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Rationale, aims and objective: Substituting outpatient hospital care with primary care is seen as a solution to decrease unnecessary referrals to outpatient hospital care and decrease rising healthcare costs. This systematic review aimed to evaluate the effects on quality of care, health and costs outcomes of substituting outpatient hospital care with primary care-based interventions, which are performed by medical specialists in face-to-face consultations in a primary care setting. Method: The systematic review was performed using the PICO framework. Original papers in which the premise of the intervention was to substitute outpatient hospital care with primary care through the involvement of a medical specialist in a primary care setting were eligible. Results: A total of 14 papers were included. A substitution intervention in general practitioner (GP) practices was described in 11 papers, three described a joint consultation intervention in which GPs see patients together with a medical specialist. This study showed that substitution initiatives result mostly in favourable outcomes compared to outpatient hospital care. The initiatives resulted mostly in shorter waiting lists, shorter clinic waiting times and higher patient satisfaction. Costs for treating one extra patient seemed to be higher in the intervention settings. This was mainly caused by inefficient planning of consultation hours and lower patient numbers. Conclusions: Despite the fact that internationally a lot has been written about the importance of performing substitution interventions in which preventing unnecessary referrals to outpatient hospital care was the aim, only 14 papers were included. Future systematic reviews should focus on the effects on the Triple Aim of substitution initiatives in which other healthcare professions than medical specialists are involved along with new technologies, such as e-consults. Additionally, to gain more insight into the effects of substitution initiatives operating in a dynamic healthcare context, it is important to keep evaluating the interventions in a longitudinal study design. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses two nationally representative sets of medical claims data from medical assistance and universal public health insurance systems to examine how medical assistance system assignment affects short-term inpatient health care provision. In Japan, the medical assistance system, which is part of a public assistance system, provides medical care services for its beneficiaries without imposing any financial burdens, such as copayments or advance premium payments. These circumstances can lead to inpatient costs, as physicians may provide more treatments because there is a financial incentive. Because the assignment of public assistance in Japan is not random but is subject to means testing by the local government, I employ the instrumental variable model to control the potential correlation. I find that medical expenditure is significantly higher for medical assistance patients than for universal public health insurance patients, with an arc elasticity of approximately 0.20. This elasticity is slightly greater than that found for inpatient care in the randomized RAND Health Insurance Experiment and recent empirical studies on low-income populations. In addition, the elasticities for patients who receive medication, treatment and surgery are greater. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: As gentrification continues in New York City as well as other urban areas, residents of lower socioeconomic status maybe at higher risk for residential displacement. Yet, there have been few quantitative assessments of the health impacts of displacement. The objective of this paper is to assess the association between displacement and healthcare access and mental health among the original residents of gentrifying neighborhoods in New York City. Methods: We used 2 data sources: 1) 2005–2014 American Community Surveys to identify gentrifying neighborhoods in New York City, and 2) 2006–2014 Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System. Our cohort included 12,882 residents of gentrifying neighborhoods in 2006 who had records of emergency department visits or hospitalization at least once every 2 years in 2006–2014. Rates of emergency department visits and hospitalizations post-baseline were compared between residents who were displaced and those who remained. Results: During 2006–2014, 23% were displaced. Compared with those who remained, displaced residents were more likely to make emergency department visits and experience hospitalizations, mainly due to mental health (Rate Ratio = 1.8, 95% confidence interval = 1.5, 2.2), after controlling for baseline demographics, health status, healthcare utilization, residential movement, and the neighborhood of residence in 2006. Conclusions: These findings suggest negative impacts of displacement on healthcare access and mental health, particularly among adults living in urban areas and with a history of frequent emergency department visits or hospitalizations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Chongqing is the largest municipality and located in Southwestern of China, with over 30 million registered inhabitants. There are few reports regarding the epidemiology of influenza in Chongqing. The objective of the paper is to explore the epidemiology of influenza in Chongqing, in order to provide scientific basis for prevention and control of influenza. Methodology /Principal Findings: From 2011 to 2015, we collected information on influenza-like illness (ILI) patients fulfilling the case definition, and took nasalpharyngeal or throat swabs specimens from ILI cases per week at the 7 sentinel hospitals. Specimens were tested by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction(RT-PCR) for influenza. Descriptive epidemiology was applied to analyze the epidemiology and etiology of influenza. A total of 9,696,212 cases were enrolled, of which 111,589 were ILI. Of those 24,868 samples from ILI cases, 13.3% (3,314/24,868) tested positive for influenza virus (65.7% influenza A, 34.1% influenza B, and 0.2% influenza A and B co-infection). Among the influenza A viruses, 71.3% were seasonal influenza A(H3N2) and 28.7% were influenza A(H1N1)pdm09. No cases of seasonal A(H1N1) were detected. The isolation rate was highest in children aged 5–14 years old. Influenza activity consistently peaked during January-March in 2011–2015, and June-July in 2012, 2014 and 2015. Conclusions: Influenza is an important public health problem among ILI patients in Chongqing, especially among school-aged children. It might be beneficial to prioritize influenza vaccination for school-aged children and implement the school-based intervention to prevent and mitigating influenza outbreaks in Chongqing, particularly during the seasonal peaks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Health financing reforms in low- and middle- income countries (LMICs) over the past decades have focused on achieving equity in financing of health care delivery through universal health coverage. Benefit and financing incidence analyses are two analytical methods for comprehensively evaluating how well health systems perform on these objectives. This systematic review assesses progress towards equity in health care financing in LMICs through the use of BIA and FIA. Methods and Findings: Key electronic databases including Medline, Embase, Scopus, Global Health, CinAHL, EconLit and Business Source Premier were searched. We also searched the grey literature, specifically websites of leading organizations supporting health care in LMICs. Only studies using benefit incidence analysis (BIA) and/or financing incidence analysis (FIA) as explicit methodology were included. A total of 512 records were obtained from the various sources. The full texts of 87 references were assessed against the selection criteria and 24 were judged appropriate for inclusion. Twelve of the 24 studies originated from sub-Saharan Africa, nine from the Asia-Pacific region, two from Latin America and one from the Middle East. The evidence points to a pro-rich distribution of total health care benefits and progressive financing in both sub-Saharan Africa and Asia-Pacific. In the majority of cases, the distribution of benefits at the primary health care level favoured the poor while hospital level services benefit the better-off. A few Asian countries, namely Thailand, Malaysia and Sri Lanka, maintained a pro-poor distribution of health care benefits and progressive financing. Conclusion: Studies evaluated in this systematic review indicate that health care financing in LMICs benefits the rich more than the poor but the burden of financing also falls more on the rich. There is some evidence that primary health care is pro-poor suggesting a greater investment in such services and removal of barriers to care can enhance equity. The results overall suggest that there are impediments to making health care more accessible to the poor and this must be addressed if universal health coverage is to be a reality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Physician Orders for Life-Sustaining Treatment (POLST) programs have expanded rapidly, but evaluating their impact on hospital care is challenging. Objectives: To demonstrate how careful study design can reveal POLST’s impact at hospital admission and why analyses of state registry data are unlikely to capture POLST’s effects. Design: Prospective cohort study. Setting and participants: Adult in-patients with Do Not Intubate and/or Do Not Resuscitate (DNR/I) orders in the electronic medical record at the time of discharge from Johns Hopkins Hospital over 18 months. For patients with unplanned readmissions within 30 days, records were reviewed to determine if a Maryland Medical Order for Life-Sustaining Treatment (MOLST) form was presented and for the time from readmission to a DNR/I order in the EMR. Analyses were stratified by whether patients could communicate or were accompanied by a proxy at readmission. Results: Among 1,507 patients with DNR/I orders at discharge, 124 (8%) had unplanned readmissions, 112 (90%) could communicate or were accompanied by a proxy at readmission, and 12 (10%) could not communicate and were unaccompanied. For patients who were unaccompanied and could not communicate, MOLST significantly decreased the median time from readmission to DNR/I order (1.2 vs 27.1 hours, P = .001), but this association was greatly attenuated among patients who could communicate or were accompanied by a proxy (16.4 vs 25.4 hours P = .10). Conclusion: Among patients who wanted to avoid intubation and/or CPR, MOLST forms were protective when the patient was unaccompanied by a healthcare proxy at admission and could not communicate. Fewer than 10% of patients met these criteria during unplanned readmissions, and state registry data does not allow this sub-population to be identified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Carbon monoxide (CO) poisoning is frequent worldwide but knowledge regarding the epidemiology is insufficient. The aim of this study was to clarify the extent of this intoxication, its mortality and factors associated with mortality. Materials and methods: National databases from Statistics Denmark were used to identify individuals who suffered from CO-poisoning during 1995–2015, as well as information regarding co-morbidities, mortality and manner of death. Results: During the period from 1995 to 2015, 22,930 patients suffered from CO-poisoning in Denmark, and 21,138 of these patients (92%) were hospitalized. A total of 2,102 patients died within the first 30 days after poisoning (9.2%). Among these, 1,792 (85% of 2,102) were declared dead at the scene and 310 (15% of 2,102) died during hospitalization. Deaths due to CO-poisoning from smoke were intentional in 6.3% of cases, whereas deaths due to CO containing gases were intentional in 98.0% of cases. Among patients who survived >30 days, there was no significant difference in survival when comparing hyperbaric oxygen therapy (HBO) treatment with no HBO treatment after adjustment for age and co-morbidities such as drug abuse, psychiatric disease, stroke, alcohol abuse, arterial embolism, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, cerebrovascular disease and atrial fibrillation. Several co-morbidities predicted poorer outcomes for patients who survived the initial 30 days. Conclusions: Poisoning from smoke and/or CO is a frequent incident in Denmark accounting for numerous contacts with hospitals and deaths. Both intoxication and mortality are highly associated with co-morbidities interfering with cognitive and physical function. Treatment with HBO was not seen to have an effect on survival. