melia azedarach, Carum carvi were most important based on use values. Among them, C. pareira and A. adenophora were introduced. The spatial distribution of species collected for medicine showed that all habitats were important for collection however, habitats close to villages were more favored. The use of non-indigenous and easily available species and more accessible habitats is becoming more prevalent as primary forests become increasingly overexploited, indigenous species become limited, and sociocultural cause of land use change expand. The utilization of indigenous and non-indigenous species and nearby habitats, although possibly affecting the quality of medicinal species, nonetheless reveals the dynamism of indigenous medicines as an adaptive asset mitigating human and non-human environmental changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: EuroAmerican land-use and its legacies have transformed forest structure and composition across the United States (US). More accurate reconstructions of historical states are critical to understanding the processes governing past, current, and future forest dynamics. Here we present new gridded (8x8km) reconstructions of pre-settlement (1800s) forest composition and structure from the upper Midwestern US (Minnesota, Wisconsin, and most of Michigan), using 19th Century Public Land Survey System (PLSS), with estimates of relative composition, above-ground biomass, stem density, and basal area for 28 tree types. This mapping is more robust than past efforts, using spatially varying correction factors to accommodate sampling design, azimuthal censoring, and biases in tree selection. Changes in Forest Structure: We compare pre-settlement to modern forests using US Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data to show the prevalence of lost forests (pre-settlement forests with no current analog), and novel forests (modern forests with no past analogs). Differences between pre-settlement and modern forests are spatially structured owing to differences in land-use impacts and accompanying ecological responses. Modern forests are more homogeneous, and ecotonal gradients are more diffuse today than in the past. Novel forest assemblages represent 28% of all FIA cells, and 28% of pre-settlement forests no longer exist in a modern context. Lost forests include tamarack forests in northeastern Minnesota, hemlock and cedar dominated forests in north-central Wisconsin and along the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, and elm, oak, basswood and ironwood forests along the forest-prairie boundary in south central Minnesota and eastern Wisconsin. Novel FIA forest assemblages are distributed evenly across the region, but novelty shows a strong relationship to spatial distance from remnant forests in the upper Midwest, with novelty predicted at between 20 to 60km from remnants, depending on historical forest type. The spatial relationships between remnant and novel forests, shifts in ecotone structure and the loss of historic forest types point to significant challenges for land managers if landscape restoration is a priority. The spatial signals of novelty and ecological change also point to potential challenges in using modern spatial distributions of species and communities and their relationship to underlying geophysical and climatic attributes in understanding potential responses to changing climate. The signal of human settlement on modern forests is broad, spatially varying and acts to homogenize modern forests relative to their historic counterparts, with significant implications for future management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research on the spatial patterns of human-wildlife conflict is fundamental to understanding the mechanisms underlying it and to identifying opportunities for mitigation. In the state of Xishuangbanna, containing China’s largest tropical forest, an imbalance between nature conservation and economic development has led to increasing conflicts between humans and Asian elephants (Elephas maximus), as both elephant numbers and conversion of habitable land to rubber plantations have increased over the last several decades. We analyzed government data on the compensation costs of elephant-caused damage in Xishuangbanna between 2008 and 2012 to understand the spatial and temporal patterns of conflict, in terms of their occurrence, frequency and distribution. More than 18,261 incidents were reported, including episodes involving damage to rubber trees (n = 10,999), damage to crops such as paddy, upland rice, corn, bananas and sugarcane (n = 11,020), property loss (n = 689) and attacks on humans (n = 19). The conflict data reconfirmed the presence of elephants in areas which have lacked records since the late 1990s. Zero Altered Negative Binomial models revealed that the risk of damage to crops and plantations increased with proximity to protected areas, increasing distance from roads, and lower settlement density. The patterns were constant across seasons and types of crop damaged. Damage to rubber trees was essentially incidental as elephants searched for crops to eat. A predictive map of risks revealed hotspots of conflict within and around protected areas, the last refuges for elephants in the region, and along habitat corridors connecting them. Additionally, we analyzed how mitigation efforts can best diminish the risk of conflict while minimizing financial costs and adverse biological impacts. Our analytical approach can be adopted, adjusted and expanded to other areas with historical records of human-wildlife conflict. