7 results
Search Results
2. Niche shifts and the potential distribution of Phenacoccus solenopsis (Hemiptera: Pseudococcidae) under climate change.
- Author
-
Wei, Jiufeng, Zhang, Hufang, Zhao, Wanqing, and Zhao, Qing
- Subjects
ECOLOGICAL niche ,HEMIPTERA ,NIPAECOCCUS viridis ,INTRODUCED organisms & the environment ,CROP losses ,PREVENTION - Abstract
The cotton mealybug, Phenacoccus solenopsis Tinsley (Hemiptera: Pseudococcidae), is a serious invasive species that significantly damages plants of approximately 60 families around the world. It is originally from North America and has also been introduced to other continents. Our goals were to create a current and future potential global distribution map for this pest under climate change with MaxEnt software. We tested the hypothesis of niche conservatism for P. solenopsis by comparing its native niche in North America to its invasive niches on other continents using Principal components analyses (PCA) in R. The potentially suitable habitat for P. solenopsis in its native and non-native ranges is presented in the present paper. The results suggested that the mean temperature of the wettest quarter and the mean temperature of the driest quarter are the most important environmental variables determining the potential distribution of P. solenopsis. We found strong evidence for niche shifts in the realized climatic niche of this pest in South America and Australia due to niche unfilling; however, a niche shift in the realized climatic niche of this pest in Eurasian owing to niche expansion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2017
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
3. Trait-based plant ecology a flawed tool in climate studies? The leaf traits of wild olive that pattern with climate are not those routinely measured.
- Author
-
Kassout, Jalal, Terral, Jean-Frederic, Hodgson, John G., and Ater, Mohammed
- Subjects
PLANT ecology ,CLIMATE extremes ,CLIMATE change ,PRINCIPAL components analysis ,OLIVE ,CLIMATOLOGY - Abstract
Climate-related studies have generally focussed upon physiologically well-defined ‘mechanistic’ traits rather than ‘functional’ ones relating indirectly to resource capture. Nevertheless, field responses to climate are likely to typically include both ‘mechanistic’ specialization to climatic extremes and ‘functional’ strategies that optimize resource acquisition during less climatically-severe periods. Here, this hypothesis was tested. Seventeen traits (six ‘functional’, six ‘mechanistic’ and five ‘intermediate’) were measured from 19 populations of oleaster (wild olive) along a climatic gradient in Morocco. Principal components analysis of the trait dataset identified size and the ‘worldwide leaf economics spectrum’ as PCA axes 1 and 2. However, contrary to our prediction, these axes, and commonly-measured ‘functional’ traits, were little correlated with climate. Instead, PCA 3, perhaps relating to water-use and succulence, together stomatal density, specific leaf water content and leaf shape, patterned with altitude, aridity, rainfall and temperature. We concluded that, at least for slow-growing species, such as oleaster, ‘mechanistic’ traits are key to identifying mechanisms of climatic restriction. Meaningful collaboration between ‘mechanistic’ and ‘functional’ disciplines provides the best way of improving our understanding of the global impacts of climate change on species distribution and performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2019
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
4. Using climate envelope models to identify potential ecological trajectories on the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska.
- Author
-
Magness, Dawn Robin and Morton, John M.
- Subjects
CLIMATE change ,ATMOSPHERIC models ,PLANT communities ,MOUNTAIN plants - Abstract
Managers need information about the vulnerability of historical plant communities, and their potential future conditions, to respond appropriately to landscape change driven by global climate change. We model the climate envelopes of plant communities on the Kenai Peninsula in Southcentral Alaska and forecast to 2020, 2050, and 2080. We assess 6 model outputs representing downscaled climate data from 3 global climate model outputs and 2 representative concentration pathways. We use two lines of evidence, model convergence and empirically measured rates of change, to identify the following plausible ecological trajectories for the peninsula: (1.) alpine tundra and sub-alpine shrub decrease, (2.) perennial snow and ice decrease, (3.) forests remain on the Kenai Lowlands, (4.) the contiguous white-Lutz-Sitka spruce complex declines, and (5.) mixed conifer afforestation occurs along the Gulf of Alaska coast. We suggest that converging models in the context of other lines of evidence is a viable approach to increase certainty for adaptation planning. Extremely dynamic areas with multiple outcomes (i.e., disagreement) among models represent ecological risk, but may also represent opportunities for facilitated adaptation and other managerial approaches to help tip the balance one way or another. By reducing uncertainty, this eclectic approach can be used to inform expectations about the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2018
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
5. Incorporating abundance information and guiding variable selection for climate-based ensemble forecasting of species' distributional shifts.
- Author
-
Tanner, Evan P., Papeş, Monica, Elmore, R. Dwayne, Fuhlendorf, Samuel D., and Davis, Craig A.