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Homicide kills more people than war globally and is associated with income inequality. In Brazil, one of the most unequal countries of the world, the homicide rate is four times higher than the world average. Establishing if the Brazilian conditional cash transfer programme [Bolsa Familia Programme (BFP)], the largest in the world, is associated with a reduction in the rate of homicide is relevant for violence prevention programs. We aimed to assess the effect of BFP coverage on homicide and hospitalization rates from violence. Methods: BFP coverage and rates of homicide (overall and disaggregated by sex and age) and hospitalizations from violence from all 5,507 Brazilian municipalities between 2004 and 2012 were explored using multivariable negative binomial regression models with fixed effect for panel data. Robustness of results was explored using sensitivity analyses such as difference-in-difference models. Findings: Homicide rates and hospitalization from violence decreased as BFP coverage in the target population increased. For each percent increase in the uptake of the BFP, the homicide rate decreased by 0.3% (Rate Ratio:0.997; 95%CI:0.996–0.997) and hospitalizations from violence by 0.4% (RR: 0.996;95%CI:0.995–0.996). Rates of homicide and hospitalizations from violence were also negatively associated with the duration of BFP coverage. When, coverage of the target population was at least 70% for one-year, hospitalizations from violence decreased by 8%; two-years 14%, three-years 20%, and four years 25%. Interpretation: Our results support the hypothesis that conditional cash transfer programs might have as an additional benefit the prevention of homicides and hospitalizations from violence. Social protection interventions could contribute to decrease levels of violence in low-and-middle-income-countries through reducing poverty and/or socioeconomic inequalities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As dog bite injuries are a considerable problem in modern society, in order to reduce such injuries, breed-specific legislation has been introduced in a number of countries. Whilst many studies have shown a lack of effect with such legislation, the commonly used methodology is known to be flawed. Therefore, the aim of this study is to investigate the effect of the Danish breed-specific legislation on the number of dog bite injuries using more credible methods. A time series intervention method was used on a detailed dataset from Odense University Hospital, Denmark, regarding dog bite injuries presented to the emergency department. The results indicate that banning certain breeds has a highly limited effect on the overall levels of dog bite injuries, and that an enforcement of the usage of muzzle and leash in public places for these breeds also has a limited effect. Despite using more credible and sound methods, this study supports previous studies showing that breed-specific legislation seems to have no effect on dog bite injuries. In order to minimise dog bite injuries in the future, it would seem that other interventions or non-breed-specific legislation should be considered as the primary option. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and Aims: Patients who leave Emergency Department before physician’s visit (LWBS) or during treatment (LDT) represent a useful indicator of the emergency care's quality. The profile of patients LWBS was described: they are generally males, young, with lower urgency triage allocation and longer waiting time. They have a greater risk of ED re-admission compared to discharged patients, but effect on hospitalization and mortality are more controversial. The aims of this study are to identify determinants and adverse short term outcomes for LWBS and LDT patients. Methods: This is a retrospective cohort study that include all ED visits of LWBS, LDT and discharged patients in 2015 in the Lazio region, Central Italy. Determinants of LWBS or LDT were selected from gender, age, citizenship, residence area, triage category, chronic comorbidities, number of uncompleted ED visit in the previous year, mode of arrival in ED, time-band, day of the week, waiting time and ED crowding, using a multi-level logistic regression. A multivariate logistic regression was used to test if LWBS or LDT have a greater risk of short term adverse outcome compared to discharged patients. Results: The cohort consists in 835,440 visits in ED, 86.8% subjects visited and discharged, 8.9% subjects are LWBS patients and 4.3% LDT. LWBS and LDT patients are mainly young, males, with a less severe triage, with long waiting times in ED. Moreover, ED crowding and leaving ED before physician’s visit in the previous year are risk factors of self-discharging. LWBS and LDT patients have a higher risk of readmission (LWBS: OR = 4.63, 95%CI 4.5–4.7; OR = 2.89, 95%CI 2.8–2.9; LDT: OR = 3.12, 95%CI 3–3.2; OR = 2.25, 95%CI2.2–2.3 for readmissions within 2 and 7 days respectively) and hospitalization (LWBS: OR = 3.65, 95%CI 3.4–3.9; OR = 2.25, 95%CI 2.1–2.4; LDT: OR = 3.96, 95%CI 3.6–4.3; OR = 2.62, 95%CI 2.4–2.8 for hospitalization within 2 and 7 days respectively). Furthermore, we find a mortality excess of risk for LWBS patients compared to the reference group (OR = 2.56, 95%CI1.6–4.2; OR = 1.7, 95%CI 1.3–2.2 within 2 and 7 days respectively). Conclusions: Determinants of LWBS confirmed what already known, but LDT patients should be further investigated. There could be adverse health effects for people with LWBS and LDT behaviour. This could be an issue that the Regional Health System should deal with. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Acute medical units (AMUs) receive the majority of acute medical patients presenting to hospital as an emergency in the United Kingdom (UK) and in other international settings. They have emerged as a result of local service innovation in the context of a limited evidence base. As such, the AMU model is not well characterised in terms of its boundaries, patient populations and components of care. This makes service optimisation and development through strategic resource planning, quality improvement and research challenging. Aim: This study aims to evaluate a national set of AMUs with the intent of characterising the AMU model. Methods: Twenty-nine AMUs in Scotland were identified. Data were collected by semi-structured interviews with multidisciplinary healthcare professionals working in each AMU. A draft report was produced for each unit and verified by a unit representative. The unit reports were then analysed to develop a conceptual framework of key components of AMUs and a service definition of the boundaries of acute medical care. Results: Acute medical care in Scotland can be described as being delivered in “acute medical services” rather than geographically distinct AMUs. Twelve key components of AMU care were identified: care areas, functions, populations, patient flow, support services, communication, nurse care, allied healthcare professional care, non-consultant medical care, consultant care, patient assessment and specialty care. Discussion: This empirically derived characterisation of the AMU model is likely to be of utility to practitioners, managers, policy makers and researchers: it is relevant on an operational level, will aid quality improvement and is a foundation to needed further research into how best to deliver care in AMUs. This is important given the central role AMUs play in the journey of the majority of patients presenting to hospital acutely in Scotland, the UK and internationally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Infection and sepsis are leading causes of death worldwide but the epidemiology and outcomes are not well understood in resource-limited settings. We conducted a four-year prospective observational study from March 2013 to February 2017 to examine the clinical epidemiology and outcomes of adults admitted with community-acquired infection in a resource-limited tertiary-care hospital in Ubon Ratchathani province, Northeast Thailand. Hospitalized patients with infection and accompanying systemic manifestations of infection within 24 hours of admission were enrolled. Subjects were classified as having sepsis if they had a modified sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score ≥2 at enrollment. This study was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02217592. A total of 4,989 patients were analyzed. Of the cohort, 2,659 (53%) were male and the median age was 57 years (range 18–101). Of these, 1,173 (24%) patients presented primarily to the study hospital, 3,524 (71%) were transferred from 25 district hospitals or 8 smaller hospitals in the province, and 292 (6%) were transferred from one of 30 hospitals in other provinces. Three thousand seven hundred and sixteen (74%) patients were classified as having sepsis. Patients with sepsis had an older age distribution and a greater prevalence of comorbidities compared to patients without sepsis. Twenty eight-day mortality was 21% (765/3,716) in sepsis and 4% (54/1,273) in non-sepsis patients (p<0.001). After adjusting for gender, age, and comorbidities, sepsis on admission (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 3.30; 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.48–4.41, p<0.001), blood culture positive for pathogenic organisms (adjusted HR 2.21; 95% CI 1.89–2.58, p<0.001) and transfer from other hospitals (adjusted HR 2.18; 95% CI 1.69–2.81, p<0.001) were independently associated with mortality. In conclusion, mortality of community-acquired sepsis in Northeast Thailand is considerable and transferred patients with infection are at increased risk of death. To reduce mortality of sepsis in this and other resource-limited setting, facilitating rapid detection of sepsis in all levels of healthcare facilities, establishing guidelines for transfer of sepsis patients, and initiating sepsis care prior to and during transfer may be beneficial. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Setting: Myanmar National AIDS Program has had significant scale-up of services and changes in CD4 eligibility criterion for ART initiation from 2013 to 2016. This study assessed early death within 6 months and attrition (death and loss to follow-up, LTFU) after ART initiation and their associated factors. Design: A retrospective cohort study on people living with HIV (PLHIV >15 year of age) enrolled at three specialist hospitals in Yangon from 1st June 2013 to 30th June 2016. Cox regression was used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) of early death and attrition. Results: Of 11,727 adults enrolled, 11,186 (95%) were initiated on ART, providing 15,964 person-years of follow-up. At baseline, median age was 36 years [IQR: 30–43], 58% were men and median CD4 count was 151 cells/mm3 (IQR: 54–310). There were 733(6%) early deaths, 961(9%) total deaths and 1371 (12%) LTFU during the study period. Independent risk factors for early death were older age (41–50 and ≥51 years) [aHR 1.38, 1.07–1.78 and 1.68, 1.21–2.34], male (1.84, 1.44–2.35), low weight (2.06, 1.64–2.59), bedridden, (3.81, 2.57–5.66) and CD4 count ≤ 50 cells/mm3 (6.83, 2.52–18.57). In addition to above factors, high attrition was associated with an abacavir-based regimen. Conclusion: Although there was a low rate of early deaths, patients were being diagnosed late and there was a high attrition rate from specialist hospitals. Concerted effort is required to increase early diagnosis and ART initiation, and strengthen community systems for HIV care to achieve ambitious goal of ending AIDS epidemic by 2030. