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How do author perceptions match up to the outcomes of the peer-review process and perceptions of others? In a top-tier computer science conference (NeurIPS 2021) with more than 23,000 submitting authors and 9,000 submitted papers, we surveyed the authors on three questions: (i) their predicted probability of acceptance for each of their papers, (ii) their perceived ranking of their own papers based on scientific contribution, and (iii) the change in their perception about their own papers after seeing the reviews. The salient results are: (1) Authors had roughly a three-fold overestimate of the acceptance probability of their papers: The median prediction was 70% for an approximately 25% acceptance rate. (2) Female authors exhibited a marginally higher (statistically significant) miscalibration than male authors; predictions of authors invited to serve as meta-reviewers or reviewers were similarly calibrated, but better than authors who were not invited to review. (3) Authors' relative ranking of scientific contribution of two submissions they made generally agreed with their predicted acceptance probabilities (93% agreement), but there was a notable 7% responses where authors predicted a worse outcome for their better paper. (4) The author-provided rankings disagreed with the peer-review decisions about a third of the time; when co-authors ranked their jointly authored papers, co-authors disagreed at a similar rate-about a third of the time. (5) At least 30% of respondents of both accepted and rejected papers said that their perception of their own paper improved after the review process. The stakeholders in peer review should take these findings into account in setting their expectations from peer review.

Paper mulberry pollen, declared a pest in several countries including Pakistan, can trigger severe allergies and cause asthma attacks. We aimed to develop an algorithm that could accurately predict high pollen days to underpin an alert system that would allow patients to take timely precautionary measures. We developed and validated two prediction models that take historical pollen and weather data as their input to predict the start date and peak date of the pollen season in Islamabad, the capital city of Pakistan. The first model is based on linear regression and the second one is based on phenological modelling. We tested our models on an original and comprehensive dataset from Islamabad. The mean absolute errors (MAEs) for the start day are 2.3 and 3.7 days for the linear and phenological models, respectively, while for the peak day, the MAEs are 3.3 and 4.0 days, respectively. These encouraging results could be used in a website or app to notify patients and healthcare providers to start preparing for the paper mulberry pollen season. Timely action could reduce the burden of symptoms, mitigate the risk of acute attacks and potentially prevent deaths due to acute pollen-induced allergy.

Threatened shark species are caught in large numbers by artisanal and commercial fisheries and traded globally. Monitoring both which shark species are caught and sold in fisheries, and the export of CITES-restricted products, are essential in reducing illegal fishing. Current methods for species identification rely on visual examination by experts or DNA barcoding techniques requiring specialist laboratory facilities and trained personnel. The need for specialist equipment and/or input from experts means many markets are currently not monitored. We have developed a paper-based Lab-on-a-Chip (LOC) to facilitate identification of three threatened and CITES-listed sharks, bigeye thresher (Alopias superciliosus), pelagic thresher (A. pelagicus) and shortfin mako shark (Isurus oxyrinchus) at market source. DNA was successfully extracted from shark meat and fin samples and combined with DNA amplification and visualisation using Loop Mediated Isothermal Amplification (LAMP) on the LOC. This resulted in the successful identification of the target species of sharks in under an hour, with a working positive and negative control. The LOC provided a simple "yes" or "no" result via a colour change from pink to yellow when one of the target species was present. The LOC serves as proof-of-concept (PoC) for field-based species identification as it does not require specialist facilities. It can be used by non-scientifically trained personnel, especially in areas where there are suspected high frequencies of mislabelling or for the identification of dried shark fins in seizures.

Anti-neutrophil cytoplasmic antibody (ANCA) associated vasculitis (AAV) is a chronic, relapsing-remitting condition associated with increased morbidity. Previous research has shown patients with AAV report high levels of fatigue, pain, depression and anxiety. Over recent years successful work has been carried out to improve clinical outcomes, resulting in reduced mortality and end stage kidney disease (ESKD). Despite this, little work has been done to better understand the role of the patient within this condition. The prevalence of AAV is increasing and to date, there is a shortage of specific tools that assess and measure key features relating to patient reported outcomes (PROs). This protocol details how we can better understand the lived experiences of those with AAV through the development of a disease specific, patient reported outcome measure (PROM), to be used in clinic practice. This will allow us to recognise and validate PROs and the impact the disease and its treatment has on patients' health related quality of life (HRQoL). In addition, we aim to identify potential differences in PRO's between demographics, organ involvement and treatment subgroups in AAV as well as outcomes relating to the patient experience. Patients from a single centre in the UK will be recruited to take part in the exploratory qualitative study which will include focus groups and semi-structured interviews. The inclusion criteria comprise anyone with a diagnosis of AAV and willing to participate, including those who have active or relapsing disease, those are economically active, unemployed, retired and patients receiving renal replacement therapy. The aim of the project is to identify key issues patients experience in relation to their disease and its management and how these can be better assessed in a new PROM developed for use in the clinic setting. This will enable better delivery of individualised care and inform shared decision making, while also serving as a platform for future research looking at PROs in other glomerulonephritides.

Circular reinforced concrete wound glass fiber reinforced polymer (GFRP) columns and reinforced concrete filled GFRP columns are extensively utilized in civil engineering practice. Various factors influence the performance of these two types of GFRP columns, thereby impacting the whole project. Therefore, it is highly significant to establish the prediction models for ultimate displacement and ultimate bearing capacity to optimize the design of the two types of GFRP columns. In this study, based on the experiments conducted under different conditions on the two kinds of GFRP columns, automatic machine learning along with four other commonly used machine learning methods were employed for modeling to analyze how the column parameters (cross section shape, concrete strength, height of GFRP column, wound GFRP wall thickness, inner diameter of wound GFRP column) affect their performance. The differences in performance among these five machine learning methods were analyzed after modeling. Subsequently, we obtained the variation patterns in ultimate displacement and ultimate bearing capacity of the columns influenced by each parameter by testing the data using the optimal model. Based on these findings, the optimal design schemes for the two types of GFRP columns are proposed. The contribution of this paper is three-fold. First, AutoML sheds light on the automatic prediction of ultimate displacement and ultimate bearing capacity of GFRP column. Second, in this paper, two optimal design schemes of GFRP columns are proposed. Third, for AEC industrial practitioners, the whole process is automatic, accurate and less reliant on data expertise and the optimization design scheme proposed in the article is relatively scientific.

This paper investigates the impact mechanism by which an incentive-based fertility policy may reduce the labor income share. First, the specific paths through which this impact mechanism is realized are analyzed using the production function. It is found that an incentive-based fertility policy triggers high savings, which implies more, cheaper, and more readily available capital to be invested in production. A distribution system that earns income based on factor contributions results in more gains for capital than labor, i.e., a lower share of labor income and a wider income gap between labor and capital. Second, the impact mechanism includes three theoretical hypotheses. They are that an encouraging fertility policy is negatively related to labor income share; this relationship is valid provided that the study subject is in a closed economy; and that capital intensification is a mediator variable of fertility policy affecting labor income share. Finally, to further corroborate the impact mechanism in this paper, a Hansen threshold panel model is applied to verify that the effect of fertility policy on labor income share has a threshold effect. This indicates that the effect of the former on the latter changes significantly before and after the change in fertility policy, confirming the existence of an impact mechanism. The established literature has paid little attention to the impact of incentivised fertility policies on the labour income gap. Using capital intensification as the mediating variable, this paper demonstrates the existence of the former effect on the latter. In view of this, under the encouraged fertility policy, this paper proposes specific measures to enhance the labor income share in order to narrow the income gap between labor and capital.