- Subjects
ECOLOGICAL niche ,CLIMATE change ,SPECIES distribution ,STATISTICAL correlation ,MATHEMATICAL variables - Abstract
Ecological niche models (ENMs) have increasingly been used to estimate the potential effects of climate change on species’ distributions worldwide. Recently, predictions of species abundance have also been obtained with such models, though knowledge about the climatic variables affecting species abundance is often lacking. To address this, we used a well-studied guild (temperate North American quail) and the Maxent modeling algorithm to compare model performance of three variable selection approaches: correlation/variable contribution (CVC), biological (i.e., variables known to affect species abundance), and random. We then applied the best approach to forecast potential distributions, under future climatic conditions, and analyze future potential distributions in light of available abundance data and presence-only occurrence data. To estimate species’ distributional shifts we generated ensemble forecasts using four global circulation models, four representative concentration pathways, and two time periods (2050 and 2070). Furthermore, we present distributional shifts where 75%, 90%, and 100% of our ensemble models agreed. The CVC variable selection approach outperformed our biological approach for four of the six species. Model projections indicated species-specific effects of climate change on future distributions of temperate North American quail. The Gambel’s quail (Callipepla gambelii) was the only species predicted to gain area in climatic suitability across all three scenarios of ensemble model agreement. Conversely, the scaled quail (Callipepla squamata) was the only species predicted to lose area in climatic suitability across all three scenarios of ensemble model agreement. Our models projected future loss of areas for the northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) and scaled quail in portions of their distributions which are currently areas of high abundance. Climatic variables that influence local abundance may not always scale up to influence species’ distributions. Special attention should be given to selecting variables for ENMs, and tests of model performance should be used to validate the choice of variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2017
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
6. Mesolithic projectile variability along the southern North Sea basin (NW Europe): Hunter-gatherer responses to repeated climate change at the beginning of the Holocene
- Author
-
Philippe Crombé
- Subjects
Atmospheric Science ,Environmental change ,BELGIUM ,Mesolithic Period ,Social Sciences ,Stone Age ,Forests ,01 natural sciences ,law.invention ,Trees ,Wildfires ,Geographical Locations ,law ,0601 history and archaeology ,Radiocarbon dating ,Holocene ,Hunter-gatherer ,History, Ancient ,Climatology ,Multidisciplinary ,Quaternary Period ,060102 archaeology ,Ecology ,Eukaryota ,Geology ,06 humanities and the arts ,Plants ,Radioactive Carbon Dating ,Terrestrial Environments ,Adaptation, Physiological ,Europe ,Geography ,Archaeology ,Medicine ,North Sea ,Weapons ,TRANSITION ,Research Article ,010506 paleontology ,Science ,Climate Change ,MODELS ,Climate change ,Research and Analysis Methods ,Ecosystems ,ENVIRONMENTAL-CHANGE ,Anthropology, Physical ,Paleoclimatology ,CHRONOLOGY ,Humans ,RECORDS ,Mesolithic ,Sea level ,Chemical Characterization ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,Isotope Analysis ,Holocene Epoch ,LAND-USE ,History and Archaeology ,AREA ,Ecology and Environmental Sciences ,Radiometric Dating ,Organisms ,Biology and Life Sciences ,Paleontology ,Geologic Time ,Bayes Theorem ,BP EVENT ,Archaeological Dating ,People and Places ,Earth Sciences ,Cenozoic Era ,Physical geography ,VEGETATION ,Pines - Abstract
This paper investigates how former hunter-gatherers living along the southern North Sea coast in NW Europe adapted to long-term and short-term climatic and environmental changes at the beginning of the Holocene. It is argued that contemporaneous hunter-gatherers repeatedly changed their hunting equipment in response to changing climate and environment, not just for functional reasons but mainly driven by socio-territorial considerations. Based on a Bayesian analysis of 122 critically selected radiocarbon dates a broad chronological correlation is demonstrated between rapid changes in the design and technology of stone projectiles and short but abrupt cooling events, occurring at 10.3, 9.3 and 8.2 ka cal BP. Combined with the rapid sea level rises and increased wildfires these climatic events probably impacted the lifeways of hunter-gatherers in such a way that they increasingly faced resource stress and competition, forcing them to invest in the symbolic defense of their social territories.
- Published
- 2019
7. Niche shifts and the potential distribution of Phenacoccus solenopsis (Hemiptera: Pseudococcidae) under climate change
- Author
-
Hufang Zhang, Jiufeng Wei, Wanqing Zhao, and Qing Zhao
- Subjects
0106 biological sciences ,Atmospheric Science ,Invasive Species ,lcsh:Medicine ,Cotton ,01 natural sciences ,Invasive species ,Geographical Locations ,Mathematical and Statistical Techniques ,lcsh:Science ,Flowering Plants ,Climatology ,Principal Component Analysis ,Multidisciplinary ,biology ,Ecology ,Temperature ,Plants ,Geography ,Habitat ,Physical Sciences ,Ecological Niches ,Statistics (Mathematics) ,Research Article ,Climate Change ,Niche ,Oceania ,Climate change ,Research and Analysis Methods ,010603 evolutionary biology ,Hemiptera ,Species Colonization ,Animals ,Ecosystem ,Mealybug ,Statistical Methods ,Ecological niche ,Ecology and Environmental Sciences ,lcsh:R ,Australia ,Organisms ,Biology and Life Sciences ,South America ,biology.organism_classification ,010602 entomology ,People and Places ,North America ,Multivariate Analysis ,Earth Sciences ,lcsh:Q ,PEST analysis ,Mathematics ,Software - Abstract
The cotton mealybug, Phenacoccus solenopsis Tinsley (Hemiptera: Pseudococcidae), is a serious invasive species that significantly damages plants of approximately 60 families around the world. It is originally from North America and has also been introduced to other continents. Our goals were to create a current and future potential global distribution map for this pest under climate change with MaxEnt software. We tested the hypothesis of niche conservatism for P. solenopsis by comparing its native niche in North America to its invasive niches on other continents using Principal components analyses (PCA) in R. The potentially suitable habitat for P. solenopsis in its native and non-native ranges is presented in the present paper. The results suggested that the mean temperature of the wettest quarter and the mean temperature of the driest quarter are the most important environmental variables determining the potential distribution of P. solenopsis. We found strong evidence for niche shifts in the realized climatic niche of this pest in South America and Australia due to niche unfilling; however, a niche shift in the realized climatic niche of this pest in Eurasian owing to niche expansion.
- Published
- 2017
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