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the 2013-2016 west Africa outbreak of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD), most of the planned clinical trials failed to reach a conclusion within the time frame of the epidemic. The performance of clinical trial designs for the evaluation of one or more experimental treatments in the specific context of an ongoing epidemic with changing case fatality rates (CFR) and unpredictable case numbers is unclear. We conduct a comprehensive evaluation of commonly used two- and multi-arm clinical trial designs based on real data, which was recorded during the 2013-16 EVD epidemic in west Africa. The primary endpoint is death within 14 days of hospitalization. The impact of the recruitment start times relative to the time course of the epidemic on the operating characteristics of the clinical trials is analysed. Designs with frequent interim analyses with the possibility of early stopping are shown to outperform designs with only a single analysis not only in terms of average time to conclusion and average sample size, but also in terms of the probability of reaching any conclusion at all. Historic control designs almost always result in substantially inflated false positive rates, when the case fatality rate changes over time. Response-adaptive randomization may be a compromise between the goal of scientific validity and the ethical goal of minimizing the number of patients allocated to ineffective treatments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We specify a Bayesian, geoadditive Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) model to assess hospital performance along the dimensions of resources and quality of stroke care in German hospitals. With 1,100 annual observations and data from 2006 to 2013 and risk-adjusted patient volume as output, we introduce a production function that captures quality, resource inputs, hospital inefficiency determinants and spatial patterns of inefficiencies. With high relevance for hospital management and health system regulators, we identify performance improvement mechanisms by considering marginal effects for the average hospital. Specialization and certification can substantially reduce mortality. Regional and hospital-level concentration can improve quality and resource efficiency. Finally, our results demonstrate a trade-off between quality improvement and resource reduction and substantial regional variation in efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Cesarean delivery occurs in one in three US births and poses risks for mothers and infants. Hispanic cesarean rates were higher than non-Hispanic white rates in the US in 2016. In 2009, cesarean rates among Hispanics on the US-Mexico border exceeded rates among US Hispanics. Since 2009, rates have declined nationwide, but border Hispanic rates have not been studied. Objective: To compare cesarean delivery rates and trends in Hispanics and non-Hispanic whites in border and nonborder counties of the four US border states before and after 2009. Study Design: We used data from birth certificates to calculate percentages of cesarean deliveries among all births and births to low-risk nulliparous women during 2000–2015, and among births to low-risk women with and without a previous cesarean during 2009–2015. We calculated 95% confidence intervals around rates and used regular and piecewise linear regression to estimate trends for four ethnic-geographic subpopulations defined by combinations of Hispanic ethnicity and border-nonborder status. Results: Of the four subpopulations, border Hispanic rates were highest every year for all cesarean outcomes. In 2015 they were 38.3% overall, 31.4% among low-risk nulliparous women, and 21.1% and 94.6% among low-risk women without and with a previous cesarean, respectively. Nonborder Hispanic rates in 2015 were lowest for all outcomes but repeat cesarean. Rates for all four subpopulations rose steadily during 2000–2009. Unlike rates for non-Hispanic whites, border and nonborder Hispanic rates did not decline post-2009. Most of the border Hispanic excess can be attributed to higher cesarean rates in Texas. Discussion: Border Hispanic cesarean rates remain higher than those among other Hispanics and non-Hispanic whites in border states and show no signs of declining. This continuing disparity warrants further analysis using individual as well as hospital, environmental and other contextual factors to help target prevention measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several case reports suggest that non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) use is associated with development of thrombotic microangiopathy (TMA). We conducted a matched population-based case-control study using linked administrative healthcare data in Ontario, Canada to assess the relationship between TMA hospitalization and recent exposure to prescription NSAIDs versus acetaminophen (acetaminophen was chosen as the referent drug because it has no known association with TMA). Cases and controls were drawn from a source population of adults who filled a prescription for either NSAIDs or acetaminophen between 1991 and 2015 (restricted to adults with prescription drug benefits [n = 3.6 million]). We identified 44 eligible cases with a hospital admission for incident TMA and a recent prescription for NSAIDs or acetaminophen. We successfully matched 38 cases (1:4) to 152 controls without TMA on demographics, risk factors for TMA, and indications for NSAID use. Cases and controls were similar with respect to age (71 years) and sex (63% women); however, on average, cases had more comorbidities than controls (12 vs. 14; p<0.05) and more primary care visits in the year before the index date (19 vs. 12; p<0.05). Cases were significantly less likely than controls to have received a recent prescription for NSAIDs (19/38 [50%] vs. 115/152 [76%], respectively; adjusted odds ratio 0.37, 95% confidence interval: 0.16 to 0.84). Results were similar in several sensitivity analyses. Overall, the results of this study do not support a harmful association between NSAID use and the development of TMA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Streptococcus pneumoniae (Sp) is a leading cause of bacterial pneumonia, meningitis, and sepsis and a major source of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) is defined as isolation of Sp from a normally sterile site, including blood or cerebrospinal fluid. The aim of this study is to describe outcomes as well as clinical and epidemiological characteristics of hospitalized IPD case patients in central China. Methods: We conducted surveillance for IPD among children and adults from April 5, 2010 to September 30, 2012, in four major hospitals in Jingzhou City, Hubei Province. We collected demographic, clinical, and outcome data for all enrolled hospitalized patients with severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) or meningitis, and collected blood, urine, and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) for laboratory testing for Sp infections. Collected data were entered into Epidata software and imported into SPSS for analysis. Results: We enrolled 22,375 patients, including 22,202 (99%) with SARI and 173 (1%) with meningitis. One hundred and eighteen (118, 3%) with either SARI or meningitis were Sp positive, 32 (0.8%) from blood/CSF culture, and 87 (5%) from urine antigen testing. Of those 118 patients, 57% were aged ≥65 years and nearly 100% received antibiotics during hospitalization. None were previously vaccinated with 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV 7), 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine, or seasonal influenza vaccine. The main serotypes identified were 14, 12, 3, 1, 19F, 4, 5, 9V, 15 and 18C, corresponding to serotype coverage rates of 42%, 63%, and 77% for PCV7, PCV10, and PCV13, respectively. Conclusions: Further work is needed to expand access to pneumococcal vaccination in China, both among children and potentially among the elderly, and inappropriate use of antibiotics is a widespread and serious problem in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Recent evidence on the Spanish National Health System (SNHS) reveals a considerable margin for hospital efficiency and quality improvement. However, those studies do not consider both dimensions together. This study aims at jointly studying both technical efficiency (TE) and quality, classifying the public SNHS hospitals according to their joint performance. Methods: Stochastic frontier analysis is used to estimate TE and multilevel logistic regressions to build a low-quality composite measure (LQ), which considers in-hospital mortality and safety events. All hospitalizations discharged in Spain in 2003 and 2013, in 179 acute-care general hospitals, were studied. Four scenarios of resulting performance were built setting yearly medians as thresholds for the overall sample, and according to hospital-complexity strata. Results: Overall, since 2003, median TE improved and LQ reduced -from TE2003:0.89 to TE2013:0.93 and, from LQ2003:42.6 to LQ2013:27.7 per 1,000 treated patients. The time estimated coefficient showed technical progress over the period. TE across hospitals showed scarce variability (CV2003:0.08 vs. CV2013:0.07), not so the rates of LQ (CV2003:0.64 vs. CV2013:0.76). No correlation was found between TE values and LQ rates. When jointly considering technical efficiency and quality, hospitals dealing with the highest clinical complexity showed the highest chance to be placed in optimal scenarios, also showing lesser variability between hospitals. Conclusions: Efficiency and quality have improved in Spanish public hospitals. Not all hospitals experiencing improvements in efficiency equally improved their quality. The joint analysis of both dimensions allowed identifying those optimal hospitals according to this trade-off. