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China's agricultural economy has been hindered by insufficient accumulation of agricultural capital and credit constraints. It is worth investigating whether China's county financial marketization reform policy can alleviate these constraints and promote high-quality development of the agricultural economy (HQDAE). This paper presents an empirical analysis of the impact of county financial marketization reform on the HQDAE, based on county panel data. The focus is on the mechanism of county urbanization in the above relationship. The results show that county financial marketization has a significant non-linear impact on the HQDAE. Specifically, it has a 'U-shaped' impact on the overall growth of the agricultural economy and an inverted 'N-shaped' impact on the quality improvement of the agricultural economy. Secondly, the relationship between county financial marketization and the HQDAE is influenced by a threshold effect based on the level of county urbanization. As the level of county urbanization increases, the promoting effect of county financial marketization on HQDAE also increases significantly. Additionally, county financial marketization helps to promote county urbanization and accelerate urban-rural integration, which in turn leads to HQDAE. The research in this paper suggests that county-level local governments should promote a differentiated county financial system. In the early stages of financial market-oriented reform, the government should enhance the capacity of financial services in rural areas through tax breaks, policy incentives, and other measures to prevent financial leakage from agriculture. In the later stages of financial marketization reform, the government should strengthen financial supervision to prevent financial resources from being diverted from industry to capital. Moreover, to achieve the HQDAE, it is necessary to promote county financial market-oriented reform and accelerate the construction of county urbanization. This will help break the dual economic structure of urban and rural areas and promote the flow of financial capital, technology, and human capital from county cities to rural areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Because the complexity of the external environment has put great pressure on the agricultural economy, making it vulnerable, it is necessary to promote a system of resilience in the agricultural economy so that Chinese agriculture can continue to persevere in the face of serious external uncertainties. Therefore, this paper investigates the spatio-temporal pattern and evolution of the distributional dynamics of China's county-level agricultural economic resilience based on 2000–2020 data covering 2,545 counties. The results are as follows: first, from 2000 to 2020, the mean value of China's county-level agricultural economic resilience showed an obvious upward trend, which indicates that China's agricultural economy gradually increased its ability to resist risks and continued to develop in a favourable manner. Specifically, the county-level agricultural economic resilience index of the northeast region grew the most significantly, while the index of county units in the western region was relatively low. Second, the centre of gravity of the spatial distribution of China's agricultural economic resilience gradually migrated to the northwest, showing a dominant direction from northeast to southwest and a tendency to develop from southeast to northwest. Third, the spatial differences in China's agricultural economic resilience generally showed an upward trend, while county-level differences were the main source of the overall differences, followed by inter-provincial differences, inter-municipal differences and inter-regional differences. Additionally, the contribution of county-level differences to the overall differences fluctuated within the range of 54%-58%. Fourth, there is a possibility of localized convergence in China's agricultural economic resilience, which is continuous in spatial effects and has obvious positively correlated spatial effects at different times and in different county spaces. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The vegetable sector is a vital pillar of society and an indispensable part of the national economic structure. As a significant segment of the agricultural market, accurately forecasting vegetable prices holds significant importance. Vegetable market pricing is subject to a myriad of complex influences, resulting in nonlinear patterns that conventional time series methodologies often struggle to decode. In this paper, we exploit the average daily price data of six distinct types of vegetables sourced from seven key wholesale markets in Beijing, spanning from 2009 to 2023. Upon training an LSTM model, we discovered that it exhibited exceptional performance on the test dataset. Demonstrating robust predictive performance across various vegetable categories, the LSTM model shows commendable generalization abilities. Moreover, LSTM model has a higher accuracy compared to several machine learning methods, including CNN-based time series forecasting approaches. With R2 score of 0.958 and MAE of 0.143, our LSTM model registers an enhancement of over 5% in forecast accuracy relative to conventional machine learning counterparts. Therefore, by predicting vegetable prices for the upcoming week, we envision this LSTM model application in real-world settings to aid growers, consumers, and policymakers in facilitating informed decision-making. The insights derived from this forecasting research could augment market transparency and optimize supply chain management. Furthermore, it contributes to the market stability and the balance of supply and demand, offering a valuable reference for the sustainable development of the vegetable industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The new development pattern has identified two key avenues for the sustained advancement of high-quality agricultural and rural development: digitalisation and low-carbon development. The measurement of the digital economy and the agricultural carbon emission performance, and their spatial and temporal heterogeneity, is a crucial step in promoting the spatial coordination and sustainable development of digitalisation and low-carbon agriculture. This