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wildfires are becoming increasingly dominant in tropical landscapes due to reinforcing feedbacks between land cover change and more severe dry conditions. This study focused on the Bolivian Chiquitania, a region located at the southern edge of Amazonia. The extensive, unique and well-conserved tropical dry forest in this region is susceptible to wildfires due to a marked seasonality. We used a novel approach to assess fire risk at the regional level driven by different development trajectories interacting with changing climatic conditions. Possible future risk scenarios were simulated using maximum entropy modelling with presence-only data, combining land cover, anthropogenic and climatic variables. We found that important determinants of fire risk in the region are distance to roads, recent deforestation and density of human settlements. Severely dry conditions alone increased the area of high fire risk by 69%, affecting all categories of land use and land cover. Interactions between extreme dry conditions and rapid frontier expansion further increased fire risk, resulting in potential biomass loss of 2.44±0.8 Tg in high risk area, about 1.8 times higher than the estimates for the 2010 drought. These interactions showed particularly high fire risk in land used for ‘extensive cattle ranching’, ‘agro-silvopastoral use’ and ‘intensive cattle ranching and agriculture’. These findings have serious implications for subsistence activities and the economy in the Chiquitania, which greatly depend on the forestry, agriculture and livestock sectors. Results are particularly concerning if considering the current development policies promoting frontier expansion. Departmental protected areas inhibited wildfires when strategically established in areas of high risk, even under drought conditions. However, further research is needed to assess their effectiveness accounting for more specific contextual factors. This novel and simple modelling approach can inform fire and land management decisions in the Chiquitania and other tropical forest landscapes to better anticipate and manage large wildfires in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Micronutrient deficiency remains a serious problem in Indonesia with approximately 100 million people, or 40% of the population, suffering from one or more micronutrient deficiencies. In rural areas with poor market access, forests and trees may provide an essential source of nutritious food. This is especially important to understand at a time when forests and other tree-based systems in Indonesia are being lost at unprecedented rates. We use food consumption data from the 2003 Indonesia Demographic Health Survey for children between the ages of one and five years and data on vegetation cover from the Indonesian Ministry of Forestry to examine whether there is a relationship between different tree-dominated land classes and consumption of micronutrient-rich foods across the archipelago. We run our models on the aggregate sample which includes over 3000 observations from 25 provinces across Indonesia as well as on sub-samples from different provinces chosen to represent the different land classes. The results show that different tree-dominated land classes were associated with the dietary quality of people living within them in the provinces where they were dominant. Areas of swidden/agroforestry, natural forest, timber and agricultural tree crop plantations were all associated with more frequent consumption of food groups rich in micronutrients in the areas where these were important land classes. The swidden/agroforestry land class was the landscape associated with more frequent consumption of the largest number of micronutrient rich food groups. Further research needs to be done to establish what the mechanisms are that underlie these associations. Swidden cultivation in is often viewed as a backward practice that is an impediment to food security in Indonesia and destructive of the environment. If further research corroborates that swidden farming actually results in better nutrition than the practices that replace it, Indonesian policy makers may need to reconsider their views on this land use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human population growth and concomitant increases in demand for natural resources pose threats to many wildlife populations. The landscapes used by the endangered snow leopard (Panthera uncia) and their prey is increasingly subject to major changes in land use. We aimed to assess the influence of 1) key human activities, as indicated by the presence of mining and livestock herding, and 2) the presence of a key prey species, the blue sheep (Pseudois nayaur), on probability of snow leopard site use across the landscape. In Gansu Province, China, we conducted sign surveys in 49 grid cells, each of 16 km2 in size, within a larger area of 3392 km2. We analysed the data using likelihood-based habitat occupancy models that explicitly account for imperfect detection and spatial auto-correlation between survey transect segments. The model-averaged estimate of snow leopard occupancy was high [0.75 (SE 0.10)], but only marginally higher than the naïve estimate (0.67). Snow leopard segment-level probability of detection, given occupancy on a 500 m spatial replicate, was also high [0.68 (SE 0.08)]. Prey presence was the main determinant of snow leopard site use, while human disturbances, in the form of mining and herding, had low predictive power. These findings suggest that snow leopards continue to use areas very close to such disturbances, as long as there is sufficient prey. Improved knowledge about the effect of human activity on large carnivores, which require large areas and intact prey populations, is urgently needed for conservation planning at the local and global levels. We highlight a number of methodological considerations that should guide the design of such research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sedimentation in the sea occurs through natural processes, such as wave and tidal action, which can be exacerbated during storms and floods. Changes in terrestrial land use, marine aggregate extraction, dredging, drilling and mining