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Globally, dementia is one of the leading causes of death. Given the growing elderly population in the world, the yearly number of deaths by dementia is expected to increase. Patients dying from dementia are reported to suffer from a burden of symptoms similar to that of patients with cancer, but receive less medication against symptoms, have a lower probability of palliative care planning and seldom have access to specialised palliative care. Studies investigating the quality of palliative care in dementia are scarce. The aim of this Swedish national study was to compare the quality of end-of-life care between patients with dementia and patients with cancer regardless of place of care. Methods: Thirteen end-of-life care quality indicators collected by the Swedish Register of Palliative Care (SRPC) were compared between patients dying from dementia and patients dying from cancer. Data were collected from deaths occurring in nursing homes, hospitals, specialised and general palliative home care, and palliative in-patient units during a three-year period (during March 2012 to February 2015). Analyses were performed using a multivariable logistic regression model, adjusted for age and gender. A subgroup of patients with Alzheimer’s disease was identified and compared to patients with other and unspecified types of dementia. Results: A total of 4624 deaths from Alzheimer’s disease, 11 804deaths from other dementia diagnoses and 51 609 deaths from cancer were included. For six of the 13 quality indicators examined (prescription of PRN drugs against nausea and anxiety, information and bereavement support offered to next of kin, pain assessment and specialised palliative care consultations), poorer outcomes were shown for the dementia group in comparison to the cancer group. Two outcomes (prevalence of pressure ulcers and fluid therapy during the last 24 hours in life) showed better outcomes for the dementia group. The outcomes for the 13 quality indicators were similar for patients with Alzheimer’s disease compared to patients with other and unspecified types of dementia. Conclusions: The findings in this study indicates that patients dying from Alzheimer’s disease and other types of dementia receive a poorer quality of end-of-life care concerning several important end-of-life care areas when compared to patients dying from cancer. Guidelines for end-of-life care in Sweden cannot explain or justify these differences. Further studies are needed to find possible ways to improve end-of-life care in the large and growing group of patients dying from dementia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Cancer care represents a substantial and rapidly rising healthcare cost in Australia. Our aim was to provide accurate population-based estimates of the health services cost of cancer care using large-scale linked patient-level data. Methods: We analysed data for incident cancers diagnosed 2006–2010 and followed to 2014 among 266,793 eligible participants in the 45 and Up Study. Health system costs included Medicare and pharmaceutical claims, inpatient hospital episodes and emergency department presentations. Costs for cancer cases and matched cancer-free controls were compared, to estimate monthly/annual excess costs of cancer care by cancer type, before and after diagnosis and by phase of care (initial, continuing, terminal). Total costs incurred in 2013 were also estimated for all people diagnosed in Australia 2009–2013. Results: 7624 participants diagnosed with cancer were matched with up to three controls. The mean excess cost of care per case was AUD$1,622 for the year before diagnosis, $33,944 for the first year post-diagnosis and $8,796 for the second year post-diagnosis, with considerable variation by cancer type. Mean annual cost after the initial treatment phase was $4,474/case and the mean cost for the last year of life was $49,733/case. In 2013 the cost for cancers among people in Australia diagnosed during 2009–2013 was ~$6.3billion (0.4% of Gross Domestic Product; $272 per capita), with the largest costs for colorectal cancer ($1.1billion), breast cancer ($0.8billion), lung cancer ($0.6billion) and prostate cancer ($0.5billion). Conclusions: The cost of cancer care is substantial and varies by cancer type and time since diagnosis. These findings emphasise the economic importance of effective primary and secondary cancer prevention strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Maternity care has to be available 24 hours a day, seven days a week. It is known that obstetric intervention can influence the time of birth, but no previous analysis at a national level in England has yet investigated in detail the ways in which the day and time of birth varies by onset of labour and mode of giving birth. Method: We linked data from birth registration, birth notification, and Maternity Hospital Episode Statistics and analysed 5,093,615 singleton births in NHS maternity units in England from 2005 to 2014. We used descriptive statistics and negative binomial regression models with harmonic terms to establish how patterns of timing of birth vary by onset of labour, mode of giving birth and gestational age. Results: The timing of birth by time of day and day of the week varies considerably by onset of labour and mode of birth. Spontaneous births after spontaneous onset are more likely to occur between midnight and 6am than at other times of day, and are also slightly more likely on weekdays than at weekends and on public holidays. Elective caesarean births are concentrated onto weekday mornings. Births after induced labours are more likely to occur at hours around midnight on Tuesdays to Saturdays and on days before a public holiday period, than on Sundays, Mondays and during or just after a public holiday. Conclusion: The timing of births varies by onset of labour and mode of birth and these patterns have implications for midwifery and medical staffing. Further research is needed to understand the processes behind these findings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Between August-2016 and April-2017, Solomon Islands experienced the largest and longest-running dengue outbreak on record in the country, with 12,329 suspected cases, 877 hospitalisations and 16 deaths. We conducted a retrospective review of related data and documents, and conducted key informant interviews to characterise the event and investigate the adaptability of syndromic surveillance for enhanced and expanded data collection during a public health emergency in a low resource country setting. While the outbreak quickly consumed available public and clinical resources, we found that authorities were able to scale up the conventional national syndrome-based early warning surveillance system to support the increased information demands during the event demonstrating the flexibility of the system and syndromic surveillance more broadly. Challenges in scaling up included upskilling and assisting staff with no previous experience of the tasks required; managing large volumes of data; maintaining data quality for the duration of the outbreak; harmonising routine and enhanced surveillance data and maintaining surveillance for other diseases; producing information optimally useful for response planning; and managing staff fatigue. Solomon Islands, along with other countries of the region remains vulnerable to outbreaks of dengue and other communicable diseases. Ensuring surveillance systems are robust and able to adapt to changing demands during emergencies should be a health protection priority. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: WHO recommends antiretroviral treatment (ART) for all HIV-positive individuals. This study evaluated the association between baseline CD4 count and attrition in a cohort of HIV positive adults initiating ART at three department of health (DOH) clinics routinely providing ART at baseline CD4 counts >500cells/μL for the HPTN 071 (PopART) trial. Methods: All clients attending the DOH clinics were managed according to standard care guidelines with the exception that those starting ART outside of pertinent local guidelines signed research informed consent. DOH data on all HIV-positive adult clients recorded as having initiated ART between January 2014 and November 2015 at the three study clinics was analysed. Attrition, included clients lost to follow up or died, and was defined as ‘being three or more months late for an antiretroviral pharmacy pick-up appointment’. All clients were followed until attrition, transfer out or end May 2016. Results: A total of 2423 clients with a median baseline CD4 count of 328 cells/μL (IQR 195–468) were included of whom 631 (26.0%) experienced attrition and 140 (5.8%) were TFO. Attrition was highest during the first six months of ART (IR 38.3/100 PY; 95% CI 34.8–42.1). Higher attrition was found amongst those with baseline CD4 counts > 500 cells/μL compared to those with baseline CD4 counts of 0–500 cells/μL (aHR 1.26, 95%CI 1.05 to 1.52) This finding was confirmed on subset analyses when restricted to individuals non-pregnant at baseline and when restricted to individuals with follow up of > 12months. Conclusions: Attrition in this study was high, particularly during the first six months of treatment. Attrition was highest amongst clients starting ART at baseline CD4 counts > 500 cells/μL. Strategies to improve retention amongst ART clients, particularly those starting ART at baseline CD4 counts >500cells/μL, need strengthening. Improved monitoring of clients moving in and out of ART care and between clinics will assist in better understanding attrition and ART coverage in high burden countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Frequent changes in the epidemiology of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) occurring worldwide demand regular surveillance to study their composition and distribution in healthcare facilities. We investigated the genotypic characteristics of MRSA obtained in Kuwait hospitals to better understand their clonal distribution. Materials and methods: A total of 1,327 MRSA isolates obtained from clinical samples in 13 Kuwait hospitals from 1 January to 31 December 2016 were investigated using antibiogram, SCCmec typing, spa typing and DNA microarray. Results: The isolates belonged to six SCCmec types with the majority belonging to type IV (658; 49.5%) and type V (355; 26.7%). Two hundred and sixty-one spa types were identified with spa types t688, t304, t860, t127, t044, t311, t002, t223, t267, t019, t3841, t005, t084, t852, and t657 constituting 51.0% (n = 677) of the isolates. Among the 1,327 MRSA isolates, 102 (7.68%) isolates were identified as novel variants of internationally recognized MRSA clones. These 102 isolates were investigated further and belonged to 14 clonal complexes (CCs) with CC361 (32; 32.3%), CC30 (15; 14.7%), CC22 (13; 12.7%) and CC1 (11, 10.7%) as the dominant CCs. Eighty-one (79.4%) of the novel isolates harbored SCCmec IV or V+fusC composite genetic elements. Four isolates (3.9%) harbored unusual combinations of ccr and mec complexes comprising of CC6-MRSA [IV+fusC+ccrC], CC97-MRSA [V/VT+fusC+ccrAB2], CC121-MRSA [V/VT+fusC+ccrB4] and CC1-MRSA-pseudoSCCmec [class B mec+fusc+ccrAB1]. Forty-six (45.1%) of these isolates were positive for PVL and 89 (87.2%) were resistant to fusidic acid mediated by fusC. Conclusions: The study showed the emergence of novel variants of previously recognized MRSA genotypes with unusual genetic characteristics including high prevalence of PVL and fusidic acid resistance in Kuwait hospitals. This has added to the dynamic lists of known variations in MRSA genomes which can impose serious challenges for infection control and treatment of MRSA infections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Postpartum Family Visits (PFVs) have been advocated as a way to improve health outcomes for puerperal women and their newborns. This study aimed to identify individual factors associated with the utilization of PFVs in rural Jiangsu Province, China. Methods: We employed responses of the household survey in Jiangsu province, part of the National Health Service Survey (NHSS), a nationally representative survey in China. The data analysis framework was designed based on Andersen’s behavioral model. The outcome variables included nonuse and deficient use of PFVs, and the explanatory variables were organized into three hierarchical levels: predisposing, enabling and need factors. Univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis were conducted to examine the impact of the three hierarchical levels on PFVs utilization. Results: A total of 884 rural women who had a childbearing history in the prior five years answered PFVs questions. About 23.4% of them had never received any PFVs, and 40.4% received <3 visits. In the results of multivariate logistic regression, educational level (OR = 0.43, 95% CI: 0.24–0.77), income (OR = 0.62, 95% CI: 0.43–0.88), the distance from the nearest hospital (OR = 1.49, 95% CI: 1.07–2.07) and parity (OR = 2.17, 95% CI: 1.54–3.05) had significant relationship with nonuse. Factors significantly associated with deficient use of PFVs included employment (OR = 0.62, 95% CI: 0.39–0.98), the distance from the nearest hospital (OR = 1.73, 95% CI: 1.26–2.36), level of delivery institution (OR = 1.57, 95% CI: 1.14–2.17), and parity (OR = 1.45, 95% CI: 1.03–2.05). Conclusion: The study found lower Social Economic Status (SES), long distance with primary health institutions, and the increased need for services stemming from multi-parity reduced the likelihood of nonuse or deficient use of PFVs in rural areas. Multiparous, low SES women and those living far away from primary health institutions should be paid more attention to assure the coverage of postpartum care. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In 2009, the Western Australian (WA) Government introduced the Four-Hour Rule (FHR) program. The policy stated that most patients presenting to Emergency Departments (EDs) were to be seen and either admitted, transferred, or discharged within 4 hours. This study utilised de-identified data from five participating hospitals, before and after FHR implementation, to assess the impact of the FHR on several areas of ED functioning. Methods: A state (WA) population-based intervention study design, using longitudinal data obtained from administrative health databases via record linkage methodology, and interrupted time series analysis technique. Findings: There were 3,214,802 ED presentations, corresponding to 1,203,513 ED patients. After the FHR implementation, access block for patients admitted through ED for all five sites showed a significant reduction of up to 13.2% (Rate Ratio 0.868, 95%CI 0.814, 0.925) per quarter. Rate of ED attendances for most hospitals continued to rise throughout the entire study period and were unaffected by the FHR, except for one hospital. Pattern of change in ED re-attendance rate post-FHR was similar to pre-FHR, but the trend reduced for two hospitals. ED occupancy was reduced by 6.2% per quarter post-FHR for the most ‘crowded’ ED. ED length of stay and ED efficiency improved in four hospitals and deteriorated in one hospital. Time to being seen by ED clinician and Did-Not-Wait rate improved for some hospitals. Admission rates in post-FHR increased, by up to 1% per quarter, for two hospitals where the pre-FHR trend was decreasing. Conclusions: The FHR had a consistent effect on ‘flow’ measures: significantly reducing ED overcrowding and access block and enhancing ED efficiency. Time-based outcome measures mostly improved with the FHR. There is some evidence of increased ED attendance, but no evidence of increased ED re-attendance. Effects on patient disposition status were mixed. Overall, this reflects the value of investing resources into the ED/hospital system to improve efficiency and patient experience. Further research is required to illuminate the exact mechanisms of the effects of FHR on the ED and hospital functioning across Australia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Trauma is a global burden of disease and one of the main causes of death worldwide. Therefore, many countries around the world have implemented a wide range of different initiatives to minimize mortality rates after trauma. One of these initiatives is the bundling of treatment expertise in trauma centers and the establishment of trauma networks. Germany has a decentralized system of trauma care medical centers. Severely injured patients ought to receive adequate treatment in both level I and level II centers. This study investigated the effectiveness of a decentralized network and the question whether level I and level II centers have comparable patient outcome. Materials and methods: In 2009, the first trauma network DGU® in Germany was certified in the rural area of Eastern Bavaria. All patients admitted to the 25 participating hospitals were prospectively included in this network in the framework of a study sponsored by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research between March 2012 and February 2014. 2 hospitals were level I centers (maximal care centers), 8 hospitals were level II centers, and 15 hospitals were level III centers. The criterion for study inclusion was an injury severity score (ISS) ≥ 16 for patients´ primarily admitted to a level I or a level II center. Exclusion criteria were transferal to another hospital within 48 h, an unknown revised injury severity classification II score (RISC II), or primary admittance to a level III center (n = 52). 875 patients were included in the study. Univariate analyses were used regarding the preclinical and clinical parameters, the primary endpoint mortality rate, and the secondary endpoints length of stay, organ failure, and neurological outcome (GOS). The primary endpoint was additionally evaluated by means of multivariable analysis. Results: Indices for injury severity (GCS, AISHead, ISS, and NISS) as well as the predicted probability of death (RISC II) were higher in level I centers than in level II centers. No significant differences were found between the mortality rate of the unadjusted analysis [level I: 21.6% (CI: 16.5, 27.9), level II: 18.1% (CI: 14.4, 22.5), p = 0.28] and that of the adjusted analysis [level I SMR: 0.94 (CI: 0.72, 1.21), level II SMR: 1.18 (CI 0.95, 1.48) SMR: expected vs. calculated mortality rate according to RISC II]. Multivariable analysis showed a survival advantage of patients admitted to a level I center with a probability of death of 13% (RISC II). The number need to treat was 10 patients. Discussion: This study showed that a rural trauma network with centralized and local structures may achieve equivalent results with regard to mortality rates to those obtained in level I and level II centers. These results were furthered by a certain preclinical centralization (24/7 air rescue) of patients. The study also showed a survival advantage of patients admitted to a level I center with a probability of death of 13%. Preclinical and initial clinical evaluation with regard to probable mortality rates should be further improved to identify patients who would benefit from admittance to a level I center. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Informing health systems and monitoring hospital performances using administrative data sets, mainly hospital discharge data coded according to International-Classification-Diseases-9edition-Clinical-Modifiers (ICD9-CM), is now commonplace in several countries, but the reliability of diagnostic coding of acute ischemic stroke in the routine practice is uncertain. This study aimed at estimating accuracy of ICD9-CM codes for the identification of acute ischemic stroke and the use of thrombolysis treatment comparing hospital discharge data with medical record review in all the six hospitals of the Florence Area, Italy, through 2015. Methods: We reviewed the medical records of all the 3915 potential acute stroke events during 2015 across the six hospitals of the Florence Area, Italy. We then estimated sensitivity and Positive Predictive Value of ICD9-CM code-groups 433*1, 434*1 and thrombolysis code 99.10 against medical record review with clinical adjudication. For each false-positive case we obtained the actual diagnosis. For each false-negative case we obtained the primary and secondary ICD9-CM diagnoses. Results: The medical record review identified 1273 acute ischemic stroke events. The hospital discharge records identified 898 among those (true-positive cases),but missed 375 events (false-negative cases), and identified 104 events that were not eventually confirmed as acute ischemic events (false-positive cases). Code-group specific Positive Predictive Value was 85.7% (95%CI,74.6–93.3) for 433*1 and 89.9% (95%CI, 87.8–91.7) for 434*1 codes. Thrombolysis treatment, as identified by ICD9-CM code 99.10, was only documented in 6.0% of acute ischemic stroke events, but was 13.6% in medical record review. Conclusions: Hospital discharge data were found to be fairly specific but insensitive in the reporting of acute ischemic stroke and thrombolysis, providing misleading indications about both quantity and quality of acute ischemic stroke hospital care. Efforts to improve coding accuracy should precede the use of hospital discharge data to measure hospital performances in acute ischemic stroke care. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: Bicyclists and motorcyclists contribute substantially to the morbidity and mortality rates of road crash casualties. The objective of the study was to investigate the crash characteristics of bicyclist and motorcyclist casualties presented to hospitals in Taiwan resulting from crashes. Methods: By using linked data from The National Traffic Crash Dataset and the National Health Insurance Database between 2003 and 2012, logistic regression models were used to examine the determinants of hospitalisation among motorcyclist and bicyclist casualties. The examined variables include demographic characteristics, road and weather conditions, and vehicle characteristics. Results: A total of 1,998,606 two-wheelers were enrolled in the study, of whom 216,600 were hospitalised: 203,623 were motorcyclists and 12,964 were bicyclists. Bicyclists were more likely to be hospitalised than motorcyclists were (14.0% vs. 10.7%). The pooled logistic regression model shows that bicyclists had higher odds of hospitalisation than motorcyclists (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 1.11, 95% confident interval [CI] = 1.08–1.14). In the motorcyclist and bicyclist models, helmet non-use appears to be a determinant of hospitalisation for motorcyclists (AOR = 1.14, CI = 1.12–1.16), although insignificant for cyclists (AOR = 1.03, CI = 0.94–1.12). Other important determinants of hospitalisation for motorcyclists and cyclists include female riders, elderly riders, rural roadways, unlicensed riding (for motorcyclists only), curved roadways, defective roadways, alcohol consumption (only for motorcyclists), and single-vehicle crashes (for motorcyclists only). Conclusions: The result that bicyclists had an increased probability of being hospitalised than motorcyclists is particularly noteworthy, because there have recently been much more users of bikesharing systems in metropolitan cities where cycle helmets are not provided. We further found that helmet non-use was also a risk factor for motorcyclists, but insignificant for cyclists, possibly due to lower helmet utilization rates among bicyclists. Our findings regarding the increased hospitalisation percentage emphasize the importance of helmet use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: HIV testing is an important tool in the management of the HIV epidemic among key populations. We aimed to explore the dynamic of first-time HIV testing in France for sub-Saharan migrants after their arrival. Methods: ANRS-Parcours is a retrospective life-event survey conducted from 2012 to 2013 in healthcare facilities in the Paris region, among 926 sub-Saharan HIV-infected migrants and 763 non-infected migrants. After describing the time to first HIV test in France and associated circumstances, we performed a discrete-time logistic regression to analyze the influence of socioeconomic position, contact with the healthcare system and sexual behaviors, on first-time HIV testing in France in migrants who arrived after 2000. Results: Median first-time HIV testing occurred during the second year spent in France for non-infected men and women in both groups, and during the first year for men of the HIV group. The probability of testing increased with hospitalization and pregnancy for women of both groups. For non-infected men unemployment and absence of a residence permit were associated with an