paper employs the entropy value method, SBM model, and coupling coordination degree model to investigate the coupling coordination measurement and spatial-temporal heterogeneity of the performance of the digital economy and agricultural carbon emissions. The data used are provincial panel data from 2013 to 2021. The simulation results demonstrate that, between 2013 and 2021, the digital economy of all provinces exhibited varying degrees of growth, yet the development of the digital economy between provinces exhibited a more pronounced tendency to diverge. Concurrently, the agricultural carbon emission efficiency in China exhibited a fluctuating upward trend. The development of the digital economy and the efficiency of agricultural carbon emission were found to be highly coupled. Their coupling and coordination relationship showed a downward trend followed by an upward trend. In general, it is suggested that we should increase investment in digital economy infrastructure and technology, promote digital agricultural applications, strengthen policy guidance and financial support, establish a coupling coordination mechanism and strengthen farmers' digital literacy and environmental awareness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agricultural ecological efficiency is an important tool with which to measure the coordination of the sustainable development of agricultural economies and ecological environments. In this paper, a super-efficiency slacks-based measures model was used to measure the agricultural ecological efficiency in Hebei Province. The characteristics of spatial and temporal evolution patterns were explored using a spatial Markov transfer matrix. The results showed that (i) based on measurements, the agricultural ecological efficiency in Hebei Province showed regional differences in four regions (eastern, northern, central and southern Hebei) and 141 counties; (ii) from the perspective of evolutionary characteristics of agricultural ecological efficiency, the overall development of in Hebei Province was good, with more concentrated spatial distribution and more obvious direction, while the type of transfer of agricultural ecological efficiency in Hebei Province showed strong stability that was significantly affected by geographical neighborhood conditions and the club convergence phenomenon; (iii) from the perspective of the long-term evolutionary trend of agricultural ecological efficiency, the areas adjacent to counties with low efficiency had limited potential for improvement, and the areas adjacent to counties with high grade had great potential. However, it was difficult to achieve large-scale improvement in agricultural ecological efficiency in Hebei Province, whether the impact of geospatial backgrounds was considered or not. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The linkages between the US and China, the world's two major agricultural powers, have brought great uncertainty to the global food markets. Inspired by these, this paper examines the extreme risk spillovers between US and Chinese agricultural futures markets during significant crises. We use a copula-conditional value at risk (CoVaR) model with Markov-switching regimes to capture the tail dependence in their pair markets. The study covers the period from January 2006 to December 2022 and identifies two distinct dependence regimes (stable and crisis periods). Moreover, we find significant and asymmetric upside/downside extreme risk spillovers between the US and Chinese markets, which are highly volatile in crises. Additionally, the impact of international capital flows (the financial channel) on risk spillovers is particularly pronounced during the global financial crisis. During the period of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine 2022 war, the impact of supply chain disruptions (the non-financial channel) is highlighted. Our findings provide a theoretical reference for monitoring the co-movements in agricultural futures markets and practical insights for managing investment portfolios and enhancing food market stability during crises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The digital economy, as a new economic form with high information density, provides a new driving force for the realization of high-quality agricultural development. Panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2011 to 2020 were selected for analysis. The static panel data interaction effect model and panel threshold model were used to verify the nonlinear influence mechanism and heterogeneity of financial development in the process of the digital economy affecting high-quality agricultural development. The findings are as follows. (1) During the study period, the high-quality development of China's agriculture showed a steady upward trend; however, the regional differences were significant, and the eastern part was larger than the central and western part. (2) The digital economy can promote high-quality agricultural development. (3) The digital economy has a double threshold effect in the process of affecting high-quality agricultural development, which depends on the level of financial development. When the threshold is exceeded, the digital economy has a more significant promoting effect on high-quality agricultural development. (4) The impact of the digital economy on high-quality agricultural development is heterogeneous. From the perspective of different regions, the impact effect is greatest in the eastern region, while the effect is smaller in the central and western regions. From different resource endowments, the positive impact effect is greatest in the major grain-selling areas, followed by the major grain producing areas, but the positive digital economy driving effect is not significant in the balance of production and sales areas. Finally, three policy suggestions are proposed. First, the Chinese government should increase investments in and support for digital technology to promote the integration of the digital economy and agriculture. Second, the Chinese government should promote the development of digital inclusive finance in areas with financial development below the threshold. Third, different regions should implement differentiated digital economies to promote high-quality agricultural development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]