are known to result in substantial sediment deposition. Research suggests that deposition will also occur due to the modern development of marine renewable energy. The response to individual burial under three depths of sediment, three sediment fractions and five burial durations was investigated in two mussel species, Modiolus modiolus and Mytilus edulis in specialist mesocosms. Both mussel species showed substantial mortality, which increased with duration of burial and burial by finer sediment fractions. M. modiolus was better able to survive short periods of burial than M. edulis, but at longer durations mortality was more pronounced. No mortality was observed in M. modiolus in burial durations of eight days or less but by 16 days of burial, over 50% cumulative mortality occurred. Under variable temperature regimes, M. edulis mortality increased from 20% at 8°C to over 60% at 14.5 and 20°C. Only M. edulis was able to emerge from burial, facilitated by increased byssus production, laid mostly on vertical surfaces but also on sediment particles. Emergence was higher from coarse sediment and shallow burials. Byssus production in M. edulis was not related to the condition index of the mussels. Results suggest that even marginal burial would result in mortality and be more pronounced in warm summer periods. Our results suggest that in the event of burial, adult M. modiolus would not be able to emerge from burial unless local hydrodynamics assist, whereas a small proportion of M. edulis may regain contact with the sediment water interface. The physiological stress resulting in mortality, contribution of local hydrodynamics to survival and other ecological pressures such as mussels existing in aggregations, are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a gridded 8 km-resolution data product of the estimated composition of tree taxa at the time of Euro-American settlement of the northeastern United States and the statistical methodology used to produce the product from trees recorded by land surveyors. Composition is defined as the proportion of stems larger than approximately 20 cm diameter at breast height for 22 tree taxa, generally at the genus level. The data come from settlement-era public survey records that are transcribed and then aggregated spatially, giving count data. The domain is divided into two regions, eastern (Maine to Ohio) and midwestern (Indiana to Minnesota). Public Land Survey point data in the midwestern region (ca. 0.8-km resolution) are aggregated to a regular 8 km grid, while data in the eastern region, from Town Proprietor Surveys, are aggregated at the township level in irregularly-shaped local administrative units. The product is based on a Bayesian statistical model fit to the count data that estimates composition on the 8 km grid across the entire domain. The statistical model is designed to handle data from both the regular grid and the irregularly-shaped townships and allows us to estimate composition at locations with no data and to smooth over noise caused by limited counts in locations with data. Critically, the model also allows us to quantify uncertainty in our composition estimates, making the product suitable for applications employing data assimilation. We expect this data product to be useful for understanding the state of vegetation in the northeastern United States prior to large-scale Euro-American settlement. In addition to specific regional questions, the data product can also serve as a baseline against which to investigate how forests and ecosystems change after intensive settlement. The data product is being made available at the NIS data portal as version 1.0. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Perennial cellulosic feedstocks may have potential to reduce life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by offsetting fossil fuels. However, this potential depends on meeting a number of important criteria involving land cover change, including avoiding displacement of agricultural production, not reducing uncultivated natural lands that provide biodiversity habitat and other valued ecosystem services, and avoiding the carbon debt (the amount of time needed to repay the initial carbon loss) that accompanies displacing natural lands. It is unclear whether recent agricultural expansion in the United States competes with lands potentially suited for bioenergy feedstocks. Here, we evaluate how recent land cover change (2008–2013) has affected the availability of lands potentially suited for bioenergy feedstock production in the U.S. Lake States (Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan) and its impact on other natural ecosystems. The region is potentially well suited for a diversity of bioenergy production systems, both grasses and woody biomass, due to the widespread forest economy in the north and agricultural economy in the south. Based on remotely-sensed data, our results show that between 2008 and 2013, 836,000 ha of non-agricultural open lands were already converted to agricultural uses in the Lake States, a loss of nearly 37%. The greatest relative changes occurred in the southern half that includes some of the most diverse cultivable lands in the country. We use transition diagrams to reveal gross changes that can be obscured if only net change is considered. Our results indicate that expansion of row crops (corn, soybean) was responsible for the majority of open land loss. Even if recently lost open lands were brought into perennial feedstock production, there would a substantial carbon debt. This reduction in open land availability for biomass production is closing the window of opportunity to establish a sustainable cellulosic feedstock economy in the Lake States as mandated by current Federal policy, incurring a substantial GHG debt, and displacing a range of other natural ecosystems and their services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]