increased probability of HIV testing [respectively, OR = 2.2 (1.2–4.1) and OR = 2.0 (1.1–3.5)]. Unemployment was also associated with an increased probability of first-time HIV-testing for women of the HIV group [OR: 1.7 (1.0–2.7)]. Occasional and multiple sexual relationships were associated with an increased probability of first-time testing only for HIV-infected women [OR: 2.2 (1.2–4.0) and OR = 2.4 (1.3–4.6)]. Conclusion: Access to first HIV testing in France is promoted by contact with the health care system and is facilitated for unemployed and undocumented migrants after arrival.However, testing should be offered more systematically and repeated in order to reduce time between HIV infection and diagnosis, especially for deprived people which are particularly vulnerable regarding HIV infection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The European General Practitioners Research Network (EGPRN) designed and validated a comprehensive definition of multimorbidity using a systematic literature review and qualitative research throughout Europe. This definition was tested as a model to assess death or acute hospitalization in multimorbid outpatients. Objective: To assess which criteria in the EGPRN concept of multimorbidity could detect outpatients at risk of death or acute hospitalization in a primary care cohort at a 6-month follow-up and to assess whether a large scale cohort with FPs would be feasible. Method: Family Physicians included a random sample of multimorbid patients who attended appointments in their offices from July to December 2014. Inclusion criteria were those of the EGPRN definition of Multimorbidity. Exclusion criteria were patients under legal protection and those unable to complete the 2-year follow-up. Statistical analysis was undertaken with uni- and multivariate analysis at a 6-month follow-up using a combination of approaches including both automatic classification and expert decision making. A Multiple Correspondence Analysis (MCA) completed the process with a projection of illustrative variables. A logistic regression was finally performed in order to identify and quantify risk factors for decompensation. Results: 19 FPs participated in the study. 96 patients were analyzed. 3 different clusters were identified. MCA showed the central function of psychosocial factors and peaceful versus conflictual relationships with relatives in all clusters. While taking into account the limit of a small cohort, age, frequency of family physician visits and extent of family difficulties were the factors which predicted death or acute hospitalization. Conclusion: A large scale cohort seems feasible in primary care. A sense of alarm should be triggered to prevent death or acute hospitalization in multimorbid older outpatients who have frequent family physician visits and who experience family difficulties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Delayed notification and lack of early information hinder timely hospital based activations in large scale multiple casualty events. We hypothesized that Twitter real-time data would produce a unique and reproducible signal within minutes of multiple casualty events and we investigated the timing of the signal compared with other hospital disaster notification mechanisms. Methods: Using disaster specific search terms, all relevant tweets from the event to 7 days post-event were analyzed for 5 recent US based multiple casualty events (Boston Bombing [BB], SF Plane Crash [SF], Napa Earthquake [NE], Sandy Hook [SH], and Marysville Shooting [MV]). Quantitative and qualitative analysis of tweet utilization were compared across events. Results: Over 3.8 million tweets were analyzed (SH 1.8 m, BB 1.1m, SF 430k, MV 250k, NE 205k). Peak tweets per min ranged from 209–3326. The mean followers per tweeter ranged from 3382–9992 across events. Retweets were tweeted a mean of 82–564 times per event. Tweets occurred very rapidly for all events (<2 mins) and represented 1% of the total event specific tweets in a median of 13 minutes of the first 911 calls. A 200 tweets/min threshold was reached fastest with NE (2 min), BB (7 min), and SF (18 mins). If this threshold was utilized as a signaling mechanism to place local hospitals on standby for possible large scale events, in all case studies, this signal would have preceded patient arrival. Importantly, this threshold for signaling would also have preceded traditional disaster notification mechanisms in SF, NE, and simultaneous with BB and MV. Conclusions: Social media data has demonstrated that this mechanism is a powerful, predictable, and potentially important resource for optimizing disaster response. Further investigated is warranted to assess the utility of prospective signally thresholds for hospital based activation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Rotavirus is a leading cause of diarrhoeal mortality in children but there is considerable disagreement about how many deaths occur each year. Methods and findings: We compared CHERG, GBD and WHO/CDC estimates of age under 5 years (U5) rotavirus deaths at the global, regional and national level using a standard year (2013) and standard list of 186 countries. The global estimates were 157,398 (CHERG), 122,322 (GBD) and 215,757 (WHO/CDC). The three groups used different methods: (i) to select data points for rotavirus-positive proportions; (ii) to extrapolate data points to individual countries; (iii) to account for rotavirus vaccine coverage; (iv) to convert rotavirus-positive proportions to rotavirus attributable fractions; and (v) to calculate uncertainty ranges. We conducted new analyses to inform future estimates. We found that acute watery diarrhoea was associated with 87% (95% CI 83–90%) of U5 diarrhoea hospitalisations based on data from 84 hospital sites in 9 countries, and 65% (95% CI 57–74%) of U5 diarrhoea deaths based on verbal autopsy reports from 9 country sites. We reanalysed data from the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS) and found 44% (55% in Asia, and 32% in Africa) rotavirus-positivity among U5 acute watery diarrhoea hospitalisations, and 28% rotavirus-positivity among U5 acute watery diarrhoea deaths. 97% (95% CI 95–98%) of the U5 diarrhoea hospitalisations that tested positive for rotavirus were entirely attributable to rotavirus. For all clinical syndromes combined the rotavirus attributable fraction was 34% (95% CI 31–36%). This increased by a factor of 1.08 (95% CI 1.02–1.14) when the GEMS results were reanalysed using a more sensitive molecular test. Conclusions: We developed consensus on seven proposals for improving the quality and transparency of future rotavirus mortality estimates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The epidemiology of human parechovirus (HPeV) in Asia remains obscure. We elucidated the prevalence, seasonality, type distribution and clinical presentation of HPeV among children in Hong Kong. Methods: A 24-month prospective study to detect HPeV in children ≤36 months hospitalized for acute viral illnesses. Results: 2.3% of the 3911 children examined had HPeV infection, with most (87.5%) concentrated in September-January (autumn-winter). 81.3% were HPeV1 and 12.5% were HPeV4, while HPeV3 was rare (2.5%). HPeV was a probable cause of the disease in 47.7% (42/88), mostly self-limiting including acute gastroenteritis, upper respiratory tract infection and maculopapular rash. A neonate developed severe sepsis-like illness with HPeV3 as the only pathogen detected. A high proportion (60.0%) of children coinfected with HPeV and other respiratory virus(es) had acute bronchiolitis or pneumonia. Six children with HPeV coinfections developed convulsion / pallid attack. Most rash illnesses exhibited a generalized maculopapular pattern involving the trunk and limbs, and were more likely associated with HPeV4 compared to other syndrome groups (36.4% vs. 3.1%, p = 0.011). Conclusions: In Hong Kong, HPeV exhibits a clear seasonality (autumn-winter) and was found in a small proportion (2.3%) of young children (≤36 months) admitted with features of acute viral illnesses. The clinical presentation ranged from mild gastroenteritis, upper respiratory tract infection and febrile rash to convulsion and severe sepsis-like illness. HPeV3, which is reported to associate with more severe disease in neonates, is rare in Hong Kong. HPeV coinfection might associate with convulsion and aggravate other respiratory tract infections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Three variant formulations of a spatiotemporal shared component model are proposed that allow examination of changes in shared underlying factors over time. Methods: Models are evaluated within the context of a case study examining hospitalisation rates for five chronic diseases for residents of a regional area in New South Wales: type II diabetes mellitus (DMII), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), coronary arterial disease (CAD), hypertension (HT) and congestive heart failure (CHF) between 2001–2006. These represent ambulatory care sensitive (ACS) conditions, often used as a proxy for avoidable hospitalisations. Using a selected model, the effects of socio-economic status (SES) as a shared component are estimated and temporal patterns in the influence of the residual shared spatial component are examined. Results: Choice of model depends upon the application. In the featured application, a model allowing for changing influence of the shared spatial component over time was found to have the best fit and was selected for further analyses. Hospitalisation rates were found to be increasing for COPD and DMII, decreasing for CHF and stable for CAD and HT. SES was substantively associated with hospitalisation rates, with differing degrees of influence for each disease. In general, most of the spatial variation in hospitalisation rates was explained by disease-specific spatial components, followed by the residual shared spatial component. Conclusion: Appropriate selection of a joint disease model allows for the examination of temporal patterns of disease outcomes and shared underlying spatial factors, and distinction between different shared spatial factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main objective of this study was to apply the non-parametric method of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to measure the efficiency of Greek NHS hospitals between 2009–2013. Hospitals were divided into four separate groups with common characteristics which allowed comparisons to be carried out in the context of increased homogeneity. The window-DEA method was chosen since it leads to increased discrimination on the results especially when applied to small samples and it enables year-by-year comparisons of the results. Three inputs -hospital beds, physicians and other health professionals- and three outputs—hospitalized cases, surgeries and outpatient visits- were chosen as production variables in an input-oriented 2-year window DEA model for the assessment of technical and scale efficiency as well as for the identification of returns to scale. The Malmquist productivity index together with its components (i.e. pure technical efficiency change, scale efficiency change and technological scale) were also calculated in order to analyze the sources of productivity change between the first and last year of the study period. In the context of window analysis, the study identified the individual efficiency trends together with “all-windows” best and worst performers and revealed that a high level of technical and scale efficiency was maintained over the entire 5-year period. Similarly, the relevant findings of Malmquist productivity index analysis showed that both scale and pure technical efficiency were improved in 2013 whilst technological change was found to be in favor of the two groups with the largest hospitals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: End of life (EOL) care is associated with greater costs, particularly for acute care services. In patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), EOL costs may be accentuated due to reliance on hospital-based services and expensive diagnostic tests and treatments. We aimed to compare EOL health care use and costs between IBD and non-IBD decedents. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of all decedents of Ontario, Canada between 2010 and 2013 using linked health administrative data. IBD (N = 2,214) and non-IBD (N = 262,540) decedents were compared on total direct health care costs in the last year of life and hospitalization time during the last 90 days of life. Results: During the last 90 days of life, IBD patients spent an average of 16 days in hospital, equal to 2.1 greater adjusted hospital days (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.5–2.8 days) than non-IBD patients. IBD diagnosis was associated with $7,210 CAD (95% CI $5,005 - $9,464) higher adjusted per-patient cost in the last year of life, of which 76% was due to excess hospitalization costs. EOL cost of IBD care was higher than 15 of 16 studied chronic conditions. Health care costs rose sharply in the last 90 days of life, primarily due to escalating hospitalization costs. Conclusions: IBD patients spend more time in hospital and incur substantially greater health care costs than other decedents as they approach the EOL. These excess costs could be curtailed through avoidance of unnecessary hospitalizations and expensive treatments in the setting of irreversible deterioration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: This study has been conducted to throw light on the knowledge and practices related to dengue fever among the poor population living in Delhi’s slums. Materials: A household survey was conducted in 2013 among 3,350 households. The households were stratified by a number of variables related to socio-economic status and health events such as hospitalisation. The data collection was completed through face-to-face interviews conducted with the help of 25 field investigators. Results: About 8% of the households had at least one diagnosed dengue case. In comparison to the population surveyed, teenagers (15–19 years) and adults (30–34 years) were more affected whereas children under four years of age were underrepresented. Housewives are more affected by dengue (24%) compared to their share of the population surveyed (17%). Despite the fact that 77% of the respondents are worried about mosquitoes, only 43% of them monitor environment to avoid the presence of breeding sites. Conclusion: One cannot exclude the possibility that though young children under the age of four years are exposed to the virus, either their cases were asymptomatic or family members infected during this period had potentially more serious symptoms leading to hospitalisation. This result could thus be explained by budget-related health choices made by this population which do not favour small children. Educational programs should target housewives to improve their impact, as they are the ones mostly responsible for water storage and cleanliness of the house and its neighbourhood. Even with a dengue experience and potentially an acute perception of the risk and its factors, a proper management of environmental conditions is lacking. This along with the fact that word-of-mouth is the main source of information quoted should be a message for municipality health workers to give door-to-door information on how to prevent breeding sites and dengue infection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: We implemented a hospital-based prevention with positives (PwP) intervention among people living with HIV (PLHIV) that included HIV transmission risk screening, short HIV prevention messages, family planning, HIV disclosure counseling, and partner HIV testing at five hospitals in Thailand. We assessed changes in sexual risk behaviors among PLHIV who received the PwP services at the hospitals. Methods: From January 2008-March 2009, we systematically selected a subset of PLHIV receiving care at the five hospitals to offer participation in the PwP intervention. We collected demographic, risk behavior, and laboratory data using a standardized questionnaire. We analyzed data from PLHIV who completed at least four visits, using generalized estimating equations to identify baseline participant characteristics that were associated with adopting sexual practices less likely to be associated with HIV transmission during follow-up. Results: A total of 830 PLHIV were interviewed and 756 (91.1%) completed four visits. The median age of these 756 participants was 37 years, 400 (52.9%) were women, and 475 (62.8%) had a steady partner. At baseline, 353 (74.3%) of the steady partners had been tested for HIV and 132 (37.4%) had tested negative. Among the 756 PLHIV, 427 (56.5%) reported having sex in the 3 months before enrollment and 413 (54.6%) in the 3 months before the fourth visit. The proportion reporting having vaginal or anal sex without a condom decreased from 20.8% at baseline to 5.1% at the fourth visit (p<0.001). Factors associated (p<0.05) with abstinence or 100% condom use at follow-up visits included: completing ≥ two visits, being diagnosed with HIV for longer than 3 months, and receiving HIV prevention messages from a doctor (versus a nurse or counselor). Conclusion: Safe sex behaviors increased among PLHIV receiving PwP services, suggesting that expansion of hospital-based PwP services may reduce the number of new HIV infections in Thailand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The epidemic of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in low and middle income countries (LMICs) is widely recognised as the next major challenge to global health. However, in many LMICs, infectious diseases are still prevalent resulting in a “double burden” of disease. With increased life expectancy and longevity with HIV, older adults may particularly be at risk of this double burden. Here we describe the relative contributions of infections and NCDs to hospital admissions and mortality, according to age, in Malawi’s largest hospital. Methods: Primary diagnosis on discharge/death, mortality rates, and HIV status were recorded prospectively on consecutive adult medical in-patients over 2 years using an electronic medical records system. Diagnoses were classified as infections or NCDs and analysed according to age and gender. Findings: 10,191 records were analysed. Overall, infectious diseases, particularly those associated with HIV, were the leading cause of admission. However, in adults ≥55 years, NCDs were the commonest diagnoses. In adults <55 years 71% of deaths were due to infections whereas in adults ≥55 years 56% of deaths were due to NCDs. Interpretation: Infectious diseases are still the leading cause of adult admission to a central hospital in Malawi but in adults aged ≥55 years NCDs are the most frequent diagnoses. HIV was an underlying factor in the majority of adults with infections and was also present in 53% of those with NCDs. These findings highlight the need for further health sector shifts to address the double burden of infectious and NCDs, particularly in the ageing population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Emerging evidence from the virtual ward care model showed that multidisciplinary case management are inadequate to reduce readmissions or death for high risk patients. There is consensus that interventions should encompass both pre-hospital discharge and post-discharge transitional care to be effective. Integrated practice units (IPU) had been proposed as an approach of restructuring the organization and work processes of multidisciplinary teams to achieve value in healthcare. Our primary objective is to evaluate if the novel application of the IPU concept to organize a modified virtual ward model incorporating pre-hospital discharge transitional care can reduce readmissions of patients at highest risk for readmission. Methods: We conducted an open label, assessor blinded randomized controlled trial on patients with one or more unscheduled readmissions in the prior 90 days and LACE score ≥ 10. 840 patients were randomized in 1:1 ratio and blocks of 6 to the intervention program (n = 420) or control (n = 420). Allocation concealment was effected via an off-site telephone service maintained by a hospital administrator. Intervention patients received discharge planning, medication reconciliation, coaching on self-management of chronic diseases using standardized action plans and an individualized care plan complete with written discharge instructions, appointments schedule, medication changes and the contact information of the outpatient VW nurse before discharge. At discharge, care is handed over to the outpatient VW team. Patients were closely monitored in the VW for three months that included a telephone review within 72 hours of discharge, home assessment, regular telephone reviews to identify early complications and early review clinics for patients who destabilize. The VW meet daily to discuss new patients and review care plans for patients. Control patients received standard hospital care that included a standardized patient copy of the hospital discharge summary listing their medical diagnoses and medications; and follow up is arranged with a primary care provider or specialist as considered necessary. The primary outcome was the unplanned readmission rate to any hospital within 30 days of discharge. Secondary outcomes included the unplanned readmission rate, emergency department (ED) attendance rate to any hospital and the probability without readmission or death up to 180 days of discharge. Length of stay and mortality rate at 90-day were compared between the two groups. Outcome data were objectively retrieved from the hospital and National Electronic Health Records by a blinded outcome assessor. Findings: All patients’ outcomes were included in an intention-to-treat analysis. The characteristics of both study groups were similar. Patients in the intervention group had a significant reduction in the number of 30-day readmissions, IRR 0.67 (95% CI, 0.52 to 0.86, p = 0.001) and the number of 30-day emergency department attendances, IRR 0.60 (95% CI, 0.46 to 0.79, p<0.001) compared to those receiving standard hospital care. The effectiveness was sustained at 90 and 180 days. The intervention group utilized 1164 fewer hospital bed days at 90-day post discharge. No adverse events were reported. Conclusion: Applying the integrated practice unit concept to the virtual ward program resulted in reduced readmissions in patients who are at highest risk of readmission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Several Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries have introduced pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV-10 or PCV-13) in their routine national immunization programs. Objectives: We aimed to summarize the evidence of PCV impact and effectiveness in children under 5 years old in the LAC Region. Methods: We conducted a systematic review of the literature on impact or effectiveness of PCVs on deaths or hospitalizations due to invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD), pneumonia, meningitis and sepsis. We searched Medline, WoS, Lilacs, Scopus, Central and gray literature published in any language from 2009 to January 2016. We included studies addressing the outcomes of interest in children in the target age group, and with the following designs: randomized trials, cohort or case-control, interrupted time series with at least three data points before and after the intervention, and before-after studies. Screening of citations, data extraction, and risk of bias assessment were conducted in duplicate by independent reviewers, according to the study protocol registered on PROSPERO. Descriptive analysis of the effectiveness measurements and sensitivity analysis were conducted. Effectiveness is reported as 1-OR or 1-RR for case control or cohort/clinical trials, and as percent change of disease incidence rates for before-after studies. Results: We identified 1,085 citations, 892 from databases and 193 from other sources. Of these, 22 were further analyzed. Studies were from Brazil, Chile, Uruguay, Argentina, Peru and Nicaragua. Effectiveness ranged from 8.8–37.8% for hospitalizations due to X-ray confirmed pneumonia, 7.4–20.6% for clinical pneumonia, and 13.3–87.7% for meningitis hospitalizations, and 56–83.3% for IPD hospitalization, varying by age, outcome definition, type of vaccine and study design. Conclusions: Available evidence to date indicates significant impact of both PCV-10 and PCV-13 in the outcomes studied, with no evidence of the superiority of one vaccine over the other on pneumonia, IPD or meningitis hospitalization reduction in children under 5 years old. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To determine the data sources and ‘look back’ intervals to define comorbidities. Data Sources: Hospital discharge abstracts database (DAD), physician claims, population registry and death registry from April 1, 1994 to March 31, 2010 in Alberta, Canada. Study Design: Newly-diagnosed hypertension cases from 1997 to 2008 fiscal years were identified and followed up to 12 years. We defined comorbidities using data sources and duration of retrospective observation (6 months, 1 year, 2 years, and 3 years). The C-statistics for logistic regression and concordance index (CI) for Cox model of mortality and cardiovascular disease hospitalization were used to evaluate discrimination performance for each approach of defining comorbidities. Principal Findings: The comorbidities prevalence became higher with a longer duration. Using DAD alone underestimated the prevalence by about 75%, compared to using both DAD and physician claims. The C-statistic and CI were highest when both DAD and physician claims were used, and model performance improved when observation duration increased from 6 months to one year or longer. Conclusion: The comorbidities prevalence is greatly impacted by the data source and duration of retrospective observation. A combination of DAD and physicians claims with at least one year observation duration improves predictions for cardiovascular disease and one-year mortality outcome model performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To document clinical outcomes and women’s experiences following the introduction of mifepristone into South African public sector second-trimester medical abortion services, and compare with historic cohorts receiving misoprostol-only. Methods: Repeated cross-sectional observational studies documented service delivery and experiences of women undergoing second-trimester medical abortion in public sector hospitals in the Western Cape, South Africa. Women recruited to the study in 2008 (n = 84) and 2010 (n = 58) received misoprostol only. Those recruited in 2014 (n = 208) received mifepristone and misoprostol. Consenting women were interviewed during hospitalization by study fieldworkers with respect to socio-demographic information, reproductive history, and their experiences with the abortion. Clinical details were extracted from medical charts following discharge. Telephone follow-up interviews to record delayed complications were conducted 2–4 weeks after discharge for the 2014 cohort. Results: The 2014 cohort received 200 mg mifepristone, which was self-administered 24–48 hours prior to admission. For all cohorts, following hospital admission, initial misoprostol doses were generally administered vaginally: 800 mcg in the 2014 cohort and 600 mcg in the earlier cohorts. Women received subsequent doses of misoprostol 400 mcg orally every 3–4 hours until fetal expulsion. Thereafter, uterine evacuation of placental tissue was performed as needed. With one exception, all women in all cohorts expelled the fetus. Median time-to-fetal expulsion was reduced to 8.0 hours from 14.5 hours (p<0.001) in the mifepristone compared to the 2010 misoprostol-only cohort (time of fetal expulsion was not recorded in 2008). Uterine evacuation of placental tissue using curettage or vacuum aspiration was more often performed (76% vs. 58%, p<0.001) for those receiving mifepristone; major complication rates were unchanged. Hospitalization duration and extreme pain levels were reduced (p<0.001), but side effects of medication were similar or more common for the mifepristone cohort. Overall satisfaction remained unchanged (95% vs. 91%), while other acceptability measures were higher (p<0.001) for the mifepristone compared to the misoprostol-only cohorts. Conclusion: The introduction of a combined mifepristone-misoprostol regimen into public sector second-trimester medical abortion services in South Africa has been successful with shorter time-to-abortion events, less extreme pain and greater acceptability for women. High rates of uterine evacuation for placental tissue need to be addressed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While influenza A viruses comprise a heterogeneous group of clinically relevant influenza viruses, influenza B viruses form a more homogeneous cluster, divided mainly into two lineages: Victoria and Yamagata. This divergence has complicated seasonal influenza vaccine design, which traditionally contained two seasonal influenza A virus strains and one influenza B virus strain. We examined the distribution of the two influenza B virus lineages in Israel, between 2011–2014, in hospitalized and in non-hospitalized (community) influenza B virus-infected patients. We showed that influenza B virus infections can lead to hospitalization and demonstrated that during some winter seasons, both influenza B virus lineages circulated simultaneously in Israel. We further show that the influenza B virus Yamagata lineage was dominant, circulating in the county in the last few years of the study period, consistent with the anti-Yamagata influenza B virus antibodies detected in the serum samples of affected individuals residing in Israel in the year 2014. Interestingly, we found that elderly people were particularly vulnerable to Yamagata lineage influenza B virus infections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: In France, rates of hospital admissions increase at the peaks of influenza epidemics. Predicting influenza-associated hospitalizations could help to anticipate increased hospital activity. The purpose of this study is to identify predictors of influenza epidemics through the analysis of meteorological data, and medical data provided by general practitioners. Methods: Historical data were collected from Meteo France, the Sentinelles network and hospitals’ information systems for a period of 8 years (2007–2015). First, connections between meteorological and medical data were estimated with the Pearson correlation coefficient, Principal component analysis and classification methods (Ward and k-means). Epidemic states of tested weeks were then predicted for each week during a one-year period using linear discriminant analysis. Finally, transition probabilities between epidemic states were calculated with the Markov Chain method. Results: High correlations were found between influenza-associated hospitalizations and the variables: Sentinelles and emergency department admissions, and anti-correlations were found between hospitalizations and each of meteorological factors applying a time lag of: -13, -12 and -32 days respectively for temperature, absolute humidity and solar radiation. Epidemic weeks were predicted accurately with the linear discriminant analysis method; however there were many misclassifications about intermediate and non-epidemic weeks. Transition probability to an epidemic state was 100% when meteorological variables were below: 2°C, 4 g/m3 and 32 W/m2, respectively for temperature, absolute humidity and solar radiation. This probability was 0% when meteorological variables were above: 6°C, 5.8g/m3 and 74W/m2. Conclusion: These results confirm a good correlation between influenza-associated hospitalizations, meteorological factors and general practitioner’s activity, the latter being the strongest predictor of hospital activity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dengue used to be recognized as an imported and sporadic disease in China. Since June 2014, an unexpected large dengue outbreak has attacked Guangzhou, China, resulting in more than 40,000 cases. Among the 1,942 laboratory-confirmed hospitalized dengue cases, 121 were diagnosed as severe dengue according to the 2009 WHO guideline, and 2 patients finally died. Laboratory diagnosis and virus isolation demonstrated that the majority (96%) cases were caused by dengue virus serotype 1 (DENV-1), and the others by serotype 2 (DENV-2). 14 DENV strains were isolated from the sera of acute-phase dengue patients during this outbreak, and the complete envelope (E) gene of 12 DENV-1 strains and two DENV-2 strains were determined using RT-PCR assay. Phylogenetic analysis based on the E gene revealed the DENV-1 strains isolated during the outbreak belonged to genotype I and V, respectively. These isolates formed three clades. DENV-2 isolates were assigned to the same clade belonging to genotype cosmopolitan. These strains isolated in 2014 were closely related to the isolates obtained from the same province, Guangdong, in 2013. No amino acid mutations known to increase virulence were identified throughout the E protein of isolates in 2014. These results indicate that dengue is turning into endemic in Guangdong, China, and extensive seroepidemiological investigation and mosquito control measures are critically needed in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To evaluate the direct and indirect population impact of rotavirus (RV) immunization on hospitalizations and emergency department (ED) visits for acute gastroenteritis (AGE) in Ontario before and after the publicly-funded RV immunization program. Methods: Administrative data was used to identify ED visits and hospitalizations for all Ontarians using ICD-10 codes. We used two outcome definitions: RV-specific AGE (RV-AGE) and codes representing RV-, other viral and cause unspecified AGE (“overall AGE”). The pre-program and public program periods were August 1, 2005 to July 31, 2011; and August 1, 2011 to March 31, 2013, respectively. A negative binominal regression model that included the effect of time was used to calculate rates and rate ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for RV-AGE and overall AGE between periods, after adjusting for age, seasonality and secular trends. Analyses were conducted for all ages combined and age stratified. Results: Relative to the pre-program period, the adjusted RRs for RV-AGE and overall AGE hospitalizations in the public program period were 0.29 (95%CI: 0.22–0.39) and 0.68 (95%CI: 0.62–0.75), respectively. Significant reductions in RV-AGE hospitalizations were noted overall and for the following age bands: < 12 months, 12–23 months, 24–35 months, 3–4 years, and 5–19 years. Significant declines in overall AGE hospitalizations were observed across all age bands, including older adults > = 65 years (RR 0.80, 95%CI: 0.72–0.90). The program was associated with adjusted RRs of 0.32 (95% CI: 0.20–0.52) for RV-AGE ED visits and 0.90 (95% CI: 0.85–0.96) for overall AGE ED visits. Conclusions: This large, population-based study provides evidence of the impact of RV vaccine in preventing hospitalizations and ED visits for RV-AGE and overall AGE, including herd effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]